SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Nature Climate Change”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,207 records · Page 67Linked to original sources

USGS1998

Mesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climatic variability in the American Southwest

Ecological responses to climatic variability in the Southwest include regionally synchronized fires, insect outbreaks, and pulses in tree demography (births and deaths). Multicentury, tree-ring reconstructions of drought, disturbance history, and tree demography reveal climatic effects across scales, from annual to decadal, and from local (<102 km2) to mesoscale (104-106 km2). Climate-disturbance relations are more variable and complex than previously assumed. During the past three centuries, mesoscale outbreaks of the western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis) were associated with wet, not dry episodes, contrary to conventional wisdom. Regional fires occur during extreme droughts but, in some ecosystems, antecedent wet conditions play a secondary role by regulating accumulation of fuels. Interdecadal changes in fire-climate associations parallel other evidence for shifts in the frequency or amplitude of the Southern Oscillation (SO) during the past three centuries. High interannual, fire-climate correlations (r = 0.7 to 0.9) during specific decades (i.e., circa 1740-80 and 1830-60) reflect periods of high amplitude in the SO and rapid switching from extreme wet to dry years in the Southwest, thereby entraining fire occurrence across the region. Weak correlations from 1780 to 1830 correspond with a decrease in SO frequency or amplitude inferred from independent tree-ring width, ice core, and coral isotope reconstructions. Episodic dry and wet episodes have altered age structures and species composition of woodland and conifer forests. The scarcity of old, living conifers established before circa 1600 suggests that the extreme drought of 1575-95 had pervasive effects on tree populations. The most extreme drought of the past 400 years occurred in the mid-twentieth century (1942-57). This drought resulted in broadscale plant dieoffs in shrublands, woodlands, and forests and accelerated shrub invasion of grasslands. Drought conditions were broken by the post-1976 shift to the negative SO phase and wetter cool seasons in the Southwest. The post-1976 period shows up as an unprecedented surge in tree-ring growth within millennia-length chronologies. This unusual episode may have produced a pulse in tree recruitment and improved rangeland conditions (e.g., higher grass production), though additional study is needed to disentangle the interacting roles of land use and climate. The 1950s drought and the post-1976 wet period and their aftermaths offer natural experiments to study long-term ecosystem response to interdecadal climate variability.Ecological responses to climatic variability in the Southwest include regionally synchronized fires, insect outbreaks, and pulses in tree demography (births and deaths). Multicentury, tree-ring reconstructions of drought, disturbance history, and tree demography reveal climatic effects across scales, from annual to decadal, and from local (<102 km2) to mesoscale (104-106 km2). Climate-disturbance relations are more variable and complex than previously assumed. During the past three centuries, mesoscale outbreaks of the western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis) were associated with wet, not dry episodes, contrary to conventional wisdom. Regional fires occur during extreme droughts but, in some ecosystems, antecedent wet conditions play a secondary role by regulating accumulation of fuels. Interdecadal changes in fire-climate associations parallel other evidence for shifts in the frequency or amplitude of the Southern Oscillation (SO) during the past three centuries. High interannual, fire-climate correlations (r = 0.7 to 0.9) during specific decades (i.e., circa 1740-80 and 1830-60) reflect periods of high amplitude in the SO and rapid switching from extreme wet to dry years in the Southwest, thereby entraining fire occurrence across the region. Weak correlations from 1780 to 1830 correspond with a decrease in SO frequency or amplitude inferred from independent tree-ring width, ic

Journal of Climate↗

USGS2022

Identifying translocation sites for a climate relict population of Finescale Dace

