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USGS2010

Population structure and genetic diversity of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in fragmented landscapes at the northern edge of their range

Range-edge dynamics and anthropogenic fragmentation are expected to impact patterns of genetic diversity, and understanding the influence of both factors is important for effective conservation of threatened wildlife species. To examine these factors, we sampled greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) from a declining, fragmented region at the northern periphery of the species’ range and from a stable, contiguous core region. We genotyped 2,519 individuals at 13 microsatellite loci from 104 leks in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Montana, and Wyoming. Birds from northern Montana, Alberta, and Saskatchewan were identified as a single population that exhibited significant isolation by distance, with the Milk River demarcating two subpopulations. Both subpopulations exhibited high genetic diversity with no evidence that peripheral regions were genetically depauperate or highly structured. However, river valleys and a large agricultural region were significant barriers to dispersal. Leks were also composed primarily of non-kin, rejecting the idea that leks form because of male kin association. Northern Montana sage-grouse are maintaining genetic connectivity in fragmented and northern peripheral habitats via dispersal through and around various forms of fragmentation.

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2009

A spatial model to prioritize sagebrush landscapes in the intermountain west (U.S.A.) for restoration

The ecological integrity of Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in the Intermountain West (U.S.A.) has been diminished by synergistic relationships among human activities, spread of invasive plants, and altered disturbance regimes. An aggressive effort to restore Sagebrush habitats is necessary if we are to stabilize or improve current habitat trajectories and reverse declining population trends of dependent wildlife. Existing economic resources, technical impediments, and logistic difficulties limit our efforts to a fraction of the extensive area undergoing fragmentation, degradation, and loss. We prioritized landscapes for restoring Sagebrush habitats within the intermountain western region of the United States using geographic information system (GIS) modeling techniques to identify areas meeting a set of conditions based on (1) optimum abiotic and biotic conditions favorable for revegetation of Sagebrush; (2) potential to increase connectivity of Sagebrush habitats in the landscape to benefit wildlife; (3) location of population strongholds for Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, a species of conservation concern); and (4) potential impediments to successful restoration created by Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum, an invasive exotic annual grass). Approximately 5.8 million ha in southwestern Idaho, northern Nevada, and eastern Oregon met our criteria for restoring Wyoming big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis) and 5.1 million ha had high priority for restoring Mountain big sagebrush (A. tridentata ssp. vaseyana). Our results represent an integral component in a hierarchical framework after which site-specific locations for treatments can be focused within high-priority areas. Using this approach, long-term restoration strategies can be implemented that combine local-scale treatments and objectives with large-scale ecological processes and priorities. ?? 2008 Society for Ecological Restoration International.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2021

Livestock grazing, climatic variation, and breeding phenology jointly shape disease dynamics and survival in a wild amphibian

Wildlife responses to infectious disease can be influenced by environmental stressors that alter host-pathogen dynamics. We investigated how livestock grazing, climatic variation, and breeding phenology influence disease prevalence and annual survival in boreal toad ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) populations challenged with Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ), a fungal pathogen implicated in global amphibian declines. We conducted a five-year (2015–2019) capture-recapture study of boreal toads ( n = 1301) inhabiting pastures grazed by cattle in western Wyoming, USA. We employed structural equation models to determine whether the effects of climatic variation on Bd prevalence were direct or mediated through effects on breeding phenology and multi-state models to explore the interplay of grazing, weather, and Bd infection on adult survival. Higher winter snowpack was linked with shorter spring breeding seasons, which were associated with lower Bd prevalence. Boreal toads infected with Bd suffered increased mortality, but only at relatively cool temperatures. Although cattle grazing created warmer microclimates, likely by reducing vegetation cover, grazing-induced habitat changes did not scale up to influence adult survival. Our results suggest that boreal toads in cooler environments face increased risk of disease-induced mortality, possibly because infected individuals are not able to elevate body temperature to reduce or clear infection. More generally, we demonstrate that host-pathogen dynamics can be shaped jointly by independent and interactive effects of livestock grazing, breeding season length, and climatic variation. Future investigations of wildlife responses to disease therefore may benefit from considering anthropogenic land use and climatic regimes, including the effect of weather on host phenology.

