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At least 1,261 records · Page 70Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Multiple dimensions define thresholds for population resilience of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica

A species' distribution depends on its tolerance to environmental conditions. These conditions are defined by a minimum, maximum, and optimal ranges of single and combined factors. Forays into environmental conditions outside the minimum or maximum tolerance of a species (i.e., thresholds) are predicted to have large effects on a species' population and may help predict population resilience in the face of changing conditions. Here, we explore ecological thresholds for an important fisheries species and ecosystem engineer, Crassostrea virginica (eastern oyster). In coastal Louisiana, extreme freshwater inputs from rivers and precipitation events impact estuarine salinity, which is a key driver of oyster population dynamics. Using daily salinity and monthly oyster abundance monitoring data across Louisiana estuaries, we explore low salinity exposure threshold levels for oysters. Two statistical approaches were applied, with each model highlighting a different operational definition of a threshold: random forest models identified a threshold as an abrupt change in the oyster abundance- salinity relationship, while Bayesian models identified an increased probability of oyster abundance dropping below a critical threshold, defined here as less than 50% of the 5-year mean. All model results indicate oysters in coastal Louisiana experience low salinity exposure thresholds, defined as the number of consecutive summer days of salinity levels less than 5. However, actual number of days and salinity threshold differed by statistical approach, oyster life stage, and estuary highlighting the multiple dimensions defining ecological thresholds. While thresholds are considered important benchmarks to inform management and assess population or ecosystem vulnerability, our results reveal the need to carefully relate threshold definition to management goals and to acknowledge that thresholds may be highly context dependent.

Louisiana↗
USGS2011

Evaluating impacts of subdivision density on shallow groundwater in Southeastern Wisconsin, USA

Using simple numerical groundwater flow models, we tested the impacts of suburban developments on groundwater levels and discharge to streams. We used lot sizes of 1, 3 and 5 acres (4000, 12,000 and 20,000 m 2 ) with one domestic well per lot that pumped water from shallow aquifers. Our modelling showed that pumping had little impact on water levels and groundwater discharge to streams if the developed area is of a moderate size. However, domestic wells had the potential to impact local groundwater levels and baseflows in large developments. In township-wide development scenarios of 1-acre (4000 m 2 ) lots, simulated drawdowns beneath developed areas ranged from 1 to 18 ft (0.3 to 5.5 m), and baseflow reductions ranged from 20 to 40%. Impacts generally were inversely proportional to lot size, recharge rate and hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer materials. Developments using individual domestic wells have the potential to impact local groundwater levels and surface water features. The impacts can range from negligible to severe, depending on local hydrogeologic conditions and on whether wastewater is recharged onsite or is removed from the basin. An assessment of groundwater impacts should be a part of the planning process for all suburban developments.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2007

Biological uptake of polychlorinated biphenyls by Macoma balthica from sediment amended with activated carbon

This work characterizes the efficacy of activated carbon amendment in reducing polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) bioavailability to clams ( Macoma balthica ) from field-contaminated sediment (Hunters Point Naval Shipyard, San Francisco Bay, CA, USA). Test methods were developed for the use of clams to investigate the effects of sediment amendment on biological uptake. Sediment was mixed with activated carbon for one month. Bioaccumulation tests (28 d) were employed to assess the relationships between carbon dose and carbon particle size on observed reductions in clam biological uptake of PCBs. Extraction and cleanup protocols were developed for the clam tissue. Efficacy of activated carbon treatment was found to increase with both increasing carbon dose and decreasing carbon particle size. Average reductions in bioaccumulation of 22, 64, and 84% relative to untreated Hunters Point sediment were observed for carbon amendments of 0.34, 1.7, and 3.4%, respectively. Average bioaccumulation reductions of 41, 73, and 89% were observed for amendments (dose = 1.7% dry wt) with carbon particles of 180 to 250, 75 to 180, and 25 to 75 μm, respectively, in diameter, indicating kinetic phenomena in these tests. Additionally, a biodynamic model quantifying clam PCB uptake from water and sediment as well as loss through elimination provided a good fit of experimental data. Model predictions suggest that the sediment ingestion route contributed 80 to 95% of the PCB burdens in the clams.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗
USGS2010

