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USGS2024

The National Ocean Biodiversity Strategy

President Biden has been clear that the ocean is central to life on Earth. As he has proclaimed, “the ocean powers millions of jobs; feeds and sustains us; and is a rejuvenating source of inspiration, exploration, and recreation.” The Biden-Harris Administration has worked hard to fulfill the President’s goal to protect and conserve at least 30% of U.S. waters by 2030. The ocean faces increased threats from warming, overfishing, increased acidity, and loss of biodiversity. It is now more important than ever to sustain the many benefits that the ocean, coasts, and Great Lakes provide, including food, a favorable climate, recreation, physical and mental health, and for many, a sense of cultural identity. Ocean life represents an irreplaceable heritage, the foundation of a habitable planet, and a vast trove of resources. Keeping our ocean healthy requires reliable information on the changing status of these living organisms, the drivers of biodiversity change, and options for effectively addressing those drivers. Over 2 million species are estimated to live in the ocean, yet only about 240,000 species have been described by scientists. Most of the ocean’s benefits result from those diverse species interacting with one another and the environment they create. To protect and conserve the ocean, we as a nation need to make better use of existing knowledge and prioritize acquiring new biodiversity knowledge to enable better policy and management decisions. The ability to monitor ocean species and habitats has expanded dramatically over the past decade, with innovations in technology, genomics, taxonomy, big data management and sharing, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. Yet large fractions of the U.S. ocean remain almost unknown. The National Ocean Biodiversity Strategy (strategy) reflects the urgent need to leverage these advances. The goals of this strategy must be guided by the nation’s diverse voices and ways of knowing, in order to maximize effective and equitable stewardship of the ocean’s diverse life and its benefits to people. The strategy is intended as a guiding document for government to advance three overarching goals: ● Goal 1: Drive delivery of ocean biodiversity knowledge at the national scale. Objectives include developing an Implementation Plan for achieving the strategy’s three goals; establishing a coordination mechanism to manage the implementation; and documenting gaps in biodiversity knowledge and the benefits of ocean biodiversity to people and economies. ● Goal 2: Strengthen tools and institutions to deliver ocean biodiversity knowledge. Objectives include establishing a robust information pipeline to support indicators and dynamic maps of ocean biodiversity, from the coasts to the deep sea. This pipeline should include expanded observing systems and comprehensive data management; science and technology solutions to accelerate the availability of biodiversity information; and plans to leverage previous investments to rebuild and expand the nation’s human capital and infrastructure to sustain foundational taxonomy and biodiversity science. ● Goal 3: Protect, conserve, restore, and sustainably use ocean biodiversity. Objectives include expanding the collection, delivery, and use of biodiversity knowledge to inform actions that advance ocean protection, conservation, restoration, and sustainable development. Government should lead in establishing and incentivizing diverse partnerships across scales and sectors to implement those actions and should educate and involve the public to discover and value the nation’s diverse ocean life. Achieving these goals will require commitments across society: new federal and private investments, coordination across sectors to address climate and equity challenges, and engagement of Indigenous Knowledge holders and frontline communities as full partners throughout planning and implementation. The Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology (SOST) IWG-Biodiversity will begin developing an Implementation Plan to describe and direct specific actions to implement the strategy. Successful implementation of the strategy will harmonize and expand collection and delivery of timely knowledge on ocean life to all of society. The strategy will also enable evidence-based management and protection of the ocean. Advancing the strategy will build human and institutional capital and partnerships that support both existing mandates and new needs to rebuild and sustain biodiversity, achieve healthy ocean ecosystems, and manage living resources. Implementing the strategy will deliver knowledge for monitoring, modeling, forecasting, and assessments that support food security, public health, and cultural values, and that more effectively protect, conserve, and restore nature.

Report↗
USGS2025

Analysis of trends in terrestrial vegetation at Mediterranean Coast Network Parks: Channel Islands National Park

The five islands comprising Channel Islands National Park (CHIS) experience natural gradients in temperature and moisture driven by ocean currents. Additionally, the islands were used as ranchlands and military land before becoming a national park, resulting in widespread erosion and vegetation change. As a result, CHIS spans gradients in climate as well as ranching duration and time since animal removal. Vegetation monitoring was initiated in 1984 on three islands (Anacapa, Santa Barbara, San Miguel), in 1990 on Santa Rosa Island, and in 1998 on Santa Cruz Island, with the goal of documenting the long-term response of island vegetation to ranch animal removal and climate fluctuations. Since that time, monitoring has documented the range of natural fluctuation in island environments over decades and provided insights into vegetation change in ecosystems unencumbered by ongoing development. Long-term vegetation monitoring at CHIS is therefore a rare example of an ecosystem experiment that demonstrates the results of management actions and serves as a baseline for land managers and scientists worldwide. Terrestrial vegetation data collected between 1984 and 2018 were modeled to estimate trends over time and to characterize relationships with covariates related to site characteristics, nonnative mammal removal programs, and water balance metrics. Data were analyzed for trends in vegetation cover, woody plant density, and plant community diversity grouped by life form and nativity across all islands and within individual islands, as well as for several individual species that dominate plant communities or present challenges to native plant recovery. In all, a total of 162 trend and covariate models were tested in this study, the details of which are provided in this report. Briefly, results reflect a decline in nonnative annual disturbance-thriving species with the reduction in animal grazing and trampling. Increasing trends were observed in native shrub density and native shrub recruitment density, as well as native shrub cover across all islands averaged together and on Santa Cruz Island. However, opposite trends were seen on the smaller islands of Santa Barbara and Anacapa, where increasing seabird activity may be damaging vegetation. Further results indicate the importance of soil moisture, relative humidity, fog, precipitation, site exposure, and solar radiation for vegetation patterns and trends. In many instances, there are apparent interacting effects of environmental variables with trends related to nonnative mammal removal and site location. Vegetation patterns in space and time emerge in the dataset as nuanced responses to interacting drivers.

