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Arctic transitions in the Land - Atmosphere System (ATLAS): Background, objectives, results, and future directions

This paper briefly reviews the background, objectives, and results of the Arctic Transitions in the Land-Atmosphere System (ATLAS) Project to date and provides thoughts on future directions. The key goal of the ATLAS Project is to improve understanding of controls over spatial and temporal variability of terrestrial processes in the Arctic that have potential consequences for the climate system, i.e., processes that affect the exchange of water and energy with the atmosphere, the exchange of radiatively active gases with the atmosphere, and the delivery of freshwater to the Arctic Ocean. Three important conclusions have emerged from research associated with the ATLAS Project. First, associated with the observation that the Alaskan Arctic has warmed significantly in the last 30 years, permafrost is warming, shrubs are expanding, and there has been a temporary release of carbon dioxide from tundra soils. Second, the winter is a more important period of biological activity than previously appreciated. Biotic processes, including shrub expansion and decomposition, affect snow structure and accumulation and affect the annual carbon budget of tundra ecosystems. Third, observed vegetation changes can have a significant positive feedback to regional warming. These vegetation effects are, however, less strong than those exerted by land-ocean heating contrasts and the topographic constraints on air mass movements. The papers of this special section provide additional insights related to these conclusions and to the overall goal of ATLAS.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

High throughput computing: a solution for scientific analysis

Public land management agencies continually face resource management problems that are exacerbated by climate warming, land-use change, and other human activities. As the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) works with managers in U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) agencies and other federal, state, and private entities, researchers are finding that the science needed to address these complex ecological questions across time and space produces substantial amounts of data. The additional data and the volume of computations needed to analyze it require expanded computing resources well beyond single- or even multiple-computer workstations. To meet this need for greater computational capacity, FORT investigated how to resolve the many computational shortfalls previously encountered when analyzing data for such projects. Our objectives included finding a solution that would: harness existing Computer Processing Units (CPUs) when they're idle to run multiple jobs concurrently, which reduces the overall processing time without requiring additional hardware; offer an effective, centralized job-management system; handle job failures due to hardware, software, or network interruptions (obviating the need to manually resubmit the job after each stoppage); be affordable; and most importantly, allow us to complete very large, complex analyses that otherwise would not even be possible. In short, we envisioned a job-management system that would take advantage of unused FORT CPUs within a local area network (LAN) to effectively distribute and run highly complex analytical processes. What we found was a solution that uses High Throughput Computing (HTC) and High Performance Computing (HPC) systems to do exactly that (Figure 1).

Report↗

Future for polar bears in a declining sea ice environment: What do we know?

During an April 22, 2006, interview on the CBC radio program “The House,” Tim Flannery, author of the recent book “The Weathermakers,” stated, “Projections of the polar bear specialists are that by about 2030, around that date, the species will be extinct because of global warming induced changes in the Arctic sea ice.” That statement was followed on May 4th by quotations in the Toronto Globe and Mail from Dr. Mitch Taylor, a polar bear researcher in Nunavut, Canada, claiming, “polar bears have survived both warmer times and colder times than these,” that “nothing has melted the Arctic sea ice for 30 million years,” that “polar bears are remarkably adaptable,” and that “a warming climate might even benefit polar bears.”

Conference Paper↗

Landsat classification of surface-water presence during multiple years to assess response of playa wetlands to climatic variability across the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

