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A probabilistic method for constructing wave time-series at inshore locations using model scenarios

Continuous time-series of wave characteristics (height, period, and direction) are constructed using a base set of model scenarios and simple probabilistic methods. This approach utilizes an archive of computationally intensive, highly spatially resolved numerical wave model output to develop time-series of historical or future wave conditions without performing additional, continuous numerical simulations. The archive of model output contains wave simulations from a set of model scenarios derived from an offshore wave climatology. Time-series of wave height, period, direction, and associated uncertainties are constructed at locations included in the numerical model domain. The confidence limits are derived using statistical variability of oceanographic parameters contained in the wave model scenarios. The method was applied to a region in the northern Gulf of Mexico and assessed using wave observations at 12 m and 30 m water depths. Prediction skill for significant wave height is 0.58 and 0.67 at the 12 m and 30 m locations, respectively, with similar performance for wave period and direction. The skill of this simplified, probabilistic time-series construction method is comparable to existing large-scale, high-fidelity operational wave models but provides higher spatial resolution output at low computational expense. The constructed time-series can be developed to support a variety of applications including climate studies and other situations where a comprehensive survey of wave impacts on the coastal area is of interest.

Coastal Engineering↗

Evaluation of wave runup predictions from numerical and parametric models

Wave runup during storms is a primary driver of coastal evolution, including shoreline and dune erosion and barrier island overwash. Runup and its components, setup and swash, can be predicted from a parameterized model that was developed by comparing runup observations to offshore wave height, wave period, and local beach slope. Because observations during extreme storms are often unavailable, a numerical model is used to simulate the storm-driven runup to compare to the parameterized model and then develop an approach to improve the accuracy of the parameterization. Numerically simulated and parameterized runup were compared to observations to evaluate model accuracies. The analysis demonstrated that setup was accurately predicted by both the parameterized model and numerical simulations. Infragravity swash heights were most accurately predicted by the parameterized model. The numerical model suffered from bias and gain errors that depended on whether a one-dimensional or two-dimensional spatial domain was used. Nonetheless, all of the predictions were significantly correlated to the observations, implying that the systematic errors can be corrected. The numerical simulations did not resolve the incident-band swash motions, as expected, and the parameterized model performed best at predicting incident-band swash heights. An assimilated prediction using a weighted average of the parameterized model and the numerical simulations resulted in a reduction in prediction error variance. Finally, the numerical simulations were extended to include storm conditions that have not been previously observed. These results indicated that the parameterized predictions of setup may need modification for extreme conditions; numerical simulations can be used to extend the validity of the parameterized predictions of infragravity swash; and numerical simulations systematically underpredict incident swash, which is relatively unimportant under extreme conditions.

Coastal Engineering↗

Wave attenuation in the shallows of San Francisco Bay

Waves propagating over broad, gently-sloped shallows decrease in height due to frictional dissipation at the bed. We quantified wave-height evolution across 7 km of mudflat in San Pablo Bay (northern San Francisco Bay), an environment where tidal mixing prevents the formation of fluid mud. Wave height was measured along a cross shore transect (elevation range−2mto+0.45mMLLW) in winter 2011 and summer 2012. Wave height decreased more than 50% across the transect. The exponential decay coefficient λ was inversely related to depth squared (λ=6×10 −4 h −2 ). The physical roughness length scale k b , estimated from near-bed turbulence measurements, was 3.5×10 −3 m in winter and 1.1×10 −2 m in summer. Estimated wave friction factor f w determined from wave-height data suggests that bottom friction dominates dissipation at high Re w but not at low Re w . Predictions of near-shore wave height based on offshore wave height and a rough formulation for f w were quite accurate, with errors about half as great as those based on the smooth formulation for f w . Researchers often assume that the wave boundary layer is smooth for settings with fine-grained sediments. At this site, use of a smooth f w results in an underestimate of wave shear stress by a factor of 2 for typical waves and as much as 5 for more energetic waves. It also inadequately captures the effectiveness of the mudflats in protecting the shoreline through wave attenuation.

