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Assessment of metals exposure and sub-lethal effects in voles and small birds captured near the DeLong Mountain Regional Transportation System Road, Cape Krusenstern National Monument, Alaska, 2006

Voles (n=6) and small ground-nesting birds (n=12) were live-captured near the DeLong Mountain Regional Transportation System haul road in Cape Krusenstern National Monument in northwest Alaska in 2006 to assess metals exposure and sub-lethal biological effects. Similar numbers of animals were captured from a reference site in southern Cape Krusenstern National Monument for comparison. Histopathological examination of selected organs, blood analysis, and analysis for aluminum, barium, cadmium, lead, and zinc concentrations in liver and blood samples were performed. Voles and small birds captured from near the haul road had about 20 times greater blood and liver lead concentrations and about 3 times greater cadmium concentrations when compared to those from the reference site. Barium and zinc tissue concentrations of animals collected from different sites were not remarkably different, and aluminum concentrations were below the reporting limits in most samples. There was no clear evidence of serious sub-lethal biological effects such as lesions in internal organs or DNA damage in blood in any of the animals. Accordingly, blood and liver lead concentrations in animals captured near the haul road generally were less than tissue concentration thresholds associated with serious biological effects reported from other studies; however, subtle effects resulting from lead exposure, such as the suppression of the activity of certain enzymes, cannot be ruled out for those animals nearest the haul road. Notably, liver lead concentrations of voles and small birds at the reference location were considerably less than those previously reported for similar animals at reference sites in other parts of the United States, Canada, and Europe. Results from this reconnaissance-level study indicate that voles and small birds inhabiting this area are not suffering serious biological effects as a result of metals exposure; however, continued monitoring of lead and other metals is recommended because of uncertainties noted and because biological effects thresholds might be approached if exposure levels were to increase.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Network global navigation satellite system survey to harmonize water-surface elevation data for the Rainy River Basin

Continuously recording water-level streamgages in Rainy Lake and Namakan Reservoir are used to regulate water levels according to rule curves established in 2000 by the International Joint Commission; however, water levels at streamgages were referenced to a variety of vertical datums, confounding efforts to model the flow of water through the system, regulate water levels during periods of high inflow, and evaluate the effectiveness of the rule curves. In October 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Resources Canada, International Joint Commission, and National Park Service began a joint field study with the goal of obtaining precise elevations referenced to a uniform vertical datum for all reference marks used to set water levels at streamgages throughout Rainy Lake and Namakan Reservoir. This report was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Natural Resources Canada, International Joint Commission, and National Park Service. Three field crews deployed Global Navigation Satellite System receivers statically over 16 reference marks colocated with active and discontinued water-level streamgages throughout Rainy River, Rainy Lake, Namakan Reservoir, and select tributaries of Rainy Lake and Namakan Reservoir. A Global Navigation Satellite System receiver also was deployed statically over a National Geodetic Survey cooperative base network control station for use as a quality-control reference mark. Satellite data were collected simultaneously during a 5-day period and processed independently by the U.S. Geological Survey and Natural Resources Canada to obtain accurate positioning and elevations for the 17 surveyed reference marks. Processed satellite data were used to convert published water levels to elevations above sea level referenced to the Canadian Geodetic Vertical Datum of 2013 in order to compare water-surface elevations referenced to a uniform vertical datum throughout the study area. In this report, an “offset” refers to the correction applied to published data from a particular streamgage to produce elevation data referenced to a specified vertical datum. Offsets were applied to water-level data from surveyed streamgages to further evaluate the accuracy and utility of updated reference mark elevations presented in this report. Daily mean water levels from active streamgages surveyed in this study were converted to water-surface elevations referenced to the Canadian Geodetic Vertical Datum of 2013. Graphical comparisons of water-surface elevations for streamgages in Namakan Reservoir, Rainy Lake, and selected rivers are presented (referencing the Canadian Geodetic Vertical Datum of 2013). Offsets presented in this report can be used in the evaluation of rule curves and in flood damage curves that fully assess the benefits of one regulation approach over another. In addition, offsets may be used to calibrate hydraulic models developed for four narrows that connect lakes of Namakan Reservoir, refine digital elevation models, and support modeling studies designed to assess the effects of rule curves on aquatic vegetation, benthic invertebrates, northern pike, and walleye.

Minnesota, Ontario↗

Groundwater recharge estimates for Maine using a Soil-Water-Balance model—25-year average, range, and uncertainty, 1991 to 2015

