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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

A survey protocol for the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus)

The southwestern willow flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) is a riparian obligate neotropical migrant, nesting in cottonwood-willow associations and structurally similar riparian vegetation associations. The southwestern willow flycatcher has declined through the twentieth century, primarily due to a number of factors, including loss and fragmentation of riparian habitat, brood parasitism by brown-headed cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ), invasion of riparian habitat by the exotic tamarisk ( Tamarix sp.), and predation (Hunter et al. 1987), Unitt 1987, Hunter et al. 1988, Whitfield 1990, Harris 1991, Rosenberg et al. 1991). In 1991 the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) designated the southwestern willow flycatcher as a candidate category 1 species (USFWS 1991), indicating that the USFWS had sufficient information to support listing under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended (Act), but that a proposal to list was precluded by other listing actions of higher priority. In July 1993, the USFWS proposed to list E. t. extimus as an endangered species and to designate critical habitat under the Act (USFWS 1993). The states of Arizona, New Mexico, and California comprise most of the southwestern willow flycatcher's historic and current range. Each of these states lists the species as endangered [Arizona Game and Fish Department (AGFD) 1988, New Mexico Department of Game and Fish (NMDGF) 1988, California Department of Game and Fish 1991]. Because of the precarious status of the southwestern willow flycatcher (Unitt 1987, USFWS 1993), there is a need to identify as many remaining breeding locations as possible. This survey protocol was developed to facilitate and standardize breeding surveys, and is based primarily on extensive 1992 and 1993 field surveys. It was developed at the request of the Arizona Partners in flight, and organization of Federal and State agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and individuals. This protocol is intended to be useful throughout the range of the southwestern willow flycatcher. The authors welcome any suggestions on refining this protocol.

Report↗

Multi-decadal sandbar response to flow management downstream from a large dam—The Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River in Marble and Grand Canyons, Arizona

