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Population dynamics and harvest management of eastern mallards

Managing sustainable harvest of wildlife populations requires regular collection of demographic data and robust estimates of demographic parameters. Estimates can then be used to develop a harvest strategy to guide decision-making. Mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) are an important species in the Atlantic Flyway for many users and they exhibited exponential growth in the eastern United States between the 1970s and 1990s. Since then, estimates of mallard abundance have declined 16%, prompting the Atlantic Flyway Council and United States Fish and Wildlife Service to implement more restrictive hunting regulations and develop a new harvest strategy predicated on an updated population model. Our primary objective was to develop an integrated population model (IPM) for use in an eastern mallard harvest management strategy. We developed an IPM using annual estimates of breeding abundance, 2-season banding and recovery data, and hunter-harvest data from 1998 to 2018. When developing the model, we used novel model selection methods to test various forms of a sub-model for survival including estimating the degree of harvest additivity and any age-specific trends. The top survival sub-model included a negative annual trend on juvenile survival. The IPM posterior estimates for population abundance tracked closely with the observed estimates and estimates of mean annual population growth rate ranged from 0.88 to 1.08. Our population model provided increased precision in abundance estimates compared to survey methods for use in an updated harvest strategy. The IPM posterior estimates of survival rates were relatively stable for adult cohorts, and annual growth rate was positively correlated with the female age ratio, a measure of reproduction. Either or both of those demographic parameters, juvenile survival or reproduction, could be a target for management efforts to address the population decline. The resulting demographic parameters provided information on the equilibrium population size and can be used in an adaptive harvest strategy for mallards in eastern North America.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Characterizing mauka-to-makai connections for aquatic ecosystem conservation on Maui, Hawaiʻi

Mauka-to-makai (mountain to sea in the Hawaiian language) hydrologic connectivity – commonly referred to as ridge-to-reef – directly affects biogeochemical processes and socioecological functions across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems. The supply of freshwater to estuarine and nearshore environments in a ridge-to-reef system supports the food, water, and habitats utilized by marine fauna . In addition, the ecosystem services derived from this land-to-sea connectivity support social and cultural practices (hereafter referred to as socio-cultural) including fishing, aquaculture, wetland agriculture, religious ceremonies, and recreational activities. To effectively guide island resource management, a better understanding of the linkages from ridge-to-reef across natural and social usages is critical, particularly in the context of climate change, with anticipated increasing temperature and shifting precipitation patterns. The objective of this study was to identify spatial linkages that promote multiple and diverse uses, following the ridge-to-reef concept, at an island-wide scale to identify regions of high conservation importance for aquatic resources. We selected the Island of Maui as a study representative of many Pacific islands. Diverse datasets, including agricultural lands within watersheds, wetland locations, presence of stream species, indicators of freshwater input from streams, coral cover, nearshore fish biomass, socio-cultural data such as fishpond locations, wetland taro cultivation, beach recreation use, and lastly the dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP5) future climate projections scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 & 8.5) were used to examine the spatial linkages through hydrological connectivity from land to the sea. Zonation spatial planning software was used to prioritize areas of high management and conservation value and to help inform aquatic resources management. The resulting prioritized areas included many minimally disturbed watersheds in east Maui and western nearshore and coastal zones that are adjacent to diverse coral reefs. These results are driven by the importance of fish biomass and coral reef distribution as well as traditional wetland taro cultivation and coastal access points for recreation. These results underline the importance of examining ridge-to-reef systems for aquatic resource management and including important social and cultural values in resource management upon planning adaptation strategies for climate change. Improving our understanding of diverse natural and socio-cultural influences on habitat conditions and their values in these areas provides an opportunity to strategically plan future management and conservation actions.

Hawaii↗

U.S. Geological Survey programs in Texas

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the Federal Government's primary source of data on the quantity and quality of the Nation's water resources, its principal civilian map making agency, and its primary provider of information on natural hazards and mineral, energy, and biological resources. The USGS makes unbiased scientific information available equally to all interested parties. Most USGS work in Texas involves the appraisal of the State's water resources in cooperation with more than 80 local, State, and Federal agencies. The foundation of a wide range of hydrologic data-collection and interpretive programs is the stream-gaging program. The Texas network of streamflow-gaging stations, which provides water data for water-resources planning and design, hydrologic research, and operation of water-resources projects, is part of a nationwide aggregation of networks that is unique because of nationally consistent, prescribed standards by which the data are collected and processed. The USGS continues to expand collection of data for paper and digital maps. The best-known products of the USGS in Texas are its 1:24,000-scale topographic maps. These maps depict basic natural and cultural features of the landscape. Maps at this scale (1 inch on the map represents 2,000 feet on the ground) are useful for civil engineering, land-use planning, and natural-resource monitoring, and have long been favorites with the general public for a wide variety of outdoor uses. The USGS also continues to monitor geologic conditions in Texas associated with rare but potentially dangerous earthquakes. Recently, the Nation Biological Service (now the Biological Resources Division) joined the USGS to continue their appraisal of the nation's biological resources.