To improve understanding of the distribution of ecologically important, ephemeral wetland habitats across the Great Plains, the occurrence and distribution of surface water in playa wetland complexes were documented for four different years across the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GPLCC) region. This information is important because it informs land and wildlife managers about the timing and location of habitat availability. Data with an accurate timestamp that indicate the presence of water, the percent of the area inundated with water, and the spatial distribution of playa wetlands with water are needed for a host of resource inventory, monitoring, and research applications. For example, the distribution of inundated wetlands forms the spatial pattern of available habitat for resident shorebirds and water birds, stop-over habitats for migratory birds, connectivity and clustering of wetland habitats, and surface waters that recharge the Ogallala aquifer; there is considerable variability in the distribution of playa wetlands holding water through time. Documentation of these spatially and temporally intricate processes, here, provides data required to assess connections between inundation and multiple environmental drivers, such as climate, land use, soil, and topography. Climate drivers are understood to interact with land cover, land use and soil attributes in determining the amount of water that flows overland into playa wetlands. Results indicated significant spatial variability represented by differences in the percent of playas inundated among States within the GPLCC. Further, analysis-of-variance comparison of differences in inundation between years showed significant differences in all cases. Although some connections with seasonal moisture patterns may be observed, the complex spatial-temporal gradients of precipitation, temperature, soils, and land use need to be combined as covariates in multivariate models to effectively account for these patterns. We demonstrate the feasibility of using classification of Landsat satellite imagery to describe playa-wetland inundation across years and seasons. Evaluating classifications representing only 4 years of imagery, we found significant year-to-year and state-to-state differences in inundation rates.

Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative↗

Broadening the focus of bat conservation and research in the USA for the 21st century

Appropriately, bat conservation in the USA during the 20th century focused on species that tend to aggregate in large numbers and locations (e.g. maternity roosts, hibernacula) where populations are most vulnerable. Extensive research into habitat needs (primarily for roosting) of reproductive females during the previous 2 decades has produced a wealth of information useful for developing conservation strategies for this group in their summer roost areas. However, the ecological needs of males, non-reproductive females, and juveniles have received far less attention, as have the ecological needs of all bats outside the pup-rearing season. Hence, it is unlikely that a single paradigm could comprehensively address conservation needs of all demographic groups within a species because they may have different seasonal distributions, reproductive strategies, and thermoregulatory needs. Herein, we recommend research into a wider spectrum of demographic groups and seasons to form a more holistic vision of the conservation needs of bats. We urge greater attention to understanding thermo-energetic and reproductive underpinnings of observed patterns of seasonal distribution and habitat selection by bats in the USA. Such understanding is instrumental for development of scientifically sound conservation strategies to confront emerging threats to conservation of bats in the 21st century: climate change, disease, habitat degradation, and environmental contaminants. We discuss interconnections among these emerging threats and the fundamental need to incorporate understanding of thermo-energetic strategies of bats in development of conservation strategies or legislation to mitigate potential impacts on bat populations of the USA.

Endangered Species Research↗

Establishing a definition of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) health: A guide to research and management activities

The meaning of health for wildlife and perspectives on how to assess and measure health, are not well characterized. For wildlife at risk, such as some polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations, establishing comprehensive monitoring programs that include health status is an emerging need. Environmental changes, especially loss of sea ice habitat, have raised concern about polar bear health. Effective and consistent monitoring of polar bear health requires an unambiguous definition of health. We used the Delphi method of soliciting and interpreting expert knowledge to propose a working definition of polar bear health and to identify current concerns regarding health, challenges in measuring health, and important metrics for monitoring health. The expert opinion elicited through the exercise agreed that polar bear health is defined by characteristics and knowledge at the individual, population, and ecosystem level. The most important threats identified were in decreasing order: climate change, increased nutritional stress, chronic physiological stress, harvest management, increased exposure to contaminants, increased frequency of human interaction, diseases and parasites, and increased exposure to competitors. Fifteen metrics were identified to monitor polar bear health. Of these, indicators of body condition, disease and parasite exposure, contaminant exposure, and reproductive success were ranked as most important. We suggest that a cumulative effects approach to research and monitoring will improve the ability to assess the biological, ecological, and social determinants of polar bear health and provide measurable objectives for conservation goals and priorities and to evaluate progress.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Structure and composition of a watershed-scale sediment information network

