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At least 1,207 records · Page 67Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Forest structure affects trophic linkages: How silvicultural disturbance impacts bats and their insect prey

Vertebrate insectivores such as bats are a pervasive top-down force on prey populations in forest ecosystems. Conservation focusing on forest-dwelling bats requires understanding of community-level interactions between these predators and their insect prey. Our study assessed bat activity and insect occurrence (abundance and diversity) across a gradient of forest disturbance and structure (silvicultural treatments) in the Central Appalachian region of North America. We conducted acoustic surveys of bat echolocation concurrent with insect surveys using blacklight and malaise traps over 2 years. Predator activity, prey occurrence and prey biomass varied seasonally and across the region. The number of bat echolocation pulses was positively related with forest disturbance, whereas prey demonstrated varied trends. Lepidopteran abundance was negatively related with disturbance, while dipteran abundance and diversity was positively related with disturbance. Coleoptera were unaffected. Neither bat nor insect response variables differed between plot interiors and edges. Correlations between bat activity and vegetative structure reflected differences in foraging behavior among ensembles. Activity of myotine bats was correlated with variables describing sub-canopy vegetation, whereas activity of lasiurine bats was more closely correlated with canopy-level vegetation. Lepidopteran abundance was correlated with variables describing canopy and sub-canopy vegetation, whereas coleopteran and dipteran occurrence were more closely correlated with canopy-level vegetative structure. Our study demonstrates regional variation in bat activity and prey occurrence across a forested disturbance gradient. Land management and conservation efforts should consider the importance of vegetation structure and plant species richness to sustain forest-dwelling bats and their insect prey.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2012

Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2014

Tree growth and recruitment in a leveed floodplain forest in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley, USA

Flooding is a defining disturbance in floodplain forests affecting seed germination, seedling establishment, and tree growth. Globally, flood control, including artificial levees, dams, and channelization has altered flood regimes in floodplains. However, a paucity of data are available in regards to the long-term effects of levees on stand establishment and tree growth in floodplain forests. In this study, we used dendrochronological techniques to reconstruct tree recruitment and tree growth over a 90-year period at three stands within a ring levee in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (MAV) and to evaluate whether recruitment patterns and tree growth changed following levee construction. We hypothesized that: (1) sugarberry is increasing in dominance and overcup oak ( Quercus lyrata ) is becoming less dominant since the levee, and that changes in hydrology are playing a greater role than canopy disturbance in these changes in species dominance; and (2) that overcup oak growth has declined following construction of the levee and cessation of overbank flooding whereas that of sugarberry has increased. Recruitment patterns shifted from flood-tolerant overcup oak to flood-intolerant sugarberry ( Celtis laevigata ) after levee construction. None of the 122 sugarberry trees cored in this study established prior to the levee, but it was the most common species established after the levee. The mechanisms behind the compositional change are unknown, however, the cosmopolitan distribution of overcup oak during the pre-levee period and sugarberry during the post-levee period, the lack of sugarberry establishment in the pre-levee period, and the confinement of overcup oak regeneration to the lowest areas in each stand after harvest in the post-levee period indicate that species-specific responses to flooding and light availability are forcing recruitment patterns. Overcup oak growth was also affected by levee construction, but in contrast to our hypothesis, growth actually increased for several decades before declining during a drought in the late 1990s. We interpret this result as removal of flood stress following levee construction. This finding emphasizes the fact that flooding can be stressful to trees regardless of their flood tolerance and that growth in floodplain trees can be sustained provided adequate soil moisture is present, regardless of the source of soil moisture. However, future research efforts should focus on the long-term effect of hydrologic modification on stand development and on how hydrologic modifications, such as elimination of surface flooding and groundwater declines, affect the vulnerability of floodplain forests to drought.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2020

