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Integrating climate change, biological invasions, and infectious wildlife diseases

Climate change is likely to affect infectious diseases that are facilitated by biological invasions, with repercussions for wildlife conservation and zoonotic risks. Current invasion management and policy are underprepared for the future risks associated with such invasion-related wildlife diseases. By considering evidence from bioclimatology, invasion biology, and disease research, we illustrate how climate change is anticipated to affect disease agents (parasites and pathogens), hosts, and vectors across the different stages of invasions. We highlight the opportunity to integrate these disciplines to identify the effects of climate change on invasion related wildlife diseases. In addition, shifting to a proactive stance in implementing management and policy, such as by incorporating climate-change effects either into preventative and mitigation measures for biosecurity or with rapid response protocols to limit disease spread and impacts, could help to combat future ecological, economic, and human health risks stemming from invasion-related wildlife diseases.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

A review of grass carp and related species literature on diet, behavior, toxicology, and physiology focused on informing development of controls for invasive grass carp populations in North America

Grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) are globally important in aquaculture and aquatic vegetation control. However, escaped grass carp have established invasive populations. A targeted keyword search was performed on a carp (order: Cypriniformes) literature database maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey to identify literature relevant to grass carp. Additional sources cited in reviewed documents and provided by numerous reviewers were also included. There were three focus areas designed to provide support for invasive grass carp management: (1) diet and behavior; (2) physiological constraints, toxicity, and biology; and (3) gut physiology. Each focus area provides information to guide development of potential pathways for invasive grass carp control. Information from other carp species was used to fill in gaps where grass carp information was lacking and provide additional, potential research directions. Diet-related information included food selection and aquacultural diet formulations. Behavioral information included stimuli and non-physical barriers to attract, repel, or stop movement. Physiological constraints, toxicology, reproductive control, and biological control provide a research review for control options. Gut physiology and related control pathways provide knowledge to improve toxin or pathogen delivery. This review provides a basis for developing approaches and research for controlling invasive grass carp populations, aquaculture, and native population management.

Fishes

Introduction: Exotic annual Bromus in the western USA

The spread and impacts of exotic species are unambiguous, global threats to many ecosystems. A prominent example is the suite of annual grasses in the Bromus genus ( Bromus hereafter) that originate from Europe and Eurasia but have invaded or are invading large areas of the Western USA. This book brings a diverse, multidisciplinary group of authors together to synthesize current knowledge, research needs, and management implications for Bromus . Exotic plant invasions are multifaceted problems, and understanding and managing them requires the biological, ecological, sociological, and economic perspectives that are integrated in this book. Knowing how well information from one geographic or environmental setting can transfer to another is a key need for broadly distributed Bromus species especially given ongoing climate change. Thus, the chapters in the book compare and contrast invasibility of different ecoregions and invasiveness of different Bromus species. A universal theme is managing for ecosystems that are resilient to disturbance and resistant to invasion which will be essential for adaptation to the human-caused problem of Bromus in the Western USA.

Book chapter

U.S. Geological Survey science strategy to address chronic wasting disease and cervid health in 2024–2028

Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a neurological disease similar to scrapie in goats and sheep, has been spreading since the 1960s throughout cervid populations in the United States. It is currently detected in 30 States and now also extends to Canada, Korea, and Scandinavia. CWD is a fatal disease caused by an infectious abnormally folded prion protein. Population-level effects of CWD on localized subpopulations of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ), mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), and elk ( Cervus elaphus ) have been documented. While susceptible to CWD, free-ranging moose ( Alces alces ) and reindeer ( Rangifer tarandus ) populations do not currently appear to be as severely affected. The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Chronic Wasting Disease and Cervid Health Science Team is to deliver integrated science to build resiliency into free-ranging cervid populations through more effective management of CWD, build capacity for ungulate health science, and enhance cervid health information sharing across USGS science centers and cooperative research units as well as with stakeholders. The USGS can play an important role in supporting regional and (or) national capacity building by providing resources and guidance to local, State, and Tribal management entities and by providing tools to enhance disease management. The USGS Ecosystems Mission Area’s Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program (BTRP) is the lead Federal program for free-ranging wildlife disease research and surveillance. The BTRP is relied upon by Congress, as well as local, State, and Tribal partners, to provide quality science that allows for informed decisions to be made about wildlife disease policy, planning, and management. The information provided by our research gives policy makers and the public the understanding needed to improve management preparedness and response. This document describes the U.S. Geological Survey Science Strategy To Address Chronic Wasting Disease and Cervid Health. It lays out a 5-year science strategy (2024–2028) for continued USGS research to study CWD in free-ranging cervids and their environments. The strategy includes improving detection methods, advancing our understanding of the mechanisms of transmission, incorporating the human dimensions and socio-economic effects of CWD in scientific studies, developing tools for decision making, and understanding potential effects of this disease on ecosystem health.

