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At least 1,261 records · Page 70Linked to original sources

Wave-like patterns of plant phenology determine ungulate movement tactics

Animals exhibit a diversity of movement tactics [1]. Tracking resources that change across space and time is predicted to be a fundamental driver of animal movement [2]. For example, some migratory ungulates (i.e., hooved mammals) closely track the progression of highly nutritious plant green-up, a phenomenon called “green-wave surfing” [3-5]. Yet, general principles describing how the dynamic nature of resources determine movement tactics are lacking [6]. We tested emerging theory that predicts surfing and the existence of migratory behavior will be favored in environments where green-up is fleeting and moves sequentially across large landscapes (i.e., wave-like green-up) [7]. Landscapes exhibiting wave-like patterns of green-up facilitated surfing and explained the existence of migratory behavior across 61 populations of four ungulate species on two continents (n=1,696 individuals). At the species level, foraging benefits were equivalent between tactics, suggesting that each movement tactic is fine tuned to local patterns of plant phenology. For decades, ecologists have sought to understand how animals move to select habitat, commonly defining habitat as a set of static patches [8, 9]. Our findings indicate that animal movement tactics emerge as a function of the flux of resources across space and time, underscoring the need to redefine habitat to include its dynamic attributes. As global habitats continue to be modified by anthropogenic disturbance and climate change [10], our synthesis provides a generalizable framework to understand how animal movement will be influenced by altered patterns of resource phenology.

Alberta, British Columbia, Idaho, Wyoming↗

Advances and limitations of individual-based models to analyze and predict dynamics of mangrove forests: A review

Mangrove ecosystems are considered vulnerable to climate change as coastal development limits the ecosystem services and adaptations important to their survival. Although they appear rather simple in terms of species diversity, their ecology is complex due to interacting geophysical forces of tides, surface runoff, river and groundwater discharge, waves, and constituents of sediment, nutrients and saltwater. These interactions limit developing a comprehensive framework for science-based sustainable management practices. A suite of models have been developed independently by various academic and government institutions worldwide to understand the dynamics of mangrove ecosystems and to provide ecological forecasting capabilities under different management scenarios and natural disturbance regimes. The models have progressed from statistical tables representing growth and yield to more sophisticated models describing various system components and processes. Among these models are three individual-based models (IBMs) (FORMAN, KIWI, and MANGRO). A comparison of models’ designs reveal differences in the details of process description, particularly, regarding neighbor competition among trees. Each model has thus its specific range of applications. Whereas FORMAN and KIWI are most suitable to address mangrove forest dynamics of stands, MANGRO focuses on landscape dynamics on larger spatial scale. A comparison of the models and a comparison of the models with empirical knowledge further reveal the general needs for further field and validation studies to advance our ecological understanding and management of mangrove wetlands.

Aquatic Botany↗

Importance of coastal change variables in determining vulnerability to sea- and lake-level change

In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey began conducting scientific assessments of coastal vulnerability to potential future sea- and lake-level changes in 22 National Park Service sea- and lakeshore units. Coastal park units chosen for the assessment included a variety of geological and physical settings along the U.S. Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of Alaska, Caribbean, and Great Lakes shorelines. This research is motivated by the need to understand and anticipate coastal changes caused by accelerating sea-level rise, as well as lake-level changes caused by climate change, over the next century. The goal of these assessments is to provide information that can be used to make long-term (decade to century) management decisions. Here we analyze the results of coastal vulnerability assessments for several coastal national park units. Index-based assessments quantify the likelihood that physical changes may occur based on analysis of the following variables: tidal range, ice cover, wave height, coastal slope, historical shoreline change rate, geomorphology, and historical rate of relative sea- or lake-level change. This approach seeks to combine a coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, and it provides a measure of the system's potential vulnerability to the effects of sea- or lake-level change. Assessments for 22 park units are combined to evaluate relationships among the variables used to derive the index. Results indicate that Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico parks have the highest vulnerability rankings relative to other park regions. A principal component analysis reveals that 99% of the index variability can be explained by four variables: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, water-level change rate, and mean significant wave height. Tidal range, ice cover, and historical shoreline change are not as important when the index is evaluated at large spatial scales (thousands of kilometers). ?? 2010 Coastal Education and Research Foundation.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