Sandbars are an important resource in the Colorado River corridor in Marble and Grand Canyons, Arizona, downstream from Glen Canyon Dam. Sandbars provide aquatic and riparian habitat and are used as campsites by river runners and hikers. The study area is the Colorado River between Glen Canyon Dam and Diamond Creek, which is about 388 kilometers (241 miles) downstream from the dam. Closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963 and subsequent flow regulation reduced the sediment supply, limited the magnitude and frequency of floods, and increased the magnitude of baseflows. The result has been widespread erosion of sandbars and expansion of native and non-native vegetation on previously bare sand deposits in this debris-fan dominated canyon river. This study reports on the on-going long-term measurement program of Northern Arizona University, initiated in 1990 with the Bureau of Reclamation, and now also with the U.S. Geological Survey’s Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center. We report on all sandbar measurements made between 1990 and 2020 to demonstrate the multi-decadal response of the sandbar monitoring sites resulting from flow regulation by Glen Canyon Dam. Because only one study site is located in Glen Canyon, the 25 kilometer (15.5 miles) reach just below Glen Canyon Dam, analyses of sandbar response are only made for the next two canyon segments in the down-river direction, Marble Canyon (388 kilometers [99 miles]) and Grand Canyon (265 kilometers [165 miles]), respectively, where the majority of study sites are located. We show that a majority of monitoring sites increased in volume during a period of frequent controlled floods intended to rebuild sandbars. In the period from 2004 to 2020, which included seven controlled floods, a median discharge of 350 cubic meters per second (m 3 /s), and greater than average tributary sand inputs in more than half of the years, net deposition occurred at 86 percent of long-term monitoring sites. This period was preceded by a period of net erosion (1990–2003) when there was one controlled flood greater than the nominal powerplant capacity of 940 m 3 /s. During this period the median discharge from Glen Canyon Dam was 376 m 3 /s and greater than average sand inputs occurred in only 36 percent of those years. At the end of the monitoring period in 2020, 61 percent of the study sites measured since 1990 underwent a net increase in sand volume. For the entire 31-year period, these trends were statistically significant for all six sandbar types studied, indicating that increased frequency of controlled flooding maintained sandbar volume at the majority of sites monitored. These floods, also referred to as high-flow experiments (HFEs), are part of a decision-making protocol approved in 2012 for coordinating dam releases timed to occur following large sand inputs to the Colorado River by a major tributary. These findings are based on digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from approximately (~)1,800 repeat surveys of sandbar and channel bed topography made annually, or more frequently, at the 45 long-term monitoring sites, of which 31 have been monitored since 1990 and 14 were added between 1990 and 2008. This large collection of monitoring sites comprises just 7 to 9 percent of all sandbars in Marble and Grand Canyons, respectively. Nevertheless, when compared with measurements of a larger sample, these sites provide consistent characterization of average sandbar response, despite the local variability in channel and debris fan geometry. We use sand volume and normalized sand volume for tracking geomorphic changes of sandbars, because these metrics are sensitive to both changes in sandbar area and sandbar elevation. Based on checkpoint comparisons and repeat measurements, DEM elevation uncertainty was determined to be ±0.05 meter (m) and this uncertainty was used in a spatially uniform estimate of volume uncertainty. We find that the magnitudes of the topographic changes were substantially greater than the measurement uncertainty. Sandbars of similar type throughout both Marble and Grand Canyons have responded similarly during the period of the HFE protocol, despite variations in sand supply and longitudinal extent of those inputs. It should be noted that tributary-supplied sand to Glen Canyon is negligible, much of the riverbed is now armored with cobbles, and the channel bed degradation is irreversible in the current flow and sediment supply regime. Because all these HFEs have been conducted during periods of sediment enrichment, other factors such as vegetation and geomorphic setting are likely the primary causes of variation among the monitoring sites. A larger percentage of the sandbar population, predominantly located in narrow reaches where stage changes are greater, is composed of sandbar types that remain dynamic and consistently aggrade during HFEs. In contrast, wide reaches of the river corridor where stage change is not as great are characterized by sandbars that have been stabilized by vegetation and progressive aggradation during floods. In the former case, a majority of sandbars are likely to remain dynamic, requiring continued use of HFEs to achieve desired management goals. In the latter case, HFEs can do no better than replace the sediment eroded during normal dam operation between high-flow events, as they become less effective because of a diminishing amount of accommodation space available for deposition. Long-term sandbar trajectory and the continued effectiveness of HFEs are related to the differential vegetation establishment at each bar type. Future sandbar monitoring may need to consider the effects of riparian vegetation removal.

Arizona↗

Long Term Resource Monitoring Program procedures: fish monitoring

This manual constitutes the second revision of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Upper Mississippi River Restoration-Environmental Management Program (UMRR-EMP) Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP) element Fish Procedures Manual. The original (1988) manual merged and expanded on ideas and recommendations related to Upper Mississippi River fish sampling presented in several early documents. The first revision to the manual was made in 1995 reflecting important protocol changes, such as the adoption of a stratified random sampling design. The 1995 procedures manual has been an important document through the years and has been cited in many reports and scientific manuscripts. The resulting data collected by the LTRMP fish component represent the largest dataset on fish within the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) with more than 44,000 collections of approximately 5.7 million fish. The goal of this revision of the procedures manual is to document changes in LTRMP fish sampling procedures since 1995. Refinements to sampling methods become necessary as monitoring programs mature. Possible refinements are identified through field experiences (e.g., sampling techniques and safety protocols), data analysis (e.g., planned and studied gear efficiencies and reallocations of effort), and technological advances (e.g., electronic data entry). Other changes may be required because of financial necessity (i.e., unplanned effort reductions). This version of the LTRMP fish monitoring manual describes the most current (2014) procedures of the LTRMP fish component.