Circular

Flooding-induced failure of an invasive Burmese Python nest in southern Florida

It is important to understand the factors affecting the reproductive success of an invasive species to estimate population size and develop management plans. There remains much we do not understand about the reproductive biology of invasive Burmese Pythons in both their native and invasive range. Oviposition site selection is an important factor in determining reproductive success as nesting is a vulnerable period in the life of reptiles. Flooding can be particularly influential for nesting outcomes and success of developing embryos in habitats that experience periods of heavy rainfall or seasonal flooding. It is not clear how seasonal flooding may impact oviposition site selection by females or hatchling survival of Burmese Pythons in Florida. On 10 May 2023, a radio-transmitted female python oviposited in a hollow log and during incubation all eggs were completely submerged for variable amounts of time. All eggs were collected (n = 78) and dissected to confirm fertilization and assess the stage of embryo development. Two eggs were found to be infertile, while the remaining fertile eggs contained embryos that died at various stages of development. The observed failure of this python nest was a direct result of oviposition site selection by the female. The frequency at which females lay eggs in suboptimal locations in southern Florida is currently unknown. This maladaptive behavior would suggest Burmese Pythons have fitness levels below theoretical optima.

Florida

Climate change amplifies ongoing declines in sagebrush ecological integrity

Understanding how climate change will contribute to ongoing declines in sagebrush ecological integrity is critical for informing natural resource management, yet complicated by interactions with wildfire and biological invasions. Here, we assessed potential future changes in sagebrush ecological integrity under a range of scenarios using an individual plant-based simulation model, integrated with remotely sensed estimates of current sagebrush ecological integrity. The simulation model allowed us to estimate how climate change, wildfire, and invasive annuals interact to alter the potential abundance of key plant functional types that influence sagebrush ecological integrity: sagebrush, perennial grasses, and annual grasses. Our results suggest that climate driven reductions in sagebrush ecological integrity may occur over broader areas than increases in sagebrush ecological integrity. Declines in sagebrush ecological integrity were most likely in hot and dry regions while increases were more likely in cool and wet regions. Increases in wildfire probability, largely driven by increasing invasive annual grass abundance, resulted in projected declines in sagebrush abundance and sagebrush ecological integrity in some regions, particularly the Great Basin. The most common projected transitions in sagebrush habitat classification were declines from Core Sagebrush Area to Growth Opportunity Area and from Growth Opportunity Area to Other Rangeland Area. Responses varied considerably across projections from different global climate models, highlighting the importance of climate uncertainty. However, our projections tended to be robust in areas that currently have the highest sagebrush ecological integrity. Our results provide a long-term perspective on the vulnerability of sagebrush ecosystems to climate change and may inform geographic prioritization of conservation and restoration investments. These results suggest that ongoing threats, such as the continued invasion by annual grasses and increased wildfire frequency, are likely to be amplified by climate change, and imply that the current imbalance between capacity for conservation to address threats to sagebrush will grow as the climate warms.

Rangeland Ecology and Management

U.S. Geological Survey science strategy to address white-nose syndrome and bat health in 2025–2029

Since its discovery in 2006, the fungal disease known as white-nose syndrome (WNS) has killed millions of bats. Of the 47 bat species native to the conterminous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Canada, 12 have been affected by WNS, including 3 endangered species and 1 proposed endangered species. WNS has also been detected in 40 States and 9 Canadian Provinces. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists have been critical in identifying the causal fungus for WNS ( Pseudogymnoascus destructans [Pd]), characterizing the effects of WNS, and tracking the spread of Pd in many bat populations in North America. The mission of the USGS WNS and Bat Health Science Team is to deliver integrated science in order to build resiliency into free-ranging bat populations through more effective WNS management, build capacity for bat health science, and enhance bat health information sharing across USGS science centers and cooperative research units as well as with stakeholders. The USGS can play an important role in supporting regional and national capacity building by providing resources and guidance to local, State, and Tribal management entities and by providing tools to enhance disease management. The USGS Ecosystems Mission Area’s Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program is the lead Federal program for free-ranging wildlife disease research and surveillance. As of 2024, guided by the science priorities set by the WNS Steering Committee, USGS scientists are engaged in a nationwide response to WNS. This work is done in close coordination with our partners at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Forest Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Defense, as well as State and Tribal agencies. In addition to conducting WNS research, the USGS is mapping the spread of WNS and coordinating the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) to understand how WNS and other stressors affect the status and trends of native bats across their range. The USGS is supporting the national WNS response through four science goals: (1) provide situational awareness on the health of bat populations; (2) conduct ecological studies of bats along the gradient of disease vulnerability; (3) contribute actionable science to enhance the resiliency of bat populations; and (4) implement an adaptive, holistic approach to bat health.

