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Environmental change makes robust ecological networks fragile

Complex ecological networks appear robust to primary extinctions, possibly due to consumers’ tendency to specialize on dependable (available and persistent) resources. However, modifications to the conditions under which the network has evolved might alter resource dependability. Here, we ask whether adaptation to historical conditions can increase community robustness, and whether such robustness can protect communities from collapse when conditions change. Using artificial life simulations, we first evolved digital consumer-resource networks that we subsequently subjected to rapid environmental change. We then investigated how empirical host–parasite networks would respond to historical, random and expected extinction sequences. In both the cases, networks were far more robust to historical conditions than new ones, suggesting that new environmental challenges, as expected under global change, might collapse otherwise robust natural ecosystems.

Nature Communications

Nitrogen attenuation of terrestrial carbon cycle response to global environmental factors

Nitrogen cycle dynamics have the capacity to attenuate the magnitude of global terrestrial carbon sinks and sources driven by CO 2 fertilization and changes in climate. In this study, two versions of the terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycle components of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) are used to evaluate how variation in nitrogen availability influences terrestrial carbon sinks and sources in response to changes over the 20th century in global environmental factors including atmospheric CO 2 concentration, nitrogen inputs, temperature, precipitation and land use. The two versions of ISAM vary in their treatment of nitrogen availability: ISAM-NC has a terrestrial carbon cycle model coupled to a fully dynamic nitrogen cycle while ISAM-C has an identical carbon cycle model but nitrogen availability is always in sufficient supply. Overall, the two versions of the model estimate approximately the same amount of global mean carbon uptake over the 20th century. However, comparisons of results of ISAM-NC relative to ISAM-C reveal that nitrogen dynamics: (1) reduced the 1990s carbon sink associated with increasing atmospheric CO 2 by 0.53 PgC yr −1 (1 Pg = 1015g), (2) reduced the 1990s carbon source associated with changes in temperature and precipitation of 0.34 PgC yr −1 in the 1990s, (3) an enhanced sink associated with nitrogen inputs by 0.26 PgC yr −1 , and (4) enhanced the 1990s carbon source associated with changes in land use by 0.08 PgC yr −1 in the 1990s. These effects of nitrogen limitation influenced the spatial distribution of the estimated exchange of CO 2 with greater sink activity in high latitudes associated with climate effects and a smaller sink of CO 2 in the southeastern United States caused by N limitation associated with both CO 2 fertilization and forest regrowth. These results indicate that the dynamics of nitrogen availability are important to consider in assessing the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

It’s about time: A synthesis of changing phenology in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem

The timing of recurring biological and seasonal environmental events is changing on a global scale relative to temperature and other climate drivers. This study considers the Gulf of Maine ecosystem, a region of high social and ecological importance in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and synthesizes current knowledge of 1) key seasonal processes, patterns, and events; 2) direct evidence for shifts in timing; 3) implications of phenological responses for linked ecological-human systems; and 4) potential phenology-focused adaptation strategies and actions. Twenty studies demonstrated shifts in timing of regional marine organisms and seasonal environmental events. The most common response was earlier timing, observed in spring onset, spring and winter hydrology, zooplankton abundance, and diadromous fish migrations. Later timing was documented for fall onset, reproduction and fledging in Atlantic puffins, spring and fall phytoplankton blooms, and occurrence of some larval fishes. Changes in event duration generally increased and were detected in zooplankton peak abundance, early life history periods of macro-invertebrates, and lobster fishery landings. Reduced duration was observed in winter-spring ice-affected stream flows. Two studies projected phenological changes, both finding diapause duration would decrease in zooplankton under future climate scenarios. Phenological responses were species-specific and varied depending on the environmental driver, spatial, and temporal scales evaluated. Overall, a wide range of baseline phenology and relevant modeling studies exist, yet surprisingly few document long-term shifts. Results reveal a need for increased emphasis on phenological shifts in the Gulf of Maine, identify opportunities for future research and consideration of phenological changes in adaptation efforts.