Translocation is a management strategy that seeks to address threats to fish and wildlife populations by establishing new populations in ecologically suitable areas. Populations of Finescale Dace Chrosomus neogaeus in the Great Plains may benefit from translocation, as they exhibit a climate relict natural history that has led to a disjunct distribution and minimal dispersal opportunities. We assessed the translocation suitability of sites for Finescale Dace in the Belle Fourche River basin, Wyoming–South Dakota, using a ranking approach for output from multiple analyses. We used multivariate analysis to evaluate dissimilarity in fish occurrence and habitat between sites with and without Finescale Dace in contemporary surveys (2018–2019; n = 68). We further evaluated the capacity for sites to support Finescale Dace under base case and future climate change scenarios using the predicted probability of occurrence ( P ) from species distribution models (SDMs) fitted with basinwide fish occurrence data from surveys conducted in 2008–2019 ( n = 124) and spatially continuous environmental variables, including forecasted stream temperature scenarios. Sites with Finescale Dace tended to occur close to standing waterbodies, contained emergent vegetation cover, and did not exhibit large overlap in species-space with either native or nonnative species. Predicted P of Finescale Dace exhibited nonlinear relationships with mean August stream temperature, channel slope, and base flow index. The amount of suitable habitat (i.e., high predicted P ) declined with forecasted stream warming scenarios in the SDMs. This study highlights the utility of using field observations, historical data, and forecasted climate change scenarios to assess translocation site suitability and inform management of at-risk native fish populations, and the results may be transferable to other populations with limited data or restricted distributions.

South Dakota, Wyoming↗

USGS2026

Poor population recovery of Lake Washington Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in Pacific Northwestern USA may be associated with disease caused by Ceratonova shasta in an urban-influenced watershed

Understanding the effects of anthropogenic changes on fish disease is vital for supporting mitigative actions for fisheries population recovery. The Lake Washington watershed in the Pacific Northwestern United States is influenced by high urban development and climate change, compromising the sustainability of anadromous salmon. We investigated Ceratonova shasta , a myxozoan parasite, in Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha to determine the impacts of C. shasta -induced enteronecrosis during salmon freshwater migrations within this watershed. All sampled adult Chinook Salmon returning to an enhancement hatchery to spawn were infected with genotype I C. shasta with a high prevalence of severe enteritis and enteronecrosis. Parasite loads and associated pathology were more severe in adult fish succumbing to prespawn mortality than in fish that spawned. Natural prespawn mortality of Chinook Salmon in the Cedar River was also associated with high C. shasta loads. Sentinel exposure studies with Chinook Salmon juveniles in the spring and fall demonstrated high levels of C. shasta genotype II actinospores in the Lake Washington Ship Canal, a human engineered canal that salmon must traverse in their freshwater migrations from the Puget Sound. The sentinel juvenile Chinook Salmon succumbed to clinical disease and high mortality from genotype II C. shasta , suggesting that these stocks have high susceptibility to this genotype. The results show that both genotypes I and II pose disease risks to adult and juvenile stages of Chinook Salmon in the watershed, and that the Lake Washington Ship Canal could be a C. shasta ‘hot spot’ for genotype II that may increase disease risk for juveniles during smolt emigration.

Washington↗

USGS1998

Evidence that local land use practices influence regional climate, vegetation, and stream flow patterns in adjacent natural areas

We present evidence that land use practices in the plains of Colorado influence regional climate and vegetation in adjacent natural areas in the Rocky Mountains in predictable ways. Mesoscale climate model simulations using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) projected that modifications to natural vegetation in the plains, primarily due to agriculture and urbanization, could produce lower summer temperatures in the mountains. We corroborate the RAMS simulations with three independent sets of data: (i) climate records from 16 weather stations, which showed significant trends of decreasing July temperatures in recent decades; (ii) the distribution of seedlings of five dominant conifer species in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, which suggested that cooler, wetter conditions occurred over roughly the same time period; and (iii) increased stream flow, normalized for changes in precipitation, during the summer months in four river basins, which also indicates cooler summer temperatures and lower transpiration at landscape scales. Combined, the mesoscale atmospheric/land-surface model, short-term in regional temperatures, forest distribution changes, and hydrology data indicate that the effects of land use practices on regional climate may overshadow larger-scale temperature changes commonly associated with observed increases in CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2005