Assessing the vulnerability of public-supply wells to contamination: Glacial aquifer system in Woodbury, Connecticut

This fact sheet highlights findings from the vulnerability study of a public-supply well in Woodbury, Connecticut. The well typically produces water at the rate of 72 gallons per minute from the glacial aquifer system in the Pomperaug River Basin. Water samples were collected at the public-supply well and at monitoring wells installed in or near the simulated zone of contribution to the supply well. Samples of untreated water from the public-supply wellhead contained several types of undesirable constituents, including 11 volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrate, pesticides, uranium, and radon. Most of these constituents were detected at concentrations below drinking-water standards, where such standards exist. Only concentrations of the VOC trichlorethylene exceeded the Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 5 micrograms per liter (ug/L) established by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for drinking water. Radon concentrations exceeded a proposed-but not finalized-MCL of 300 picocuries per liter (pCi/L). Overall, the study findings point to four main factors that affect the movement and fate of contaminants and the vulnerability of the public-supply well in Woodbury: (1) groundwater age (how long ago water entered, or recharged, the aquifer); (2) the percentage of recharge received through urban areas; (3) the percentage of recharge received through dry wells and their proximity to the public-supply well; and (4) natural geochemical processes occurring within the aquifer system; that is, processes that affect the amounts and distribution of chemical substances in aquifer sediments and groundwater. A computer-model simulation of groundwater flow to the public-supply well was used to estimate the age of water particles entering the well along the length of the well screen. About 90 percent of the simulated flow to the well consists of water that entered the aquifer 9 or fewer years ago. Such young water is vulnerable to contaminants resulting from human activities, as indicated by the solvents, fuel components, road salt, and septic-system leachate that were detected in the glacial aquifer system during the current study. Age-dating combined with chemical modeling suggests that less than 2 percent of water produced by the public-supply well is water from the deep bedrock that is "old" (water that recharged, or entered, the aquifer before 1952). Such a small percentage of old groundwater entering the public-supply well offers little potential for dilution of young waters containing contaminants from human activities. Shallow groundwater that originated as recharge through urban areas generally had higher median concentrations and more detections of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) than did groundwater from the deep glacial deposits or fractured bedrock that originated mainly as recharge through agricultural and undeveloped land. Shallow groundwater was also found to be affected by road salt and septic-system leachate. A chemical mixing model indicates that up to 15 percent of nitrate in water from the supply well is likely from septic-system leachate. The Connecticut Department of Public Health has identified several potential sources of contamination in the commercial area of Woodbury (several light industrial or commercial properties where hazardous materials and petroleum products are used and stored). To reduce stormwater runoff in the commercial area, water from the parking lots and pavement is channeled into dry wells-drains that shunt water directly into the aquifer system, bypassing the soil and unsaturated zones. A computer-model simulation of groundwater flow indicates that approximately 16 percent of the water produced by the public-supply well is derived from runoff captured by these drains. Traveltime for water from the dry wells to the public-supply well ranges from about 1.5 to less than 4 years. Dry wells have the potential to enhance contaminant movement to the supply well, suggesting that stormwater-control methods cannot be considered separately from groundwater quality—they are linked. Water-quality protection in this setting depends on the entire community. If residents and businesses take steps to reduce input of manmade contaminants to groundwater, a positive effect on quality of the supply-well water might begin to be seen in less than 10 years, owing to the short residence time of water in the aquifer.

