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At least 1,225 records · Page 68Linked to original sources

USGS2013

Autumn monitoring of resident avifauna on Guana Island, British Virgin Islands

Although the Caribbean region is considered a biodiversity hotspot and a priority for ecological conservation efforts, little information exists on population trends of West Indian landbirds. We combined avian survey data collected from three studies spanning a 16-year period on a small island with a minimal human presence in the British Virgin Islands. Although abundances varied among surveys, the same species were detected with rare exceptions. Despite stability in species composition, the resident landbirds were variable in their individual detectabilities. Survey detections relatively mirrored net captures for some species, but are quite different for others. We suspect that this is likely due to differences in detectability due to species-specific behaviors mediated by environmental conditions, such as rainfall, during the month or months prior to our surveys. It is difficult to assess the influence of timing or amount of precipitation on bird detections rates among our surveys due to a lack of consistent collection of location-specific weather data in the British Virgin Islands. Our study suggests monitoring efforts conducted in concert with collection of site-specific climate data would facilitate improved interpretation of survey data and a better understanding of avian species response to climate mediated changes.

Ornitologia Neotropical↗

USGS2012

Wintering waterfowl respond to Wetlands Reserve Program lands in the Central Valley of California

Daytime use by wintering waterfowl at Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP) sites within the northern Central Valley of California (CVC) increased dramatically after wetland restoration and was sustained for up to 8 years post-restoration. The magnitude of the increase in waterfowl density at WRP sites after wetland restoration was greater with greater densities of birds in the local area before restoration, lower amount of surrounding wetland habitat within a 1.5-km radius, greater increase in flooding after restoration, and closer proximity to flooded rice fields. Estimates of waterfowl distribution within areas sampled by weather surveillance radar suggest that 18 percent of wintering waterfowl use the more than 67,900 acres of restored and unrestored land enrolled in the WRP. Restored wetland habitat within WRP sites made up about 8 percent (30,360 acres) of the total wetland habitat within the CVC in 2007. Waterfowl use of flooded rice fields during the daytime and during wetter winters nearly tripled from 1995 to 2007 relative to use of natural wetland habitats. Recommendations An additional 104,000 acres of seasonal wetland restoration are needed to meet waterfowl conservation objectives in the CVC ( Central Valley Joint Venture 2006). Active restoration of hydrology and moist-soil management on WRP sites can help meet this objective. Waterfowl use of WRP sites can also be improved by locating sites close to flooded rice fields within local landscapes that have high pre-existing waterfowl abundance and relatively little wetland habitat. The assessment team developed spatially explicit decision support tools for prioritizing future WRP enrollments. The tools map the predicted post-restoration magnitude of waterfowl use based on site and local landscape variables.

California↗

USGS2024

Salmon data mobilization

Despite substantial research and conservation efforts, many salmon populations are in decline. Globally, salmon research is not delivering effective decision support products to help managers apply research insights as informed management actions. Data Mobilization (DM) is a key step towards building the wider evidence base required to deliver accountable, reliable, and usable scientific advice to managers. Best practices for DM are being adopted throughout the scientific community but have not permeated deeply into the culture of salmon research and conservation. To address this, we present a strategy for Salmon Data Mobilization (SDM). This strategy defines three spheres of agencies and practitioners that must interact to advance SDM: (1) authoritative bodies that can create policies to support SDM uptake; (2) agencies that can promote, fund, and implement those policies; and (3) the broad salmon community of practice that can support uptake of SDM within focused interest groups. We sketch a future for SDM and propose functional changes required to improve it throughout the community.