California↗

A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

Chandeleur Islands↗

The influence of shelf bathymetry and beach topography on extreme total water levels: Linking large-scale changes of the wave climate to local coastal hazards

Total water levels (TWLs) at the coast are driven by a combination of deterministic (e.g., tides) and stochastic (e.g., waves, storm surge, and sea level anomalies) processes. The contribution of each process to TWLs varies depending on regional differences in climate and framework geology, as well as local-scale variations in beach morphology, coastal orientation, and shelf bathymetry. Large-scale changes to the climate altering the frequency, direction, and intensity of storms, may therefore propagate to the nearshore differently, amplifying or suppressing local coastal hazards and changing the exposure of coastal communities to extreme TWLs. This study investigates the hydrodynamic and geomorphologic factors controlling local TWLs along high-energy United States coastlines where wave-influences dominate TWLs. Three study sites in the states of Washington, Oregon, and California are chosen to explore how regional and local differences in beach topography and wave transformation over shelf bathymetry drives variations in the magnitude and impacts of extreme TWLs. Results indicate that TWLs are most influenced by wave transformation processes in locations with steep beach slopes (which drive larger relative contributions of wave runup) and complex offshore bathymetry, while beach topography influences the severity of coastal impacts. Once the relative morphologic controls on TWLs are better understood, hypothetical future climate scenarios are explored to assess how changes to the average deepwater wave climate (height, period, and direction) may alter local TWLs when compared to estimates of likely sea level rise and future coastal management strategies. Changes to the wave climate are found to be as detrimental to the coastline as sea level rise in some locations, where small variations of the TWL drive large, nonlinear changes in hours of impact to the backshore beach. Overall, this study develops an approach for quantifying the range of hydrodynamic and morphologic controls on the magnitude of TWLs which will ultimately better prepare coastal communities for uncertain changes to the global climate.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

The importance of explicitly modelling sea-swell waves for runup on reef-lined coasts

The importance of explicitly modelling sea-swell waves for runup was examined using a 2D XBeach short wave-averaged (surfbeat, “XB-SB”) and a wave-resolving (non-hydrostatic, “XB-NH”) model of Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands. Field observations on water levels, wave heights, and wave runup were used to drive and evaluate both models, which were subsequently used to determine the effect of sea-level rise and extreme wave conditions on wave runup and its components. Results show that specifically modelling the sea-swell component (using XB-NH) provides a better approximation of the observed runup than XB-SB (which only models the time-variation of the sea-swell wave height), despite good model performance of both models on reef flat water levels and wave heights. XB-SB has a bias of −0.108 – 0.057 m and scatter index of 0.083–0.639, whereas XB-NH has bias of −0.132 – 0.055 m and 0.122–0.490, respectively. However, both models under-predict runup peaks. The difference between XB-SB and XB-NH increases for more extreme wave events and higher sea levels, as XB-NH resolves individual waves and therefore captures SS-wave motions in runup. However, for even larger forcing conditions with offshore wave heights of 6 m, the island is flooded in both XB-SB and XB-NH computations, regardless the sea-swell wave energy contribution. In such cases XB-SB would be adequate to model flooding depths and extents on the island while requiring 4–5 times less computational effort.

Roi-Namur Island↗

Hotspot dune erosion on an intermediate beach

A large, low pressure Nor’easter storm and Hurricane Joaquin contributed to multiple weeks of sustained, elevated wave and water level conditions along the southeastern Atlantic coast of the United States in Fall 2015. Sea level anomalies in excess of 1 m and offshore wave heights of up to 4 m were recorded during these storms, as observed at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Field Research Facility in Duck, NC, USA. In response to these energetic oceanographic conditions, there were highly variable morphologic changes to the dune over short spatial scales (<km) which included a range of responses from vertical dune scarping to no measureable response. The portion of the study area with the largest dune erosion occurred at a location fronted by an abnormally deep nearshore bathymetric feature, which altered surf-zone waves and hydrodynamics. The pre-storm beach and dune topography also varied throughout the study area, additionally influencing the frequency of dune collision and contributing to the spatially variable erosion patterns. This work uses field datasets and numerical modeling tools to investigate the causation of hotspot dune erosion at the Field Research Facility. Three different numerical models were tested against the available data in order to assess model skill at resolving complex spatial dune erosion patterns. The three models successfully reproduce the general spatial trends in alongshore variable responses, although not necessarily the details of profile response or net erosion magnitude. Analysis of the model outputs, in conjunction with the available field data, suggests that the observed hotspot dune erosion is related to a complex combination of both topographic and bathymetric controls on the processes driving dune erosion. Therefore, the most simplistic model tested, which only accounts for alongshore variations in topographic profile details, can only predict hotspot dune erosion in locations where steep beach and/or dune topography is the primary control on collisional dune impacts. The higher fidelity models , which account for feedback effects from subaqueous morphology, are similarly able to predict the locations of maximum hotspot erosion, but are sensitive to beach over-steepening and/or errors in wave runup calculations that can lead to over-prediction of simulated dune erosion. This work highlights that numerous existing tools are capable of identifying the foredune regions at most risk from hotspot erosion, as well as the need for continued research to improve representation of all relevant intra-storm morphodynamic processes.