Endangered river fish: factors hindering conservation and restoration

Globally, riverine fish face many anthropogenic threats including riparian and flood plain habitat degradation, altered hydrology, migration barriers, fisheries exploitation, environmental (climate) change, and introduction of invasive species. Collectively, these threats have made riverine fishes some of the most threatened taxa on the planet. Although much effort has been devoted to identifying the threats faced by river fish, there has been less effort devoted to identifying the factors that may hinder our ability to conserve and restore river fish populations and their watersheds. Therefore, we focus our efforts on identifying and discussing 10 general factors (can also be viewed as research and implementation needs) that constrain or hinder effective conservation action for endangered river fish: (1) limited basic natural history information; (2) limited appreciation for the scale/extent of migrations and the level of connectivity needed to sustain populations; (3) limited understanding of fish/river-flow relationships; (4) limited understanding of the seasonal aspects of river fish biology, particularly during winter and/or wet seasons; (5) challenges in predicting the response of river fish and river ecosystems to both environmental change and various restoration or management actions; (6) limited understanding of the ecosystem services provided by river fish; (7) the inherent difficulty in studying river fish; (8) limited understanding of the human dimension of river fish conservation and management; (9) limitations of single species approaches that often fail to address the broader-scale problems; and (10) limited effectiveness of governance structures that address endangered river fish populations and rivers that cross multiple jurisdictions. We suggest that these issues may need to be addressed to help protect, restore, or conserve river fish globally, particularly those that are endangered.

Endangered Species Research↗

Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: Recommendations for simulating wet and dry years

Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of ‘Drought-Net’, a relatively low-cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites – a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem-specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based on each site's past climatic characteristics. This approach, though not often used by ecologists, allows ecological responses to be directly compared across disparate ecosystems and climates, facilitating process-level understanding of ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes.

Global Change Biology↗

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) in a changing Arctic

The Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) is a candidate to be listed as an endangered species under United States law, in part, because of climate change‐related concerns. While the population was known to be declining in the 1980s and 1990s, its recent status has not been determined. We developed Bayesian models of walrus population dynamics to assess the population by synthesizing information on population sizes, age structures, reproductive rates, and harvests for 1974–2015. Candidate models allowed for temporal variation in some or all vital rates, as well as density dependence or density independence in reproduction and calf survival. All selected models indicated that the population underwent a multidecade decline, which began moderating in the 1990s, and that annual reproductive rate and natural calf survival rates rose over time in a density‐dependent manner. However, selected models were equivocal regarding whether the natural juvenile survival rate was constant or decreasing over time. Depending on whether juvenile survival decreased after 1998, the population growth rate either increased during 1999–2015 or stabilized at a lesser level of decline than seen in the 1980s. The probability that the population was still declining in 2015 ranged from 45% to 87%.

Marine Mammal Science↗

Bringing an ecological view of change to Landsat-based remote sensing

When characterizing the processes that shape ecosystems, ecologists increasingly use the unique perspective offered by repeat observations of remotely sensed imagery. However, the concept of change embodied in much of the traditional remote-sensing literature was primarily limited to capturing large or extreme changes occurring in natural systems, omitting many more subtle processes of interest to ecologists. Recent technical advances have led to a fundamental shift toward an ecological view of change. Although this conceptual shift began with coarser-scale global imagery, it has now reached users of Landsat imagery, since these datasets have temporal and spatial characteristics appropriate to many ecological questions. We argue that this ecologically relevant perspective of change allows the novel characterization of important dynamic processes, including disturbances, long-term trends, cyclical functions, and feedbacks, and that these improvements are already facilitating our understanding of critical driving forces, such as climate change, ecological interactions, and economic pressures.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

Developing fluvial fish species distribution models across the conterminous United States—A framework for management and conservation

