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At least 1,225 records · Page 68Linked to original sources

USGS2007

Landslide hazards in the Seattle, Washington, area

The Seattle, Washington, area is known for its livability and its magnificent natural setting. The city and nearby communities are surrounded by an abundance of rivers and lakes and by the bays of Puget Sound. Two majestic mountain ranges, the Olympics and the Cascades, rim the region. These dramatic natural features are products of dynamic forces-landslides, earthquakes, tsunamis, glaciers, volcanoes, and floods. The same processes that formed this beautiful landscape pose hazards to the ever-growing population of the region. Landslides long have been a major cause of damage and destruction to people and property in the Seattle area.

Washington↗

USGS2026

Testing characteristic magnitude distributions in modern PSHA models

The characteristic magnitude distribution hypothesis predicts a higher rate of large earthquakes than a Gutenberg–Richter extrapolation of the small‐earthquake rate would imply. Characteristic magnitude distributions have been commonly applied to faults in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and in modern models they can emerge from the way short‐term seismicity constraints are combined with long‐term geologic and geodetic constraints. We test the characteristic magnitude distribution hypothesis by comparing the fault‐based magnitude distributions from the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23) in the Western United States with observed seismicity over the past 93 yr. We find that observed magnitude distributions fall outside the model‐predicted confidence bounds in regions where NSHM23 produces characteristic magnitude distributions: in these regions, the model predicts higher rates of large earthquakes than are observed. An analysis of the earlier California model (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3) also reveals discrepancies between the modeled and observed magnitude distributions. In addition, we find that observed magnitude distributions near modeled faults are not significantly different from those in background regions. These results challenge the prevalence of characteristic magnitude distributions in fault‐based seismic hazard models and call for a reassessment of how disparate data sets are integrated in PSHA.

western United States↗

USGS2021

The Traverse Ridge paleoseismic site and ruptures crossing the boundary between the Provo and Salt Lake City segments of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah, United States

How structural segment boundaries modulate earthquake behavior is an important scientific and societal question, especially for the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) where urban areas lie along multiple fault segments. The extent to which segment boundaries arrest ruptures, host moderate magnitude earthquakes, or transmit ruptures to adjacent fault segments is critical for understanding seismic hazard. To help address this outstanding issue, we conducted a paleoseismic investigation at the Traverse Ridge paleoseismic site (TR site) along the ∼7-km-long Fort Canyon segment boundary, which links the Provo (59 km) and Salt Lake City (40 km) segments of the WFZ. At the TR site, we logged two trenches which were cut across sub-parallel traces of the fault, separated by ∼175 m. Evidence from these exposures leads us to infer that at least 3 to 4 earthquakes have ruptured across the segment boundary in the Holocene. Radiocarbon dating of soil material developed below and above fault scarp colluvial packages and within a filled fissure constrains the age of the events. The most recent event ruptured the southern fault trace between 0.2 and 0.4 ka, the penultimate event ruptured the northern fault trace between 0.6 and 3.4 ka, and two prior events occurred between 1.4 and 6.2 ka (on the southern fault trace) and 7.2 and 8.1 ka (northern fault trace). Colluvial wedge heights of these events ranged from 0.7 to 1.2 m, indicating the segment boundary experiences surface ruptures with more than 1 m of vertical displacement. Given these estimates, we infer that these events were greater than Mw 6.7, with rupture extending across the entire segment boundary and portions of one or both adjacent fault segments. The Holocene recurrence of events at the TR site is lower than the closest paleoseismic sites at the adjacent fault segment endpoints. The contrasts in recurrence rates observed within 15 km of the Fort Canyon fault segment boundary may be explained conceptually by a leaky segment boundary model which permits spillover events, ruptures centered on the segment boundary, and segmented ruptures. The TR site demonstrates the utility of paleoseismology within segment boundaries which, through corroboration of displacement data, can demonstrate rupture connectivity between fault segments and test the validity of rupture models.