To address the lack of information on the spatial and temporal variability of recharge to groundwater systems in Maine, a study was initiated in cooperation with the Maine Geological Survey to use the U.S. Geological Survey Soil-Water-Balance model to evaluate annual average potential recharge across the State over a 25-year period from 1991 to 2015. The Maine Soil-Water-Balance model was calibrated using annual observations of recharge, runoff, and evapotranspiration for 32 calibration watersheds in the State during 2001–12 (902 total observations). Observations of recharge, runoff, and evapotranspiration were developed for each watershed to reduce the possibility of nonunique combinations of model parameters during the calibration. The Maine Soil-Water-Balance model was run using an optional evapotranspiration calculation method that provides more control for calibration than the standard method. The model was calibrated using the Parameter ESTimation software suite. The overall mean model error (average of all annual residuals for recharge, runoff, and precipitation) was 0.39 inch. The mean of the absolute value of the residuals, or the mean absolute error, was 2.32 inches. The root mean squared error for the calibrated model overall was 3.14 inches. Statistical tests indicated that the model residuals are normally distributed. To determine the potential uncertainty in the median annual potential recharge that results from uncertainty in the parameters as they relate to information contained in the observations, 300 alternate model realizations were run, and the standard deviation of the median potential recharge value at every pixel was calculated. Simulated 25-year median potential recharge across the State is widely variable; this variability closely follows patterns of precipitation, with additional variability contributed by the patchwork nature of the combinations of land-use class and hydrologic soil group inputs, and distribution of available water capacity in the soil across the State. Overall, the 25-year median annual potential recharge across the State is 7.5 inches, ranging from a low of about 5 inches to over 30 inches. The statewide range in the 25-year minimum values is from just over 2 inches to just over 20 inches. The statewide range in the 25-year maximum potential recharge is between 15 and 48 inches per year. The model areas with the highest simulated median potential recharge include areas underlain by type A soils (sandy and well drained), particularly those that also have land uses with low or little vegetation (blueberry barrens, developed, open space, scrub/shrub, and cropland, for example). The potential recharge values for these areas are similar to previously published values for comparable soil types. The 25-year average potential recharge grids were compared to recharge evaluated through groundwater-flow models or other methods in four hydrogeologic settings at six study areas in the State. A key factor in the ability of the Soil-Water-Balance model to reproduce the earlier study results was whether the available water-capacity data were an appropriate match for the hydrologic soil groups. The Maine Soil-Water-Balance model does a good job in representing an accurate potential recharge under circumstances where the surficial mapped soils extend below the surface to the water-table aquifer and where the available water-capacity data are in an appropriate range for the hydrologic soil group. One hydrogeologic setting that was challenging for the model was where a silt and clay layer was below a shallow soil unit that did not have available water-capacity data that were appropriate for the hydrologic soil group. In these cases, typically the available water-capacity data were very low, not accounting for the impedance of water flow provided by the underlying soil. The model also does not simulate well areas where bedrock surfaces are above the water table but below the plant rooting zone. The data products accompanying this report are intended to be used to provide first-cut estimates of recharge for geographic areas no smaller than the smallest watersheds used in the calibration of the model—or about 1.5 square miles. It is recommended that the grids are used to calculate an area-wide average potential recharge for any given area of study, and an uncertainty around the mean should be calculated from the standard deviation grid at the same time.

Maine↗

The Role of Fuel Breaks in the Invasion of Nonnative Plants

Executive Summary Fuel reduction projects have become an increasingly important component of state and federal fuels management programs. However, an unintended result of some pre-fire fuel manipulation projects may be the introduction of nonnative invasive plants. The establishment of nonnative plants within fuel breaks is a serious concern because the presence of invasive species in areas treated to reduce fuels could make adjacent wildland areas more susceptible to invasion, particularly following widespread disturbances such as fires. This report presents the results of a research project investigating the relationship between fuel reduction treatments and the invasion of nonnative plants. Throughout the rest of this document, we will collectively refer to these treatments as fuel breaks, although we sampled a range of fuel breaks described variously as fuel breaks, shaded fuel breaks, defensible fuel reduction zones, defensible fuel profile zones, fuel reduction projects, fuel management zones, wildfire protection zones, and community protection zones.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Analysis of the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Discharges for the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges are necessary for the reliable flood-hazard mapping in the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. The Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and Navajo Nation requested that the U.S. Geological Survey update estimates of peak discharge magnitude for gaging stations in the region and update regional equations for estimation of peak discharge and frequency at ungaged sites. Equations were developed for estimating the magnitude of peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years at ungaged sites using data collected through 1999 at 146 gaging stations, an additional 13 years of peak-discharge data since a 1997 investigation, which used gaging-station data through 1986. The equations for estimation of peak discharges at ungaged sites were developed for flood regions 8, 11, high elevation, and 6 and are delineated on the basis of the hydrologic codes from the 1997 investigation. Peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were determined at gaging stations by fitting observed data to a log-Pearson Type III distribution with adjustments for a low-discharge threshold and a zero skew coefficient. A low-discharge threshold was applied to frequency analysis of 82 of the 146 gaging stations. This application provides an improved fit of the log-Pearson Type III frequency distribution. Use of the low-discharge threshold generally eliminated the peak discharge having a recurrence interval of less than 1.4 years in the probability-density function. Within each region, logarithms of the peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were related to logarithms of basin and climatic characteristics using stepwise ordinary least-squares regression techniques for exploratory data analysis. Generalized least-squares regression techniques, an improved regression procedure that accounts for time and spatial sampling errors, then was applied to the same data used in the ordinary least-squares regression analyses. The average standard error of prediction for a peak discharge have a recurrence interval of 100-years for region 8 was 53 percent (average) for the 100-year flood. The average standard of prediction, which includes average sampling error and average standard error of regression, ranged from 45 to 83 percent for the 100-year flood. Estimated standard error of prediction for a hybrid method for region 11 was large in the 1997 investigation. No distinction of floods produced from a high-elevation region was presented in the 1997 investigation. Overall, the equations based on generalized least-squares regression techniques are considered to be more reliable than those in the 1997 report because of the increased length of record and improved GIS method. Techniques for transferring flood-frequency relations to ungaged sites on the same stream can be estimated at an ungaged site by a direct application of the regional regression equation or at an ungaged site on a stream that has a gaging station upstream or downstream by using the drainage-area ratio and the drainage-area exponent from the regional regression equation of the respective region.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Statistical analysis of major ion and trace element geochemistry of water, 1986-2006, at seven wells transecting the freshwater/saline-water interface of the Edwards aquifer, San Antonio, Texas

