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Dithizone method for determination of lead in monazite

In the determination of lead in monazite-to be used as the basis for geologic age measurements-it was necessary to eliminate interferences due to the presence of phosphates of thorium and the rare earth metals. The method involves attacking the monazite samples with hot, concentrated sulfuric acid, then taking them up with dilute nitric acid. Lead is extracted as the dithizonate and determined spectrophotometrically at 520 mµ. Rapid determinations were made with good reproducibility on a series of monazite samples.

Analytical Chemistry↗

Expanding national-scale wildlife disease surveillance systems with research networks

Efficient learning about disease dynamics in free-ranging wildlife systems can benefit from active surveillance that is standardized across different ecological contexts. For example, active surveillance that targets specific individuals and populations with standardized sampling across ecological contexts (landscape-scale targeted surveillance) is important for developing a mechanistic understanding of disease emergence, which is the foundation for improving risk assessment of zoonotic or wildlife-livestock disease outbreaks and predicting hotspots of disease emergence. However, landscape-scale targeted surveillance systems are rare and challenging to implement. Increasing experience and infrastructure for landscape-scale targeted surveillance will improve readiness for rapid deployment of this type of surveillance in response to new disease emergence events. Here, we describe our experience developing and rapidly deploying a landscape-scale targeted surveillance system for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in two free-ranging deer species across their ranges in the United States. Our surveillance system was designed to collect data across individual, population, and landscape scales for future analyses aimed at understanding mechanisms and risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, evolution, and persistence. Our approach leveraged partnerships between state and federal public service sectors and academic researchers in a landscape-scale targeted surveillance research network. Methods describe our approach to developing the surveillance network and sampling design. Results report challenges with implementing our intended sampling design, specifically how the design was adapted as different challenges arose and summarize the sampling design that has been implemented thus far. In the discussion, we describe strategies that were important for the successful deployment of landscape-scale targeted surveillance, development and operation of the research network, construction of similar networks in the future, and analytical approaches for the data based on the sampling design.

Ecology and Evolution↗

Determination of trace levels of herbicides and their degradation products in surface and ground waters by gas chromatography/ion-trap mass spectrometry

A rapid, specific and highly sensitive method is described for the determination of several commonly used herbicides and their degradation products in surface and ground waters by using gas chromatography/ion-trap mass spectrometry. The compounds included atrazine, and its degradation products desethylatrazine and desisopropylatrazine; Simazine; Cyanazine; Metolachlor; and alachlor and its degradation products, 2-chloro-2', 6'-diethylacetanilide, 2-hydroxy-2', 6'-diethylacetanilide and 2,6-diethylaniline. The method was applied to surface-water samples collected from 16 different stations along the lower Mississippi River and its major tributaries, and ground-water samples beneath a cornfield in central Nebraska. Average recovery of a surrogate herbicide, terbuthylazine, was greater than 99%. Recoveries of the compounds of interest from river water spiked at environmental levels are also presented. Full-scan mass spectra of these compounds were obtained on 1 ng or less of analyte. Data were collected in the full-scan acquisition mode. Quantitation was based on a single characteristic ion for each compound. The detection limit was 60 pg with a signal-to-noise ratio of greater than 10:1.

Analytica Chimica Acta↗

The atmosphere can be a source of certain water soluble volatile organic compounds in urban streams

Surface water and air volatile organic compound (VOC) data from 10 U.S. Geological Survey monitoring sites were used to evaluate the potential for direct transport of VOCs from the atmosphere to urban streams. Analytical results of 87 VOC compounds were screened by evaluating the occurrence and detection levels in both water and air, and equilibrium concentrations in water (C w s ) based on the measured air concentrations. Four compounds (acetone, methyl tertiary butyl ether, toluene, and m - & p -xylene) were detected in more than 20% of water samples, in more than 10% of air samples, and more than 10% of detections in air were greater than long-term method detection levels (LTMDL) in water. Benzene was detected in more than 20% of water samples and in more than 10% of air samples. Two percent of benzene detections in air were greater than one-half the LTMDL in water. Six compounds (chloroform, p-isopropyltoluene, methylene chloride, perchloroethene, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, and trichloroethene) were detected in more than 20% of water samples and in more than 10% of air samples. Five VOCs, toluene, m - & p -xylene, methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), acetone, and benzene were identified as having sufficiently high concentrations in the atmosphere to be a source to urban streams. MTBE, acetone, and benzene exhibited behavior that was consistent with equilibrium concentrations in the atmosphere.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