Circular

Resist, accept, and direct responses to biological invasions: A social–ecological perspective

Biological invasions represent an important and unique case of ecological transformation that can strongly influence species and entire ecosystems. Challenges in managing invasions arise on multiple fronts, ranging from diverse and often divergent values associated with native and introduced species, logistical constraints, and transformation via other change agents (e.g., climate and land-use change). We address biological invasions considering the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework for addressing ecological transformation. Because RAD is focused on decisions, we address both social and ecological factors that influence preferences for decision alternatives. We address social factors first as these can constrain the range of alternatives considered in an ecological context. Next, we address ecological dynamics by modeling trajectories from RAD alternatives in a two-species scenario involving impacts of introduced brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) on native bull trout ( S. confluentus ). Results reveal that decision alternatives aligned with each of the major components of RAD can produce positive outcomes. In a management context, these findings highlight the value of investing in early engagement to fully identify decision alternatives, formalizing models of system dynamics to understand ecological trajectories, and applying this knowledge to set the stage for longer term efforts to address biological invasions.

Fisheries Management and Ecology

Invasive African clawed frogs ( Xenopus laevis ) in Washington State: Status, response efforts, and lessons learned

The African clawed frog (ACF, Xenopus laevis ), which is indigenous to sub-Saharan Africa, is an aquatic invasive species known to have severe ecological impacts on native fauna when introduced into non-endemic regions. In 2015, ACFs were detected in Washington State, U.S. for the first time, and the species is now documented at three cities across western Washington: Lacey, Bothell, and Issaquah. We cataloged the known ACF occurrences, early management efforts, biological data about the frogs, and status of these invasive populations at the three sites from 2015–2023. The ACFs appear to be established in at least three watersheds in the Puget Sound region despite substantial effort at eradicating them at one site. Presence of ACFs in watersheds that lack surface connectivity implies independent introduction events, and the capture of frogs in multiple subbasins in the same watershed may reflect the potential for further spread. Because the ACF is nocturnal and otherwise behaviorally and visually highly cryptic, other established populations may go undetected. Where the ACFs are largely confined to stormwater ponds — as many of our current observations suggest — eradication may still be possible, though a substantial, focused effort would be required. In addition, significant refinement of eradication approaches will be needed to ensure effectiveness in topographically and vegetatively complex Pacific Northwest aquatic environments.

Washington

Toward a comprehensive information system to assist invasive species management in Hawaii and Pacific Islands

The need for coordinated regional and global electronic databases to assist prevention, early detection, rapid response, and control of biological invasions is well accepted. The Pacific Basin Information Node (PBIN), a node of the National Biological Information Infrastructure, has been increasingly engaged in the invasive species enterprise since its establishment in 2001. Since this time, PBIN has sought to support frontline efforts at combating invasions, through working with stakeholders in conservation, agriculture, forestry, health, and commerce to support joint information needs. Although initial emphasis has been on Hawaii, cooperative work with other Pacific islands and countries of the Pacific Rim is already underway and planned.

Weed Science

Fort Collins Science Center fiscal year 2010 science accomplishments

The scientists and technical professionals at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Fort Collins Science Center (FORT), apply their diverse ecological, socioeconomic, and technological expertise to investigate complicated ecological problems confronting managers of the Nation's biological resources. FORT works closely with U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) agency scientists, the academic community, other USGS science centers, and many other partners to provide critical information needed to help answer complex natural-resource management questions. In Fiscal Year 2010 (FY10), FORT's scientific and technical professionals conducted ongoing, expanded, and new research vital to the science needs and management goals of DOI, other Federal and State agencies, and nongovernmental organizations in the areas of aquatic systems and fisheries, climate change, data and information integration and management, invasive species, science support, security and technology, status and trends of biological resources (including the socioeconomic aspects), terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, and wildlife resources, including threatened and endangered species. This report presents selected FORT science accomplishments for FY10 by the specific USGS mission area or science program with which each task is most closely associated, though there is considerable overlap. The report also includes all FORT publications and other products published in FY10, as well as staff accomplishments, appointments, committee assignments, and invited presentations.