This report by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System, describes the results of a statistical analysis of major ion and trace element geochemistry of water at seven wells transecting the freshwater/saline-water interface of the Edwards aquifer in San Antonio, Texas, either over time or in response to variations in hydrologic conditions. The data used in this report were collected during 1986–2006. The seven monitoring wells are screened at different depths in the aquifer at three sites that form a generally north-to-south transect. The three wells of the southern site and the deeper of the two middle-site wells are open to the freshwater/saline-water transition zone, which contains saline water. The shallower well of the middle site and the two wells of the northern site are open to the freshwater zone. Mean specific conductance (SC) values were greater at transition-zone wells than at freshwater-zone wells, but SC did not vary systematically with depth. Concentrations of all major ions except bicarbonate were greater at transition-zone wells than at freshwater-zone wells, but concentrations tended to be more variable at freshwater-zone wells. Mean molar ratios of magnesium:calcium, sulfate:chloride, and sodium:chloride were similar at transition-zone wells and freshwater-zone wells. Concentrations of trace elements for many water samples at the seven transect wells were below the laboratory analytical reporting level. Detections of trace elements were more frequent at transition-zone wells, and mean concentrations of cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, and silver were elevated at transition-zone wells relative to freshwater-zone wells. All strong correlations between SC and major ions were positive, and in general there were more and stronger correlations between SC and major ions in the water from the freshwater-zone wells than from the transition-zone wells. Except for the shallowest transition-zone well, the transition-zone wells had relatively few strong correlations overall. The lack of a strong correlation indicates that much of the variability in the major ion concentrations at these wells might be a result of analytical variability caused by the multiple laboratory analytical methods used. In most cases, strong correlations between concentrations of trace elements were positive, and transition-zone wells and freshwater-zone wells had water with a similar number of significant correlations. Principal components analysis indicates dilution of ground water by low-ionic-strength meteoric water at the three freshwater-zone wells and at the shallowest transition-zone well. At the two deeper transition-zone wells at the southern site, principal components analysis indicates that there is no systematic variation in major ion concentrations. At three transition-zone wells, there was a general trend toward less salinity over the 21-year period of sampling. Trends in SC at the freshwater-zone wells were less consistent. There is no systematic change in the direction of trend in SC by water type (saline or fresh), between sites, or with depth. In general, trends in major ion concentrations corresponded to those in SC. For each trace element over the 21-year sampling period, there was either no trend or a downward trend. Relations between SC, major ions, and major ion molar ratios and hydrologic indicators (concurrent or prior time-averaged measures of water level and effective rainfall) were investigated. Correlations between geochemical variables and measures of water level in the freshwater-zone wells were much more frequent than correlations between geochemical variables and measures of water level in the transition-zone wells. There were correlations between SC and all measures of water level at the two freshwater-zone wells at the northern site, but there were no correlations between SC and any measures of water level at any transition-zone wells. SC was correlated with effective rainfall at all freshwater-zone wells and at one transition-zone well. The statistical analyses taken together indicate that the geochemistry at the freshwater-zone wells is more variable than that at the transition-zone wells. The geochemical variability at the freshwater-zone wells might result from dilution of ground water by meteoric water. This is indicated by relatively constant major ion molar ratios; a preponderance of positive correlations between SC, major ions, and trace elements; and a principal components analysis in which the major ions are strongly loaded on the first principal component. Much of the variability at three of the four transition-zone wells might result from the use of different laboratory analytical methods or reporting procedures during the period of sampling. This is reflected by a lack of correlation between SC and major ion concentrations at the transition-zone wells and by a principal components analysis in which the variability is fairly evenly distributed across several principal components. The statistical analyses further indicate that, although the transition-zone wells are less well connected to surficial hydrologic conditions than the freshwater-zone wells, there is some connection but the response time is longer.

Texas↗

Sediment-hosted stratabound copper deposit model

This report contains a descriptive model of sediment-hosted stratabound copper (SSC) deposits that supersedes the model of Cox and others (2003). This model is for use in assessments of mineral resource potential. SSC deposits are the second most important sources of copper in the world behind porphyry copper deposits. Around 20 percent of the copper in the world is produced from this class of deposits. They are also the most important sources of cobalt in the world, and they are fourth among classes of ore deposits in production of silver. SSC deposits are the basis of the economies of three countries: Democratic Republic of Congo, Poland, and Zambia. This report provides a description of the key features of SSC deposits; it identifies their tectonic-sedimentary environments; it illustrates geochemical, geophysical, and geoenvironmental characteristics of SSC deposits; it reviews and evaluates hypotheses on how these deposits formed; it presents exploration and assessment guides; and it lists some gaps in our knowledge about the SSC deposits. A summary follows that provides overviews of many subjects concerning SSC deposits.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Critical analysis of world uranium resources