Relations between DNA- and RNA-based molecular methods for cyanobacteria and microcystin concentration at Maumee Bay State Park Lakeside Beach, Oregon, Ohio, 2012

Water samples were collected from Maumee Bay State Park Lakeside Beach, Oregon, Ohio, during the 2012 recreational season and analyzed for selected cyanobacteria gene sequences by DNA-based quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and RNA-based quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). Results from the four DNA assays (for quantifying total cyanobacteria, total Microcystis , and Microcystis and Planktothrix strains that possess the microcystin synthetase E ( mcyE ) gene) and two RNA assays (for quantifying Microcystis and Planktothrix genera that are expressing the microcystin synthetase E ( mcyE ) gene) were compared to microcystin concentration results determined by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Concentrations of the target in replicate analyses were log10 transformed. The average value of differences in log10 concentrations for the replicates that had at least one detection were found to range from 0.05 to >0.37 copy per 100 milliliters (copy/100 mL) for DNA-based methods and from >0.04 to >0.17 copy/100 mL for RNA-based methods. RNA has a shorter half-life than DNA; consequently, a 24-hour holding-time study was done to determine the effects of holding time on RNA concentrations. Holding-time comparisons for the RNA-based Microcystis toxin mcyE assay showed reductions in the number of copies per 100 milliliters over 24 hours. The log difference between time 2 hours and time 24 hours was >0.37 copy/100 mL, which was higher than the analytical variability (log difference of >0.17 copy/100 mL). Spearman’s correlation analysis indicated that microcystin toxin concentrations were moderately to highly related to DNA-based assay results for total cyanobacteria (rho=0.69), total Microcystis (rho=0.74), and Microcystis strains that possess the mcyE gene (rho=0.81). Microcystin toxin concentrations were strongly related with RNA-based assay results for Microcystis mcyE gene expression (rho=0.95). Correlation analysis could not be done for Planktothrix mcyE gene expression because of too few detections.

Ohio↗

Theoretical stusy of the reaction between 2,2',4' - trihydroxyazobenzene-5-sulfonic acid and zirconium

Zirconium reacts with 2,2',4'-trihydroxyazobenzene-5-sulfonic acid in acid solutions to Form two complexes in which the ratios of dye to zirconium are 1 to 1 and 2 to 1. Both complexes are true chelates, with zirconium acting as a bridge between the two orthohydroxy dye groups. Apparent equilibrium constants for the reactions to form each of the complexes are determined. The reactions are used as a basis for the determination of the active component in the dye and a graphical method for the determination of reagent purity is described. Four absorption spectra covering the wave length region from 350 to 750 mu are given, which completely define the color system associated with the reactions in solutions where the hydrochloric acid concentration ranges from 0.0064N to about 7N.

Analytical Chemistry↗

Modeling crustal deformation near active faults and volcanic centers: a catalog of deformation models and modeling approaches

This manual provides the physical and mathematical concepts for selected models used to interpret deformation measurements near active faults and volcanic centers. The emphasis is on analytical models of deformation that can be compared with data from the Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers, Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), leveling surveys, tiltmeters and strainmeters. Source models include pressurized spherical, ellipsoidal, and horizontal penny-shaped geometries in an elastic, homogeneous, flat half-space. Vertical dikes and faults are described following the mathematical notation for rectangular dislocations in an elastic, homogeneous, flat half-space. All the analytical expressions were verified against numerical models developed by use of COMSOL Multyphics, a Finite Element Analysis software (http://www.comsol.com). In this way, typographical errors present were identified and corrected. Matlab scripts are also provided to facilitate the application of these models.