A 'Watershed-Scale Sediment Information Network' (WaSSIN), designed to complement UNESCO's International Sedimentation Initiative, was endorsed as an initial project by the World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research. WaSSIN is to address global fluvial-sediment information needs through a network approach based on consistent protocols for the collection, analysis, and storage of fluvial-sediment and ancillary information at smaller spatial scales than those of the International Sedimentation Initiative. As a second step of implementation, it is proposed herein that the WaSSIN have a general structure of two components, (1) monitoring and data acquisition and (2) research. Monitoring is to be conducted in small watersheds, each of which has an established database for discharge of water and suspended sediment and possibly for bed load, bed material, and bed topography. Ideally, documented protocols have been used for collecting, analyzing, storing, and sharing the derivative data. The research component is to continue the collection and interpretation of data, to compare those data among candidate watersheds, and to determine gradients of fluxes and processes among the selected watersheds. To define gradients and evaluate processes, the initial watersheds will have several common attributes. Watersheds of the first group will be: (1) six to ten in number, (2) less than 1000 km2 in area, (3) generally in mid-latitudes of continents, and (4) of semiarid climate. Potential candidate watersheds presently include the Weany Creek Basin, northeastern Australia, the Zhi Fanggou catchment, northern China, the Eshtemoa Watershed, southern Israel, the Metsemotlhaba River Basin, Botswana, the Aiuaba Experimental Basin, Brazil, and the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, southwestern United States.

International Journal of Sediment Research↗

Late-Holocene fossil rodent middens from the Arica region of northernmost Chile

Identification of >40 taxa of plant macrofossils in 14 rodent (Abrocoma) middens collected from 2800 to 3590 m elevation at the latitude of Arica, Chile (18??S) provide snapshots of vegetation in the northernmost Atacama Desert over the past 3000 years. Midden floras show considerable stability throughout the late Holocene, which may be due in part to the broad elevational ranges of many perennial species and midden insensitivity to changes in plant community structure. The greatest variability is found in annuals in the Prepuna, a climatically sensitive zone. This variability, however might also arise from the brevity of midden depositional episodes. As the first midden record from the Arica-Parinacota Region (Chile's northernmost administrative region), this study demonstrates the potential for future midden research in this area. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

Millennial-scale variability in the local radiocarbon reservoir age of south Florida during the Holocene

A growing body of research suggests that the marine environments of south Florida provide a critical link between the tropical and high-latitude Atlantic. Changes in the characteristics of water masses off south Florida may therefore have important implications for our understanding of climatic and oceanographic variability over a broad spatial scale; however, the sources of variability within this oceanic corridor remain poorly understood. Measurements of ΔR, the local offset of the radiocarbon reservoir age, from shallow-water marine environments can serve as a powerful tracer of water-mass sources that can be used to reconstruct variability in local-to regional-scale oceanography and hydrology. We combined radiocarbon and U-series measurements of Holocene-aged corals from the shallow-water environments of the Florida Keys reef tract (FKRT) with robust statistical modeling to quantify the millennial-scale variability in ΔR at locations with (“nearshore”) and without (“open ocean”) substantial terrestrial influence. Our reconstructions demonstrate that there was significant spatial and temporal variability in ΔR on the FKRT during the Holocene. Whereas ΔR was similar throughout the region after ∼4000 years ago, nearshore ΔR was significantly higher than in the open ocean during the middle Holocene. We suggest that the elevated nearshore ΔR from ∼8000 to 5000 years ago was most likely the result of greater groundwater influence associated with lower sea level at this time. In the open ocean, which would have been isolated from the influence of groundwater, ΔR was lowest ∼7000 years ago, and was highest ∼3000 years ago. We evaluated our open-ocean model of ΔR variability against records of local-to regional-scale oceanography and conclude that local upwelling was not a significant driver of open-ocean radiocarbon variability in this region. Instead, the millennial-scale trends in open-ocean ΔR were more likely a result of broader-scale changes in western Atlantic circulation associated with an increase in the supply of equatorial South Atlantic water to the Caribbean and shifts in the character of South Atlantic waters resulting from variation in the intensity of upwelling off the southwest coast of Africa. Because accurate estimates of ΔR are critical to precise calibrations of radiocarbon dates from marine samples, we also developed models of nearshore and open-ocean ΔR versus conventional 14 C ages that can be used for regional radiocarbon calibrations for the Holocene. Our study provides new insights into the patterns and drivers of oceanographic and hydrologic variability in the Straits of Florida and highlights the value of the paleoceanographic records from south Florida to our understanding of Holocene changes in climate and ocean circulation throughout the Atlantic.