The U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA) joined with the U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to analyze the world uranium supply and demand balance. To evaluate short-term primary supply (0–15 years), the analysis focused on Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR), which are resources projected with a high degree of geologic assurance and considered to be economically feasible to mine. Such resources include uranium resources from mines currently in production as well as resources that are in the stages of feasibility or of being permitted. Sources of secondary supply for uranium, such as stockpiles and reprocessed fuel, were also examined. To evaluate long-term primary supply, estimates of uranium from unconventional and from undiscovered resources were analyzed. At 2010 rates of consumption, uranium resources identified in operating or developing mines would fuel the world nuclear fleet for about 30 years. However, projections currently predict an increase in uranium requirements tied to expansion of nuclear energy worldwide. Under a low-demand scenario, requirements through the period ending in 2035 are about 2.1 million tU. In the low demand case, uranium identified in existing and developing mines is adequate to supply requirements. However, whether or not these identified resources will be developed rapidly enough to provide an uninterrupted fuel supply to expanded nuclear facilities could not be determined. On the basis of a scenario of high demand through 2035, 2.6 million tU is required and identified resources in operating or developing mines is inadequate. Beyond 2035, when requirements could exceed resources in these developing properties, other sources will need to be developed from less well-assured resources, deposits not yet at the prefeasibility stage, resources that are currently subeconomic, secondary sources, undiscovered conventional resources, and unconventional uranium supplies. This report’s analysis of 141 mines that are operating or are being actively developed identifies 2.7 million tU of in-situ uranium resources worldwide, approximately 2.1 million tU recoverable after mining and milling losses were deducted. Sixty-four operating mines report a total of 1.4 million tU of in-situ RAR (about 1 million tU recoverable). Seventy-seven developing mines/production centers report 1.3 million tU in-situ Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR) (about 1.1 million tU recoverable), which have a reasonable chance of producing uranium within 5 years. Most of the production is projected to come from conventional underground or open pit mines as opposed to in-situ leach mines. Production capacity in operating mines is about 76,000 tU/yr, and in developing mines is estimated at greater than 52,000 tU/yr. Production capacity in operating mines should be considered a maximum as mines seldom produce up to licensed capacity due to operational difficulties. In 2010, worldwide mines operated at 70 percent of licensed capacity, and production has never exceeded 89 percent of capacity. The capacity in developing mines is not always reported. In this study 35 percent of developing mines did not report a target licensed capacity, so estimates of future capacity may be too low. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimate an additional 1.4 million tU economically recoverable resources, beyond that identified in operating or developing mines identified in this report. As well, 0.5 million tU in subeconomic resources, and 2.3 million tU in the geologically less certain inferred category are identified worldwide. These agencies estimate 2.2 million tU in secondary sources such as government and commercial stockpiles and re-enriched uranium tails. They also estimate that unconventional uranium supplies (uraniferous phosphate and black shale deposits) may contain up to 7.6 million tU. Although unconventional resources are currently subeconomic, the improvement of extraction techniques or the production of coproducts may make extraction of uranium from these types of deposits profitable. A large undiscovered resource base is reported by these agencies, however this class of resource should be considered speculative and will require intensive exploration programs to adequately define them as mineable. These resources may all contribute to uranium supply that would fuel the world nuclear fleet well beyond that calculated in this report. Production of resources in both operating and developing uranium mines is subject to uncertainties caused by technical, legal, regulatory, and financial challenges that combined to create long timelines between deposit discovery and mine production. This analysis indicates that mine development is proceeding too slowly to fully meet requirements for an expanded nuclear power reactor fleet in the near future (to 2035), and unless adequate secondary or unconventional resources can be identified, imbalances in supply and demand may occur.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Synthesis of data from high-frequency nutrient and associated biogeochemical monitoring for the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, northern California

Executive Summary This report is the second in a series of three reports that provide information about high-frequency (HF) nutrient and biogeochemical monitoring in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta of northern California (Delta). The purpose of this report is to synthesize the data available from a nutrient and water-quality HF (about every 15 minutes) monitoring network operated by the U.S. Geological Survey in the northern Delta. In this report, we describe the network and focus on the purpose of each station. We then present and discuss the available data, at various timescales—first at the monthly, seasonal, and inter-annual timescales, and second, for comparison, at the tidal and event timescales. As expected, we determined that there is substantial variability in nitrate-N concentrations at short timescales within hours, but also significant variability at longer timescales such as months or years. Resolving this variability is made possible by the HF data, with the largest variability caused by storms, tides, and diel biological processes. Given this large temporal variability, calculations of cumulative nutrient fluxes (for example, daily, monthly, or annual loads) is difficult without HF data. For example, in the Cache Slough, calculation of the annual load without the tidal variability resulted in a 30 percent underestimation of the true annual load value. We conclude that HF measurements are important for accurate determination of fluxes and loads in tidal environments, but, more importantly, provide important insights into processes and rates of nutrient cycling. This report, along with the other two reports of this series (Bergamaschi and others, 2017; Kraus, Bergamaschi, and others, 2017), was drafted in cooperation with the Delta Regional Monitoring Program to help scientists, managers, and planners understand how HF data improve our understanding of nutrient sources and sinks, drivers, and effects in the Delta. The first report in the series (Kraus, Bergamaschi, and others, 2017) provides an introduction to the reasons for and fundamental concepts behind using HF monitoring measurements, including a brief summary of nutrient status and trends in the Delta and an extensive literature review showing how and where other research and monitoring programs have used HF monitoring to improve our understanding of nutrient cycling. The report covers the various technologies available for HF nutrient monitoring and presents the different ways HF monitoring instrumentation may be used for fixed station and spatial assessments. Finally, it presents numerous examples of how HF measurements are currently (2017) being used in the Delta to examine how nutrients and nutrient cycling are related to aquatic habitat conditions. The third report in the series (Bergamaschi and others, 2017) provides the background, principles, and considerations for designing an HF nutrient-monitoring network for the Delta to address high-priority, nutrient-management questions. The report starts with discussion of the high‑priority management questions to be addressed, continues through discussion of the questions and considerations that place demands and constraints on network design, discusses the principles applicable to network design, and concludes with the presentation of three example nutrient-monitoring network designs for the Delta, proposed to address high-priority questions identified by the Delta Regional Monitoring Program (Delta Regional Monitoring Program Technical Advisory Committee, 2015).