North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission Bulletin↗

USGS2000

Postbreeding movements of American Avocets and implications for wetland connectivity in the western Great Basin

Wetlands in the western Great Basin of the United States are patchily distributed and undergo extensive seasonal and annual variation in water levels. The American Avocet ( Recurvirostra americana ) is one of many shorebird species that use these wetlands as breeding and migratory stopover sites and must adjust to variable conditions. We used radio telemetry to determine postbreeding, premigratory movement patterns of avocets throughout the region. In 1996 and 1997, 185 breeding adults were captured and fitted with radio transmitters at five breeding areas in Oregon, California, and Nevada. Regular aerial and ground surveys were conducted at the five main study areas from June through September, or until all avocets had left a site. Other wetlands in the western Great Basin also were surveyed by aircraft for the presence of radio-marked birds. Fifty-six percent of radio-marked avocets were still detected in the region at least eight weeks after capture. Each of these individuals was detected at an average of 2.1 lakes (range 0 to 6), with 74% found at more than one lake system. Forty radio-marked individuals moved at least 200 km between wetlands prior to migration, most of which dispersed northward. Male and female patterns did not differ significantly. Overall, movements may be associated with a prebasic molt, exploitation of a superabundant food source in northern lakes, and reconnaissance for future breeding efforts or staging sites. These results also demonstrate wide-ranging patterns of dispersal in this species and suggest a need for the consideration of large-scale habitat connectivity issues in establishing conservation strategies for shorebirds in the western Great Basin.

The Auk↗

USGS2021

Comparative genomics analyses support the reclassification of Bisgaard taxon 40 as Mergibacter gen. nov., with Mergibacter septicus sp. nov. as type species: Novel insights into the phylogeny and virulence factors of a Pasteurellaceae family member associated with mortality events in seabirds

The Pasteurellaceae family has been associated with fatal diseases in numerous avian species. Several new taxa within this family, including Bisgaard taxon 40, have been recently described in wild birds, but their genomic characteristics and pathogenicity are not well understood. We isolated Bisgaard taxon 40 from four species of seabirds, including one sampled during a mass, multi-species mortality event in Florida, United States. Here, we present a comprehensive phenotypic and genetic characterization of Bisgaard taxon 40 and comparative genomic analysis with reference strains from the Pasteurellaceae family, aiming at determining its phylogenetic position, antimicrobial susceptibility profile, and identifying putative virulence factors. In silico multilocus sequence-based and whole-genome-based phylogenetic analysis clustered all Bisgaard taxon 40 strains together on a distinct branch separated from the other members of the Pasteurellaceae family, indicating that Bisgaard taxon 40 could represent a new genus. These findings were further supported by protein similarity analyses using the concatenation of 31 conserved proteins and other taxonomic approaches such as the percentage of conserved protein test. Additionally, several putative virulence factors were identified, including those associated with adhesion (capsule, ompA , ompH ) and colonization ( exbD , fur , galU , galE , lpxA , lpxC , and kdsA ) of the host and a cytolethal distending toxin ( cdt ), which may have played a role in disease development leading to the mortality event. Considerably low minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) were found for all the drugs tested, in concordance with the absence of antimicrobial resistance genes in these genomes. The novel findings of this study highlight genomic and phenotypic characteristics of this bacterium, providing insights into genome evolution and pathogenicity. We propose a reclassification of these organisms within the Pasteurellaceae family, designated as Mergibacter gen. nov., with Mergibacter septicus sp. nov. as the type species. The type strain is Mergibacter septicus A25201 T (=DSM 112696).

Frontiers in Microbiology↗

USGS2024

Evaluation of data collected by Guam Division of Aquatic and Wildlife Resources during population establishment and monitoring of ko'ko' (Hypotaenidia owstoni) on Rota, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and wildlife monitoring datasets on Cocos Island and Guam