Wyoming↗

USGS1999

How grazing and soil quality affect native and exotic plant diversity in Rocky Mountain grasslands

We used multiscale plots to sample vascular plant diversity and soil characteristics in and adjacent to 26 long-term grazing exclosure sites in Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, and South Dakota, USA. The exclosures were 7–60 yr old (31.2 ± 2.5 yr, mean ± 1 se ). Plots were also randomly placed in the broader landscape in open rangeland in the same vegetation type at each site to assess spatial variation in grazed landscapes. Consistent sampling in the nine National Parks, Wildlife Refuges, and other management units yielded data from 78 1000-m 2 plots and 780 1-m 2 subplots. We hypothesized that native species richness would be lower in the exclosures than in grazed sites, due to competitive exclusion in the absence of grazing. We also hypothesized that grazed sites would have higher native and exotic species richness compared to ungrazed areas, due to disturbance (i.e., the intermediate-disturbance hypothesis) and the conventional wisdom that grazing may accelerate weed invasion. Both hypotheses were soundly rejected. Although native species richness in 1-m 2 subplots was significantly higher ( P < 0.05) in grazed sites, we found nearly identical native or exotic species richness in 1000-m 2 plots in exclosures (31.5 ± 2.5 native and 3.1 ± 0.5 exotic species), adjacent grazed plots (32.6 ± 2.8 native and 3.2 ± 0.6 exotic species), and randomly selected grazed plots (31.6 ± 2.9 native and 3.2 ± 0.6 exotic species). We found no significant differences in species diversity (Hill’s diversity indices, N 1 and N 2), evenness (Hill’s ratio of evenness, E 5), cover of various life-forms (grasses, forbs, and shrubs), soil texture, or soil percentage of N and C between grazed and ungrazed sites at the 1000-m 2 plot scale. The species lists of the long-ungrazed and adjacent grazed plots overlapped just 57.9 ± 2.8%. This difference in species composition is commonly attributed solely to the difference in grazing regimes. However, the species lists between pairs of grazed plots (adjacent and distant 1000-m 2 plots) in the same vegetation type overlapped just 48.6 ± 3.6%, and the ungrazed plots and distant grazed plots overlapped 49.4 ± 3.6%. Differences in vegetation and soils between grazed and ungrazed sites were minimal in most cases, but soil characteristics and elevation were strongly correlated with native and exotic plant diversity in the study region. For the 78 1000-m 2 plots, 59.4% of the variance in total species richness was explained by percentage of silt (coefficient = 0.647, t = 5.107, P < 0.001), elevation (coefficient = 0.012, t = 5.084, P < 0.001), and total foliar cover (coefficient = 0.110, t = 2.104, P < 0.039). Only 12.8% of the variance in exotic species cover (log 10 cover) was explained by percentage of clay (coefficient = −0.011, t = −2.878, P < 0.005), native species richness (coefficient = −0.011, t = −2.156, P < 0.034), and log 10 N (coefficient = 2.827, t = 1.860, P < 0.067). Native species cover and exotic species richness and frequency were also significantly positively correlated with percentage of soil N at the 1000-m 2 plot scale. Our research led to five broad generalizations about current levels of grazing in these Rocky Mountain grasslands: (1) grazing probably has little effect on native species richness at landscape scales; (2) grazing probably has little effect on the accelerated spread of most exotic plant species at landscape scales; (3) grazing affects local plant species and life-form composition and cover, but spatial variation is considerable; (4) soil characteristics, climate, anddisturbances may have a greater effect on plant species diversity than do current levels of grazing; and (5) few plant species show consistent, directional responses to grazing or cessation of grazing.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2003

Status assessment and conservation plan for the Western Burrowing Owl in the United States

The Western Burrowing Owl ( Athene cunicularia hypugaea ) is a grassland specialist distributed throughout w. North America, primarily in open areas with short vegetation and bare ground in desert, grassland, and shrub-steppe environments. Burrowing Owls are dependent on the presence of fossorial mammals (primarily prairie dogs and ground squirrels), whose burrows are used for nesting and roosting. Burrowing Owls are protected by the Migratory Bird Treaty Act in the United States and Mexico. They are listed as Endangered in Canada and Threatened in Mexico. They are considered by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to be a Bird of Conservation Concern at the national level, in three USFWS regions, and in nine Bird Conservation Regions . At the state level, Burrowing Owls are listed as Endangered in Minnesota, Threatened in Colorado, and as a Species of Concern in California, Montana, Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