Illinois;Iowa;Minnesota;Montana;Wisconsin↗

Global Modern Charcoal Dataset (GMCD): A tool for exploring proxy-fire linkages and spatial patterns of biomass burning

Progresses in reconstructing Earth's history of biomass burning has motivated the development of a modern charcoal dataset covering the last decades through a community-based initiative called the Global Modern Charcoal Dataset (GMCD). As the frequency, intensity and spatial scale of fires are predicted to increase regionally and globally in conjunction with changing climate, anthropogenic activities and land-use patterns, there is an increasing need to further understand, calibrate and interrogate recent and past fire regimes as related to changing fire emissions and changing carbon sources and sinks. Discussions at the PAGES Global Paleofire Working Group workshop 2015, including paleoecologists, numerical modelers, statisticians, paleoclimatologists, archeologists, and anthropologists, identified an urgent need for an open, standardized, quality-controlled and globally representative dataset of modern sedimentary charcoal and other sediment-based fire proxies. This dataset fits into a gap between metrics of biomass burning indicators, current fire regimes and land cover, and carbon emissions inventories. The dataset will enable the calibration of paleofire data with other modern datasets including: data of satellite derived fire occurrence, vegetation patterns and species diversity, land cover change, and a range of sources capturing biochemical cycling. Standardized protocols are presented for collecting and analyzing sediment-based fire proxies, including charcoal, levoglucosan, black carbon, and soot. The GMCD will provide a publicly-accessible repository of modern fire sediment surface samples in all terrestrial ecosystems. Sample collection and contributions to the dataset will be solicited from lacustrine, peat, marine, glacial, or other sediments, from a wide variety of ecosystems and geographic locations .

Quaternary International↗

Climate change and plant community composition in national parks of the southwestern US: forecasting regional, long-term effects to meet management needs

The National Park Service (NPS) faces tremendous management challenges in the future as climates alter the abundance and distribution of plant species. These challenges will be especially daunting in the southwestern U.S., where large increases in aridity are forecasted. The expected reduction in water availability will negatively affect plant growth and may result in shifts of plant community composition. Synthesis of climate and plant vital sign data from National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) networks is essential to provide park managers with important insights into contemporary climate responses and a sound basis to forecast likely future changes at species, community, and ecosystem scales. We describe a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and NPS in which we have conducted regional cross-site assessments across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts to understand plant species responses to past climate and forecast future plant community composition. We also determined whether a widely-implemented vegetation monitoring protocol in these deserts is suitable to track long-term vegetation changes caused by climate and other factors. Our results from these analyses are intended to help natural resource managers identify and prepare for changes in plant cover and community composition and evaluate the efficacy of current monitoring programs.

Arizona, New Mexico, Texas↗

Comparative evaluation of molecular diagnostic tests for Nucleospora salmonis and prevalence in migrating juvenile salmonids from the Snake River, USA

Nucleospora salmonis is an intranuclear microsporidian that primarily infects lymphoblast cells and contributes to chronic lymphoblastosis and a leukemia-like condition in a range of salmonid species. The primary goal of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of N. salmonis in out-migrating juvenile hatchery and wild Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead O. mykiss from the Snake River in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. To achieve this goal, we first addressed the following concerns about current molecular diagnostic tests for N. salmonis : (1) nonspecific amplification patterns by the published nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR) test, (2) incomplete validation of the published quantitative PCR (qPCR) test, and (3) whether N. salmonis can be detected reliably from nonlethal samples. Here, we present an optimized nPCR protocol that eliminates nonspecific amplification. During validation of the published qPCR test, our laboratory developed a second qPCR test that targeted a different gene sequence and used different probe chemistry for comparison purposes. We simultaneously evaluated the two different qPCR tests for N. salmonis and found that both assays were highly specific, sensitive, and repeatable. The nPCR and qPCR tests had good overall concordance when DNA samples derived from both apparently healthy and clinically diseased hatchery rainbow trout were tested. Finally, we demonstrated that gill snips were a suitable tissue for nonlethal detection of N. salmonis DNA in juvenile salmonids. Monitoring of juvenile salmonid fish in the Snake River over a 3-year period revealed low prevalence of N. salmonis in hatchery and wild Chinook salmon and wild steelhead but significantly higher prevalence in hatchery-derived steelhead. Routine monitoring of N. salmonis is not performed for all hatchery steelhead populations. At present, the possible contribution of this pathogen to delayed mortality of steelhead has not been determined.