Efforts to recover the critically endangered ko’ko’ (Guam rail, Hypotaenidia owstoni) through establishing an experimental population on the island of Rota in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands have been ongoing for three decades. The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with the Guam Division of Aquatic and Wildlife Resources and the Government of Guam to evaluate whether objectives for three projects can be met with current protocols. The aim of this report was to evaluate existing data provided on (1) ko’ko’ population monitoring on Rota; (2) ko’ko’ population establishment on Rota; plus (3) evaluation of three wildlife monitoring datasets for ko’ko’ on Cocos Island, endangered pulattat (Mariana common moorhen, Gallinula chloropus guami) on Guam, and introduced ungulate species on Guam. Data sources included playback call surveys, point count surveys, release events and studbook information, telemetry of radio-marked birds, as well as landcover classes, storm events, and Oceanic Niño Index information to relate environmental factors to ko’ko’ persistence. Major findings were that reaching objectives was constrained by limited data availability and quality. Suggestions for future study include developing detailed protocols for surveys and data collection, standardizing training procedures for observers, improving data organization and archiving, using methods like distance sampling that account for imperfect detection, and collecting additional data on nests and prey resources to understand drivers of ko’ko’ density and survival. While the current data provide a preliminary assessment, improved sampling designs and consistent protocols are needed to fully address objectives related to the recovery of the ko’ko’. The report provides a roadmap for enhancing data collection and analysis to support management decisions and reach conservation translocation goals about this endangered species and related projects.

Guam, Mariana Islands↗

USGS2006

Water levels, rapid vegetational changes, and the endangered Cape Sable seaside-sparrow

The legally endangered Cape Sable seaside-sparrow ( Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis ) is restricted to short-hydroperiod, marl prairies within Florida's Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve. Marl prairies are typified by dense, mixed stands of graminoid species usually below 1 m in height, naturally inundated by freshwater for 3–7 months annually. Water levels affect the birds directly, by flooding their nests, and indirectly by altering the habitat on which they depend. Managed redistribution of water flows flooded nearly half of the sparrow's geographical range during several consecutive breeding seasons starting in 1993. Furthermore, these high water levels rapidly changed plant communities, so jeopardizing the sparrow's survival by reducing the availability of nesting habitat.

Florida↗

USGS2019

Monitoring boreal avian populations: How can we estimate trends and trajectories from noisy data?

Substantial effort has been dedicated to developing reliable monitoring schemes for North American bird populations, but our ability to monitor bird populations in the boreal forest remains limited because of the sparsity of long-term data sets, particularly in northerly regions. Given the importance of the boreal forest for many migratory birds, we set out to (1) summarize the main challenges associated with monitoring avian populations, (2) describe the available statistical tools for population monitoring and their applications, and (3) identify future directions to overcome current challenges in monitoring bird populations in the boreal forest. Defining and delineating populations of interest and identifying the drivers that affect those populations present the greatest current challenges. This is because migratory birds may be affected by many population-limiting processes at different stages of their annual life cycles. These factors are often hierarchically structured and can influence populations at the local, regional, or continental scales. Some of the challenges associated with delineating populations and identifying population drivers can be addressed via the plethora of sampling and analytic methods available to examine population change over time. Choosing the proper analytic methods depends on the goals of the study and the nature of the data such as single or multiple populations, repeated occurrence or count-based surveys, or demographic rates. Recent advances in hierarchical and integrated population models make these analytic approaches some of the most promising avenues for the development of future methods. However, these tools require large data sets, and acquiring sufficient data on bird populations and potential explanatory variables is difficult in the boreal forest. If the current challenges to monitoring birds in the boreal forest are to be overcome, serious effort should be dedicated to integrating existing data and making them accessible. Enhancing survey effort through multispecies surveys will also play an important role. Implementing spatially balanced sampling plans with a rotating panel design could balance the trade-offs between spatial versus temporal replication at an affordable cost. Improving the accessibility of environmental covariates that are spatially and temporally explicit would also enable development of mechanistic population models that improve our understanding of migratory bird population dynamics. Finally, given that long-term monitoring programs can take many decades before delivering reliable population trends and that organizational priorities often change over time, we suggest that collaborative efforts will help ensure the long-term survival of new monitoring programs.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗

USGS2020

Lifetime chronicles of selenium exposure linked to deformities in an imperiled migratory fish