Connecticut↗
USGS2020

Biogeography of fire regimes in western US conifer forests: A trait-based approach

Aim Functional traits are a critical link between species distributions and the ecosystem processes that structure those species’ niches. Concurrent increases in the availability of functional trait data and our ability to model species distributions present an opportunity to develop functional trait biogeography, i.e. the mapping of functional traits across space. Functional trait biogeography can improve process-based predictions about the resistance of certain species assemblages to changing environmental conditions across landscape scales. We illustrate this concept by developing the first trait-based, quantitative ranking of fire resistance (adult tree survival) in North American conifer species, and mapping that fire resistance across space. Location and Time period Western Continental United States, present-day. Major taxa studied 29 common conifer tree species. Methods We compiled six traits for each species: three relating to tree morphology and three relating to litter flammability. We combined these traits into a single fire resistance score, and used community-weighted averaging to estimate the fire resistance scores of different forest communities, using interpolated species distribution and relative abundance data. Results Species associated with historically frequent fire have high fire resistance scores (e.g., Pinus ponderosa), reflected by thick bark, tall crowns, and flammable litter. Species associated with subalpine or arid conditions have low fire resistance scores (e.g., Picea engelmannii and Pinus edulis), reflected by thin bark, short stature, poor self-pruning and low litter flammability. A map of forest community fire resistance across the western US reveals agreement with independent assessments of historical fire regimes, while also identifying areas where community-wide species traits may be mismatched with historical fire regimes. Main conclusions Quantifying the functional traits that confer resistance to tree-killing fire provides a direct link between ecosystem disturbance and community resistance. Understanding this link is critical to evaluating long-term resilience of different forest types under dynamic fire regimes. Our work represents the first known spatial representation of fire-resistance traits at a regional scale, and as such provides a link between functional traits and biogeography relevant to a critical ecosystem process.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗
USGS2010

Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2019

Amphibian monitoring in hardwood forests: Optimizing methods for contaminant‐based compensatory restorations

Amphibians such as frogs, toads, and salamanders provide important services in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and have been proposed as useful indicators of progress and success for ecological restoration projects. Limited guidance is available, however, on the costs and benefits of different amphibian monitoring techniques that might be applied to sites restored in compensation for contaminant injury. We used a variety of methods to document the amphibian communities present at 4 restored bottomland hardwood sites in Indiana, USA, and to compare the information return and cost of each method. For 1 method—automated recording units—we also modeled the effect of varying levels of sampling effort on the number of species detected, using sample-based rarefaction and Bayesian nonlinear (Michaelis–Menten) mixed effects models. We detected 13 amphibian species across the restored sites, including 2 species of conservation concern in Indiana—northern leopard frogs ( Lithobates pipiens ) and Blanchard's cricket frogs ( Acris blanchardi ). Sites across a range of restoration ages demonstrated encouraging returns of amphibian communities. Although more mature sites showed greater species richness, recently restored sites still provided important habitat for amphibians, including species of conservation concern. Among the 4 methods compared, amphibian rapid assessment yielded the highest number of species detected and the greatest catch per unit effort, with the lowest per-site cost. Our analysis of level-of-effort effects in the rarefied acoustic data found that number of nights sampled was a better predictor of observed species richness than the number of hours sampled within a night or minutes sampled within an hour. These data will assist restoration practitioners in selecting amphibian monitoring methods appropriate for their site characteristics and budget.

Indiana↗
USGS2016

Environmental factors influence lesser scaup migration chronology and population monitoring

Identifying environmental metrics specific to lesser scaup ( Aythya affinis ; scaup) spring migration chronology may help inform development of conservation, management and population monitoring. Our objective was to determine how environmental conditions influence spring migration of lesser scaup to assess the effectiveness of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey in accurately estimating scaup populations. We first compared peak timing of mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and scaup migration from weekly ground surveys in North Dakota, USA because the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey is designed to capture annual mallard migration. As predicted, we detected that peak timing of scaup and mallard migrations differed in 25 of 36 years investigated (1980–2010). We marked scaup with satellite transmitters ( n = 78; 7,403 locations) at Long Point, Lake Erie, Ontario, Canada; Pool 19 of the Mississippi River, Iowa and Illinois, USA; and Presque Isle Bay, Lake Erie, Pennsylvania, USA. We tested the assumption that our marked scaup were representative of the continental population using the traditional survey area by comparing timing of migration of marked birds and scaup counted in the North Dakota Game and Fish Department survey. We detected a strong positive correlation between marked scaup and the survey data, which indicated that marked scaup were representative of the population. We subsequently used our validated sample of marked scaup to investigate the effects of annual variation in temperature, precipitation, and ice cover on spring migration chronology in the traditional and eastern survey areas of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey, 2005–2010. We evaluated competing environmental models to explain variation in timing and rate of scaup migration at large-scale and local levels. Spring migration of scaup occurred earlier and faster during springs with warmer temperatures and greater precipitation, variables known to influence energy budgets and wetland availability. Our results suggest that surveys designed to index abundance of breeding mallards is imprecise for estimating scaup abundance, and inaccurate at estimating breeding population size by survey stratum.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2017