Aeolian processes at the Mars Exploration Rover Meridiani Planum landing site

The martian surface is a natural laboratory for testing our understanding of the physics of aeolian (wind-related) processes in an environment different from that of Earth. Martian surface markings and atmospheric opacity are time-variable, indicating that fine particles at the surface are mobilized regularly by wind. Regolith (unconsolidated surface material) at the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity's landing site has been affected greatly by wind, which has created and reoriented bedforms, sorted grains, and eroded bedrock. Aeolian features here preserve a unique record of changing wind direction and wind strength. Here we present an in situ examination of a martian bright wind streak, which provides evidence consistent with a previously proposed formational model for such features. We also show that a widely used criterion for distinguishing between aeolian saltation- and suspension-dominated grain behaviour is different on Mars, and that estimated wind friction speeds between 2 and 3 m s-1, most recently from the northwest, are associated with recent global dust storms, providing ground truth for climate model predictions.

Nature↗

USGS2017

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water flow in the upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon

This report describes a hydrologic model for the upper Deschutes Basin in central Oregon developed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) integrated Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow model (GSFLOW). The upper Deschutes Basin, which drains much of the eastern side of the Cascade Range in Oregon, is underlain by large areas of permeable volcanic rock. That permeability, in combination with the large annual precipitation at high elevations, results in a substantial regional aquifer system and a stream system that is heavily groundwater dominated. The upper Deschutes Basin is also an area of expanding population and increasing water demand for public supply and agriculture. Surface water was largely developed for agricultural use by the mid-20th century, and is closed to additional appropriations. Consequently, water users look to groundwater to satisfy the growing demand. The well‑documented connection between groundwater and the stream system, and the institutional and legal restrictions on streamflow depletion by wells, resulted in the Oregon Water Resources Department (OWRD) instituting a process whereby additional groundwater pumping can be permitted only if the effects to streams are mitigated, for example, by reducing permitted surface-water diversions. Implementing such a program requires understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of effects to streams from groundwater pumping. A groundwater model developed in the early 2000s by the USGS and OWRD has been used to provide insights into the distribution of streamflow depletion by wells, but lacks spatial resolution in sensitive headwaters and spring areas. The integrated model developed for this project, based largely on the earlier model, has a much finer grid spacing allowing resolution of sensitive headwater streams and important spring areas, and simulates a more complete set of surface processes as well as runoff and groundwater flow. In addition, the integrated model includes improved representation of subsurface geology and explicitly simulates the effects of hydrologically important fault zones not included in the previous model. The upper Deschutes Basin GSFLOW model was calibrated using an iterative trial and error approach using measured water-level elevations (water levels) from 800 wells, 144 of which have time series of 10 or more measurements. Streamflow was calibrated using data from 21 gage locations. At 14 locations where measured flows are heavily influenced by reservoir operations and irrigation diversions, so called “ naturalized ” flows, with the effects of reservoirs and diversion removed, developed by the Bureau of Reclamation, were used for calibration. Surface energy and moisture processes such as solar radiation, snow accumulation and melting, and evapotranspiration were calibrated using national datasets as well as data from long-term measurement sites in the basin. The calibrated Deschutes GSFLOW model requires daily precipitation, minimum and maximum air temperature data, and monthly data describing groundwater pumping and artificial recharge from leaking irrigation canals (which are a significant source of groundwater recharge). The calibrated model simulates the geographic distribution of hydraulic head over the 5,000 ft range measured in the basin, with a median absolute residual of about 53 ft. Temporal variations in head resulting from climate cycles, pumping, and canal leakage are well simulated over the model area. Simulated daily streamflow matches gaged flows or calculated naturalized flows for streams including the Crooked and Metolius Rivers, and lower parts of the mainstem Deschutes River. Seasonal patterns of runoff are less well fit in some upper basin streams. Annual water balances of streamflow are good over most of the model domain. Model fit and overall capabilities are appropriate for the objectives of the project. The integrated model results confirm findings from other studies and models indicating that most streamflow in the upper Deschutes Basin comes directly from groundwater discharge. The integrated model provides additional insights about the components of streamflow including direct groundwater discharge to streams, interflow, groundwater discharge to the land surface (Dunnian flow), and direct runoff (Hortonian flow). The new model provides improved capability for exploring the timing and distribution of streamflow capture by wells, and the hydrologic response to changes in other external stresses such as canal operation, irrigation, and drought. Because the model uses basic meteorological data as the primary input; and simulates surface energy and moisture balances, groundwater recharge and flow, and all components of streamflow; it is well suited for exploring the hydrologic response to climate change, although no such simulations are included in this report. The model was developed as a tool for future application; however, example simulations are provided in this report. In the example simulations, the model is used to explore the influence of well location and geologic structure on stream capture by pumping wells. Wells were simulated at three locations within a 12-mi area close to known groundwater discharge areas and crossed by a regional fault zone. Simulations indicate that the magnitude and timing of stream capture from pumping is largely controlled by the geographic location of the wells, but that faults can have a large influence on the propagation of pumping stresses.