Utah↗

USGS2006

Earthquakes triggered by silent slip events on Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii

Slow-slip events, or ‘silent earthquakes’, have recently been discovered in a number of subduction zones including the Nankai trough 1, 2, 3 in Japan, Cascadia 4, 5 , and Guerrero 6 in Mexico, but the depths of these events have been difficult to determine from surface deformation measurements. Although it is assumed that these silent earthquakes are located along the plate megathrust, this has not been proved. Slow slip in some subduction zones is associated with non-volcanic tremor 7, 8 , but tremor is difficult to locate and may be distributed over a broad depth range 9 . Except for some events on the San Andreas fault 10 , slow-slip events have not yet been associated with high-frequency earthquakes, which are easily located. Here we report on swarms of high-frequency earthquakes that accompany otherwise silent slips on K ī lauea volcano, Hawaii. For the most energetic event, in January 2005, the slow slip began before the increase in seismicity. The temporal evolution of earthquakes is well explained by increased stressing caused by slow slip, implying that the earthquakes are triggered. The earthquakes, located at depths of 7–8   km, constrain the slow slip to be at comparable depths, because they must fall in zones of positive Coulomb stress change. Triggered earthquakes accompanying slow-slip events elsewhere might go undetected if background seismicity rates are low. Detection of such events would help constrain the depth of slow slip, and could lead to a method for quantifying the increased hazard during slow-slip events, because triggered events have the potential to grow into destructive earthquakes.

Nature↗

USGS2010

Seismic hazard of the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault in Haiti inferred from palaeoseismology

The Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone is recognized as one of the primary plate-bounding fault systems in Haiti. The strike-slip fault runs adjacent to the city of Port-au-Prince and was initially thought to be the source of the 12 January 2010, M w 7.0 earthquake. Haiti experienced significant earthquakes in 1751 and 1770 (refsA, 3, 4, 5), but the role of the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone in these earthquakes is poorly known. We use satellite imagery, aerial photography, light detection and ranging (LIDAR) and field investigations to document Quaternary activity on the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault. We report late Quaternary, left-lateral offsets of up to 160m, and a set of small offsets ranging from 1.3 to 3.3m that we associate with one of the eighteenth century earthquakes. The size of the small offsets implies that the historical earthquake was larger than M w 7.0, but probably smaller than M w 7.6. We found no significant surface rupture associated with the 2010 earthquake. The lack of surface rupture, coupled with other seismologic, geologic and geodetic observations, suggests that little, if any, accumulated strain was released on the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault in the 2010 earthquake. These results confirm that the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault remains a significant seismic hazard. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS2026

Rapid characterization of the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka, Russia earthquake

The 29 July 2025 M w 8.8 Kamchatka, Russia, earthquake was the sixth largest instrumentally recorded earthquake. This event was seismically well observed at regional and teleseismic distances, but publicly available near‐source data were sparse at the time of the event, presenting unique challenges for rapid source and impact characterization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center provides global real‐time monitoring for earthquakes, including rapid response information products that estimate source characteristics, shaking, and the resulting impacts. We describe the USGS rapid response earthquake information products following the Kamchatka event and discuss their implications for ongoing hazards in the region. We describe potential improvements to our response workflows motivated by this event, including more rapid constraints on source geometries and the automated selection of fault geometries for finite‐fault inversions. The rapid response products together support the interpretation of a unilateral southwestward rupture with significant slip on the southwestern end of the rupture extent. The M w 8.8–9.0 event in 1952, which ruptured a comparable extent of the Kuril–Kamchatka subduction interface, has many similarities to the 2025 rupture. This illustrates that slip deficits may remain following great earthquakes and highlights the usefulness of comparative studies between historic and modern events.

Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone↗

USGS2023

A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards

Modern civilization has no collective experience with possible wide-ranging effects from a medium-sized asteroid impactor. Currently, modeling efforts that predict initial effects from a meteor impact or airburst provide needed information for initial preparation and evacuation plans, but longer-term cascading hazards are not typically considered. However, more common natural disasters, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, wildfires, dust storms, and hurricanes, are likely analogs that can provide the scope and scale of these potential effects. These events, especially the larger events with cascading effects, are key for understanding the scope and complexity of mitigation, relief, and recovery efforts for a medium-sized asteroid impact event. This paper reviews the initial and cascading effects of these natural hazards, describes the state of the art for modeling these hazards, and discusses the relevance of these hazards to expected long-term effects of an asteroid impact. Emergency managers, resource managers and planners, and research scientists involved in mitigation and recovery efforts would likely derive significant benefit from a framework linking multiple hazard models to provide a seamless sequence of related forecasts.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2026

Ground-motion simulations for the 2024 Mw 4.8 Tewksbury, New Jersey, earthquake

Ground-motion simulations of notable earthquakes in the central and eastern United States are limited and typically assume one-dimensional (1D) Earth structure. In this study, we use a three-dimensional (3D) seismic velocity model to better constrain the depth and focal mechanism of the April 5th, 2024, moment magnitude 4.8 Tewksbury earthquake and investigate the spatial variability of earthquake ground motions and the effects of nearby sedimentary basins. We perform earthquake ground-motion simulations up to 0.5 Hz using the 3D spectral-element wave-propagation solver SPECFEM3D over a region 280-km wide by 260-km long by 77-km deep. Topography and subsurface geophysical structure are assigned using the U.S. Geological Survey National Crustal Model with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 200 m/s. We use earthquake time series from 13 broadband seismic stations in the region that have a uniform azimuthal distribution and epicentral distances ranging from 76 to 131 km to compare with synthetics and explore the effects of 1D versus 3D seismic structure on focal mechanism and depth solutions. Ground-motion intensity metrics are also presented relative to the NGA-East ground-motion models (GMMs) currently used in seismic hazard assessments for the region. We find that the 3D model, which reveals a wide spatial variability of period-dependent ground motions, yields better predictions of earthquake ground motions relative to the 1D model and the NGA-East ergodic ground-motion model, with 76 percent reduction of residual variance in observed ground motions averaged over 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-second periods. Use of the 3D model to solve for a focal mechanism yields a shallower focal depth at 4 km and a shallower east-dipping focal plane relative to the U.S. Geological Survey regional moment tensor and Global Centroid Moment Tensor. Our study demonstrates that use of 3D seismic velocity models can improve estimates of earthquake focal mechanisms, ground motions, and seismic hazard.

New Jersey↗

USGS2009

Reassessment of probabilistic seismic hazard in the Marmara region

In 1999, the eastern coastline of the Marmara region (Turkey) witnessed increased seismic activity on the North Anatolian fault (NAF) system with two damaging earthquakes (M 7.4 Kocaeli and M 7.2 D??zce) that occurred almost three months apart. These events have reduced stress on the western segment of the NAF where it continues under the Marmara Sea. The undersea fault segments have been recently explored using bathymetric and reflection surveys. These recent findings helped scientists to understand the seismotectonic environment of the Marmara basin, which has remained a perplexing tectonic domain. On the basis of collected new data, seismic hazard of the Marmara region is reassessed using a probabilistic approach. Two different earthquake source models: (1) the smoothed-gridded seismicity model and (2) fault model and alternate magnitude-frequency relations, Gutenberg-Richter and characteristic, were used with local and imported ground-motion-prediction equations. Regional exposure is computed and quantified on a set of hazard maps that provide peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0 sec on uniform firm-rock site condition (760 m=sec average shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m). These acceleration levels were computed for ground motions having 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yr, corresponding to return periods of about 2475 and 475 yr, respectively. The maximum PGA computed (at rock site) is 1.5g along the fault segments of the NAF zone extending into the Marmara Sea. The new maps generally show 10% to 15% increase for PGA, 0.2 and 1.0 sec spectral acceleration values across much of Marmara compared to previous regional hazard maps. Hazard curves and smooth design spectra for three site conditions: rock, soil, and soft-soil are provided for the Istanbul metropolitan area as possible tools in future risk estimates.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2013