Maine

Environmental issues of petroleum exploration and production: Introduction

Energy is the lifeblood of our planet Earth, an essential commod- ity that powers the expanding global economy. Starting in the 1950s, oil and natural gas became the main sources of primary energy for the increasing world population, and this dominance is expected to continue for several more decades (Edwards, 1997; Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2004). In the United States, petroleum production started in 1859 when Drake's well was drilled near Titusville, Pennsylvania, and oil and natural gas currently supply approximately 63% of the energy consumption; forecasts indicate that by 2025, their use will increase by about 40% to 28.3 million bbl/day and to 31.4 tcf/yr (EIA, 2004). The clear benefits of petroleum consumption, however, can carry major environmental impacts that may be regional or global in scale, in- cluding air pollution, global climate change, and oil spills. This vol- ume of Environmental Geosciences, covering environmental impacts of petroleum exploration and production, does not address these major impacts directly because air pollution and global warming are issues related primarily to petroleum and coal uses, and major oil spills are generally attributed to marine petroleum transportation, such as the Exxon Valdez's 1989 spill of 260,000 bbl of oil into Prince William Sound, Alaska. Exploration for and production of petroleum, however, have caused local detrimental impacts to soils, surface and groundwa- ters, and ecosystems in the 36 producing states in the United States (Richter and Kreitler, 1993; Kharaka and Hanor, 2003). These im- pacts arose primarily from the improper disposal of some of the large volumes (presently estimated at 20 billion bbl/yr total pro- duced) of saline water produced with oil and gas, from accidental hydrocarbon and produced-water releases, and from abandoned oil wells that were orphaned or not correctly plugged (Kharaka et al., 1995; Veil et al., 2004). Impacts and ground-surface disturbances, in the order of several acres per well, can also arise from related activities such as site clearance, construction of roads, tank bat- teries, brine pits and pipelines, and other land modifications nec- essary for the drilling of exploration and production wells and construction of production facilities. The cumulative impacts from these operations are high, because a total of about 3.5 million oil.

Environmental Geosciences

Arctic Alaska deepwater organic carbon burial and environmental changes during the late Albian–early Campanian (103–82 Ma)

The middle Cretaceous greenhouse period experienced profound environmental change including episodes of enhanced global burial of organic carbon marked by carbon isotopic excursions (CIEs). However, the role and response of polar regions like the newly formed, partially enclosed Arctic Ocean Basin during middle Cretaceous carbon burial remains enigmatic. We present the first Arctic deepwater CIE record that characterizes conditions offshore of the Alaska margin north of 75°N paleolatitude. Organic carbon isotopes (δ 13 C org ) and 103–82 Ma ash zircon U-Pb dates from the distal Hue Shale record multiple Albian–Campanian CIEs during slow ∼3–15 m/Myr sediment accumulation rates. Average total organic carbon (TOC) increased substantially during large 2–3 ‰ CIEs of the ∼101 Ma Albian-Cenomanian boundary event (from 7 to 18 % TOC) and ∼94 Ma Cenomanian-Turonian boundary event (5 to 10 % TOC). Turonian TOC remained elevated (8–13 %) during high global sea levels and temperatures of the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum, followed by an increase from 7 to 11 % TOC during the ∼90 Ma late Turonian event 1.5 ‰ CIE. Average TOC subsequently decreased in the Coniacian–Campanian, but relative maxima occurred during subtle 0.5–1 ‰ CIEs interpreted as the ∼87 Ma late Coniacian event (increase from 4 to 7 % TOC), ∼85 Ma Horseshoe Bay event (3.5 to 4.5 % TOC), and ∼84 Ma Santonian-Campanian boundary event (3.5 to 5 % TOC). Increases in hydrogen index and productivity proxies (P, Ba, Nd) that accompanied each CIE episode with enhanced TOC suggest a strong link between marine productivity and organic carbon burial at short-term CIE timescales. However, long-term (>5–8 Myr) changes in trace metal redox (Mo, Fe, V) and salinity (B/Ga) proxies suggest shifts in prevailing environmental conditions at timescales longer than the CIEs. Late Albian–middle Turonian marine salinity occurred during euxinic (103–98 Ma) and suboxic (98–90 Ma) conditions with deposition interpreted to have occurred within and beneath an oxygen minimum zone, respectively. In contrast, late Turonian–early Campanian (90–82 Ma) freshening and restricted euxinic basin conditions may signal the start of widespread restriction known to characterize the Paleogene Arctic. Overall, these results highlight that middle Cretaceous Arctic deepwater remained a productive marine carbon sink coupled to the global carbon cycle despite evolving Arctic greenhouse conditions.