Biological Technical Publication↗

USGS2002

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2001

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2001 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. In addition to our normal monitoring, we completed an array of studies addressing the potential impacts of winter recreation on denning grizzly bears. This research was in response to a lawsuit filed against the Gallatin National Forest and subsequent need to develop a biological assessment addressing effects of snowmobile use on grizzly bears (Chemy 2001). Research results were also used by the National Park Service for a biological assessment and winter use plan (U.S. Department of the Interior 2001). The Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) was able to use existing data collected from collared bears to address several issues and data needs for both agencies. Denning chronology (Haroldson et al. 2002), denning areas (Podruzny et al. 2002), and grizzly distribution (Schwartz et al. 2002) were all addressed. Information from these studies was presented at the International Association for Bear Research and Management (IBA) in Jackson Hole, Wyoming in 2001, and all 3 manuscripts have been officially accepted for publication in the journal Ursus . Abstracts are attached to this report (Appendices A, B. and C). Additionally, members of the study team participated in a workshop held by the National Park Service to develop monitoring protocols addressing the impacts of snowmobiles on wildlife (Graves and Reams 2001). The study team has also been working on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of-the-year (COY). These counts are used to establisha minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS) 1993). Efforts by the Study Team to calculate more statistically sound estimates of population size have been underway for sometime. Eberhardt and Knight (1996) applied a Peterson-type capturemark-recapture estimator to unduplicated counts, and Boyce et al. (1999) recommended a maximum likelihood method. These methods assumed equal sightability of families, which was unrealistic for the Yellowstone population. Consequently, Boyce et al. (2001) recommended using a negative binomial distribution but found that they obtained reasonable results only when the coefficient of variation among sightings was assumed to be constant overtime. This assumption is also difficult to justify. Recent work by the study team (Keating et al. 2002) evaluated the application of 7 nonparametric estimators to assess their performance in determining the number of females with COY in a given year. This work identified 2 estimators that performed well using Monte Carlo simulations over a range of sampling conditions deemed plausible for the Yellowstone population: Chao's estimator (Chao 1984) and the sample coverage estimator (Chao and Lee 1992, Lee and Chao 1994). This work was presented at the IBA meeting in Jackson and the manuscript has been accepted in the journal Ursus . An abstract of this work is attached to this annual report (Appendix D). We are currently refining the application of these techniques to expand the predicted number of females with COY into a total population estimate. We anticipate completion of that work in 2002 or 2003.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Large-scale control site selection for population monitoring: an example assessing Sage-grouse trends

Human impacts on wildlife populations are widespread and prolific and understanding wildlife responses to human impacts is a fundamental component of wildlife management. The first step to understanding wildlife responses is the documentation of changes in wildlife population parameters, such as population size. Meaningful assessment of population changes in potentially impacted sites requires the establishment of monitoring at similar, nonimpacted, control sites. However, it is often difficult to identify appropriate control sites in wildlife populations. We demonstrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) data across large spatial scales to select biologically relevant control sites for population monitoring. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hearafter, sage-grouse) are negatively affected by energy development, and monitoring of sage-grouse population within energy development areas is necessary to detect population-level responses. Weused population data (1995–2012) from an energy development area in Wyoming, USA, the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), and GIS data to identify control sites that were not impacted by energy development for population monitoring. Control sites were surrounded by similar habitat and were within similar climate areas to the ARPA. We developed nonlinear trend models for both the ARPA and control sites and compared long-term trends from the 2 areas. We found little difference between the ARPA and control sites trends over time. This research demonstrated an approach for control site selection across large landscapes and can be used as a template for similar impact-monitoring studies. It is important to note that identification of changes in population parameters between control and treatment sites is only the first step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie those changes. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Wyoming↗

USGS2021

Variable effects of wind-energy development on seasonal habitat selection of pronghorn