Ground motions recorded in Rome during the April 2009 L’Aquila seismic sequence: site response and comparison with ground‐motion predictions based on a global dataset

The mainshock and moderate‐magnitude aftershocks of the 6 April 2009 M 6.3 L’Aquila seismic sequence, about 90 km northeast of Rome, provided the first earthquake ground‐motion recordings in the urban area of Rome. Before those recordings were obtained, the assessments of the seismic hazard in Rome were based on intensity observations and theoretical considerations. The L’Aquila recordings offer an unprecedented opportunity to calibrate the city response to central Apennine earthquakes—earthquakes that have been responsible for the largest damage to Rome in historical times. Using the data recorded in Rome in April 2009, we show that (1) published theoretical predictions of a 1 s resonance in the Tiber valley are confirmed by observations showing a significant amplitude increase in response spectra at that period, (2) the empirical soil‐transfer functions inferred from spectral ratios are satisfactorily fit through 1D models using the available geological, geophysical, and laboratory data, but local variability can be large for individual events, (3) response spectra for the motions recorded in Rome from the L’Aquila earthquakes are significantly amplified in the radial component at periods near 1 s, even at a firm site on volcanic rocks, and (4) short‐period response spectra are smaller than expected when compared to ground‐motion predictions from equations based on a global dataset, whereas the observed response spectra are higher than expected for periods near 1 s.

Rome↗

USGS2007

Relatively simple through-going fault planes at large-earthquake depth may be concealed by the surface complexity of strike-slip faults

At the surface, strike-slip fault stepovers, including abrupt fault bends, are typically regions of complex, often disconnected faults. This complexity has traditionally led geologists studying the hazard of active faults to consider such stepovers as important fault segment boundaries, and to give lower weight to earthquake scenarios that involve rupture through the stepover zone. However, recent geological and geophysical studies of several stepover zones along the San Andreas fault system in California have revealed that the complex nature of the fault zone at the surface masks a much simpler and direct connection at depths associated with large earthquakes (greater than 5 km). In turn, the simplicity of the connection suggests that a stepover zone would provide less of an impediment to through-going rupture in a large earthquake, so that the role of stepovers as segment boundaries has probably been overemphasized. However, counter-examples of fault complexity at depth associated with surface stepovers are known, so the role of stepovers in fault rupture behaviour must be carefully established in each case.

California↗

USGS2011

Space geodetic data improve seismic hazard assessment in California: Workshop on incorporating geodetic surface deformation data Into UCERF3; Pomona, California, 1–2 April 2010

A workshop was held to begin scientific consideration of how to incorporate space geodetic constraints on strain rates and fault slip rates into the next generation Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3), due to be completed in mid-2012. Principal outcomes of the meeting were (1) an assessment of secure science ready for UCERF3 applications within the next year, and (2) an agenda of new research objectives for the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and others in support of UCERF3 and related probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA). A number of goals potentially achievable within a year were identified, including (1) slip rate and fault locking depth estimates, with uncertainties or ranges, for all major and some minor faults of the extended San Andreas system; (2) strain rate estimates or bounds on rates for selected regions lying off the major faults of the San Andreas system; and (3) corrections or bounds on perturbing effects of postseismic deformation and elastic modulus heterogeneities on the observed Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity field (needed as input to models for estimating fault slip and strain rates in goals 1 and 2 above).

