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USGS2012

History of surface displacements at the Yellowstone Caldera, Wyoming, from leveling surveys and InSAR observations, 1923-2008

Modern geodetic studies of the Yellowstone caldera, Wyoming, and its extraordinary tectonic, magmatic, and hydrothermal systems date from an initial leveling survey done throughout Yellowstone National Park in 1923 by the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey. A repeat park-wide survey by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the University of Utah during 1975-77 revealed that the central part of the caldera floor had risen more than 700 mm since 1923, at an average rate of 14±1 mm/yr. From 1983 to 2007, the USGS conducted 15 smaller surveys of a single level line that crosses the northeast part of the caldera, including the area where the greatest uplift had occurred from 1923 to 1975-77. The 1983 and 1984 surveys showed that uplift had continued at an average rate of 22±1 mm/yr since 1975-77, but no additional uplift occurred during 1984-85 (-2±5 mm/yr), and during 1985-95 the area subsided at an average rate of 19±1 mm/yr. The change from uplift to subsidence was accompanied by an earthquake swarm, the largest ever recorded in the Yellowstone area (as of March 2012), starting in October 1985 and located near the northwest rim of the caldera. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images showed that the area of greatest subsidence migrated from the northeast part of the caldera (including the Sour Creek resurgent dome) during 1992-93 to the southwest part (including the Mallard Lake resurgent dome) during 1993-95. Thereafter, uplift resumed in the northeast part of the caldera during 1995-96, while subsidence continued in the southwest part. The onset of uplift migrated southwestward, and by mid-1997, uplift was occurring throughout the entire caldera (essentially rim to rim, including both domes). Consistent with these InSAR observations, leveling surveys indicated 24±3 mm of uplift in the northeast part of the caldera during 1995-98. The beginning of uplift was coincident with or followed shortly after an earthquake swarm near the north caldera rim during June-July 1995 - the strongest swarm since 1985. Rather than a single deformation source as inferred from leveling surveys, the InSAR images revealed two distinct sources - one beneath each resurgent dome on the caldera floor. Subsequently, repeated GPS surveys (sometimes referred to as "campaign" surveys to distinguish them from continuous GPS observations) and InSAR images revealed a third deformation source beneath the north caldera rim. The north-rim source started to inflate in or about 1995, resulting in as much as 80 mm of surface uplift by 2000. Meanwhile, motion of the caldera floor changed from uplift to subsidence during 1997-8. The north rim area rose, while the entire caldera floor (including both domes) subsided until 2002, when both motions paused. Uplift in the northeast part of the caldera resumed in mid-2004 at a historically unprecedented rate of as much as 70 mm/yr, while the north rim area subsided at a lesser rate. Resurveys of the level line across the northeast part of the caldera in 2005 and 2007 indicated the greatest average uplift rate since the initial survey in 1923-53±3 mm/yr. Data from a nearby continuous GPS (CGPS) station showed that the uplift rate slowed to 40-50 mm/yr during 2007-8 and to near zero by September 2009. Following an intense earthquake swarm during January-February 2010, this one near the northwest caldera rim and the strongest since the 1985 swarm in the same general area, CGPS stations recorded the onset of subsidence throughout the entire caldera. Any viable model for the cause(s) of ground deformation at Yellowstone should account for (1) three distinct deformation sources and their association with both resurgent domes and the north caldera rim; (2) interplay among these sources, as suggested by the timing of major changes in deformation mode; (3) migration of the area of greatest subsidence or uplift from the northeast part of the caldera to the southwest part during 1992-95 and 1995-97, respectively; (4) repeated cycles of uplift and subsidence and sudden changes from uplift to subsidence or vice versa; (5) spatial and temporal relationships between changes in deformation mode and strong earthquake swarms; and (6) lateral dimensions of all three deforming areas that indicate source depths in the range of 5 to 15 km. We prefer a conceptual model in which surface displacements at Yellowstone are caused primarily by variations in the flux of basaltic magma into the crust beneath the caldera. Specifically, we envision a magmatic conduit system beneath the northeast part of the caldera that supplies basalt from a mantle source to an accumulation zone at 5-10 km depth, perhaps at a rheological boundary within a crystallizing rhyolite body remnant from past eruptions. Increases in the magma flux favor uplift of the caldera and decreases favor subsidence. A delicate equilibrium exists among the mass and heat flux from basaltic intrusions, heat and volatile loss from the crystallizing rhyolite body, and the overlying hydrothermal system. In the absence of basalt input, steady subsidence occurs mainly as a result of fluid loss from crystallizing rhyolite. At times when a self-sealing zone in the deep hydrothermal system prevents the escape of magmatic fluid, the resulting pressure increase contributes to surface uplift within the caldera; such episodes end when the seal ruptures during an earthquake swarm. To account for the north rim deformation source, we propose that magma or fluid exsolved from magma episodically escapes the caldera system at the three-way structural intersection of (1) the northern caldera boundary, (2) an active seismic belt to the north-northwest that is associated with the Hebgen Lake fault zone, and (3) the Norris - Mammoth corridor - a zone of faults, volcanic vents, and thermal activity that strikes north from the north rim of the caldera near Norris Geyser Basin to Mammoth Hot Springs near the northern boundary of Yellowstone National Park. Increased fluid flux out of the caldera by way of this intersection favors subsidence of the north rim area, and decreased flux favors uplift. This model does not account for poroelastic and thermoelastic effects, nonelastic rheology, or heat and mass transport in the hot and wet subcaldera crust. Such effects almost surely play a role in caldera deformation and are an important topic of ongoing research.

Wyoming↗

USGS1987

Geologic map of the east part of the San Francisco Volcanic Field, north-central Arizona

The geologic map of the east part of the San Francisco volcanic field (called the East map area) is one of five adjoining geologic maps (fig. 1) prepared under the Geothermal Research Program of the U.S. Geological Survey as a basis for interpreting the history of magmatic activity in the volcanic field. This map is a revision of an earlier one (Moore and Wolfe, 1976). Detail of pyroclastic and alluvial deposits has been reduced for clarity on this uncolored version, and eolian deposits, represented by numerous active dunes of basaltic ash, have been completely omitted. Small cinder cones developed over rootless vents on the basalt flow (Qbb) of = vent 2019 have also been omitted. In addition, a few changes have been made in correlations of flows and vents. The stratigraphic classification has been modified because magnetic-polarity determinations and new K-Ar ages indicate that the physiographically defined Tappan and Woodhouse age groups (Moore and others, 1976) overlap significantly in age, and the rocks of those age groups are now assigned to the Brunhes or Matuyama Polarity Chronozones (Mankinen and Dalrymple, 1979). The San Francisco field, which is largely Pliocene and Pleistocene in age, is in northern Arizona, just north of the broad transition zone between the Colorado Plateau and the Basin and Range province. It is one of several dominantly basaltic volcanic fields of late Cenozoic age situated near the southern margin of the Colorado Plateau. The East map area encompasses approximately 1,220 km 2 . The volcanic field contains rocks ranging in composition from basalt to rhyolite--the products of eruption through Precambrian basement rocks and approximately a kilometer of overlying, nearly horizontal, Paleozoic and Mesozoic sedimentary rocks. About 500 km 3 of erupted rocks cover about 5,000 km 2 of predominantly Permian and locally preserved Triassic sedimentary rocks that form the erosionally stripped surface of the Colorado Plateau in northern Arizona. In the East map area, basalt, basaltic andesite and locally associated small dacite domes, and, in a few cases, andesite were extruded from numerous individual vents, each of which presumably erupted briefly and then became inactive. Such short-lived vents, represented mainly by cinder cones or tuff rings, are widely distributed over the map area, and their flows cover much of its surface. However, repeated eruption of andesite, dacite, and rhyolite domes and flows formed the O'Leary Peak eruptive center in the northwest part of the map area, and flows of andesite (Qa 1 and Qa 2 ) from the San Francisco Mountain stratovolcano entered the East map area from the west. A northeastward progression of volcanism during the past 15 m.y., from central Arizona into the San Francisco volcanic field, is shown by the compilation of Luedke and Smith (1978). Although complicated in detail, a general northeastward to eastward progression of volcanic activity is also apparent within the San Francisco volcanic field. Thus, much of the eruptive activity of the East map area occurred late in the development of the San Francisco field, and the East map area includes the youngest volcanic rocks of the field. These youngest rocks were formed during the Sunset Crater eruption, which occurred within the past 1,000 years (Smiley, 1958). A northeast-trending, faulted monocline occurs near Doney Mountain in the north-central part of the East map area, and a broad north- to northwest-trending anticline occurs at the east edge of the map area. Nearby volcanic rocks are not folded or faulted by either structure. Northwest-trending normal faults of small throw occur in the southern and northwestern parts of the map area. The faults in the northwestern part transect basalt flows of Matuyama and Brunhes ages (Tmb, Qmb, and Qbb). The volcanic rocks are not faulted elsewhere in the East map area. However, local northwestward elongation and alignment of vent deposits, as shown for example by the fissure deposits of the Sunset Crater eruption (Qbsbf), indicate the presence of a northwest-trending fracture system that apparently localized some of the eruptive feeders.