Aquatic ecosystems worldwide face growing threats from elevated levels of contaminants from human activities. Toxic levels of selenium (Se) shown to cause deformities in birds, fish, and mammals can transfer from parents to progeny during embryonic development or accumulate through Se-enriched diets. For migratory species that move across landscapes, tracking exposure to elevated Se is vital to mitigating vulnerabilities. Yet, traditional toxicological investigations resolve only recent Se exposure. Here, we use a novel combination of X-ray fluorescence microscopy and depositional chronology in a biomineral to reveal for the first time provenance, life stage, and duration of toxic Se exposure over the lifetime of an organism. Spinal deformities observed in wild Sacramento Splittail ( Pogonichthys macrolepidotus ), an imperiled migratory minnow, were attributed to elevated Se acquired through maternal transfer and juvenile feeding on contaminated prey. This novel approach paves the way for diagnosing sources, pathways, and potential for a cumulative exposure of Se relevant for conservation.

California↗

USGS2025

The continued decline of the Palila (Loxioides bailleui) on Mauna Kea, Island of Hawaiʻi

Palila ( Loxioides bailleui ) are critically endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers specializing on māmane ( Sophora chrysophylla ) seeds and restricted to Mauna Kea volcano on the Island of Hawaiʻi. Recently, the population was estimated to decline by 89% between 1998 and 2021, despite decades of ungulate removal, fence construction, māmane regeneration, fire suppression, and predator control. To inform managers with the most recent update on the status and trends of the Palila population, we analyzed annual bird survey data collected using point-transect distance sampling since 1998, including new annual survey data from 2022, 2023, and 2024. Prior to analysis, we predicted the population trajectory would change between 2021 and 2024 because of continued management actions promoting habitat recovery. We used distance sampling, log-linear regression, and state-space modeling to produce the new estimates and analyze trends across the time series. The 2022 population estimate was 367 to 742 birds (95% confidence interval; point estimate: 545), the lowest in recorded history. The 2023 and 2024 estimates of 374 to 842 birds (point estimate: 596) and 412 to 970 birds (point estimate: 666) were the second and third lowest in our time series, respectively. Our estimates for years before 2022 show population fluctuations between 4000 to 6800 birds from 1998 to 2005, then a steep decline through 2010. For the next decade, abundance fluctuated around 1000 birds, before declining again in 2021 to less than 700 birds. From 1998 to 2024, the population declined by more than 90%, or 205 birds per year, with 100% statistical support for an overall downward trend, despite significant management efforts and research. The greatest threats facing the Palila, if familiar, are not being eliminated swiftly enough to promote their recovery. The currently small and range-limited population is vulnerable to future climate-related events such as drought and fire. Continued monitoring can help to assess the response of Palila to adaptive management actions and changing environmental conditions.

Hawaii↗

USGS2007

Population-specific demographic estimates provide insights into declines of Lark Buntings ( Calamospiza melanocorys )

Many North American prairie bird populations have recently declined, and the causes of these declines remain largely unknown. To determine whether population limitation occurs during breeding, we evaluated the stability of a population of prairie birds using population-specific values for fecundity and postfledging survival. During 2001-2003, we radiomarked 67 female Lark Buntings ( Calamospiza melanocorys ) to determine annual fecundity and evaluate contributing factors such as nest survival and breeding response (number of breeding attempts and dispersal). Collectively, 67 females built 112 nests (1.67 ± 0.07 nests female −1 season −1 ; range: 1–3); 34 were second nests and 11 were third nests. Daily nest survival estimates were similar for initial and later nests with overall nest survival (DSR 19 ) of 30.7% and 31.7%, respectively. Nest predation was the most common cause of failure (92%). Capture and radiomarking of females did not affect nest survival. Lark Bunting dispersal probabilities increased among females that fledged young from initial nests and females that lost their original nests late in the season. Conservative and liberal estimates of mean annual fecundity were 0.96 ±0.11 and 1.24 ± 0.09 female offspring per female, respectively. Given the fecundity and juvenile-survival estimates for this population, annual adult survival values of 71–77% are necessary to achieve a stable population. Because adult survival of prairie passerines ranges between 55% and 65%, this study area may not be capable of sustaining a stable population in the absence of immigration. We contrast our population assessment with one that assumes indirect values of fecundity and juvenile survival. To elucidate limiting factors, estimation of population-specific demographic parameters is desirable. We present an approach for selecting species and areas for evaluation of population stability.