Oregon↗

USGS2014

Editorial for Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

Hydrological regimes and processes show strong regional differences. While some regions are affected by extreme drought and desertification, others are under threat of increased fluvial and/or pluvial floods. Changes to hydrological systems as a consequence of natural variations and human activities are region-specific. Many of these changes have significant interactions with and implications for human life and ecosystems. Amongst others, population growth, improvements in living standards and other demographic and socio-economic trends, related changes in water and energy demands, change in land use, water abstractions and returns to the hydrological system (UNEP, 2008), introduce temporal and spatial changes to the system and cause contamination of surface and ground waters. Hydro-meteorological boundary conditions are also undergoing spatial and temporal changes. Climate change has been shown to increase temporal and spatial variations of rainfall, increase temperature and cause changes to evapotranspiration and other hydro-meteorological variables (IPCC, 2013). However, these changes are also region specific. In addition to these climate trends, (multi)-decadal oscillatory changes in climatic conditions and large variations in meteorological conditions will continue to occur.

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies↗

USGS2012

Glaciation and regional groundwater flow in the Fennoscandian shield

Regional-scale groundwater flow modeling of the Fennoscandian shield suggests that groundwater flow can be strongly affected by future climate change and glaciation. We considered variable-density groundwater flow in a 1500-km-long and approximately 10-km-deep cross-section through southern Sweden. Groundwater flow and shield brine transport in the cross-sectional model were analyzed under projected surface conditions for the next 140 ka. Simulations suggest that blockage of recharge and discharge by low-permeability permafrost or cold-based ice causes sinking of brine and consequent freshening of near-surface water in areas of natural discharge. Although recharge of basal meltwater is limited by the requirement that water pressure at the base of the ice sheet not exceed the pressure exerted by the weight of the ice, warm-based ice with basal melting creates a potential for groundwater recharge rates much larger than those of present, ice-free conditions. In the simulations, regional-scale redistribution of recharged water by subsurface flow is minor over the duration of a glacial advance (approximately 10 ka). During glacial retreat, significant upward flow of groundwater may occur below the ice sheet owing to pressure release. If the mechanical loading efficiency of the rocks is high, both subsurface penetration of meltwater during glacial advance and up-flow during glacial retreat are reduced because of loading-induced pressure changes. The maximum rate of groundwater discharge in the simulations occurs at the receding ice margin, and some discharge occurs below incursive postglacial seas. Recharge of basal meltwater could decrease the concentration of dissolved solids significantly below present-day levels at depths of up to several kilometers and may bring oxygenated conditions to an otherwise reducing chemical environment for periods exceeding 10 ka.

Fennoscandian Shield↗

USGS2017

U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units Program—2016–2017 Research Abstracts

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has several strategic goals that focus its efforts on serving the American people. The USGS Ecosystems Mission Area has responsibility for the following objectives under the strategic goal of “Science to Manage and Sustain Resources for Thriving Economies and Healthy Ecosystems”: Understand, model, and predict change in natural systems Conserve and protect wildlife and fish species and their habitats Reduce or eliminate the threat of invasive species and wildlife disease This report provides abstracts of the majority of ongoing research investigations of the USGS Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units program and is intended to complement the 2016 Cooperative Research Units Program Year in Review Circular 1424 ( https://doi.org/10.3133/cir1424 ). The report is organized by the following major science themes that contribute to the objectives of the USGS: Advanced Technologies Climate Science Decision Science Ecological Flows Ecosystem Services Endangered Species Conservation, Recovery, and Proactive Strategies Energy Human Dimensions Invasive Species Landscape Ecology Species of Greatest Conservation Need Species Population, Habitat, and Harvest Management Wildlife Health and Disease