Coastal Engineering↗

The influence of submerged coastal structures on nearshore flows and wave runup

Engineered and natural submerged coastal structures (e.g., submerged breakwaters and reefs) modify incident wave fields and thus can alter hydrodynamic processes adjacent to coastlines. Although submerged structures are generally assumed to promote beach protection by dissipating waves offshore and creating sheltered conditions in their lee, their interaction with waves can result in mean wave-driven circulation patterns that may either promote shoreline accretion or erosion. Here, we analyse the mean flow patterns and shoreline water levels (wave runup) in the lee of idealised impermeable submerged structures with a phase-resolved nonhydrostatic numerical model. Waves propagating over submerged structures can drive either a 2-cell mean (wave-averaged) circulation, which is characterised by diverging flows behind the structure and at the shoreline, or 4-cell circulation, with converging flows at the shoreline and diverging flows in the immediate lee of the structure. The numerical results show that the mode of circulation can be predicted with a set of relationships depending on the incoming wave heights, the structure crest level, and distance to the shoreline (or structure depth). Qualitative agreement between the mean flow and proxies for the sediment transport using an energetics approach suggest that the mean flow can be a robust proxy for inferring sediment transport patterns. For the cases considered, the submerged structures had a minimal influence on shoreline wave setup and wave runup despite the wave energy dissipation by the structures due to alongshore wave energy fluxes in the lee. Consequently, these results suggest that the coastal protection provided by the range of impermeable submerged structures we modelled is primarily due to their capacity to promote beach accretion.

Coastal Engineering↗

Remotely sensed short-crested breaking waves in a laboratory directional wave basin

Short-crested breaking waves that result from directionally spread wave conditions dissipate energy and generate turbulence within the surf zone, altering sediment transport processes, wave runup, and forces on structures. Additionally, vertical vorticity generated near crest ends during breaking, which depends on the gradient in wave height along a crest, may enhance nearshore dispersion of pollutants, nutrients, and larvae. Although directionally spread irregular wave fields are ubiquitous on ocean and large lake coastlines, the dependence of short-crested breaking wave characteristics (including the along-crest length and number of crest ends) on offshore wave conditions is not well established. To assess this relationship, laboratory experiments with alongshore-uniform barred bathymetry were performed in a large-scale directional wave basin. A three-dimensional scanning lidar, trinocular camera stereo processing methods, and in situ measurements were used to study short-crested wave field breaking characteristics in the laboratory, yielding a dataset with dense spatio-temporal coverage relative to prior laboratory or field measurements. Wave height estimates are similar for remotely sensed and in situ observations, except in the outer surf zone where plunging breaking occurred. Directional wave properties estimated with an array of in situ or remotely sensed sea-surface elevation estimates are similar and yield smaller directional spreads than single-point colocated pressure and velocity based in situ estimates when waves are less directionally spread. Using a breaking crest identification procedure combining visible imagery and stereo sea-surface elevation, we find that the average along-crest length of breaking waves decreases and the average number of crest ends increases with increasing directional spread. Relative to observations, a parameterized relationship between directional spread and crest characteristics based on theory for non-breaking, refracting waves generally over-estimates breaking crest lengths and is similar to or underestimates the total number of crest ends observed in the surf zone. The wave-field-dependent breaking-wave characteristics examined in the laboratory with remote sensing techniques can inform future investigations of depth-limited short-crested wave breaking and resulting surfzone eddy processes.

