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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

USGS2020

Sediment transport in a restored, river-influenced Pacific Northwest estuary

Predicting the success of future investments in coastal and estuarine ecosystem restorations is limited by scarce data quantifying sediment budgets and transport processes of prior restorations. This study provides detailed analyses of the hydrodynamics and sediment fluxes of a recently restored U.S. Pacific Northwest estuary, a 61 ha former agricultural area near the mouth of the Stillaguamish River in Washington, USA. Water level, flow velocity, and suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) were measured between 21 March 2014 and 1 June 2015 at breaches excavated in the former flood-protection levee to determine transport patterns and the net sediment budget of the restoration area. SSC within the restoration area was primarily controlled by SSC variability of the nearby main stem Stillaguamish, but coastal processes also played a major role in sediment delivery. Fluvial sediment loading was dominated by runoff events associated with rainfall that lasted hours to a few days. Additionally, the 22 March 2014 SR 530 (Oso) landslide elevated sediment supply to the restoration area and coastal region for several weeks, indicating the importance of distal geomorphic events to coastal sediment budgets in small mountainous river systems. Sediment fluxes were controlled by river SSC and tidal dynamics, which set the quantity of water transported into the restoration area. Peak water discharge at the restoration area was about 12% of the river discharge, and peak sediment flux at the restoration area was about 5% of the river sediment discharge, although net sediment import was < 1% of the total river load. Although sediment was imported to the restoration area, and inferred rates of accretion appear sufficient to keep pace with present rates of local sea-level rise, full recovery is challenged by significant lost grade from historical subsidence and will likely take decades to centuries. These results have implications for estuary restoration planning globally and indicate the importance of understanding coupled fluvial–coastal processes.

Washington↗

USGS2020

Large-scale erosion driven by intertidal eelgrass loss in an estuarine environment

Seagrasses influence local hydrodynamics by inducing drag on the flow and dampening near-bed velocities and wave energy. When seagrasses are lost, near-bed currents and wave energy can increase, which enhances bottom shear stresses, destabilizes sediment, and promotes suspension and erosion. Though seagrasses are being lost rapidly globally, the magnitude of change in sediment stabilization following ecosystem-wide eelgrass loss has rarely been measured. In this study, we explored the geomorphological changes associated with an unprecedented estuary-wide collapse of a seagrass (eelgrass, Zostera marina ) in Morro Bay, CA, USA. Morro Bay has historically suffered from accelerated sedimentation and accretion. However, following massive eelgrass loss since 2010, over 90% of locations that previously had eelgrass experienced erosion. Elevation losses (erosion) reached 0.50 m in some places (mean loss of 0.10 m) with as much as a 50% decrease (median decrease of 13.6%) in elevation (i.e., increase in depth) compared to pre-decline levels. In comparison, the mouth of the estuary, where eelgrass was largely retained, had only 27.7% of the locations with prior eelgrass experiencing erosion and underwent a mean elevation increase (accretion) of 0.32 m. Thus, the loss of eelgrass appears to have altered dynamics at the seabed and transitioned large regions of the estuary from an environment that promotes deposition and accretion to one that promotes suspension and erosion. Large-scale erosion following seagrass loss may be predictive of future shoreline and coastal habitat changes and is likely to be exacerbated by increased storm surge and sea level rise expected with climate change.

California↗

USGS2021

Lateral shoreline erosion and shore-proximal sediment deposition on a coastal marsh from seasonal, storm and decadal measurements

The persistence of coastal marsh is dependent on its ability to maintain elevation relative to sea level, particularly for marshes experiencing high rates of shoreline erosion due to wave-attack, storms, and sea level rise. Sediments eroded at the marsh edge are either delivered onto the marsh platform or into the estuary, the latter resulting in a net loss of marsh sediments and soil carbon. Knowledge on the timing, pattern, and quantity of sediment deposition versus shoreline erosion along the marsh-estuary interface is critical for evaluating the overall health and vulnerability of coastal marshes to future scenarios of sea level rise and for estimating sediment budgets . Here we examined marsh shoreline erosion and sediment deposition for marsh sites experiencing a range of shoreline erosion rates and different levels of wind-wave exposure within the Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve and Wildlife Refuge in Mississippi. We developed a method for calculating an erosion-deposition sediment budget using marsh elevation profiles, shoreline erosion rate, and sediment deposition measurements. Sediment budgets were calculated at four sites with varying shoreline erosion rates. Much of the sediment eroded at the marsh edge can be accounted for as marsh platform deposition, except at the most erosive site, suggesting a possible erosion threshold where eroded sediment mass is greater than platform deposition. Consistent with other studies of marsh creeks, sediment delivery to the marsh platform appears to be largely driven by wave climate. These data suggest that for erosive bay-estuarine shorelines, sediment delivered into the marsh is largely concentrated near the marsh shoreline, although shoreline erosion does not always result in a net loss of sediments from the marsh system in either decadal or annual assessments.