Florida↗

Adaptation and response in drylands: A dryland research agenda and campaign strategy

Dryland ecosystems cover 41% of Earth's land surfaces, account for 44% of cultivated lands and 60% of food sources, and make large contributions to the global water and carbon cycles. However, these ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented extremes including heatwaves, floods, and droughts as well as hotter temperatures and often declining water resource availability. These ecosystems are some of the most challenging to monitor given their high temporal variability with rapid response to their environment as well as vast spatial variability with intermixing of different plant species and life forms amongst bare soil coverage. The Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID) campaign was selected by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) as a scoping study to develop a research agenda for a dryland field campaign. Here, we detail our ARID science research agenda and implementation plan that were developed based on an extensive community engagement effort in over 160 events with over a thousand scientists, land managers, and Tribal communities between 2023 and 2024. The selected science themes cover drought and climate variability, ecosystem structure, function, and biodiversity, carbon cycle interannual variability and trends, and social ecological systems (land management and adaptation). We then detail our remote sensing, modeling, and field-based strategies to capture high temporal and high spatial resolution processes. Finally, our implementation strategy is presented which includes focus area selections in a core intensive western U.S. domain and distributed international domains. This strategy includes our overarching guiding principles of using multi-temporal airborne acquisitions and super sites as well as enhancing land management in co-development with end-user partners. While originally developed for NASA, our ARID report creates a blueprint for any future dryland field campaign, at any scale, that can be implemented widely for foundational and applied science objectives.

Global Change Biology↗

Quantitative and qualitative approaches to identifying migration chronology in a continental migrant

The degree to which extrinsic factors influence migration chronology in North American waterfowl has not been quantified, particularly for dabbling ducks. Previous studies have examined waterfowl migration using various methods, however, quantitative approaches to define avian migration chronology over broad spatio-temporal scales are limited, and the implications for using different approaches have not been assessed. We used movement data from 19 female adult mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) equipped with solar-powered global positioning system satellite transmitters to evaluate two individual level approaches for quantifying migration chronology. The first approach defined migration based on individual movements among geopolitical boundaries (state, provincial, international), whereas the second method modeled net displacement as a function of time using nonlinear models. Differences in migration chronologies identified by each of the approaches were examined with analysis of variance. The geopolitical method identified mean autumn migration midpoints at 15 November 2010 and 13 November 2011, whereas the net displacement method identified midpoints at 15 November 2010 and 14 November 2011. The mean midpoints for spring migration were 3 April 2011 and 20 March 2012 using the geopolitical method and 31 March 2011 and 22 March 2012 using the net displacement method. The duration, initiation date, midpoint, and termination date for both autumn and spring migration did not differ between the two individual level approaches. Although we did not detect differences in migration parameters between the different approaches, the net displacement metric offers broad potential to address questions in movement ecology for migrating species. Ultimately, an objective definition of migration chronology will allow researchers to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the extrinsic factors that drive migration at the individual and population levels. As a result, targeted conservation plans can be developed to support planning for habitat management and evaluation of long-term climate effects.

