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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

USGS2019

A parametric numerical analysis of factors controlling ground ruptures caused by groundwater pumping

A modeling analysis is used to investigate the relative susceptibility of various hydrogeologic configurations to aseismic rupture generation due to deformation of aquifer systems accompanying groundwater pumping. An advanced numerical model (GEPS3D) is used to simulate rupture generation and propagation for three typical processes: (i) reactivation of a preexisting fault, (ii) differential compaction due to variations in thickness of aquifer/aquitard layers constituting the aquifer system, and (iii) tensile fracturing above a bedrock ridge that forms the base of the aquifer system. A sensitivity analysis is developed to address the relative importance of various factors, including aquifer depletion, aquifer thickness, the possible uneven distribution and depth below land surface of the aquifer/aquitard layers susceptible to aquifer-system compaction, and the height of bedrock ridges beneath the aquifer system which contributes to thinning of the aquifer system. The rupture evolution is classified in two occurrences. In one, the rupture develops at the top of the aquifer or at land surface and does not propagate. In the other, the developed rupture propagates from the aquifer top toward the land surface and/or from the land surface downward. The aquifer depth is the most important factor controlling rupture evolution. Specifically, the probability of a significant rupture propagation is higher when the aquifer top is near land surface. The numerical results are processed by a statistical regression analysis to provide a general methodology for a preliminary evaluation of possible ruptures development in exploited aquifer systems susceptible to aquifer-system compaction and accompanying land subsidence. A comparison with a few representative case studies in Arizona, USA, China, and Mexico supports the study outcomes.

Arizona↗

USGS2008

An improved state-parameter analysis of ecosystem models using data assimilation

Much of the effort spent in developing data assimilation methods for carbon dynamics analysis has focused on estimating optimal values for either model parameters or state variables. The main weakness of estimating parameter values alone (i.e., without considering state variables) is that all errors from input, output, and model structure are attributed to model parameter uncertainties. On the other hand, the accuracy of estimating state variables may be lowered if the temporal evolution of parameter values is not incorporated. This research develops a smoothed ensemble Kalman filter (SEnKF) by combining ensemble Kalman filter with kernel smoothing technique. SEnKF has following characteristics: (1) to estimate simultaneously the model states and parameters through concatenating unknown parameters and state variables into a joint state vector; (2) to mitigate dramatic, sudden changes of parameter values in parameter sampling and parameter evolution process, and control narrowing of parameter variance which results in filter divergence through adjusting smoothing factor in kernel smoothing algorithm; (3) to assimilate recursively data into the model and thus detect possible time variation of parameters; and (4) to address properly various sources of uncertainties stemming from input, output and parameter uncertainties. The SEnKF is tested by assimilating observed fluxes of carbon dioxide and environmental driving factor data from an AmeriFlux forest station located near Howland, Maine, USA, into a partition eddy flux model. Our analysis demonstrates that model parameters, such as light use efficiency, respiration coefficients, minimum and optimum temperatures for photosynthetic activity, and others, are highly constrained by eddy flux data at daily-to-seasonal time scales. The SEnKF stabilizes parameter values quickly regardless of the initial values of the parameters. Potential ecosystem light use efficiency demonstrates a strong seasonality. Results show that the simultaneous parameter estimation procedure significantly improves model predictions. Results also show that the SEnKF can dramatically reduce the variance in state variables stemming from the uncertainty of parameters and driving variables. The SEnKF is a robust and effective algorithm in evaluating and developing ecosystem models and in improving the understanding and quantification of carbon cycle parameters and processes. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2020

Machine learning predictions of pH in the Glacial Aquifer System, Northern USA

A boosted regression tree model was developed to predict pH conditions in three dimensions throughout the glacial aquifer system of the contiguous United States using pH measurements in samples from 18,386 wells and predictor variables that represent aspects of the hydrogeologic setting. Model results indicate that the carbonate content of soils and aquifer materials strongly controls pH and, when coupled with long flowpaths, results in the most alkaline conditions. Conversely, in areas where glacial sediments are thin and carbonate‐poor, pH conditions remain acidic. At depths typical of drinking‐water supplies, predicted pH >7.5—which is associated with arsenic mobilization—occurs more frequently than predicted pH <6—which is associated with water corrosivity and the mobilization of other trace elements. A novel aspect of this model was the inclusion of numerically based estimates of groundwater flow characteristics (age and flowpath length) as predictor variables. The sensitivity of pH predictions to these variables was consistent with hydrologic understanding of groundwater flow systems and the geochemical evolution of groundwater quality. The model was not developed to provide precise estimates of pH at any given location. Rather, it can be used to more generally identify areas where contaminants may be mobilized into groundwater and where corrosivity issues may be of concern to prioritize areas for future groundwater monitoring.