Long term persistence of aspen in snowdrift-dependent ecosystems

Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) forests throughout the western United States have experienced significant mortality in recent decades, much of which has been influenced by climate variability, especially drought. In the western portion of its range, where most precipitation arrives during winter as snowfall and summers are dry, snowdrifts that persist into the growing season provide soil moisture recharge that sustain many aspen groves that are important locations of biodiversity within the landscape. There is growing concern that reduced snowpack due to climate change may reduce the long-term persistence and productivity of aspen communities in these regions. In this study, we evaluated the potential for climate change and drought to reduce or eliminate isolated aspen communities in southwestern Idaho. We used a landscape simulation model integrated with inputs from an empirically derived biogeochemical model of growth, and a species distribution model of regeneration to forecast how changes in climate, declining snowpack, and competition with a conifer species is likely to affect aspen occupancy over the next 85-years. We found that simulated reductions in snowpack depth (and associated increases in climatic water deficit) caused a reduction in aspen persistence; aspen occupancy was reduced under all high emissions climate scenarios. Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) occupancy also declined under all future climates. Aspen regeneration declined over the course of all simulations, with an ensemble ratio of mortality/establishment increasing over the course of both low and high emissions climate scenarios. Climate-induced mortality of aspen clones increased in frequency under all climate scenarios and, under the most severe emissions scenarios, contributed to a substantial decline of aspen cover. Our research suggests that snowbanks will be an important determinant of long-term persistence of aspen under changing climate in the region.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2022

Mechanisms of forest resilience

Ecosystems are dynamic systems with complex responses to environmental variation. In response to pervasive stressors of changing climate and disturbance regimes, many ecosystems are realigning rapidly across spatial scales, in many cases moving outside of their observed historical range of variation into alternative ecological states. In some cases, these new states are transitory and represent successional stages that may ultimately revert to the pre-disturbance condition; in other cases, alternative states are persistent and potentially self-reinforcing, especially under conditions of altered climate, disturbance regimes, and influences of non-native species. These reorganized states may appear novel, but reorganization is a characteristic ecosystem response to environmental variation that has been expressed and documented throughout the paleoecological record. Resilience, the ability of an ecosystem to recover or adapt following disturbance, is an emergent property that results from the expression of multiple mechanisms operating across levels of organism, population, and community. We outline a unifying framework of ecological resilience based on ecological mechanisms that lead to outcomes of persistence, recovery, and reorganization. Persistence is the ability of individuals to tolerate exposure to environmental stress, disturbance, or competitive interactions. As a direct expression of life history evolution and adaptation to environmental variation and stress, persistence is manifested most directly in survivorship and continued growth and reproduction of established individuals. When persistence has been overcome (e.g., following mortality from stress, disturbance, or both), populations must recover by reproduction. Recovery requires the establishment of new individuals from seed or other propagules following dispersal from the parent plant. When recovery fails to re-establish the pre-disturbance community, the ecosystem will assemble into a new state. Reorganization occurs along a gradient of magnitude, from changes in the relative dominance of species present in a community, to individual species replacements within an essentially intact community, to complete species turnover and shift to dominance by plants of different functional types, e.g. transition from forest to shrub or grass dominance. When this latter outcome is persistent and involves reinforcing mechanisms, the resulting state represents a vegetation type conversion (VTC), which in this framework represents an end member of reorganization processes. We explore reorganization in greater detail as this phase is increasingly observed but the least understood of the resilience responses. This resilience framework provides a direct and actionable basis for ecosystem management in a rapidly changing world, by targeting specific components of ecological response and managing for sustainable change.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2022

Level and pattern of overstory retention shape the abundance and long-term dynamics of natural and created snags