Open-File Report

Influences of the invasive tamarisk leaf beetle (Diorhabda carinulata) on avian diets along the Dolores River in Southwestern Colorado USA

The tamarisk leaf beetle ( Diorhabda carinulata ), introduced from Eurasia in 2001 as a biological control agent for the invasive plant Tamarix ramosissima , has spread widely throughout the western USA. With D. carinulata now very abundant, scientists and restoration managers have questioned what influence this introduced arthropod might have upon the avian component of riparian ecosystems. From 2009 through 2012 we studied the consequences of biological invasions of the introduced tamarisk shrub and tamarisk leaf beetles on the diets of native birds along the Dolores River in southwestern Colorado, USA. We examined avian foraging behavior, sampled the arthropod community, documented bird diets and the use of invasive tamarisk shrubs and tamarisk leaf beetles by birds. We documented D. carinulata abundance, on what plants the beetles occurred, and to what degree they were consumed by birds as compared to other arthropods. We hypothesized that if D. carinulata is an important new avian food source, birds should consume beetles at least in proportion to their abundance. We also hypothesized that birds should forage more in tamarisk in the late summer when tamarisk leaf beetle larvae are more abundant than in early summer, and that birds should select beetle-damaged tamarisk shrubs. We found that D. carinulata composed 24.0 percent (± 19.9–27.4%) and 35.4% biomass of all collected arthropods. From the gut contents of 188 birds (25 passerine species), only four species ( n = 11 birds) contained tamarisk leaf beetle parts. Although D. carinulata comprised one-quarter of total insect abundance, frequency of occurrence in bird gut contents was only 2.1% by abundance and 3.4% biomass. Birds used tamarisk shrubs for foraging in proportion to their availability, but foraging frequency did not increase during the late summer when more tamarisk leaf beetles were present and birds avoided beetle-damaged tamarisk shrubs. Despite D. carinulata being the most abundant arthropod in the environment, these invasive beetles were not frequently consumed by birds and seem not to provide a significant contribution to avian diets.

Colorado

Artificial intelligence applied to big data reveals that lake invasions are predicted by human traffic and co-occurring invasions

Preventing the spread of aquatic invasive species is an important management action. Identifying the characteristics of lakes that are susceptible to invasion creates an opportunity for management groups to prioritize limited resources for high-risk areas. In this study, we leveraged big data from a popular fishing app and other publicly available sources of environmental and human-use exposure measurements to develop machine learning models to predict aquatic invasive species presence in 30,375 lakes in the upper Mississippi river basin of the United States. Our results predicted that an additional 665, 771, 544, 703, and 638 lakes in the basin are invaded or at high risk of invasion by Eurasian watermilfoil, curly-leaf pondweed, rusty crayfish, Chinese mystery snail, and dreissenid mussels, respectively. Lake invasions were predicted by a combination of environmental, human-use exposure, and community dynamics variables. Features that made a lake more attractive to recreationists were consistently important across our models including the presence of a boat ramp, larger lake size, and surrounding natural landscape. The importance of co-occurring invasive species in some models could reflect several scenarios including invasional meltdown, facilitation among species, similar pathways for introduction, or similar response to the environment. Our models predicted a higher proportion of invasions in less popular lakes compared to known invasions. The finding underscores the potential importance of less popular lakes in the invasion process and suggests that the detection of invasions may be lower in these lakes. These results serve as a valuable tool for data-driven management decisions and can provide actionable insights for effective aquatic invasive species management.

Biological Invasions

Could climate change benefit invasive snakes? Modelling the potential distribution of the California Kingsnake in the Canary Islands

The interaction between climate change and biological invasions is a global conservation challenge with major consequences for invasive species management. However, our understanding of this interaction has substantial knowledge gaps; this is particularly relevant for invasive snakes on islands because they can be a serious threat to island ecosystems. Here we evaluated the potential influence of climate change on the distribution of invasive snakes on islands, using the invasion of the California kingsnake ( Lampropeltis californiae ) in Gran Canaria. We analysed the potential distribution of L. californiae under current and future climatic conditions in the Canary Islands, with the underlying hypothesis that the archipelago might be suitable for the species under these climate scenarios. Our results indicate that the Canary Islands are currently highly suitable for the invasive snake, with increased suitability under the climate change scenarios tested here. This study supports the idea that invasive reptiles represent a substantial threat to near-tropical regions, and builds on previous studies suggesting that the menace of invasive reptiles may persist or even be exacerbated by climate change. We suggest future research should continue to fill the knowledge gap regarding invasive reptiles, in particular snakes, to clarify their potential future impacts on global biodiversity.