Groundwater↗

USGS2019

Offset channels may not accurately record strike-slip fault displacement: Evidence from landscape evolution models

Slip distribution, slip rate, and slip per event for strike‐slip faults are commonly determined by correlating offset stream channels—under the assumption that they record seismic slip—but offset channels are formed by the interplay of tectonic and geomorphic processes. To constrain offset channel development under known tectonic and geomorphic conditions, we use numerical landscape evolution simulations along a theoretical strike‐slip fault with uniform and steady uplift, erosion, and diffusion. We investigate the influence of four tectonic parameters (fault zone width, earthquake recurrence interval, variance of the recurrence interval, and total slip relative to channel spacing) on offset channel development through multiple earthquake cycles. Analysis of >3,000 automatically measured offsets from >135 simulations suggests ~30% variability in individual measurements, but modeled displacement is recovered by averaging multiple measurements. However, the average of multiple offset measurements systematically underestimates modeled slip except when the fault zone is less than ~5 m wide, total slip is less than channel spacing, and offsets are measured shortly after an earthquake. In these simulations, postearthquake landscape evolution widens the geomorphic expression of the fault zone and modifies apparent channel offsets. We distinguish this “geomorphic fault zone” from the tectonic fault zone (zone of coseismic distributed deformation). This study highlights the capability of landscape evolution models to explore a range of conditions not easily defined in natural examples and the importance of averaging multiple measurements. Our results verify that paleoseismic studies must consider how geomorphic change has modified offset markers and use caution interpreting slip histories with multiple earthquakes.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS1983

Paleoceanographic implications of Miocene deep-sea hiatuses

Miocene paleoceanographic evolution exhibits major changes resulting from the opening and closing of passages, the subsequent changes in oceanic circulation, and development of major Antarctic glaciation. The consequences and timing of these events can be observed in variations in the distribution of deep-sea hiatuses, sedimentation patterns, and biogeographic distribution of planktic organisms. The opening of the Drake Passage in the latest Oligocene to early Miocene (25–20 Ma) resulted in the establishment of the deep circumpolar current, which led to thermal isolation of Antarctica and increased global cooling. This development was associated with a major turnover in planktic organisms, resulting in the evolution of Neogene assemblages and the eventual extinction of Paleogene assemblages. The erosive patterns of two widespread hiatuses (PH, 23.0–22.5 Ma; and NH 1, 20–18 Ma) indicate that a deep circumequatorial circulation existed at this time, characterized by a broad band of carbonate-ooze deposition. Siliceous sedimentation was restricted to the North Atlantic and a narrow band around Antarctica. A major reorganization in deep-sea sedimentation and hiatus distribution patterns occurred near the early/middle Miocene boundary, apparently resulting from changes in oceanic circulation. Beginning at this time, deep-sea erosion occurred throughout the Caribbean (hiatus NH 2, 16–15 Ma), suggesting disruption of the deep circumequatorial circulation and northward deflection of deep currents, and/or intensification of the Gulf Stream. Sediment distribution patterns changed dramatically with the sudden appearance of siliceous-ooze deposition in the marginal and east equatorial North Pacific by 16.0 to 15.5 Ma, coincident with the decline of siliceous sedimentation in the North Atlantic. This silica switch may have been caused by the introduction of Norwegian Overflow Water into the North Atlantic acting as a barrier to outcropping of silica-rich Antarctic Bottom Water. The main aspects of the present oceanic circulation system and sediment distribution pattern were established by 13.5 to 12.5 Ma (hiatus NH 3), coincident with the establishment of a major East Antarctic ice cap. Antarctic glaciation resulted in a broadening belt of siliceous-ooze deposition around Antarctica, increased siliceous sedimentation in the marginal and east equatorial North Pacific and Indian Oceans, and further northward restriction of siliceous sediments in the North Atlantic. Periodic cool climatic events were accompanied by lower eustatic sea levels and widespread deep-sea erosion at 12 to 11 Ma (NH 4), 10 to 9 Ma (NH 5), 7.5 to 6.2 Ma (NH 6), and 5.2 to 4.7 Ma (NH 7).