California↗

Potential effects of energy development on environmental resources of the Williston Basin in Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota

About this volume The Williston Basin, which includes parts of Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota in the United States, has been a leading domestic oil and gas producing area. To better understand the potential effects of energy development on environmental resources in the Williston Basin, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, and in support of the needs identified by the Bakken Federal Executive Group (consisting of representatives from 13 Federal agencies and Tribal groups), began work to synthesize existing information on science topics to support management decisions related to energy development. This report is divided into four chapters (A–D). Chapter A provides an executive summary of the report and principal findings from chapters B–D. Chapter B provides a brief compilation of information regarding the history of energy development, physiography, climate, land use, demographics, and related studies in the Williston Basin. Chapter C synthesizes current information about water resources, identifies potential effects from energy development, and summarizes water resources research and information needs in the Williston Basin. Chapter D summarizes information about ecosystems, species of conservation concern, and potential effects to those species from energy development in the Williston Basin.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

Lateral and vertical channel movement and potential for bed-material movement on the Madison River downstream from Earthquake Lake, Montana

The 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake caused a massive landslide (Madison Slide) that dammed the Madison River and formed Earthquake Lake. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers excavated a spillway through the Madison Slide to permit outflow from Earthquake Lake. In June 1970, high streamflows on the Madison River severely eroded the spillway channel and damaged the roadway embankment along U.S. Highway 287 downstream from the Madison Slide. Investigations undertaken following the 1970 flood events concluded that substantial erosion through and downstream from the spillway could be expected for streamflows greater than 3,500 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s). Accordingly, the owners of Hebgen Dam, upstream from Earthquake Lake, have tried to manage releases from Hebgen Lake to prevent streamflows from exceeding 3,500 ft 3 /s measured at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gaging station 0638800 Madison River at Kirby Ranch, near Cameron, Montana. Management of flow releases from Hebgen Lake to avoid exceeding the threshold streamflow at USGS gaging station 06038800 is difficult, and has been questioned for two reasons. First, no road damage was reported downstream from the Earthquake Lake outlet in 1993, 1996, and 1997 when streamflows exceeded the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold. Second, the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold generally precludes releases of higher flows that could be beneficial to the blue-ribbon trout fishery downstream in the Madison River. In response to concerns about minimizing streamflow downstream from Earthquake Lake and the possible armoring of the spillway, the USGS, in cooperation with the Madison River Fisheries Technical Advisory Committee (MADTAC; Bureau of Land Management; Montana Department of Environmental Quality; Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks; PPL-Montana; U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service - Gallatin National Forest; and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service), conducted a study to determine movement of the Madison River channel downstream from Earthquake Lake and to investigate the potential for bed material movement along the same reach. The purpose of this report is to present information about the lateral and vertical movement of the Madison River from 1970 to 2006 for a 1-mile reach downstream from Earthquake Lake and for Raynolds Pass Bridge, and to provide an analysis of the potential for bed-material movement so that MADTAC can evaluate the applicability of the previously determined threshold streamflow for initiation of damaging erosion. As part of this study channel cross sections originally surveyed by the USGS in 1971 were resurveyed in 2006. Incremental channel-movement distances were determined by comparing the stream centerlines from 14 aerial photographs taken between 1970 and 2006. Depths of channel incision and aggregation were determined by comparing the 2006 and 1971 cross-section and water-surface data. Particle sizes of bed and bank materials were measured in 2006 and 2008 using the pebble-count method and sieve analyses. A one-dimensional hydraulic-flow model (HEC-RAS) was used to calculate mean boundary-shear stresses for various streamflows; these calculated boundary-shear stresses were compared to calculated critical-shear stresses for the bed materials to determine the potential for bed-material movement. A comparison of lateral channel movement distances with annual peak streamflows shows that streamflows higher than the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold were followed by lateral channel movement except from 1991 to 1992 and possibly from 1996 to 1997. However, it was not possible to discern whether the channel moved gradually or suddenly, or in response to one peak flow, to several peak flows, or to sustained flows. The channel moved between 2002 and 2005 even when streamflows were less than the threshold streamflow of 3,500 ft 3 /s. Comparisons of cross sections and aerial photographs show that the channel has moved laterally and incised and aggraded to varying degrees. The channel has developed meander bends and has incised as much as 5–12 feet (ft) through the upstream part of the Madison Slide (cross sections 1400–800). Near cross section 800, the stream has eroded into the steep right bank between the stream and the road where fill was mechanically placed after 1970. Channel movement also was noted downstream from the Madison Slide. Near Raynolds Pass Bridge, about 3 miles (mi) downstream from Earthquake Lake, elevations across the channel have changed by -1.4 ft to +1.9 ft, but these changes were local in nature and could represent a few rocks or depressions in the bed. Overall, it does not appear that the materials eroded from the Madison Slide are causing aggradation in the subreach near the Raynolds Pass Bridge. Comparisons of critical shear stresses to mean boundary-shear stresses indicate that the D50 particle sizes (median size) along the right side of the bed between cross sections 400 and 500 and along the right side of the bed between cross sections 1300 and 1400 could move at the threshold streamflow. In contrast, most of the D84 particle sizes at those two locations probably will not move at the threshold streamflow. This lack of movement for the larger particles at the threshold streamflow could lead to further armoring of the bed as the D50 and smaller-sized particles are removed from the bed and transported downstream. The Shields parameter values from 0.04 to 0.08 that were used to calculate critical shear stresses could be conservative for a high-gradient stream such as the Madison. A higher, less conservative, Shields parameter would result in higher critical shear stresses, meaning that higher streamflows would be required to move material than those reported herein. In addition, because materials in the channel thalweg are exposed to higher boundary-shear stresses than the materials along the sides of the channel, larger, more erosion-resistant materials likely exist in the deeper parts of the channel where high-flow depths and velocities prevented sediment sampling. Movement of these materials might require higher critical shear stresses than estimated in this report. Characterization of sediment sizes in the center of the stream and observation of bed-material movement for a range of streamflows could provide information to help refine the Shields parameter and critical-shear stress estimates for bed materials in the Madison River downstream from Earthquake Lake. Furthermore, resurveying cross sections and water-surface elevations more frequently (either annually or after high streamflows) could better define the relation between streamflow and lateral and vertical channel movement.

