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Porphyry copper assessment of British Columbia and Yukon Territory, Canada: Chapter C in Global mineral resource assessment

The U.S. Geological Survey does regional, national, and global assessments of resources (mineral, energy, water, biologic) to provide science in support of land management and decision making. Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about where mineral deposits are known and suspected to be in the Earth’s crust, which commodities may be present, and estimates of amounts of resources that may be present in undiscovered deposits. Canada is an important source of copper, consistently ranking as one of the top 10 world producers during the past decade (2000–2010). The preponderance of this production has been from porphyry-copper-type deposits in the western Canadian Cordillera. A probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered resources associated with porphyry copper deposits in western Canada was completed as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The purpose of the assessment was to (1) compile a database of known deposits and significant prospects, (2) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits that may be present in the upper kilometer (minimally) of the Earth’s crust, and (3) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in the tracts. The study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in collaboration with geologists from the British Columbia Geological Survey, Yukon Geological Survey, and industry consultants. The database of known deposits and significant prospects includes an inventory of mineral resources in 89 known porphyry copper (and 2 related copper-bearing polymetallic vein) ore zones, representing 50 porphyry copper deposits, and lists key characteristics of 280 additional porphyry copper and related copper-bearing prospects, as indicated by currently available exploration results, which also are summarized. Resource and exploration and development activity are updated with information current through April 2010. The delineation of permissive tracts and probabilistic estimation of resources in undiscovered deposits were done using the USGS three-part mineral resource assessment approach. Permissive tracts are defined in accordance with descriptive models for porphyry copper deposits to include igneous rocks and known deposits and prospects within magmatic arcs related to convergent plate-margin boundary zones. Frequency distributions of total tonnages and average grades of thoroughly explored deposits were used as models for undiscovered deposits and include a new grade and tonnage model for calc-alkaline porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits in western Canada. Five permissive tracts for the occurrence of porphyry copper deposits were delineated: 2 island-arc tracts, 1 tract of transitional, mixed island-arc and continental arc affinities, and 2 continental arc tracts. In permissive tract 003pCu2001, calc-alkaline igneous rocks of Middle Triassic to Late Jurassic age in accreted island-arc terranes of the Intermontane belt are assessed for calc-alkaline porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits. The area of this tract is 175,250 km 2 . In 12 known deposits, the total reported tonnage of ore is 8,100 million metric tons (Mt) containing 24.6 Mt copper. An estimated 6.9 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 8.9 Mt copper and a median of 6.9 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 18.9 known plus estimated undiscovered deposits in this tract is approximately 11 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . In permissive tract 003pCu2002, alkaline igneous rocks of Middle Triassic to Late Jurassic age within the Intermontane accreted island-arc terranes are assessed for alkaline porphyry Cu-Au deposits. The area of this tract is 109,290 km 2 . In 12 known deposits the total reported tonnage of ore is 6,440 Mt, containing 20.9 Mt copper. An estimated 7 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 22 Mt copper and a median of 13 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 19 known plus estimated undiscovered deposits in this tract is approximately 17 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . In permissive tract 003pCu2003, calc-alkaline igneous rocks of Late Triassic to Early Cretaceous age within the accreted Insular terranes of mixed island-arc and continental arc affinities are assessed for calc-alkaline porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits. The area of this tract is 58,360 km 2 . The total tonnage of ore reported in the 2 known deposits is 1,160 Mt containing 3.17 Mt copper. An estimated 2.3 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 3 Mt copper and a median of 1.9 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 4.3 known plus estimated undiscovered deposits in this tract is approximately 7 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . In permissive tract 003pCu2004, calc-alkaline igneous rocks in continental magmatic arcs of Jurassic to Eocene age are assessed for porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits. The area of this tract is 639,500 km 2 . The total tonnage of ore reported for the 23 known deposits is 6,520 Mt containing 17.9 Mt copper. An estimated 9.6 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 13 Mt copper and a median of 11 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 32.6 known deposits plus the estimated undiscovered deposits in this tract is approximately 5 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . In permissive tract 003pCu2005, calc-alkaline igneous rocks in continental magmatic arcs of Oligocene to Pliocene age are assessed for porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits. The area of this tract is 32,840 km 2 . The total tonnage of ore reported for the 1 known deposit is 44.8 Mt containing 0.224 Mt copper. An estimated 1.4 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 1.8 Mt copper and a median of 0.72 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 2.4 known plus estimated undiscovered deposits in this permissive tract is approximately 7 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . Western Canada has been thoroughly explored for porphyry copper deposits. The total estimated copper contained in known deposits is about 66.8 Mt (based on 2010 data), as compared to a 49 Mt mean of estimated copper in undiscovered deposits and a 34 Mt median of estimated copper in undiscovered deposits. The copper contained in known porphyry copper deposits represents about 58 percent of the total of known and undiscovered porphyry copper deposits (based on mean values). About 86 percent of the increase in estimated copper resources between 1993 and 2009 resulted from the discovery of extensions to known deposits. Nevertheless, exploration for undiscovered deposits continues, especially in and around significant prospects and in parts of permissive tracts that are mostly hidden beneath younger volcanic, sedimentary, or vegetated surficial cover.

British Columbia, Yukon Territory↗

The water-energy nexus: An earth science perspective

Water availability and use are closely connected with energy development and use. Water cannot be delivered to homes, businesses, and industries without energy, and most forms of energy development require large amounts of water. The United States faces two significant and sometimes competing challenges: to provide sustainable supplies of freshwater for humans and ecosystems and to ensure adequate sources of energy for future generations. This report reviews the complex ways in which water and energy are interconnected and describes the earth science data collection and research that can help the Nation address these important challenges. The earth sciences have been a cornerstone in developing our current understanding of the water-energy nexus. A full understanding of the nexus, however, is limited by uncertainty in our knowledge of fundamental issues, such as the quantity of freshwater that is available, the amount of water that is used in energy development, the effects that emerging energy development technologies have on water quality and quantity, and the amount of energy required to treat and deliver freshwater. Enhanced data collection and research can improve our understanding of these important issues and thereby lay the groundwork for informed resource management. Relevant earth science issues analyzed and discussed herein include freshwater availability; water use; ecosystems health; assessment of saline water resources; assessment of fossil-fuel, uranium, and geothermal resources; subsurface injection of wastewater and carbon dioxide and related induced seismicity; climate change and its effect on water availability and energy production; byproducts and waste streams of energy development; emerging energy-development technologies; and energy for water treatment and delivery.

Circular↗

Second Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling (IHTM 2.0) workshop: USGCRP federal agency perspectives

U.S. federal leadership, mobilizing close interagency coordination across sectors, is key to tackling compound climate and human impacts on our nation’s water resources. Recognizing this need, federal agencies and academic collaborators conducted a series of workshops to advance Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling (IHTM). IHTM is focused on supporting a multiscale framework to accelerate research insights, better integrate operational and planning perspectives, and bridge national-to-regional capabilities to address major interdependent societal water challenges. This framework leverages the capabilities of different agencies and institutional partners across sectors to advance a shared vision for use-inspired modeling and open science. The IHTM conceptual framework has developed over several community workshops in recent years: ● In September 2019, a community coordinating group on IHTM hosted an interagency workshop (“IHTM 1.0”) with support from NSF, DOE, and USGS. The resulting report identified the need for agencies to invest resources in designing pilot use cases, setting the stage for an integrated national IHTM capability. ● In November 2020, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) held a virtual Coastal-IHTM (C-IHTM) workshop in collaboration with the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice, which engages researchers across universities and national labs. Building on IHTM 1.0, this workshop aimed to identify coastal modeling capabilities and appropriate coastal applications of the IHTM framework. The workshop report detailed needs for open science, geographical or topical use cases, integrated modeling frameworks, and linking communities of practice. ● From October 31 to November 2, 2023, USGCRP hosted a hybrid IHTM 2.0 community workshop that brought together 160 scientists and managers from nine federal departments/agencies (DHS-FEMA, DOC-NOAA, DoD-USACE, DOE, DOI [U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), USGS], EPA, NASA, NSF, USDA [ARS, FS, NRCS]) and 32 non-federal academic, non-profit, and private institutions and consortiums. The workshop was organized by a federal Interagency Steering Committee with representatives from DOE, USGS, NSF, NASA, and NOAA, as well as a Scientific Organizing Committee comprising experts from academia and additional federal agency technical experts. The IHTM 2.0 workshop focused on moving the IHTM 1.0 concepts to action by making advances in designing national and regional integrated modeling experiments in five geographic testbeds. These modeling testbeds seek to facilitate collaborative water resources research and assessment that responds to societal needs, extending from basic research to resource management operations, including the assessment of water quantity, quality, and use at national and regional scales. Ultimately, we envision that the IHTM testbeds will improve our ability to provide water resources assessment scenarios to decision-makers and the public. This document summarizes USGCRP and member agencies’ perspectives of the IHTM 2.0 workshop. Sections 2 and 3 build on the work of the IHTM 2.0 workshop Scientific Organizing Committee to outline the importance of IHTM, summarize the workshop, and propose near- and medium-term IHTM priorities. Section 4 presents select ongoing and potential interagency activities that could help realize the IHTM 2.0 vision and align with three of USGCRP’s strategic goals for this decade: Advancing Science, Informing Decisions, and Engaging the Nation. Finally, Section 5 summarizes this report and offers information about how to connect with USGCRP’s IHTM activities. USGCRP and its member agencies are well-positioned to coordinate federal efforts to enhance IHTM capabilities in the coming years.

Conference Paper↗

Network analysis of a regional fishery: Implications for management of natural resources, and recruitment and retention of anglers

Angler groups and water-body types interact to create a complex social-ecological system. Network analysis could inform detailed mechanistic models on, and provide managers better information about, basic patterns of fishing activity. Differences in behavior and reservoir selection among angler groups in a regional fishery, the Salt Valley fishery in southeastern Nebraska, USA, were assessed using a combination of cluster and network analyses. The four angler groups assessed ranged from less active, unskilled anglers (group One) to highly active, very skilled anglers (group Four). Reservoir use patterns and the resulting network communities of these four angler groups differed; the number of reservoir communities for these groups ranged from two to three and appeared to be driven by reservoir location (group One), reservoir size and its associated attributes (groups Two and Four), or an interaction between reservoir size and location (group Three). Network analysis is a useful tool to describe differences in participation among angler groups within a regional fishery, and provides new insights about possible recruitment of anglers. For example, group One anglers fished reservoirs closer to home and had a greater probability of dropping out if local reservoir access were restricted.

Fisheries Research↗

Fifteen years of WRTDS for advancing water-quality science: A critical review of methodological developments and global applications

Contamination by nutrients, major ions, and metals poses a major threat to global water sustainability. Understanding how these pollutants vary across time and space requires long-term monitoring and robust statistical approaches. Traditional methods, however, often struggle to account for streamflow variability, seasonality, and nonlinear responses. Introduced in 2010, the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) method offers a flexible, data-driven framework that generates both observed and flow-normalized estimates of concentration and load. Over the past 15 years, WRTDS has become a state-of-the-art tool for water-quality science and management, with applications spanning a wide range of hydrologic, climatic, and policy contexts─including major watersheds across North America, Europe, Asia, Australia, and the Arctic. In this review of WRTDS, we document the method’s major advancements, examine its expanding geographic and thematic applications, and summarize its relevance to water-quality management programs and policies worldwide. We also discuss its performance relative to other regression and machine-learning approaches. Finally, we identify key priorities for future development to support the continued evolution of WRTDS as a trusted and practical tool for scientists and managers working to protect and sustain water resources.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

National Water‐Use Information Program

The US National Water-Use Information Program is a cooperative program between the states and the Federal Government. The purpose of the program is to determine how much fresh and saline surface water and ground water is withdrawn and for what purpose, how much water is consumed during use, and how much water is returned to a water body after use. To accomplish its purpose, the program's goals are to: 1) collect and compile water-use data; 2) develop and refine computerized water-use data systems; 3) improve the collection and analysis of water-use information; and 4) disseminate information.-from ASCE Publications Information

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗

A uniform technique for flood frequency analysis.

This uniform technique consisted of fitting the logarithms of annual peak discharges to a Pearson Type III distribution using the method of moments. The objective was to adopt a consistent approach for the estimation of floodflow frequencies that could be used in computing average annual flood losses for project evaluation. In addition, a consistent approach was needed for defining equitable flood-hazard zones as part of the National Flood Insurance Program. -from ASCE Publications Information

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗

Regression estimates for topological‐hydrograph input

Physiographic, hydrologic, and rainfall data from 18 small drainage basins in semiarid, central Wyoming were used to calibrate topological, unit‐hydrograph models for celerity, the average rate of travel of a flood wave through the basin. The data set consisted of basin characteristics and hydrologic data for the 18 basins and rainfall data for 68 storms. Calibrated values of celerity and peak discharges subsequently were regressed as a function of the basin characteristics and excess rainfall volume. Predicted values obtained in this way can be used as input for estimating hydrographs in ungaged basins. The regression models included ordinary least‐squares and seemingly unrelated regression. This latter regression model jointly estimated the celerity and peak discharge. The correlation between residuals of the celerity and peak‐discharge regressions was sufficiently large to de‐, crease the variances of estimated univariate‐model parameters.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗

Criteria for evaluating state instream-flow programs: Deciding what works

Most states have adopted some form of instream-flow–protection program. These programs are of three types: instream-flow water rights; reservations of water for instream purposes; and conditions on consumptive water rights. No matter which type of protection program is adapted, the same question remains: How can we tell if it works? Several authors have attempted to answer this question. The works of these analysts are reviewed and criteria are suggested to evaluate the success of an instream-flow–protection program. The criteria are public confidence, certainty, proper administration, expense, and outcome in-stream.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗

Support of total maximum daily load programs using spatially referenced regression models

The spatially referenced regressions on watershed attributes modeling approach, as applied to predictions of total nitrogen flux in three North Carolina river basins, addresses several information needs identified by a National Research Council evaluation of the total maximum daily load program. The model provides reach-level predictions of the probability of exceeding water-quality criteria, and estimates of total nitrogen budgets. Model estimates of point- and diffuse-source contributions and nitrogen loss rates in streams and reservoirs compared moderately well with literature estimates. Maps of reach-level predictions of nutrient inputs and delivery provide an intuitive and spatially detailed summary of the origins and fate of nutrients within a basin.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Source of cooperation or contention?

This paper discusses the challenges and benefits of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is under construction and expected to be operational on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia in a few years. Like many large-scale projects on transboundary rivers, the GERD has been criticized for potentially jeopardizing downstream water security and livelihoods through upstream unilateral decision making. In spite of the contentious nature of the project, the authors argue that this project can provide substantial benefits for regional development. The GERD, like any major river infrastructure project, will undeniably bring about social, environmental, and economic change, and in this unique case has, on balance, the potential to achieve success on all fronts. It must be stressed, however, that strong partnerships between riparian countries are essential. National success is contingent on regional cooperation.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗

Stochastic programming with a joint chance constraint model for reservoir refill operation considering flood risk

Reservoir refill operation modeling attempts to maximize a set of benefits while minimizing risks. The benefits and risks can be in opposition to each other, such as having enough water for hydropower generation while leaving enough room for flood protection. In addition to multiple objects, the uncertainty of streamflow can make decision making difficult. This paper develops a stochastic optimization model for reservoir refill operation with the objective of maximizing the expected synthesized energy production for a cascade system of hydropower stations while considering flood risk. Streamflow uncertainty is addressed by discretized streamflow scenarios and flood risk is controlled by a joint chance constraint restricting the occurrence probability. With the variability of flood risk level, two advancing refill scenarios for exploring operation benefit are presented. Scenario I loosens the current stagewise storage bounds conditions and allows advancing reservoir refills but keeps the flood risk level the same as the refill policies obtained under the current storage bounds. Scenario II keeps the current storage bounds unchanged but allows increases in flood risk level. The proposed methodology is applied to the Xiluodu cascade system of reservoirs in China and investigates the optimal refill policies obtained by both scenarios. Compared with the benchmark obtained under the current storage bounds and lowest flood risk level, the results show (1) the synthesized energy production can be improved by 2.13% without changing the flood risk level under Scenario I, and (2) the synthesized energy production can also be increased by 0.21% at the expense of increasing the flood risk level by 4.4% when Scenario II is employed. As Scenario I produces higher benefit and lower risk than Scenario II, it is recommended to loosen the current stagewise storage bounds but to keep the flood risk level unchanged during refill operations.