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

USGS1980

A survey of image processing developments in support of remote sensing

New algorithm developments for image processing (IP) will occur throughout the 1980's, resulting from evolution in computer hardware and sensors as well as continuing research. This report will describe the areas of algorithm development that are occurring in applications, research, and operational environments. Included is an overview of image processing activities at institutions which are generally regarded as leaders in IP algorithm development and implementation. Finally, this report addresses directions in IP algorithm development that are being proposed for the EROS Data Center (EDC). The major applications of IP at EDC are developed for use in the processing, analysis, and extraction of remote sensing information from Landsat and aircraft data (platforms).

Report↗

USGS2014

Tsunamis: stochastic models of occurrence and generation mechanisms

The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this entry, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic methods. In each case, seismogenic tsunamis are primarily considered. Stochastic models are developed from the physical theories that govern tsunami evolution combined with empirical models fitted to seismic and tsunami observations, as well as tsunami catalogs. These stochastic methods are key to providing probabilistic forecasts and hazard assessments for tsunamis. The stochastic methods described here are similar to those described for earthquakes (Vere-Jones 2013) and volcanoes (Bebbington 2013 ) in this encyclopedia.

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

Tsunamis: Stochastic models of generation, propagation, and occurrence

The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this paper, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic models. In each case, tsunamis generated by earthquakes are primarily considered. Stochastic models are developed from the physical theories that govern tsunami evolution combined with empirical models fitted to seismic and tsunami observations, as well as tsunami catalogs. These stochastic models are key to providing probabilistic forecasts and hazard assessments for tsunamis. The stochastic methods described here are similar to those described for earthquakes (Vere-Jones, 2013) and volcanoes (Bebbington, 2013) in this Encyclopedia.

Book chapter↗

USGS2010

Selection, trans-species polymorphism, and locus identification of major histocompatibility complex class IIβ alleles of New World ranid frogs

Genes encoded by the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) play key roles in the vertebrate immune system. However, our understanding of the evolutionary processes and underlying genetic mechanisms shaping these genes is limited in many taxa, including amphibians, a group currently impacted by emerging infectious diseases. To further elucidate the evolution of the MHC in frogs (anurans) and develop tools for population genetics, we surveyed allelic diversity of the MHC class II ??1 domain in both genomic and complementary DNA of seven New World species in the genus Rana (Lithobates). To assign locus affiliation to our alleles, we used a "gene walking" technique to obtain intron 2 sequences that flanked MHC class II?? exon 2. Two distinct intron sequences were recovered, suggesting the presence of at least two class II?? loci in Rana. We designed a primer pair that successfully amplified an orthologous locus from all seven Rana species. In total, we recovered 13 alleles and documented trans-species polymorphism for four of the alleles. We also found quantitative evidence of selection acting on amino acid residues that are putatively involved in peptide binding and structural stability of the ??1 domain of anurans. Our results indicated that primer mismatch can result in polymerase chain reaction (PCR) bias, which influences the number of alleles that are recovered. Using a single locus may minimize PCR bias caused by primer mismatch, and the gene walking technique was an effective approach for generating single-copy orthologous markers necessary for future studies of MHC allelic variation in natural amphibian populations. ?? 2010 Springer-Verlag.

Immunogenetics↗

USGS2007

Cleats and their relation to geologic lineaments and coalbed methane potential in Pennsylvanian coals in Indiana

Cleats and fractures in Pennsylvanian coals in southwestern Indiana were described, statistically analyzed, and subsequently interpreted in terms of their origin, relation to geologic lineaments, and significance for coal permeability and coalbed gas generation and storage. These cleats can be interpreted as the result of superimposed endogenic and exogenic processes. Endogenic processes are associated with coalification (i.e., matrix dehydration and shrinkage), while exogenic processes are mainly associated with larger-scale phenomena, such as tectonic stress. At least two distinct generations of cleats were identified on the basis of field reconnaissance and microscopic study: a first generation of cleats that developed early on during coalification and a second generation that cuts through the previous one at an angle that mimics the orientation of the present-day stress field. The observed parallelism between early-formed cleats and mapped lineaments suggests a well-established tectonic control during early cleat formation. Authigenic minerals filling early cleats represent the vestiges of once open hydrologic regimes. The second generation of cleats is characterized by less prominent features (i.e., smaller apertures) with a much less pronounced occurrence of authigenic mineralization. Our findings suggest a multistage development of cleats that resulted from tectonic stress regimes that changed orientation during coalification and basin evolution. The coals studied are characterized by a macrocleat distribution similar to that of well-developed coalbed methane basins (e.g., Black Warrior Basin, Alabama). Scatter plots and regression analyses of meso- and microcleats reveal a power-law distribution between spacing and cleat aperture. The same distribution was observed for fractures at microscopic scale. Our observations suggest that microcleats enhance permeability by providing additional paths for migration of gas out of the coal matrix, in addition to providing access for methanogenic bacteria. The abundance, distribution, and orientation of cleats control coal fabric and are crucial features in all stages of coalbed gas operations (i.e., exploration and production). Understanding coal fabric is important for coal gas exploration as it may be related to groundwater migration and the occurrence of methanogenic bacteria, prerequisite to biogenic gas accumulations. Likewise, the distribution of cleats in coal also determines pathways for migration and accumulation of thermogenic gas generated during coalification. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2017