Standing dead trees, or snags, serve myriad functions in natural forests, but are often scarce in forests managed for timber production. Variable retention (VR), the retention of live and dead trees through harvest, has been adopted globally as a less intensive form of regeneration harvest. In this study, we explore how two key elements of VR systems — level (amount) and spatial pattern of live-tree retention — affect the carryover and post-harvest dynamics of natural and artificially created snags. We present nearly two decades of data from the DEMO Study, a regional-scale experiment in VR harvests of Douglas-fir-dominated forests in the Pacific Northwest. Snag losses to harvest were greater at 15 than at 40% retention (67 vs. 47% declines in density) and greater in dispersed than in aggregated treatments (64 vs. 50% declines). Densities of hard and tall (≥5 m) snags were particularly sensitive to low-level dispersed retention, declining by 76 and 81%, respectively. Despite these losses, post-harvest densities correlated with pre-harvest densities for most snag size and decay classes. In contrast to initial harvest effects, snag densities changed minimally over the post-harvest period (years 1 to 18 or 19), with low rates of recruitment offsetting low rates of loss. Post-harvest survival of snags was greater at 15 than at 40% retention (79 vs. 69%), as were rates of decay (68 vs. 52% of hard snags transitioned to soft). However, pattern had no effect on either process. Snag recruitment did not vary with retention level or pattern at the scale of the 13-ha harvest unit, but was several-fold greater in the 1-ha aggregates (14.3–27.8 snags ha −1 ) than in the corresponding dispersed treatments (4.2–5.3 snags ha −1 ). Snag size (diameter) distributions showed greater change in dispersed than in aggregated treatments, reflecting greater loss of smaller snags and recruitment biased toward larger snags. Created snags showed uniformly high survival (97%), irrespective of treatment, but rates of decay were greater at lower retention. If a goal of VR is to sustain snag abundance and diversity through harvest, emphasis should be placed on minimizing initial losses, either by reducing the intensity of felling in areas of dispersed retention or locating forest aggregates in areas of greater initial snag density, diversity, or incipient decay.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2023

Widespread regeneration failure in ponderosa pine forests of the southwestern United States

As climate changes in coming decades, ponderosa pine forest persistence may be increasingly dictated by their regeneration. Sustained regeneration failure has been predicted for forests of the southwestern US (SWUS) even in absence of stand-replacing wildfire, but regeneration in undisturbed and lightly disturbed forests has been studied infrequently and at a limited number of locations. We characterized 77 ponderosa pine sites in 7 SWUS locations, documented regeneration occurring over the past ∼ "> ∼ 20 years, and utilized gridded meteorological estimates and water balance modeling to determine the climate and environmental conditions associated with regeneration failure (R0). Of these sites, 29 % "> % were R0, illuminating that regeneration failure in these forests is widespread. R0 sites were distinguished by high above- and belowground heat loading, loss of cool-season climate, and high soil moisture variation. Explanatory variables had high accuracy in identifying R0 sites, and illustrate the climate-driven pathway by which regeneration failure has occurred in the SWUS. Regeneration failure has high potential to increase in a warmer, more hydrologically variable climate, and expand regionally from lower to higher latitudes. Yet, we also found that human management interventions were associated with environmental conditions that avoided regeneration failure. To counteract regeneration-associated forest declines, interventions will need to influence climate-driven environmental change by adjusting forest characteristics at local scales. Regeneration failures are a major threat to ponderosa pine forest persistence, and they have potential to intensify and expand in a changing climate.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico↗
USGS2024

Trees have similar growth responses to first-entry fires and reburns following long-term fire exclusion