In the face of climate change, wind energy represents an important alternative to oil and gas extraction to meet increasing energy demands, but it has the potential to disrupt wildlife populations. Because behavioral adjustments, such as altered habitat selection, are a primary way that long-lived species respond to novel disturbances, we evaluated effects of wind energy development on pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ) space use and habitat selection. Using data from GPS-collared female pronghorn in the Shirley Basin of south-central Wyoming, USA, we tested four potential effects of wind turbines on pronghorn space use during the summer and winter: (1) displacement away from wind turbines, (2) increase in size of home ranges, (3) short-term avoidance behavior within home ranges, and (4) changes in avoidance behavior within home ranges over time. We monitored 166 individuals over five summers (2010, 2011, 2018, 2019, and 2020) and 142 individuals over five winters (2009/2010, 2010/2011, 2011/2012, 2018/2019, and 2019/2020) and used resource selection functions to evaluate selection relative to turbines after controlling for other habitat factors, such as snow depth. Although a lack of consistent negative effects of wind turbines on pronghorn across years suggested that wind energy development may have less severe and more intermittent effects on pronghorn than oil and gas development has had on other ungulates, there was a trend toward increased displacement during the study and behavioral avoidance was apparent for individuals in close proximity to turbines. However, pronghorn were highly variable in their fine-scale habitat selection, across both individuals and years, which could make effects of wind energy development difficult to detect. Nevertheless, some individuals, particularly those close to wind-energy facilities, did avoid turbines, which could translate to population-level behavioral or demographic changes over time and affect the resilience and stability of the population. Over time, the accumulation of development, including wind turbines, roads, and fences, can both limit movement and fragment habitat, potentially reaching a critical threshold beyond which populations are negatively impacted.

Wyoming↗

USGS2011

Effectiveness of post-fire seeding at the Fitzner-Eberhardt Arid Land Ecology Reserve, Washington

In August 2007, the Milepost 17 and Wautoma fires burned a combined total of 77,349 acres (31,302 hectares) of the Fitzner-Eberhardt Arid Land Ecology Reserve (ALE), part of the Hanford Reach National Monument administered by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Mid-Columbia National Wildlife Refuge. In 2009, the USFWS implemented a series of seeding and herbicide treatments to mitigate potential negative consequences of these fires, including mortality of native vegetation, invasion of Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass), and soil erosion. Treatments included combinations of seeding (drill and aerial), herbicides, and one of six different mixtures of species. Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis (Wyoming big sagebrush) also was planted by hand in a small area in the southern end of the fire perimeter. Due to differences in plant communities prior to the fire and the multiple treatments applied, treatments were grouped into five treatment associations including mid-elevation aerial seedings, low-elevation aerial seedings, low-elevation drill seedings, high-elevation drill seeding, and no seeding treatments. Data collected at the mid-elevation aerial seedings indicate that the seeding did not appear to increase the density of seedlings compared to the non-seeded area in 2010. At the low-elevation aerial seedings, there were significantly more seedlings at seeded areas as compared to non-seeded areas. Low densities of existing perennial plants probably fostered a low-competition environment enabling seeds to germinate and emerge in 2010 during adequate moisture. Low-elevation drill seedings resulted in significant emergence of seeded grasses in 2009 and 2010 and forbs in 2010. This was likely due to adequate precipitation and that the drill seeding assured soil-to-seed contact. At the high-elevation drill seeding, which was implemented in 2009, there were a high number of seedlings in 2010. Transplanting of A. tridentata following the fires resulted in variable survival rates that warrant further testing; however, transplants located closer to washes tended to have the highest survival rates. Overall, the low-elevation aerial and drill seedings, and the high-elevation drill seedings resulted in significant numbers of seedlings. Further research is needed on methods that provide land managers with critical information about whether or not to seed post-fire areas including status of pre-fire vegetation and estimates of plant mortality due to fire.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2026

Integrating climate and anthropogenic dynamics can inform multifaceted management for declining mule deer populations

Wildlife and their habitats face profound challenges from climate and landscape-scale changes that extend beyond the influence and time horizon of most biologists and land managers. In this changing environment, long-term datasets can enhance assessments of how demographic trends respond to interactions among local (e.g., habitat restoration decisions) and broad extent drivers, including energy development, to shape wildlife populations. Although many studies evaluate habitat selection or demographics for a single population, our multipopulation, multiscale study quantifies the influence of local management actions given broader environmental forces using both immediate and lagged effects. This approach may be particularly important for species with high site fidelity that may have less adaptive capacity, including mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), which are experiencing widespread population declines. We analyzed a 40-year (1980–2019) dataset for 37 mule deer populations across Wyoming, USA, to test hypotheses about and quantify the relative influence of conditions within winter use areas on annual rates of juvenile recruitment. Recruitment has been strongly affected by multiple factors largely beyond the control of managers. Land cover (agriculture and shrubland) had the largest positive effects on recruitment, with estimates more than twice the magnitude of other variables, but also had limited presence in some winter use areas. The next strongest effect sizes were shared by energy developments (including oil/gas and wind energy) and climatic conditions, which, except for wind turbines, had broad distributions across winter use areas. Recruitment increased with higher mean winter temperatures and summer precipitation, but declined with wind, oil and gas developments, cumulative drought, and wildfire. Expected increases in drought and decreases in summer precipitation may constrain options to sustain mule deer populations. Although mule deer recruitment may sometimes be enhanced through habitat restoration, effects varied with treatment type, habitat type, and time since treatment. Given large constraining effects of temperature and drought, supporting drought resiliency for important habitat may be useful. Our results can be used to weigh the relative strength of threats and the value of restoration actions, interpret historic demographic change, prioritize populations for conservation, and optimize options for wildlife habitat management.