Evidence for coseismic subsidence events in a southern California coastal saltmarsh

Paleoenvironmental records from a southern California coastal saltmarsh reveal evidence for repeated late Holocene coseismic subsidence events. Field analysis of sediment gouge cores established discrete lithostratigraphic units extend across the wetland. Detailed sediment analyses reveal abrupt changes in lithology, percent total organic matter, grain size, and magnetic susceptibility. Microfossil analyses indicate that predominantly freshwater deposits bury relic intertidal deposits at three distinct depths. Radiocarbon dating indicates that the three burial events occurred in the last 2000 calendar years. Two of the three events are contemporaneous with large-magnitude paleoearthquakes along the Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon fault system. From these data, we infer that during large magnitude earthquakes a step-over along the fault zone results in the vertical displacement of an approximately 5-km 2 area that is consistent with the footprint of an estuary identified in pre-development maps. These findings provide insight on the evolution of the saltmarsh, coseismic deformation and earthquake recurrence in a wide area of southern California, and sensitive habitat already threatened by eustatic sea level rise.

California↗

USGS2016

Evidence of multiple thermokarst lake generations from an 11800-year-old permafrost core on the northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Permafrost degradation influences the morphology, biogeochemical cycling and hydrology of Arctic landscapes over a range of time scales. To reconstruct temporal patterns of early to late Holocene permafrost and thermokarst dynamics, site-specific palaeo-records are needed. Here we present a multi-proxy study of a 350-cm-long permafrost core from a drained lake basin on the northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska, revealing Lateglacial to Holocene thermokarst lake dynamics in a central location of Beringia. Use of radiocarbon dating, micropalaeontology (ostracods and testaceans), sedimentology (grain-size analyses, magnetic susceptibility, tephra analyses), geochemistry (total nitrogen and carbon, total organic carbon, δ 13 C org ) and stable water isotopes (δ 18 O, δD, d excess) of ground ice allowed the reconstruction of several distinct thermokarst lake phases. These include a pre-lacustrine environment at the base of the core characterized by the Devil Mountain Maar tephra (22 800±280 cal. a BP, Unit A), which has vertically subsided in places due to subsequent development of a deep thermokarst lake that initiated around 11 800 cal. a BP (Unit B). At about 9000 cal. a BP this lake transitioned from a stable depositional environment to a very dynamic lake system (Unit C) characterized by fluctuating lake levels, potentially intermediate wetland development, and expansion and erosion of shore deposits. Complete drainage of this lake occurred at 1060 cal. a BP, including post-drainage sediment freezing from the top down to 154 cm and gradual accumulation of terrestrial peat (Unit D), as well as uniform upward talik refreezing. This core-based reconstruction of multiple thermokarst lake generations since 11 800 cal. a BP improves our understanding of the temporal scales of thermokarst lake development from initiation to drainage, demonstrates complex landscape evolution in the ice-rich permafrost regions of Central Beringia during the Lateglacial and Holocene, and enhances our understanding of biogeochemical cycles in thermokarst-affected regions of the Arctic.