Journal of Aquatic Animal Health↗

Survey and monitoring of species at risk at Camp Blanding Training Site, northeastern Florida

We studied the presence and distribution of 19 species at risk in northeastern Florida at the Camp Blanding Training Site (CBTS) during 2000-2001, seven years after the first major baseline surveys of CBTS were conducted. Much of the training conducted at CBTS deals with light infantry exercises, but the site is also used for mining, silviculture, hunting, fishing, emergency logistical support, and entertainment purposes. CBTS contains more than 2000 species of plants and animals in 14 natural communities, each impacted to various degrees by past and current land management. Adaptive management plans for species may be ineffective without continual feedback and the flexibility for change. Here we summarize and discuss the results of our surveys, compare these results with those of past surveys, identify differences between the surveys, and discuss the importance of systematic protocols and study design for CBTS environmental managers.

Southeastern Naturalist↗

Updated operational protocols for the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation Chemistry Quality Assurance Project in support of the National Atmospheric Deposition Program

The U.S. Geological Survey Branch of Quality Systems operates the Precipitation Chemistry Quality Assurance Project (PCQA) for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) and National Atmospheric Deposition Program/Mercury Deposition Network (NADP/MDN). Since 1978, various programs have been implemented by the PCQA to estimate data variability and bias contributed by changing protocols, equipment, and sample submission schemes within NADP networks. These programs independently measure the field and laboratory components which contribute to the overall variability of NADP wet-deposition chemistry and precipitation depth measurements. The PCQA evaluates the quality of analyte-specific chemical analyses from the two, currently (2016) contracted NADP laboratories, Central Analytical Laboratory and Mercury Analytical Laboratory, by comparing laboratory performance among participating national and international laboratories. Sample contamination and stability are evaluated for NTN and MDN by using externally field-processed blank samples provided by the Branch of Quality Systems. A colocated sampler program evaluates the overall variability of NTN measurements and bias between dissimilar precipitation gages and sample collectors. This report documents historical PCQA operations and general procedures for each of the external quality-assurance programs from 2007 to 2016.

Open-File Report↗

Specific electrical conductance

Electrical conductance is a measure of the capacity of a substance to conduct an electrical current. The specific electrical conductance (conductivity) of water is a function of the types and quantities of dissolved substances it contains, normalized to a unit length and unit cross section at a specified temperature. This section of the National Field Manual (NFM) describes U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) guidance and protocols for measurement of conductivity in ground and surface waters.

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations↗

Model-data fusion in the studies of terrestrial carbon sink

Current uncertainty in quantifying the global carbon budget remains a major contributing source of uncertainty in reliably projecting future climate change. Furthermore, quantifying the global carbon budget and characterizing uncertainties have emerged as critical to a successful implementation of United National Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol. Beyond fundamental quantification, attribution of the processes responsible for the so-called ‘residual terrestrial uptake’ is important to the carbon cycle communities’ ability to simulated the future response of the terrestrial biosphere to climate change and intentional sequestration activities. This paper’s objective is to describe the efforts of the workshop participants and their approaches to model-data fusion enabling continued advances in the solution of quantifying carbon cycling and the terrestrial mechanisms at work.