Mississippi↗

USGS2019

Nest survival of Black-necked Stilts (Himantopus mexicanus) on the upper Texas coast, USA

The Black-necked Stilt ( Himantopus mexicanus ) is a migratory shorebird of temperate and tropical America. Declining wetland quality and associated declines in hydrological integrity may contribute to widespread habitat loss for stilts nesting on the upper Texas Gulf of Mexico coast of the USA, as both fresh and brackish marshes are converting to open water and saline marsh. Nests ( n = 356) were monitored in three wetland types on the upper Texas coast from 21 April-30 June 2011-2012. Of these 356 nests, 151 were located in managed freshwater wetlands (16 in 2011 and 135 in 2012), 128 were located in managed intermediate wetlands (75 in 2011 and 53 in 2012), and 77 were located in rice fields (all in 2012). Collectively, nest success was 0.2% (0 in rice fields and as high as 4.3% in freshwater wetlands in 2012), among the lowest ever reported for the species. The most frequent cause of nest failure was predation by mammalian and avian predators (∼50%). Daily nest survival rate was positively related to mudflat nesting substrates and negatively related to colony size, rice field, and brackish coastal wetland habitats. Future efforts to minimize edge effects in managed wetlands may prove valuable to improve nest success of stilts and other species that nest in similar wetland types.

Texas↗

USGS2025

Comparisons of shoreline positions from satellite-derived and traditional field- and remote-sensing techniques

Satellite-derived shorelines (SDS) have the potential to help researchers answer critical coastal science questions and support work to predict coastal change by filling in the spatial and temporal gaps present in current field-based and remote-sensing data collection methods. The U.S. Geological Survey conducted comparison analyses of traditionally sourced shorelines and SDS in diverse coastal landscapes to determine how SDS could be used in ongoing and future work across varied coastal environments and provided some initial findings that could be used for implementation. Using CoastSeg, a browser-based program for SDS detection and mapping, SDS for the period 1984–2023 for multiple locations across the United States were compared to shoreline positions from traditionally sourced shoreline data. In this report, the authors present these comparisons alongside lessons learned and challenges encountered when building SDS workflows in different coastal locations. Results show that individual SDS have larger uncertainty and yet produced similar linear trends to sparser, traditionally sourced shoreline data; because SDS methods provide orders of magnitude more data than traditional shoreline-detection methods, they can be used to evaluate shoreline behaviors. Refining average scalar slopes used in tidal corrections did not result in substantial decreases in uncertainty. Using lessons from this work to outline needs for regional implementation, initial setup time would be considerable, being on the order of weeks. However, once complete, shoreline detections and analyses are fast (on the order of minutes to hours) and achievable using a desktop computer.

Alaska, Florida, Massachusetts, Washington↗

USGS2013

Operational Group Sandy technical progress report

Hurricane Sandy made US landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on 29 October 2012, causing 72 direct deaths, displacing thousands of individuals from damaged or destroyed dwellings, and leaving over 8.5 million homes without power across the northeast and mid-Atlantic. To coordinate federal rebuilding activities in the affected region, the President established the cabinet-level Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force (Task Force). The Task Force was charged with identifying opportunities for achieving rebuilding success while supporting economic vitality, improving public health and safety, protecting and enhancing natural and manmade infrastructure, bolstering resilience, and ensuring appropriate accountability. The Department of the Interior (DOI) Strategic Sciences Group (SSG) was established in 2012 to provide interdisciplinary science-based scenarios for environmental crises affecting Departmental resources. In January 2013, the Secretary of the Interior directed the SSG to support the Department’s participation in the Task Force. The SSG assembled a team of experts from government, academia, and non-governmental organizations – Operational Group Sandy (OGS) – to develop scenarios for the impacts of Hurricane Sandy and future major storms on coastal communities and urban systems in the New York/New Jersey region. This report documents results from the March 2013 deployment of the OGS. It includes background information on Hurricane Sandy and the federal response; the OGS methodology; scenarios for Hurricane Sandy’s impact on coastal communities and urban ecosystems; potential interventions to improve regional resilience to future major storms; a discussion of scenario results; and lessons learned about the OGS process.