Techniques and Methods↗

Preliminary assessment of a water-quality monitoring program for total maximum daily loads in Johnson County, Kansas, January 2015 through June 2016

Municipalities in Johnson County in northeastern Kansas are required to implement stormwater management programs to reduce pollutant discharges, protect water quality, and comply with applicable water-quality regulations in accordance with National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permits for stormwater discharge. To this end, municipalities collect grab samples at streams entering and leaving their jurisdiction to determine levels of excessive nutrients, sediment, and fecal bacteria to characterize pollutants and understand the factors affecting them. In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Johnson County Stormwater Management Program, with input from the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, initiated a 5-year monitoring program to satisfy minimum sampling requirements for each municipality as described by new stormwater permits issued to Johnson County municipalities. The purpose of this report is to provide a preliminary assessment of the monitoring program. The monitoring program is described, a preliminary assessment of the monitoring program design is provided using water-quality data collected during the first 2 years of the program, and the ability of the current monitoring network and sampling plan to provide data sufficient to quantify improvements in water quality resulting from implemented and planned best management practices is evaluated. The information in this initial report may be used to evaluate changes in data collection methods while data collection is still ongoing that may lead to improved data utility. Discrete water-quality samples were collected at 27 sites and analyzed for nutrients, Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) bacteria, total suspended solids, and suspended-sediment concentration. In addition, continuous water-quality data (water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, turbidity, and nitrate plus nitrite) were collected at one site to characterize variability and provide a basis for comparison to discrete data. Base flow samples indicated that point sources are likely affecting nutrient concentrations and E. coli bacteria densities at several sites. Concentrations of all analytes in storm runoff samples were characterized by substantial variability among sites and samples. About one-half of the sites, representing different watersheds, had storm runoff samples with nitrogen concentrations greater than 10 milligrams per liter. About one-third of the sites, representing different watersheds, had storm runoff samples with total phosphorus concentrations greater than 3 milligrams per liter. Six sites had samples with E. coli densities greater than 100,000 colonies per 100 milliliters of water. Total suspended solids concentrations of about 12,000 milligrams per liter or greater occurred in samples from three sites. Data collected for this monitoring program may be useful for some general assessment purposes but may also be limited in potential to fully inform stormwater management activities. Valuable attributes of the monitoring program design included incorporating many sites across the county for comparisons among watersheds and municipalities, using fixed-stage samplers to collect multiple samples during single events, collection of base flow samples in addition to storm samples to isolate possible point sources from stormwater sources, and use of continuous monitors to characterize variability. Limiting attributes of the monitoring program design included location of monitoring sites along municipal boundaries to satisfy permit requirements rather than using watershed-based criteria such as locations of tributaries, potential pollutant sources, and implemented management practices. Additional limiting attributes include having a large number of widespread sampling locations, which presented logistical challenges for predicting localized rainfall and collecting and analyzing samples during short timeframes associated with storms, and collecting storm samples at fixed-stage elevations only during the rising limb of storms, which does not characterize conditions over the storm hydrograph. The small number of samples collected per site resulted in a sample size too small to be representative of site conditions, including seasonal and hydrologic variability, and insufficient for meaningful statistical analysis or site-specific modeling. Several measures could be taken to improve data utility and include redesigning the monitoring network according to watershed characteristics, incorporating a nested design in which data are collected at different scales (watershed, subwatershed, and best management practices), increasing sampling frequency, and combining different methods to allow for flexibility to focus on areas and conditions of particular interest. A monitoring design that would facilitate most of these improvements would be to focus efforts on a limited number of watersheds for several years, then cycle to the next set of watersheds for several years, eventually returning to previously monitored watersheds to document changes. Redesign of the water-quality monitoring program requires considerable effort and commitment from municipalities of Johnson County. However, the long-term benefit likely is a monitoring program that results in improved stream conditions and more effective management practices and efficient expenditure of resources.

Kansas↗

Evaluation of a portable automated serum chemistry analyzer for field assessment of harlequin ducks, Histrionicus histrionicus

A portable analytical chemistry analyzer was used to make field assessments of wild harlequin ducks ( Histrionicus histrionicus ) in association with telemetry studies of winter survival in Prince William Sound, Alaska. We compared serum chemistry results obtained on-site with results from a traditional laboratory. Particular attention was paid to serum glucose and potassium concentrations as potential indicators of high-risk surgical candidates based on evaluation of the field data. The median differential for glucose values ( 𝑁 = 8 2 ) between methods was 0.6 mmol/L (quartiles 0.3 and 0.9 mmol/L) with the median value higher when assayed on site. Analysis of potassium on site returned a median of 2.7 mmol/L ( 𝑁 = 8 8 ; quartiles 2.4 and 3.0 mmol/L). Serum potassium values were too low for quantitation by the traditional laboratory. Changes in several serum chemistry values following a three-day storm during the study support the value of on site evaluation of serum potassium to identify presurgical patients with increased anesthetic risk.