Coastal Engineering↗

Skill assessment of a total water level and coastal change forecast during the landfall of a hurricane

The Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast (TWL&CC Forecast) provides coastal communities with 6-day notice of potential elevated water levels and coastal change (i.e., dune erosion, overwash, or inundation) on sandy beaches that threatens safety, infrastructure, or resources. This continuously operating model provides hourly information for select regions along U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean coastlines. The objective of this work is to assess the skill of forecasts during a period of elevated water levels along the coasts of North Carolina (NC) and South Carolina, USA caused by Hurricane Isaias in August 2020, using a combination of observations and model hindcasts. Water levels and waves were observed throughout the storm at three locations near Wrightsville Beach, NC, which provided information to assess forecast skill; a wave buoy offshore, a tide gage at a local pier, and a pressure sensor deployed at the pier. In addition to observations, the non-hydrostatic phase-resolving model SWASH (Simulating WAves till SHore) was forced with hourly wave energy spectra derived from a coupled Delft3D-SWAN simulation during the peak of Isaias, to complement observations by computing nearshore wave height and wave-induced setup and runup at the shoreline. During the storm peak, SWASH-simulated water levels at the sensor position were comparable to those at the maximum landward extent (bias = −0.05 m; gain = 0.26; r 2 = 0.99), suggesting that observations at the USGS sensor location were a useful proxy for total water level (TWL; sum of tide, surge and wave runup) at the shoreline that are predicted by the TWL&CC Forecast. The TWL forecast at Wrightsville Beach was consistent with observations from the USGS sensor (bias = −0.38 m and −0.74 m, scatter index = 0.22 and 0.28 for the two forecast model grids considered, respectively; weighted regression considering model uncertainty explained 95 percent of variability in observed TWL). Observed TWL was within the confidence interval of the TWL&CC Forecast for the 5 h at the storm peak. Forecast mean water levels (MWL; sum of tide, surge and wave setup) and tide gage observations were also consistent (bias = 0.07 m and 0.02 m for the forecast model grids; scatter index = 0.46; r 2 = 0.80). Forecast MWL at the storm peak was within 0.06 m of the observed MWL from the tide gage for both sites. In the region where Isaias made landfall, eight additional pressure sensors were compared to the peak TWL forecast (bias = 0.14 m; scatter index = 0.18). Forecast TWL explained 90 percent of observed variability in TWL when considering uncertainty of the forecast with a weighted regression. The results demonstrate that wave-driven water levels contributed a significant portion of the forecast TWL during Isaias (52 percent during the three peak hours of the storm), and that TWL were represented using the forecast model. Mean absolute error of the coastal change forecast and observed overwash is 0.4 and 0.14 for the two forecast model grids considered. The skill demonstrated by this computationally efficient method indicates that the forecasting system can provide fast and reliable predictions of TWL across hundreds of km of coastline at sub-km resolution, days to hours in advance of when storms threaten coastal regions.

Coastal Engineering↗

Wave- and tidally-driven flow and sediment flux across a fringing coral reef: Southern Molokai, Hawaii

The fringing coral reef off the south coast of Molokai, Hawaii is currently being studied as part of a US Geological Survey (USGS) multi-disciplinary project that focuses on geologic and oceanographic processes that affect coral reef systems. For this investigation, four instrument packages were deployed across the fringing coral reef during the summer of 2001 to understand the processes governing fine-grained terrestrial sediment suspension on the shallow reef flat (h=1m) and its advection across the reef crest and onto the deeper fore reef. The time-series measurements suggest the following conceptual model of water and fine-grained sediment transport across the reef: Relatively cool, clear water flows up onto the reef flat during flooding tides. At high tide, more deep-water wave energy is able to propagate onto the reef flat and larger Trade wind-driven waves can develop on the reef flat, thereby increasing sediment suspension. Trade wind-driven surface currents and wave breaking at the reef crest cause setup of water on the reef flat, further increasing the water depth and enhancing the development of depth-limited waves and sediment suspension. As the tide ebbs, the water and associated suspended sediment on the reef flat drains off the reef flat and is advected offshore and to the west by Trade wind- and tidally- driven currents. Observations on the fore reef show relatively high turbidity throughout the water column during the ebb tide. It therefore appears that high suspended sediment concentrations on the deeper fore reef, where active coral growth is at a maximum, are dynamically linked to processes on the muddy, shallow reef flat.