Conference Paper↗

Model-data fusion in studies of the terrestrial carbon sink

Current uncertainty in quantifying the global carbon budget remains a major contributing source of uncertainty in reliably projecting future climate change. Furthermore, quantifying the global carbon budget and characterising uncertainties have emerged as critical to a successful implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol. Beyond fundamental quantification, attribution of the processes responsible for the so-called ‘residual terrestrial uptake’ is important to the carbon cycle communities' ability to simulate the future response of the terrestrial biosphere to climate change and intentional sequestration activities. The objective of this chapter is to describe the approaches to model-data fusion enabling continued advances in quantifying carbon cycling and the terrestrial mechanisms at work. The major impediments to advances in this field include accounting for climate variability and uncertainties in model outcomes. One proposed solution to overcome these obstacles is the use of data from the FLUXNET network to characterise the relative strength of climate impact on plant productivity and respiration. Other solutions involve the use of atmospheric CO 2 concentration measurements for model validation and the use of remote sensing data.

Book chapter↗

Review of trap-and-haul for managing Pacific salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) in impounded river systems

High-head dams are migration barriers for Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. in many river systems and recovery measures for impacted stocks are limited. Trap-and-haul has been widely used in attempts to facilitate recovery but information from existing programs has not been synthesized to inform improvements to aid recovery of salmonids in systems with high-head dams. We reviewed 17 trap-and-haul programs regarding Pacific salmon to: (1) summarize information about facility design, operation and biological effects; (2) identify critical knowledge gaps; and (3) evaluate trap-and-haul as a current and future management tool. Existing programs are operated to address a range of management goals including restoring access to historical habitats, temporarily reducing exposure to dangerous in-river conditions, and reintroducing ecological processes upstream from dams. Information gathered from decades of operation on facility design criteria and fish handling protocols, and robust literature on fish collection and passage are available. While many aspects of trap-and-haul have been evaluated, effects on population productivity and sustainability remain poorly understood. Long-term and systematic studies of trap-and-haul outcomes are rare, and assessments can be confounded by concurrent management actions and broad ecological and climatic effects. Existing data suggest that performance and effectiveness vary among programs and over various time scales within programs. Although critical information gaps exist, trap-and-haul is an important management and conservation tool for providing Pacific salmonids access to historical habitats. Successful application of trap-and-haul programs requires long-term commitment and an adaptive management approach by dam owners and stakeholders, and careful planning of new programs.

California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

How to overcome inter-electrode variability and instability to quantify dissolved oxygen, Fe(II), mn(II), and S(−II) in undisturbed soils and sediments using voltammetry

Background - Although uniquely capable of measuring multiple redox constituents nearly simultaneously with no or minimal sample pretreatment, voltammetry is currently underutilized in characterizing redox conditions in aquatic and terrestrial systems. Investigation of undisturbed media such as pore water requires a solid-state electrode, and such electrodes can be difficult to fabricate reproducibly. An approach to determine the concentrations of electroactive constituents using indirectly calibrated electrodes has been developed, but the protocol for and accuracy of this approach—the pilot ion method—has not been documented in detail. Results - A detailed procedure for testing electrode quality is provided, and the application and limitations of the pilot ion method have been documented. To quantify Fe(II) and Mn(II), subtraction of non-linear baseline functions from voltammetric signals produced better calibration curves than did linear baselines, enabled lower detection limits and reliable deconvolution of overlapping signals, and was successfully applied to sediment pore water signals. We observed that electrode sensitivities often vary by tens of percent, and that the sensitivity declines over time. The ratio of calibration slopes of Mn(II) to Fe(II) varied by no more than 11% from one Hg/Au electrode to another and Fe(II) concentrations predicted by the Mn(II) pilot ion were, on average, 13% different from their actual values. However, concentration predictions by the pilot ion method were worse for less than 15 μM Fe(II) (46% different on average). The ratio of calibration slopes of Mn(II) to S(−II) varied by almost 20% from one Hg/Au electrode to another, and S(−II) predicted concentrations were as much as 58% different from their actual values. These predictions of Fe(II) and S(−II) concentrations indicate that the accuracy of the pilot ion method depends on how independent calibration slope ratios are from the electrode used. At medium-to-high concentration for the ocean, naturally derived dissolved organic carbon did not significantly affect the baseline-corrected electrode response of Mn(II) and Fe(II), but did significantly affect the response of S(−II). Conclusions - Despite their intrinsic variability, Hg/Au electrodes fabricated by hand can be used to quantify O2, S(−II), Fe(II), and Mn(II) without calibrating every electrode for every constituent of interest. The pilot ion method can achieve accuracies to within 20% or less, provided that the underlying principle—the independence of slope ratios—is demonstrated for all voltammetric techniques used, and effects of the physicochemical properties of the system on voltammetric signals are addressed through baseline subtraction.