Report↗

USGS2021

Habitat suitability index model improvements

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models were developed for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan to evaluate the potential effects of coastal restoration and protection projects on habitat for key coastal fish, shellfish, and wildlife species. These species included: eastern oyster, brown shrimp, white shrimp, blue crab, crayfish, gulf menhaden, spotted seatrout, largemouth bass, American alligator, gadwall, mottled duck, brown pelican, seaside sparrow, and bald eagle. Most of these species were included in the 2017 Coastal Master Plan analyses, and the HSI models from that effort were refined and improved following the recommendations described in the technical memorandum: 2023 Coastal Master Plan Habitat Suitability Index Model Improvement Recommendations (Sable et al., 2019). In addition to model improvements, HSI models were created for seaside sparrow and bald eagle, both of which are new species for the master plan analyses. For the HSI models that are primarily literature-based, literature reviews were conducted for recent studies that could be used to improve the suitability index (SI) relationships that compose the models. As a result of this review, modifications were made to the salinity-related SIs of the oyster model including: expanding the time period used for salinity effects to spawning; adjusting the range of suitable annual average salinity to be more representative of Louisiana populations; and making oyster’s minimum salinity tolerance temperature dependent. In addition, a new SI was incorporated in the oyster HSI model that accounts for the effects of sediment deposition on oysters. The crayfish HSI model was improved by adjusting the time periods used for the SIs that describe the hydrology required for the crayfish life cycle, and the soil characteristics SI that was part of the 2017 crayfish model was removed because soil conditions do not appear to be limiting for crayfish burrow construction in coastal Louisiana. The other literature-based HSI models from the 2017 Coastal Master Plan, i.e., American alligator, gadwall, mottled duck, and brown pelican, were unchanged, with the exception of a small adjustment made to the suitability of forested wetlands for gadwall. Lastly, a literature-based HSI model was created for seaside sparrow that consists of SIs related to vegetated habitat type, marsh vegetation coverage, and marsh elevation. Statistical-based HSI models were developed for brown shrimp (both small and large juvenile stages), white shrimp (small and large juvenile stages), blue crab (juvenile stage), gulf menhaden (juvenile and adult stages), spotted seatrout (juvenile and adult stages), largemouth bass, and bald eagle. The bald eagle HSI model was developed from a bald eagle nest probability of occurrence model that related nest occurrence from survey data with land cover type. The resulting model showed that combinations of forested wetlands, flotant marsh, and open water habitats were most suitable for nesting bald eagles. The 2023 fish, shrimp, and blue crab HSI models were developed using new approaches for the formulation of the water quality and structural habitat SIs that compose the models. For the 2017 models, the water quality SI was derived using only generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to estimate the relationship between salinity, water temperature, and species’ catch. For the 2023 models, however, multiple GLMMs and generalized additive models (GAMMs) were created for each species or life stage. These alternative models were compared and a single model that performed well statistically and was ecologically reasonable was selected for the species’ water quality SI. The structural habitat SI was developed using a meta-analysis of published literature to estimate the relative importance of various estuarine habitats to the fish and shellfish species. The results of this analysis were then used to modify the 2017 structural habitat SI relationship to account for the added habitat value of submerged aquatic vegetation and oyster reefs, which are also important habitats for juvenile fish and shellfish. Similar to the 2017 fish, shrimp, and blue crab models, the water quality and structural habitat SIs were then combined to create the 2023 HSI models. The 2023 Coastal Master Plan HSI models were integrated with the Integrated Compartment Model (and are referred to as ICM-HSIs) and tested using environmental output from the 2017 Coastal Master Plan Future Without Action scenario. The tests showed that, in general, the models produced reasonable representations of species’ habitat distribution. Furthermore, the improvements made to the oyster, crayfish, fish, shrimp, and blue crab HSI models generally yielded more realistic results compared to the 2017 HSI models.