Alaska

The future of fungi: Threats and opportunities

The fungal kingdom represents an extraordinary diversity of organisms with profound impacts across animal, plant, and ecosystem health. Fungi simultaneously support life, by forming beneficial symbioses with plants and producing life-saving medicines, and bring death, by causing devastating diseases in humans, plants, and animals. With climate change, increased antimicrobial resistance, global trade, environmental degradation, and novel viruses altering the impact of fungi on health and disease, developing new approaches is now more crucial than ever to combat the threats posed by fungi and to harness their extraordinary potential for applications in human health, food supply, and environmental remediation. To address this aim, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR) and the Burroughs Wellcome Fund convened a workshop to unite leading experts on fungal biology from academia and industry to strategize innovative solutions to global challenges and fungal threats. This report provides recommendations to accelerate fungal research and highlights the major research advances and ideas discussed at the meeting pertaining to 5 major topics: (1) Connections between fungi and climate change and ways to avert climate catastrophe; (2) Fungal threats to humans and ways to mitigate them; (3) Fungal threats to agriculture and food security and approaches to ensure a robust global food supply; (4) Fungal threats to animals and approaches to avoid species collapse and extinction; and (5) Opportunities presented by the fungal kingdom, including novel medicines and enzymes.

G3 Genes, Genomes, Genetics

Observed and projected functional reorganization of riverine fish assemblages from global change

Climate and land-use/land-cover change (‘global change’) are restructuring biodiversity, globally. Broadly, environmental conditions are expected to become warmer, potentially drier (particularly in arid regions), and more anthropogenically developed in the future, with spatiotemporally complex effects on ecological communities. We used functional traits to inform Chesapeake Bay Watershed fish responses to future climate and land-use scenarios (2030, 2060, and 2090). We modelled the future habitat suitability of focal species representative of key trait axes (substrate, flow, temperature, reproduction, and trophic) and used functional and phylogenetic metrics to assess variable assemblage responses across physiographic regions and habitat sizes (headwaters through large rivers). Our focal species analysis projected future habitat suitability gains for carnivorous species with preferences for warm water, pool habitats, and fine or vegetated substrates. At the assemblage level, models projected decreasing habitat suitability for cold-water, rheophilic, and lithophilic individuals but increasing suitability for carnivores in the future across all regions. Projected responses of functional and phylogenetic diversity and redundancy differed among regions. Lowland regions were projected to become less functionally and phylogenetically diverse and more redundant while upland regions (and smaller habitat sizes) were projected to become more diverse and less redundant. Next, we assessed how this model projected assemblage changes 2005-2030 related to observed time-series trends (1999–2016). Halfway through the initial projecting period (2005–2030), we found observed trends broadly followed modelled patterns of increasing proportions of carnivorous and lithophilic individuals in lowland regions but showed opposing patterns for functional and phylogenetic metrics. Leveraging observed and predicted analyses simultaneously helps elucidate the instances and causes of discrepancies between model predictions and ongoing observed changes. Collectively, results highlight the complexity of global change impacts across broad landscapes that likely relate to differences in assemblages’ intrinsic sensitivities and external exposure to stressors.

Global Change Biology

The influence of soil age on ecosystem structure and function across biomes

The importance of soil age as an ecosystem driver across biomes remains largely unresolved. By combining a cross-biome global field survey, including data for 32 soil, plant, and microbial properties in 16 soil chronosequences, with a global meta-analysis, we show that soil age is a significant ecosystem driver, but only accounts for a relatively small proportion of the cross-biome variation in multiple ecosystem properties. Parent material, climate, vegetation and topography predict, collectively, 24 times more variation in ecosystem properties than soil age alone. Soil age is an important local-scale ecosystem driver; however, environmental context, rather than soil age, determines the rates and trajectories of ecosystem development in structure and function across biomes. Our work provides insights into the natural history of terrestrial ecosystems. We propose that, regardless of soil age, changes in the environmental context, such as those associated with global climatic and land-use changes, will have important long-term impacts on the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems across biomes.