Geochemical Transactions↗

Introduction to Field Water-Quality Methods for the Collection of Metals - 2007 Project Summary

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Region VI of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), and the Osage Nation presented three 3-day workshops, in June-August 2007, entitled ?Introduction to Field Water-Quality Methods for the Collection of Metals.? The purpose of the workshops was to provide instruction to tribes within USEPA Region VI on various USGS surface-water measurement methods and water-quality sampling protocols for the collection of surface-water samples for metals analysis. Workshop attendees included members from over 22 tribes and pueblos. USGS instructors came from Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Georgia. Workshops were held in eastern and south-central Oklahoma and New Mexico and covered many topics including presampling preparation, water-quality monitors, and sampling for metals in surface water. Attendees spent one full classroom day learning the field methods used by the USGS Water Resources Discipline and learning about the complexity of obtaining valid water-quality and quality-assurance data. Lectures included (1) a description of metal contamination sources in surface water; (2) introduction on how to select field sites, equipment, and laboratories for sample analysis; (3) collection of sediment in surface water; and (4) utilization of proper protocol and methodology for sampling metals in surface water. Attendees also were provided USGS sampling equipment for use during the field portion of the class so they had actual ?hands-on? experience to take back to their own organizations. The final 2 days of the workshop consisted of field demonstrations of current USGS water-quality sample-collection methods. The hands-on training ensured that attendees were exposed to and experienced proper sampling procedures. Attendees learned integrated-flow techniques during sample collection, field-property documentation, and discharge measurements and calculations. They also used enclosed chambers for sample processing and collected quality-assurance samples to verify their techniques. Benefits of integrated water-quality sample-collection methods are varied. Tribal environmental programs now have the ability to collect data that are comparable across watersheds. The use of consistent sample collection, manipulation, and storage techniques will provide consistent quality data that will enhance the understanding of local water resources. The improved data quality also will help the USEPA better document the condition of the region?s water. Ultimately, these workshops equipped tribes to use uniform sampling methods and to provide consistent quality data that are comparable across the region.

Fact Sheet↗

A volcanic activity alert-level system for aviation: Review of its development and application in Alaska

An alert-level system for communicating volcano hazard information to the aviation industry was devised by the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) during the 1989–1990 eruption of Redoubt Volcano. The system uses a simple, color-coded ranking that focuses on volcanic ash emissions: Green—normal background; Yellow—signs of unrest; Orange—precursory unrest or minor ash eruption; Red—major ash eruption imminent or underway. The color code has been successfully applied on a regional scale in Alaska for a sustained period. During 2002–2011, elevated color codes were assigned by AVO to 13 volcanoes, eight of which erupted; for that decade, one or more Alaskan volcanoes were at Yellow on 67 % of days and at Orange or Red on 12 % of days. As evidence of its utility, the color code system is integrated into procedures of agencies responsible for air-traffic management and aviation meteorology in Alaska. Furthermore, it is endorsed as a key part of globally coordinated protocols established by the International Civil Aviation Organization to provide warnings of ash hazards to aviation worldwide. The color code and accompanying structured message (called a Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation) comprise an effective early-warning message system according to the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. The aviation color code system currently is used in the United States, Russia, New Zealand, Iceland, and partially in the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and Indonesia. Although there are some barriers to implementation, with continued education and outreach to Volcano Observatories worldwide, greater use of the aviation color code system is achievable.