Managing fire ignitions for resource benefit decreases fuel loads and reduces the risk of high-severity fire in fire-suppressed dry conifer forests. However, the reintroduction of low-severity wildfire can injure trees, which may decrease their growth after fire. Post-fire growth responses could change from first-entry fires to reburns, as first-entry fires reduce fuel loads and the vulnerability among trees to fire effects, which may result in trees sustaining less damage during reburns. To determine whether trees had growth responses that varied from first-entry fires to reburns, we cored 87 ponderosa pine trees in the Gila Wilderness, New Mexico, USA that experienced 3–5 fires between 1950 and 2012 following long-term fire-exclusion and 67 unburned control trees from the Gila and Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests. We assessed tree growth response to fire by comparing tree-ring growth among burned and unburned trees from two years before to two years after fires. We compared growth between burned and unburned trees using a bootstrapping procedure to calculate annual median tree-ring width index values with 95 % confidence intervals. We compared post-fire growth after first-entry fires and reburns following long-term fire-exclusion. Burned trees had similar growth responses following first-entry fires and reburns, with lower growth during the fire year through two years post-fire compared to unburned controls. Burned tree growth returned to expected rates following these immediate post-fire growth reductions. Interestingly, trees had lower growth during the year before and the year of reburns compared to the first-entry fire, reflecting greater aridity before reburns. Greater aridity may have contributed to larger-than-expected growth reductions following reburns, which could explain similar growth responses to first-entry fires and reburns. Our results indicate that trees had consistent short-term growth responses to low-severity fires following long-term fire-exclusion. As trees retained vigor after multiple fires, managing fires for resource benefit is an effective approach to reduce the likelihood of high-severity fire without long-term negative effects on tree growth.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2025

Shifts in suitability of pinyon-juniper communities: A climate adaptation framework for range-wide management of arid woodland resources

Pinyon-juniper (PJ) woodlands are a diverse ecosystem type providing a wealth of ecosystem services across western North America. Managing PJ woodlands in the 21st century entails balancing multiple conservation objectives, and resource managers and policy-makers working to sustain PJ woodlands need spatially explicit information about current PJ woodland conditions and how they may be impacted in coming decades in the context of wildfire risk and changing climate. Here, we address knowledge gaps and provide information that improves the long-term value of conservation and restoration actions in PJ woodlands. To this end, we merged projections of future environmental suitability for nine PJ species with wildfire risk and locations of mature and old-growth (MOG) woodlands to assess spatial variation in PJ woodlands with differing threats and management opportunities. We identified potential climate refugia with enduring high community suitability and low burn probability (3 % of study area ) that may persist with relatively little management. We found promising locations of PJ-MOG forest type with high future suitability (12 % of areas) that could be prioritized for fire risk reduction to maintain high-value woodlands. Despite a 38 % mean community suitability decline under future climate conditions, some locations (7 % of areas) may act as climate refugia where future climate conditions can support current PJ woodland composition and structure. We conclude by demonstrating how this information can be integrated into a conceptual framework to help prioritize conservation and climate adaptation in PJ woodlands.

western North America↗
USGS2008

Evidence for crustal degassing of CF4 and SF6 in Mojave Desert groundwaters

Dissolved tetrafluoromethane (CF4) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) concentrations were measured in groundwater samples from the Eastern Morongo Basin (EMB) and Mojave River Basin (MRB) located in the southern Mojave Desert, California. Both CF4 and SF6 are supersaturated with respect to equilibrium with the preindustrial atmosphere at the recharge temperatures and elevations of the Mojave Desert. These observations provide the first in situ evidence for a flux of CF4 from the lithosphere. A gradual basin-wide enhancement in dissolved CF4 and SF6 concentrations with groundwater age is consistent with release of these gases during weathering of the surrounding granitic alluvium. Dissolved CF4 and SF6 concentrations in these groundwaters also contain a deeper crustal component associated with a lithospheric flux entering the EMB and MRB through the underlying basement. The crustal flux of CF4, but not of SF6, is enhanced in the vicinity of local active fault systems due to release of crustal fluids during episodic fracture events driven by local tectonic activity. When fluxes of CF4 and SF6 into Mojave Desert groundwaters are extrapolated to the global scale they are consistent, within large uncertainties, with the fluxes required to sustain the preindustrial atmospheric abundances of CF4 and SF6. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗
USGS2009

Chemical weathering of a marine terrace chronosequence, Santa Cruz, California. Part II: Solute profiles, gradients and the comparisons of contemporary and long-term weathering rates