Montana↗

Estimated use of water in the Delaware River Basin in Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania, 2010

The Delaware River Basin (DRB) was selected as a Focus Area Study in 2011 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) as part of the USGS National Water Census. The National Water Census is a USGS research program that focuses on national water availability and use and then develops new water accounting tools and assesses water availability at both the regional and national scales. One of the water management needs that the DRB study addressed, and that was identified by stakeholder groups from the DRB, was to improve the integration of state water use and water-supply data and to provide the compiled water use information to basin users. This water use information was also used in the hydrologic modeling and ecological components of the study. Instream and offstream water use was calculated for 2010 for the DRB based on information received from Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania. Water withdrawal, interbasin transfers, return flow, and hydroelectric power generation release data were compiled for 11 categories by hydrologic subregion, basin, subbasin, and subwatershed. Data availability varied by state. Site-specific data were used whenever possible to calculate public supply, irrigation (golf courses, nurseries, sod farms, and crops), aquaculture, self-supplied industrial, commercial, mining, thermoelectric, and hydroelectric power withdrawals. Where site-specific data were not available, primarily for crop irrigation, livestock, and domestic use, various techniques were used to estimate water withdrawals. Total water withdrawals in the Delaware River Basin were calculated to be about 7,130 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in 2010. Calculations of withdrawals by source indicate that freshwater withdrawals were about 4,130 Mgal/d (58 percent of the total) and the remaining 3,000 Mgal/d (42 percent) were from saline water. Total surface-water withdrawals were calculated to be 6,590 Mgal/d, or 92 percent of the total; about 54 percent (3,590 Mgal/d) of surface water withdrawn was freshwater. Total groundwater withdrawals were calculated to be 545 Mgal/d (8 percent of the total), all of which was freshwater. During 2010, calculated withdrawals by category, in decreasing order, were: thermoelectric power, 4,910 Mgal/d; public supply, 1,490 Mgal/d; self-supplied industrial, 350 Mgal/d; irrigation, 175 Mgal/d; self-supplied domestic, 117 Mgal/d; mining, 41.3 Mgal/d; aquaculture, 19.3 Mgal/d; livestock, 6.72 Mgal/d, and commercial, 5.89 Mgal/d. The amount of instream use for hydroelectric power generation purposes in 2010 was reported to be 273 Mgal/d for the Wallenpaupack Plant and 127 Mgal/d for the Mongaup River system. Total return flows in the DRB were 2,960 Mgal/d in 2010. Although municipal wastewater-treatment plants accounted for 539 (97 percent) of the return-flow sites, they accounted for about 70 percent of the total return flows in the DRB. There was limited information on return flows from thermoelectric power.

Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania↗

Quality of major ion and total dissolved solids data from groundwater sampled by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program, 1992–2010

Proper interpretation of water quality requires consideration of the effects that contamination bias and sampling variability might have on measured analyte concentrations. The effect of contamination bias and sampling variability on major ion and total dissolved solids data in water samples collected in 48 of the 52 National Water-Quality Assessment Program study units from 1992–2010 is discussed in this report. Contamination bias and sampling variability can occur as a result of sample collection, processing, shipping, and analysis. Contamination bias can adversely affect interpretation of measured concentrations in comparison to standards or criteria. Sampling variability can help determine the reproducibility of an individual measurement or whether two measurements are different. Field blank samples help determine the frequency and magnitude of contamination bias, and replicate samples help determine the sampling variability (error) of measured analyte concentrations. Quality control data were evaluated for calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, chloride, sulfate, fluoride, silica, and total dissolved solids. A 99-percent upper confidence limit is calculated from field blanks to assess the potential for contamination bias. For magnesium, potassium, chloride, sulfate, and fluoride, potential contamination in more than 95 percent of environmental samples is less than or equal to the common maximum reporting level. Contamination bias has little effect on measured concentrations greater than 4.74 mg/L (milligrams per liter) for calcium, 14.98 mg/L for silica, 4.9 mg/L for sodium, and 120 mg/L for total dissolved solids. Estimates of sampling variability are calculated for high and low ranges of concentration for major ions and total dissolved solids. Examples showing the calculation of confidence intervals and how to determine whether measured differences between two water samples are significant are presented.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Documentation of methods and inventory of irrigation data collected for the 2000 and 2005 U.S. Geological Survey Estimated use of water in the United States, comparison of USGS-compiled irrigation data to other sources, and recommendations for future compilations