The Auk↗

USGS2008

Winter survival of Eurasian woodcock Scolopax rusticola in central Italy

The Eurasian woodcock Scolopax rusticola is a popular game bird in much of Europe. However, little is known about its population dynamics. We estimated winter survival of woodcock in a protected area with no hunting in central Italy. We radio-tagged 68 woodcocks with battery-powered radio-transmitters during 2001-2005. Woodcocks were captured in fields at night from November through February and fitted with radios. Birds were classified on capture as juveniles or adults using plumage characteristics. Woodcocks were relocated daily through March of each year or until they died, disappeared from the study area, or until their radio failed. We constructed a set of eight competing models of daily survival for the period 1 December - 28 February. Estimates of survival were obtained using the program SURVIV and Akaike's Information Criteria. The best model suggested daily survival was a constant 0.9985 (95% CI = 0.9972-0.9998), corresponding to a survival rate of 0.88 (SE = 0.05) for the 90-day winter study period. Our estimate of juvenile survival is higher than previously reported, and may reflect the protected status of the study area. Our estimates of winter survival may be helpful in managing harvested woodcock populations as well as in conserving populations in an increasingly urbanised environment. ?? Wildlife Biology (2008).

Wildlife Biology↗

USGS2024

Weather events influence survival and recruitment of Coereba flaveola (Bananaquit) in the Caribbean

The West Indies is considered a biodiversity hotspot and a priority for ecological conservation efforts. Understanding how environmental conditions influence the survival of resident avifauna is an important information need given the predicted increases in drought and the frequency and intensity of severe storms in the region. Throughout much of the Caribbean, Coereba flaveola (Bananaquit) are widespread and abundant, traits that may facilitate understanding their response to environmental changes in the region. We used a 10-yr capture–mark–recapture data set to examine C. flaveola survival, recruitment, population growth, and age structure in the context of monthly and seasonal precipitation and temperatures, drought conditions, and occurrence and intensity of storm events. Our models suggested wing length, occurrence of storms, and drought all influenced survival. Both the incidence of storms and drier-than-average conditions in the preceding wet season (April–June) decreased survival. The sex of bird and net hours influenced capture probability, but weather influences on recruitment were equivocal. During nonstorm years, mean population growth was stable at 1.019 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.962, 1.098) but dropped to 0.843 (95% CI: 0.795, 0.846) in storm years. Increasing frequency of storms, such as back-to-back years, would likely push the growth rate lower. A protracted pattern of increased storm frequency, especially if coupled with a subsequent drought during the wet season, may lead to localized extirpations or strongly reduced populations.

British Virgin Islands, Guana Island↗

USGS2015

Microsatellite variation and rare alleles in a bottlenecked Hawaiian Islands endemic: implications for reintroductions

Conservation of genetic biodiversity in endangered wildlife populations is an important challenge to address since the loss of alleles and genetic drift may influence future adaptability. Reintroduction aims to re-establish species to restored or protected ecosystems; however, moving a subset of individuals may result in loss of gene variants during the management-induced bottleneck (i.e. translocation). The endangered Laysan teal Anas laysanensis was once widespread across the Hawaiian archipelago, but became isolated on Laysan Island (415 ha) from the mid-1800s until 2004 when a translocation to Midway Atoll (596 ha) was undertaken to reduce extinction risks. We compared genetic diversity and quantified variation at microsatellite loci sampled from 230 individuals from the wild populations at Laysan (1999 to 2009) and Midway (2007 to 2010; n = 133 Laysan, n = 96 Midway birds). We identified polymorphic markers by screening nuclear microsatellites (N = 83). Low nuclear variation was detected, consistent with the species’ insular isolation and historical bottleneck. Six of 83 microsatellites were polymorphic. We found limited but similar estimates of allelic richness (2.58 alleles per locus) and heterozygosity within populations. However, 2 rare alleles found in the Laysan source population were not present in Midway’s reintroduced population, and a unique allele was discovered in an individual on Midway. Differentiation between island populations was low ( F ST = 0.6%), but statistically significant. Our results indicate that genetic drift had little effect on offspring generations 3 to 6 yr post-release and demonstrate the utility of using known founder events to help quantify genetic capture during translocations and to inform management decisions.