Arizona↗

USGS2018

Preliminary synthesis and assessment of environmental flows in the middle Verde River watershed, Arizona

A 3-year study was undertaken to evaluate the suitability of the available modeling tools for characterizing environmental flows in the middle Verde River watershed of central Arizona, describe riparian vegetation throughout the watershed, and estimate sediment mobilization in the river. Existing data on fish and macroinvertebrates were analyzed in relation to basin characteristics, flow regimes, and microhabitat, and a pilot study was conducted that sampled fish and macroinvertebrates and the microhabitats in which they were found. The sampling for the pilot study took place at five different locations in the middle Verde River watershed. This report presents the results of this 3-year study. The Northern Arizona Groundwater Flow Model (NARGFM) was found to be capable of predicting long-term changes caused by alteration of regional recharge (such as may result from climate variability) and groundwater pumping in gaining, losing, and dry reaches of the major streams in the middle Verde River watershed. Over the period 1910 to 2006, the model simulated an increase in dry reaches, a small increase in reaches losing discharge to the groundwater aquifer, and a concurrent decrease in reaches gaining discharge from groundwater. Although evaluations of the suitability of using the NARGFM and Basin Characteristic Model to characterize various streamflow intervals showed that smallerscale basin monthly runoff could be estimated adequately at locations of interest, monthly stream-flow estimates were found unsatisfactory for determining environmental flows. Orthoimagery and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data were used to quantify stream and riparian vegetation properties related to biotic habitat. The relative abundance of riparian vegetation varied along the main channel of the Verde River. As would be expected, more upland plant species and fewer lowland species were found in the upper-middle section compared to the lower-middle section, and vice-versa. Vegetation changes within the upper-middle and lower-middle reaches are related to differences in climate and hydrology. In general, the riparian vegetation of the middle Verde River watershed is that of a healthy ecosystem’s mixed age, mixed patch structure, likely a result of the mostly unaltered disturbance regime. The frequency of in-river hydrogeomorphic features (pool, riffle, run) varied along the middle Verde River channel. There was a greater abundance of riffle habitat in the upper-middle reach; the lower-middle reach included more pool habitat. The Oak Creek tributary was more homogenous in geomorphic stream habitat composition than West Clear Creek, where runs dominated the upper reaches and pools dominated many of the lower reaches. On the basis of the period of record and discharges recorded at 15-minute intervals, five flows were found to reach the gravel-transport threshold. Sediment mobilization computed with flows averaged over daily time steps yielded just three flows that reached the gravel-transport threshold, and monthly averaged flows yielded none. In the middle Verde River watershed, 15-minute data should be used when possible to evaluate sediment transport in the river system. Data from more than 300 fish surveys conducted from 1992 to 2011 were analyzed using two schemes, one that divided the river into five reaches based on basin characteristics, and a second that divided the river into five reaches based on degree of flow alteration (specifically, diversions). Fish community metrics and assemblage data were used to analyze patterns of species composition and abundance in the two approaches. Overall, native and non-native species were regularly interacting and probably competing for similar resources. Fish abundances were also analyzed in response to floods and other flow metrics. Although the data are limited, native fish abundances increased more rapidly than non-native fish abundances in response to large floods. The basin-characteristic reach analysis showed native fish in greater abundance in the upper-middle reaches of the Verde River watershed and generally decreasing with downstream distance. The median relative abundance of native fish decreased by 50 percent from reach 1 to reach 5. Using the reach scheme based on degree of flow alteration, nondiverted reaches were found to have a greater abundance of native fish than diverted reaches. In heavily diverted reaches, non-native species outnumbered native species. Fish metrics and stream-flow metrics for the 30, 90, and 365-day periods before collection were computed and the results analyzed statistically. Only abundance of all fish species was associated with the 30-day flow metrics. The 90-day flow metrics were generally positively associated with fish metrics, whereas the 365-day flow metrics had more negative correlations. In particular, significant relations were found between fish metrics and the magnitude and frequency of high flows, including maximum monthly flow, median annual number of high-flow events, and median annual maximum streamflow. Native sucker (Catostomidae) populations tended to decrease in periods of extended base flow, and fish in the non-native sunfish family (Centrarchidae) decreased in periods of flashy, high magnitude flows. A pilot study surveyed fish at five locations in the upper part of the middle Verde River watershed as a means to measure microhabitat availability and quantify native and non-native fish use of that available microhabitat. Results indicated that native and non-native species exhibit some clear differences in microhabitat use. Although at least some native and non-native fish were found in each velocity, depth, and substrate category, preferential microhabitat use was common. On a percentage basis, non-native species had a strong preference for slow-moving and deeper water with silt and sand substrate, with a secondary preference for faster moving and very shallow water and a coarse gravel substrate. Native species showed a general preference for somewhat faster, moderate depth water over coarse gravel and had no clear secondary preference. Macroinvertebrate-variables index period, high-flow year, and collection location (upper-middle Verde River, lowermiddle Verde River, or Verde River tributaries) were found to be important explanatory variables in differentiating among community metrics. Overall richness (number of unique taxa), Shannon’s diversity index, and the percent of the most dominant taxa were all highly correlated, but their response to each macroinvertebrate variable was different. The percentage of mayfly (order Ephemeroptera) taxa was significantly higher in Oak Creek and the upper-middle and lower-middle Verde River reaches, locations which have higher flows and more urbanization than other reaches. When community metrics were related to hydrologic metrics, caddisfly (order Trichoptera) populations appeared to increase and mayfly populations to decrease in response to less flashy and more stable streamflows. Conversely, caddisfly populations appeared to decrease and mayfly populations to increase in response to greater flow variability. Six locations along the Verde River were sampled for macroinvertebrates as part of a pilot study associated with this report—(1) below Granite Creek, (2) near Campbell Ranch, (3) at the U.S. Geological Survey Paulden gage, (4) at the Perkinsville Bridge, (5) at the USGS Clarkdale gage, and (6) near the Reitz Ranch property. A nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination of macroinvertebrate assemblages showed that the Verde River below Granite Creek site was different from the five other sites and that the Perkinsville Bridge and near Reitz Ranch samples had similar community structure. The near Campbell Ranch and Paulden gage locations had similar microhabitat characteristics, with the exception of riparian cover, yet the assemblage structure was very different. The different community composition at Verde River below Granite Creek was likely due to it having the smallest substrate sizes, lowest velocities, shallowest depths, and most riparian cover of the six sites.

Arizona↗

USGS2018

Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins Geohydrology and optimal water resources management—Developed using density dependent solute transport and optimization models