Alaska↗

Assessing the risks posed by SARS-CoV-2 in and via North American bats — Decision framing and rapid risk assessment

The novel β-coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, may pose a threat to North American bat populations if bats are exposed to the virus through interaction with humans, if the virus can subsequently infect bats and be transmitted among them, and if the virus causes morbidity or mortality in bats. Further, if SARS-CoV-2 became established in bat populations, it could possibly serve as a source for new infection in humans, domesticated animals, or other wild animals. Wildlife management agencies in the United States are concerned about these potential risks and have begun to issue guidance regarding work that brings humans into contact with bats, but decision making is difficult because of the high degree of uncertainty about many of the relevant processes that could lead to virus transmission and establishment. The risk assessment described in this report was undertaken to provide management agencies with an understanding of the likelihood that the various steps in the causal pathways would lead to SARS-CoV-2 infection of North American bats from people. This assessment focused on the active season for bats in the temperate zone of North America (April 15 through November 15), and used Myotis lucifugus (little brown bats) as a surrogate species. At the time of this work (April 2020), no empirical data about the effects of SARS-CoV-2 on North American bats were available, so a formal process of expert judgment was used to elicit estimates of the underlying parameters. Twelve experts in bat ecology, epidemiology, virology, and wildlife disease from the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia participated in the elicitation. A Monte Carlo simulation model was used to integrate the parameter estimates elicited from the experts and to predict the likelihood of exposure and infection in bats through a series of transmission pathways, with particular attention to capturing uncertainty in the predictions. Given the current state of knowledge as expressed by the expert panel, the results of this assessment indicate that there is a non-negligible risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to bats. For example, if a research scientist were shedding SARS-CoV-2 virus while handling bats under the field protocols used in North America prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the risk model indicates that 50 percent (uncertainty, 15–84 percent) of those bats could be exposed to virus, and 17 percent (uncertainty, 3–51 percent) could become infected. Use of personal protective equipment, especially a respirator, is expected to reduce the exposure risk. The expert panel estimated that exposure risk from research scientists could be reduced 94–96 percent (uncertainty, 86–99 percent) through proper use of appropriate N95 respirators (a type of mechanical filter worn over the nose and mouth), dedicated clothing (such as Tyvek coveralls), and gloves. Should any North American bats become infected with SARS-CoV-2, the expert panel estimated that there is an approximately 33-percent chance the virus could spread within a bat population. This study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, identified several critical uncertainties that could affect the estimate of risks associated with SARS-CoV-2 entering bat populations—notably, the underlying probability that a human would be shedding virus while working with bats, the likelihood of the virus replicating in bat tissue, and the likelihood of transmission of the virus within bat populations. Ongoing empirical work during May–October 2020 may shed light on these issues. Follow-up work is needed to better understand the probability of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to bats from the general public; the manner in which the probabilities of exposure, infection, and transmission would differ during hibernation compared to the breeding season; and the likelihood of important effects, like morbidity and mortality in bats, the possibility of zoonosis from a North American bat reservoir, and effects of and on other wildlife.

North America↗

Estimating abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation using aerial surveys, 2011 and 2012

The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture-recapture studies indicate that abundance remained stable between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival were documented during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double observer and distance sampling protocols. We also surveyed small islands in Hudson Bay and James Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark-recapture distance sampling and sightresight models yielded a model-averaged estimate of 868 (SE: 177) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (951; SE: 177) suggests that abundance has remained unchanged. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given the previous increases in the duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

Hudson Bay↗

Estimating the abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation with aerial surveys

The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture–recapture studies indicate abundance was likely unchanged between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival occurred during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double-observer and distance sampling protocols. We surveyed small islands in James Bay and eastern Hudson Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark–recapture distance sampling and sight–resight models yielded an estimate of 860 (SE = 174) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (943; SE = 174) suggests that abundance is unlikely to have changed significantly since 1986. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture–recapture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given previous increases in duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

Polar Biology↗