Climate change and tree-line ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada: Habitat suitability modelling to inform high-elevation forest dynamics monitoring

Whitebark pine and foxtail pine serve foundational roles in the subalpine zone of the Sierra Nevada. They provide the dominant structure in tree-line forests and regulate key ecosystem processes and community dynamics. Climate change models suggest that there will be changes in temperature regimes and in the timing and magnitude of precipitation within the current distribution of these species, and these changes may alter the species’ distributional limits. Other stressors include the non-native pathogen white pine blister rust and mountain pine beetle, which have played a role in the decline of whitebark pine throughout much of its range. The National Park Service is monitoring status and trends of these species. This report provides complementary information in the form of habitat suitability models to predict climate change impacts on the future distribution of these species within Sierra Nevada national parks. We used maximum entropy modeling to build habitat suitability models by relating species occurrence to environmental variables. Species occurrence was available from 328 locations for whitebark pine and 244 for foxtail pine across the species’ distributions within the parks. We constructed current climate surfaces for modeling by interpolating data from weather stations. Climate surfaces included mean, minimum, and maximum temperature and total precipitation for January, April, July, and October. We downscaled five general circulation models for the 2050s and the 2090s from ~125 km2 to 1 km2 under both an optimistic and an extreme climate scenario to bracket potential climatic change and its influence on projected suitable habitat. To describe anticipated changes in the distribution of suitable habitat, we compared, for each species, climate scenario, and time period, the current models with future models in terms of proportional change in habitat size, elevation distribution, model center points, and where habitat is predicted to expand or contract. Overall, models indicated that suitable habitats for whitebark and foxtail pine are more likely to shift geographically within the parks by 2100 rather than decline precipitously. This implies park managers might focus conservation efforts on stressors other than climate change, working toward species resilience in the face of threats from introduced disease and elevated native insect damage. More specifically, further understanding of the incidence and severity of white pine blister rust and other stressors in high elevation white pines would help assess vulnerability from threats other than climate change.

California↗
USGS2024

Modeling the impacts of Glen Canyon Dam operations on Colorado River resources

At the time of this report, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) is writing two supplemental Environmental Impact Statements (sEIS ) and a new Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) that will analyze the effects of changing water flow out of Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) (U.S. Department of Interior, 2024). These actions have the potential to affect downstream resources, including threatened and endangered species, in the Grand Canyon. This report covers modeling support provided on the two sEIS by the USGS Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC; U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center). The first sEIS (Interim Guidelines sEIS) modifies Reclamation’s 2007 Colorado River Interim Guidelines for Lower Basin Shortages and Coordinated Operations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead (USBR, 2007) that determines annual water releases from GCD based on inflow to Lake Powell, the power generating requirements of GCD, and relative lake levels of Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Drought conditions have lowered the level of Lake Powell and may require GCD to release less water than was analyzed in the Interim EIS (7-million-acre feet/year). The effect of less water released, as well as lower lake levels and associated water quality concerns, on downstream resources was not analyzed in the 2007 Interim Guidelines EIS. Reclamation requested GCMRC support to provide models predicting the effects to resources of water releases lower than 7M acre feet/year, including models predicting effects to threatened and endangered species for use in a Biological Assessment.