Report↗

USGS2018

Do we know how much fluvial sediment reaches the sea? Decreased river monitoring of U.S. coastal rivers

Given the present and future changing climate and human changes to land use and river control, river sediment fluxes to coastal systems are changing and will continue to change in the future. To delineate these changes and their effects, it is increasingly important to document the fluxes of river-borne sediment discharged to the sea. Unfortunately, broad-scale river sediment monitoring programs established more than 50 years ago in the U.S. have diminished substantially and now focus principally on the largest rivers and estuaries. Unless addressed, these data gaps will provide significant challenges in addressing fundamental scientific and management questions about the effects of climate change and sea-level rise in our estuaries and on our coasts.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2017

The Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) network of the U.S. Geological Survey—Past and future implementation of storm-response monitoring, data collection, and data delivery

After Hurricane Sandy made landfall along the northeastern Atlantic coast of the United States on October 29, 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) carried out scientific investigations to assist with protecting coastal communities and resources from future flooding. The work included development and implementation of the Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) network consisting of more than 900 monitoring stations. The SWaTH network was designed to greatly improve the collection and timely dissemination of information related to storm surge and coastal flooding. The network provides a significant enhancement to USGS data-collection capabilities in the region impacted by Hurricane Sandy and represents a new strategy for observing and monitoring coastal storms, which should result in improved understanding, prediction, and warning of storm-surge impacts and lead to more resilient coastal communities. As innovative as it is, SWaTH evolved from previous USGS efforts to collect storm-surge data needed by others to improve storm-surge modeling, warning, and mitigation. This report discusses the development and implementation of the SWaTH network, and some of the regional stories associated with the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, as well as some previous events that informed the SWaTH development effort. Additional discussions on the mechanics of inundation and how the USGS is working with partners to help protect coastal communities from future storm impacts are also included.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse↗

USGS2010

Importance of coastal change variables in determining vulnerability to sea- and lake-level change

In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey began conducting scientific assessments of coastal vulnerability to potential future sea- and lake-level changes in 22 National Park Service sea- and lakeshore units. Coastal park units chosen for the assessment included a variety of geological and physical settings along the U.S. Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of Alaska, Caribbean, and Great Lakes shorelines. This research is motivated by the need to understand and anticipate coastal changes caused by accelerating sea-level rise, as well as lake-level changes caused by climate change, over the next century. The goal of these assessments is to provide information that can be used to make long-term (decade to century) management decisions. Here we analyze the results of coastal vulnerability assessments for several coastal national park units. Index-based assessments quantify the likelihood that physical changes may occur based on analysis of the following variables: tidal range, ice cover, wave height, coastal slope, historical shoreline change rate, geomorphology, and historical rate of relative sea- or lake-level change. This approach seeks to combine a coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, and it provides a measure of the system's potential vulnerability to the effects of sea- or lake-level change. Assessments for 22 park units are combined to evaluate relationships among the variables used to derive the index. Results indicate that Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico parks have the highest vulnerability rankings relative to other park regions. A principal component analysis reveals that 99% of the index variability can be explained by four variables: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, water-level change rate, and mean significant wave height. Tidal range, ice cover, and historical shoreline change are not as important when the index is evaluated at large spatial scales (thousands of kilometers). ?? 2010 Coastal Education and Research Foundation.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2014