Fact Sheet↗

Monitoring and real-time modeling of Escherichia coli bacteria for the Chattahoochee River, Chattahoochee River National Recreation Area, Georgia, 2000–2019

The Chattahoochee River National Recreation Area (CRNRA) is a National Park Service unit/park with 48 miles of urban waterway in the Atlanta metropolitan area. The Chattahoochee River within the CRNRA is a popular place for water-based recreation but is known to periodically experience elevated levels of fecal-coliform bacteria associated with warm-blooded animals that can result in a variety of pathogen-related human illnesses. In 2000, the National Park Service entered into a public-private partnership with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Chattahoochee Riverkeeper, called the Chattahoochee River BacteriALERT program, to monitor Escherichia coli ( E. coli ), which is a fecal indicator bacteria and a proxy for human health risk from waterborne pathogens. The BacteriALERT network monitors E. coli densities at three stations on the Chattahoochee River within the CRNRA, at Norcross (USGS station 02335000), Powers Ferry (USGS station 02335880), and Atlanta (USGS station 02336000). E. coli densities determined from water samples were compared to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Beach Action Value (BAV) of 235 colony forming units per 100 milliliters to assess whether conditions were considered safe for freshwater, primary contact recreational use. Sample E. coli densities exceeded the BAV for 15.5 percent of the samples collected at Norcross (n = 1,969) and 30.3 percent of the samples at Atlanta (n = 1,938) for the study period October 23, 2000, to May 23, 2019, and 33.6 percent of the samples from Powers Ferry (n = 134) for the study period May 5, 2016, to May 23, 2019. Models to predict E. coli densities in near real-time were developed for the three BacteriALERT stations. Models were developed using forward-stepwise multiple linear regression with the Bayesian Information Criteria and were calibrated with samples collected between October 4, 2007, and May 23, 2019. Explanatory variables included season, turbidity, water temperature, streamflow, upstream tributary streamflows, and temporal trend. The most statistically significant explanatory variables in the models were turbidity, upstream tributary streamflows, and season. The Norcross model had an increasing trend in E. coli densities of 2.3 percent per year. A significant trend was not detected for the Atlanta station, while trends were not assessed for Powers Ferry models due to the short (3-year) calibration period. Model adjusted R 2 s ranged from 0.686 (Atlanta) to 0.795 (Norcross with time trend) indicating that the models explained a substantial portion of the variations in E. coli densities. Evaluation of model predictions and residuals indicated that models were well posed and exhibited little bias. The models performed well in accurately determining compliance and exceedance of the BAV with low misidentification rates ranging from 3.5 percent (Norcross) to 11.3 percent (Powers Ferry). Misidentification was most common for densities near the BAV, and misidentification rates in the study were low despite fairly low model precisions because E. coli densities were infrequently near the BAV. The precisions of the models developed herein were comparable to the more complex models developed by Lawrence (2012) that were never implemented in the BacteriALERT program due to their computational complexity. The predictive E. coli models developed herein will improve the ability to assess the health risks of water-based recreational activities in the CRNRA in near real-time.

Georgia↗

Watershed Boundary Dataset for Mississippi

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality, U.S. Department of Agriculture-Natural Resources Conservation Service, Mississippi Department of Transportation, U.S. Department of Agriculture-Forest Service, and the Mississippi Automated Resource Information System developed a 1:24,000-scale Watershed Boundary Dataset for Mississippi including watershed and subwatershed boundaries, codes, names, and areas. The Watershed Boundary Dataset for Mississippi provides a standard geographical framework for water-resources and selected land-resources planning. The original 8-digit subbasins (Hydrologic Unit Codes) were further subdivided into 10-digit watersheds (62.5 to 391 square miles (mi2)) and 12-digit subwatersheds (15.6 to 62.5 mi2) - the exceptions being the Delta part of Mississippi and the Mississippi River inside levees, which were subdivided into 10-digit watersheds only. Also, large water bodies in the Mississippi Sound along the coast were not delineated as small as a typical 12-digit subwatershed. All of the data - including watershed and subwatershed boundaries, subdivision codes and names, and drainage-area data - are stored in a Geographic Information System database, which are available at: http://ms.water.usgs.gov/. This map shows information on drainage and hydrography in the form of U.S. Geological Survey hydrologic unit boundaries for water-resource 2-digit regions, 4-digit subregions, 6-digit basins (formerly called accounting units), 8-digit subbasins (formerly called cataloging units), 10-digit watershed, and 12-digit subwatersheds in Mississippi. A description of the project study area, methods used in the development of watershed and subwatershed boundaries for Mississippi, and results are presented in Wilson and others (2008). The data presented in this map and by Wilson and others (2008) supersede the data presented for Mississippi by Seaber and others (1987) and U.S. Geological Survey (1977).

Scientific Investigations Map↗

Simulating future uncertainty to guide the selection of survey designs for long-term monitoring

A goal of environmental monitoring is to provide sound information on the status and trends of natural resources (Messer et al. 1991, Theobald et al. 2007, Fancy et al. 2009). When monitoring observations are acquired by measuring a subset of the population of interest, probability sampling as part of a well-constructed survey design provides the most reliable and legally defensible approach to achieve this goal (Cochran 1977, Olsen et al. 1999, Schreuder et al. 2004; see Chapters 2, 5, 6, 7). Previous works have described the fundamentals of sample surveys (e.g. Hansen et al. 1953, Kish 1965). Interest in survey designs and monitoring over the past 15 years has led to extensive evaluations and new developments of sample selection methods (Stevens and Olsen 2004), of strategies for allocating sample units in space and time (Urquhart et al. 1993, Overton and Stehman 1996, Urquhart and Kincaid 1999), and of estimation (Lesser and Overton 1994, Overton and Stehman 1995) and variance properties (Larsen et al. 1995, Stevens and Olsen 2003) of survey designs. Carefully planned, “scientific” (Chapter 5) survey designs have become a standard in contemporary monitoring of natural resources. Based on our experience with the long-term monitoring program of the US National Park Service (NPS; Fancy et al. 2009; Chapters 16, 22), operational survey designs tend to be selected using the following procedures. For a monitoring indicator (i.e. variable or response), a minimum detectable trend requirement is specified, based on the minimum level of change that would result in meaningful change (e.g. degradation). A probability of detecting this trend (statistical power) and an acceptable level of uncertainty (Type I error; see Chapter 2) within a specified time frame (e.g. 10 years) are specified to ensure timely detection. Explicit statements of the minimum detectable trend, the time frame for detecting the minimum trend, power, and acceptable probability of Type I error (α) collectively form the quantitative sampling objective.

