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USGS2023

Considering pollinators' ecosystem services in the remediation and restoration of contaminated lands: Overview of research and its gaps

The concept of ecosystem services provides a useful framework for understanding how people are affected by changes to the natural environment, such as when a contaminant is introduced (e.g., oil spills, hazardous substance releases) or, conversely, when contaminated lands are remediated and restored. Pollination is one example of an important ecosystem service; pollinators play a critical role in any functioning terrestrial ecosystem. Other studies have suggested that consideration of pollinators' ecosystem services could lead to better remediation and restoration outcomes. However, the associated relationships can be complex, and evaluation requires synthesis from numerous disciplines. In this article, we discuss the possibilities for considering pollinators and their ecosystem services when planning remediation and restoration of contaminated lands. To inform the discussion, we introduce a general conceptual model of how pollinators and the ecosystem services associated with them could be affected by contamination in the environment. We review the literature on the conceptual model components, including contaminant effects on pollinators and the direct and indirect ecosystem services provided by pollinators, and identify information gaps. Though increased public interest in pollinators likely reflects increasing recognition of their role in providing many important ecosystem services, our review indicates that many gaps in understanding—about relevant natural and social systems—currently impede the rigorous quantification and evaluation of pollinators' ecosystem services required for many applications, such as in the context of natural resource damage assessment. Notable gaps include information on non-honeybee pollinators and on ecosystem services beyond those benefitting the agricultural sector. We then discuss potential research priorities and implications for practitioners. Focused research attention on the areas highlighted in this review holds promise for increasing the possibilities for considering pollinators' ecosystem services in the remediation and restoration of contaminated lands.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗

USGS2019

Energetic status and bioelectrical impedance modeling of Arctic grayling Thymallus arcticus in interior Alaska Rivers

The energetic status of fishes represents energy stored as protein and lipids and reflects the ability of an individual to reproduce, migrate, and transition through life stages, ultimately influencing survival. However, traditional measurement methods, while highly accurate, are time consuming, expensive, and lethal, and nonlethal methods such as condition factor may not adequately characterize energetic status. We collected 161 Arctic grayling ( Thymallus arcticus ) from four interior Alaska river basins with varying hydrologic regimes during early summer and autumn seasons, and used multiple regression and model selection to evaluate the efficacy of bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA), a nonlethal condition assessment method, to predict percent dry mass and percent lipid content estimated from proximate analysis. We found that Arctic grayling energetic status varied across seasons, by sex, and fish from sites with spawning runs of Pacific salmon had higher energy content than those from sites without salmon, potentially due to the influence of salmon-derived food subsidies. Electrical measurements explained 82% and 80% of the variability in percent dry mass and percent total lipids, respectively, and top models showed high predictive performance (observed vs. predicted root mean squared error ≤2.2%). Overall, we found the BIA approach to provide rapid, precise, and non-lethal estimates of Arctic grayling body condition. Such an approach may be useful for future work to characterize Arctic grayling bioenergetics and monitor fish condition under a rapidly changing Arctic environment.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Stressor identification framework of biological impairment in Mississippi streams to support watershed restoration and TMDL development

The Clean Water Act (CWA) requires States to identify waters that are impaired for designated uses. These waters are published through a State’s §303(d) list. The CWA also requires that a total maximum daily load (TMDL) be completed for each water body to calculate the maximum amount of contaminants that can be present in that water body and still meet water-quality standards. The Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ) uses a statewide monitoring and assessment strategy to collect benthic macroinvertebrate community data to assess the health of streams and rivers and to identify impaired waters. Waters that are found to be impaired based on the macroinvertebrate community data are listed on the Mississippi §303(d) list, and the cause of impairment is listed as “biological impairment.” Although the CWA requires TMDLs to be developed for applicable contaminants identified in the §303(d) list, TMDLs cannot be computed for stream reaches in Mississippi listed for biological impairment because the actual stressors causing the impairment have not yet been determined. The MDEQ and other water-resource managers in Mississippi require a framework for stressor identification in biologically impaired streams and rivers. This report is organized to (1) provide a general overview of biological impairment and stressor identification in stream ecosystems and (2) provide a detailed framework for stressor identification of Mississippi streams that are biologically impaired. The intent is for the framework to reduce subjectivity, provide consistency, and allow for adaptation as the science evolves. The stressor identification framework for Mississippi involves six key steps: Define the impairment, List the candidate causes of impairment and develop a conceptual model, Compile all relevant data, Evaluate the data, Identify probable causes of impairment by using a weight-of-evidence approach, and Generate a report of results.