Every five years since 1950, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Use Information Program (NWUIP) has compiled water-use information in the United States and published a circular report titled "Estimated use of water in the United States," which includes estimates of water withdrawals by State, sources of water withdrawals (groundwater or surface water), and water-use category (irrigation, public supply, industrial, thermoelectric, and so forth). This report discusses the impact of important considerations when estimating irrigated acreage and irrigation withdrawals, including estimates of conveyance loss, irrigation-system efficiencies, pasture, horticulture, golf courses, and double cropping. This report also documents the methods and data sources used by the USGS Water Science Centers (WSCs) for estimating irrigated acreage and irrigation withdrawals reported in the 2000 and 2005 USGS 5-year water-use compilations. For the 2005 USGS water-use compilation, the most common sources used by WSCs for obtaining irrigated crop acreage were the 2002 Census of Agriculture, 2003 Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey (FRIS), National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), universities, and local and State agencies. In this report, the authors compare USGS-compiled irrigated acreage to Census of Agriculture- and FRIS- reported irrigated acreage. Nationwide irrigated acreage increased from the 1997 to 2007 Census of Agriculture estimates by about 1 percent and from the 1998 to 2008 FRIS estimates by about 9 percent. Conversely, total irrigated acreage decreased from the 2000 to 2005 USGS water-use compilations by about 2 percent. An indirect method for estimating irrigation withdrawals is presented and results are compared to the 2005 USGS-reported irrigation withdrawals for selected States. This method is meant to demonstrate a way to check data reported or received from a third party, if metered data are unavailable. Of the 11 States where this method was applied, 8 States had estimated irrigation withdrawals that were within 15 percent of what was reported in the 2005 water-use compilation, and 3 States had estimated irrigation withdrawals that were more than 20 percent of what was reported in 2005. Recommendations for improving estimates of irrigated acreage and irrigation withdrawals also are presented in this report. Conveyance losses and irrigation-system efficiencies should be considered in order to achieve a more accurate representation of irrigation withdrawals. Better documentation of data sources and methods used can help lead to more consistent information in future irrigation water-use compilations. Finally, a summary of data sources and methods used to estimate irrigated acreage and irrigation withdrawals for the 2000 and 2005 compilations for each WSC is presented in appendix 1.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Software for analysis of chemical mixtures--composition, occurrence, distribution, and possible toxicity

The composition, occurrence, distribution, and possible toxicity of chemical mixtures in the environment are research concerns of the U.S. Geological Survey and others. The presence of specific chemical mixtures may serve as indicators of natural phenomena or human-caused events. Chemical mixtures may also have ecological, industrial, geochemical, or toxicological effects. Chemical-mixture occurrences vary by analyte composition and concentration. Four related computer programs have been developed by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program of the U.S. Geological Survey for research of chemical-mixture compositions, occurrences, distributions, and possible toxicities. The compositions and occurrences are identified for the user-supplied data, and therefore the resultant counts are constrained by the user’s choices for the selection of chemicals, reporting limits for the analytical methods, spatial coverage, and time span for the data supplied. The distribution of chemical mixtures may be spatial, temporal, and (or) related to some other variable, such as chemical usage. Possible toxicities optionally are estimated from user-supplied benchmark data. The software for the analysis of chemical mixtures described in this report is designed to work with chemical-analysis data files retrieved from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System but can also be used with appropriately formatted data from other sources. Installation and usage of the mixture software are documented. This mixture software was designed to function with minimal changes on a variety of computer-operating systems. To obtain the software described herein and other U.S. Geological Survey software, visit http://water.usgs.gov/software/.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

An introduction to high-frequency nutrient and biogeochemical monitoring for the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, northern California

Executive Summary This report is the first in a series of three reports that provide information about high-frequency (HF) nutrient and biogeochemical monitoring in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta of northern California (Delta). This first report provides an introduction to the reasons for and fundamental concepts behind collecting HF measurements, and describes the benefits associated with a real-time, continuous, HF, multi-parameter water quality monitoring station network that is co-located with flow stations. It then provides examples of how HF nutrient measurements have improved our understating of nutrient sources and cycling in aquatic systems worldwide, followed by specific examples from the Delta. These examples describe the ways in which HF instrumentation may be used for both fixed-station and spatial assessments. The overall intent of this document is to describe how HF measurements currently (2017) are being used in the Delta to examine the relationship between nutrient concentrations, nutrient cycling, and aquatic habitat conditions. The second report in the series (Downing and others, 2017) summarizes information about HF nutrient and associated biogeochemical monitoring in the northern Delta. The report synthesizes data available from the nutrient and water quality monitoring network currently operated by the U.S. Geological Survey in this ecologically important region of the Delta. In the report, we present and discuss the available data at various timescales—first, at the monthly, seasonal, and inter-annual timescales; and, second, for comparison, at the tidal and event (for example, storms, reservoir releases, phytoplankton blooms) timescales. As expected, we determined that there is substantial variability in nitrate concentrations at short timescales within hours, but also significant variability at longer timescales such as months or years. This multi-scale, high variability affects calculation of fluxes and loads, indicating that HF monitoring is necessary for understanding and assessing flux-based processes and outcomes in tidal environments, such as the Delta. The third report in the series (Bergamaschi and others, 2017) provides information about how to design HF nutrient and biogeochemical monitoring for assessment of nutrient inputs and dynamics in the Delta. The report provides background, principles, and considerations for designing an HF nutrient-monitoring network for the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta to address high-priority, nutrient-management questions. The report starts with high-priority management questions to be addressed, continues with questions and considerations that place demands and constraints on network design, discusses the principles applicable to network design, and concludes with the presentation of three example nutrient‑monitoring network designs for the Delta. For the three example networks, we assess how they would address high-priority questions identified by the Delta Regional Monitoring Program (Delta Regional Monitoring Program Technical Advisory Committee, 2015).