California↗

USGS2020

Segmentation and supercycles: A catalog of earthquake rupture patterns from the Sumatran Sunda Megathrust and other well-studied faults worldwide

After more than 100 years of earthquake research, earthquake forecasting, which relies on knowledge of past fault rupture patterns, has become the foundation for societal defense against seismic natural disasters. A concept that has come into focus more recently is that rupture segmentation and cyclicity can be complex, and that a characteristic earthquake model is too simple to adequately describe much of fault behavior. Nevertheless, recognizable patterns in earthquake recurrence emerge from long, high resolution, spatially distributed chronologies. Researchers now seek to discover the maximum, minimum, and typical rupture areas; the distribution, variability, and spatial applicability of recurrence intervals; and patterns of earthquake clustering in space and time. The term “supercycle” has been used to describe repeating longer periods of elastic strain accumulation and release that involve multiple fault ruptures. However, this term has become very broadly applied, lumping together several distinct phenomena that likely have disparate underlying causes. We divide earthquake cycle behavior into four major classes that have different implications for seismic hazard and fault mechanics: 1) quasi-periodic similar ruptures, 2) clustered similar ruptures, 3) clustered complementary ruptures/rupture cascades, and 4) superimposed cycles. “Segmentation” is likewise an ambiguous term; we identify “master segments” and “asperities” as defined by barriers to fault rupture. These barriers may be persistent (rarely or never traversed), frequent (occasionally traversed), or ephemeral (changing location from cycle to cycle). We compile a catalog of the historical and paleoseismic evidence that currently exists for each of these types of behavior on major well-studied faults worldwide. Due to the unique level of paleoseismic and paleogeodetic detail provided by the coral microatoll technique, the Sumatran Sunda megathrust provides one of the most complete records over multiple earthquake rupture cycles. Long historical records of earthquakes along the South American and Japanese subduction zones are also vital contributors to our catalog, along with additional data compiled from subduction zones in Cascadia, Alaska, and Middle America, as well as the North Anatolian and Dead Sea strike-slip faults in the Middle East. We find that persistent and frequent barriers, rupture cascades, superimposed cycles, and quasi-periodic similar ruptures are common features of most major faults. Clustered similar ruptures do not appear to be common, but broad overlap zones between neighboring segments do occur. Barrier regions accommodate slip through reduced interseismic coupling, slow slip events, and/or smaller more localized ruptures, and are frequently associated with structural features such as subducting seafloor relief or fault trace discontinuities. This catalog of observations provides a basis for exploring and modeling root causes of rupture segmentation and cycle behavior. We expect that researchers will recognize similar behavior styles on other major faults around the world.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2024

Are field observations of surface rupture useful? An example from the 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcık, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake

Field investigations have long been an important component of the scientific response to surface‐faulting earthquakes. However, in light of advances in remote data and models, the question arises whether field‐based observations of surface rupture remain useful for understanding rupture processes and seismic hazards. We approach this question using a field‐based study of the central 2023 M w 7.8 Pazarcık, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake rupture, at the intersection of the east Anatolian fault (EAF) and Narlı fault. Our field observations include the surface rupture expression and extent of the central EAF and northernmost Narlı fault in generally forested and steep terrain and 68 measurements of left‐lateral surface displacement. These data improve our understanding of the Pazarcık rupture complexity, resolve the surface geometry of the Narlı fault–EAF connection, and exhibit a clear (>2 m) change in surface displacement across this intersection zone that confirms remote‐based coseismic slip models. Our study shows that focusing field efforts in areas of obscured or low‐resolution remote data can yield essential data for refining rupture extent, documenting perishable on‐fault displacement, and improving postearthquake situational awareness. A comparison of similarly large‐magnitude continental surface‐rupturing earthquakes indicates that displacement uncertainties relate to a complex set of factors, including measurement methods, rupture complexity, and displacement magnitude. Our study validates the need for postearthquake field observations, which, when driven by clear motivating questions and knowledge of methodological strengths and limitations, provide high‐resolution rupture data that complement remote‐based models.