This report explains the steps and specific methods used to predict fluvial fish occurrences in their native ranges for the conterminous United States. In this study, boosted regression tree models predict distributions of 271 ecologically important fluvial fish species using relations between fish presence/absence and 22 natural and anthropogenic landscape variables. Models developed for the freshwater portions of the ranges for species represented 28 families. Cyprinidae was the family with the most species (87 of 271) modeled for this study, followed by Percidae (34) and Ictaluridae (17). Model predictive performance was evaluated using four metrics: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and True Skill Statistic, which are all from tenfold cross-validation results. The relative importance of the predictor variables in the boosted regression tree models was calculated and ranked for each species. The three strongest natural predictors of fish distributions were network catchment area, the mean annual air temperature of the local catchment, and the maximum elevation of the local catchment, while the three strongest anthropogenic predictors were downstream main stem dam density, distance to downstream main stem dam, and the percentage of pasture/hay land use area within network catchment boundaries. Study results showed 61 fish species were sensitive to climate variables, and 40 fish species were sensitive to anthropogenic stressors. The models developed in this study can be used to derive critical information regarding habitat protection priorities, anthropogenic threats, and potential effects of climate change on habitat suitability, aiding in efforts to conserve fluvial fishes now and into the future.

Conterminous United States↗

Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes

The instrumental record reveals that tropical cyclone activity is sensitive to oceanic and atmospheric variability on inter-annual and decadal scales. However, our understanding of the influence of climate on tropical cyclone behaviour is restricted by the short historical record and the sparseness of prehistorical reconstructions, particularly in the western North Pacific, where coastal communities suffer loss of life and livelihood from typhoons annually. Here, to explore past regional typhoon dynamics, we reconstruct three millennia of deep tropical North Pacific cyclogenesis. Combined with existing records, our reconstruction demonstrates that low-baseline typhoon activity prior to 1350 CE was followed by an interval of frequent storms during the Little Ice Age. This pattern, concurrent with hydroclimate proxy variability, suggests a centennial-scale link between Pacific hydroclimate and tropical cyclone climatology. An ensemble of global climate models demonstrates a migration of the Pacific Walker circulation and variability in two Pacific climate modes during the Little Ice Age, which probably contributed to enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the tropical western North Pacific. In the next century, projected changes to the Pacific Walker circulation and expansion of the tropics will invert these Little Ice Age hydroclimate trends, potentially reducing typhoon activity in the deep tropical Pacific.

Nature Geoscience↗

Wind-wave climate changes and their impacts

Wind-waves have an important role in Earth system dynamics through air–sea interactions and are key drivers of coastal and offshore hydro-morphodynamics that affect communities, ecosystems, infrastructure and operations. In this Review, we outline historical and projected changes in the wind-wave climate over the world’s oceans, and their impacts. Historical trend analysis is challenging owing to the presence of temporal inhomogeneities from increased numbers and types of assimilated data. Nevertheless, there is general agreement over a consistent historical increase in mean wave height of 1–3 cm yr −1 in the Southern and Arctic Oceans, with extremes increasing by >10 cm yr −1 for the latter. By 2100, mean wave height is projected to rise by 5–10% in the Southern Ocean and eastern tropical South Pacific, and by >100% in the Arctic Ocean. By contrast, reductions in mean wave height up to 10% are expected in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, with regional variability and uncertainty for changes in extremes. Differences between 1.5 °C and warmer worlds reveal the potential benefit of limiting anthropogenic warming. Resolving global-scale climate change impacts on coastal processes and atmospheric–ocean–wave interactions requires a step-up in observational and modeling capabilities, including enhanced spatiotemporal resolution and coverage of observations, more homogeneous data products, multidisciplinary model improvement, and better sampling of uncertainty with larger ensembles.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗

Hydrologic changes in the Brazos River Basin and implications for Great Plains fishes