Wyoming↗

USGS2017

Monitoring the southwestern Wyoming landscape—A foundation for management and science

Natural resource monitoring involves repeated collections of resource condition data and analyses to detect possible changes and identify underlying causes of changes. For natural resource agencies, monitoring provides the foundation for management and science. Specifically, analyses of monitoring data allow managers to better understand effects of land-use and other changes on important natural resources and to achieve their conservation and management goals. Examples of natural resources monitored on public lands include wildlife habitats, plant productivity, animal movements and population trends, soil chemistry, and water quality and quantity. Broader definitions of monitoring also recognize the need for scientifically valid data to help support planning efforts and informed decisions, to develop adaptive management strategies, and to provide the means for evaluating management outcomes.

Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Identifying priority chronic wasting disease surveillance areas for mule deer in Montana

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal prion disease that affects a variety of ungulate species including mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ). As of 2014, no CWD cases had been reported in free-ranging ungulates in Montana. However, nearby cases in Canada, Wyoming, and the Dakotas indicated that the disease was encroaching on Montana's borders. Mule deer are native and common throughout Montana, and they represent a significant portion of the total hunter-harvested cervids in the state. The arrival of CWD in Montana may have significant ecosystem and socioeconomic impacts as well as potential consequences for wildlife management. We used 18,879 mule deer locations from 892 individual deer collected during 1975–2011 and modeled habitat selection for 7 herds in 5 of the 7 wildlife management regions in Montana. We estimated resource selection functions (RSF) in a Bayesian framework to predict summer and winter habitat preferences for mule deer. We estimated deer abundance from flyover counts for each region, and used the RSF predictions as weights to distribute the deer across the region. We then calculated the distance to the nearest known infected herds. We predicted areas of high risk of CWD infection in mule deer as areas with densities above the median density estimate and within the lowest quartile of distances to known infected herds. We identified these areas, the southeast corner of Montana and the north-central border near Alberta and Saskatchewan, as priority areas for CWD surveillance and management efforts.

Montana↗

USGS2022

Identifying translocation sites for a climate relict population of Finescale Dace

Translocation is a management strategy that seeks to address threats to fish and wildlife populations by establishing new populations in ecologically suitable areas. Populations of Finescale Dace Chrosomus neogaeus in the Great Plains may benefit from translocation, as they exhibit a climate relict natural history that has led to a disjunct distribution and minimal dispersal opportunities. We assessed the translocation suitability of sites for Finescale Dace in the Belle Fourche River basin, Wyoming–South Dakota, using a ranking approach for output from multiple analyses. We used multivariate analysis to evaluate dissimilarity in fish occurrence and habitat between sites with and without Finescale Dace in contemporary surveys (2018–2019; n = 68). We further evaluated the capacity for sites to support Finescale Dace under base case and future climate change scenarios using the predicted probability of occurrence ( P ) from species distribution models (SDMs) fitted with basinwide fish occurrence data from surveys conducted in 2008–2019 ( n = 124) and spatially continuous environmental variables, including forecasted stream temperature scenarios. Sites with Finescale Dace tended to occur close to standing waterbodies, contained emergent vegetation cover, and did not exhibit large overlap in species-space with either native or nonnative species. Predicted P of Finescale Dace exhibited nonlinear relationships with mean August stream temperature, channel slope, and base flow index. The amount of suitable habitat (i.e., high predicted P ) declined with forecasted stream warming scenarios in the SDMs. This study highlights the utility of using field observations, historical data, and forecasted climate change scenarios to assess translocation site suitability and inform management of at-risk native fish populations, and the results may be transferable to other populations with limited data or restricted distributions.