Endangered Species Research↗

USGS2019

Residency, recruitment, and stopover duration of hatch-year Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) during the pre-migratory staging period

Avian migratory stopover and staging sites represent important energetic bottlenecks and may influence population dynamics as much as breeding or wintering periods. Roseate terns ( Sterna dougallii ) are an ideal species to examine staging demography because >70% of the entire endangered northwest Atlantic population stages at accessible locations around Cape Cod, MA before southward migration. We quantified hatch-year tern weekly residency, weekly recruitment rate into the staging population, and derived weekly staging population growth rate during two post-breeding, pre-migratory staging seasons (2014 and 2015) at Cape Cod National Seashore. We also estimated hatch-year tern staging duration at Cape Cod staging grounds. Tern residency probability at Cape Cod National Seashore during 2014 and 2015 was nearly 1 during the first weeks of the season and decreased steadily over the last four weeks to ~0.5 in the final week of the study. Recruitment rates into the staging population, representing the weekly per capita increase in hatch-year terns during the staging season, indicated that most terns arrived on the staging grounds during the first weeks of the staging season (16 July–19 August). We also identified differences in staging duration between birds from the two breeding regions. Hatch-year terns from the southernmost region spent less time staging at Cape Cod National Seashore than their northern counterparts in both 2014 and 2015. These differences may indicate alternative staging strategies for individuals originating in different regions and possibly reveal differences in conditions between these areas; for example, in the availability of ephemeral prey fish.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2022

Estimating allowable take for an increasing bald eagle population in the United States

Effectively managing take of wildlife resulting from human activities poses a major challenge for applied conservation. Demographic data essential to decisions regarding take are often expensive to collect and are either not available or based on limited studies for many species. Therefore, modeling approaches that efficiently integrate available information are important to improving the scientific basis for sustainable take thresholds. We used the prescribed take level (PTL) framework to estimate allowable take for bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) in the conterminous United States. We developed an integrated population model (IPM) that incorporates multiple sources of information and then use the model output as the scientific basis for components of the PTL framework. Our IPM is structured to identify key parameters needed for the PTL and to quantify uncertainties in those parameters at the scale at which the United States Fish and Wildlife Service manages take. Our IPM indicated that mean survival of birds >1 year old was high and precise (0.91, 95% CI = 0.90–0.92), whereas mean survival of first-year eagles was lower and more variable (0.69, 95% CI = 0.62–0.78). We assumed that density dependence influenced recruitment by affecting the probability of breeding, which was highly imprecise and estimated to have declined from approximately 0.988 (95% CI = 0.985–0.993) to 0.66 (95% CI = 0.34–0.99) between 1994 and 2018. We sampled values from the posterior distributions of the IPM for use in the PTL and estimated that allowable take (e.g., permitted take for energy development, incidental collisions with human made structures, or removal of nests for development) ranged from approximately 12,000 to 20,000 individual eagles depending on risk tolerance and form of density dependence at the scale of the conterminous United States excluding the Southwest. Model-based thresholds for allowable take can be inaccurate if the assumptions of the underlying framework are not met, if the influence of permitted take is under-estimated, or if undetected population declines occur from other sources. Continued monitoring and use of the IPM and PTL frameworks to identify key uncertainties in bald eagle population dynamics and management of allowable take can mitigate this potential bias, especially where improved information could reduce the risk of permitting non-sustainable take.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2003