Groundwater has been a part of the city of Santa Barbara’s water-supply portfolio since the 1800s; however, since the 1960s, the majority of the city’s water has come from local surface water, and the remainder has come from groundwater, State Water Project, recycled water, increased water conservation, and as needed, seawater desalination. Although groundwater from the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins only accounts for a small percentage of the long-term supply, it is an important source of supplemental water during times of surface-water shortages. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, production wells extracted additional groundwater to compensate for drought related water-delivery shortfalls from other sources; in response, water levels declined substantially in the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins (below sea level in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin). In coastal basins that have groundwater extraction near shore, seawater intrusion is often a problem. Seawater intrusion in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin is thought to be more limited than in other coastal basins because of an offshore fault that acts as a partial barrier to groundwater flow. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, seawater intrusion was observed in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, as indicated by increased chloride concentrations at several monitoring wells that ranged from 200 ft to 1,300 ft from the ocean and as close as 2,900 ft to the nearest pumping well. This demonstrated that seawater can intrude into the Santa Barbara groundwater basin when groundwater levels fall below sea level near the coast. The city of Santa Barbara is interested in developing a better understanding of the sustainability of its groundwater supplies. In 2014, California adopted historic legislation to manage its groundwater: the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). The SGMA requires the development and implementation of “Groundwater Sustainability Plans” in 127 priority groundwater basins; although Santa Barbara was not a designated priority basin, the city is taking steps to achieve sustainability. Sustainability was defined in the SGMA in terms of avoiding undesirable results: significant and unreasonable groundwater-level declines, reduction in groundwater storage, seawater intrusion, water-quality degradation, land subsidence, and surface-water depletion. In this project, a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the city of Santa Barbara, sustainable yield is defined as the volume of groundwater that can be pumped from storage without causing water-level drawdowns and the associated increases in seawater intrusion (as indicated by increases in measured chloride concentrations) at selected wells. In order to estimate the sustainability of Santa Barbara’s groundwater basins, a three-dimensional density-dependent groundwater-flow and solute-transport model (the Santa Barbara Flow and Transport Model, or SBFTM) was developed on the basis of an existing groundwater-flow model. To simulate seawater intrusion to the Santa Barbara Basin under various management strategies, the SBFTM uses the USGS code SEAWAT to simulate salinity transport and variable-density flow. The completed SBFTM was coupled with a management optimization tool, in this case a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, to determine optimal pumping strategies that maximize the sustainable yield and at the same time satisfy user-defined drawdown and chloride-concentration constraints. As part of this study, a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was developed to quantify the extent and hydrogeologic characteristics of the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins and to help define the discretization and hydraulic properties used in the SBFTM. The development of the hydrogeologic framework model required the collection and reconciliation of geologic and geophysical data from existing maps, reports, and databases, along with geologic and hydrologic data from recently drilled wells. These data were integrated into a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model that defines the stratigraphy and geometry of the aquifer zones and the major geologic structures in the basin. The hydrogeologic framework model also quantifies the variation in sediment grain size within each aquifer zone as the percentage of coarse-grained sediment. Previous studies indicated that there are two principal water-producing zones in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, the upper and lower producing zones; an additional thin, productive zone was identified as part of this study. This “middle producing zone” is not as areally extensive as the upper and lower producing zones and only exists in the coastal part of Storage Unit I. These producing zones are bounded at depth by less productive shallow, middle, and deep zones. Two versions of the SBFTM were constructed: an initial-condition model and a modern transient model. The initial-condition model is a long-term transient model that simulates flow and solute-transport conditions during a period with limited anthropogenic influences preceeding the modern transient model. The simulation-transient model simulates flow and transport conditions from 1929 through 2013; however, because of data availability, the focus of the model calibration was 1972–2013. The SBFTM was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and drawdown, as well as measured chloride concentrations and change in concentrations, using a combination of automated and trial-and-error parameter-estimation techniques. A sensitivity analysis indicated that, in general, the SBFTM was most sensitive to recharge- and pumping-distribution parameters, specifically those controlling the amount of small-catchment recharge and the distribution of water extraction by hydrogeologic layer for production wells. The model was also sensitive to parameters controlling stream-recharge rates, horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, and porosity. From 1929 to 1971, most of the water entering the area represented by the SBFTM was from creek and small-catchment recharge, and the majority of water leaving the SBFTM area was from pumping, discharge to creeks, and drains. In addition, about 37 percent of the total pumpage came from a net reduction in groundwater storage. From 1972 to 2013, the amount of water entering and leaving the SBFTM was fairly similar as that from 1929 to 1971, except the reduction in pumpage added about 17,000 acre-ft of water to storage. During this later period, there were also times of storage loss. For example, during July 1990, a month when approximately 705 acre-ft of groundwater was pumped in the study area, the pumpage was much greater than all sources of recharge combined, and about 382 acre-ft of water was removed from groundwater storage. Simulated hydraulic heads replicated the observed data to an acceptable matching of the measured water-level, flow direction, and vertical gradients. Simulated hydrographs for selected wells were in good agreement with the measured data, with an average residual of -2.7 ft and a standard deviation of 14.5 ft, indicating that the simulated heads, on average, underestimated the observed water levels. An examination of the model fit indicated that most of the discrepancies were lower simulated heads at wells proximal to production well sites. The simulated chloride concentrations reasonably matched the rising limbs of the measured breakthrough curves in terms of timing and magnitude; however, the simulation overestimated the chloride concentrations on the falling limbs. The overestimation of low chloride concentrations was attributed to the model overestimating the advance of the chloride front during periods of heavy pumping and underestimating the retreat of the chloride front during periods of low pumping. These simulation errors would result in a conservative response by local water managers to seawater intrusion. The SBFTM was used to develop a collection of predictive simulations optimized to produce pumping schedules that maximize yield, subject to a set of constraints and competing objectives. The simulations were grouped as scenarios that differed in their time horizon, initial conditions for groundwater levels and chloride concentrations, as well as precipitation, which was incorporated into the model through simulated recharge. Overall, five scenarios were developed in a multi-objective framework to obtain optimal pumping rates for all of the wells managed by the city, while minimizing excessive drawdown and seawater intrusion. For the current study, complexities in the simulation model and the optimization formulation required additional considerations. Incorporating the solute-transport equations to simulate chloride transport added a highly nonlinear process that is solved iteratively in each time step of the groundwater-flow model. These nonlinearities, coupled with the highly refined grid in the current model, creates challenges for many traditional optimization methods. Therefore, an optimization method was needed that could address nonlinear relationships as well as a very large problem size. Lastly, the optimization problem was reformulated to include multiple objectives without requiring convergence to a single solution. This approach, guided by the city’s objectives, allowed the maximum extraction of information from the complex simulation. Borg, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, was chosen as the optimization algorithm for this study for several reasons: (1) it is very computationally efficient; (2) it can run in parallel; (3) it requires little user input; and (4) it can solve for multiple competing objectives. The first three points allow the algorithm to proceed toward the optimal solutions at the fastest possible rate. The fourth point is advantageous for large, complex optimization problems because it is difficult to formulate the optimization problem in a way that produces only one optimal solution. The problem formulation consisted of four competing objectives and a constraint set in accordance with the main concerns of the city. The objectives were maximizing total pumpage, minimizing seawater intrusion, minimizing total drawdown in production wells, and minimizing the maximum drawdown. The constraints were pump capacity, meeting drinking-water standards for chloride, maintaining a specified minimum flowrate to a groundwater treatment plant, and maintaining minimum water levels in pumping wells. The decision variables either were quarterly pumpage by well or total pumpage by basin. Five optimization scenarios were developed that allow the decision makers to evaluate a range of optimal solutions for a variety of water levels and chloride concentrations as well as potential future climatic conditions. Three scenarios (1, 2, and 5) were multi-objective optimization formulations that allowed for variations in management preferences and climatic conditions. The other two scenarios (3 and 4) were designed to examine the optimization results to answer specific questions. Scenario 1 described the best-case sustainable yield assuming a “full” basin (that is, high initial water levels) and typical climate conditions for 10 years. Scenario 2 also started with a “full” basin; however, this was followed by a 10-year drought. Scenario 3 determined if an “empty” basin (that is, low initial water levels) would recover to full conditions (1998 conditions) given climate assumptions and optimal pumping schedules from scenarios 1 and 2. Scenario 4 was designed to produce decision rules that can be used by water managers to help choose an optimal pumping schedule based on measured water-level or chloride data. Scenario 5 identified future pumping schedules based on short-term climate variations during a 2-year management horizon. The results from scenarios 1 and 2 described the differences in maximum pumpage in the basin under typical and dry long-term climate projections, respectively. The scenario 1 results indicated the maximum 10-year pumpage of the basin was about 31,300 acre-ft under typical conditions and controlling simulated seawater intrusion and drawdowns. For scenario 2, less recharge over the 10-year dry climate produced a maximum pumpage estimate of 30,000 acre-ft to control seawater intrusion and drawdowns. The larger pumpage for scenario 1 resulted in more seawater intrusion, but less total drawdown, compared to that of scenario 2. Results for scenarios 3 and 4 showed the basin’s response to management actions combined with climate projections. Both scenarios used the optimal pumping schedules and the 10-year climates from scenarios 1 and 2. The scenario 3 results showed that under minimal pumping, the basin did not fully recover to 1998 water levels within 10 years under either climate scenario. The relatively larger recharge from the typical climate resulted in less drawdown at coastal monitoring wells after the 10-year recovery period than that from the dry climate. The location of the seawater intrusion front was not appreciably different between the scenarios, however. Scenario 4 used the optimal results from scenarios 1 and 2 to produce decision-rule curves that illustrated the pumpage for each basin, given measured levels of chloride concentration or drawdown. This allowed the use of additional measurements at monitoring wells to assess future management decisions on the basis of the sensitivity of observations of drawdown and seawater intrusion to various pumping rates. Scenario 5 allowed managers to investigate the effects of short-term climate variations on optimal pumping schedules. Three specific 2-year simulations were optimized: typical-to-dry (scenario 5A), dry-to-typical (scenario 5B), and dry-to-dry (scenario 5C). The most noteable result from scenario 5 was the overall reduction in optimal pumpage for most schedules in scenario 5C, when the climate is simulated as dry-to-dry. There are also many optimal pumping schedules that produced an overall increase in waterlevels over the two-year simulation period, regardless of climatic condition. Similar to scenario 2, the scenario 5C results represents conservative yield estimates under a minimal-precipitation climatic condition.