Calfornia↗
USGS2020

The relation of geogenic contaminants to groundwater age, aquifer hydrologic position, water type, and redox conditions in Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain aquifers, eastern and south-central USA

Groundwater age distributions developed from carbon-14 (14C), tritium (3H), and helium-4 (4He) concentrations, along with aquifer hydrologic position, water type, and redox conditions, were compared to geogenic contaminants of concern (GCOC) from 252 public-supply wells in six Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain unconsolidated-sediment aquifers. Concentrations of one or more GCOCs in 168 (67%) wells exceeded MCLs (maximum contaminant levels), SMCLs (secondary MCLs), or HBSLs (health-based screening levels). Human-health benchmark thresholds (MCLs or HBSLs) were exceeded in 31 (12%) wells, and included 0.8% for fluoride (F), 2.4% for arsenic (As), 4% for lead-210 (210Pb), and 4.8% for polonium-210 (210Po). Values of pH increase with age and were outside the SMCL in 31% of wells (23% < 6.5 and 7.5% > 8.5, SMCL). Among GCOCs with concentrations that increased significantly with groundwater age, the frequency of sentry threshold exceedances (i.e., one-half of MCL, SMCL, or HBSL) included 40% for dissolved solids (DS), 12% for chloride (Cl), 3.6% for F, 4.4% for As, and 9.1% for 210Po. Iron (Fe) concentrations did not correlate with groundwater age but exceeded sentry thresholds in 29% of wells. Groundwater age, water types, redox, pH, and GCOCs varied because of unique hydrogeologic features of the aquifers (recharge locations and geometry). As expected, primarily confined aquifers had young, oxic, low to near-neutral pH water near the outcrop (recharge area), and older, reduced, high pH water deeper and farther along flow paths. However, unique aquifer hydrogeologic conditions, such as multiple-recharge zones produced anomalous patterns of young and old groundwater at varying depths and locations along flow paths. Evidence for this variability is seen in disequilibrium patterns in the progression of the chemical evolution of groundwater with hydrologic position. When hydrogeologic differences are considered, groundwater age combined with hydrologic-position data, can provide a strong basis for inferring potential occurrence of GCOCs.

Gulf Coastal Plain aquifers↗
USGS2020

Book review: Proceedings of the First International Snakehead Symposium

Snakehead fishes (family Channidae) are among the most maligned aquatic invasive species in the USA and some other countries where they have been introduced outside of their native range in Asia and Africa. Nevertheless, snakeheads continue to be widely exploited in the live‐food trade in aquaculture and wild‐capture fisheries, are highly sought by anglers, and are also popular in the aquarium trade (Courtenay and Williams 2004). The Northern Snakehead Channa argus is the most widespread of the three channid species that are currently naturalized in the USA. This species has generated much concern and controversy, a situation that is partly fueled by sensational media coverage and B‐grade science fiction horror films, such as “Frankenfish,” “Snakehead Terror,” and “Snakehead Swamp.” Media reports of snakehead introductions are often replete with provocative terms, such as “vicious,” “villain,” “voracious,” “monster,” “diabolical,” and even “ecological Armageddon.” When snakeheads first appeared in natural waters of the USA, fisheries professionals became increasingly interested in their status. Established populations rapidly expanded in the mid‐Atlantic region and Arkansas, with scattered reports of introduced snakeheads from isolated locations in Hawaii, California, North Carolina, Florida, the Upper Midwest, and New England. In 2002, snakeheads were added to the list of injurious fishes under the Lacey Act, thereby prohibiting their importation or transport across state lines without a permit. This symposium was conceived by the editors and other concerned fisheries professionals of the Mississippi River Basin Panel on Aquatic Invasive Species. The mission of the symposium, held in Alexandria, Virginia, in July 2018, was to bring together experts on snakehead biology and ecology and to synthesize existing information into summary papers. In this book, 35 authors contributed to 15 peer‐reviewed articles that detail the current state of knowledge about snakehead introductions in the USA. Additionally, 16 abstracts are included from meeting presentations that were not accompanied by full‐length manuscripts. Also included is a summary of a facilitated symposium panel discussion featuring eight experts representing state and federal natural resource agencies and private fishing organizations. The book is organized into six sections. In the first section (Distribution), three papers provide an overview of the Channa species introduced into the USA and historical accounts of occurrence and dispersal of the Northern Snakehead in the mid‐Atlantic region and Arkansas. The second section (Biology/Ecology) consists of two articles that examine growth and energetics of Northern Snakehead populations and two papers that investigate diet, diel feeding activity, and movement of this species in the Potomac River drainage. The third section (Monitoring/Response) includes a paper that models range expansion of the Northern Snakehead in the southeastern USA based on occurrence data and environmental conditions. Also included in this section is a paper summarizing an environmental DNA study to assess the status and range of the Bullseye Snakehead C. marulius in southern Florida. The fourth section (Management/Control) is comprised of four papers that address harvest, age and growth, and development of a stock–recruitment model to inform management decisions regarding control and mitigation for Northern Snakehead populations in the greater Chesapeake Bay area. The fifth section (Perspectives) includes a paper on the history of snakehead introductions in Japan and a thought‐provoking social commentary on the human dimensions of Northern Snakehead management. Abstracts in the final section provide brief summaries of a diversity of snakehead studies, including aspects of distribution, ecology, behavior, control and monitoring efforts, public outreach, and pathology. The summary of the panel discussion is an engaging dialogue about the challenges of snakehead management in the context of conflicts regarding snakeheads as injurious versus their value as game and food species. Most of this book is focused on the Northern Snakehead. Much has been done to document snakehead distributions and certain aspects of snakehead biology, such as diets, age, and growth. Less research has been devoted to understanding the ecological impacts of snakeheads to native aquatic communities and ecosystems. This book would have benefited from a chapter summarizing the current systematics and diversity of the Channidae to inform fisheries biologists about the morphological characteristics of the family, approximate numbers of genera and species, and taxonomic instability. Exemplifying the latter, recent molecular and morphological evidence indicates uncertainty regarding identification of the feral snakehead population in Florida (Adamson and Britz 2019). Those authors suggest that this population may have originated from western Thailand, a possibility that could have implications for understanding historical pathways of snakehead introductions into the USA. In comparison with many published AFS symposia, this volume is relatively narrow in scope and lacks cohesive integration. It will primarily be of interest to those fisheries professionals engaged in the study of snakeheads as well as other nonnative species for which there are contrasting social values regarding their management: whether to monitor and attempt control or eradication efforts or to maintain populations for harvest as game or food species. The book should serve to identify information gaps and guide future research.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗
USGS1999