Circular↗

USGS2017

The U.S. Geological Survey Flagstaff Science Campus—Providing expertise on planetary science, ecology, water resources, geologic processes, and human interactions with the Earth

T he U.S. Geological Survey’s Flagstaff Science Campus is focused on interdisciplinary study of the Earth and solar system, and has the scientific expertise to detect early environmental changes and provide strategies to minimize possible adverse effects on humanity. The Flagstaff Science Campus (FSC) is located in Flagstaff, Arizona, which is situated in the northern part of the State, home to a wide variety of landscapes and natural resources, including (1) young volcanoes in the San Francisco Volcanic Field, (2) the seven ecological life zones of the San Francisco Peaks, (3) the extensive geologic record of the Colorado Plateau and Grand Canyon, (4) the Colorado River and its perennial, ephemeral, and intermittent tributaries, and (5) a multitude of canyons, mountains, arroyos, and plains. More than 200 scientists, technicians, and support staff provide research, monitoring, and technical advancements in planetary geology and mapping, biology and ecology, Earth-based geology, hydrology, and changing climate and landscapes. Scientists at the FSC work in collaboration with multiple State, Federal, Tribal, municipal, and academic partners to address regional, national, and global environmental issues, and provide scientific outreach to the general public.

Arizona↗

USGS2021

Landscape evolution in eastern Chuckwalla Valley, Riverside County, California

This study investigates sedimentary and geomorphic processes in eastern Chuckwalla Valley, Riverside County, California, a region of arid, basin-and-range terrain where extensive solar-energy development is planned. The objectives of this study were to (1) measure local weather parameters and use them to model aeolian sediment-transport potential; (2) identify surface sedimentary characteristics in representative localities; and (3) evaluate long-term landscape evolution rates and processes by analyzing stratigraphy in combination with luminescence geochronology. The new stratigraphic and geochronologic data presented in this report demonstrate the varying local significance of aeolian, alluvial fan, lacustrine (playa), and possibly Colorado River influence over a range of time scales. The dominant sand-transport direction in eastern Chuckwalla Valley is toward the northeast, consistent with the recognized regional west-to-east wind direction. However, occasional strong wind events from the north can transport large quantities of sand southward and temporarily reshape local geomorphic features. Influence of a northwest wind direction is also locally dominant around mountain ranges and controls the modern morphology of the Palen dune field. Modeled sand fluxes are on the order of 10 5 kilograms per meter width per year at the site of weather monitoring, 5 kilometers northwest of the Mule Mountains. Aeolian dunes are locally well developed and actively migrating. Their location and activity are determined largely by sediment supply from playa surfaces and ephemeral stream channels, which also control the dunes’ spatial extent and migration potential; stream channels act as both source and sink for aeolian sediment in this environment. Excavations at five sites along a northwest-to-southeast transect reveal that playa deposits formed around 266–226 thousand years ago south of the McCoy Mountains and immediately north of the present location of Interstate 10. The playa material is overlain by late Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial fan deposits. To the southeast (south of Interstate 10, but north of the Mule Mountains), we identified rapid accumulation of alluvial sediment around the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (23–20 thousand years ago), unconformably overlain by a locally varying assemblage of recent aeolian material or Holocene alluvial fan sediment. We have used stratigraphic characteristics and luminescence ages to calculate accumulation rates for sites in eastern Chuckwalla Valley, and thereby to identify spatial variation in landscape stability over decadal and longer time scales. If future solar-energy development plans are to include natural sand-transport corridors, plans would entail retaining the ability for sand to be transported eastward from the ephemeral stream channels and playas that supply sediment to the dunes, sand sheets, and sand ramps of Chuckwalla Valley, and also to allow for southward transport during episodic strong weather events several times per year. The aeolian sediment-transport corridors are dynamic spatially and temporally, reorganizing on the basis of seasonal changes to wind drift potential. Future landscape stability also will be determined by climate-driven changes to vegetation and thereby to aeolian sediment availability. In a warmer, drier climate, aeolian sediment activity is expected to increase, owing to a decrease in stabilizing vegetation cover and more extreme rain that supplies sediment to ephemeral stream channels and playas from which it is remobilized by wind.