The spatial and temporal changes in hydrology and pore water elemental and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions are used to determine contemporary weathering rates in a 65- to 226-kyr-old soil chronosequence formed from granitic sediments deposited on marine terraces along coastal California. Soil moisture, tension and saturation exhibit large seasonal variations in shallow soils in response to a Mediterranean climate. These climate effects are dampened in underlying argillic horizons that progressively developed in older soils, and reached steady-state conditions in unsaturated horizons extending to depths in excess of 15 m. Hydraulic fluxes (q h ), based on Cl mass balances, vary from 0.06 to 0.22 m yr -1 , resulting in fluid residence times in the terraces of 10-24 yrs. As expected for a coastal environment, the order of cation abundances in soil pore waters is comparable to sea water, i.e., Na > Mg > Ca > K > Sr, while the anion sequence Cl > NO 3 > HCO 3 > SO 4 reflects modifying effects of nutrient cycling in the grassland vegetation. Net Cl-corrected solute Na, K and Si increase with depth, denoting inputs from feldspar weathering. Solute 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios exhibit progressive mixing of sea water-dominated precipitation with inputs from less radiogenic plagioclase. While net Sr and Ca concentrations are anomalously high in shallow soils due to biological cycling, they decline with depth to low and/or negative net concentrations. Ca/Mg, Sr/Mg and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr solute and exchange ratios are similar in all the terraces, denoting active exchange equilibration with selectivities close to unity for both detrital smectite and secondary kaolinite. Large differences in the magnitudes of the pore waters and exchange reservoirs result in short-term buffering of the solute Ca, Sr, and Mg. Such buffering over geologic time scales can not be sustained due to declining inputs from residual plagioclase and smectite, implying periodic resetting of the exchange reservoir such as by past vegetational changes and/or climate. Pore waters approach thermodynamic saturation with respect to albite at depth in the younger terraces, indicating that weathering rates ultimately become transport-limited and dependent on hydrologic flux. Contemporary rates R solute are estimated from linear Na and Si pore weathering gradients b solute such that R solute = frac(q h , b solute ?? S v ) where S v is the volumetric surface area and ?? is the stoichiometric coefficient. Plagioclase weathering rates (0.38-2.8 ?? 10 -15 mol m -2 s -1 ) are comparable to those based on 87 Sr/ 86 Sr mass balances and solid-state Na and Ca gradients using analogous gradient approximations. In addition, contemporary solute gradients, under transport-limited conditions, approximate long-term solid-state gradients when normalized against the mass of protolith plagioclase and its corresponding aqueous solubility. The multi-faceted weathering analysis presented in this paper is perhaps the most comprehensive yet applied to a single field study. Within uncertainties of the methods used, present day weathering rates, based on solute characterizations, are comparable to average long-term past rates as evidenced by soil profiles.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗
USGS2013

Aeolian controls of soil geochemistry and weathering fluxes in high-elevation ecosystems of the Rocky Mountains, Colorado

When dust inputs are large or have persisted for long periods of time, the signature of dust additions are often apparent in soils. The of dust will be greatest where the geochemical composition of dust is distinct from local sources of soil parent material. In this study the influence of dust accretion on soil geochemistry is quantified for two different soils from the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado, USA. At both study sites, dust is enriched in several trace elements relative to local rock, especially Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn. Mass-balance calculations that do not explicitly account for dust inputs indicate the accumulation of some elements in soil beyond what can be explained by weathering of local rock. Most observed elemental enrichments are explained by accounting for the long-term accretion of dust, based on modern isotopic and geochemical estimates. One notable exception is Pb, which based on mass-balance calculations and isotopic measurements may have an additional source at one of the study sites. These results suggest that dust is a major factor influencing the development of soil in these settings and is also an important control of soil weathering fluxes. After accounting for dust inputs in mass-balance calculations, Si weathering fluxes from San Juan Mountain soils are within the range observed for other temperate systems. Comparing dust inputs with mass-balanced based flux estimates suggests dust could account for as much as 50–80% of total long-term chemical weathering fluxes. These results support the notion that dust inputs may sustain chemical weathering fluxes even in relatively young continental settings. Given the widespread input of far-traveled dust, the weathering of dust is likely and important and underappreciated aspect of the global weathering engine.

Colorado↗
USGS2021

A reactive transport approach to modeling cave seepage water chemistry I: Carbon isotope transformations

The majority of Critical Zone research has emphasized silicate lithologies, which are typified by relatively slow rates of reactivity and incongruent weathering. However, the relatively simpler weathering of carbonate-dominated lithology can result in secondary mineral deposits, such as speleothems, which provide a long-term archive for Critical Zone processes. In particular, carbon isotopic variability in speleothems has the potential to provide records of changes in vegetation, soil respiration, carbon stabilization in deep soils, and/or chemical weathering in the host rock. Despite this opportunity to reconstruct many Critical Zone processes, multiple influences can also make interpretion of these speleothem carbon isotope records challenging. The integration of observational data and simulations specific to karst systems offers an interpretive framework for these unique time-averaged records accumulated through the evolution of carbonate landscapes. Here, we present a forward and process-based reactive transport simulation based on a multi-year monitoring study of Blue Spring Cave in central Tennessee, USA. The simulations describe the fluid-driven weathering of limestone including explicit tracking of dissolved calcium, stable carbon, and radiocarbon isotope ratios based on reaction rates calibrated through laboratory batch reaction data. We find that calcium concentrations and radiocarbon isotope ratios are strongly influenced by the combination of fluid flow rate and soil CO 2 content, and require rapid gas phase communication between the overlying soil boundary condition and interior karst to sustain both elevated limestone weathering rates and relatively modern radiocarbon signatures. Stable carbon isotopes are largely dictated by temperature-dependent equilibrium fractionation among contemporaneous species. These simulations are extended to a wide range of parameter space to demonstrate the environmental factors that these isotope proxies record.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗
USGS2026

Organic and isotopic indicators for sorting of sedimentary organic matter along a marginal submarine canyon

Submarine canyons are incised features of many continental margins that can have significant influence on the hydrodynamic distribution of sediments and organic matter eroded and deposited from the continents. Baltimore Canyon, on the mid-Atlantic margin of the United States, contains a complex set of sedimentary processes that simultaneously create unique benthic habitats and control the deposition of organic matter. Along the canyon axis, loci of net erosion, net deposition, and intense winnowing each host diverse faunal assemblages and varying mixtures of sedimentary organic matter derived both from production in the overlying water column and from mobilized sediments. Bioavailable components of this deposited organic matter sustain benthic communities, while recalcitrant components can contribute to long-term carbon burial in the deep sea. However, commonly employed bulk geochemical analyses provide little information about the relative bioavailability or depositional history of sedimentary organic matter. Here we employ a range of organic and isotopic analyses to explore in more detail how canyon-specific sediment dynamics determine the sorting of organic matter from shelf to open ocean. In combination with bulk geochemical characteristics, we subjected surface sediments from water depths of ∼200–1200 m in Baltimore Canyon to a sequential extraction procedure, isolating nonpolar and polar lipid classes, an acid-soluble fraction, and an acid-insoluble fraction. Each class was analyzed for carbon and nitrogen quantities and stable isotope ratios, and radiocarbon content where possible, along with compound-specific carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis of individual amino acids in the acid-hydrolysed fraction. We find different organic matter sources and depositional history recorded in the properties of younger, bioavailable organic matter components (polar lipids, amino acids) in comparison to the older, more recalcitrant components (nonpolar lipids, acid-insoluble fraction). These differences in source and bioavailability of organic matter vary along the canyon, correlating with grain size and erosion/deposition dynamics, and may help shape the benthic faunal assemblages. Additionally, our results suggest that determining the relative concentrations of acid-soluble and acid-insoluble organic matter may provide an easily accessible method to improve our understanding of the nutritional quality of sediments for benthic fauna than more commonly used bulk carbon or nitrogen concentrations.