Alaska↗

Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: a probablistic approach

Distributed models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are deterministic. These models extend spatially the static stability models adopted in geotechnical engineering and adopt an infinite-slope geometry to balance the resisting and the driving forces acting on the sliding mass. An infiltration model is used to determine how rainfall changes pore-water conditions, modulating the local stability/instability conditions. A problem with the existing models is the difficulty in obtaining accurate values for the several variables that describe the material properties of the slopes. The problem is particularly severe when the models are applied over large areas, for which sufficient information on the geotechnical and hydrological conditions of the slopes is not generally available. To help solve the problem, we propose a probabilistic Monte Carlo approach to the distributed modeling of shallow rainfall-induced landslides. For the purpose, we have modified the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis (TRIGRS) code. The new code (TRIGRS-P) adopts a stochastic approach to compute, on a cell-by-cell basis, transient pore-pressure changes and related changes in the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Infiltration is modeled using analytical solutions of partial differential equations describing one-dimensional vertical flow in isotropic, homogeneous materials. Both saturated and unsaturated soil conditions can be considered. TRIGRS-P copes with the natural variability inherent to the mechanical and hydrological properties of the slope materials by allowing values of the TRIGRS model input parameters to be sampled randomly from a given probability distribution. The range of variation and the mean value of the parameters can be determined by the usual methods used for preparing the TRIGRS input parameters. The outputs of several model runs obtained varying the input parameters are analyzed statistically, and compared to the original (deterministic) model output. The comparison suggests an improvement of the predictive power of the model of about 10% and 16% in two small test areas, i.e. the Frontignano (Italy) and the Mukilteo (USA) areas, respectively. We discuss the computational requirements of TRIGRS-P to determine the potential use of the numerical model to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in very large areas, extending for several hundreds or thousands of square kilometers. Parallel execution of the code using a simple process distribution and the Message Passing Interface (MPI) on multi-processor machines was successful, opening the possibly of testing the use of TRIGRS-P for the operational forecasting of rainfall-induced shallow landslides over large regions.

Geoscientific Model Development and Discussions↗

Simultaneous determination of Cr(iii) and Cr(vi) using reversed-phased ion-pairing liquid chromatography with dynamic reaction cell inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry

A method for the simultaneous determination of Cr(iii) and Cr(vi) species in waters, soil leachates and synthetic bio-fluids is described. The method uses reversed-phase ion-pairing liquid chromatography to separate the chromium species and a dynamic reaction cell (DRC??) equipped ICP-MS for detection of chromium. Separation of the chromium species is carried out in less than 2 min. Cr(iii) is complexed with ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) prior to separation by mixing samples with the mobile phase containing 2.0 mM tetrabutylammonium hydroxide (TBAOH), 0.5 mM EDTA (dipotassium salt), and 5% (vol/vol) methanol, adjusted to pH 7.6. The interfering 40Ar 12C+ background peak at mass 52 was reduced by over four orders of magnitude to less than 200 cps by using 0.65 mL min-1 ammonia as a reaction gas and an RPq setting on the DRC of 0.75. Method detection limits (MDLs) of 0.09 ??g L-1 for Cr(iii) and 0.06 ??g L-1 for Cr(vi) were obtained based on peak areas at mass 52 for 50 ??L injections of low level spikes. Reproducibility at 2 ??g L-1 was 3% RSD for 5 replicate injections. The tolerance of the method to various levels of common cations and anions found in natural waters and to matrix constituents found in soil leachates and simulated gastric and lung fluids was tested by performing spike recovery calculations for a variety of samples. ?? The Royal Society of Chemistry.