Alaska↗

USGS2026

Syn-magmatic subsidence during the early stages of continental rifting in the Mesoproterozoic—A reanalysis of legacy data for the Midcontinent Rift, western Lake Superior

The Midcontinent Rift system (ca. 1.1 Ga) is a 2000-km-long series of elongated volcanic and sedimentary troughs and associated intrusive centers exposed chiefly in the Lake Superior region of North America. The rift system represents a long history of intense magmatism and subsequent sedimentation that was arrested by far-field tectonic events before sea-floor spreading was established. The premature cessation preserved a record of processes related to the beginning of continental rifting. The rift system under Lake Superior has been long studied using seismic-reflection data collected as part of the Great Lakes International Multidisciplinary Program on Crustal Evolution (GLIMPCE). We reexamine GLIMPCE Line C by developing a detailed velocity model for time to depth conversion constrained by other legacy data. We corroborate the model and develop a geologic interpretation using gravity and magnetic modeling and ties to geology mapped onshore. We recognize superposed subsiding sedimentary and volcanic basins for the southern half of the Line C depth section. This interpretation differs from previous paradigms that show major crustal faults that bound half-grabens or full grabens. We conclude that high-velocity (6.9 km/s) intrusive zones rather than major crustal faults border the sides of the basins. We speculate that the volcanic basin represents the initiation of seaward dipping reflectors. The syn-magmatic subsidence can be explained by dike injection and volcanic loading. Discrete lava basins throughout the region likely subsided at different times in a disorganized manner along the rift trend, raising questions about the long-term role of lithospheric thinning and melt generation.

Michigan, Minnesota, Ontario, Wisconsin↗

USGS1997

Sedimentation and subsidence patterns in the central and north basins of Lake Baikal from seismic stratigraphy

Comparison of sedimentation patterns, basement subsidence, and faulting histories in the north and central basins of Lake Baikal aids in developing an interbasinal seismic stratigraphy that reveals the early synrift evolution of the central portion of the Baikal rift, a major continental rift system. Although there is evidence that the central and northern rift basins evolved at approximately the same time, their sedimentation histories are markedly different. Primary sediment sources for the initial rift phase were from the east flank of the rift; two major deltas developed adjacent to the central basin: the Selenga delta at the south end and the Barguzin delta at the north end. The Barguzin River system, located at the accommodation zone between the central and north basins, also fed into the southern part of the north basin and facilitated the stratigraphic linkage of the two basins.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

USGS2020

Using multiple environmental proxies and hydrodynamic modeling to investigate Late Holocene climate and coastal change within a large Gulf of Mexico estuarine system (Mobile Bay, Alabama, USA)

A high degree of uncertainty exists for understanding and predicting coastal estuarine response to changing climate, land-use, and sea-level conditions, leaving geologic records as a best-proxy for constraining potential outcomes. With the majority of the world's population focused in coastal regions, understanding how local systems respond to global, regional, and even local pressures is key in developing mitigation, adaptation, and management plans. The geomorphology of Mobile Bay in southeast Alabama (USA) has evolved considerably (e.g., bayhead delta back-stepping) over the late Holocene in response to global and regional sea-level and climate change. Smaller-scale geomorphic changes (e.g., spit and beach ridge development) have also had a significant influence on the evolution of the estuary. Organic matter characteristics, inorganic sediment geochemistry, benthic microfossils, and pollen in a ~ 3500 cal yr BP sediment sequence recovered in a gravity core (20GC) from Bon Secour Bay, a small sub-bay in the southeast corner of Mobile Bay, record time-varying marine influence. Increases in marine influence during ~3500 to 2300 cal yr BP and 1930 to 1160 cal yr BP are defined as zones with high-density and pre-dominantly calcareous foraminiferal species, abundant sand (>10%) and more marine-like geochemical signatures, which contrast the low-density and pre-dominantly agglutinated foraminiferal and more terrestrially influenced estuarine muds observed in other intervals of the sedimentary record (2300–1930 and 1160–400 cal yr BP) and the modern bay. Hydrodynamic models constrained by geomorphic boundary conditions for the time ~ 3500 cal yr BP, consistent with the most prominent marine-influenced sediment, provide insight to potential coastal configuration that might have permitted such marine water intrusion into the bay. Of several scenarios evaluated, a breach in Morgan Peninsula produces tidal circulation within the basin supportive of persistent marine incursions in the bay between ~3500 to 2300 cal yr BP. The findings show that slight variations in coastal configuration can have broad-scale effects on bays and estuaries with consequences that may relate to water quality, vertebrate and invertebrate habitat, and coastal vulnerability to episodic events like (extra)tropical storms.