PLoS ONE↗

Mineralogic Causes of Variations in Magnetic Susceptibility of Late Pleistocene and Holocene Sediment from Great Salt Lake, Utah

We describe here results of magnetic susceptibility (MS) measurements and magnetic mineralogy of sediments sampled in three cores from the south basin of Great Salt Lake. The cores were obtained in 1996 with a Kullenburg-type piston corer at sites in close proximity: core 96-4 at 41 deg 01.00' N, 112 deg 28.00' W and cores 96-5 and 96-6 at 41 deg 00.09' N, 112 deg 23.05' W. Cores 96-5 (2.16 m long) and -6 combine to make a composite 11.31-m sediment record. Sediments in core 96-4 (5.54 m long) correspond to the approximate depth interval of 3.9-9.6 m in the composite core of 96-5 and -6 based on similarities in the MS records as described below. The central goal of the research was to provide a sediment record of paleoenvironmental change in the northeastern Basin and Range Province over the past 40,000 years. Specific targets included a sedimentologic record of lake-level change combined with a pollen record of climatic change.

Open-File Report↗

“Our vanishing glaciers”: One hundred years of glacier retreat in Three Sisters Area, Oregon Cascade Range

In August 1910, thirty-nine members of the Mazamas Mountaineering Club ascended the peaks of the Three Sisters in central Oregon. While climbing, geologist Ira A. Williams photographed the surrounding scenery, including images of Collier Glacier. One hundred years later, U.S. Geological Survey research hydrologist Jim E. O’Connor matched those documented photographs with present day images — the result of which is a stunning lapse of glacial change in the Three Sister region. O’Connor asserts that “glaciers exist by the grace of climate,” and through a close examination of the history of the region’s glaciers, he provides an intriguing glimpse into the history of geological surveys and glacial studies in the Pacific Northwest, including their connection to significant scientific advances of the nineteenth century. The work of scientists and mountaineers who have monitored and recorded glacier changes for over a century allows us to see dramatic changes in a landscape that is especially sensitive to ongoing climate change.

Oregon↗

Late-Holocene fossil rodent middens from the Arica region of northernmost Chile

Identification of >40 taxa of plant macrofossils in 14 rodent (Abrocoma) middens collected from 2800 to 3590 m elevation at the latitude of Arica, Chile (18°S) provide snapshots of vegetation in the northernmost Atacama Desert over the past 3000 years. Midden floras show considerable stability throughout the late Holocene, which may be due in part to the broad elevational ranges of many perennial species and midden insensitivity to changes in plant community structure. The greatest variability is found in annuals in the Prepuna, a climatically sensitive zone. This variability, however might also arise from the brevity of midden depositional episodes. As the first midden record from the Arica-Parinacota Region (Chile's northernmost administrative region), this study demonstrates the potential for future midden research in this area.

Arica-Parinacota Region↗

Alaska Landbird Conservation Plan

Alaska is a land of extremes. The diversity of its avifauna reflects the heterogeneity of its landscape, with more than 500 species of birds recorded in the state. Species inhabiting primarily terrestrial habitats, known collectively as landbirds, constitute the largest and most ecologically diverse component of the Alaska avifauna. Habitats used by landbirds range from temperate rainforests in southeastern Alaska to Arctic tundra across much of northern Alaska. Most of these landbird species are migratory, and four major global migration flyways converge on rich breeding areas in Alaska. Alaska has one endemic landbird species, the McKay’s Bunting, and is home to an impressive number of landbird populations for which it hosts a large proportion of the regional, continental, or global population. Thus, Alaska has a significant stewardship responsibility for these particular landbird species and subspecies. Habitats in Alaska remain largely pristine due to the region’s remote nature, vast size, and small human population. Alaska’s growing population and attendant economic development, however, present many challenges that could affect all wildlife, including landbirds. Threats in Alaska are often considered to be less significant than those occurring elsewhere, where habitats are being altered by more rapidly increasing anthropogenic pressures, but they carry far-reaching consequences nonetheless. Habitats and ecosystem dynamics are changing rapidly due to the magnitude of climate warming at high latitudes. As such, effective landbird conservation in Alaska requires a broad, landscape-scale approach. Conservation of landbirds over such an extensive and diverse landscape also demands that we integrate efforts in habitat management, population monitoring, research, education, and outreach at local, regional, continental, and international scales. Information on distribution and habitat requirements of landbirds should be incorporated into land-use planning decisions. Synthesizing information on distribution and population trends of landbirds is a critical, time-sensitive task. Such information should be provided in a form that is readily available to land managers and policy decision-makers. The primary objectives of this plan are to (1) describe the region and Alaska’s landbird avifauna; (2) identify species of concern, important habitats, and key information needs; (3) highlight major conservation issues and threats to landbirds; and (4) identify potential conservation actions. We first examine landbird conservation at the statewide level within broad perspectives (regional, continental, and global), then take a detailed look at the specific issues, information needs, and potential conservation actions within each Bird Conservation Region in Alaska.