The future of nearshore processes research

The nearshore is the transition region between land and the continental shelf including (from onshore to offshore) coastal plains, wetlands, estuaries, coastal cliffs, dunes, beaches, surf zones (regions of wave breaking), and the inner shelf (Figure ES-1). Nearshore regions are vital to the national economy, security, commerce, and recreation. The nearshore is dynamically evolving, is often densely populated, and is under increasing threat from sea level rise, long-term erosion, extreme storms, and anthropogenic influences. Worldwide, almost one billion people live at elevations within 10 m of present sea level. Long-term erosion threatens communities, infrastructure, ecosystems, and habitat. Extreme storms can cause billions of dollars of damage. Degraded water quality impacts ecosystem and human health. Nearshore processes, the complex interactions between water, sediment, biota, and humans, must be understood and predicted to manage this often highly developed yet vulnerable nearshore environment. Over the past three decades, the understanding of nearshore processes has improved. However, societal needs are growing with increased coastal urbanization and threats of future climate change, and significant scientific challenges remain. To address these challenges, members of academia, industry, and federal agencies (USGS, USACE, NPS, NOAA, FEMA, ONR) met at the “The Past and Future of Nearshore Processes Research: Reflections on the Sallenger Years and a New Vision for the Future” workshop to develop a nearshore processes research vision where societal needs and science challenges intersect. The resulting vision is comprised of three broad research themes: Long-term coastal evolution due to natural and anthropogenic processes: As global climate change alters the rates of sea level rise and potentially storm patterns and coastal urbanization increases over the coming decades, an understanding of coastal evolution is critical. Improved knowledge of long-term morphological, ecological, and societal processes and their interactions will result in an improved ability to simulate coastal change. This will enable proactive solutions for resilient coasts and better guidance for reducing coastal vulnerability. Extreme Events: Flooding, erosion, and the subsequent recovery: Hurricane Sandy caused flooding and erosion along hundreds of miles of shoreline, flooded New York City, and impacted communities and infrastructure. Overall U.S. coastal extreme event related economic losses have increased substantially. Furthermore, climate change may cause an increase in coastal extreme events and rising sea levels could increase the occurrence of extreme events. Addressing this research theme will result in an improved understanding of the physical processes during extreme events, leading to improved models of flooding, erosion, and recovery. The resulting societal benefit will be more resilient coastal communities. The physical, biological and chemical processes impacting human and ecosystem health: Nearshore regions are used for recreation, tourism, and human habitation, and provide habitat and valuable ecosystem services. These areas must be sustained for future generations, however overall coastal water quality is declining due to microbial pathogens, fertilizers, pesticides, and heavy metal contamination, threatening ecosystem and human health. To ensure sustainable nearshore regions, predictive real-time water- and sediment-based based pollutant modeling capabilities must be developed, which requires expanding our knowledge of the physics, chemistry, and biology of the nearshore. The resulting societal benefits will include better beach safety, healthier ecosystems, and improved mitigation and regulatory policies. The scientists and engineers of the U.S. nearshore community are poised to make significant progress on these research themes, which have significant societal impact. The U.S. nearshore community, including academic, government, and industry colleagues, recommends multi-agency investment into a coordinated development of observational and modeling research infrastructure to address these themes, as discussed in the whitepaper. The observational infrastructure should include development of new sensors and methods, focused observational programs, and expanded nearshore observing systems. The modeling infrastructure should include improved process representation, better model coupling, incorporation of data assimilation techniques, and testing of real-time models. The observations will provide test beds to compare and improve models.

Report↗

USGS2023

Long-term trends in Arctic riverine chemistry signal multi-faceted northern change

Rivers integrate processes occurring throughout their watersheds and are therefore sentinels of change across broad spatial scales. River chemistry also regulates ecosystem function across Earth’s land–ocean continuum, exerting control from the micro- (for example, local food web) to the macro- (for example, global carbon cycle) scale. In the rapidly warming Arctic, a wide range of processes—from permafrost thaw to biological uptake and transformation—might reasonably alter river water chemistry. Here we use data from major rivers that collectively drain two-thirds of the Arctic Ocean watershed to assess widespread change in biogeochemical function within the pan-Arctic basin from 2003 to 2019. While the oceanward flux of alkalinity and associated ions increased markedly over this time frame, nitrate and other inorganic nutrient fluxes declined. Fluxes of dissolved organic carbon showed no overall trend. This divergence in response indicates the perturbation of multiple processes on land, with implications for biogeochemical cycling in the coastal ocean. We anticipate that these findings will facilitate refinement of conceptual and numerical models of current and future functioning of Arctic coastal ecosystems and spur research on scale-dependent change across the river-integrated Arctic domain.