Report↗
USGS2017

Assessing the influence of sustainable trail design and maintenance on soil loss

Natural-surfaced trail systems are an important infrastructure component providing a means for accessing remote protected natural area destinations. The condition and usability of trails is a critical concern of land managers charged with providing recreational access while preserving natural conditions, and to visitors seeking high quality recreational opportunities and experiences. While an adequate number of trail management publications provide prescriptive guidance for designing, constructing, and maintaining natural-surfaced trails, surprisingly little research has been directed at providing a scientific basis for this guidance. Results from a review of the literature and three scientific studies are presented to model and clarify the influence of factors that substantially influence trail soil loss and that can be manipulated by trail professionals to sustain high traffic while minimizing soil loss over time. Key factors include trail grade, slope alignment angle, tread drainage features, and the amount of rock in tread substrates. A new Trail Sustainability Rating is developed and offered as a tool for evaluating or improving the sustainability of existing or new trails.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS1998

A preliminary assessment of sources of nitrate in springwaters, Suwannee River basin, Florida

A cooperative study between the Suwannee River Water Management District (SRWMD) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is evaluating sources of nitrate in water from selected springs and zones in the Upper Floridan aquifer in the Suwannee River Basin. A multi-tracer approach, which consists of the analysis of water samples for naturally occurring chemical and isotopic indicators, is being used to better understand sources and chronology of nitrate contamination in the middle Suwannee River region. In July and August 1997, water samples were collected and analyzed from six springs and two wells for major ions, nutrients, and dissolved organic carbon. These water samples also were analyzed for environmental isotopes [ 18 O/ 16 O, D/H, 13 C/ 12 C, 15 N/ 14 N] to determine sources of water and nitrate. Chlorofluorocarbons (CCl 3 F, CCl 2 F 2 , and C 2 Cl 3 F 3 ) and tritium ( 3 H) were analyzed to assess the apparent ages (residence time) of springwaters and water from the Upper Floridan aquifer. Delta 15 N-NO 3 values in water from the six springs range from 3.94 per mil (Little River Springs) to 8.39 per mil (Lafayette Blue Spring). The range of values indicates that nitrate in the sampled springwaters most likely originates from a mixture of inorganic (fertilizers) and organic (animal wastes) sources, although the higher delta 15 N-NO 3 value for Lafayette Blue Spring indicates that an organic source of nitrogen is likely at this site. Water samples from the two wells sampled in Lafayette County have high delta 15 N-NO 3 values of 10.98 and 12.1 per mil, indicating the likelihood of an organic source of nitrate. These two wells are located near dairy and poultry farms, where leachate from animal wastes may contribute nitrate to ground water. Based on analysis of chlorofluorocarbons in ground water, the mean residence time of water in springs ranges from about 12 to 25 years. Chlorofluorocarbons-modeled recharge dates for water samples from the two shallow zones in the Upper Floridan aquifer range from 1985 to 1989.

Florida↗
USGS2011

Multimodel inference and adaptive management

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2024

Population genetics of museum specimens indicate decreasing genetic resiliency: The case of two bumble bees of conservation concern

Genetic resiliency is the likelihood that populations retain sufficient genetic diversity to respond to environmental change. It is rarely examined through time in conservation genetic studies due to challenges of acquiring and sequencing historical specimens. Focusing on populations of two sibling bumble bee species of conservation concern with different recent patterns of decline, we used museum specimens collected between 1960 and 2020 and 15 microsatellite markers to assess genetic resiliency (allelic richness, expected heterozygosity, and inbreeding) through time and across geographic space. We find evidence of decreasing allelic richness through time, starting at least 30 years before observed abundance declines in one species and at least 20 years before present in a species with apparently stable abundance. We also found increasing expected heterozygosity through time, indicating increased inbreeding, in the putatively stable species. We demonstrate that genetic measurements taken from specimens collected through time can be used to detect population decline in imperiled species before decreases in abundance are detected. We also demonstrate the importance of interpreting population genetic metrics within the context of historical patterns to assess species' conservation statuses. Finally, we discuss the limitations of currently available population genetic methods, including the influence of isolation by distance and sampling density on measurements of genetic structure, and the influence of demographic characteristics and choice of genetic markers on estimates of genetic diversity and structure. We call for further development of individual-based modeling methods to measure genetic structure, as opposed to commonly applied population-based metrics, to overcome these limitations.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2011

Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: A Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration

Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas]) population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones") with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity-a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2001