Pazarcık↗

USGS2014

Implementation of NGA-West2 ground motion models in the 2014 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps

The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHMs) have been an important component of seismic design regulations in the United States for the past several decades. These maps present earthquake ground shaking intensities at specified probabilities of being exceeded over a 50-year time period. The previous version of the NSHMs was developed in 2008; during 2012 and 2013, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey have been updating the maps based on their assessment of the “best available science,” resulting in the 2014 NSHMs. The update includes modifications to the seismic source models and the ground motion models (GMMs) for sites across the conterminous United States. This paper focuses on updates in the Western United States (WUS) due to the use of new GMMs for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions developed by the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA-West2) project. Individual GMMs, their weighted combination, and their impact on the hazard maps relative to 2008 are discussed. In general, the combined effects of lower medians and increased standard deviations in the new GMMs have caused only small changes, within 5–20%, in the probabilistic ground motions for most sites across the WUS compared to the 2008 NSHMs.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2013

Improving tsunami resiliency: California's Tsunami Policy Working Group

California has established a Tsunami Policy Working Group to facilitate development of policy recommendations for tsunami hazard mitigation. The Tsunami Policy Working Group brings together government and industry specialists from diverse fields including tsunami, seismic, and flood hazards, local and regional planning, structural engineering, natural hazard policy, and coastal engineering. The group is acting on findings from two parallel efforts: The USGS SAFRR Tsunami Scenario project, a comprehensive impact analysis of a large credible tsunami originating from an M 9.1 earthquake in the Aleutian Islands Subduction Zone striking California’s coastline, and the State’s Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. The unique dual-track approach provides a comprehensive assessment of vulnerability and risk within which the policy group can identify gaps and issues in current tsunami hazard mitigation and risk reduction, make recommendations that will help eliminate these impediments, and provide advice that will assist development and implementation of effective tsunami hazard risk communication products to improve community resiliency.

California↗

USGS1999

A physically-based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities

A physically-motivated model for earthquake recurrence based on the Brownian relaxation oscillator is introduced. The renewal process defining this point process model can be described by the steady rise of a state variable from the ground state to failure threshold as modulated by Brownian motion. Failure times in this model follow the Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution, which is specified by the mean time to failure, μ, and the aperiodicity of the mean, α (equivalent to the familiar coefficient of variation). Analysis of 37 series of recurrent earthquakes, M -0.7 to 9.2, suggests a provisional generic value of α = 0.5. For this value of α, the hazard function (instantaneous failure rate of survivors) exceeds the mean rate for times > μ⁄2, and is ~ ~ 2 ⁄ μ for all times > μ. Application of this model to the next M 6 earthquake on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California suggests that the annual probability of the earthquake is between 1:10 and 1:13.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Reflections on a trio of North American earthquakes in 1925

In 1925, three moderately large damaging earthquakes occurred in North America over four months: the 28 February (local time; LT) M 6.2 Charlevoix, 27 June (LT) M 6.6 Montana, and 29 June M 6.5 Santa Barbara earthquakes. The centennial anniversaries of these events motivated this retrospective consideration focused on the ground motions generated by the three events, including a reconsideration of early intensity assignments for the Montana earthquake. At the time, these three earthquakes appeared to support the arguments of some geologists who downplayed the severity of seismic hazard in southern California relative to other parts of the country. Some of the arguments advanced at that time, for example that Los Angeles “has the least to fear from ‘Acts of God’ of any city under the American flag,” ( Hill, 1928 ) sound naïve if not laughable now, but a comparison of well‐constrained shaking distributions for the three earthquakes reveals the dramatic difference in wave propagation efficiency in western versus eastern North America (ENAM), which leads to moderate ENAM events being felt to much larger distances. At M 6.2, the 1925 Charlevoix earthquake was a notably large event in ENAM. This earthquake was the largest event in eastern Canada since 1870 and caused damage in the epicentral region in addition to towns as far away as 200 km, with felt shaking extending over 1000 km. In contrast, felt shaking from the Santa Barbara earthquake barely extended beyond ∼200 km. Compiling published intensity distributions for larger ENAM earthquakes, we show that perceptible earthquake shaking is not uncommon in ENAM over century time scales, but experience with weakly felt shaking may incline people to downplay potential earthquake risk.

California, Montana, Quebec↗