California↗

USGS1985

Ground-water quality in the Santa Rita, Buellton, and Los Olivos hydrologic subareas of the Santa Ynez River basin, Santa Barbara County, California

Groundwater quality in the upper Santa Ynez River Valley in Santa Barbara County has degraded due to both natural and anthropogenic causes. The semiarid climate and uneven distribution of rainfall has limited freshwater recharge and caused salt buildup in water supplies. Tertiary rocks supply mineralized water. Agricultural activities (irrigation return flow containing fertilizers and pesticides, cultivation, feedlot waste disposal) are a primary cause of water quality degradation. Urban development, which also causes water quality degradation (introduced contaminants, wastewater disposal, septic system discharge, and land fill disposal of waste), has imposed stricter requirements on water supply quality. A well network was designed to monitor changes in groundwater quality related to anthropogenic activities. Information from this network may aid in efficient management of the groundwater basins as public water supplies, centered around three basic goals. First is to increase freshwater recharge to the basins by conjunctive surface/groundwater use and surface-spreading techniques. Second is to optimize groundwater discharge by efficient timing and spacing of pumping. Third is to control and reduce sources of groundwater contamination by regulating wastewater quality and distribution and, preferably, by exporting wastewaters from the basin. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Limited change in dune mobility in response to a large decrease in wind power in semi-arid northern China since the 1970s

The climatic controls on dune mobility, especially the relative importance of wind strength, remain incompletely understood. This is a key research problem in semi-arid northern China, both for interpreting past dune activity as evidence of paleoclimate and for predicting future environmental change. Potential eolian sand transport, which is approximately proportional to wind power above the threshold for sand entrainment, has decreased across much of northern China since the 1970s. Over the same period, effective moisture (ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration) has not changed significantly. This "natural experiment" provides insight on the relative importance of wind power as a control on dune mobility in three dunefields of northern China (Mu Us, Otindag, and Horqin), although poorly understood and potentially large effects of human land use complicate interpretation. Dune forms in these three regions are consistent with sand transport vectors inferred from weather station data, suggesting that wind directions have remained stable and the stations adequately represent winds that shaped the dunes. The predicted effect of weaker winds since the 1970s would be dune stabilization, with lower sand transport rates allowing vegetation cover to expand. Large portions of all three dunefields remained stabilized by vegetation in the 1970s despite high wind power. Since the 1970s, trends in remotely sensed vegetation greenness and change in mobile dune area inferred from sequential Landsat images do indicate widespread dune stabilization in the eastern Mu Us region. On the other hand, expansion of active dunes took place farther west in the Mu Us dunefield and especially in the central Otindag dunefield, with little overall change in two parts of the Horqin dunes. Better ground truth is needed to validate the remote sensing analyses, but results presented here place limits on the relative importance of wind strength as a control on dune mobility in the study areas. High wind power alone does not completely destabilize these dunes. A large decrease in wind power either has little short-term effect on the dunes, or more likely its effect is sufficiently small that it is obscured by human impacts on dune stability in many parts of the study areas. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2003

The role of climate and vegetation change in shaping past and future fire regimes in the northwestern US and the implications for ecosystem management