South Dakota, Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count frequency also improved precision. These results suggest that the current distribution of count timings available in lek count databases such as that of Wyoming (conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise) can be used to estimate sage-grouse population trends without reducing precision or accuracy relative to trends from counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. However, only 10% of all Wyoming counts in our sample (1995−2014) were conducted 61−90 minutes after sunrise, and further increasing this percentage may still bias trend estimates because of declining lek attendance.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2020

Parsing the effects of demography, climate, and management on recurrent brucellosis outbreaks in elk

1. Zoonotic pathogens can harm human health and well-being directly or by impacting livestock. Pathogens that spillover from wildlife can also impair conservation efforts if humans perceive wildlife as pests. Brucellosis, caused by the bacterium Brucella abortus, circulates in elk and bison herds of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and poses a risk to cattle and humans. Our goal was to understand the relative effects of climatic drivers, host demography, and management control programs on disease dynamics. 2. Using >20 years of serologic, demographic, and environmental data on brucellosis in elk, we built stochastic compartmental models to assess the influences of climate forcing, herd immunity, population turnover, and management interventions on pathogen transmission. Data were collected at feedgrounds visited in winter by free-ranging elk in Wyoming, USA. 3. Snowpack, hypothesized as a driver of elk aggregation and thus brucellosis transmission, was strongly correlated across feedgrounds. We expected this variable to drive synchronized disease dynamics across herds. Instead, we demonstrate asynchronous epizootics driven by variation in demographic rates. 4. We evaluated the effectiveness of test-and-slaughter of seropositive female elk at two feedgrounds. Test-and-slaughter temporarily reduced herd-level seroprevalence but likely reduced herd immunity while removing few infectious individuals, resulting in subsequent outbreaks once the intervention ceased. We simulated an alternative strategy of removing seronegative female elk and found it would increase herd immunity, yielding fewer infections. We evaluated a second experimental treatment wherein feeding density was reduced at one feedground, but we found no evidence for an effect despite a decade of implementation. 5. Synthesis and applications: Positive serostatus is often weakly correlated with infectiousness but is nevertheless used to make management decisions including lethal removal in wildlife disease systems. We show how this can have adverse consequences whereas efforts that maintain herd immunity can have longer-term protective effects. Climatic drivers may not result in synchronous disease dynamics across populations unless vital rates are also similar because demographic factors have a large influence on disease patterns.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2024

Chronic wasting disease alters the movement behavior and habitat use of mule deer during clinical stages of infection

Integrating host movement and pathogen data is a central issue in wildlife disease ecology that will allow for a better understanding of disease transmission. We examined how adult female mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) responded behaviorally to infection with chronic wasting disease (CWD). We compared movement and habitat use of CWD-infected deer ( n = 18) to those that succumbed to starvation (and were CWD-negative by ELISA and IHC; n = 8) and others in which CWD was not detected ( n = 111, including animals that survived the duration of the study) using GPS collar data from two distinct populations collared in central Wyoming, USA during 2018–2022. CWD and predation were the leading causes of mortality during our study (32/91 deaths attributed to CWD and 27/91 deaths attributed to predation). Deer infected with CWD moved slower and used lower elevation areas closer to rivers in the months preceding death compared with uninfected deer that did not succumb to starvation. Although CWD-infected deer and those that died of starvation moved at similar speeds during the final months of life, CWD-infected deer used areas closer to streams with less herbaceous biomass than starved deer. These behavioral differences may allow for the development of predictive models of disease status from movement data, which will be useful to supplement field and laboratory diagnostics or when mortalities cannot be quickly retrieved to assess cause-specific mortality. Furthermore, identifying individuals who are sick before predation events could help to assess the extent to which disease mortality is compensatory with predation. Finally, infected animals began to slow down around 4 months prior to death from CWD. Our approach for detecting the timing of infection-induced shifts in movement behavior may be useful in application to other disease systems to better understand the response of wildlife to infectious disease.

Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Evaluating management alternatives for Wyoming elk feedgrounds in consideration of chronic wasting disease

Executive Summary The authors used decision and modeling analyses to evaluate management alternatives for a decision on whether to permit Cervus canadensis (elk) feeding on two sites on Bridger-Teton National Forest, Dell Creek and Forest Park. Supplemental feeding of elk could increase the transmission of chronic wasting disease (CWD) locally and disease spread regionally, potentially impacting elk populations over time with wider implications for Odocoileus hemionus (mule deer) and Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) populations and hunting, tourism, and regional revenue. Supplemental feeding is thought to improve overwinter elk survival and reduce the commingling of elk with cattle during months when brucellosis transmission risk is highest. We worked with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service to identify their fundamental objectives and associated performance metrics related to this feedground decision. We then developed disease and habitat selection models to quantify the effect of four management alternatives on select performance metrics. The four alternatives were to continue to permit feeding, phaseout permits to feed in three years, permit feeding on an emergency basis, or stop permitting feeding. In this report, we present methods and summarized results on disease and habitat selection models and summaries of other performance metrics analyzed by BIO-WEST, Inc. and Cirrus Ecological Solutions as part of an Environmental Impact Statement. Data from Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD) supported the assumption that supplemental elk feeding allows for larger elk populations in a region. We documented that herd units (HU) without feedgrounds had 23 percent lower densities of elk per area of winter range when compared against HUs with feedgrounds, after accounting for differences in sightability of elk during counts on and off feedgrounds. Thus, throughout our analyses, we assumed feedground closures would reduce elk carrying capacity resulting in an average decline of previously fed elk population segments by 23 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [11 percent, 35 percent]) by year 20. Most of that decline occurred within the first few years after a feedground ceases to operate. We used a panel of CWD experts to help estimate CWD trans-mission in fed and unfed elk population segments. In aggregate, the expert panel estimated that median values of direct and indirect transmission of CWD are expected to be 1.9 and 4 times higher, respectively, in fed elk populations compared to unfed elk. We used these disease transmission estimates in combination with local elk demographic rates and carrying capacity estimates to project disease and population dynamics. In year 20, we predicted CWD prevalence would increase to 42 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [29 percent, 55 percent]), and 13 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [4 percent, 26 percent]) on average for fed and unfed elk population segments, respectively, given a starting prevalence of 1.6 percent. The prevalence estimates for the unfed elk population segments are in the range of previous observations of CWD in elk in the western United States. The average CWD prevalence from 2016 to 2018 in the unfed elk population of Wind Cave National Park in South Dakota was 18 percent overall but up to 30 percent in some regions (Sargeant and others, 2021). Meanwhile, CWD prevalence in the Iron Mountain and Laramie Peak elk herds in Wyoming from 2016 to 2018 was 14 percent and 7 percent, respectively, despite being present since at least 2002 (Wyoming Game and Fish Department, 2020b). From 2016 to 2020, elk that were fed at Dell Creek and Forest Park constituted on average 12–20 percent of the total elk on their respective HUs. As a result, the differences between management alternatives are modest when considering the closure of only one feedground on a HU. The no feeding alternative for Forest Park resulted in a CWD prevalence of 17 percent (SD = 7 percent) in the Afton HU compared to 20 percent (SD = 7 percent) with continued feeding by year 20. In the Upper Green River HU, no feeding on Dell Creek resulted in a CWD prevalence of 27 percent (SD = 6 percent) compared to 30 percent (SD = 5 percent) with continued feeding. In terms of disease-associated mortality, we predicted the closure of Forest Park and Dell Creek feedgrounds would reduce the total number of CWD mortalities by 9 percent in the Upper Green River HU and 26 percent in the Afton HU during the 20-year timespan. Our spatial analyses predicted that management alternative effects vary by HU as a function of private property and other wildlife winter ranges proximity relative to feedground location. The predicted number of elk abortions on private land, as a proxy for brucellosis risk to cattle, may increase by 8–21 percent in the absence of feeding at Dell Creek and Forest Park. Eight feedgrounds are located on Bridger-Teton National Forest, all of which have permits that have expired or will expire prior to 2028. In addition, WGFD could change their management of feedgrounds given new information; therefore, we also assessed the cumulative effects of continued feeding, phaseout, and no feeding management alternatives across five HUs south of Jackson, Wyoming (Afton HU, Fall Creek HU, Piney HU, Pinedale HU, and Upper Green River HU). These five HUs ranged from about 41 to 85 percent of the elk herd using feedgrounds, which corresponded to a CWD prevalence at year 20 of 23–34 percent if all feedgrounds in those five HUs remained open relative to 12 to 14 percent if all feedgrounds were closed. We predicted feedground closures may result in immediate reductions in population size relative to alternatives that continue feeding (for example, continued feeding and emergency feeding alternatives); however, over longer periods of time, CWD-associated mortality leads to larger population reductions. The no feeding alternative resulted in higher elk population sizes compared to the continued feeding alternative after about 10 years of implementation. Delayed action under a phaseout alternative resulted in increasing the CWD prevalence to 20 percent relative to 12 to 14 percent, on average, without feeding on HUs with a large population of fed elk such as the Upper Green River HU. Summarizing our cumulative results across all five of the analyzed HUs, we predicted continued feeding will lead to fewer elk by year 20 (mean = 8,300, standard deviation [SD] = 740) compared to no feeding at U.S. Department of Agri-culture Forest Service sites (10,700, SD = 890). The closure of all feedgrounds was projected to result in the largest elk populations at year 20 (12,500, SD = 980). No feeding at all sites also resulted in the largest cumulative harvest of 57,700 (SD = 2,600) compared to 51,100 (SD = 3,800) for continued feeding at all current feedground sites on the five HUs. Continued feeding also resulted in the lowest brucellosis costs to producers ($194,600, SD = $11,500) compared to no feeding on all feedgrounds ($243,000, SD = $13,700). Assuming moderate reductions in hunter interest because of increasing CWD prevalence in elk, we predicted that no feeding resulted in regional revenues generated by hunting activities of $190 million (SD = $10 million) compared to $173 million (SD = $10 million) for continued feeding over the 20-year timeframe. Recent CWD detections in mule deer and elk in Grand Teton National Park has elevated the importance of the cur-rent decision on whether, and how, to permit elk feeding on Dell Creek and Forest Park and the management of the other feedgrounds. Aggressive male harvest has slowed, but not stopped, the increasing prevalence of CWD in mule deer (Conner and others, 2021). It is unclear whether harvest management can be an effective tool to slow the spread of CWD in elk. There are also no effective treatments or vaccines for CWD, and it is unlikely that any will be developed that can be easily deployed in the near future. Thus, reducing artificial aggregations is one of the few management approaches suggested by the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (Almberg and others, 2017). Future surveillance and monitoring can be designed to resolve uncertainties that can improve future decision-making. If feedgrounds close, research could quantify elk population reductions in the absence of feeding, the redistribution of fed elk to other places, or the consequences of elk movement on private property. If feedgrounds remain open, research could assess how rapidly CWD spreads in artificial aggregations of elk; however, surveillance programs would need to be designed with sufficient power to detect initial changes of CWD prevalence. Delaying action on feedground management was projected to be costly. Results of the phaseout alternative relative to the no feeding alternative suggested a 3-year delay was enough for substantial long-term changes in CWD prevalence. The long-term persistence of infectious CWD prions in the environment suggests that feedground management decisions may have long-lasting consequences. Our results indicated tradeoffs in the ability of a management agency to achieve all their objectives, and all management alternatives resulted in significant reductions in elk population size. This report contains the foundational elements for formal decision analysis methods, which can be implemented to help decision makers transparently evaluate the consequences of decision alternatives and identify the set of actions that best achieve agency and stakeholder priorities.

Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Context matters: Intrinsic and extrinsic factors modulate habitat choices in an endangered forest bat

Effective management of declining species depends upon fundamental understanding of habitat preferences during key life stages such as reproduction. Peripheral populations of wildlife are often poorly understood and rarely the focus of study, despite their contribution to genetic diversity and their potential to aid in recolonization if a species becomes endangered. We assessed the maternal roost-site preferences of the endangered northern long-eared bat ( Myotis septentrionalis ) within a managed forest near the western edge of their range in the Black Hills region of Wyoming, USA. We further examined whether habitat preferences and roost-switching varied by reproductive state (pregnant or lactating) or proximate weather conditions. Bats were more likely to roost in quaking aspens during pregnancy, and when weather was cooler and wetter. Conversely, bats roosted more in ponderosa pines ( Pinus ponderosa) post-parturition, and when temperatures were warmer. Bats also were more likely to switch to a new roost after periods of warmer temperature and reduced solar radiation. Our results support growing evidence that habitat choices can be modulated proximately by intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Northern long-eared bats in the Black Hills relied on a variety of roost types, from healthy live trees to snags at different decay stages depending on reproductive stage and ambient weather. Our study highlights the importance of considering diverse contexts when characterizing habitat preferences, particularly for endangered species in a rapidly changing world.

Wyoming↗