Alteration of natural flow regimes from surface water and groundwater resource development has adversely impacted aquatic habitats of resident fish throughout the Great Plains. Two endangered cyprinids, Sharpnose Shiner Notropis oxyrhynchus and Smalleye Shiner N. buccula , were historically found throughout the Brazos River Basin in Texas. However, their range has been greatly reduced by construction of impoundments and stream depletion from groundwater pumping. Successful recruitment requires flowing, unobstructed river reaches of sufficient velocity to suspend semi-buoyant fertilized fish ova. The wide, shallow stream habitats the shiners utilize are now limited to the Upper Brazos River Basin upstream of Possum Kingdom Reservoir. This study assesses the relative importance of long-term climate variability, reservoir construction, and groundwater development on Upper Brazos streamflow regimes by (1) calculating flow metrics (2) evaluating groundwater-surface water interactions and long-term groundwater inflows, and (3) using mixed-effects regression models and Poisson regression. Results show that fish habitat has been threatened through several impacted hydrologic processes: (1) groundwater development has resulted in reduced mean daily flows, peak flows, and zero-flow days, (2) upstream impoundments have increased zero-flow days and reduced mean daily flows, and (3) lower mean daily flows and peak flows now occur during droughts, suggesting water resource development—particularly after 1970—has exacerbated drought effects. We illustrate this approach using the Upper Brazos River Basin; however, the methodology applied can inform management actions to maintain spawning flows for streams in similar altered basins.

Texas↗

Geomorphic responses of fluvial systems to climate change: A habitat perspective

Fluvial systems provide a variety of habitats that support thousands of species including many that are threatened or endangered. Moreover, these habitats, which range from aquatic and riparian to floodplain, are important for the variety of ecosystem services they provide. In addition to water temperature and streamflow change, geomorphic change is important and warrants consideration as one of the several potential threats to these habitats posed by climate change. The geomorphic response of fluvial systems to global warming in temperate environments, for example, caused by an increase in the frequency and magnitude of floods, is important because geomorphology is a primary determinant of habitat availability and quality. Possible geomorphic responses include increased erosion and (or) deposition in the river channel, riparian zone, and floodplain with associated habitat implications. Geomorphic changes caused by global warming can be beneficial (e.g., increased habitat complexity) or detrimental (e.g., mortality caused by scour or burial) to biota. The ability of a species to respond to and survive disturbances, including geomorphic changes, will depend on the nature of the disturbances and the sensitivity and adaptive capabilities of the species. Post-flood recovery often is rapid; however, for certain species (e.g., periphyton, macroinvertebrates), changes in community composition may persist. Increased flood frequency, sediment mobility, and associated geomorphic changes potentially will result in more frequent and persistent changes in habitat and community composition in the affected fluvial systems.

River Research and Applications↗

Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback

Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

Nature↗

NW CSC annual report fiscal year 2013

The Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC) was established in 2010 as one of eight regional Climate Science Centers created by the Department of the Interior (DOI). The NW CSC encompasses Washing-ton, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana and has overlapping boundaries with three Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs): the Great Northern, the Great Basin, and the North Pacific. With guidance from its Executive Stakeholder Advisory Committee (ESAC), the NW CSC and its partner LCCs are addressing the highest priority regional climate science needs of Northwest natural and cultural resource managers. Climate Science Centers tap into the scientific expertise of both the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and academic institutions. The NW CSC is supported by an academic consortium with the capacity to generate climate science and tools in a coordinated fashion, serving stakeholders across the Northwest region. This consortium is primarily represented by Oregon State University (OSU), the University of Id-ho (UI), and the University of Washington (UW). The academic consortium and USGS provide capabilities in climate science, ecology, impacts and vulnerability assessment, modeling, adaptation planning, and advanced information technology, all necessary to address and respond to climate change in the Northwest. University members also recruit and train graduate students and early-career scientists. This Annual Report summarizes progress for the goals set out in the NW CSC Strategic Plan for 2012-2015 (http://www.doi.gov/csc/northwest/upload/Northwest-CSC-Strategic-Plan.cfm) and the NW CSC Work-plan for Fiscal Year (FY) 2013 (October 1, 2012 through September 30, 2013). The report follows the structure of the Strategic Plan, which describes the five core services (Executive, Science, Data, Communications, and Education and Training) provided by the NW CSC in support of the stated vision: Our Vision: To become nationally recognized as a best-practice model for the provision of climate science and decision support tools to address conservation and management issues in the Pacific Northwest Region.