Nature Communications

Byproduct mineral commodities used for the production of photovoltaic cells

Rising fossil fuel costs, environmental concerns relating to global climate change, and Government policy to signifcantly increase our Nation's energy independence have placed greater emphasis on the generation of electricity from renewable sources, such as the Sun (light and heat), water, and wind, which for all intents and purposes are inexhaustible resources. Although the total amount of electricity generated from the direct conversion of sunlight through photovoltaic cells is relatively small compared with that from other forms of renewable energy, the rate of growth in the sector is signifcant. The total value of energy of photovoltaic cells produced worldwide increased to nearly 7 gigawatts (GW) in 2008 from 45 megawatts (MW) in 1990, a compound annual growth rate of about 30 percent. In the United States, manufacturing of photovoltaic cells has grown exponentially to about 480 MW in 2008, accounting for 6 percent of world production, from less than 10 MW of photovoltaic capacity in 1990 (Benner, 2007; U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, 2010), a compound annual growth rate of approxi-mately 23 percent. A production capacity of 1 GW of electricity [or 8,760 gigawatthours1 (GWh)] is equivalent to the annual electricity requirements for roughly 800,000 average households in the United States (U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, 2010). This estimate does not include losses of electricity, such as during transmission through power lines.

Circular

Remotely Sensed Data Collections: Offerings from EROS

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) maintains a wide variety of remotely sensed data collections that contain a wealth of information about the Earth’s land surfaces. Acquired by special sensors carried aboard civilian satellites and aircraft, the images and other data in these collections provide a unique perspective of the terrestrial environment. They represent invaluable resources for scientists, resource managers, policy makers, and educators to use in studying such things as natural hazards, conservation issues, land use and economic development, and environmental change at local, regional, and global levels. Different types of sensors record different types of information, resulting in diverse data products, each with its own particular strengths. Highlighted here are eight remotely sensed data collections that are currently available from EROS.

Fact Sheet

Great Basin Integrated Landscape Monitoring Pilot Summary Report

The Great Basin Integrated Landscape Monitoring Pilot project (GBILM) was one of four regional pilots to implement the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science Thrust on Integrated Landscape Monitoring (ILM) whose goal was to observe, understand, and predict landscape change and its implications on natural resources at multiple spatial and temporal scales and address priority natural resource management and policy issues. The Great Basin is undergoing rapid environmental change stemming from interactions among global climate trends, increasing human populations, expanding and accelerating land and water uses, invasive species, and altered fire regimes. GBLIM tested concepts and developed tools to store and analyze monitoring data, understand change at multiple scales, and forecast landscape change. The GBILM endeavored to develop and test a landscape-level monitoring approach in the Great Basin that integrates USGS disciplines, addresses priority management questions, catalogs and uses existing monitoring data, evaluates change at multiple scales, and contributes to development of regional monitoring strategies. GBILM functioned as an integrative team from 2005 to 2010, producing more than 35 science and data management products that addressed pressing ecosystem drivers and resource management agency needs in the region. This report summarizes the approaches and methods of this interdisciplinary effort, identifies and describes the products generated, and provides lessons learned during the project.

Open-File Report

Partitioning global change: Assessing the relative importance of changes in climate and land cover for changes in avian distribution