Hawaii↗

Exploring the persistence of sorted bedforms on the inner-shelf of Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina

Geological studies offshore of Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina reveal subtle large-scale regions of coarse sand with gravel and shell hash (widths between 100 and 200 m and negative relief of ∼1 m) that trend obliquely to the coast. It was previously suggested that these regions serve as conduits for sand exchange between the shoreface and inner shelf during storm-associated downwelling. Consequently they were classified as rippled scour depressions. More recently, the role of alongshore flows and self-organization as a result of inhibited settling of fine sand has been discussed. In this study, 45 days of near-bed current measurements were analyzed using benthic boundary layer and sediment transport models to examine the role of along- and cross-shore flows in driving sediment transport at this site. The wind climate was found to be a dominant influence on near-bed flows. Six distinct sediment transport events were recognized. During these events, sediment transport models show that bedload transport is directed mainly in the cross-shore direction, while suspended sediments are directed alongshore to the southwest. Current observations during these sediment transport events provide no evidence of cross-shore sediment transport caused by steady downwelling currents. Instead, benthic boundary layer model results are used to show that differences in bed roughness between the coarse areas of the seabed within the “rippled scour depressions” and the finer areas of the inner shelf are more pronounced during increasingly energetic wave and current conditions. The enhanced difference in roughness results in increased turbulence intensities over coarse regions inhibiting the deposition of the fine sand that is resuspended over the shelf during these events relative to finer areas over the shelf. Findings from this study contribute to explaining the observed long-term persistence of these features.

North Carolina↗

Cross-shore velocity shear, eddies and heterogeneity in water column properties over fringing coral reefs: West Maui, Hawaii

A multi-day hydrographic survey cruise was conducted to acquire spatially extensive, but temporally limited, high-resolution, three-dimensional measurements of currents, temperature, salinity and turbidity off West Maui in the summer of 2003 to better understand coastal dynamics along a complex island shoreline with coral reefs. These data complement long-term, high-resolution tide, wave, current, temperature, salinity and turbidity measurements made at a number of fixed locations in the study area starting in 2001. Analyses of these hydrographic data, in conjunction with numerous field observations, evoke the following conceptual model of water and turbidity flux along West Maui. Wave- and wind-driven flows appear to be the primary control on flow over shallower portions of the reefs while tidal and subtidal currents dominate flow over the outer portions of the reefs and insular shelf. When the direction of these flows counter one another, which is quite common, they cause a zone of cross-shore horizontal shear and often form a front, with turbid, lower-salinity water inshore of the front and clear, higher-salinity water offshore of the front. It is not clear whether these zones of high shear and fronts are the cause or the result of the location of the fore reef, but they appear to be correlated alongshore over relatively large horizontal distances (orders of kilometers). When two flows converge or when a single flow is bathymetrically steered, eddies can be generated that, in the absence of large ocean surface waves, tend to accumulate material. Areas of higher turbidity and lower salinity tend to correlate with regions of poor coral health or the absence of well-developed reefs, suggesting that the oceanographic processes that concentrate and/or transport nutrients, contaminants, low-salinity water or suspended sediment might strongly influence coral reef ecosystem health and sustainability.

Continental Shelf Research↗

Shallow stratigraphy and sedimentation history during high-frequency sea-level changes on the central California shelf

Analyses of high-resolution seismic-reflection data and sediment cores indicate that an extensive sediment deposit on the central California continental shelf is comprised of several late-Pleistocene to Holocene age facies. Offshore of the littoral zone, in water depths of 30-90 m, a 3-6 m thick veneer of fine sediment referred to as the mid-shelf mudbelt has formed along 50-100 km of the coast. The mudbelt drapes a parasequence characterized by prograding clinoforms that in places overlies a 1-3 m thick basal transgressive lag deposit. These facies overlie a prominent erosional unconformity that extends from the shore to the outer shelf. Eighteen calibrated 14CAMS ages of marine molluscs and terrestrial wood detritus sampled in cores range 15,800 yr BP to modern indicating a postglacial age for these sediments (one >55,000 yr BP represents relict sand). We model accumulation of these facies using (1) the topography of the underlying erosional unconformity interpreted from seismic reflection profiles, (2) observed sediment facies (grain size) distribution across the shelf (a proxy for wave/current sediment partitioning), and published estimates of (3) eustatic sea-level history, and (4) regional tectonics. Our model and data indicate that deposition of the transgressive lag began during early, slow postglacial sea-level rise and that a notable change in depositional environment occurred across an area of more than 200 km2 of the outer shelf likely in response to abrupt drowning during Meltwater Pulse 1B (11,500 yr BP). We propose that rapid progradation of clinoforms may have occurred during transgression because of the unique interaction of modest rates of sediment input and tectonic uplift, variable rates of eustatic sea-level rise and a complex stepped antecedent topography.