Report↗

Physical and hydrologic environments of the Mulberry coal reserves in eastern Kansas

Strippable reserves of Mulberry coal underlie an area of approximately 300 square miles of Miami, Linn, and Bourbon Counties of eastern Kansas. Although subject to State reclamation law, current and projected strip mining of this relatively thin coal seam could alter and hydrologic environment of the study area. Drained by the Marais des Cygnes and Little Osage Rivers and their tributaries, this area is characterized by low relief and moderately impermeable soils. Streamflows are poorly sustained by ground-water discharge and fluctuate widely due to climatic extremes and usage of surface-water supplies. Because ground-water supplies are generally unreliable in quantity and quality, surface water is used to meet most water requirements in the study area. Primary used of surface waters are for domestic supplies, maintenance of wildlife and recreational areas, and cooling needs at LaCygne Power Plant. The prevailing chemical type of the natural streamflow is calcium bicarbonate, with concentrations of dissolved solids generally less than 500 milligrams per liter and pH near neutral. Additional streamflow and water-quality data are needed to evaluate the premining characteristics of and the anticipated changes in the hydrologic environment as strip mining proceeds within the study area. A network of data-collection stations and a sampling scheme have been established to acquire this additional information. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Biogeography: An interweave of climate, fire, and humans

Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) is an icon of the southeastern United States and has been considered a foundation species in forests, woodlands, and savannas of the region (Schwarz 1907; Platt 1999). Longleaf pine is an avatar for the extensive pine-dominated, fire-dependent ecosystems (Figure 2.1) that provide habitats for thousands of species and have largely vanished from the landscape. Longleaf pine is one of the world's most resilient and fire-adapted trees (Keeley and Zedler 1998), widely perceived as the sole dominant in forests across a large area of the Southeast (Sargent 1884; Mohr 1896; Wahlenberg 1946). Longleaf pine was once a primary natural resource, providing high-quality timber, resins, and naval stores that fueled social changes and economic growth through the 19th and early 20th centuries.

Book chapter↗

Characterizing historic streamflow to support drought planning in the upper Missouri River basin

This project combined tree-ring based paleo and modern climate and hydrologic research aimed at understanding the primary influences on drought risk and water reliability in basins critical for western U.S. water resources. New paleohydrologic datasets and analyses were developed and applied to contextualize future streamflow projections and address specific water management questions. These questions centered around optimizing future water management protocols for numerous objectives ranging from improving agricultural water allocation during drought while maintaining instream flows for aquatic ecosystem health, to the testing of operations across large river systems with complex infrastructure critical for downstream flood control, navigation, and hydropower generation. USGS scientists worked closely with the Bureau of Reclamation to estimate both past and future drought risk at key management locations throughout the Missouri basin, the Milk and St. Mary River system, and across the major managed river systems in the western United States. These efforts provided a roadmap for future water management strategies under changing climate and water supply conditions, which are detailed in Reclamation’s newly completed Missouri Headwaters Basin Study, the 2021 SECURE Water Act Report, and the forthcoming update of the St. Mary and Milk Rivers Basin Study. Among the major scientific findings to emerge was a new understanding of the long-term (1200-year) history of drought variability for the Missouri River, which highlighted the unusual severity of the early 2000s drought across the Rocky Mountain headwaters and adjacent high plains. By combining the extended drought record with extensive modern and paleoclimate records, we document how warming exacerbates severities of naturally occurring droughts, with recent decades defined by “hot” droughts and the 2000s (2001-2010) drought ranking as the most severe event in 1200 years. Increasingly severe drought events such as this strain already over-allocated water resources that multiple sectors of society depend heavily upon.

upper Missouri River basin↗

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

Florida↗