Book chapter↗

Predictive regressive models of recent marsh sediment thickness improve the quantification of coastal marsh sediment budgets

Coastal marsh wetlands experience variations in vertical gains and losses through time, which have allowed them to infill relict topography and record variations in drivers. The stratigraphic unit associated with the development of the marsh also reflects the long-term importance of key ecosystem services supplied by the marsh environment, including carbon storage and storm mitigation. Mapping these coastal wetland sediments and the marsh unit thickness is challenging as traditional coastal geophysical tools are not easily deployable (acoustic methods) or are unreliable in saline-soil environments (e.g., ground-penetrating radar), leaving core-based methods the most viable mapping method. In the present study, we utilized prior information on the geologic architecture of the region to select spatial and physical metrics that likely persisted throughout evolution of the marsh during the late Holocene. We then assessed the individual and collective power of these metrics to predict marsh thickness observed from cores. Employing regressive predictive models powered by these data, we improve the quantification of marsh thickness for a coastal fringing marsh within the Grand Bay estuary in Mississippi and Alabama (USA). The information gained from this approach yields improved estimates of the carbon stocks in this environment. Additionally, the stored sediment masses reflect the past, and potential future, persistence of the Grand Bay marsh under historical and present marsh-estuarine sediment exchange fluxes. Such improvements to both the sediment budget of recent marsh stratigraphic units and the spatial extent provide new resources for comparison with large-scale landscape models, the latter of which may be used, when validated, to predict future change and ecosystem transformations.

Alabama. Mississippi↗

Connecting the dots: a collaborative USGS-NPS effort to expand the utility of monitoring data

The Natural Resource Challenge (National Park Service 1999) was a call to action. It constituted a mandate for monitoring based on the twin premises that (1) natural resources in national parks require active management and stewardship if we are to protect them from gradual degradation, and (2) we cannot protect what we do not understand. The intent of the challenge was embodied in its original description: We must expand existing inventory programs and develop efficient ways to monitor the vital signs of natural systems. We must enlist others in the scientific community to help, and also facilitate their inquiry. Managers must have and apply this information to preserve our natural resources. In this article, we report on ongoing collaborative work between the National Park Service (NPS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) that seeks to add to our scientific understanding of the ecological processes operating behind vital signs monitoring data. The ultimate goal of this work is to provide insights that can facilitate an understanding of the systems and identify potential opportunities for active stewardship by NPS managers (Bennetts et al. 2007; Mitchell et al. 2014). The bulk of the work thus far has involved Acadia and Rocky Mountain national parks, but there are plans for extending the work to additional parks. Our story stats with work designed to consider ways of assessing the status and condition of natural resources and the potential for historical or ongoing influences of human activities. In the 1990s, the concept of "biotic integrity" began to take hold as an aspiration for developing quantitative indices describing how closely the conditions at a site resemble those found at pristine, unimpacted sites. Quantitative methods for developing indices of biotic integrity (IBIs) and elaborations of that idea (e.g., ecological integrity) have received considerable attention and application of these methods to natural resources has become widespread (Karr 1991; Barbour et al. 1999; Stoddard et al. 2008). Despite widespread use, many questions remain about how metrics are combined to form effective indices and about how to interpret both. Scientists and natural resource specialists within NPS and USGS have joined forces to critique the current analysis methods, with the collaboration involving the Rocky Mountain and Northeast Temperate NPS Inventory and Monitoring (I & M) networks, along with others, and USGS scientists from the National Wetlands Research Center and Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Funding that initiated the project was from a joint-partnership fund managed by the USGS Ecosystems Program for National Park Monitoring research and the work was focused at Acadia National Park and Rocky Mountain National Park. Here we present synopses of two major issues addressed by the group.

The George Wright Forum↗

The North American Breeding Bird Survey in Mexico, 2008 to 2018—A status report

Collection of avian population data has repeatedly been identified as a high priority for bird conservation in Mexico. To meet this need, in 2008 the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), a volunteer-based survey, was expanded to include northern Mexico. The BBS in Mexico (Mexican BBS) is managed by the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI), Mexico’s National Coordination Office inside the Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad (CONABIO). During 2008–18, 252 surveys were conducted along 68 routes in Mexico, with geographic coverage varying from year to year. Of these 68 routes, 36 were surveyed three or more times. Thirty-one observers conducted the surveys, and 21 of these observers conducted two or more surveys. Just two observers conducted more than one-third of the 252 surveys, and both observers were paid to conduct the surveys. The low availability of local observers who are qualified, willing, and able to volunteer their services to conduct BBS surveys may prove to be the biggest obstacle to the success of the Mexican BBS program, especially in the context of Mexico’s ongoing safety and security concerns. Apart from the amount of data collected, many surveys did not adhere to pre-established quality-control requirements, and this would result in the exclusion of a large percentage of the data from potential trend analyses. Only 31 percent of the surveys met all the quality-control criteria. Additional observer training may help resolve this issue. Of greater concern is the selection of region-specific sampling date windows during which the surveys are conducted. Observers consistently conducted surveys outside the preliminarily prescribed sampling date window, reflecting the need to re-evaluate the regional appropriateness of this date window. Regardless of the quality of the data, the quantity of data available from 2008 to 2018 is insufficient for trend analysis using methods typically employed by U.S. Geological Survey BBS analysts. Reaching minimum sample size thresholds for statistical analysis will require a substantial increase in effort. During 2008–18, no strata (defined as the intersection of State and Bird Conservation Region boundaries) reached the suggested minimum of 14 sampled routes, and most routes were not run consistently. This report provides information needed for an evaluation of the merits of continuing to invest in the Mexican BBS program in its current form. Such an evaluation should consider the likelihood of achieving the primary project goal of producing reliable long-term population trend estimates, a projected timeline for meeting this goal, and include an assessment of the potential value of any additional data products.

Baja California, Baja California Sur, Chihuahua, C↗

MOSS user's manual

The Map Overlay and Statistical System (MOSS) Users' Manual is specialized document has been designed for trained users of the MOSS interactive graphics software. Those totally unfamiliar with MOSS or Geographic Information Systems are referred elsewhere as described below: -- If you know nothing about MOSS or what it can do for you, and you wish introductory information on MOSS, or you want to deign an application and data entry process compatible with MOSS, or you want "hands-on" training, contact the WELUT Team Leader at the address below for a "hands-on" GIS training session. -- If you have been introduced to MOSS, have your application defined, data entered, and want to know how to use MOSS, start reading at Section 1 of this Manual. --If you are interested in the MOSS data structure, refer to Section 2 of this Manual. --If you have some experience in using MOSS and want to refer to the general types of MOSS commands, read Section 3 of this Manual. --If you are an experience MOSS user and want details on individual MOSS commands, refer to Section 4.3 of this Manual. --If you are interested in the Federation of Rocky Mountain States -- WELUT 02 Project contractual background results, turn to Appendices D and E of this Manual. MOSS has been operation for less than 3 months, and has received limited operational testing at the date of this printing (October 1978). Undiscovered software limitations and bugs may yet appear. All such bugs as well as documentation errors, obscurities, and inadequacies should be reported to: Team Leader Western Energy and Land Use Team (WELUT) U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Drake Creekside Building 2625 Redwing Road Fort Collins, Colorado 80526

FWS/OBS↗

Threats to desert tortoise populations: a critical review of the literature

Decision in resource management are generally based on a combination of sociopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, and may be biased by personal values. These three components often contradict each other resulting in controversy. Controversies can usually be reduced when solid scientific evidence is used to support or refute a decision. However, it is important to recognize that data often do little to alter antagonists' positions when differences in values are the bases if the dispute. But, supporting data can make the decision more defensible, both legally and ethically, especially if the data supporting all opposing viewpoints are included in the decision-making process. Resource management decisions must be made using the best scientific information currently available. However, scientific data vary in two important measures of quality: reliability and validity. The reliability of the data is a measure of the degree to which the observations or conclusion can be repeated. Validity of the data is a measure of the degree to which the observation or conclusion reflects what actually occurs in nature. How the data are collected strongly affects the reliability of validity of ecological conclusions that can be made. Research data potentially relevant to management come from different sources, and the source often provides clues to the reliability and, to a certain extent, validity of data. Understanding the quality of data being used to make management decisions helps to separate the philosophical or value-based aspects of arguments from the objective ones, thus helping to clarify the decisions and judgments that need to be made. The West Mojave Plan is a multispecies, bioregional plan for the management of natural resources within a 9.4 million-acre area of the Mojave Desert in California. The plan addresses the legal requirements for the recovery of the desert tortoise ( Gopherus agazzizii ), a threatened species, but also covers an additional approximately 80 species of plants and animals assigned special status by the Bureau of Land Management, U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and California Department of Fish and Game. Within the planning area, 28 separate jurisdictions (counties, cities, towns, military installations, etc.) seek programmatic prescriptions that will facilitate streamlined environmental review, result in expedited authorization for development projects, and protect listed and unlisted species into the foreseeable future to avoid or minimize conflicts between proposed development and species' conservation and recovery. All of the scientific data available concerning the biology and management of these approximately 80 species and their habitats must be evaluated to develop a scientifically credible plan. This document provides an overview and evaluation of the knowledge of the major threats to the persistence and recovery of desert tortoise populations. I was specifically asked to evaluate the scientific veracity of the data and reports available. I summarize the data presently available with particular focus on the West Mojave Desert, evaluate the scientific integrity of the data. and identify major gaps in the available knowledge. I do not attempt to provide in-depth details on each study or threat; for more details I encourage the reader to consult the individual papers or reports city throughout this report (many of which are available at most university libraries and at the West Mojave Plan office in Riverside, California). I also do not attempt to characterize or evaluate the past or present management actions, except where they have direct bearing on evaluation of threats, nor do I attempt, for the most part, to acquire, generate, or evaluate new or existing, but uninterpreted data.

California↗

Nuclear and mitochondrial DNA analyses of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos canadensis) from three areas in western North America; initial results and conservation implications

Understanding the genetics of a population is a critical component of developing conservation strategies. We used archived tissue samples from golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos canadensis ) in three geographic regions of western North America to conduct a preliminary study of the genetics of the North American subspecies, and to provide data for United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) decision-making for golden eagle management. We used a combination of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) D-loop sequences and 16 nuclear DNA (nDNA) microsatellite loci to investigate the extent of gene flow among our sampling areas in Idaho, California and Alaska and to determine if we could distinguish birds from the different geographic regions based on their genetic profiles. Our results indicate high genetic diversity, low genetic structure and high connectivity. Nuclear DNA Fst values between Idaho and California were low but significantly different from zero (0.026). Bayesian clustering methods indicated a single population, and we were unable to distinguish summer breeding residents from different regions. Results of the mtDNA AMOVA showed that most of the haplotype variation (97%) was within the geographic populations while 3% variation was partitioned among them. One haplotype was common to all three areas. One region-specific haplotype was detected in California and one in Idaho, but additional sampling is required to determine if these haplotypes are unique to those geographic areas or a sampling artifact. We discuss potential sources of the high gene flow for this species including natal and breeding dispersal, floaters, and changes in migratory behavior as a result of environmental factors such as climate change and habitat alteration. Our preliminary findings can help inform the USFWS in development of golden eagle management strategies and provide a basis for additional research into the complex dynamics of the North American subspecies.

Alaska, California, Idaho, Oregon↗

Accounting for land in the United States: Integrating physical land cover, land use, and monetary valuation

Land plays a critical role in both economic and environmental accounting. As an asset, it occupies a unique position at the intersection of the System of National Accounts (SNA), the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Central Framework (SEEA-CF), and (as a spatial unit) SEEA Experimental Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA-EEA), making land a natural starting point for developing natural capital accounts more generally. We develop a pilot set of national and subnational land accounts for the United States that are consistent with the SEEA-CF and SNA principles, quantified in both physical and monetary terms. The physical accounts utilize detailed land use (National Land Use Database) and land cover (National Land Cover Database) datasets, which provide insights into how land cover in the U.S. is changing over time. To provide aggregate estimates of land values, we use a hedonic approach that exploits fine-grain microdata (“big data” from Zillow) that contains detailed information from hundreds of millions of property transactions and their corresponding physical characteristics covering much of the U.S. Methodologically, we show that it is feasible to produce monetary accounts for land that can be directly linked to and integrated with physical land cover/use. Overall, U.S. land cover has shown declines in forests, cropland, and pasture with increases in barren, scrub/shrub, and developed classes, which are particularly concentrated in the U.S. Southeast. Nominal land values in the U.S. fell about 28% ($7 trillion) from the boom to bust periods in the prior decade, albeit with substantial regional variation, and have subsequently experienced a nearly full recovery in recent years. We estimate private land in the contiguous 48 states to be worth approximately $25.1 trillion in 2016.

Ecosystem Services↗

Analysis and simulation of water-level, specific conductance, and total phosphorus dynamics of the Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, Florida, 1995-2006

The Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) was established in 1951 through a license agreement between the South Florida Water Management District and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) as part of the Migratory Bird Conservation Act. Under the license agreement, the State of Florida owns the land of the Refuge and the USFWS manages the land. Fifty-seven miles of levees and borrow canals surround the Refuge. Water in the canals surrounding the marsh is controlled by inflows and outflows through control structures. The transport of canal water with higher specific conductance and nutrient concentrations to the interior marsh has the potential to alter critical ecosystem functions of the marsh. Data-mining techniques were applied to 12 years (1995-2006) of historical data to systematically synthesize and analyze the dataset to enhance the understanding of the hydrology and water quality of the Refuge. From the analysis, empirical models, including artificial neural network (ANN) models, were developed to answer critical questions related to the relative effects of controlled releases, precipitation, and meteorological forcing on water levels, specific conductance, and phosphorous concentrations of the interior marsh. Data mining is a powerful tool for converting large databases into information to solve complex problems resulting from large numbers of explanatory variables or poorly understood process physics. For the application of the linear regression and ANN models to the Refuge, data-mining methods were applied to maximize the information content in the raw data. Signal processing techniques used in the data analysis and model development included signal decomposition, digital filtering, time derivatives, time delays, and running averages. Inputs to the empirical models included time series, or signals, of inflows and outflows from the control structures, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. For a complex hydrologic system like the Refuge, the statistical accuracy of the models and predictive capability were good. The water-level models have coefficient of determination (R 2 values ranging from 0.90 to 0.98. The R 2 for the specific conductance model is 0.82, and the R2 for the total phosphorus model is 0.51. The accuracy of the models was attributable to the quantity and quality of the available data. To make the models directly available to all stakeholders, an easy-to-use decision support system (DSS) called the Loxahatchee Artificial Neural Network Model (LOXANN) DSS was developed as a spreadsheet application that integrates the historical database, linear regression and ANN models, model controls, streaming graphics, and model output. The LOXANN DSS allows Refuge managers and other users to easily execute the water level, specific conductance, and phosphorous models to evaluate various water-resource management scenarios. The user is able to choose from three options in setting the control-structure flows: as a percentage of historical flow, as a constant flow, or as a user-defined hydrograph. Output from the LOXANN DSS includes tabular time series of predictions of the measured data and predictions of the user-specified conditions. A three-dimensional visualization routine also was developed that displays longitudinal specific conductance conditions. Two scenarios were simulated with the LOXANN DSS. One scenario increased the historical flows at four control structures by 40 percent. The second scenario used a user-defined hydrograph to set the outflow from the Refuge to the weekly average inflow to the Refuge delayed by 2 days. Both scenarios decreased the potential of canal water intruding into the marsh by decreasing the slope of the water level between the canals and the marsh.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Science-based management of public lands in southern Nevada

Landmark legislation provides guiding principles for land management planning in southern Nevada and the rest of the United States. Such legislation includes, but is not limited to, the Forest Service Organic Administration Act of 1897 (16 U.S>C. 473-478, 479-482 and 551), National Park Service Organic Act of 1916 (U.S.C. Title 16, Secs. 1-4). Wilderness Act 1964 (P.L.88-577), National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (P.L. 91-190), Endangered Species Act of 1973 (P.L. 91-205), National Forest Management Act of of 1976 (P.L. 94-588), and Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976 (P.L. 94-579). The acts establishing congressionally designated areas within southern Nevada, such as Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Spring Mountains National Restoration Area, and Desert National Wildlife Refuge, also contain guidelines for the management of these lands. These documents variously require preservation of natural and cultural resource and wilderness character, protection of species, and prevention of undesirable environmental effects from land management actions. These requirements must be met while allowing for multiple "uses" of certain public lands (e.g. recreation, ranching, resources extraction, renewable energy development, etc.) to the degree that they do no threaten preservation, protection, and prevention goals,. many considerations some into play in the development and implementation for land management plans and actions. The planning process requires a balancing act that sometimes pit one need or priority against another. When priorities can trump other needs can prioritized and receive disproportionate consideration. Overall, the management of public lands is a very complicated and sometime contentious process. Science provides an objective way to help weigh quantifiable information and draw conclusions about the effects of past and potential future land management policies, decisions, and actions. When effectively integrated into adaptive management, science-based information can reduce uncertainties, increase knowledge, and improve decision making. However, the specific science information needed for effective management is often lacking or difficult to access or interpret. Science is typically reported in scientific journals as discrete units describing individual studies with other scientists as the primary audience. Translations of these studies an synthesis or multiple studies into formats that can be readily used in land management planning efforts are often lacking. Identifying and articulating the highest priority science and research needs is one of the primary purposes of the Southern Nevada Agency Partnership (SNAP; http://www.SNAP.gov) Science and Research Team (chapter 1; Turner and others 2009). The SNAP Science and Research Strategy (Strategy) calls for a synthesis report to be written every 5 years summarizing the state of knowledge, information gaps and management implications of scientific information as it relates to the SNAP Strategy goals (Turner and others 2009). This General Technical Report serves as the first SNAP Science and Research Synthesis Report (Synthesis Report) commissioned by the Science and Research Team. The Synthesis Report is mostly based on information form the peer-reviewed scientific literature, and is itself peer reviewed and constitutes a new contribution to the scientific literature. This final chapter addresses Sub-goal 2.3, which is to manage current and future authorized southern Nevada land uses in a manner that balances public need and ecosystem sustainability, and Sub-goal 2.5, which is to promote an effective conservation education and interpretation program to improve the quality of resources and enhance public use and enjoyment of southern Nevada public lands. It summarizes information form the previous chapters on what scientific information is known currently and what remains largely unknown, and it discusses how science can be used to make future management decisions that balances public needs and ecosystem sustainability.

Nevada↗

Conceptual ecological model for management of breeding grassland birds in the Mid-Atlantic Region

The status of grassland birds has become an increasingly important conservation issue. These species exhibit the most consistent population declines of any group of North American birds during the past 40 years. Anecdotal evidence suggests these declines have been occurring for nearly a century (Peterjohn and Sauer 1999). While the widespread conversion of grasslands into other habitats contributed to these declining populations, other factors such as habitat fragmentation and mowing regimes are also implicated (Vickery et al. 1999a). This plight of grassland birds has heightened awareness of the need for concerted conservation actions to reverse these seriously declining population trends. The National Park Service (NPS) is positioned to potentially contribute to grassland bird conservation in the Mid-Atlantic Region. The NPS maintains a number of historic sites and former battlefields that are managed for their cultural significance but also support wildlife populations. Many of these “cultural parks” maintain open landscapes to recreate land use patterns that existed at the times of the historical events. These open landscapes are primarily managed grasslands which could be maintained to benefit grassland birds. In 2005, the NPS initiated a project exploring the potential of “cultural parks” to support significant breeding grassland bird communities. This project involved parks within three NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program (I&M) networks, Mid-Atlantic, National Capital, and Eastern Rivers and Mountains. Five parks were selected for the initial focus of this study, all of which maintain open landscapes for interpretation of historic events. Most parks were selected because they represent the most extensive grassland habitats within their networks, with the rationale that if these parks cannot support significant breeding grassland bird communities, then parks with smaller acreages cannot support these communities either. The five parks included in this study are: Antietam National Battlefield, Fort Necessity National Battlefield, Gettysburg National Battlefield, Manassas National Battlefield, and Monocacy National Battlefield. This conceptual ecological model is one product of this project. The information presented below allows NPS Network Coordinators to understand the factors to consider when making decisions concerning grassland management within their networks. This model provides park Resource Managers with information on grassland ecology in the Mid-Atlantic Region, the ecological requirements of grassland birds likely to occur in their parks, and management issues that influence whether significant breeding populations can be expected to occupy grasslands created and maintained in the parks. The Resource Managers can then make informed decisions concerning their ability to create and maintain grassland habitats. The emphasis of this conceptual model is restricted to management of breeding grassland birds. Additional species may occur in this region during migration and winter, while habitat requirements of all grassland birds during nonbreeding seasons will differ from those described for the breeding season.

Natural Resource Report↗

Plankton communities and summertime declines in algal abundance associated with low dissolved oxygen in the Tualatin River, Oregon

Phytoplankton populations in the Tualatin River in northwestern Oregon are an important component of the dissolved oxygen (DO) budget of the river and are critical for maintaining DO levels in summer. During the low-flow summer period, sufficient nutrients and a long residence time typically combine with ample sunshine and warm water to fuel blooms of cryptophyte algae, diatoms, green and blue-green algae in the low-gradient, slow-moving reservoir reach of the lower river. Algae in the Tualatin River generally drift with the water rather than attach to the river bottom as a result of moderate water depths, slightly elevated turbidity caused by suspended colloidal material, and dominance of silty substrates. Growth of algae occurs as if on a “conveyor belt” of streamflow, a dynamic system that is continually refreshed with inflowing water. Transit through the system can take as long as 2 weeks during the summer low-flow period. Photosynthetic production of DO during algal blooms is important in offsetting oxygen consumption at the sediment-water interface caused by the decomposition of organic matter from primarily terrestrial sources, and the absence of photosynthesis can lead to low DO concentrations that can harm aquatic life. The periods with the lowest DO concentrations in recent years (since 2003) typically occur in August following a decline in algal abundance and activity, when DO concentrations often decrease to less than State standards for extended periods (nearly 80 days). Since 2003, algal populations have tended to be smaller and algal blooms have terminated earlier compared to conditions in the 1990s, leading to more frequent declines in DO to levels that do not meet State standards. This study was developed to document the current abundance and species composition of phytoplankton in the Tualatin River, identify the possible causes of the general decline in algae, and evaluate hypotheses to explain why algal blooms diminish in midsummer. Plankton and water-quality sample data from 2006 to 2008 were combined with parts of a larger discrete-sample and continuous water-quality monitoring dataset and examined to identify patterns in water-quality and algal conditions since 1991, with a particular emphasis on 2003–08. Longitudinal plankton surveys were conducted in 2006–08 at six sites between river miles (RM) 24.5 and 3.4 at 2- to 3-week intervals, or 5–6 per season, and in-situ bioassay experiments were conducted in 2008 to examine the potential effects of wastewater treatment facility (WWTF) effluent and phosphorus additions on phytoplankton biomass and algal photosynthesis. Phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition, streamflow, and water-quality data were analyzed using multivariate statistical techniques to gain insights into plankton dynamics to determine what factors might be most tied to the abundance and characteristics of the phytoplankton assemblages, and identify possible causes of their declines. The connection between low-DO events and algal declines was clearly evident, as bloom crashes were nearly always followed by periods of low DO. Algal blooms occurred each year during 2006–08, producing maximum chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) values in June or July generally in the range of 50–80 micrograms per liter (µg/L). Bloom crashes and absence of sufficient algal photosynthesis in mid- to late-summer contributed to minimum DO concentrations that were less than the State standard of 6.5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) based on the 30-day mean daily concentration, for 62–74 days each year. At times, the absolute minimum State standard (4 mg/L DO) also was not met. To learn more about why low-DO events occurred, specific algal declines during 2003–08 were scrutinized to determine their likely causal factors. From this information, a series of hypotheses were formulated and evaluated in terms of their ability to explain recent declines in algal populations in the river in late summer. Meteorological, streamflow, turbidity, water temperature, and conductance conditions in the Tualatin River during the 2006–08 summer seasons were not atypical. Natural flow comprised the majority (70–80 percent) of flow each year during spring, but then reduced to 38–40 percent during midsummer when WWTF effluent—which contributed as much as 36 percent—and flow augmentation releases comprised a greater fraction of the flow. Summer 2008 was unusual, however, in the prolonged influence from the Wapato Lake agricultural area near Gaston in the upper part of the basin. The previous winter flooding and levee breach at Wapato Lake caused a much greater area of inundation. As a result, drainage from this area continued into July, much later than normal. A subsequent algal bloom in Wapato Lake then seeded the upper Tualatin River, and this drainage had a profound effect on the downstream plankton community. A large blue-green algae bloom developed—the largest in recent memory—prompting a public health advisory for recreational contact for about two weeks. Algal growths and surface blooms are a common feature of the Tualatin River. Most of the dominant algae have growth forms and morphologies that are well suited for planktonic life, employing spines and gas vacuoles to resist settling, forming colonies, and producing mucilage (or toxins) to resist zooplankton grazing. In 2006–08, 143 algal taxa were identified in 117 main-stem samples; diatoms and green algae were more diverse than blue-green, golden, and cryptophyte algae, although these later groups sometimes dominated the overall volumetric abundance (biovolume). The most frequently occurring taxa, occurring in 97–99 percent of samples, were flagellated cryptophytes Cryptomonas erosa and Rhodomonas minuta. Other important algal taxa included centric diatoms Stephanodiscus, Cyclotella, and Melosira species and colonial green algae Scenedesmus and Actinastrum. These taxa comprised the majority of the algal biovolume during much of the growing season. A general seasonal trend in the phytoplankton assemblages was observed, with dominance by filamentous centric diatoms Stephanodiscus and Melosira in spring and early summer, and flagellated cryptophytes and green algae, particularly Chlamydomonas sp., in late-summer; or, in 2008, dominance by blue-green algae Anabaena flos-aquae and Aphanizomenon flos-aquae during the Wapato Lake bloom event. There were 99 zooplankton taxa identified from the Tualatin River in 2006–08, composed primarily of cladocerans, copepods, and rotifers. A seasonal increase in zooplankton abundance was observed in early summer just as or shortly after the phytoplankton population began to increase, with populations growing to 15,000−120,000 organisms per cubic meter in the lower river. Zooplankton abundance showed a predictable and distinct longitudinal downstream increase, particularly downstream of Highway 99W (RM 11.6). Although grazing rates were not measured, the data suggest that, at times, zooplankton grazing may affect algal abundance and species composition in the Tualatin River, with diatoms becoming relatively less abundant and flagellated cryptophytes and green algae relatively more abundant during periods when zooplankton densities were highest. Multivariate statistical analyses identified soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), natural flow, flow augmentation, and WWTF effluent as important factors influencing Tualatin River phytoplankton populations, with zooplankton density (particularly rotifers and copepods), specific conductance, chloride, and water temperature also having an important influence. Although SRP was highly correlated with the plankton communities, that correlation was likely the result of high or low algal activity (uptake) as SRP concentrations were often reduced to low levels during blooms. While previous studies have already established that phosphorus, among other factors such as flow, places a theoretical cap on the size of the phytoplankton population in the river, sometimes algal declines occur when SRP concentrations are apparently sufficient. To identify alternative causal factors, additional analyses were performed without SRP to focus on other water-quality parameters, zooplankton density, and flow factors. Considering data for all 3 years and including just those samples from the lower Tualatin River not affected by the 2008 Wapato Lake drainage event, three factors (percentage of reservoir flow augmentation, total natural flow, and rotifer density) best explained variations in the phytoplankton assemblages. Analyses focusing on the possible causes of algal declines included the above multivariate analyses, scrutiny of 10 specific instances of declines in algal populations during 2003–08 including several bloom–crash sequences, and analyses of historic routine watershed monitoring data from Clean Water Services. Six factors were hypothesized to be important in causing bloom crashes or impeding blooms from rebounding in August: (1) light limitation from cloudy weather, (2) a reduction in the plankton inocula or “seed” entering the lower river from upstream sources, (3) increased summer streamflows, (4) changes in the dominant sources of flow as the percentage of flow augmentation and WWTF discharges have increased, (5) zooplankton grazing, and (6) low concentrations of bioavailable phosphorus (<0.015 milligram per liter). All of these hypotheses are supported in some fashion by the available data and statistical analyses. Zooplankton grazing, short-term declines in photosynthesis from cloudy weather, total flow as it affects residence time, and the dominant source of flow are primary factors responsible for the low-DO events caused by declines in algae in the lower Tualatin River during late summer. Cloudy weather and increased turbidity are known to inhibit algal growth in the Tualatin River, and slight increases in turbidity in recent years may be a problem. Upstream sources of algae are critical in determining the characteristics and size of downstream populations, as illustrated by the Wapato Lake bloom in 2008, but more data are needed from upstream to fully define the importance of this connection. The sources of flow, through their differential contribution of plankton inocula (quality and amount), were, at times, important factors affecting phytoplankton populations. While SRP concentrations were often most highly correlated with phytoplankton species community, the bioavailability of phosphorus is still somewhat unknown and there are several sources to consider. Preliminary bioassay tests suggested that while treated wastewater effluent may stimulate algae at 30 percent concentrations, negative effects (or decreased stimulation) on Chl-a and DO production may occur at concentrations of 50 percent. Targeted data collection and future research will be needed to further understand the importance of these factors on Tualatin River phytoplankton. While the data and analysis completed for this report provide insights into future research and monitoring that would be useful to continue, additional monitoring of turbidity, Chl-a, and plankton abundance and species composition in the upper part of the basin would enhance our understanding of plankton dynamics and factors affecting phytoplankton abundance in the lower river. Assessment of the key upstream sources of algal inocula via surveys of the major flow sources as well as tributaries and wetlands would provide useful information for the management of river water quality. Other studies that could prove useful for developing management strategies include targeted experiments to evaluate the bioavailability of phosphorus from a variety of sources. New research on phytoplankton–zooplankton interactions, and studies of planktivorous fish, might also provide insight about food web dynamics and potential “top-down” effects of fish predation on the plankton communities. In addition, further development of neural-network or other water-quality models would help to evaluate management strategies and provide forecasts of water-quality conditions. Finally, periodic future reassessments of the available data with the multivariate statistical tools used in this study would be helpful to assess whether and how plankton communities are changing, and to continue to shed light on the importance of factors shaping the plankton. Although certain types and sizes of algal blooms are undesirable, minimum phytoplankton populations are an important part of aquatic food webs and are needed to maintain healthy levels of DO in the river. By understanding the sources, characteristics, causal factors, and responses of the plankton communities, management strategies can be developed to improve DO conditions in the lower Tualatin River during the important summer low-flow period.

Oregon↗

Method comparisons for determining concentrations of metals in water samples used in studies of fish migratory histories

Signatures developed from metal concentrations in water and fish bony structures can be used to demonstrate migration of individual fish between connected water bodies. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the National Park Service and the Missouri Department of Conservation, compared two protocols for collecting and analyzing water samples for concentrations of several metals commonly used to develop metal signatures. In 2015, paired seasonal water samples were collected in two study areas incorporating three National Park Service units; paired water samples were collected using USGS protocols and simpler research protocols. Metal concentrations obtained using USGS and research protocols were compared using t-tests, percent differences, and simple linear regression analyses. Graphical plots of median values and measured ranges were used to compare ratios of strontium to calcium (Sr:Ca) and barium to calcium (Ba:Ca) obtained using the different protocols among individual stations within the two study areas. For stations on the Mississippi and St. Croix Rivers, ranges in concentrations of calcium, barium, and strontium (obtained using USGS protocols) were compared between samples collected from 1995 through 2012 and samples collected in this study. Comparisons were used to evaluate the long-term stability of metal concentrations in the environment. Collectively, results presented in this report demonstrated that research protocols provided metal concentration data that were similar to data obtained using USGS protocols for all compared metals except manganese. Holding times of 6–33 weeks prior to filtration and analyses for samples collected using research protocols may have caused greater changes in manganese concentrations compared to other metals. Strontium, barium, and calcium are the metals most commonly used in studies of fish migration, and concentrations of these metals were similar using different protocols. However, rivers within each study area were more easily distinguished from each other using metal concentration data obtained using USGS protocols compared to data obtained using research protocols. Information presented in this report can be used to develop studies that use identified metal signatures in connected water bodies and bony fish structures to demonstrate fish migration.

Mississippi National River and Recreation Area, Na↗