Alabama, Mississippi↗

USGS2022

Fluoride in thermal and non-thermal groundwater: Insights from geochemical modeling

High fluoride (F) groundwaters (>1 mg/L) have been recognized as a water quality problem for nearly a century and occur in many countries worldwide. The affected aquifers can be sedimentary, metamorphic or igneous rocks, but the process giving rise to high-F concentrations has been studied with geochemical modeling and an examination of the rock sources. The association of high-F with silicic igneous rocks such as granites and rhyolites results from magmatic differentiation (fractional crystallization, fractional melting, and crustal assimilation) wherein F is enriched in the liquid phase because of its incompatibility in the mafic minerals that crystallize early during cooling. Further development of F-rich groundwaters occurs during the evolution of Na-HCO 3 waters because of removal of Ca through ion-exchange and calcite precipitation, thereby raising the F concentration from minerals like fluorite and fluorapatite to maintain solubility equilibrium. Increasing temperatures enhance this effect because of the retrograde solubility of calcite. From geochemical modeling using the PhreeqcI code, the primary variables controlling F concentrations are DIC (dissolved inorganic carbon), salinity (ionic strength), P CO2 , and temperature. Complexing is also important but plays a more secondary role. Considering these variables, an improved set of plotting parameters, F/Cl vs. HCO 3 /Cl, are shown to be effective in interpreting groundwater analyses. This approach is demonstrated by examining case studies from the Black Creek aquifer, South Carolina, USA, the Madison regional aquifer, midwestern USA, the Mizunami Underground Research Laboratory, Japan, New Zealand thermal waters, the San Luis Valley groundwaters, Colorado, USA, and the Aquia aquifer, Maryland, USA.

Science of the Total Evironment↗

USGS2019

Artificial intelligence and avian influenza: Using machine learning to enhance active surveillance for avian influenza viruses

Influenza A viruses are one of the most significant viral groups globally with substantial impacts on human, domestic animal and wildlife health. Wild birds are the natural reservoirs for these viruses, and active surveillance within wild bird populations provides critical information about viral evolution forming the basis of risk assessments and countermeasure development. Unfortunately, active surveillance programs are often resource‐intensive, and thus, enhancing programs for increased efficiency is paramount. Machine learning, a branch of artificial intelligence applications, provides statistical learning procedures that can be used to gain novel insights into disease surveillance systems. We use a form of machine learning, gradient boosted trees, to estimate the probability of isolating avian influenza viruses (AIV) from wild bird samples collected during surveillance for AIVs from 2006 to 2011 in the United States. We examined several predictive features including age, sex, bird type, geographic location and matrix gene rRT‐PCR results. Our final model had high predictive power and only included geographic location and rRT‐PCR results as important predictors. The highest predicted viral isolation probability was for samples collected from the north‐central states and the south‐eastern region of Alaska. Lower rRT‐PCR Ct‐values are associated with increased likelihood of AIV isolation, and the model estimated 16% probability of isolating AIV from samples declared negative (i.e., ≥35 Ct‐value) using the rRT‐PCR screening test and standard protocols. Our model can be used to prioritize previously collected samples for isolation and rapidly evaluate AIV surveillance designs to maximize the probability of viral isolation given limited resources and laboratory capacity.

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases↗

USGS2006

Trade-offs across space, time, and ecosystem services

Ecosystem service (ES) trade-offs arise from management choices made by humans, which can change the type, magnitude, and relative mix of services provided by ecosystems. Trade-offs occur when the provision of one ES is reduced as a consequence of increased use of another ES. In some cases, a trade-off may be an explicit choice; but in others, trade-offs arise without premeditation or even awareness that they are taking place. Trade-offs in ES can be classified along three axes: spatial scale, temporal scale, and reversibility. Spatial scale refers to whether the effects of the trade-off are felt locally or at a distant location. Temporal scale refers to whether the effects take place relatively rapidly or slowly. Reversibility expresses the likelihood that the perturbed ES may return to its original state if the perturbation ceases. Across all four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios and selected case study examples, trade-off decisions show a preference for provisioning, regulating, or cultural services (in that order). Supporting services are more likely to be "taken for granted." Cultural ES are almost entirely unquantified in scenario modeling; therefore, the calculated model results do not fully capture losses of these services that occur in the scenarios. The quantitative scenario models primarily capture the services that are perceived by society as more important - provisioning and regulating ecosystem services - and thus do not fully capture trade-offs of cultural and supporting services. Successful management policies will be those that incorporate lessons learned from prior decisions into future management actions. Managers should complement their actions with monitoring programs that, in addition to monitoring the short-term provisions of services, also monitor the long-term evolution of slowly changing variables. Policies can then be developed to take into account ES trade-offs at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Successful strategies will recognize the inherent complexities of ecosystem management and will work to develop policies that minimize the effects of ES trade-offs. Copyright ?? 2006 by the author(s).

Ecology and Society↗