Hourly and daily variation of sediment redox potential in tidal wetland sediments

Variation of electrochemical oxidation-reduction (redox) potential was examined in surface salt march sediments under conditions of flooding and tidal simulation in mesocosms and field sites. Time series were generated of redox potential measured in sediment profiles at 2-10 cm depth using combination Pt-Ag/AgCl (ORP) electrodes. Redox potential data were acquired at rapid rates (1-55 samples/h) over extended periods (3-104 days) along with similar times series of temperature (water, air, soil) and pH. It was found that redox potential vaired as a result of water level changes and was unrelated to diurnal changes in temperature or pH, the latter of which changed by <0.5 units over the tide cycles. In closed, hydrostatic microcosms isolated from atmospheric oxygen, development of negative redox potentials proceeded rapidly (>370 mV redox potential decrease in under 48 hours). Attenuatoin of microbial activity by [gamma] y-radiation and toxic chemicals elimintated this response. In tidal salt marsh mesocosms where the sediment-plant assemblages were exposed to a simulated diurnal tide, redox potenial oscillations of 40-300 mV amplitude were recoded that has the same periodicity as the flood-drain cycle. Periodic redoc potential time series were observed repeatedly in sediments receiving tidal pulsing but not in those sediments exposed to static hydrological conditions. Data collected over 12 days from a coastal marsh site experiencing diurnal tides showed similar fluctuations in redox potential. Data from the experimentents indicated that (a) redox potential can be a dynamic, nonlinear variable in coastal and estuarine wetland sediments over hourly and daily scales, and the designs of biogeochemical experiments should reflect this, (b) redox potential can change rapidly and signigicantly in coastal wetland sediments in response of flooding and draining, (c) microbial community processes are primarily determinants of the time course of redox potential in wetland sediments, and elimination of inhibition of microbial activity (e.g. by pollutants) can significantly alter that behavior, and (d) fast redox potential dynamics appear to be characteristic of sediments that experience changes in hydrology. The rapid redox potential changes observed in these systems indicated dynamic metabolic and biogeochemical conditions in the field, and confirmed that hourly and daily redox potential variations should be resolved in studies of sediment functioning.

Biological Science Report↗
USGS1981

Simulation model of Skeletonema costatum population dynamics in northern San Francisco Bay, California

A pseudo-two-dimensional model is developed to simulate population dynamics of one dominant phytoplankton species ( Skeletonema costatum ) in northern San Francisco Bay. The model is formulated around a conceptualization of this estuary as two distinct but coupled subsystems—a deep (10–20 m) central channel and lateral areas with shallow (<2 m) water and slow circulation. Algal growth rates are governed by solar irradiation, temperature and salinity, while population losses are assumed to result from grazing bycalanoid copepods. Consequences of estuarine gravitational circulation are approximated simply by reducing convective-dispersive transport in that section of the channel (null zone) where residual bottom currents are near zero, and lateral mixing is treated as a bulkexchange process between the channel and the shoals. Model output is consistent with the hypothesis that, because planktonic algae are light-limited, shallow areas are the sites of active population growth. Seasonal variation in the location of the null zone (a response to variable river discharge) is responsible for maintaining the spring bloom of neritic diatoms in the seaward reaches of the estuary (San Pablo Bay) and the summer bloom upstream (Suisun Bay). Model output suggests that these spring and summer blooms result from the same general process—establishment of populations over the shoals, where growth rates are rapid, coupled with reduced particulate transport due to estuarine gravitational circulation. It also suggests, however, that the relative importance of physical and biological processes to phytoplankton dynamics is different in San Pablo and Suisun Bays. Finally, the model has helped us determine those processes having sufficient importance to merit further refinement in the next generation of models, and it has given new direction to field studies.

California↗
USGS2009

Changes in the chemistry of shallow groundwater related to the 2008 injection of CO2 at the ZERT field site, Bozeman, Montana

Approximately 300 kg/day of food-grade CO 2 was injected through a perforated pipe placed horizontally 2–2.3 m deep during July 9–August 7, 2008 at the MSU-ZERT field test to evaluate atmospheric and near-surface monitoring and detection techniques applicable to the subsurface storage and potential leakage of CO 2 . As part of this multidisciplinary research project, 80 samples of water were collected from 10 shallow monitoring wells (1.5 or 3.0 m deep) installed 1–6 m from the injection pipe, at the southwestern end of the slotted section (zone VI), and from two distant monitoring wells. The samples were collected before, during, and following CO 2 injection. The main objective of study was to investigate changes in the concentrations of major, minor, and trace inorganic and organic compounds during and following CO 2 injection. The ultimate goals were (1) to better understand the potential of groundwater quality impacts related to CO 2 leakage from deep storage operations, (2) to develop geochemical tools that could provide early detection of CO 2 intrusion into underground sources of drinking water (USDW), and (3) to test the predictive capabilities of geochemical codes against field data. Field determinations showed rapid and systematic changes in pH (7.0–5.6), alkalinity (400–1,330 mg/l as HCO 3 ), and electrical conductance (600–1,800 μS/cm) following CO 2 injection in samples collected from the 1.5 m-deep wells. Laboratory results show major increases in the concentrations of Ca (90–240 mg/l), Mg (25–70 mg/l), Fe (5–1,200 ppb), and Mn (5–1,400 ppb) following CO 2 injection. These chemical changes could provide early detection of CO 2 leakage into shallow groundwater from deep storage operations. Dissolution of observed carbonate minerals and desorption-ion exchange resulting from lowered pH values following CO 2 injection are the likely geochemical processes responsible for the observed increases in the concentrations of solutes; concentrations generally decreased temporarily following four significant precipitation events. The DOC values obtained are 5 ± 2 mg/l, and the variations do not correlate with CO 2 injection. CO 2 injection, however, is responsible for detection of BTEX (e.g. benzene, 0–0.8 ppb), mobilization of metals, the lowered pH values, and increases in the concentrations of other solutes in groundwater. The trace metal and BTEX concentrations are all significantly below the maximum contaminant levels (MCLs). Sequential leaching of core samples is being carried out to investigate the source of metals and other solutes.