Understanding the relative impact of climate change and land cover change on changes in avian distribution has implications for the future course of avian distributions and appropriate management strategies. Due to the dynamic nature of climate change, our goal was to investigate the processes that shape species distributions, rather than the current distributional patterns. To this end, we analyzed changes in the distribution of Eastern Wood Pewees (Contopus virens) and Red-eyed Vireos (Vireo olivaceus) from 1997 to 2012 using Breeding Bird Survey data and dynamic correlated-detection occupancy models. We estimated the local colonization and extinction rates of these species in relation to changes in climate (hours of extreme temperature) and changes in land cover (amount of nesting habitat). We fit six nested models to partition the deviance explained by spatial and temporal components of land cover and climate. We isolated the temporal components of environmental variables because this is the essence of global change. For both species, model fit was significantly improved when we modeled vital rates as a function of spatial variation in climate and land cover. Model fit only improved insignificantly when we added temporal variation in climate and land cover to the model. Temporal variation in climate explained more deviance than temporal variation in land cover, although both combined only explained 20% (Eastern Wood Pewee) and 6% (Red-eyed Vireo) of temporal variation in vital rates. Our results showing a significant correlation between initial occupancy and environmental covariates are consistent with biological expectation and previous studies. Our results estimating a weak correlation between vital rates and temporal changes in covariates indicate that we have yet to identify the most relevant components of global change changing the distributions of these species and, more significantly, that spatially significant covariates are not necessarily driving temporal shifts in avian distributions.

Ecology and Evolution

Chlorophyll trends are negative for lakes but positive for estuarine–coastal waters

Nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) pollution is an environmental problem of global concern because overenrichment of water bodies increases phytoplankton biomass and ecosystem metabolism, depletes oxygen in bottom waters, and increases the frequency and intensity of harmful algal blooms. These responses to nutrient pollution have motivated policies to reduce anthropogenic nutrient inputs. However, these policies have not been universally implemented and their success at reducing phytoplankton biomass is confounded by other components of global change that regulate the conversion of nutrients into biomass. These regulating processes themselves are changing in the Anthropocene. Our study is an assessment of changing phytoplankton biomass over the period 2000–2019, using chlorophyll a trends measured in 191 lakes and 159 estuarine-coastal sites. Our results show that phytoplankton biomass has decreased in most lakes, increased in most coastal sites, and the largest trends have been predominantly negative for lakes and positive for coastal sites. These results provide evidence of opposing directions of phytoplankton biomass change between lakes and coastal sites in this recent period of unprecedented global change. Nutrient pollution is a knotty environmental problem, and our study indicates that it might be a particularly challenging problem for ecosystems situated in densely populated landscapes where freshwater and sea water meet. Success at overcoming this challenge will require deeper scientific understanding of changes in processes that regulate the conversion of nutrients into phytoplankton biomass, substantial investments of time and resources to reduce nutrient inputs, and a flexible strategy designed to anticipate and adapt to a changing world.

PNAS

Global change and submerged aquatic vegetation research

Communities of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAY) are important components of many freshwater, brackish, and marine aquatic ecosystems. They prevent erosion by baffling the impacts of waves, especially from storms. These aquatic plant communities remove nutrients and other pollutants from river and runoff inputs to coastal areas, preventing their entry into surrounding waters. They provide nursery habitat for fish, shrimp, and other species, as well as forage for wintering waterfowl and endangered species such as sea turtles and manatees. Unfortunately, not only have the distribution and abundance of seagrasses in the northern Gulf of Mexico declined precipitously during the past 50 years, most notably from widespread deterioration of water quality, but submerged aquatic plant communities are also susceptible to long-term environmental changes that are predicted to accompany global climate change.

Fact Sheet

Anthropogenic activities have greatly altered mangroves over the last hundred years

Mangroves not only provide ecosystem and cultural services but also contribute to the mitigation of global warming. Mangrove dynamics and their environmental responses as re-constructed from the past can inform current mangrove conservation and restoration. However, our understanding of mangrove dynamics over the past century and the impact of human activities on these ecosystems remains limited. Using the quantified mangrove-derived organic carbon (MOC) contributions of seven sediment cores, we reconstructed the historical mangrove dynamics in Yingluo Bay and the Maowei Sea in tropical China dating back to 1900. The results indicated that the natural undisturbed mangroves in Yingluo Bay flourished in response to rising temperatures. In contrast, the significantly human-disturbed mangroves in Maowei Sea experienced a marked decline. Although both areas share similar natural conditions, intense anthropogenic disturbance reversed the natural potential for mangrove growth in the Maowei Sea. To explore the global prevalence of this phenomenon, we compiled data on mangrove pollen, δ 13 C org , MOC, and mangrove area change from over 40 sites/regions worldwide, and re-constructed the natural and human-affected mangrove dynamics over the past century. Our findings indicated that, owing to the globally rising temperatures, natural undisturbed mangroves have gradually expanded as progressively more healthy forests, while human-disturbed mangroves exhibited three patterns: (1) continuous degradation, (2) flourishing-degradation, and (3) degradation-regeneration. Anthropogenic activities, such as seawall construction, aquaculture activity, agricultural expansion, logging, and urbanization have significantly reversed the natural health of mangroves such that any conservation and restoration strategy used for mangroves globally could inherently consider anthropogenic factors along with natural environmental change for better outcomes.