Xiluodu Cascade Reservoir↗

Projecting impacts of climate change on water availability using artificial neural network techniques

Lago Loíza reservoir in east-central Puerto Rico is one of the primary sources of public water supply for the San Juan metropolitan area. To evaluate and predict the Lago Loíza water budget, an artificial neural network (ANN) technique is trained to predict river inflows. A method is developed to combine ANN-predicted daily flows with ANN-predicted 30-day cumulative flows to improve flow estimates. The ANN application trains well for representing 2007–2012 and the drier 1994–1997 periods. Rainfall data downscaled from global circulation model (GCM) simulations are used to predict 2050–2055 conditions. Evapotranspiration is estimated with the Hargreaves equation using minimum and maximum air temperatures from the downscaled GCM data. These simulated 2050–2055 river flows are input to a water budget formulation for the Lago Loíza reservoir for comparison with 2007–2012. The ANN scenarios require far less computational effort than a numerical model application, yet produce results with sufficient accuracy to evaluate and compare hydrologic scenarios. This hydrologic tool will be useful for future evaluations of the Lago Loíza reservoir and water supply to the San Juan metropolitan area.

Puerto Rico↗

The next frontier: Making research more reproducible

Science and engineering rest on the concept of reproducibility. An important question for any study is: are the results reproducible? Can the results be recreated independently by other researchers or professionals? Research results need to be independently reproduced and validated before they are accepted as fact or theory. Across numerous fields like psychology, computer systems, and water resources there are problems to reproduce research results (Aarts et al. 2015; Collberg et al. 2014; Hutton et al. 2016; Stagge et al. 2019; Stodden et al. 2018). This editorial examines the challenges to reproduce research results and suggests community practices to overcome these challenges. Coordination is needed among the authors, journals, funders and institutions that produce, publish, and report research. Making research more reproducible will allow researchers, professionals, and students to more quickly understand and apply research in follow-on efforts and advance the field.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗

U.S. Geological Survey Federal-State Program

The U.S. Geological Survey Federal-State Cooperative Water Resource Program is a partnership between the Geological Survey and State and local agencies for the collection of the hydrologic information needed for the continuing determination and evaluation of the quantity, quality, and use of the Nation's water resources. The first Cooperative Program was started in 1895; the Congress gave formal recognition to the partnership in 1928 and authorized Federal funding of not more than 50 percent for cooperative programs with the Geological Survey, with total funding over $80 million. The process of project selection in the Cooperative Water Resource Program is a mutual effort in which Geological Survey represents national interests, including the needs of other Federal agencies, and the cooperator represents State and local interests. The result is a balanced program that involves careful evaluation of needs, priorities, and resources. A number of typical examples of projects within the Cooperative Program are presented.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗

Effects of land use on summer thermal regimes in critical salmonid habitats of the Pacific Northwest

The effect of climate change on stream temperature regimes is of significant concern to natural resource managers focused on protecting cold-water-dependent species. Nevertheless, understanding of how human land-use activities may act to exacerbate the effects of climate change on stream temperature regimes is limited. Using extensive stream temperature data with high-resolution climate and habitat data, we quantified how land management activities are related to summer stream temperatures across the Pacific Northwest, USA. We then described the distribution of land management practices influencing summer thermal regimes relative to the distribution of salmonid fish species of conservation concern. After accounting for climatic and geophysical variation, we detected a strong relationship between livestock grazing and summer thermal regimes. Maximum, average, and diel variation in water temperature was greater where livestock grazing was present. Livestock grazing was widespread, occurring in 43%–100% of sites supporting salmonid species of conservation concern. Thus, current land management practices may be intensifying the effects of ongoing climate change in freshwater habitats, acting to further threaten cold-water fishes of conservation concern.

Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana↗