Journal of Environmental Management

Invasive species control and management: The sea lamprey story

Control of invasive species is a critical component of conservation biology given the catastrophic damage that they can cause to the ecosystems they invade. This is particularly evident with sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Native to the Atlantic Ocean, the sea lamprey's ability to osmoregulate in fresh water, its wide thermal tolerance, generalist diet, and high fecundity allowed it to rapidly reach pest proportions in the prey-rich Great Lakes once it gained access through shipping canals. The invasion exacerbated declines in Great Lakes fisheries caused by overharvest, culminating in the crash of lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) and other fish populations. In the last 60 years, however, a highly successful sea lamprey control program has reduced sea lamprey to ∼10% of their peak abundance and has been instrumental in enabling the rehabilitation of the Great Lakes ecosystem. In this chapter, we: (1) discuss the likely vectors of the invasion and the physiological attributes of sea lamprey that enabled them to become established in the Great Lakes; (2) review the two cornerstones of the sea lamprey control program—which relies on a combination of pesticides to eradicate multiple generations of larval sea lamprey in their nursey streams, and in-stream barriers to restrict the upstream migration of spawning lamprey—both of which exploit unique physiological vulnerabilities of sea lamprey; (3) describe how sea lamprey control can adversely affect non-target species and how these can be mitigated; (4) show how physiology-based approaches are improving our understanding of the lethal and sublethal effects of sea lamprey on host fishes; and (5) discuss the future of conservation physiology in sea lamprey control. The prime challenge in the next several decades of the Anthropocene will be to further refine the specificity of control tools while maintaining their efficacy, and to adapt to a warming climate and other anthropogenic activities affecting the Great Lakes and their tributaries.

Lake Erie, Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, Lake Ontario

Burmese pythons in Florida: A synthesis of biology, impacts, and management tools

Burmese pythons ( Python molurus bivittatus ) are native to southeastern Asia, however, there is an established invasive population inhabiting much of southern Florida throughout the Greater Everglades Ecosystem. Pythons have severely impacted native species and ecosystems in Florida and represent one of the most intractable invasive-species management issues across the globe. The difficulty stems from a unique combination of inaccessible habitat and the cryptic and resilient nature of pythons that thrive in the subtropical environment of southern Florida, rendering them extremely challenging to detect. Here we provide a comprehensive review and synthesis of the science relevant to managing invasive Burmese pythons. We describe existing control tools and review challenges to productive research, identifying key knowledge gaps that would improve future research and decision making for python control.

Florida

Regime change in a large-floodplain river ecosystem: Patterns in body-size and functional biomass indicate a shift in fish communities

Changes in species dominance may drive regime shifts because dominant biotic feedbacks reflect functional traits of a community. Changes in species dominance has been documented by a 25-year fish community dataset encompassing six reaches of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. Specifically, common carp ( Cyprinus carpio ) abundance has declined across all reaches, whereas silver carp ( Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ) and bighead carp ( Hypophthalmichthys nobilis ) have increased in abundance in the southern three reaches. To test whether signals in the data were consistent with regime transitions, changes in body-size patterns and trends in functional biomass and variance of functional biomass of the fish community were assessed. I further explored biomass thresholds relative to transitions. Shifts in body-size aggregations and trends in functional biomass support hypotheses that transitions from common carp dominance to a more functional diverse community represent alternate regimes. Results indicate such transitions occurred in the early 2000s for the two most northern reaches, and that the third most northern reach is nearing this transition. In the southern reaches, results indicate that transitions from common carp dominance to silver and bighead carp dominance also represent alternate regimes. Regime transitions support biomass thresholds between 8000 and 10,000 g per unit of day electrofishing effort of common carp and between 20 and 2000 g per unit effort in silver and bighead carp. Consistencies across reaches with similar dominance patterns provide support that reinforcing feedbacks, unique to the functional attributes of the dominant species, occur at similar biomass levels. Building knowledge of such feedback mechanisms is imperative to effectively manage for desired regimes.

Upper Mississippi River

A brief introduction to integrated pest management for aquatic systems

Aquatic invasive plants and animals are increasingly becoming a problem, causing severe economic and ecological damage to critical freshwater systems. The best strategy for controlling an invasive pest employs an integrated pest management (IPM) approach using a combination of biological, physical, chemical, and social/cultural control methods. Here, we examine the history and development of IPM and provide a discussion of the components of an IPM program involving development, evaluation, and management. Control approaches will be reviewed and the application of this technique to aquatic systems will be discussed. A discussion of the Great Lakes Fishery Commission's (GLFC) Integrated Management of Sea Lamprey Petromyzon marinus Control Program will be provided to illustrate the application of IPM to an aquatic system.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management