Estimation of change in populations and communities from monitoring survey data

Monitoring surveys provide fundamental information for use in environmental decision making by permitting assessment of both current population (or community) status and change in status, by providing a historical context of the present status, and by documenting response to ongoing management. Conservation of species and communities has historically been based upon monitoring information, and prioritization of species and habitats for conservation action often requires reliable, quantitative results. Although many monitoring programs exist for populations, species, and communities, as well as for biotic and abiotic features of the environment, estimation of population and community change from surveys can sometimes be controversial, and demands on monitoring information have increased greatly in recent years. Information is often required at multiple spatial scales for use in geographic information systems, and information needs exist for description of regional patterns of change in populations, communities, and ecosystems. Often, attempts are made to meet these needs using information collected for other purposes or at inappropriate geographic scales, leading to information that is difficult to analyze and interpret. In this chapter, we address some of the constraints and issues associated with estimating change in wildlife species and species groups from monitoring surveys, and use bird surveys as our primary examples.

Book chapter↗

USGS1974

Population ecology of the mallard: II. Breeding habitat conditions, size of the breeding populations, and production indices

This report, the second in a series on a comprehensive analysis of mallard population data, provides information on mallard breeding habitat, the size and distribution of breeding populations, and indices to production. The information in this report is primarily the result of large-scale aerial surveys conducted during May and July, 1955-73. The history of the conflict in resource utilization between agriculturalists and wildlife conservation interests in the primary waterfowl breeding grounds is reviewed. The numbers of ponds present during the breeding season and the midsummer period and the effects of precipitation and temperature on the number of ponds present are analyzed in detail. No significant cycles in precipitation were detected and it appears that precipitation is primarily influenced by substantial seasonal and random components. Annual estimates (1955-73) of the number of mallards in surveyed and unsurveyed breeding areas provided estimates of the size and geographic distribution of breeding mallards in North America. The estimated size of the mallard breeding population in North America has ranged from a high of 14.4 million in 1958 to a low of 7.1 million in 1965. Generally, the mallard breeding population began to decline after the 1958 peak until 1962, and remained below 10 million birds until 1970. The decline and subsequent low level of the mallard population between 1959 and 1969 .generally coincided with a period of poor habitat conditions on the major breeding grounds. The density of mallards was highest in the Prairie-Parkland Area with an average of nearly 19.2 birds per square mile. The proportion of the continental mallard breeding population in the Prairie-Parkland Area ranged from 30% in 1962 to a high of 600/0 in 1956. The geographic distribution of breeding mallards throughout North America was significantly related to the number of May ponds in the Prairie-Parkland Area . Estimates of midsummer habitat conditions and indices to production from the July Production Survey were studied in detail. Several indices relating to production showed marked declines from west to east in the Prairie-Parkland Area , these are: (1) density of breeding mallards (per square mile and per May pond), (2) brood density (per square mile and per July pond), (3) average brood size (all species combined), and (4) brood survival from class II to class III. An index to late nesting and renesting efforts was highest during years when midsummer water conditions were good. Production rates of many ducks breeding in North America appear to be regulated by both density-dependent and density-independent factors. Spacing of birds in the Prairie-Parkland Area appeared to be a key factor in the density-dependent regulation of the population. The spacing mechanism, in conjunction with habitat conditions, influenced some birds to overfly the primary breeding grounds into less favorable habitats to the north and northwest where the production rate may be suppressed. The production rate of waterfowl in the Prairie Parkland Area seems to be independent of density (after emigration has taken place) because the production index appears to be a linear function of the number of breeding birds in the area. Similarly, the production rate of waterfowl in northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba appeared to be independent of density. Production indices in these northern areas appear to be a linear function of the size of the breeding population. Thus, the density and distribution of breeding ducks is probably regulated through a spacing mechanism that is at least partially dependent on measurable environmental factors. The result is a density-dependent process operating to ultimately effect the production and production rate of breeding ducks on a continent-wide basis. Continental production, and therefore the size of the fall population, is probably partially regulated by the number of birds that are distributed north and northwest into environments less favorable for successful reproduction. Thus, spacing of the birds in the Prairie-Parkland Area and the movement of a fraction of the birds out of the prime breeding areas may be key factors in the density-dependent regulation of the total mallard population.

Resource Publication↗