Continental Shelf Research↗

Bottom instrumented tripods: History, applications, and impacts

Instrumented bottom tripods have provided important data on sediment transport processes on continental shelves and in estuaries for four decades. Since the initial deployment in a tidal channel in Puget Sound, WA, in 1965 numerous tripods have been constructed to investigate bottom boundary layer and sediment dynamics worldwide. Tripod data have led to new understanding of near-bottom wave and current flows in the coastal ocean, and have been crucial to the development of shelf circulation and sediment transport models. Calculations of bottom stress, bottom roughness, and sediment flux that resulted directly from tripod data have been compared to bottom boundary layer model results. Where these have differed, new or revised model components have been developed to improve the skill of the models. The many discoveries that have been made from tripod experiments include dense, near-bottom fluid mud layers that transport large quantities of suspended sediment offshore into deeper regions of the continental shelf. This process has been linked to the seaward progradation of subaqueous deltas and to the boundaries of mid-shelf mud deposits off rivers with high fine-sediment discharge.

Continental Shelf Research↗

A deep reef in deep trouble

The well-documented degradation of shallower reefs which are often closer to land and more vulnerable to pollution, sewage and other human-related stressors has led to the suggestion that deeper, more remote offshore reefs could possibly serve as sources of coral and fish larvae to replenish the shallower reefs. Yet, the distribution, status, and ecological roles of deep (>30 m) Caribbean reefs are not well known. In this report, an observation of a deep reef which has undergone a recent extensive loss of coral cover is presented. In stark contrast to the typical pattern of coral loss in shallow reefs, the deeper corals were most affected. This report is the first description of such a pattern of coral loss on a deep reef.

Virgin Islands↗

Blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense in the western Gulf of Maine in 1993 and 1994: A comparative modeling study

Blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense commonly occur in the western Gulf of Maine but the amount of toxin observed in coastal shellfish is highly variable. In this study, a coupled physical-biological model is used to investigate the dynamics underlying the observed A. fundyense abundance and shellfish toxicity in 1993 (a high toxicity year) and 1994 (low toxicity year). The physical model simulates the spring circulation, while the biological model estimates the germination and population dynamics of A. fundyense based on laboratory and field data. The model captures the large-scale aspects of the initiation and development of A. fundyense blooms during both years, but small-scale patchiness and the dynamics of bloom termination remain problematic. In both cases, the germination of resting cysts accounts for the magnitude of A. fundyense populations early in the spring. Simulations with low net A. fundyense growth rates capture the mean observed concentration during the bloom peak, which is of similar magnitude during both years. There is little evidence that large-scale changes in biological dynamics between 1993 and 1994 were a primary driver of the differences in shellfish toxicity. Results instead suggest that the persistent southwesterly flow of the western Maine Coastal Current led to A. fundyense populations of similar alongshore extent by late May of both years. This period coincides with peak cell abundance in the region. Variations in wind forcing (downwelling favorable in 1993, upwelling favorable in 1994) and subsequent cell transport (inshore in 1993, offshore in 1994) in early June then provides a plausible explanation for the dramatic mid-June differences in shellfish toxicity throughout the western Gulf of Maine. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continental Shelf Research↗

River plume patterns and dynamics within the Southern California Bight

Stormwater river plumes are important vectors of marine contaminants and pathogens in the Southern California Bight. Here we report the results of a multi-institution investigation of the river plumes across eight major river systems of southern California. We use in situ water samples from multi-day cruises in combination with MODIS satellite remote sensing, buoy meteorological observations, drifters, and HF radar current measurements to evaluate the dispersal patterns and dynamics of the freshwater plumes. River discharge was exceptionally episodic, and the majority of storm discharge occurred in a few hours. The combined plume observing techniques revealed that plumes commonly detach from the coast and turn to the left, which is the opposite direction of Coriolis influence. Although initial offshore velocity of the buoyant plumes was ∼50 cm/s and was influenced by river discharge inertia (i.e., the direct momentum of the river flux) and buoyancy, subsequent advection of the plumes was largely observed in an alongshore direction and dominated by local winds. Due to the multiple day upwelling wind conditions that commonly follow discharge events, plumes were observed to flow from their respective river mouths to down-coast waters at rates of 20–40 km/d. Lastly, we note that suspended-sediment concentration and beam-attenuation were poorly correlated with plume salinity across and within the sampled plumes (mean r 2 =0.12 and 0.25, respectively), while colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) fluorescence was well correlated (mean r 2 =0.56), suggesting that CDOM may serve as a good tracer of the discharged freshwater in subsequent remote sensing and monitoring efforts of plumes.

California↗