Delaware, New Jersey↗
USGS2020

An assessment of the representation of ecosystems in global protected areas using new maps of World Climate Regions and World Ecosystems

Representation of ecosystems in protected area networks and conservation strategies is a core principle of global conservation priority setting approaches and a commitment in Aichi Target 11 of the Convention on Biological Diversity. The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) explicitly call for the conservation of terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems. Accurate ecosystem distribution maps are required to assess representation of ecosystems in protected areas, but standardized, high spatial resolution, and globally comprehensive ecosystem maps have heretofore been lacking. While macroscale global ecoregions maps have been used in global conservation priority setting exercises, they do not identify distinct localized ecosystems at the occurrence (patch) level, and instead describe large ecologically meaningful areas within which additional conservation planning and management are necessary. We describe a new set of maps of globally consistent climate regions and ecosystems at a much finer spatial resolution (250 m) than existing ecological regionalizations. We then describe a global gap analysis of the representation of these ecosystems in protected areas. The new map of terrestrial World Ecosystems was derived from the objective development and integration of 1) global temperature domains, 2) global moisture domains, 3) global landforms, and 4) 2015 global vegetation and land use. These new terrestrial World Ecosystems do not include either freshwater or marine ecosystems, but analog products for the freshwater and marine domains are in development. A total of 431 World Ecosystems were identified, and of these a total of 278 units were natural or semi-natural vegetation/environment combinations, including different kinds of forestlands, shrublands, grasslands, bare areas, and ice/snow regions. The remaining classes were different kinds of croplands and settlements. Of the 278 natural and semi-natural classes, 9 were not represented in global protected areas with a strict biodiversity conservation management objective (IUCN management categories I-IV), and an additional 206 were less than 8.5% protected (half way to the 17% Aichi Target 11 goal). Forty four classes were between 8.5% and 17% protected (more than half way towards the Aichi 17% target), and only 19 classes exceeded the 17% Aichi target. However, when all protected areas (IUCN management categories I-VI plus protected areas with no IUCN designation) were included in a separate global gap analysis, representation of ecosystems increases substantially, with a third of the ecosystems exceeding the 17% Aichi target, and another third between 8.5% and 17%. The overall protection (representation) of global ecosystems in protected areas is considerably less when assessed using only strictly conserved protected areas, and more if all protected areas are included in the analysis. Protected area effectiveness should be included in further evaluations of global ecosystem protection. The ecosystems with the highest representation in protected areas were often bare or sparsely vegetated and found in inhospitable environments (e.g. cold mountains, deserts), and the eight most protected ecosystems were all snow and ice ecosystems. In addition to the global gap analysis of World Ecosystems in protected areas, we report on the representation results for the ecosystems in each biogeographic realm (Neotropical, Nearctic, Afrotropical, Palearctic, Indomalayan, Australasian, and Oceania).

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2021

Linking demographic rates to local environmental conditions: Empirical data to support climate adaptation strategies for Eleutherodactylus frogs

Conducting managed species translocations and establishing climate change refugia are adaptation strategies to cope with projected consequences of global warming, but successful implementation requires on-the-ground validation of demographic responses to transient climate conditions. Here we estimated the effect of nine abiotic and biotic factors on local occupancy and an index of abundance (few or chorus) for four amphibian species ( Eleutherodactylus wightmanae , E. brittoni , E. antillensis, and E. coqui ) in Puerto Rico, USA. We also assessed how the same factors influenced reproductive activity of E. coqui and how species responded to hurricane María (20 September 2017). As predicted, occupancy and abundance of E. wightmanae , E. brittoni and E. coqui were positively and strongly influenced by abiotic covariates (e.g., relative humidity) that characterize high elevation, mesic habitats. E. antillensis exhibited the opposite pattern, with highest probabilities (≥0.6) recorded at ≤300 m and with average relative humidity<75%. Biotic covariates (e.g., canopy cover) had a weak influence on both parameters, regardless of species. High probabilities (≥0.9) of detecting an E. coqui chorus and active nests occurred at sites experiencing average relative humidity of>80% and temperature of ≤26 °C. Moderate to high probabilities of detecting a chorus (0.4–0.7) were recorded at sites with average temperatures>26 °C, but no reproductive activity was detected, implying that monitoring abundance alone could misrepresent the capacity of a local population to sustain itself. The possibility underscores the importance of understanding the interplay between local demographic and environmental parameters in the advent of global warming to help guide monitoring and management decisions, especially for high elevation specialists. Hurricanes can inflict marked reductions in population numbers, but impacts vary by location and species. We found that the abundance (chorus) of E. antillensis and E. brittoni increased after the hurricane, but the abundance of the other two species did not differ between years. Lack of impacts was probably mediated by low structural damage to forest tracts (e.g., 9% canopy loss). Our findings help assess habitat suitability in terms of parameters that foster local population growth, which provides a basis for testing spatio-temporal predictions about demographic rates in potential climate refugia and for designing criteria to help guide managed translocations.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2024