California↗

USGS1996

Summary of the Snake River plain Regional Aquifer-System Analysis in Idaho and eastern Oregon

Regional aquifers underlying the 15,600-square-mile Snake River Plain in southern Idaho and eastern Oregon was studied as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's Regional Aquifer-System Analysis program. The largest and most productive aquifers in the Snake River Plain are composed of Quaternary basalt of the Snake River Group, which underlies most of the 10,8000-square-mile eastern plain. Aquifer tests and simulation indicate that transmissivity of the upper 200 feet of the basalt aquifer in the eastern plain commonly ranges from about 100,000 to 1,000,000 feet squared per day. However, transmissivity of the total aquifer thickness may be as much as 10 million feet squared per day. Specific yield of the upper 200 feet of the aquifer ranges from about 0.01 to 0.20. Average horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the upper 200 feet of the basalt aquifer ranges from less than 100 to 9,000 feet per day. Values may be one to several orders of magnitude higher in parts in individual flows, such as flow tops. Vertical hydraulic conductivity is probably several orders of magnitude lower than horizontal hydraulic conductivity and is generally related to the number of joints. Pillow lava in ancestral Snake River channels has the highest hydraulic conductivity of all rock types. Hydraulic conductivity of the basalt decreases with depth because of secondary filling of voids with calcite and silica. An estimated 80 to 120 million acre-feet of water is believed to be stored in the upper 200 feet of the basalt aquifer in the eastern plain. The most productive aquifers in the 4,800-square-mile western plain are alluvial sand and gravel in the Boise River valley. Although aquifer tests indicate that transmissivity of alluvium in the Boise River valley ranges from 5,000 to 160,000 feet squared per day, simulation suggests that average transmissivity of the upper 500 feet is generally less than 20,000 feet squared per day. Vertically averaged horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the upper 500 feet of alluvium ranges from about 4 to 40 feet per day; higher values can be expected in individual sand and gravel zones. Vertical hydraulic conductivity is considerably lower because of the presence of clay layers. Hydraulic heads measured in piezometers, interpreted from diagrams showing ground-water flow and equipotential lines and estimated by computer simulation, demonstrate that water movement is three dimensional through the rock framework. Natural recharge takes place along the margins of the plain where head decreases with depth; discharge takes place near some reaches of the Snake River and the Boise River where head increases with depth. Geothermal water in rhyolitic rocks in the western plain and western part of the eastern plain has higher hydraulic head than the overlying cold water. Geothermal water, therefore, moves upward and merges into the cold-water system. Basin water-budget analyses indicate that the volume of cold water. Carbon-14 age determinations, which indicate that residence time of geothermal water is 17,700 to 20,300 years, plus or minus 4,000 years, imply slow movement of water through the geothermal system. Along much of its length, the Snake River gains large quantities of ground water. On the eastern plain, the river gained about 1.9 million acre-feet of water between Blackfoot and Neeley, Idaho, in 1980. Between Milner and King Hill, Idaho, the river gained 4.7 million acre-feet, mostly as spring flow from the north side. Upstream from Blackfoot and in the vicinity of Lake Walcott, the rover loses flow to ground water during parts or all of the year. On the western plain, river gains from ground water are small relative to those on the eastern plain; most are from seepage. Streams in tributary drainage basins supply calcium/bicarbonate type and calcium/magnesium/bicarbonate type water to the plain. Water type is a reflection of the chemical composition of rocks in the drainage basin, Concentrations of dissolved solids are smallest, about 50 milligrams per liter, in streams such as the Boise River that drain areas of granitic rocks; concentrations are greatest, about 400 milligrams per liter, in streams such as the Owyhee and Raft Rivers that drain area of sedimentary rocks. Water chemistry reflects the interaction of surface water and ground water. The chemical composition of ground water in the plain is essentially the same as that in streamflow and groundwater discharge from tributary drainage basins. Tributary drainage basins supplied 85 percent of the ground-water recharge in the eastern plain during 1980 and a nearly equivalent percentage of the solute load in ground water; human activities and dissolution of minerals supplied the other solutes. Dissolved-solids concentrations in ground water were generally less than 400 milligrams per liter. Water from the lower geothermal system is chemically different from water from the upper cold-water system. Geothermal water typically has greater concentrations of sodium, bicarbonate, sulfate, chloride, fluoride, silica, arsenic, boron, and lithium and smaller concentrations of calcium, magnesium, and hydrogen. Difference are attributed to ion exchange as geothermal moves through the rock framework. Irrigation, mostly on the Snake River Plain, accounted for about 96 percent of consumptive water use in Idaho during 1980. The use of surface water for irrigation for more than 100 years has caused major changes in the hydrologic system on the plain. Construction of dams, reservoirs, and diversifications effected planned changes in the surface-water system but resulted in largely unplanned changes in the ground-water system. During those years of irrigation, annual recharge in the main part of the eastern plain increased to about 6.7 million acre-feet in 1980, or by about 70 percent. Most of the increase was from percolation of surface water diverted for irrigation. From preirrigation to 1952, groundwater storage increased about 24 million acre-feet, and storage decreased from 1952 to 1964 and from 1976 to 1980 because of below-normal precipitation and increased withdrawals of ground water for irrigation. Annual ground-water discharge increased to about 7.1 million acre-feet in 1980, or about 80 percent since the start of irrigation. About 10 percent of the 1980 total discharge was ground-water pumpage. About 3.1 million acres, or almost one-third of the plain, was irrigated during 1980: 2.0 million acres with surface water, 1.0 million acres with ground water, and 0.1 million acres with combined surface and ground water. About 8.9 million acre-feet of Snake River water was diverted for irrigation during 1980 and 2.3 million acre-feet of ground water was pumped from 5,300 wells. Most irrigation wells on the eastern plain are open to basalt. About two-thirds of them yield more than 1,500 gallons per minute with a reported maximum of 7,240 gallons per minute; drawdown is less than 20 feet in two-thirds of the wells. Most irrigation wells on the western plain are open to sedimentary rocks. About one-third of them yield more than 1,00 gallons per minute with a reported maximum of 3,850 gallons per minute; drawndown is less than 20 feet in about one-fifth of the wells. The major instream use of water on the Snake River Plain is hydroelectric power generation. Fifty-two million acre-feet of water generated 2.6 million megawatthours of electricity during 1980. Digital computer ground-water flows models of the eastern and western plain reasonably simulated regional changes in water levels and ground-water discharges from 1880 (preirrigation) to 1980. Model results support the concept of three-dimensional flow and the hypotheses of no underflow between the eastern and western plain. Simulation of the regional aquifer system in the eastern plain indicates that is 1980 hydrologic conditions, including pumpage, were to remain the same for another 30 years, moderate declines in ground-water levels and decreases in spring discharges would continue. Increased ground-water pumpage to irrigate an additional 1 million acres could cause ground-water levels to decline a few tens of feet in the central part of the plain and could cause corresponding decreases in ground-water discharge. A combination of actions such as increased ground-water pumpage and decreased use of surface water for irrigation (resulting in reduced recharge) would accentuate the changes.

Idaho;Oregon↗

USGS2018

Magmatic origin for sediment-hosted Au deposits, Guizhou Province, China: In situ chemistry and sulfur isotope composition of pyrites, Shuiyindong and Jinfeng deposits

The southwest Guizhou Province, China, contains numerous sediment-hosted Au deposits with Au reserves greater than 700 tonnes. To date, the source of ore fluids that formed the Guizhou sediment-hosted Au deposits is controversial, hampering the formulation of genetic models. In this study, we selected the Shuiyindong and Jinfeng Au deposits, the largest strata-bound and fault-controlled deposits in Guizhou, respectively, for detailed research on pyrite chemistry and S isotope composition using laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) and laser ablation-multicollector-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-MC-ICP-MS), respectively. Petrography and pyrite chemistry studies distinguished five generations of pyrite. Among these, pre-ore pyrite 2 and ore pyrite are the most abundant types in the deposits. Pre-ore pyrite 2 is anhedral to euhedral and with ~2,639 ppm As and wider ranges of Cu, Sb, and Pb (<~22–4,837 ppm, <~6 to 532 ppm, and <~4 to 1,344 ppm, respectively). Gold in pre-ore pyrite 2 is below the detection limit of LA-ICP-MS (~2 ppm). Pre-ore pyrite 2 is interpreted to have a sedimentary (syngenetic or diagenetic) origin. Ore pyrite commonly rims the four identified pre-ore pyrites or occurs as individual, anhedral to euhedral crystals. Ore pyrite is enriched in Au (~641 ppm), As (~9,147 ppm), Cu (~1,043 ppm), Sb (~188 ppm), Hg (~43 ppm), and Tl (~22 ppm) in both deposits. Ore pyrite formed mainly by sulfidation of Fe in Fe-bearing host rocks, mainly Fe dolomite, and As, Cu, Sb, Hg, and Tl, also in ore fluids, were incorporated into ore pyrite. In situ δ 34 S isotope ratios for pre-ore pyrite 2 and ore pyrite were measured by LA-MC-ICP-MS. Pre-ore pyrite 2 from Shuiyindong and Jinfeng deposits resulted in δ 34 S values ranging from −0.8 to +3.4‰ and from 5.1 to 10.5‰, respectively. Analyses of ore pyrite from the Shuiyindong have δ 34 S values that vary from −3.3 to +2.5‰, with a median of 0.7‰; analyses of ore pyrite from the Jinfeng range from 8.9 to 11.2‰, with a median at 10.3‰. Available bulk and in situ δ 34 S data in the literature for pre-ore pyrites 1 and 2 and ore-related sulfide minerals including ore pyrite, arsenopyrite, and late ore-stage stibnite, realgar, orpiment, and cinnabar from several Guizhou sediment-hosted Au deposits were compiled for comparison. Pre-ore-stage pyrites from Guizhou sediment-hosted Au deposits have a broad range of δ 34 S values, from −33.8 to + 17.9‰ (including in situ and available bulk δ 34 S data). Ore-related sulfide minerals in all Guizhou sediment-hosted Au deposits, except Jinfeng, have very similar δ 34 S values, and most data plot between ~−5 and +5‰. In the Jinfeng deposit, the ore-related sulfide minerals exhibit δ 34 S values ranging from 1.9 to 18.1‰, with most data plotting between 6 and 12‰. The broad range of S isotope compositions for the sedimentary pyrites (pre-ore pyrites 1 and 2) indicate that S in these pre-ore pyrites was most likely generated by bacterial reduction from marine sulfate. The narrow range of δ 34 S values (~−5–+5‰) for ore-related sulfide minerals in all Guizhou sediment-hosted Au deposits, excepting the Jinfeng deposit, suggests that the deposits may have formed in response to a single widespread metallogenic event. As the S isotope fractionation between hydrothermal fluids and sulfide minerals in a sulfide-dominated system is small (<2‰) at ~250°C, the initial ore fluids that formed the Guizhou sediment-hosted Au deposits would have had δ 34 S values similar to the ore-related sulfide minerals, between ~−5 and +5‰. At Jinfeng, initial ore fluids may have mixed with local fluids with heavier δ 34 S, possibly basin brine ( δ 34 S basin brine >18‰), resulting in elevated δ 34 S values of ore-related sulfide minerals and especially late ore-stage sulfide minerals. Although few igneous rocks are exposed in the mining area around these deposits, there is evidence of magmatic activity ~20 km away. Furthermore, gravity and magnetic geophysical investigations indicate the presence of a pluton ~5 km below the surface of the Shuiyindong district. Based on in situ S isotope results and recent data indicating proximal intrusions, we interpret a deep magmatic S source for the ore fluids that formed the Guizhou sediment-hosted Au deposits. However, as the age for Au mineralization of Guizhou sediment-hosted Au deposits is still debated, the mineralization-magma connection remains hypothetical. Identifying an ore fluid source and time frame for Guizhou Au mineralization continues to be a critically important research goal for this district.

Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi region↗

USGS2023

Comprehensive water-quality trend analysis for selected sites and constituents in the International Souris River Basin, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada, and North Dakota, United States, 1970–2020

The Souris River Basin is an international basin in southeast Saskatchewan, north-central North Dakota, and southwest Manitoba. Sustained exceedances of water-quality objectives for total phosphorus, sodium, sulfate, total dissolved solids, and total iron have been reported since the late 1990s at the two binational sites on the Souris River (Souris River near Sherwood, North Dakota [U.S. Geological Survey station 05114000] and Souris River near Westhope, N. Dak. [U.S. Geological Survey station 05124000]). To understand conditions at the binational sites, it is important to understand water-quality changes on a basin-wide scale. Because streamflow is highly variable in the basin and changes in streamflow affect water-quality conditions, it is particularly important to use a trend-analysis method that accounts for changes in streamflow. Trends in water-quality concentrations can be affected by human-induced changes on the landscape or natural changes in land-runoff interactions that are driven by climate patterns and reflected by changes in streamflow (commonly referred to as “hydroclimatic variability”). In the primarily agricultural Souris River Basin, human-induced changes that are likely to affect trends are widespread changes in agricultural management such as fertilizer application, tilling practices, and crop types, as well as dam emplacement and artificial drainage. Around 1970, there was a long-term natural (hydroclimatic) change in the basin in which a significant transition from a dry climate state to a wet climate state resulted in higher streamflow in the basin. To assist the International Souris River Board in assessing current water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin and exceedances of water-quality objectives at the binational sites, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, completed a comprehensive analysis for selected ions, nutrients, and trace metals for many sites in the basin that included descriptive water-quality statistics, trend analysis using a trend method that considers interannual hydroclimatic variability, and an assessment of exceedances of the water-quality objectives for the binational sites. Water-quality and streamflow or reservoir inflow or outflow data were compiled for 34 sites (30 stream sites and four reservoir sites) and 23 constituents with established water-quality objectives from 1970 to 2020 in the Souris River Basin and were used for descriptive statistics and water-quality trend analysis. Median total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium concentrations were low in the headwaters of the Souris River and some of the highest median concentrations were measured in the upper basin. At main-stem Souris River sites, all median sodium concentrations were greater than the binational water-quality objective. Median total phosphorus concentrations in the Souris River Basin were highest in the headwaters of the Souris River and all sites had median concentrations greater than the water-quality objective. Median total iron concentrations were highly variable across the basin, and for most main-stem sites, median concentrations were greater than or equal to the water-quality objective. During the recent period (2009–19), the annual flow-averaged concentrations of total dissolved solids and sulfate increased for nearly all stream sites with most sites having mildly significant or significant increases. One-half of the sites had an annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration greater than the total dissolved solids water-quality objective, and four sites had sulfate increases greater than 100 milligrams per liter. Trends in annual flow-averaged concentrations of sodium and chloride generally were small and nonsignificant. Most sites had concentrations greater than the sodium water-quality objective, whereas all sites had concentrations much less than the chloride water-quality objective. Annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration of total phosphorus decreased for nearly all sites across the Souris River Basin, but all sites had concentrations greater than the total phosphorus water-quality objective for the entire period. Small and nonsignificant changes in annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration of total iron were detected at all sites but the binational site at Sherwood, N. Dak., and by 2019 all sites had concentrations greater than the total iron water-quality objective. For the reservoir sites, during 2000–15, mostly significant increases for total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium were detected, whereas changes in total phosphorus and total iron were mixed. During the historical period (1976–2019), large and consistent increases in total dissolved solids and sulfate have occurred since the late 1980s, with the largest increases and the most sites with mildly significant or significant increases generally occurring during the middle period (1988–2005). Large and significant or mildly significant increases in sodium concentrations occurred at eight of 10 sites in the middle period (1988–2005), and by the late period (2005–19) changes were small and nonsignificant. Similar to other basins in the region, such as the Red River of the North and Heart River, large and overall consistent increases since the late 1980s in total dissolved solids and sulfate in the Souris River Basin suggest that long-term natural (hydroclimatic) processes are large contributors to increases in the concentration of salts in streams and reservoirs associated with the onset of wetter conditions. The concurrent increases in sulfate and sodium concentrations at all sites during the middle period (1988–2005) suggest that sodium-sulfate evaporite dissolution may be a factor contributing to increases. Total phosphorus concentrations oscillated between increasing and decreasing during the historical period, with concentrations increasing during the first trend period (1976–88) and decreasing in the fourth trend period (2009–19) to the lowest flow-averaged geometric mean concentration by 2019 for most sites. During the historical period, changes in total iron concentrations were mostly nonsignificant and generally small, and variability in total iron concentrations likely affected the ability to detect statistically significant changes in concentration. The probability of exceeding the water-quality objective for total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium increased between 1976 and 2019 for the binational sites, especially for sulfate, which more than doubled for Souris River near Sherwood, N. Dak. and increased more than seven times for Souris River near Westhope, N. Dak. Total phosphorus and total iron concentrations for the binational sites were likely to exceed the water-quality objective for most of the year, but seasonal patterns of total phosphorus and total iron concentrations were different between the sites, suggesting that different factors may affect concentrations at different times of the year. For sodium, total phosphorus, and total iron, exceedance of the water-quality objective most of the time is not unexpected given that the flow-averaged geometric mean concentration for these three constituents for most sites across the basin are greater than the water-quality objective for most of the period. If natural processes are affecting total dissolved solids and sulfate concentrations, concentrations would be expected to vary with time, and as a result, extended periods of concentrations greater or less than the water-quality objective are likely to occur depending upon climatic conditions. A better understanding of the state of water quality across the Souris River Basin is beneficial to understanding and interpreting water-quality conditions at the two Souris River binational sites. The most consistent spatial and temporal change observed for this study was large and consistent increases in sulfate and total dissolved solids among tributary and main-stem sites since the late 1980s. For sulfate and total dissolved solids, wetter climatic conditions combined with naturally occurring and abundant sources of sulfate likely contributed to sustained exceedances of water-quality objectives in recent decades, and extended periods of concentrations greater than or less than the water-quality objective are likely to occur depending on climatic conditions. For sodium, total iron, and total phosphorus, sustained exceedances of the current water-quality objective likely will continue because most sites across the basin had flow-averaged geometric mean concentrations greater than the water-quality objective; and during the 43-year period of analysis, regardless of climatic conditions, exceedances were consistently greater than the water-quality objective. Further investigation into the factors causing increasing sulfate concentrations and a better understanding of reservoir dynamics would enhance the understanding of changes in water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin. The basin-wide approach of this report provided an improved understanding of water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin, and results can be used to inform the current water-quality objectives, inform potential changes to water management in the basin, and serve as a starting point for tracking future progress. Gaps in understanding of water-quality conditions can be closed through continued monitoring and further investigation into causes behind changes in water-quality conditions identified in this report.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗

USGS2021

Diagenetic barite-pyrite-wurtzite formation and redox signatures in Triassic mudstone, Brooks Range, northern Alaska

Mineralogical and geochemical studies of interbedded black and gray mudstones in the Triassic part of the Triassic-Jurassic Otuk Formation (northern Alaska) document locally abundant barite and pyrite plus diverse redox signatures. These strata, deposited in an outer shelf setting at paleolatitudes of ~45 to 60°N, show widespread sedimentological evidence for bioturbation. Barite occurs preferentially in black mudstones (TOC = 0.93–6.46 wt%), forming displacive euhedral crystals with pyrite inclusions and rims, and late albite inclusions or intergrowths. Pyrite also occurs as small (3–20 μm) framboids, discontinuous laminae, euhedral and anhedral crystals, and replacements of barite and fossils (mainly radiolarians). Paragenetically early wurtzite is present as clusters of very small (1–3 μm) aggregates of radiating crystals 0.5 to 1.0 μm long with cores of organic matter that overgrow framboidal pyrite; later wurtzite forms 10- to 30-μm bladed crystals. Equant grains (3–30 μm) and small (20 μm) angular clusters of zinc sulfide that include <1-μm-long, comb-like structures are sphalerite or wurtzite, or both. Minor siderite forms euhedral crystals intergrown with albite that enclose wurtzite and barite. Illite shows intergrowths with sphalerite; rare K-feldspar is intergrown with barite. Formation of these minerals and assemblages is attributed to early diagenetic processes. Whole-rock geochemical data for 15 samples show large ranges in redox proxies including Post Archean Average Shale (PAAS)-normalized enrichment factors (EFs) for V, U, Mo, and Re, and Al-normalized ratios for V, U, and Mo. Results for most black mudstones, with or without abundant barite and/or pyrite, suggest deposition within an oxygen minimum zone. Cerium anomalies, PAAS-normalized and calculated on a detrital-free basis, range widely from 0.49 to 0.96 and may reflect diagenetic overprinting by Ce-depleted fluids. Considering data for both black and gray mudstones, the overall geochemical pattern together with evidence from pyrite framboid sizes suggest that redox conditions fluctuated greatly from euxinic to oxic, like the redox profiles reported for modern shelf sediments offshore Peru and Namibia. The euxinic redox signatures in some Otuk black mudstones may correlate with widespread Early to Middle Triassic ocean anoxic events proposed for other regions. Calculations of median EFs for trace elements in Otuk black mudstones reveal both enrichments and depletions. Normalizations to the median composition of the three least-mineralized black mudstones show that barite- and/or pyrite-rich samples display large (>50%) positive changes for Li (+80.4%), V (+75.6%), Sr (+75.9%), Ba (+790%), Cu (+92.1%), Ni (+169%), Ag (+156%), Au (+3091%), As (+109%), Sb (+476%), and Se (+205%); Zn shows a moderate positive change of +42.1%. Moderate negative changes are evident only for Ge (−47.2%) and W (−30.6%). The local enrichments may reflect one or more factors including redox variations in bottom waters and pore fluids, element mobility during diagenesis, and selective fractionation into minerals such as barite, pyrite, and wurtzite. Anomalously low U/Al and UEF values, compared to those for other modern and ancient organic-rich sediments and sedimentary rocks, are attributed to increased solubility and loss of U during bioturbation-related oxygenation in the subsurface. Physicochemical constraints on barite, pyrite, and wurtzite formation are informed by use of a pH-fO2 plot constructed at 10 °C. Based on paragenetic evidence for multistage deposition of these three minerals, together with the presence of illite intergrown with ZnS and K-feldspar with barite, proposed diagenetic trends involve an increase in pH and fO2 related to the ingress of sulfate-rich pore fluids during bioturbation, followed by a return to lower then higher pH and fO2 conditions linked to carbon, sulfur, barium, and iron cycling during diagenesis. Labile Ba of marine pelagic origin was mobilized from organic-rich sediment upward to the sulfate-methane transition zone where barite precipitated during the interaction of reduced Ba- and CH4-rich fluids with sulfate-bearing pore fluids. The formation of paragenetically early wurtzite (ZnS) crystals, as well as locally high EF values for Cu, Ni, Ag, and Au, is attributed to metal enrichment of pore fluids, with sources being derived in part from water-column deposition from hydrothermal plumes related to coeval Triassic seafloor vent systems including a volcanogenic massive sulfide deposit in British Columbia and the Wrangellia Large Igneous Province in Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2002

Hydrology, vegetation, and soils of riverine and tidal floodplain forests of the lower Suwannee River, Florida, and potential impacts of flow reductions

A study relating hydrologic conditions, soils, and vegetation of floodplain forests to river flow was conducted in the lower Suwannee River, Florida, from 1996 to 2000. The study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Suwannee River Water Management District to help determine the minimum flows and levels required for wetlands protection. The study area included forests within the 10-year floodplain of the Suwannee River from its confluence with the Santa Fe River to the tree line (lower limit of forests) near the Gulf of Mexico, and covered 18,600 hectares (ha) of forests, 75 percent of which were wetlands and 25 percent uplands. The floodplain was divided into three reaches, riverine, upper tidal, and lower tidal, based on changes in hydrology, vegetation, and soils with proximity to the coast. The Suwannee River is the second largest river in Florida in terms of average discharge. Median flow at the confluence of the Suwannee and Santa Fe Rivers is approximately 181 cubic meters per second (m3/s) or 6,480 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) (1933-99). At the upper end of the riverine reach, river stages are unaffected by tides and have a typical annual range of 4.1 meters (m). Tides affect river stages at low and medium flows in the upper tidal reach, and at all flows in the lower tidal reach. Median tidal range at the mouth of the Suwannee River is about 1 m. Salinity of river water in the lower tidal reach increases with decreasing flow and proximity to the Gulf of Mexico. Vertically averaged salinity in the river near the tree line is typically about 5 parts per thousand at medium flow. Land-surface elevation and topographic relief in the floodplain decrease with proximity to the coast. Elevations range from 4.1 to 7.3 m above sea level at the most upstream riverine transect and from 0.3 to 1.3 m above sea level on lower tidal transects. Surface soils in the riverine reach are predominantly mineral and dry soon after floods recede except in swamps. Surface soils in upper and lower tidal reaches are predominantly organic, saturated mucks. In the downstream part of the lower tidal reach, conductivities of surface soils are high enough (greater than 4 milli-mhos per centimeter) to exclude many tree species that are intolerant of salinity. Species richness of canopy and subcanopy plants in wetland forests in the lower Suwannee River is high compared to other river floodplains in North America. A total of 77 tree, shrub, and woody vine species were identified in the canopy and subcanopy of floodplain wetland forests (n = 8,376). Fourteen specific forest types were mapped using digitized aerial photographs, defined from vegetative sampling, and described in terms of plant species composition. For discussion purposes, some specific wetland types were combined, resulting in three general wetland forest types for each reach. Riverine high bottomland hardwoods have higher canopy species richness than all other forest types (40-42 species), with Quercus virginiana the most important canopy tree by basal area. The canopy composition of riverine low bottomland hardwoods is dominated by five species with Quercus laurifolia the most important by basal area. Riverine swamps occur in the lowest and wettest areas with Taxodium distichum the most important canopy species by basal area. Upper tidal bottomland hardwoods are differentiated from riverine forests by the presence of Sabal palmetto in the canopy. Upper tidal mixed forests and swamps are differentiated from riverine forests, in part, by the presence of Fraxinus profunda in the canopy. Nyssa aquatica, the most important canopy species by basal area in upper tidal swamps, is absent from most forests in the lower tidal reach where its distribution is probably restricted by salinity. Hydric hammocks, a wetland type that is rare outside of Florida, are found in the lower tidal reach and are flooded every 1-2 years by either storm surge or river floods. Lower tidal mixed forests and swamps have continuously saturated muck soils and are differentiated from upper tidal forests, in part, by the presence of Magnolia virginiana in the canopy. Lower tidal swamps have the highest density of canopy trees (about 1,200 trees per hectare) of all floodplain forest types, with Nyssa biflora the most important canopy species by basal area. Water use in the Suwannee River basin in Florida and Georgia is expected to increase over time because of anticipated growth and development in the region and adjacent areas. If increased water consumption reduced river flow, river stage would decrease and salinity would increase, resulting in a variety of impacts on forest composition, wetland biogeochemical processes, and fish and wildlife habitat. Forest composition in the floodplain is primarily determined by duration of inundation and saturation, depth and frequency of floods, and salinity. Long-term flow reductions would result in shallower flood depths, allowing drier and more tidal species to invade wetland forests of the riverine and upper tidal reaches. If flows were reduced 2.8-56 m3/s (100-2,000 ft3/s), an estimated 52-1,140 ha, respectively, would change to a drier forest type, and 36-788 ha, respectively, would change to a more tidal forest type. The greatest impacts would occur in swamps, where important swamp species such as Taxodium distichum and Nyssa aquatica could have increased competition not only from drier or more tidal species, but also from opportunistic bottomland hardwoods or invasive exotic species. Reduced flows could also result in a conversion of some wetland forests to uplands, increasing vulnerability to human disturbance, and decreasing tree basal area, species richness, and diversity of wildlife habitat. Salt-intolerant species would move upstream if flow reductions increased salinity in the lower tidal reach. If flows were reduced 2.8-56 m3/s (100-2,000 ft3/s), the area of forests along the tree line that would convert to marshes is estimated to be 72-618 ha, respectively. Loss of forests at the tree line would result in a loss of complex vertical structural diversity and woody micro-habitats that are used by many animals. These changes are already occurring due to sea level rise, but changes would occur more quickly if salinities increased as a result of flow reductions. The amount of inundated and saturated area in the floodplain forest of the riverine reach would decrease if flows were reduced. The greatest impacts would result from flow reductions that occurred at low flows, when inundated and saturated areas in the floodplain are limited. Drier conditions would result in oxidation of organic matter in swamp soils, which would reduce the soil's water-holding capacity and ability to retain water during droughts. Drier soils would increase vulnerability of the floodplain to fire and could also reduce the ability of riverine forests to remove nitrates and other pollutants from river water. Loss of inundated areas resulting from flow reductions at low flow would eliminate aquatic habitats that are critical to the survival of floodplain fishes and aquatic invertebrates, and are important to many other animals that use the floodplain. If flow reductions occurred during high flows, main channel fishes could decrease in diversity and abundance because they are seasonally dependent on flooded forests for food, shelter, and reproduction. In addition, aquatic organisms in the river and estuary could be adversely affected because they depend on particulate organic detritus and other floodplain exports as food sources.

Florida↗

USGS2025

Fluvial sediment dynamics in the Shoshone River and tributaries around Willwood Dam, Park County, Wyoming

Sedimentation affects many of the aging reservoirs in the United States. Dams and water diversions from rivers have been central elements of infrastructure supporting agricultural irrigation in the arid and semiarid regions of the Western United States for more than a century. The Willwood Irrigation District diversion dam (hereafter referred to as “Willwood Dam”) in Park County, Wyoming, is approximately 12 miles northeast of Cody, Wyo.; has a structural height of 70 feet; and impounds the Shoshone River for diversion into the Willwood Canal. Willwood Dam is part of a larger irrigation scheme supported by water storage in the much larger Buffalo Bill Dam, which is approximately 20 miles upstream. In October 2016, renovation construction activities at Willwood Dam and the Willwood Canal caused an unplanned evacuation of nearly 96,000 cubic yards of fine sediment. The fine sediment release in 2016 raised concerns that ongoing sediment management at Willwood Dam could impose limits on the long-term health of the aquatic ecosystem and fish populations. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality and Willwood Work Groups 2 and 3, initiated an investigation of the dynamics of sediment transport in the Shoshone River and selected tributaries between Buffalo Bill Dam and Willwood Dam. The goal of the study was to quantify sediment transport into and out of Willwood Dam on an annual, seasonal, and event basis to better understand the relative quantities of sediment coming from natural sources and human activities on the landscape. The study ran from March 2019 through October 2021 and used observations of streamflow, turbidity, and acoustic backscatter collected at streamgages upstream and downstream from Willwood Dam to quantify suspended-sediment loads into and out of the dam during irrigation and fallow seasons, precipitation-runoff events, and deliberate sediment releases. Each tributary’s relative contribution to the sediment load upstream from Willwood Dam was examined using discrete measurements of suspended-sediment concentration and bedload during irrigation and fallow seasons, precipitation events, and stable conditions. Analysis of daily precipitation and temperature data indicated that conditions in the study area during the 2019 agricultural year were wetter and colder than period of record normal, and drier and near normal temperatures for the 2020 and 2021 agricultural years. Not all sediment load records between 2019 and 2021 are complete because of rejected observations (outliers), instrument failures or fouling, and instrument removal for calibrations. Statistical modeling of suspended-sediment concentration using paired values of turbidity and acoustic backscatter produced four models that, after refinement, had coefficients of determination indicating that more than 84 percent of the variance was explained by either turbidity or acoustic backscatter. A system of rules was developed to select the model predictions based on the seasonal operations of Willwood Dam, assumptions about the grain sizes mobilized during these operations, and assumed accuracy of the models at the downstream streamgage (Shoshone River below Willwood Dam, near Ralston, Wyo. [streamgage 06284010]) under different operational conditions. The sediment budget between upstream and downstream estimates of loads was interpreted using the mean predicted values bound by their respective model prediction intervals. When mean predicted loads of one streamgage were contained in the prediction intervals of the other streamgage, and vice-versa, difference in the sediment budget were interpreted as “indeterminate.” Modeled sediment load balances demonstrated the depositional and erosional behaviors expected from the conceptual model of dam operations whereby sediment tends to accumulate during irrigation seasons when the dam is spilling over the top, and sediment tends to evacuate during the fallow seasons when it is flowing through the sluice gates at the base of the dam. The sediment load calculations using the rules-based model criteria indicated that between 14,200 and 380,000 tons of suspended sediment moved through the Shoshone River around Willwood Dam during the irrigation seasons of 2019, 2020, and 2021; 380,000 tons of suspended sediment were transported during the cool, wet year of 2019, and 14,200 tons of suspended sediment were transported in 2020, which was relatively dry. During fallow seasons 2019, 2020, and 2021, which had fewer complete records, between 1,140 and 106,000 tons of suspended sediment was estimated to have moved through the river. For all seasons except fallow season 2022, the models estimated that more sediment was released from the dam than entered the dam, but the modeled mean loads at each streamgage were nearly always within the prediction intervals of each other, making the sediment balance indeterminant. Examination of suspended-sediment loads during irrigation seasons indicated that between 65 and 85 percent of fine sediment was transported during annual high flows and storm events, with the remainder transported during steady, lower streamflows. Examination of suspended loads during fallow seasons indicated that deliberate sediment releases through Willwood Dam accounted for between 39 and 67 percent of the total sediment moved during the fallow seasons. Deliberate sediment releases from Willwood Dam had estimated net exports of between 1,360 and 22,400 tons. Between August 2017 and July 2023, suspended-sediment concentration and bedload sediment samples were collected from 9 tributaries to the Shoshone River during 137 sampling events, including stable and precipitation-runoff conditions. During irrigation season precipitation events, the mean total sediment yields ranged from 0.33 to 9.51 tons per day per square mile; during fallow season precipitation events, the mean total yields ranged from 0.04 to 0.95 ton per day per square mile. The mean total sediment yield per unit area across all samples at each tributary site ranged from 0.26 to 3.08 tons per day per square mile. Bedload was a minor fraction of the total load, constituting a mean of 4 percent across all samples; 3 and 6 percent for events and nonevents, respectively, during irrigation season; and 3 and 1 percent for events and nonevents, respectively, during the fallow season. With the exception of one tributary, Dry Creek, these mean yield values were within the range of watershed-scale background sediment yield values estimated from reservoir surveys and previous suspended-sediment studies. Imagery from irrigation seasons 2012, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2022 was used to determine the planimetric backwater extent of the pool area in the Shoshone River behind Willwood Dam to identify any changes in sediment storage. Active river channel widths in the Shoshone River upstream from Willwood Dam were all similar between years except 2015, which was determined to be statistically different from all other years. Bathymetric data taken in the pool behind Willwood Dam during three different surveys between November 2017 and April 2022 indicated no statistically significant differences in bed elevations between the years. Results from the planimetric and bathymetric survey data provide multiple lines of evidence indicating that sediment did not accumulate behind the dam within the error of the methods used. Examination of how precipitation affects sediment transport in the Shoshone River upstream from Willwood Dam indicated that accumulated rainfall from the natural runoff events captured during the study period varied from a trace to as much as 4.26 inches, with associated predicted suspended-sediment loads varying from 112 to 232,000 tons of suspended sediment. The behavior of the sediment loads relative to accumulated precipitation did not appear to change depending on irrigation or fallow season. A model of suspended-sediment concentrations relative to the 2-day accumulated precipitation indicated that suspended-sediment concentrations in the Shoshone River upstream from Willwood Dam increased exponentially for accumulations of 0.3 inch or more; such storms accounted for 10 percent or less of precipitation events observed during the 1981 to 2018 period of record. The gaps in records, precision of the instrumentation, and large variation in grain sizes in suspended-sediment mixtures downstream from the dam made closing the sediment budgets for most seasons unattainable. The biggest recent change in sediment storage measured using the planimetric area of deposits behind Willwood Dam took place between 2015 and 2017. The main event between these two measurements was the installation of new Willwood Canal gates in October 2016, which resulted in the large unplanned sediment release. Because the sediment budgets were nearly always indeterminate and the planimetric and bathymetric data indicated little change in the bed and bank material, it is likely that the change in sediment storage behind the dam during the study period was small relative to the precision of the statistical models and other uncertainties. This body of evidence suggests that, averaged during the 3-year study period, no major changes in storage took place, and that the current operations may be keeping storage at near-equilibrium. This condition could have been initiated because the middle sluice gate has now been operational since 2014, and the sediment release in October 2016 evacuated a large amount of legacy sediment from storage. Although the uncertainties are large, sluicing events allow for controlled releases of sediment that contributed to the near equilibrium conditions observed over an annual basis during this study.

Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Precipitation, temperature, groundwater-level elevation, streamflow, and potential flood storage trends within the Brazos, Colorado, Big Cypress, Guadalupe, Neches, Sulphur, and Trinity River basins in Texas through 2017

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), analyzed streamflow trends and streamflow-related variables through 2017 in seven important water-supply basins to provide information that can help water managers with the USACE and river authorities make future water management decisions. The primary purpose of this report is to document trends in long-term streamflow data at 114 selected USGS streamflow-gaging stations and 36 simulated reservoir-inflow stations in 7 river basins primarily in Texas: Brazos, Colorado, Big Cypress, Guadalupe, Neches, Sulphur, and Trinity. In this report, trends were considered statistically significant if their p -values were less than or equal to 0.05 ( p -value ≤0.05). Streamflow data selected for temporal trend analyses included annual minimum streamflow, annual peak streamflow, and streamflow volume. Precipitation, air temperature, and groundwater-level-elevation data were analyzed for trends that may help to explain changes observed in the streamflow statistics. Basins were divided into sections along county lines for precipitation analyses. Streamflow volumes were analyzed for associations with potential flood storage. The potential flood storage, defined as the difference between maximum storage and normal storage, was computed for each dam from the National Inventory of Dams database and accumulated over time based on the completion date of the dam. Precipitation and air temperature trends were analyzed for each of the eight climate divisions (High Plains, Trans-Pecos, Low Rolling Hills, Edwards Plateau, North Central Texas, South Central Texas, East Texas, and Upper Coast). Results of precipitation trend analyses indicated moderate upward trends in the Upper Coast and East Texas Climate Divisions analyzed on an annual time step from 1900 through 2017. These two climate divisions are in the eastern and southeastern parts of the State, and they receive more mean annual precipitation (45.88 and 46.09 inches, respectively) than the other climate divisions. The results of air temperature analyses indicated upward trends in annual mean air temperature within all climate divisions, with a mean slope of 0.02 degree Fahrenheit per year, or 1 degree every 50 years. Within the Brazos River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated that precipitation amounts are most likely increasing in the lower and middle sections of the basin. Downward trends in annual streamflow and in the ratio of streamflow volume to precipitation volume were indicated at 7 of the 15 stations in the upper sections of the basin. The lower sections of the basin had mostly downward trends in annual minimum streamflow, whereas upward trends in annual minimum streamflow were indicated in the upper sections of the basin. Downward trends in annual peak streamflow were indicated at many of the stations in the upper sections of the basin. At the same seven stations in the upper sections of the basin where there were downward trends in annual streamflow, there were also downward trends in the ratio of streamflow volume to precipitation volume. The data from the same seven stations indicated negative associations between potential flood storage volume and annual streamflow volume and downward trends in the ratio of annual streamflow volume to potential flood storage volume. With the known addition of 13,006,394 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1900 and 2010 in the subbasins analyzed, streamflow volumes have decreased in the upper sections of the Brazos River Basin. Within the Colorado River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated no trends in the basin. Downward trends in annual streamflow were indicated at 16 stations in the upper sections of the basin, whereas no trends in annual streamflow were indicated in the lower section of the basin. In the lower section of the basin, one station that was operated as a continuous streamflow-gaging station through 2017 had a downward trend in annual minimum streamflow, and another station (operated through 2007) had an upward trend in annual minimum streamflow. In the upper sections of the basin, data from seven stations indicated upward trends in annual minimum streamflow, and data from six stations indicated downward trends. Data from 18 stations in the upper sections of the basin indicated downward trends in annual peak streamflow. Thirteen of the 16 stations in the upper sections of the basin with data that indicated downward trends in annual streamflow also have data that indicated downward trends in the ratio of streamflow volume to precipitation volume. Data from the same 13 stations indicated negative associations between potential flood storage volume and annual streamflow volume and downward trends in the ratio of annual streamflow volume to potential flood storage volume. With the known addition of 7,193,147 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1891 and 2014 in the subbasins analyzed, streamflow volumes have decreased in the upper sections of the Colorado River Basin. Within the Big Cypress Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on annual, seasonal, and monthly time steps indicated almost no trends in the basin as defined in this report. However, the annual precipitation p -value only slightly exceeded the p -value threshold for a statistically significant trend. Given the upward trend in precipitation in the East Texas Climate Division, which includes the Big Cypress Basin, and the low p -value for annual precipitation within the basin, precipitation in the basin may be increasing over time. Two annual streamflow trends, one upward and one downward, were in the upper parts of the basin. Data from USGS streamflow-gaging station 07346000 Big Cypress Bayou near Jefferson, Texas, indicated an upward trend in annual minimum streamflow and a downward trend in annual peak streamflow. The station is immediately downstream from Lake O’ the Pines; presumably, minimums have increased because of regulated releases, and annual peaks have decreased because of storage from the lake for flood control. Despite the known addition of 2,737,154 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1898 and 2011 in the subbasins analyzed, there have not been widespread reductions in streamflow volumes in the Big Cypress Basin, except for within the drainage area for the farthest upstream station on the main stem downstream from Mount Pleasant, Texas. Within the Guadalupe River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated an upward trend in the lower section of the basin, but no trends in annual streamflow were indicated in the lower section of the basin. In the upper section of the basin, data from 1 of the 13 stations indicated an upward trend in annual streamflow. Data from 6 of the 13 stations in the upper section of the basin indicated a trend in annual minimum streamflow with 4 upward and 2 downward trends. Data from 2 of the 13 stations in the upper section of the basin indicated downward trends in annual peak streamflow. Despite the known addition of 2,016,534 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1849 and 2013 in the subbasins analyzed, streamflow volumes have not decreased in the Guadalupe River Basin. Within the Neches River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated upward trends in the basin. None of the data from stations analyzed in the Neches River Basin indicated annual trends in streamflow despite upward trends in annual precipitation within the basin. Data from 9 of the 19 stations analyzed in the basin indicated upward trends in annual minimum streamflow. Data from one of the simulated-inflow stations indicated a downward trend in annual minimum streamflow into Sam Rayburn Reservoir. Data from two stations indicated downward trends in annual peak streamflow, and data from one small subbasin indicated an upward trend in annual peak streamflow. Despite the known addition of 4,839,609 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1888 and 2008 in the subbasins analyzed, there have not been widespread reductions in streamflow volumes in the Neches River Basin. Within the Sulphur River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated a moderate upward trend within the basin. Data from only one of the stations, the simulated inflow to Jim Chapman Lake, indicated an annual upward trend in streamflow despite an upward trend in annual precipitation throughout the basin. Data from three of the six stations in the Sulphur River Basin indicated upward trends in annual minimum streamflow, and data from one of the six stations indicated a downward trend in annual peak streamflow. Despite the known addition of 6,933,361 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1904 and 2006 in the subbasins analyzed, streamflow volumes have not decreased in the Sulphur River Basin. Within the Trinity River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated upward trends in most sections of the basin. Data from 8 of the 36 stations analyzed for trends in annual streamflow indicated upward trends, and all 8 stations are in the upper sections of the basin. None of the data from stations in the lower sections of the basin indicated trends in annual streamflow. Data from 16 of the 36 stations indicated upward trends in annual minimum streamflow. Upward trends in annual minimum streamflow could be the result of managed reservoir releases in combination with wastewater treatment plant releases in the large Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex in the upper sections of the basin. All the trends in annual peak streamflow were in the sections of the basin that include the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Data from two stations, one USGS streamflow-gaging station and one simulated-inflow station, indicated upward trends in annual peak streamflow, and data from one streamflow-gaging station indicated a downward trend in annual peak streamflow. Of the basins included in this study, the Trinity River Basin has the second largest amount of potential flood storage of 8,947,349 acre-feet from dams added between 1890 and 2013. Eleven stations in the Trinity River Basin had positive associations between potential flood storage volume and annual streamflow volume, indicating that annual streamflow increases as potential flood storage increases. Data from 7 of the 11 stations also indicated upward trends in annual streamflow. The positive associations may be the result of increases in minimum streamflow, which could be the result of any combination of managed reservoir releases, wastewater treatment plant releases, or increased runoff from urbanized areas, particularly in the urbanized area of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.

Texas↗