Mississippi↗

USGS2022

A geomorphic-process-based cellular automata model of colluvial wedge morphology and stratigraphy

The development of colluvial wedges at the base of fault scarps following normal-faulting earthquakes serves as a sedimentary record of paleoearthquakes and is thus crucial in assessing seismic hazard. Although there is a large body of observations of colluvial wedge development, connecting this knowledge to the physics of sediment transport can open new frontiers in our understanding. To explore theoretical colluvial wedge evolution, we develop a cellular automata model driven by the production and disturbance (e.g., bioturbative reworking) of mobile regolith and fault-scarp collapse. We consider both 90 and 60 ∘ dipping faults and allow the colluvial wedges to develop over 2000 model years. By tracking sediment transport time, velocity, and provenance, we classify cells into analogs for the debris and wash sedimentary facies commonly described in paleoseismic studies. High values of mobile regolith production and disturbance rates produce relatively larger and more wash-facies-dominated wedges, whereas lower values produced relatively smaller, debris-facies-dominated wedges. Higher lateral collapse rates lead to more debris facies relative to wash facies. Many of the modeled colluvial wedges fully developed within 2000 model years after the earthquake, with many being much faster when process rates are high. Finally, for scenarios with the same amount of vertical displacement, differently sized colluvial wedges developed depending on the rates of geomorphic processes and fault dip. A change in these variables, say by environmental change such as precipitation rates, could theoretically result in different colluvial wedge facies assemblages for the same characteristic earthquake rupture scenario. Finally, the stochastic nature of collapse events, when coupled with high disturbance, illustrates that multiple phases of colluvial deposition are theoretically possible for a single earthquake event.

Earth Surface Dynamics↗

USGS2024

A conceptual framework to assess post-wildfire water quality: State of the science and knowledge gaps

Wildfire substantially alters aquatic ecosystems by inducing moderate to catastrophic physical and chemical changes. However, the relations of environmental and watershed variables that drive those effects are complex. We present a Driver-Factor-Stressor-Effect (DFSE) conceptual framework to assess the current state of the science related to post-wildfire water-quality. We reviewed 64 peer-reviewed papers using the DFSE framework to identify drivers, factors, stressors, and effects associated with each study. A total of five drivers were identified and ranked according to their frequency of occurrence in the literature: atmospheric processes > fire characteristics > ecologic processes and characteristics > land surface characteristics > soil characteristics. Commonly reported stressors include increased nutrients, runoff, and sediment transport. Furthermore, although several different factors have been used at least once to explain water-quality effects, relatively few factors outside of precipitation and fire characteristics are frequently studied. We identified several gaps indicating the need for long-term monitoring, multi-factor studies, consideration of organic contaminants, consideration of groundwater, and inclusion of soil characteristics. This assessment expands on other reviews and meta-analyses by exploring causal linkages between influential variables and overall effects in post-wildfire watersheds. Information gathered from our assessment and the framework itself can be used to inform future monitoring plans and as a guide for modeling efforts focused on better understanding specific processes or to mitigate potential risks of post-wildfire water quality.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2026

Restoration is a partial but not complete solution for long-term declines in oyster populations—A case history from the northeastern Gulf of America

Objective We sought to evaluate whether oyster reef restoration is associated with sustained increases in intertidal eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica density in Suwannee Sound, Florida, and to examine how commercial fishing activity and freshwater discharge may modify those patterns. Methods We monitored intertidal oyster reefs for 14 years, including 9 years prior to large-scale restoration (completed in 2018) and 5 years of standardized postrestoration monitoring beginning in 2019 at Lone Cabbage Reef, an offshore intertidal reef complex that was rebuilt to target elevation using dolomite limestone. A Bayesian negative-binomial generalized linear mixed model framework estimated oyster densities while accounting for spatial differences among inshore, nearshore, and offshore reefs; variation in transect length; and temporal variability. We assessed restoration effectiveness via repeated-measures monitoring of fixed restored sites and landscape-scale comparisons of restored versus unrestored reefs. We evaluated covariates of management interest—commercial fishing activity and river discharge—using model comparison and posterior predictions of oyster density at observed covariate values. Results Restoration produced large per-area gains in live-oyster density on offshore reefs. At four fixed restored offshore stations, mean densities rose from near 0 to 91 oysters/m 2 (95% credible interval [CrI] = 43–185) within 6 months and reached 244 oysters/m 2 (95% CrI = 134–433) by year 5 at fixed restoration stations. At the broader landscape scale, restored offshore reefs averaged about 83 oysters/m 2 (95% CrI = 26–157) across sites and postrestoration periods, whereas model-based estimates for restored offshore reefs reached 218 oysters/m 2 (95% CrI = 128–366) in the final sampling period. Conclusions Restoring reef substrate rebuilt the physical capacity for oysters to persist and grow at Lone Cabbage Reef, yielding sustained density gains that degraded sites did not achieve on their own. Harvest status and river discharge showed weak, inconsistent associations once restoration was included, consistent with the interpretation that oyster cultch provides structural capacity, while environmental and fishing conditions modulate around it. Rebuilding and conserving oyster cultch constitute the essential first step to repair and sustain degraded oyster reefs; fishing regulations or favorable environmental conditions alone are unlikely to replace the need for reef structure.

Florida↗

USGS2016

Development of a CE-QUAL-W2 temperature model for Crystal Springs Lake, Portland, Oregon

During summer 2014, lake level, streamflow, and water temperature in and around Crystal Springs Lake in Portland, Oregon, were measured by the U.S. Geological Survey and the City of Portland Bureau of Environmental Services to better understand the effect of the lake on Crystal Springs Creek and Johnson Creek downstream. Johnson Creek is listed as an impaired water body for temperature by the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (ODEQ), as required by section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act. A temperature total maximum daily load applies to all streams in the Johnson Creek watershed, including Crystal Springs Creek. Summer water temperatures downstream of Crystal Springs Lake and the Golf Pond regularly exceed the ODEQ numeric criterion of 64.4 °F (18.0 °C) for salmonid rearing and migration. To better understand temperature contributions of this system, the U.S. Geological Survey developed two-dimensional hydrodynamic water temperature models of Crystal Springs Lake and the Golf Pond. Model grids were developed to closely resemble the bathymetry of the lake and pond using data from a 2014 survey. The calibrated models simulated surface water elevations to within 0.06 foot (0.02 meter) and outflow water temperature to within 1.08 °F (0.60 °C). Streamflow, water temperature, and lake elevation data collected during summer 2014 supplied the boundary and reference conditions for the model. Measured discrepancies between outflow and inflow from the lake, assumed to be mostly from unknown and diffuse springs under the lake, accounted for about 46 percent of the total inflow to the lake. Model simulations (scenarios) were run with lower water surface elevations in Crystal Springs Lake and increased shading to the lake to assess the relative effect the lake and pond characteristics have on water temperature. The Golf Pond was unaltered in all scenarios. The models estimated that lower lake elevations would result in cooler water downstream of the Golf Pond and shorter residence times in the lake. Increased shading to the lake would also provide substantial cooling. Most management scenarios resulted in a decrease in 7-day average of daily maximum values by about 2.0– 4.7 °F (1.1 –2.6 °C) for outflow from Crystal Springs Lake during the period of interest. Outflows from the Golf Pond showed a net temperature reduction of 0.5–2.7 °F (0.3–1.5 °C) compared to measured values in 2014 because of solar heating and downstream warming in the Golf Pond resulting from mixing with inflow from Reed Lake.

Oregon↗

USGS2009

Assessing rates of forest change and fragmentation in Alabama, USA, using the vegetation change tracker model

Forest change is of great concern for land use decision makers and conservation communities. Quantitative and spatial forest change information is critical for addressing many pressing issues, including global climate change, carbon budgets, and sustainability. In this study, our analysis focuses on the differences in geospatial patterns and their changes between federal forests and nonfederal forests in Alabama over the time period 1987–2005, by interpreting 163 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes using a vegetation change tracker (VCT) model. Our analysis revealed that for the most part of 1990 s and between 2000 and 2005, Alabama lost about 2% of its forest on an annual basis due to disturbances, but much of the losses were balanced by forest regeneration from previous disturbances. The disturbance maps revealed that federal forests were reasonably well protected, with the fragmentation remaining relatively stable over time. In contrast, nonfederal forests, which are predominant in area share (about 95%), were heavily disturbed, clearly demonstrating decreasing levels of fragmentation during the time period 1987–1993 giving way to a subsequent accelerating fragmentation during the time period 1994–2005. Additionally, the identification of the statistical relationships between forest fragmentation status and forest loss rate and forest net change rate in relation to land ownership implied the distinct differences in forest cutting rate and cutting patterns between federal forests and nonfederal forests. The forest spatial change information derived from the model has provided valuable insights regarding regional forest management practices and disturbance regimes, which are closely associated with regional economics and environmental concerns.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2010

Assessing allowable take of migratory birds

Legal removal of migratory birds from the wild occurs for several reasons, including subsistence, sport harvest, damage control, and the pet trade. We argue that harvest theory provides the basis for assessing the impact of authorized take, advance a simplified rendering of harvest theory known as potential biological removal as a useful starting point for assessing take, and demonstrate this approach with a case study of depredation control of black vultures (Coragyps atratus) in Virginia, USA. Based on data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and other sources, we estimated that the black vulture population in Virginia was 91,190 (95% credible interval = 44,520?212,100) in 2006. Using a simple population model and available estimates of life-history parameters, we estimated the intrinsic rate of growth (rmax) to be in the range 7?14%, with 10.6% a plausible point estimate. For a take program to seek an equilibrium population size on the conservative side of the yield curve, the rate of take needs to be less than that which achieves a maximum sustained yield (0.5 x rmax). Based on the point estimate for rmax and using the lower 60% credible interval for population size to account for uncertainty, these conditions would be met if the take of black vultures in Virginia in 2006 was < 3,533 birds. Based on regular monitoring data, allowable harvest should be adjusted annually to reflect changes in population size. To initiate discussion about how this assessment framework could be related to the laws and regulations that govern authorization of such take, we suggest that the Migratory Bird Treaty Act requires only that take of native migratory birds be sustainable in the long-term, that is, sustained harvest rate should be < rmax. Further, the ratio of desired harvest rate to 0.5 x rmax may be a useful metric for ascertaining the applicability of specific requirements of the National Environmental Protection Act.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2011

Dose-Response Calculator for ArcGIS

The Dose-Response Calculator for ArcGIS is a tool that extends the Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) ArcGIS 10 Desktop application to aid with the visualization of relationships between two raster GIS datasets. A dose-response curve is a line graph commonly used in medical research to examine the effects of different dosage rates of a drug or chemical (for example, carcinogen) on an outcome of interest (for example, cell mutations) (Russell and others, 1982). Dose-response curves have recently been used in ecological studies to examine the influence of an explanatory dose variable (for example, percentage of habitat cover, distance to disturbance) on a predicted response (for example, survival, probability of occurrence, abundance) (Aldridge and others, 2008). These dose curves have been created by calculating the predicted response value from a statistical model at different levels of the explanatory dose variable while holding values of other explanatory variables constant. Curves (plots) developed using the Dose-Response Calculator overcome the need to hold variables constant by using values extracted from the predicted response surface of a spatially explicit statistical model fit in a GIS, which include the variation of all explanatory variables, to visualize the univariate response to the dose variable. Application of the Dose-Response Calculator can be extended beyond the assessment of statistical model predictions and may be used to visualize the relationship between any two raster GIS datasets (see example in tool instructions). This tool generates tabular data for use in further exploration of dose-response relationships and a graph of the dose-response curve.

Data Series↗

USGS2025

Permafrost–wildfire interactions: active layer thickness estimates for paired burned and unburned sites in northern high latitudes

As the northern high-latitude permafrost zone experiences accelerated warming, permafrost has become vulnerable to widespread thaw. Simultaneously, wildfire activity across northern boreal forest and Arctic/subarctic tundra regions impacts permafrost stability through the combustion of insulating organic matter, vegetation, and post-fire changes in albedo. Efforts to synthesis the impacts of wildfire on permafrost are limited and are typically reliant on antecedent pre-fire conditions. To address this, we created the FireALT dataset by soliciting data contributions that included thaw depth measurements, site conditions, and fire event details with paired measurements at environmentally comparable burned and unburned sites. The solicitation resulted in 52 466 thaw depth measurements from 18 contributors across North America and Russia. Because thaw depths were taken at various times throughout the thawing season, we also estimated end-of-season active layer thickness (ALT) for each measurement using a modified version of the Stefan equation. Here, we describe our methods for collecting and quality-checking the data, estimating ALT, the data structure, strengths and limitations, and future research opportunities. The final dataset includes 48 669 ALT estimates with 32 attributes across 9446 plots and 157 burned–unburned pairs spanning Canada, Russia, and the United States. The data span fire events from 1900 to 2022 with measurements collected from 2001 to 2023. The time since fire ranges from 0 to 114 years. The FireALT dataset addresses a key challenge: the ability to assess impacts of wildfire on ALT when measurements are taken at various times throughout the thaw season depending on the time of field campaigns (typically June through August) by estimating ALT at the end-of-season maximum. This dataset can be used to address understudied research areas, particularly algorithm development, calibration, and validation for evolving process-based models as well as extrapolating across space and time, which could elucidate permafrost–wildfire interactions under accelerated warming across the high-northern-latitude permafrost zone. The FireALT dataset is available through the Arctic Data Center ( https://doi.org/10.18739/A2RN3092P , Talucci et al., 2024).

Arctic↗

USGS2019

Assessment of the potential for in-plume sulphur dioxide gas-ash interactions to influence the respiratory toxicity of volcanic ash

Background Volcanic plumes are complex environments composed of gases and ash particles, where chemical and physical processes occur at different temperature and compositional regimes. Commonly, soluble sulphate- and chloride-bearing salts are formed on ash as gases interact with ash surfaces. Exposure to respirable volcanic ash following an eruption is potentially a significant health concern. The impact of such gas-ash interactions on ash toxicity is wholly un-investigated. Here, we study, for the first time, whether the interaction of volcanic particles with sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) gas, and the resulting presence of sulphate salt deposits on particle surfaces, influences toxicity to the respiratory system, using an advanced in vitro approach. Methods To emplace surface sulphate salts on particles, via replication of the physicochemical reactions that occur between pristine ash surfaces and volcanic gas, analogue substrates (powdered synthetic volcanic glass and natural pumice) were exposed to SO 2 at 500 °C, in a novel Advanced Gas-Ash Reactor, resulting in salt-laden particles. The solubility of surface salt deposits was then assessed by leaching in water and geochemical modelling. A human multicellular lung model was exposed to aerosolised salt-laden and pristine (salt-free) particles, and incubated for 24 h. Cell cultures were subsequently assessed for biological endpoints, including cytotoxicity (lactate dehydrogenase release), oxidative stress (oxidative stress-related gene expression; heme oxygenase 1 and NAD(P)H dehydrogenase [quinone] 1) and its (pro-)inflammatory response (tumour necrosis factor α, interleukin 8 and interleukin 1β at gene and protein levels). Results In the lung cell model no significant effects were observed between the pristine and SO 2 -exposed particles, indicating that the surface salt deposits, and the underlying alterations to the substrate, do not cause acute adverse effects in vitro . Based on the leachate data, the majority of the sulphate salts from the ash surfaces are likely to dissolve in the lungs prior to cellular uptake. Conclusions The findings of this study indicate that interaction of volcanic ash with SO 2 during ash generation and transport does not significantly affect the respiratory toxicity of volcanic ash in vitro . Therefore, sulphate salts are unlikely a dominant factor controlling variability in in vitro toxicity assessments observed during previous eruption response efforts.

Environmental Research↗

USGS2007

Modeling the biophysical impacts of global change in mountain biosphere reserves

Mountains and mountain societies provide a wide range of goods and services to humanity, but they are particularly sensitive to the effects of global environmental change. Thus, the definition of appropriate management regimes that maintain the multiple functions of mountain regions in a time of greatly changing climatic, economic, and societal drivers constitutes a significant challenge. Management decisions must be based on a sound understanding of the future dynamics of these systems. The present article reviews the elements required for an integrated effort to project the impacts of global change on mountain regions, and recommends tools that can be used at 3 scientific levels (essential, improved, and optimum). The proposed strategy is evaluated with respect to UNESCO's network of Mountain Biosphere Reserves (MBRs), with the intention of implementing it in other mountain regions as well. First, methods for generating scenarios of key drivers of global change are reviewed, including land use/land cover and climate change. This is followed by a brief review of the models available for projecting the impacts of these scenarios on (1) cryospheric systems, (2) ecosystem structure and diversity, and (3) ecosystem functions such as carbon and water relations. Finally, the cross-cutting role of remote sensing techniques is evaluated with respect to both monitoring and modeling efforts. We conclude that a broad range of techniques is available for both scenario generation and impact assessments, many of which can be implemented without much capacity building across many or even most MBRs. However, to foster implementation of the proposed strategy, further efforts are required to establish partnerships between scientists and resource managers in mountain areas.

Mountain Research and Development↗

USGS1980

Appraisal of ground-water resources in the San Antonio Creek Valley, Santa Barbara County, California

A nearly threefold increase in demand for water in the 154-square-mile San Antonio Creek valley in California during the period 1958-77 has increased the potential for overdraft on the ground-water basin. The hydrologic budget for this period showed a perennial yield of about 9,800 acre-feet per year and an annual ground-water discharge of about 11,400 acre-feet per year, comprising net pumpage of 7,100 acre-feet, phreatophyte evapotranspiration of 3,000 acre-feet, and base streamflow of 1 ,300 acre-feet. The base flow in San Antonio Creek could diminish to zero when net pumpage reaches 13,500 acre-feet per year. The environmentally sensitive marshland area of Barka Slough may then become stressed as water normally lost through evapotranspiration is captured by pumpage. The aquifer consists of alluvial valley fill that ranges in thickness from 0 to 3,500 feet. Ground water moves seaward from recharge areas along mountain fronts to a consolidated rock barrier about 5 miles east of the Pacific coast. Upwelling of ground water just east of the barrier has resulted in the 550-acre Barka Slough. Transmissivity of the aquifer ranges from 2,600 to 34,000 feet squared per day, with the lowest values occurring in the central part of the valley where the aquifer is thickest but probably finer grained. The salinity problems are increasing in the agricultural parts of the valley, which is east of the barrier. West of the barrier, stream and ground-water quality is poor, owing to seepage of saline water from the marine shale that underlies the area at shallow depths. A proposed basinwide monitoring program includes 17 water-level sites, 12 water-quality sampling sites, 3 streamflow measuring sites, and periodic infrared aerial photography of Barka Slough. A computer model of the ground-water flow system could be developed to assess the impact of various water-management alternatives.

California↗

USGS2012

Adult tree swallow survival on the polychlorinated biphenyl-contaminated Hudson River, New York, USA, between 2006 and 2010

The upper Hudson River basin in east central New York, USA, is highly contaminated, primarily with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Reduced adult survival has been documented in tree swallows ( Tachycineta bicolor ) at a similarly PCB-contaminated river system in western Massachusetts. The purpose of the present study was to assess whether adult survival of tree swallows was likewise affected in the Hudson River basin. Between 2006 and 2010, a total of 521 female tree swallows were banded, of which 148 were retrapped at least once. The authors used Program MARK and an information theoretic approach to test the hypothesis that PCB contamination reduced annual survival of female tree swallows. The model that best described the processes that generated the capture history data included covariate effects of year and female plumage coloration on survival but not PCB/river. Annual survival rates of brown-plumaged females (mostly one year old) were generally lower (mean phi = 0.39) than those of blue-plumaged females (mean phi = 0.50, one year or older). Poor early spring weather in 2007 was associated with reduced survival in both plumage-color groups compared to later years. Models with the effects of PCB exposure on survival (all ΔAICc values >5.0) received little support.

New York↗

USGS2011

Estimating the Cumulative Ecological Effect of Local Scale Landscape Changes in South Florida

Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.

Florida↗

USGS2019

Assessing the feasibility of satellite-based thresholds for hydrologically driven landsliding

Elevated soil moisture and heavy precipitation contribute to landslides worldwide. These environmental variables are now being resolved with satellites at spatiotemporal scales that could offer new perspectives on the development of landslide warning systems. However, the application of these data to hydro-meteorological thresholds (which account for antecedent soil moisture and rainfall) first need to be evaluated with respect to proven, direct measurement-based thresholds that use rain gauges and in situ soil moisture sensors. Here, we compare ground-based hydrologic data to overlapping satellite-based data before, during, and after a recent season of widespread shallow landsliding in the San Francisco Bay Area (California, USA). We then explore how the remotely sensed information could be used to empirically define hypothetical thresholds for shallow landsliding. We find that the ground-based thresholds developed with a single monitoring station show superior performance because the in situ soil saturation data better reflect the gravity-dominated subsurface flow conditions that are characteristic of hillslopes during the rainy season. Although the satellite-based thresholds can identify most of the landslide days, they include a greater number of false alarms due to overestimates of soil moisture between major storm events. To avoid the type of false alarms that are characteristic of our satellite-based thresholds, further post-processing of the near-surface hydrologic response data to better reflect gravity-dominated drainage should be integrated into satellite-based model outputs. Our results encourage further deployment of ground stations in landslide-prone terrain and cautious exploration of satellite-based hydro-meteorological thresholds where in situ networks are nonexistent.

California↗

USGS2016

Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

Environmental Research Letters↗