Potential 2050 distributions of World Terrestrial Ecosystems from projections of changes in World Climate Regions and Global Land Cover

The urgency to address ecosystem loss is paramount, as both land use change and climate change will continue to rapidly alter and degrade natural ecosystems and reduce the many services they provide. To support conservation actions that mitigate impacts from these dual threats, we have developed potential World Terrestrial Ecosystem (WTE) distributions for 2050 following IPCC best practice guidelines. This projection of ecosystem distributions builds on the previously released 2015 WTEs, a snapshot of the distribution and conservation status of 431 terrestrial ecosystem types defined as distinct combinations of 18 global climate regions, 4 global landform classes, and 8 global vegetation/land cover classes. Extending that work herein, we modeled the potential 2050 WTE distributions based on projections of five CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs) and one global land cover change model, determined for three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The climate region modeling included projections for 2050 for both mean annual temperature and mean annual aridity. Model agreement for changes to WTEs was generally high, particularly for temperature projections. Widespread changes in ecosystem classes due to shifts in climate settings and/or land cover between 2015 and 2050 were projected, with both the magnitude and specific geography of projected change largely governed by the SSP scenario. For the three SSP scenarios (sustainable development, regional rivalry, and fossil-fueled development), geographic changes in climate setting (temperature, aridity, or both) and/or changes in vegetation/land cover are projected for 29 %, 36 %, and 39 % of Earth’s terrestrial surface, respectively. These changes occur in areas where 31 %, 36 %, and 41 % of the global population lives. Projected changes in ecosystem distributions related to temperature change are approximately an order of magnitude greater than for aridity change. By offering insight into potential ecosystem changes, this new resource is intended to facilitate conservation planning and priority setting aimed at improved conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2026

Leopard occupancy and habitat use in the multi-use Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape, Nepal

We estimated leopard ( Panthera pardus fusca ) occupancy in a multi-use region within Nepal’s Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape to evaluate leopard habitat use and inform conservation planning in areas where most of the species’ habitat occurs outside protected areas. In 2021, sign surveys were conducted along 1277 km of transects distributed among 145 grid cells of 7×7 km within a 7105 km² study area, where 226 leopard signs (pugmarks and scats) were documented. We used an occupancy modeling framework to evaluate the influence of environmental and anthropogenic factors on leopard habitat use. We found that leopard occupancy (ψ = 0.73 ± 0.17 CI) was strongly and positively associated with areas used by wild prey such as red muntjac ( Muntiacus muntjak ), rhesus macaques ( Macaca mulatta ), chital ( Axis axis ), and wild boars ( Sus scrofa ). Our results provide evidence that large carnivores like leopards can persist in human-dominated landscapes when native prey remains abundant, underscoring the need for community-based conservation that sustains both prey and predator populations beyond protected areas. By estimating leopard occupancy outside of protected areas, the research establishes a baseline for developing management strategies to ensure the continued existence of leopards in Nepal's multi-use landscapes.

Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape↗