Assessment of selenium effects in lotic ecosystems

The selenium literature has grown substantially in recent years to encompass new information in a variety of areas. Correspondingly, several different approaches to establishing a new water quality criterion for selenium have been proposed since establishment of the national water quality criterion in 1987. Diverging viewpoints and interpretations of the selenium literature have lead to opposing perspectives on issues such as establishing a national criterion based on a sediment-based model, using hydrologic units to set criteria for stream reaches, and applying lentic-derived effects to lotic environments. This Commentary presents information on the lotic verse lentic controversy. Recently, an article was published that concluded that no adverse effects were occurring in a cutthroat trout population in a coldwater river with elevated selenium concentrations (C. J. Kennedy, L. E. McDonald, R. Loveridge, and M. M. Strosher, 2000, Arch. Environ. Contam. Toxicol. 39, 46–52). This article has added to the controversy rather than provided further insight into selenium toxicology. Information, or rather missing information, in the article has been critically reviewed and problems in the interpretations are discussed.

Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety↗
USGS2025

Regional high-frequency monitoring revealed chloride concentrations in exceedance of ecological benchmarks in urban streams across the Delaware River Basin, USA

Rising chloride concentrations pose critical risks to freshwater stream ecosystems in temperate regions like the Delaware River Basin (DRB), USA, where winter deicer applications ( i.e. , road salt) are common. Increasing chloride concentrations have been documented in the region, but the extent to which chloride exceeds regulatory benchmarks remains unclear because detection of exceedances requires continuous monitoring of chloride ( i.e. , hourly or daily). A network of 82 non-tidal continuous specific conductance (SC) monitoring sites, spanning varied land use and geological settings, was established across the DRB to address this research need. First, a cluster analysis was conducted to group sites based on their watershed characteristics. Next, regression models for sites and clusters were developed to predict chloride using SC as a proxy. Finally, daily mean and hourly mean chloride concentration predictions were made for a three-year period (2020–2022) at the 82 study sites and analyzed to determine where and when chloride exceeded federal regulatory benchmarks. Chloride exceedance events occurred at 35% of the sites, all of which had 5% impervious cover or greater. Seasonally elevated chloride also was predicted at sites with less than 5% impervious cover. Variability in chloride patterns likely was influenced by deicer material types, winter weather patterns, geological settings, and gaps in data coverage. This study demonstrated the value of SC as a proxy for predicting chloride concentrations and showed how SC-chloride regression relationships vary across settings. More broadly, this study highlighted the value of continuous water quality monitoring to assess effects of freshwater salinization at a regional scale.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylv↗
USGS2017

Predictability and selection of hydrologic metrics in riverine ecohydrology

The natural flow regime is critical to the health of riverine ecosystems. Many hydrologic metrics (HMs) have been developed to describe natural flow regimes, quantify flow alteration, and provide the hydrologic foundation for the development of environmental flow standards. Many applications require the use of models to predict expected natural values of HMs from basin characteristics at sites with no observed records of unimpaired flows. However, the error associated with HM estimation has not been evaluated. The primary goal of our study was to provide guidance for river scientists and managers in the selection, use, and interpretation of HMs for stream classification and hydroecological investigations of river ecosystems. We evaluated the predictability of a broad suite of HMs for the conterminous USA based on random forest statistical models. We also examined how the predictability of metrics varied among unique components of the flow regime. Roughly 40% of 612 HMs we examined could be predicted reliably from basin characteristics. The predictable metrics were disproportionately represented in 5 flow components: asymmetry, seasonality, magnitude, variability, and average monthly flows. Most metrics that represent extreme hydrological events (i.e., high and low flows) could not be reliably predicted. Roughly ⅔ of the evaluated HMs were incalculable or highly biased at intermittent/ephemeral streams because of the need for logarithmic transformations or scaling by other HMs, such as mean flows or percentile flow thresholds. Scaling metrics by drainage area tended to improve predictability. We recommend that the predictability of HMs be given greater consideration in studies and applications in which they are used to characterize and assess alteration of streamflow regimes.

Freshwater Science↗