Alaska↗

A strategy for mapping mid-scale existing vegetation in support of national fire fuel assessment

Geospatial distribution of natural vegetation is among the very important environmental parameters required for applications ranging from global climate change to monitoring of natural hazards, monitoring of ecosystem vitality, and fire management practices. Increasingly sophisticated applications require vegetation datasets to cover large areas at a suitable scale and provide sufficiently detailed information. In this paper, we describe a research effort to develop a remote sensing methodology capable of producing 30-meter resolution, wall-to-wall coverage of existing vegetation types and structure variables in support of a multi-agency fire fuels and fire risks assessment project. Success of this remote sensing research effort is dependent on improved sensor and data qualities, a thorough understanding of regional and local vegetation ecology, successful integration of remote sensing with a large amount of field plot data, and flexible mapping algorithms. Preliminary results produced in the Wasatch Range and Uinta Mountains of central Utah include 28 vegetation types with an overall accuracy of 60% (average by life forms), percent canopy density (sub-pixel density) of forest, shrub, and herbaceous cover (correlation coefficient of 89, 60, and 55% respectively), and average top canopy height of forest, shrub, and herbaceous cover (correlation coefficient of 73, 50, 20% respectively). Techniques to improve the first-round results are discussed, including refinements of mapping models and use of relevant environmental gradients and potential vegetation classification associated with actual vegetation types.

Conference Paper↗

Spatial and temporal patterns in conterminous United States streamflow characteristics

Spatial and temporal patterns in annual and seasonal minimum, mean, and maximum daily streamflow values were examined for a set of 516 reference stream gauges located throughout the conterminous United States for the period 1951–2009. Cluster analysis was used to classify the stream gauges into 14 groups based on similarity in their temporal patterns of streamflow. The results indicated that the temporal patterns in flow metrics (1) have strong spatial coherence within each region, (2) are similar among the three annual flow metrics and the four seasonal flow metrics within each region, (3) indicate some small magnitude trends over time, and (4) are only weakly associated with well-known climate indices. We conclude that most of the temporal variability in flow is unpredictable in terms of relations to climate indices and infer that, for the most part, future changes in flow characteristics cannot be predicted by these indices.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Duration and structure of the past four interglaciations

Reanalysis and additional dating of the Devils Hole ??18O paleotemperature record confirm that the last interglaciation in the Great Basin (the continental analog of marine isotopic substage 5e) lasted ???22,000 yr, consistent with the Vostok paleotemperature record which suggests a duration of ???19,000 yr for this event in Antarctica. The three preceding interglaciations in the Devils Hole record (analogs of marine isotopic substages 7e, 9c, and 11c) range from 20,000 to 26,000 yr in duration. A ???20,000-yr duration for the last interglaciation is consistent with TIMS uranium-series dated sea-level high stands. Thus, the widely held view that interglaciations were of 11,000-to 13,000-yr duration and constituted only about 10% of mid-to-late Pleistocene climatic cycles needs reexamination. The warmest portion of each interglaciation in the Devils Hole time series is marked by a ??18O plateau, signifying apparent climatic stability for periods of 10,000-to 15,000-yr duration. ?? 1997 University of Washington.

Quaternary Research↗