California↗

An evaluation of methods for computing annual water-quality loads

The U.S. Geological Survey publishes information on the mass, or load, of water-quality constituents transported through rivers and streams sampled as part of the operation of the National Water Quality Network (NWQN). This study evaluates methods for computing annual water-quality loads, specifically with respect to procedures currently (2019) used at sites in the NWQN. Near-daily datasets of chloride, total nitrogen, nitrate plus nitrite, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment were subset to determine the accuracy of various load-estimation methods, including linear interpolation, ratio estimators, and linear and weighted-regression methods. Water-quality loads are computed under different sampling strategies and at multiple sampling sites to provide a more complete evaluation of load-estimation methods. Estimation methods were less accurate when computing loads at annual rather than decadal time steps. Depending on the water-quality constituent, annual loads were within comparable accuracy thresholds 21 to 64 percent of the time relative to decadal loads. The accuracy of annual load estimates varied among water-quality constituents, sampling strategies, sampling sites, and estimation methods. Methods were most accurate when estimating chloride and decreased in accuracy when estimating total nitrogen, nitrate plus nitrite, total phosphorus, and suspended-sediment loads. Estimation methods were most likely to compute accurate annual loads when samples were collected frequently (26 samples per year) and when sampling strategies targeted high-flow conditions. For a given water-quality constituent, estimation accuracy differed substantially among sampling sites; estimates were more likely to be accurate at large rivers with less variability in concentration and (or) discharge conditions and were less likely to be accurate at smaller stream sites with more variable streamflow and (or) water-quality concentrations. The Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season method with Kalman filtering (WRTDS_K) generally produced the most accurate annual load estimates among sampling sites and water-quality constituents. Although WRTDS_K was the most accurate generally, every estimation method evaluated had the potential to produce accurate (and inaccurate) load estimates depending on the site, constituent, and water year. Linear interpolation and ratio estimators that used samples exclusively from the year being estimated were among the best performing methods for total nitrogen and nitrate plus nitrite loads but were among the least accurate when estimating annual total phosphorus and suspended-sediment loads. Ratio estimation that considered samples from previous years and stratified based on streamflow conditions produced among the most accurate total phosphorus estimates but was among the least accurate for other constituents. Regression-based methods that assumed linear or quadratic relations among the logarithm of water-quality concentrations and streamflow conditions were among the least accurate methods generally, whereas regression-based methods that considered cubic relations among the logarithm of concentration and streamflow and the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) method were typically more accurate. Methods that adjusted daily estimates computed from regression or weighted-regression methods based on departures from sampled values, such as WRTDS_K and the composite method, improved estimate accuracy for most sites and constituents, but especially for chloride, total nitrogen, nitrate plus nitrite, and suspended-sediment estimates. Investigation of the underlying causes of estimation method bias indicated that sites and years with more variability in concentration and loading conditions, higher slopes in the relation of the logarithm of concentration and discharge, and sampling plans that underrepresented high-flow conditions generally led to less accurate load estimates. Finally, because all methods indicated the capacity to produce biased load estimates, additional work is needed to identify the capacity of new technologies, such as continuous water-quality sensors, to improve the accuracy of annual or shorter term load estimates. Based on findings in this report, the NWQN will continue to publish water-quality loads using LOADEST-based methods that consider multiple transformations of streamflow, as well as season, time, and variables indicative of historical streamflow conditions to maintain consistent methods for stakeholders. However, the NWQN also plans to begin publishing annual load estimates using the WRTDS_K method in 2020 because this method was determined to be the most accurate for a given site, constituent, and water year.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

The use of continuous water-quality time-series data to compute total phosphorus loadings for the Turkey River at Garber, Iowa, 2018–20

In support of nutrient reduction efforts, total phosphorus loads and yields were computed for the Turkey River at Garber, Iowa (U.S. Geological Survey station 05412500), for January 1, 2018, to April 30, 2020, based on continuously monitored turbidity sensor data. Sample data were used to create a total phosphorus turbidity-surrogate model. Streamflow-based total phosphorus models were used during periods of missing sensor data to obtain a more complete annual total phosphorus load. This report presents methods needed to accurately compute site-specific loads and track annual progress toward nutrient reduction goals within the State. Annual total phosphorus loads for the Turkey River at Garber, Iowa, were 1,740 and 1,490 U.S. short tons for 2018 and 2019, respectively, with annual yields ranging from 3.01 to 3.53 pounds per acre per year, compared to a mean statewide yield of 0.73 pound per acre per year needed to achieve the total phosphorus-reduction goal.

Iowa↗