Montana↗
USGS1991

Seasonal variations of carbon dioxide concentrations in stony, coarse-textured desert soils of southern Nevada, USA

Knowledge of carbon dioxide concentration in desert soils is required in theoretical models of the development of pedogenic and ground-water calcium carbonate. Most studies have concentrated on medium- to fine-textured soils in temperate to humid environments. Very little data exist for CO 2 concentrations in stony, coarse-textured deposits such as those making up alluvial fans and fluvial terraces. The purpose of this study was to obtain CO 2 concentration data in stony, coarse-textured, uncultivated soils in a desert environment. Soil gas samples were collected from two sites—Yucca Wash and Rock Valley—at the Nevada Test Site in southern Nevada between June 1985 and June 1986 to determine soil CO 2 concentrations and their seasonal and depth variations in the soil profile. Soil CO 2 concentrations ranged from 0.03 volume percent in winter and summer to 0.25 volume percent in spring. During the summer, fall, and winter, CO 2 concentrations were close to atmospheric levels and varied randomly with depth. In spring, CO 2 varied with root density, highest concentrations occurring between 40 and 80 cm of depth. Maximum CO 2 values decrease and occur at progressively deeper levels toward the end of spring. Biological activity appears to be limited throughout the year because of the arid climate. During the winter and spring, soil CO 2 appears to be more dependent on temperature than moisture, whereas in the summer and fall it appears to be dependent on moisture. Soil gas samples were also collected during the spring from three sites in the Kyle Canyon area in southern Nevada to determine the variation of soil CO 2 levels with changes in elevation and vegetation. Soil CO 2 values increased from 0.04 to 0.24 volume percent with increasing elevation.

Nevada↗
USGS2023

Model-based assessment and mapping of total phosphorus enrichment in rivers with sparse reference data

Water nutrient management efforts are frequently coordinated across thousands of water bodies, leading to a need for spatially extensive information to facilitate decision making. Here we explore potential applications of a machine learning model of river low-flow total phosphorus (TP) concentrations to support landscape nutrient management. The model was trained, validated, and then applied for all rivers of Michigan, USA to identify potential drivers of nutrient variation, predict alteration in nutrient concentrations from minimally disturbed conditions, and explore reach specific sensitivity to riparian agricultural change. A boosted regression tree model of low-flow TP concentrations trained on natural and anthropogenic landscape predictors accounted for 53 % of variation in cross-validation data, had good accuracy, little bias, and plausible relationships between predictors and response. Percent riparian agricultural cover accounted for the greatest root mean square error reduction in the modeled response (33.2 %), followed by riparian soil permeability (12.9 %), watershed slope (9.6 %), and percent urban cover (9.6 %). An apparent non-linear relationship between TP concentrations and percent riparian agricultural cover suggested steep positive increases in stream TP concentrations between 10 and 30 % upstream riparian agricultural cover. Predicted minimally disturbed TP concentrations were spatially variable and ranged from 7.0 to 48.5 μg l −1 , with the highest concentrations in watersheds draining low-permeability lake plain soils. Comparison of minimally disturbed predictions to those from the early 2000s suggested that much of northern Michigan existed close to the reference condition, while lower Michigan streams were often substantially enriched. Our predicted values of minimally disturbed condition generally agree with previous studies but offer greater geographic specificity. Expanded application of machine learning modeling with landscape predictor data have great potential to inform large scale strategy development in landscapes with sparse reference data.

Michigan↗
USGS2011

Distribution and abundance of saltcedar and Russian olive in the western United States

Over the past century, two introduced Eurasian trees, saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) and Russian olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia) have become wide spread on western United States of American (U.S.) rivers. This paper reviews the literature on the following five key areas related to their distribution and abundance in the western United States: (1) the history of introduction, planting, and spread of saltcedar and Russian olive; (2) their current distribution; (3) their current abundance; (4) factors controlling their current distribution and abundance; and (5) models that have been developed to predict their future distribution and abundance. Saltcedar and Russian olive are now the third and fourth most frequently occurring woody riparian plants and the second and fifth most abundant species (out of 42 native and non-native species) along rivers in the western United States. Currently there is not a precise estimate of the areas that these species occupy in the entire West. Climatic variables are important determinants of their distribution and abundance. For example, saltcedar is limited by its sensitivity to hard freezes, whereas Russian olive appears to have a chilling requirement for bud break and seed germination, and can presumably survive colder winter temperatures. Either species can be dominant, co-dominant or sub-dominant relative to native species on a given river system. A number of environmental factors such as water availability, soil salinity, degree of stream flow regulation, and fire frequency can influence the abundance of these species relative to native species. Numerous studies suggest that both species have spread on western rivers primarily through a replacement process, whereby stress-tolerant species have moved into expanded niches that are no longer suitable for mesic native pioneer species. Better maps of current distribution and rigorous monitoring of distributional changes though time can help to resolve differences in predictions of potential future spread. An adequate understanding does not yet exist of what fraction of western riparian zones is resistant to dominance by either of these species, what fraction is at risk and could benefit from intervention, and what fraction has been altered to the point that saltcedar or Russian olive are most likely to thrive.

Critical Reviews in Plant Science↗
USGS2019

The importance of natural versus human factors for ecological conditions of streams and rivers

Streams are influenced by watershed-scale factors, such as climate, geology, topography, hydrology, and soils, which mostly vary naturally among sites, as well as human factors, agriculture and urban development. Thus, natural factors could complicate assessment of human disturbance. In the present study, we use structural equation modeling and data from the 2008-2009 United States National Rivers and Streams Assessment to quantify the relative importance of watershed-scale natural and human factors for in-stream conditions. We hypothesized that biological condition, represented using a diatom multimetric index (MMI), is directly affected by in-stream physicochemical environment, which in turn is regulated by natural and human factors. We evaluated this hypothesis at both national and ecoregion scales to understand how influences vary among regions. We found that direct influences of in-stream environment on diatom MMIs were greater than natural and human factors at the national scale and in all but one ecoregion. Meanwhile, in-stream environments were jointly explained by natural variations in precipitation, base flow index, hydrological stability, % volcanic rock, soil water table depth, and soil depth and by human factors measured as % crops, % other agriculture, and % urban land use. The explained variance of in-stream environment by natural and human factors ranged from 0.30 to 0.75, for which natural factors independently accounted for the largest proportion of explained variance at the national scale and in seven ecoregions. Covariation between natural and human factors accounted for a higher proportion of explained variance of in-stream environment than unique effects of human factors in most ecoregions. Ecoregions with relatively weak effects by human factors had relatively high levels of covariance, high levels of human disturbance, or small ranges in human disturbance. We conclude that accounting for effects of natural factors and their covariation with human factors will be important for accurate ecological assessments.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2020