Global and Planetary Change

Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world

Forest dynamics arise from the interplay of environmental drivers and disturbances with the demographic processes of recruitment, growth, and mortality, subsequently driving biomass and species composition. However, forest disturbances and subsequent recovery are shifting with global changes in climate and land use, altering these dynamics. Changes in environmental drivers, land use, and disturbance regimes are forcing forests toward younger, shorter stands. Rising carbon dioxide, acclimation, adaptation, and migration can influence these impacts. Recent developments in Earth system models support increasingly realistic simulations of vegetation dynamics. In parallel, emerging remote sensing datasets promise qualitatively new and more abundant data on the underlying processes and consequences for vegetation structure. When combined, these advances hold promise for improving the scientific understanding of changes in vegetation demographics and disturbances.

Science

Late Pleistocene-Holocene age and stratigraphy of the Currituck Slide Complex, U.S. mid-Atlantic continental slope: Implications for landslide triggering

Considerable effort has been made to link submarine slope failures to changes in local and global-scale environmental conditions, in order to assess landslide hazard probability. Here we provide the first radiocarbon dates of hemipelagic sediment overlying mass transport deposits and inferred failure surfaces of the Currituck Slide Complex (CSC), a prominent landslide scar on the U.S. mid-Atlantic continental slope. The dates, taken from both the upper and lower scars of the complex, constrain the age of the last major failure event to 13,835 and 16,020 years BP. Time correlation of the hemipelagic sediments across the landslide scar and proximal deposit suggests a single failure of both the upper and lower parts of this 160 km 3 volume. A higher rate of sediment supply from the periglacial Appalachian Mountains and from glacial melt-water pulses, with an exposed continental shelf at that time, may have enlarged a shelf-edge delta at the site of the CSC, which may have facilitated or triggered failure. A smaller landslide at the southern edge of the complex with a less well-defined geomorphologic footprint is dated at 5500 BP and possibly represents the reshaping of the seafloor around the CSC triggered by low-frequency earthquakes on the nearby continental margin.

Marine Geology

Flooding alters plant-mediated carbon cycling independently of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations

Plant‐mediated processes determine carbon (C) cycling and storage in many ecosystems; how plant‐associated processes may be altered by climate‐induced changes in environmental drivers is therefore an essential question for understanding global C cycling. In this study, we hypothesize that environmental alterations associated with near‐term climate change can exert strong control on plant‐associated ecosystem C cycling and that investigations along an extended hydrologic gradient may give mechanistic insight into C cycling. We utilize a mesocosm approach to investigate the response of plant, soil, and gaseous C cycling to changing hydrologic regimes and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentrations expected by 2100 in a coastal salt marsh in Louisiana, USA. Although elevated CO 2 had no significant effects on C cycling, we demonstrate that greater average flooding depth stimulated C exchange, with higher rates of labile C decomposition, plant CO 2 assimilation, and soil C respiration. Greater average flooding depth also significantly decreased the soil C pool and marginally increased the aboveground biomass C pool, leading to net losses in total C stocks. Further, flooding depths along an extended hydrologic gradient garnered insight into decomposition mechanisms that was not apparent from other data. In C‐4 dominated salt marshes, sea‐level rise will likely overwhelm effects of elevated CO 2 with climate change. Deeper flooding associated with sea‐level rise may decrease long‐term soil C pools and quicken C exchange between soil and atmosphere, thereby threatening net C storage in salt marsh habitats. Manipulative studies will be indispensable for understanding biogeochemical cycling under future conditions.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences