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At least 1,225 records · Page 68Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Simulation of streamflow and the effects of brush management on water yields in the Double Mountain Fork Brazos River watershed, western Texas 1994–2013

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Lubbock and the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, developed and calibrated a Soil and Water Assessment Tool watershed model of the Double Mountain Fork Brazos River watershed in western Texas to simulate monthly mean streamflow and to evaluate the effects of brush management on water yields in the watershed, particularly to Lake Alan Henry, for calendar years 1994–2013. Model simulations were done to quantify the possible change in water yield of individual subbasins in the Double Mountain Fork Brazos River watershed as a result of the replacement of shrubland (brush) with grassland. The simulation results will serve as a tool for resource managers to guide brush-management efforts. The model was calibrated from 1994 through 2008 and validated from 2009 through 2013 with streamflow data collected at the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 08079600 Double Mountain Fork Brazos River at Justiceburg, Texas (hereinafter referred to as the “Justiceburg gage”). Simulated monthly mean streamflow showed agreement with measured monthly mean streamflow for the 1994–2013 study period: the percentage bias was +6, the coefficient of determination was 0.73, and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of model efficiency was 0.71. The calibrated watershed model was used to perform brush-management simulations. The National Land Cover Database 2006, which was the land-cover data used to develop the watershed model, was modified to simulate shrubland replacement with grassland in each of the 35 model subbasins. After replacement of shrubland with grassland in areas with land slope less than 20 percent and excluding riparian areas, the modeled 20-year (1994 through 2013) water yields to Lake Alan Henry increased by 114,000 acre-feet or about 5,700 acre-feet per year. In terms of the increase in water yield per acre of shrubland replaced with grassland, the average annual increase in water yield was 17,300 gallons per acre. Within the modeled subbasins, the increase in average annual water yield ranged from 5,850 to 34,400 gallons per acre of shrubland replaced with grassland. Subbasins downstream from the Justiceburg gage had a higher average annual increase in water yield (21,700 gallons per acre) than subbasins upstream from the streamflow-gaging station (16,800 gallons per acre).

Texas↗
USGS2017

Multi-model comparison highlights consistency in predicted effect of warming on a semi-arid shrub

A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance, and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi-model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species. To evaluate the climate sensitivity of A. tridentata , we developed four predictive models, two based on empirically derived spatial and temporal relationships, and two that applied mechanistic approaches to simulate sagebrush recruitment and growth. This approach enabled us to produce an aggregate index of climate change vulnerability and uncertainty based on the level of agreement between models. Despite large differences in model structure, predictions of sagebrush response to climate change were largely consistent. Performance, as measured by change in cover, growth, or recruitment, was predicted to decrease at the warmest sites, but increase throughout the cooler portions of sagebrush's range. A sensitivity analysis indicated that sagebrush performance responds more strongly to changes in temperature than precipitation. Most of the uncertainty in model predictions reflected variation among the ecological models, raising questions about the reliability of forecasts based on a single modeling approach. Our results highlight the value of a multi-model approach in forecasting climate change impacts and uncertainties and should help land managers to maximize the value of conservation investments.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS1983

Ground-water-use trends in the Twin Cities metropolitan area, Minnesota, 1880-1980

Detailed ground-water-use information from 1880 to 1980 has been collected and analyzed for the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Interpretation of historic water-use data was required to help water-resource planners and managers assess future trends in water use. Data were also needed for three computer-simulation models of ground-water flow being developed in the Twin Cities area. Methods were developed to collect, evaluate, store, and retrieve information from all local, State, and Federal agencies1 records and publications. A computerized water-use data base was constructed to facilitate generation of statistics on water-use trends and to store and retrieve data for the flow models. Ground-water use was analyzed by use category and aquifer and several trends were observed. Eighty percent of ground water currently withdrawn is from wells in the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer. Ground-water use increased from 1880 until the early 1970's, and then declined slightly in the late 1970's. Industrial use in particular declined during the 1970's as a result of conservation that was prompted by increased sewagetreatment and energy costs. The intensity of pumping has decreased within the St. Paul and Minneapolis city limits and increased outside the city limits. The seasonal variability of ground-water use became more pronounced as the percentage of water used for irrigation and air conditioning increased.

Minneosta↗
USGS2014

Spatially explicit modeling of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitat in Nevada and northeastern California: a decision-support tool for management

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus , hereafter referred to as “sage-grouse”) populations are declining throughout the sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystem, including millions of acres of potential habitat across the West. Habitat maps derived from empirical data are needed given impending listing decisions that will affect both sage-grouse population dynamics and human land-use restrictions. This report presents the process for developing spatially explicit maps describing relative habitat suitability for sage-grouse in Nevada and northeastern California. Maps depicting habitat suitability indices (HSI) values were generated based on model-averaged resource selection functions informed by more than 31,000 independent telemetry locations from more than 1,500 radio-marked sage-grouse across 12 project areas in Nevada and northeastern California collected during a 15-year period (1998–2013). Modeled habitat covariates included land cover composition, water resources, habitat configuration, elevation, and topography, each at multiple spatial scales that were relevant to empirically observed sage-grouse movement patterns. We then present an example of how the HSI can be delineated into categories. Specifically, we demonstrate that the deviation from the mean can be used to classify habitat suitability into three categories of habitat quality (high, moderate, and low) and one non-habitat category. The classification resulted in an agreement of 93–97 percent for habitat versus non-habitat across a suite of independent validation datasets. Lastly, we provide an example of how space use models can be integrated with habitat models to help inform conservation planning. In this example, we combined probabilistic breeding density with a non-linear probability of occurrence relative to distance to nearest lek (traditional breeding ground) using count data to calculate a composite space use index (SUI). The SUI was then classified into two categories of use (high and low-to-no) and intersected with the HSI categories to create potential management prioritization scenarios based oninformation about sage-grouse occupancy coupled with habitat suitability. This provided an example of a conservation planning application that uses the intersection of the spatially-explicit HSI and empirically-based SUI to identify potential spatially explicit strategies for sage-grouse management. Importantly, the reported categories for the HSI and SUI can be reclassified relatively easily to employ alternative conservation thresholds that may be identified through decision-making processes with stake-holders, managers, and biologists. Moreover, the HSI/SUI interface map can be updated readily as new data become available.

California;Nevada↗
USGS2020

Strategic Plan for the North American Breeding Bird Survey, 2020–30

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has been the cornerstone of continental bird conservation and management for hundreds of North American bird species in the United States and Canada for more than 50 years. This strategic plan was developed in collaboration with key partners and stakeholders and charts the ambitious course for the BBS over the next decade (2020–30). Using this plan as a guide, the BBS program will set out to improve the breadth and depth of standardized data collection and analytical products; ensure its products are widely used and recognized as the authoritative source for long-term population change information for most birds; and secure adequate resources, internally and through partnerships, to realize the expanded vision of the BBS intended to support avian management needs through 2030.

Circular↗
USGS2011

Multimodel inference and adaptive management

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS1980

Water resources thesaurus: A vocabulary for indexing and retrieving the literature of water resources research and development

This Water Resources Thesaurus encompasses such broad research areas as the hydrologic cycle, supply of and demand for water, conservation and best use of available supplies of water, methods of increasing supplies, and the economic, legal, social, engineering, recreational, biological, geographical, ecological, and qualitative aspects of water resources. This volume represents a major revision of the previous edition of the Thesaurus, published in 1971. The principal source of terms for this edition has been the indexing used in Selected Water Resources Abstracts (SWRA). Since its inception in 1968, SWRA has indexed tens of thousands of publications. Its indexing terminology has been developed by expert abstracters and researchers, and represents the range of disciplines related to research, development, and management of water resources.

Monograph↗
USGS2018

Incorporating productivity as a measure of fitness into models of breeding area quality of Arctic peregrine falcons

Using empirical location data from individuals to model habitat quality and species distributions is valuable towards understanding habitat use of wildlife, especially for conservation and management planning. Incorporating measures of reproductive success or survival into these models helps address the role of vital rates (a surrogate of fitness) in affecting a species’ distribution. We used 24-year datasets of Arctic peregrine falcon ( Falco peregrinus tundrius ) nest-site locations and productivity from the Colville River Special Area, Alaska, USA to model suitability of breeding habitat and the relative quality of used and potential nest sites. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression models and covariates describing nest-site productivity, area of surrounding prey habitat, geology, topography, and land-cover type to model and predict intensity of Arctic peregrine falcon nest-site use along the Colville River, and developed a predictive map of intensity of nest-site use. Regions of higher predicted intensity of use were characterized by steeper slopes, greater area of prey habitat, and higher average productivity, which are likely attributed to minimizing predation risk, gaining advantages for hunting, having sufficient prey resources, site quality, and overall fitness. Including productivity in intensity of nest-site use models improved the models, supporting our supposition that adding a fitness parameter enhanced the predictive capability of the species distribution model. Areas predicted to have higher intensity of use by our model can be used to focus efforts of continued protection of areas with frequently occupied and productive nest sites, and conversely, identify areas where protection of nest sites is likely to have few conservation benefits.

Alaska↗
USGS2005

Sediment-transport investigations of the upper Yellowstone River, Montana, 1999 through 2001: Data collection, analysis, and simulation of sediment transport

The upper Yellowstone River in Montana is an important State and national water resource, providing recreational, agricultural, and commercial benefits. Floods in 1996 and 1997, with recorded peak discharges having recurrence intervals close to 100 years, caused substantial streambank erosion and hill- slope mass wasting. Large quantities of sand-, gravel-, and cobble-sized material entrained by the flood flows became flood-bar deposits, creating a source of sediment available for transport during future floods. The flood damage and resulting sedimentation raised concerns about potential streambank-stabilization projects and how the river and riparian corridor might be managed in the future. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Park Conservation District, the Montana Department of Transportation, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, investigated sediment transport in the upper Yellowstone River near Livingston from 1999 through 2001 as part of a cumulative effects study to provide a scientific basis for future river management decisions. The purpose of this report is to present the results of data collection, analysis, and simulation of sediment transport for the upper Yellowstone River. The study area included a 13.5-mile study reach of the upper Yellowstone River where substantial sediment transport occurred in 1996 and 1997. In this study area, the upper Yellowstone River is a high gradient, coarse-bed stream having a slope of about 0.0028 foot per foot or more than 14 feet per mile. The study area drains about 3,551 square miles, and runoff results primarily from snowmelt during the spring and summer months. As part of sediment-transport investigations, the U.S. Geological Survey surveyed river cross sections, characterized streambed-material particle size using particle counts and sieve analyses, and collected bedload- and suspended-sediment data during three runoff seasons (1999-2001). Data were collected for stream discharges that ranged from 2,220 cubic feet per second (typical of pre- and post-runoff discharge) to 25,100 cubic feet per second (about 125 percent of bankfull discharge). The distribution of streambed-material particle size was determined, and sediment-transport curves for bedload discharge, suspended-sediment discharge, and total-sediment discharge were developed. The threshold values of streamflow and average stream velocity needed for initiation of bedload transport for selected sediment-size classes showed that little to no bedload was transported for an average stream velocity below about 3 feet per second, and the only particle size transported as bedload at that velocity was sand. Over the range of stream discharges sampled and with silt- and finer-sized particles excluded, bedload discharge averaged about 18 percent of the total-sediment discharge, equal to bedload discharge plus suspended-sediment discharge. At the lowest and highest stream discharges sampled, bedload was, respectively, less than about 2 percent and about 30 percent of the total-sediment discharge. Over the range of stream discharges sampled, the sand-sized part of the total suspended-sediment discharge averaged about 48 percent, where the total suspended-sediment discharge included sand-, silt- and finer-sized particles. At the lowest and highest stream discharges sampled, the sand-sized part of the total suspended-sediment discharge was, respectively, less than about 16 percent and about 50 percent of the total suspended-sediment discharge. The sediment-transport curves were compared to curves for selected sites in the western United States having drainage areas ranging from 21 square miles to over 20,000 square miles. Daily sediment loads transported at bankfull discharge were calculated for each site and results were plotted in relation to drainage area. Results based on the 1999-2001 data-collection period indicate that the estimated daily bedload transported at bankfull discharge in the upper Yellowstone River exceeded the envelope line that bounds the upper end of the data for other selected sites in the Northern Rocky Mountains and is similar in magnitude to that for selected sites in Alaska having braided channels and glacial and snowmelt runoff. Similar comparisons for suspended sediment indicate that daily suspended-sediment load at bankfull discharge is relatively high in the upper Yellowstone River, plotting slightly above the envelope line that bounds the upper end of the data for other selected sites in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Sediment data were used to develop individual transport equations for seven size classes of sediment ranging from small cobbles to very fine sand. A step-wise regression procedure relating sediment discharge to important hydraulic variables showed that average stream velocity was the only significant variable at the 95-percent confidence level. Bedload and suspended-sediment data and equations indicate that more sand is transported for a given velocity than any other particle size, and very little sand-size sediment load is transported below an average stream velocity of about 2.5 feet per second. Transport of coarser-sized sediment (limited to bedload) becomes very little for an average velocity less than about 3.5 feet per second. Results for the 1999-2001 data-collection period indicate that sediment transport in the upper Yellowstone River tends to be limited more by the transport capacity of the stream (capacity or transport limited), than to the availability of sediment in the watershed (supply limited). Sediment data collected and analyzed were used to simulate sediment transport in the study reach using the BRIdge Stream Tube model for Alluvial River Simulation, or BRI-STARS computer model. The model was calibrated and verified using selected data from historical runoff periods. Simulated total-sediment loads, on a reach-averaged basis, were in good agreement with the total-sediment loads determined from the transport curve for the 2-year flood hydrograph but were considerably smaller for the total-sediment loads determined from the transport curve for the 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood hydrographs. The differences probably were largely due to the inability of the model to simulate streambank erosion, hillslope mass-wasting, and other channel-widening processes, which had supplied substantial quantities of sediment to the channel during the 1996 and 1997 floods, and probably continued to contribute to the sediment load in the subsequent years (1999-2001) when the data were collected. Furthermore, the transport curve was applied beyond the measured data for the highest discharges, and may thus be unreliable. Also, the transport curve derived from only limited data may not apply over the full duration of the hydrograph and sediment might be transported over only a portion of the hydrograph, especially for rivers like the upper Yellowstone where snowmelt runoff predominates. The true sediment discharge is, therefore, unknown and might be closer to the simulated values than to the values calculated from the transport curve.

Montana↗
USGS2025

Methods for estimating selected low-flow statistics at gaged and ungaged stream sites in Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation, Office of Water Resources, computed selected at-site streamflow statistics at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in and near Massachusetts and developed regional regression equations for estimating selected streamflows at ungaged stream sites in Massachusetts. Two sets of regional regression equations were developed: (1) the “mainland” equations, for mainland Massachusetts excluding the area covered by the second set, and (2) the “southeastern” equations, for the Plymouth-Carver-Kingston-Duxbury aquifer area in southeastern Massachusetts and for Cape Cod. The regression equations and at-site statistics may be used by Federal, State, and local water managers in addressing water-resources issues relevant in Massachusetts. Regional regression analyses for the mainland equations were developed to estimate the following 27 streamflow statistics: 99-, 98-, 95-, 90-, 85-, 80-, 75-, 70-, 60-, and 50-percent flow durations; monthly June, July, August, and September 90- and 50-percent flow durations; February, June, and August median of the monthly means; harmonic mean; and medians of the following annual low-flow frequency statistics: 7-day; 7-day, 2-year; 7-day, 10-year; 30-day, 2-year; and 30-day, 10-year. The analyses used 81 streamgages with minimal to no regulations in and near Massachusetts. The regression analyses determined that four basin characteristics—drainage area, combined hydrologic soils A and B, streamflow variability index, and annual mean temperature—were the only significant explanatory variables for the different mainland equations. Regional regression equations were developed for the Plymouth-Carver-Kingston-Duxbury aquifer area in southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod, because surface-water drainage areas and groundwater contributing areas do not always coincide in this area of the State. The regression analyses to estimate 10 flow durations from the 99th to 50th percentiles used 18 streamflow sites with some occasional minor regulations—because there are few unregulated streams in southeastern Massachusetts. The analyses determined that groundwater contributing area and storage (combined water bodies and wetlands) were the only significant explanatory variables in the southeastern equations.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2024

Forest age is a primary trait filter for saproxylic beetles in the southeastern United States

Many forests throughout the world consist of regenerating mature stands. Although these forests differ in many respects from old-growth (with a history of minimal human disturbance), they typically develop similar structural attributes over time. As a result, older mature forests may be of particular conservation value if they contain resources and microhabitats benefitting saproxylic (deadwood dependent) species. Species’ response to forest age may be driven by traits that relate to ecological functions or habitat preferences, such that species with less compatible traits for a local forest environment are “filtered” out. Thus, forest age may influence species’ distributions and the trait composition of assembled communities.

Georgia↗
USGS2017

Experimental landscape reduction of wild rodents increases movements in the invasive brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis)

Experimental studies evaluating the effects of food availability on the movement of free-ranging animals generally involve food supplementation rather than suppression. Both approaches can yield similar insights, but we were interested in the potential for using food suppression for the management and control of invasive predators, in particular, the brown treesnake ( Boiga irregularis ) on Guam. However, understanding a species’ response to food resources is critical before employing such a strategy. We studied the movements of 24 radio-tagged B. irregularis initially caught within four 4-ha unfenced plots in rodent-abundant (control) and rodent-suppressed (treatment) grassland habitats over a 40-day period. Because monitoring duration differed among snakes, we also analyzed short-term (16-day) activity areas. Over the 16 days, snakes associated with rodent-suppressed plots had 86% larger activity areas (ha), 94% greater dispersal distances (m), and 43% greater movement rates (m/h) than snakes associated with control plots. Boiga irregularis moved extensively, but these movements were not always reflected in the size of the snake’s total activity area. Movement rates did not differ between sexes, but snakes in above-average body condition moved greater distances per hour than those in below-average condition irrespective of treatment. Our study indicates that a relatively small prey suppression effort can cause almost immediate and significant changes in B. irregularis movement. On Guam, prey suppression might enhance control efforts by either increasing trap capture success or discouraging snakes from entering areas of conservation or management concern. However, the outcome of using prey suppression as a control tool in areas threatened with the accidental introduction of the brown treesnake is more difficult to predict and might have negative consequences such as elevated dispersal rates.

Management of Biological Invasions↗
USGS2022

Haploid gynogens facilitate disomic marker development in paleotetraploid sturgeons

Acipenseriformes (sturgeons and paddlefishes) are of substantial conservation concern, and development of genomic resources for these species is difficult due to past whole genome duplication. Development of disomic markers for polyploid organisms can be challenging due to difficulty in resolving alleles at a single locus from those among duplicated loci. In this study, we detail the development of disomic markers for the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) found in North America. One of the strategies for pallid sturgeon conservation is to stock U.S. rivers with offspring of pure pallid sturgeon, but introgression with the sympatric shovelnose sturgeon ( S. platorynchus ) threatens pallid sturgeon genetic integrity. Currently, 19 microsatellite loci are used to differentiate between both species and their hybrids, but the markers are insufficient to robustly identify backcrosses. We performed double digest restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRADseq) on shovelnose sturgeon haploid gynogens to produce a reduced-representation genomic reference. Contiguous sequences that were heterozygous within a haploid individual were flagged as potentially encompassing multiple loci. Approximately 60 individuals of each species from two management units were sequenced, and reads were mapped to the haploid reference to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at individual loci. The final data set contained 11,082 microhaplotyped loci which offer at least an order of magnitude greater resolution for species discrimination than the current panel of 19 microsatellites. These markers will be used to examine a larger sample of Scaphirhynchus individuals throughout their ranges to determine the extent and trajectory of hybridization.

Molecular Ecology Resources↗
USGS2022

Managing multiple species with conflicting needs in the Greater Everglades

Given limited funding, natural resources decision making is riddled with tradeoffs, including which species or landscapes to prioritize for management action. Florida’s Everglades wetland is home to numerous indicator species, some of which are endangered. But with a multitude of species comes differing hydrologic requirements to yield appropriate foraging and breeding conditions for each. The Everglades ecosystem is highly managed, with water being moved across the landscape to meet the habitat and reproductive needs of species of concern. Predictive modeling can help water managers understand potential consequences to targeted water conditions. EverForecast is a novel spatially explicit, hydrologic, and ecological operational forecast developed to inform conservation management decisions. Not only does EverForecast provide probable near-term water conditions, but also predicted species responses to those hydrologic conditions. Using examples from two focal regions of the Everglades, we show the magnitude of impacts to a suite of species and an almost 70% decline in suitable conditions for one species when prioritizing water management to meet the needs of another species. Although EverForecast is a relatively new decision support tool, its hydrologic outputs are already commonly used to make water management recommendations because it provides near-term hydrologic forecasts that scientists and managers need for water operations decision making. Because species management decisions have historically been made to target a single species at a time, it may take longer for full utility of EverForecast’s ability to quantify tradeoffs among species to become integrated into decision making.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Assessing and implementing the concept of Blue Economy in Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries: Lessons from coupled human and natural systems

Inland fisheries often receive little to no attention in global discussions about sustainable development. The consequences of overlooking inland fisheries in sustainability dialogues are increasingly problematic as fisheries stressors (e.g., overharvest, species invasion, climate change, habitat modification) intensify. Elevating the global profile of inland fisheries requires an approach for quantifying and clearly conveying the ecological, economic, and societal values of these systems. One such approach involves the Blue Economy, a multifaceted concept initially used to describe the intersection of marine conservation and sustainable use of marine resources for economic growth. Although conceptually powerful, the Blue Economy has rarely been applied to inland waters and fisheries. To address this knowledge gap, we conceptualized Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries from a Blue Economy perspective. In particular, we evaluated the utility of the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) framework for characterizing the ecological, economic, and societal values of Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries and associated contributions to the Blue Economy (e.g., human livelihoods, food security, recreation, conservation, economic prosperity). There are numerous opportunities to leverage CHANS methods (e.g., metacoupling, telecoupling) and associated mathematical models to advance fisheries science, inform fisheries management, and ultimately move toward a Blue Economy in the Laurentian Great Lakes. To that end, we demonstrated applications of CHANS methods, discussed strategies for communicating with stakeholders, and provided insights for navigating challenges to developing a Blue Economy in the Laurentian Great Lakes—a model that could be used in the African Great Lakes and other large ecosystems in the world.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗
USGS2024

Evaluating an improved systems approach to wetland crediting: Consideration of wetland ecosystem services

The Chesapeake Bay Agreement (CBA) has numerous direct goals for improving habitat, living resources, and water quality, conserving lands, engaging communities and addressing a changing climate. To date, the progress toward the wetlands outcome (creation/ restoration of 85,000 acres and enhancement of 150,000 acres) has been very slow and the outcome is projected to be off course for 2025. Two specific confounding issues arise in efforts to achieve the Bay wetlands goal: 1) the idea that restoration is driven, and incentivized and accounted for, in order to meet the TMDL’s water quality (WQ) benefits, leaving habitat benefits undervalued; and 2) there is often tension between competing restoration priorities and financial resources among different Best Management Practice (BMP) types that include wetlands, such as wetland restoration/creation/rehabilitation, stream restoration, and the creation or restoration of forest buffers. The collaborative workshop “ Evaluating an Improved Systems Approach to Wetland Crediting: Consideration of Wetland Ecosystem Services ” was held March 22-23, 2022 to explore the wetland accounting system and provide insight on improved approaches to promote wetland projects toward the wetlands outcome. Four sessions were organized around topics of 1) Accounting, 2) Landscape Systems Approach, 3) Wetlands Projects and Co-Benefits, and 4) Management Implications and Recommendation Development with 21 presentations, Q and A and facilitated discussions. Acknowledgement of the limitations of the current management framework to achieve significant gains in wetland area supports the conclusion that absent significant adaptive management of wetlands efforts, any outcome for net wetlands gains beyond 2025 will be similarly confounded. Workshop findings included suggestions for how to approach restoration projects at a systems level (e.g., creek, shoreline reach, watershed) in order to maximize synergies for multiple ecological outcomes and ecosystem services. Recommendations for improvement on existing efforts, as well as new processes, tools and partnerships are suggested from the workshop’s analysis of the state of the science as considerations to increase implementation of wetlands projects.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗
USGS2015

Implementation of a framework for multi-species, multi-objective adaptive management in Delaware Bay

Decision analytic approaches have been widely recommended as well suited to solving disputed and ecologically complex natural resource management problems with multiple objectives and high uncertainty. However, the difference between theory and practice is substantial, as there are very few actual resource management programs that represent formal applications of decision analysis. We applied the process of structured decision making to Atlantic horseshoe crab harvest decisions in the Delaware Bay region to develop a multispecies adaptive management (AM) plan, which is currently being implemented. Horseshoe crab harvest has been a controversial management issue since the late 1990s. A largely unregulated horseshoe crab harvest caused a decline in crab spawning abundance. That decline coincided with a major decline in migratory shorebird populations that consume horseshoe crab eggs on the sandy beaches of Delaware Bay during spring migration. Our approach incorporated multiple stakeholders, including fishery and shorebird conservation advocates, to account for diverse management objectives and varied opinions on ecosystem function. Through consensus building, we devised an objective statement and quantitative objective function to evaluate alternative crab harvest policies. We developed a set of competing ecological models accounting for the leading hypotheses on the interaction between shorebirds and horseshoe crabs. The models were initially weighted based on stakeholder confidence in these hypotheses, but weights will be adjusted based on monitoring and Bayesian model weight updating. These models were used together to predict the effects of management actions on the crab and shorebird populations. Finally, we used a dynamic optimization routine to identify the state dependent optimal harvest policy for horseshoe crabs, given the possible actions, the stated objectives and our competing hypotheses about system function. The AM plan was reviewed, accepted and implemented by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission in 2012 and 2013. While disagreements among stakeholders persist, structured decision making enabled unprecedented progress towards a transparent and consensus driven management plan for crabs and shorebirds in Delaware Bay.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2017

Climate change and tree-line ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada: Habitat suitability modelling to inform high-elevation forest dynamics monitoring

Whitebark pine and foxtail pine serve foundational roles in the subalpine zone of the Sierra Nevada. They provide the dominant structure in tree-line forests and regulate key ecosystem processes and community dynamics. Climate change models suggest that there will be changes in temperature regimes and in the timing and magnitude of precipitation within the current distribution of these species, and these changes may alter the species’ distributional limits. Other stressors include the non-native pathogen white pine blister rust and mountain pine beetle, which have played a role in the decline of whitebark pine throughout much of its range. The National Park Service is monitoring status and trends of these species. This report provides complementary information in the form of habitat suitability models to predict climate change impacts on the future distribution of these species within Sierra Nevada national parks. We used maximum entropy modeling to build habitat suitability models by relating species occurrence to environmental variables. Species occurrence was available from 328 locations for whitebark pine and 244 for foxtail pine across the species’ distributions within the parks. We constructed current climate surfaces for modeling by interpolating data from weather stations. Climate surfaces included mean, minimum, and maximum temperature and total precipitation for January, April, July, and October. We downscaled five general circulation models for the 2050s and the 2090s from ~125 km2 to 1 km2 under both an optimistic and an extreme climate scenario to bracket potential climatic change and its influence on projected suitable habitat. To describe anticipated changes in the distribution of suitable habitat, we compared, for each species, climate scenario, and time period, the current models with future models in terms of proportional change in habitat size, elevation distribution, model center points, and where habitat is predicted to expand or contract. Overall, models indicated that suitable habitats for whitebark and foxtail pine are more likely to shift geographically within the parks by 2100 rather than decline precipitously. This implies park managers might focus conservation efforts on stressors other than climate change, working toward species resilience in the face of threats from introduced disease and elevated native insect damage. More specifically, further understanding of the incidence and severity of white pine blister rust and other stressors in high elevation white pines would help assess vulnerability from threats other than climate change.

California↗