Pesticide mixtures show potential toxicity to aquatic life in U.S. streams, water years 2013-2017

During water years (WY) 2013–2017, the U.S. Geological Survey, National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Project, sampled the National Water Quality Network – Rivers and Streams (NWQN) year-round and reported on 221 pesticides at 72 sites across the United States in agricultural, developed, and mixed land use watersheds. The Pesticide Toxicity Index (PTI) was used to estimate the potential chronic and acute toxicity to three taxonomic groups – fish, cladocerans, and benthic invertebrates. For invertebrates (either cladocerans, benthic invertebrates, or both), the maximum PTI score exceeded the predicted acute toxicity screening level at 18 of the 72 sites (25%) at some point during WY 2013–2017. The predicted toxicity of a single pesticide compound was found to overwhelm the toxicity of other pesticides in the mixtures after concentrations were toxicity weighted. For this study, about 71%, 72%, and 92% of the Fish-, Cladoceran-, and Benthic Invertebrate-PTI scores, respectively, had one pesticide compound primarily contributing to sample potential toxicity (>50%). There were 17 (13 insecticides, 2 herbicides, 1 fungicide, and 1 synergist) of the 221 pesticide compounds analyzed that were the primary drivers of potential toxicity in each water sample in which the PTI and TUmax (toxic unit score for the pesticide that makes the single largest contribution to the PTI) scores were above predicted chronic (>0.1) or acute (>1) toxicity levels for one of the three taxa. For cladocerans and benthic invertebrates, the drivers of predicted chronic (>0.1) and acute (>1) PTIs were mostly insecticides. For cladocerans, the pesticide compounds driving the PTI scores were bifenthrin, carbaryl, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, dichlorvos, dicrotophos, diflubenzuron, flubendiamide, and tebupirimfos. For benthic invertebrates, atrazine (an herbicide), as well as the insecticides – bifenthrin, carbaryl, carbofuran, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, dichlorvos, fipronil, imidacloprid, and methamidophos – were the drivers of predicted toxicity. For fish, there were three pesticide types that contributed the most to predicted chronic (>0.1) PTIs – acetochlor, an herbicide; carbendazim, a fungicide degradate; and piperonylbutoxide, a synergist.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2018

Food web contaminant dynamics of a large Atlantic Slope river: Implications for common and imperiled species

Persistent and bioaccumulative contaminants often reach concentrations that threaten aquatic life by causing alterations in organism behavior and development, disruption of biological processes, reproductive abnormalities, and mortality. The objectives of this research were to determine the aquatic food web structure and trophic transfer and accumulation of contaminants within a riverine ecosystem and identify potential stressors to the health of an imperiled fish, the robust redhorse (Moxostoma robustum) and other species of conservation concern in a large Atlantic Slope (USA) river. Trophic position was determined for food web taxa by stable isotope analyses of representative producers, consumers, and organic matter of the Yadkin-Pee Dee River of North Carolina and South Carolina. Contaminant analyses were performed on water, sediment, organic matter, and aquatic biota to assess the prevalence and accumulation of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), current use pesticides (CUPs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and selected metals. Contaminants were prevalent in the environment and food web components of the river. PCBs were detected in 32% of biotic samples (mean 0.24 μg/g dry weight [DW], range 0.01–3.33 μg/g DW), and DDTs (legacy OCPs and metabolites) were detected in 90% (mean 0.014 μg/g DW, range 0.0004–0.29 μg/g DW). The trace metals manganese and cadmium exceeded published threshold effect concentrations in sediment (460 and 0.99 μg/g DW, respectively). Mercury was detected in all food web samples exhibiting a mean of 0.61 μg/g DW and range 0.006–2.35 μg/g DW (mean 0.13 μg/g wet weight [WW], range 0.001–0.6 μg/g WW). Concentrations exceeded the 0.2 μg/g WW aquatic life criterion for mercury in 38% of fish samples. Fish trophic magnification factors (TMFs; range 0.33–3.75) indicated that contaminant accumulation occurred from both water and dietary sources. The combination of analytical approaches applied here provides new insight into contaminant dynamics with conservation implications.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2010

Natural chlorate in the environment: Application of a new IC-ESI/MS/MS method with a Cl18O3- internal standard

A new ion chromatography electrospray tandem mass spectrometry (IC-ESI/MS/MS) method has been developed for quantification and confirmation of chlorate (ClO 3 − ) in environmental samples. The method involves the electro-chemical generation of isotopically labeled chlorate internal standard (Cl 18 O 3 − ) using 18 O water (H 2 18 O). The standard was added to all samples prior to analysis thereby minimizing the matrix effects that are associated with common ions without the need for expensive sample pretreatments. The method detection limit (MDL) for ClO 3 − was 2 ng L −1 for a 1 mL volume sample injection. The proposed method was successfully applied to analyze ClO 3 − in difficult environmental samples including soil and plant leachates. The IC-ESI/MS/MS method described here was also compared to established EPA method 317.0 for ClO 3 − analysis. Samples collected from a variety of environments previously shown to contain natural perchlorate (ClO 4 − ) occurrence were analyzed using the proposed method and ClO 3 − was found to co-occur with ClO 4 − at concentrations ranging from <2 ng L −1 in precipitation from Texas and Puerto Rico to >500 mg kg −1 in caliche salt deposits from the Atacama Desert in Chile. Relatively low concentrations of ClO 3 − in some natural groundwater samples (<0.1 μg L −1 ) analyzed in this work may indicate lower stability when compared to ClO 4 − in the subsurface. The high concentrations of ClO 3 − in caliches and soils (3−6 orders of magnitude greater) as compared to precipitation samples indicate that ClO 3 − , like ClO 4 − , may be atmospherically produced and deposited, then concentrated in dry soils, and is possibly a minor component in the biogeochemical cycle of chlorine.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2022

Contaminants of emerging concern in the Great Lakes: Science to inform management practices for protecting the health and integrity of wildlife populations from adverse effects: GLRI action plan I, focus area 1, goal 5

Executive Summary: Under Action Plan I (2010-2014) of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI), Federal and Academic partners began an investigation of the presence and distribution of contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in the Great Lakes and potential impacts on fish and wildlife. The term CECs is applied to a broad range of chemicals that are currently in use but for which we currently lack good understanding of whether fish, wildlife, or humans are being exposed and/or whether negative health or environmental effects are expected if exposure occurs. Pharmaceuticals, personal care products, flame retardants, many current use pesticides, and poly- and perfluorinated chemicals are some well-known groups of CECs, but there is no definitive or comprehensive list that can be used to support the management of CECs to reduce impacts on the Great Lakes ecosystem. Four overarching goals were identified for this collaborative investigation: 1. Evaluate the sources, occurrence, and distribution of CECs across the Great Lakes Basin. 2. Examine associations between the distribution of CECs and land-use patterns. 3. Review both scientific literature and field-generated data to determine the potential for CECs to cause adverse effects on Great Lakes fish and wildlife populations. 4. Develop efficient strategies to survey and/or monitor for threats that CECs may pose in order to take effective management actions before those threats evolve into large scale impacts on Great Lakes ecosystems or the services they provide. Achievement of these goals ensures progress towards Focus Area 1: Toxic Substances and Areas of Concern from GLRI Action Plan I, Goal 5: “ The health and integrity of wildlife populations and habitat are protected from adverse chemical and biological effects associated with the presence of toxic substances in the Great Lakes Basin ”. This large-scale research effort was comprised of individual and collaborative projects from multiple federal agencies and academic institutions, involving over 85 investigators, and overseen by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 5, Great Lakes National Program Office. Partners include the United States Geological Survey, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Saint Cloud State University, the U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Key findings: 1. Contaminants of emerging concern were found throughout the monitored Great Lakes tributaries, but types and concentrations vary in association with regional land use. CECs were detected in nearly all samples collected. The type and concentration of the specific contaminants detected varied considerably among field sites and in association with land use type, such as urban, agricultural, wetland, 2 or forest. Contaminants were detected in the water column, sediment, and tissues of all species surveyed in the current work (mussels, aquatic insects, fish, and insect-eating birds). 2. There were over 20 contaminants for which CEC concentrations approached or exceeded those reported to cause toxicity in laboratory experiments. This was based on detection in water, sediments and or biota at one or more field sites. These contaminants represent compounds that warrant further investigation and monitoring with respect to potential impacts in certain areas of the Great Lakes basin. Based on the present investigation, compounds of greatest concern include: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, associated with oil-based products and combustion of organic matter; atrazine, an herbicide; dichlorvos, an insecticide; and ibuprofen and venlafaxine, both pharmaceuticals. 3. Results suggest that mixtures of CECs presently found in most Great Lakes tributary locations surveyed may elicit subtle biological effects, but likely are not, alone, causing obvious detriment to current communities of fish and wildlife. CECs detected in the Great Lakes were associated with subtle biological effects like changes in gene expression, altered circulating glucose, etc. in both wild-caught and laboratory-reared organisms. These effects were generally not indicative of reproductive failure or mortality. However, the effects may have more serious implications when combined with other sources of stress like habitat degradation, changing climate conditions, and competition with invasive species. Due to limited historical data, it is unknown whether severe CEC-related impacts have already affected aquatic communities in waterbodies that have received long-term inputs of these contaminants. Likewise, under Action Plan I, biological effects were not necessarily evaluated at the sites where CEC concentrations exceeding laboratory toxicity thresholds were detected. As a result, strategic, ongoing surveillance and monitoring of CECs is warranted. This collaborative investigation resulted in new tools, approaches, and data that can be used to inform and support the management of CECs to reduce their impacts on Great Lakes natural resources. The following products of this research effort are available through https://communities.geoplatform.gov/glri/ or by contacting the investigators (see technical chapters found in Appendices A-F): 1. Database of CEC occurrence and concentrations in US tributary streams. The database includes CEC detections in water, sediment, and fish and wildlife tissues, and represents the most comprehensive survey of CECs in the Great Lakes Region. 2. Synopses of results and key findings. Integrated summaries of results, conclusions, and management implications of the CEC research are available through reports, topical fact sheets, and presentations. 3. Technical publications: This collaborative research effort has resulted in over 50 peer-reviewed publications, agency reports, and data releases that can be of use to resource managers, the scientific community, and members of the public. 4. Innovative tools. Innovative monitoring devices, sampling equipment, conceptual frameworks, and software applications were developed over the course of this 3 research. These tools are transferable to stakeholders via internet accessibility or via specifications, instructions, and demonstration detailed in technical publications. Hypotheses to guide CECs research under Action Plan II. Findings from 2010-2014 were used to guide further research in 2015-2018 for basin-wide surveillance of CECs and for sites warranting further study of potential biological impacts of CECs. Additional surveillance included both evaluation of additional classes of contaminants and expanded lists for chemical classes shown to be of greatest concern. Mixtures of some of the most frequently detected contaminants were also tested in laboratory studies to understand whether long term exposures to multiple contaminants may result in effects not evident from uncontrolled, short-term field experiments.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2020

Population and habitat analyses for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the bi-state distinct population segment—2018 update

Executive Summary The Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (Bi-State DPS) of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus , hereinafter “sage-grouse”) represents a genetically distinct and geographically isolated population that straddles the border between Nevada and California. The primary threat to these sage-grouse populations is the expansion of single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and Utah juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma ) into sagebrush ecosystems, which fragments and reduces population connectivity and survival. Other important threats include low water availability during brood-rearing, particularly during drought, and increased predation by common ravens ( Corvus corax ), a generalist predator often associated with anthropogenic resource subsidies. Although the Bi-State DPS occurs at high elevations relative to sage-grouse range-wide, changes in historical wildfire cycles and the conversion of native shrubs to invasive annual grasslands still threaten these populations. The Bi-State DPS has undergone multiple federal status assessments and associated litigation. For example, in October of 2013, the Bi-State DPS was proposed for listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), then withdrawn in April 2015. The withdrawal decision was challenged, and in May 2018, a Federal district court ordered the withdrawal decision to be vacated, and USFWS was required to re-open the October 2013 listing evaluation. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), with State and Federal collaborators, embarked on a multipronged analysis to provide current and best available science regarding population status of sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS. Using data from a long-term monitoring program, we carried out four analytical study objectives, and here, we provide preliminary results of these analyses. First, we used integrated population modeling (IPM) to predict annual population abundance and annual finite rate of population change for the Bi-State DPS, as a whole, and for each subpopulation between 1995 and 2018. Because sage-grouse exhibit population cycles (periodic increases and decreases in abundance across approximately 6- to 10-year wavelengths), we estimated trends across three nested temporal scales that represent one (11 years), two (18 years), and three (24 years) complete population cycles. These estimates of relatively long-term averaged population change account for temporal (that is, interannual) variation. Our model predicted population abundance for the Bi-State DPS during 2018 at 3,305 individuals (2,247–4,683), with the majority occupying Bodie Hills and Long Valley. The model also predicted cyclic dynamics in abundance through time with evidence of 24-year population growth and slight trends of decline over the past 18 years. Specifically, across the Bi-State DPS as a whole, we estimated annual average at 0.99, 0.99, and 1.02 over the one, two, and three population cycles, which equated to a 10.5 percent, 16.6 percent decrease, and 60.0 percent increase in abundance over the 11-, 18-, and 24-year cycles. Estimated abundance in 2018 had not reached numbers lower than those predicted during 1995. However, we found spatial variation in population trends across the three cycles. Bodie Hills subpopulation comprised the greatest (1,521) and exhibited average annual greater than 1.0 across all periods resulting in average annual increases of 7 percent. This relatively large subpopulation has grown 5 times larger than what was predicted in 1995 while experiencing cyclical dynamics within that period. Conversely, other smaller subpopulations within the Bi-State DPS exhibited average annual equal to or less than 1.0 resulting in estimated 10-year risks of extirpation ranging from 2.0 to 76.1 percent. In general, evidence of decline among smaller subpopulations was greatest for the most recent period (2008–18) compared to a period that encompassed three full population cycles (24-year). This difference coincides with an intense period of drought that began in 2012. For comparative purposes as part of this first objective, we conducted a similar analysis for populations of sage-grouse within Nevada and California but outside the Bi-State DPS. We developed a region-wide and distance-weighted IPM using lek count from Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) databases and with telemetry data collected by USGS across 12 sage-grouse subpopulations. Our models predicted similar patterns in population cycling outside the Bi-State DPS but with much stronger evidence of long-term declines across 24 years. Specifically, median averaged across each year of the 11-, 18-, and 24-year periods resulted in average annual values of 0.94, 0.97, and 0.99, respectively. These values equate to 41.0 percent, 38.5 percent, and 21.3 percent declines over the corresponding periods. Second, we used lek count data in a state-space modeling framework to compare trends in population abundance across different spatial scales (that is, leks versus Bi-State DPS). This hierarchical framework allowed us to disentangle declines associated with climate conditions as opposed to other local level factors that might signal the need for management intervention. Specifically, we identified 7 leks that were both declining and recently decoupled from larger spatial scale trends, typically governed by climatic conditions (referred to as soft or hard signals). The goal of this analysis was to provide an early warning system that might have implications for conservation actions at local scales. Third, we developed phenological (spring, summer–fall, and winter) and reproductive life stage (nesting, early brood-rearing, and late-brood rearing) based resource selection functions using various environmental covariates. We report rankings of variable importance for each season and life stage, developed maps of habitat selection indices (HSI), binned categories representing low, moderate, and high classes of quality (where any category greater than or equal to low indicated selected habitat) for each phenological season and life stage, and produced composite maps by selected phenological and reproductive stage to estimate annual habitat. Fourth, we used for each lek within the Bi-State DPS to carry out a spatial analysis that quantified substantial changes in the distribution of occupied habitat across long- (24-year) and short- (11-year) term periods. Owing to differences among available datasets, the long-term analysis primarily reflected spatial shifts among subpopulations comprising the majority of the Bi-State DPS (that is, Bodie Hills and Long Valley) while the short-term analysis also quantified changes among subpopulations along the periphery. Over long and short-term periods, the overall distribution of occupied habitat (as measured by 99 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) was reduced by 20,573 ha and 55,492 ha, respectively. Occupied core areas (as measured by 50 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) over long-term periods were solely located in Bodie Hills and Long Valley. Although nearly all subpopulations experienced contractions in occupied overall and core distribution, Bodie Hills experienced spatial expansion that occurred with concomitant spatial contraction at Long Valley over both periods. Subpopulations at the northern (Pine Nuts), central (Sagehen) and southern (White-Mountains) extents of the Bi-State DPS also experienced spatial contraction over the short-term period. These findings, coupled with those of population trends, indicate long-term patterns in redistribution of sage-grouse from Long Valley and peripheral subpopulations to Bodie Hills. That is, sage-grouse subpopulations at the periphery are declining while the largest population at the core is increasing, which could have meaningful impacts on overall metapopulation persistence. We provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat (reduced distribution) given local extirpation of subpopulations. Fifth, we calculated percentages of selected phenological, life stage, and annual habitat that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. We then intersected these maps with a composite estimate of occupied habitat from the fourth objective and calculated percentages of selected habitat likely occupied by sage-grouse that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. These values provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat and subsequent reductions in spatial distribution given reductions in abundance and, in some cases, extirpation of leks within subpopulations. Lastly, we carried out an initial in-depth analysis of selection for irrigated pastures and wet meadows during the brood-rearing stage for the Long Valley subpopulation. We chose this subpopulation because it represents a population core, representing 26.5 percent of total sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS, and has exhibited long-term declines in abundance and distribution. This subpopulation is highly sensitive to precipitation and other factors that influence water availability. Models predicted higher use of the interior portions of irrigated pastures and wet meadows during late brood-rearing period, which represented a potentially risky use of habitat that was exacerbated during periods of low moisture (for example, drought, reduced water delivery, or both). Sage-grouse typically used edges of riparian areas and pastures, largely because the interior of these mesic areas consisted of considerably less overhead concealment cover (for example, shrubs) that likely resulted in a higher risk of mortality. We found that a lack of water delivery to pastures in the form of overwinter precipitation or diversion ditches increased the movements of sage-grouse to the interior of pastures. Although further investigation of water delivery impacts on chick survival are warrented, our initial findings regarding resource selection may explain recent declines in population growth at Long Valley.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2020