Journal of Analytical Atomic Spectrometry↗

Determination of selected azaarenes in water by bonded-phase extraction and liquid chromatography

A method for the rapid and simple quantitative determination of quinoline, isoquinoline, and five selected three-ring azaarenes in water has been developed. The azaarene fraction is separated from its carbon analogues on n-octadecyl packing material by edition with acidified water/acetonitrile. Concentration as great as 1000-fold is achieved readily. Instrumental analysis involves high-speed liquid chromatography on flexible-walled, wide-bore columns with fluorescence and ultraviolet detection at several wavelengths employing filter photometers in series. Method-validation data is provided as azaarene recovery efficiency from fortified samples. Distilled water, river water, contaminated ground water, and secondary-treatment effluent have been tested. Recoveries at part-per-billion levels are nearly quantitative for the three-ring compounds, but they decrease for quinoline and isoquinoline.

Analytical Chemistry↗

230Th/U ages Supporting Hanford Site‐Wide Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

This product represents a USGS Administrative Report that discusses samples and methods used to conduct uranium-series isotope analyses and resulting ages and initial 234U/238U activity ratios of pedogenic cements developed in several different surfaces in the Hanford area middle to late Pleistocene. Samples were collected and dated to provide calibration of soil development in surface deposits that are being used in the Hanford Site-Wide probabilistic seismic hazard analysis conducted by AMEC. The report includes description of sample locations and physical characteristics, sample preparation, chemical processing and mass spectrometry, analytical results, and calculated ages for individual sites. Ages of innermost rinds on a number of samples from five sites in eastern Washington are consistent with a range of minimum depositional ages from 17 ka for cataclysmic flood deposits to greater than 500 ka for alluvium at several sites.

Washington↗

Evaluation of analytical techniques to determine AQUI-S® 20E (eugenol) concentrations in water

There is a critical need in U.S. public aquaculture and fishery management programs for an immediate-release sedative, i.e. a compound that can be safely and effectively used to sedate fish and subsequently, allow for their immediate release. AQUI-S® 20E (10% active ingredient, eugenol; any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government) is being pursued for U.S. approval as an immediate-release sedative. As part of the approval process, data describing animal safety and efficacy are needed. Essential to conducting studies that generate those data, is a method to accurately and precisely determine AQUI-S® 20E concentrations in exposure baths. Spectrophotometric and solid phase extraction (SPE)–high pressure liquid chromatography (LC) methods were developed and evaluated as methods to determine AQUI-S® 20E (eugenol) concentrations in water, methods that could be applied to any situation where eugenol was being evaluated as a fish sedative. The spectrophotometric method was accurate and precise (accuracy, > 87%; precision, < 0.70 %CV) when determining eugenol concentrations in solutions of 50 to 1000 mg/L AQUI-S® 20E made with LC grade water and water with varying pH and hardness. The spectrophotometric method's accuracy was negatively affected when analyzing water containing fish feed. The SPE–LC method was also accurate and precise (accuracy > 86%; precision < 8.9 %CV) when determining eugenol concentrations in solutions of 50 to 1000 mg/L AQUI-S® 20E made with LC grade water and water with varying pH and hardness. The SPE–LC method was influenced to a lesser degree by the presence of fish feed indicating greater specificity for eugenol.

Aquaculture↗

Analytical approach to calculation of response spectra from seismological models of ground motion

An analytical approach to calculate response spectra from seismological models of ground motion is presented. Seismological models have three major advantages over empirical models: (1) they help in an understanding of the physics of earthquake mechanisms, (2) they can be used to predict ground motions for future earthquakes and (3) they can be extrapolated to cases where there are no data available. As shown with this study, these models also present a convenient form for the calculation of response spectra, by using the methods of random vibration theory, for a given magnitude and site conditions. The first part of the paper reviews the past models for ground motion description, and introduces the available seismological models. Then, the random vibration equations for the spectral response are presented. The nonstationarity, spectral bandwidth and the correlation of the peaks are considered in the calculation of the peak response.

Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics↗

Concentrations of Insecticides in Selected Surface Water Bodies in Suffolk County, New York, Before and After Mosquito Spraying, 2002-04

Concentrations of insecticides sprayed from truck or helicopter onto selected surface-water bodies in Suffolk County, N.Y., during the summers of 2002-04 decreased to below detection limits within 4 days after application. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Suffolk County Department of Health Services (SCDHS), sampled surface waters from selected wetlands for insecticides that were sprayed seasonally from a truck or helicopter as part of the county’s West Nile Virus vector-control program. A total of 72 samples were collected from 27 sites and analyzed for 6 compunds—malathion, methoprene, methoprene acid, piperonyl butoxide (PBO), resmethrin, and sumithrin—that are typically used to help control mosquitoes. PBO was the most frequently detected analyte (33.3%), followed by resmethrin (11.1%), methoprene (9.7%), and methoprene acid (2.4%). Sumithrin and malathion were not applied and were not detected in any of the samples. Maximum recorded concentration of compounds in surface water were: PBO (59,800 ng/L), methoprene (9,030 ng/L), methoprene acid (1,710 ng/L), and resmethrin (293 ng/L). PBO and resmethrin were detected more often in samples when the compounds were applied by a helicopter rather than a truck. This report describes the 27 sampled locations, the sampling methods, and presents the initial results of the study. Detail is provided about concentrations of the applied compounds with respect to time as well as comparisons between the two application processes (truck versus helicopter). All data collected are presented in a table.

New York↗

Integration of vegetation classification with land cover mapping: Lessons from regional mapping efforts in the Americas

Aims : Natural resource management and biodiversity conservation rely on inventories of vegetation that span multiple management or political jurisdictions. However, while remote sensing data and analytical tools have enabled production of maps at increasing spatial resolution and reliability, there are limited examples where national or continental-scaled maps are produced to represent vegetation at high thematic detail. We illustrate two examples that have bridged the gap between traditional land cover mapping and modern vegetation classification. Study area : Our two case studies include national ( USA ) and continental (North and South America) vegetation and land cover mapping. These studies span conditions from subpolar to tropical latitudes of the Americas. Methods : Both case studies used a supervised modeling approach with the International Vegetation Classification ( IVC ) to produce maps that provide for greater thematic detail. Georeferenced locations for these vegetation types are used by machine learning algorithms to train a predictive model and generate a distribution map. Results : The USA LANDFIRE (Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Project) case study illustrates how a history of vegetation-based classification and availability of key inputs can come together to generate standard map products covering more than 9.8 million km 2 that are unsurpassed anywhere in the world in terms of spatial and thematic resolution. That being said, it also remains clear that mapping at the thematic resolution of the IVC Group and finer resolution require very large and spatially balanced inputs of georeferenced samples. Even with extensive prior data collection efforts, these remain a key limitation. The NatureServe effort for the Americas - encompassing 22% of the global land surface - demonstrates methods and outputs suitable for worldwide application at continental scales. Conclusions : Continued collection of input data used in the case studies could enable mapping at these spatial and thematic resolutions around the globe.

Vegetation Classification and Survey↗

Kullback-Leibler information in resolving natural resource conflicts when definitive data exist

Conflicts often arise in the management of natural resources. Often they result from differing perceptions, varying interpretations of the law, and self-interests among stakeholder groups (for example, the values and perceptions about spotted owls and forest management differ markedly among environmental groups, government regulatory agencies, and timber industries). We extend the conceptual approach to conflict resolution of Anderson et al. (1999) by using information-theoretic methods to provide quantitative evidence for differing stakeholder positions. Importantly, we assume that relevant empirical data exist that are central to the potential resolution of the conflict. We present a hypothetical example involving an experiment to assess potential effects of a chemical on monthly survival probabilities of the hen clam (Spisula solidissima). The conflict centers on 3 stakeholder positions: 1) no effect, 2) an acute effect, and 3) an acute and chronic effect of the chemical treatment. Such data were given to 18 analytical teams to make independent analyses and provide the relative evidence for each of 3 stakeholder positions in the conflict. The empirical evidence strongly supports only one of the 3 positions in the conflict: the application of the chemical causes acute and chronic effects on monthly survival, following treatment. Formal inference from all the stakeholder positions is provided for the 2 key parameters underlying the hen clam controversy. The estimates of these parameters were essentially unbiased (the relative bias for the control and treatment group's survival probability was -0.857% and 1.400%, respectively) and precise (coefficients of variation were 0.576% and 2.761%, respectively). The advantages of making formal inference from all the models, rather than drawing conclusions from only the estimated best model, is illustrated. Finally, we contrast information-theoretic and Bayesian approaches in terms of how positions in the controversy enter the formal analysis.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