Arctic↗

USGS2025

Assessing the effect of coral reef restoration location on coastal flood hazard along the San Juan Coastline, Puerto Rico

Coastal resilience has become a pressing global issue due to the growing vulnerability of coastlines to the effects of climate change. Nature-based solutions have emerged as a promising approach to coastal protection to not only enhance coastal resilience, but also restore critical ecosystems. Coral reef restoration has the potential to provide ecosystem services benefits; however, there are still key uncertainties in linking restoration design to reductions in coastal flood hazard under current and future climate conditions. In this study, we applied one-dimensional and two-dimensional numerical coastal engineering models, calibrated and validated using field data, to evaluate the effectiveness of coral restoration scenarios on coastal waves, water levels, and flooding along the coast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, U.S.A. Model results indicate a small reduction in maximum water levels under the proposed restoration scenarios. This underscores the importance of these endeavors, not only for ecological preservation but also for preventing further reef deterioration. Such preservation is essential for mitigating the increased coastal risks anticipated in the future. Results from this study provide information to guide policymakers and coastal managers in making informed decisions on viable restoration project design options. By systematically evaluating how restoration location impacts coastal flood hazards, communities can develop and implement proactive strategies to mitigate flood-related risk. In addition, by restoring coral reefs, communities can contribute to environmental preservation while ensuring sustainable development and protection of coastal environments.

Puerto Rico, San Juan coastline↗

USGS2007

A simulation of groundwater discharge and nitrate delivery to chesapeake bay from the lowermost delmarva peninsula, USA

A groundwater model has been developed for the lowermost Delmarva Peninsula, USA, that simulates saltwater intrusion into local confined aquifers and nitrate delivery to the Chesapeake Bay from the surficial aquifer. A flow path and groundwater-age analysis was performed using the model to estimate the timing of nitrate delivery to the bay over the next several decades. The simulated mean and median residence times of groundwater in the lowermost peninsula are 30 and 15 years, respectively. Current and future nitrate concentrations in coastal groundwater discharge were simulated based on local well data that include nitrate concentrations and groundwater age. A simulated future-trends analysis indicates that nitrate that has been applied to agricultural regions over the last few decades will continue to discharge into the bay for several decades to come. This study highlights the importance of considering the groundwater lag time that affects the mean transport time from diffuse contamination sources.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~M w 9.1 (required today) to M w 8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone.

Alaska, California↗

USGS2024

Projected changes in mangrove distribution and vegetation structure under climate change in the southeastern United States

Aim The climate change-induced transition from grass-dominated marshes to woody-plant-dominated mangrove forests has the potential to impact the ecosystem goods and services provided by coastal wetlands. To better anticipate and prepare for these impacts, there is a need to advance understanding of future changes in mangrove distribution and coastal wetland vegetation structural properties due to warming winters. Location Southeastern United States. Time Period Recent (1981–2010) and future (2071–2100). Major Taxa Studied Coastal wetland vegetation. Methods We estimated changes in mangrove distribution and coastal wetland vegetation structure using known climate-ecological relationships, recent climate data for the period 1981–2010, and future projected climate data for the period 2071–2100. We quantified potential changes in mangrove presence, mangrove relative abundance, coastal wetland vegetation height, and coastal wetland vegetation aboveground biomass under two Shared Socio-Economic Pathway scenarios (SSPs; SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), which correspond to intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, respectively. Results Our analyses indicate that mangrove presence and relative abundance will dramatically increase in the northern Gulf of Mexico and the southeast Atlantic coast of the United States, particularly under the high emissions scenario. Because of the higher stature of mangroves relative to salt marsh vegetation, this expansion will cause a transformative change in coastal wetland vegetation height and aboveground biomass in many areas. However, along the arid southern Texas coast, low precipitation and high salinities are expected to constrain mangrove expansion and growth. Main Conclusions Our results show where and to what extent climate change, in the form of winter temperature warming, is projected to enable the transition from shorter, grass-dominated salt marshes to taller, woody plant-dominated mangrove forests in the southeastern United States, with consequent impacts on ecosystem goods and services.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2024

Scalable, data-assimilated models predict large-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise

Coastal change is a complex combination of multi-scale processes (e.g., wave-driven cross-shore and longshore transport; dune, bluff, and cliff erosion; overwash; fluvial and inlet sediment supply; and sea-level-driven recession). Historical sea-level-driven coastal recession on open ocean coasts is often outpaced by wave-driven change. However, future sea-level-driven coastal recession is expected to increase significantly in tandem with accelerating rates of global sea-level rise. Few models of coastal sediment transport can resolve the multitude of coastal-change processes at a given beach, and fewer still are computationally efficient enough to achieve large-scale, long-term simulations, while accounting for historical behavior and uncertainties in future climate. Here, we show that a scalable, data-assimilated shoreline-change model can achieve realistic simulations of long-term coastal change and uncertainty across large coastal regions. As part of the modeling case study of the U.S. South Atlantic Coast (Miami, Florida to Delaware Bay) presented here, we apply historical, satellite-derived observations of shoreline position combined with daily hindcasted and projected wave and sea-level conditions to estimate long-term coastal change by 2100. We find that 63 to 94% of the shorelines on the U.S. South Atlantic Coast are projected to retreat past the present-day extent of sandy beach under 1.0 to 2.0 m of sea-level rise, respectively, without large-scale interventions.

North Carolina↗

USGS2014

A global assessment of the conservation status of the American Oystercatcher Haematopus palliatus

The American Oystercatcher Haematopus palliatus is the most widely distributed of the four oystercatcher species in the Western Hemisphere. Its range covers almost the entire Atlantic Coast from northeastern United States to southern Argentina; on the Pacific Coast it is found from northern Mexico to central Chile. This assessment covers the entire range of the species, and is not intended to serve as a substitute or update for conservation plans that cover the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast populations. Readers are advised to refer to those plans, available at www.whsrn.org, for more detailed information about U.S. populations. The subspecific taxonomy of H. palliatus is far from clear, but five races are recognized in this assessment, primarily to facilitate reference to specific populations (Fig. 1). These are nominate H. p. palliatus (coasts of eastern and southern United States; eastern Mexico; Pacific and Caribbean coasts of Central America; the Caribbean; and northern and eastern South America); H. p. frazari (Gulf of California and western Mexico); H. p. pitanay (coast of western South America); H. p. durnfordi (coast of southeast South America) and H. p. galapagensis (Galapagos Islands). The Galapagos race may deserve species status. Based on a review of existing population estimates and an extrapolation of data from quantitative surveys throughout its range, revised estimates are given for the populations of all five subspecies, and a total population of about 43,000 individuals. The nominate race is the most abundant with an estimated population size of about 20,000 individuals, while the least abundant is H. p. galapagensis , with just 300 individuals estimated. Biogeographic population estimates were used to determine 1% threshold levels and identify sites of regional and global conservation importance. A total of 20 sites have been identified for H. p. palliatus , 5 for H. p. frazari , 10 for H. p. pitanay and 10 for H. p. durnfordi . No key sites were identified for H. p. galapagensis as it is found in low density scattered throughout the islands. Of these 45 sites, 14 have counts that surpass the 1% level of the global population, and are thus of global conservation significance for the species. Because the species is a dispersed breeder, the 1% threshold is of limited value in identifying key breeding sites. For the time being, these have been defined as sites holding 20 or more breeding pairs; 17 such sites have been identified, with all but four in the United States. It is hoped that a more rigorous approach for identifying key breeding sites can be developed in the future. As an obligate coastal species, American Oystercatcher is at risk from widespread habitat loss due to coastal development, and recreational activities that lead to nest disturbance and increased predation. This is exacerbated by the species’ low population size and low reproductive success. Climate change also poses a significant future threat, especially with regard to sea-level rise. To address these threats, conservation actions are proposed that focus on increased legal protection for the species and on the conservation of key sites and important habitats. Conservation could include implementing beneficial management practices, such as restoration of nest and roost sites, controlling predation, and reducing disturbance. Education and outreach programs are needed throughout the species’ range, especially for beach users and urban planners. Training programs will be necessary to ensure successful implementation of many of the priority conservation actions. Finally, a key first step in conserving this species across its range is the creation of a H. palliatus Working Group. Modelled after the U.S. American Oystercatcher Working Group this organization could unite researchers, conservationists, and educators from across the hemisphere to foster coordinated research, conservation action, and monitoring as outlined in this assessment.

International Wader Studies↗