In situ observations of wave transformation and infragravity bore development across reef flats of varying geomorphology

The character and energetics of infragravity (IG, 25 s < period < 250 s) and very-low frequency (VLF, period > 250 s) waves over coral reef flats can enhance shoreline erosion or accretion, and also govern extreme shoreline events such as runup, overwash, and flooding on coral reef-lined coasts. Here we use in situ wave measurements collected along cross-reef transects at 7 sites on Pacific islands with varying reef geomorphologies to examine under what conditions IG waves occur and what factors enhance their irregularity. In general, a greater fraction of total wave energy was transferred to the IG band on reefs with steeper fore reef slopes and shallower reef flats. The IG wave amplitudes scaled with increasing water levels, but it was primarily at lower water levels when these waves became pitched onshore (negatively asymmetrical) and peaked (positively skewed). However, our results also highlight the importance of reef-flat width and slope as important morphological controls on IG waves, as the most asymmetric, bore-like, IG waves occurred on the wider reef flats, and the most skewed IG waves at the site with the steepest reef-flat. On the wider reef flats, IG wave-wave capture was observed during periods of large offshore wave forcing and enhanced VLF wave energy. Because similar IG wave motions over plane beaches enhance sea-swell (SS, period < 25 s) bore-merging in the surf zone, we posit that VLF waves over reef flats may facilitate IG bore merging, and this may lead to larger, more pitched-onshore bores at the shoreline. In addition, greater IG wave heights appear to support the transmission of larger secondary short-period waves over the reef flat, independent of overall water levels. As irregular IG waves may be strong drivers of cross-reef sediment transport as well as runup, understanding the conditions and reef geomorphologies that lead to low-frequency, energetic bores on reef flats is critical to forecasting how coral reef-lined coasts will respond to sea-level rise and climate change.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

Global methane budget 2000-2020

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH 4 ) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. CH 4 is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and both emissions and atmospheric concentrations of CH 4 have continued to increase since 2007 after a temporary pause. The relative importance of CH 4 emissions compared to those of CO 2 for temperature change is related to its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger radiative effect, and acceleration in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in quantifying the factors responsible for the observed atmospheric growth rate arise from diverse, geographically overlapping CH 4 sources and from the uncertain magnitude and temporal change in the destruction of CH 4 by short-lived and highly variable hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to improve, synthesise, and update the global CH 4 budget regularly and to stimulate new research on the methane cycle. Following Saunois et al. (2016, 2020), we present here the third version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal CH 4 budget, integrating results of top-down CH 4 emission estimates (based on in situ and Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) atmospheric observations and an ensemble of atmospheric inverse-model results) and bottom-up estimates (based on process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). We present a budget for the most recent 2010–2019 calendar decade (the latest period for which full data sets are available), for the previous decade of 2000–2009 and for the year 2020. The revision of the bottom-up budget in this 2025 edition benefits from important progress in estimating inland freshwater emissions, with better counting of emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. This budget also reduces double counting across freshwater and wetland emissions and, for the first time, includes an estimate of the potential double counting that may exist (average of 23 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ). Bottom-up approaches show that the combined wetland and inland freshwater emissions average 248 [159–369] Tg CH 4 yr −1 for the 2010–2019 decade. Natural fluxes are perturbed by human activities through climate, eutrophication, and land use. In this budget, we also estimate, for the first time, this anthropogenic component contributing to wetland and inland freshwater emissions. Newly available gridded products also allowed us to derive an almost complete latitudinal and regional budget based on bottom-up approaches. For the 2010–2019 decade, global CH 4 emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down) to be 575 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 553–586, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this amount, 369 Tg CH 4 yr −1 or ∼ 65 % is attributed to direct anthropogenic sources in the fossil, agriculture, and waste and anthropogenic biomass burning (range 350–391 Tg CH 4 yr −1 or 63 %–68 %). For the 2000–2009 period, the atmospheric inversions give a slightly lower total emission than for 2010–2019, by 32 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 9–40). The 2020 emission rate is the highest of the period and reaches 608 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 581–627), which is 12 % higher than the average emissions in the 2000s. Since 2012, global direct anthropogenic CH 4 emission trends have been tracking scenarios that assume no or minimal climate mitigation policies proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (shared socio-economic pathways SSP5 and SSP3). Bottom-up methods suggest 16 % (94 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) larger global emissions (669 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , range 512–849) than top-down inversion methods for the 2010–2019 period. The discrepancy between the bottom-up and the top-down budgets has been greatly reduced compared to the previous differences (167 and 156 Tg CH 4 yr −1 in Saunois et al. (2016, 2020) respectively), and for the first time uncertainties in bottom-up and top-down budgets overlap. Although differences have been reduced between inversions and bottom-up, the most important source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget is still attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and inland freshwaters. The tropospheric loss of methane, as the main contributor to methane lifetime, has been estimated at 563 [510–663] Tg CH 4 yr −1 based on chemistry–climate models. These values are slightly larger than for 2000–2009 due to the impact of the rise in atmospheric methane and remaining large uncertainty ( ∼ 25 %). The total sink of CH 4 is estimated at 633 [507–796] Tg CH 4 yr −1 by the bottom-up approaches and at 554 [550–567] Tg CH 4 yr −1 by top-down approaches. However, most of the top-down models use the same OH distribution, which introduces less uncertainty to the global budget than is likely justified. For 2010–2019, agriculture and waste contributed an estimated 228 [213–242] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 211 [195–231] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. Fossil fuel emissions contributed 115 [100–124] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 120 [117–125] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. Biomass and biofuel burning contributed 27 [26–27] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 28 [21–39] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. We identify five major priorities for improving the CH 4 budget: (i) producing a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting CH 4 based on a robust classification of different types of emitting ecosystems; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of CH 4 observations at local (e.g. FLUXNET-CH 4 measurements, urban-scale monitoring, satellite imagery with pointing capabilities) to regional scales (surface networks and global remote sensing measurements from satellites) to constrain both bottom-up models and atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) integration of 3D variational inversion systems using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane as well as information in the bottom-up inventories on anthropogenic super-emitters detected by remote sensing (mainly oil and gas sector but also coal, agriculture, and landfills) to improve source partitioning.

Earth System Science Data↗