Fire is an important part of the disturbance regimes of northwestern US forests and its role in maintaining and altering forest vegetation is evident in the paleoecological record of the region. Long-term reconstructions of Holocene fire regimes, provided by the analysis of charcoal, pollen, and other fire proxies in a network of lake records, indicate that the Pacific Northwest and summer-dry regions of the northern Rocky Mountains experienced their highest fire activity in the early Holocene (11,000-7000 years ago) and during the Medieval Warm Period (ca. 1000 years ago) when drought conditions were more severe than today. In contrast, in summer-wet areas of the northern Rocky Mountains, the period of highest fire activity was registered in the last 7000 years when dry woodland vegetation developed. When synthesized across the entire northwestern US, the paleoecological record reveals that past and present fire regimes are strongly controlled by climate changes occurring on multiple time scales. The scarcity of fires in the 20th century in some northwestern US ecosystems may be the result of successful fire suppression policies, but in wetter forests this absence is consistent with long-term fire regime patterns. In addition, simulations of potential future climate and vegetation indicate that future fire conditions in some parts of the northwestern US could be more severe than they are today. The Holocene record of periods of intensified summer drought is used to assess the nature of future fire-climate-vegetation linkages in the region. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2017

Envisioning, quantifying, and managing thermal regimes on river networks

Water temperatures fluctuate in time and space, creating diverse thermal regimes on river networks. Temporal variability in these thermal landscapes has important biological and ecological consequences because of nonlinearities in physiological reactions; spatial diversity in thermal landscapes provides aquatic organisms with options to maximize growth and survival. However, human activities and climate change threaten to alter the dynamics of riverine thermal regimes. New data and tools can identify particular facets of the thermal landscape that describe ecological and management concerns and that are linked to human actions. The emerging complexity of thermal landscapes demands innovations in communication, opens the door to exciting research opportunities on the human impacts to and biological consequences of thermal variability, suggests improvements in monitoring programs to better capture empirical patterns, provides a framework for suites of actions to restore and protect the natural processes that drive thermal complexity, and indicates opportunities for better managing thermal landscapes.

Washington↗

USGS2010

Quantifying restoration success and recovery in a metal-polluted stream: A 17-year assessment of physicochemical and biological responses

Evaluating the effectiveness of stream restoration is often challenging because of the lack of pre-treatment data, narrow focus on physicochemical measures and insufficient post-restoration monitoring. Even when these fundamental elements are present, quantifying restoration success is difficult because of the challenges associated with distinguishing treatment effects from seasonal variation, episodic events and long-term climatic changes.2. We report results of one of the most comprehensive and continuous records of physical, chemical and biological data available to assess restoration success for a stream ecosystem in North America. Over a 17 year period we measured seasonal and annual changes in metal concentrations, physicochemical characteristics, macroinvertebrate communities, and brown trout Salmo trutta populations in the Arkansas River, a metal-contaminated stream in Colorado, USA.3. Although we observed significant improvements in water quality after treatment, the effectiveness of restoration varied temporally, spatially and among biological response variables. The fastest recovery was observed at stations where restoration eliminated point sources of metal contamination. Recovery of macroinvertebrates was significantly delayed at some stations because of residual sediment contamination and because extreme seasonal and episodic variation in metal concentrations prevented recolonization by sensitive species. Synthesis and applications. Because recovery trajectories after the removal of a stressor are often complex or nonlinear, long-term studies are necessary to assess restoration success within the context of episodic events and changes in regional climate. The observed variation in recovery among chemical and biological endpoints highlights the importance of developing objective criteria to assess restoration success. Although the rapid response of macroinvertebrates to reduced metal concentrations is encouraging, we have previously demonstrated that benthic communities from the Arkansas River remained susceptible to other novel anthropogenic stressors. We suggest that the resistance or resilience of benthic macroinvertebrate communities to novel stressors may be effective indicators of restoration success that can account for the non-additive (e.g. synergistic) nature of compound perturbations. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2010 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2002

Hydrologic variability and the application of Index of Biotic Integrity metrics to wetlands: a Great Lakes evaluation

Interest by land-management and regulatory agencies in using biological indicators to detect wetland degradation, coupled with ongoing use of this approach to assess water quality in streams, led to the desire to develop and evaluate an Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) for wetlands that could be used to categorize the level of degradation. We undertook this challenge with data from coastal wetlands of the Great Lakes, which have been degraded by a variety of human disturbances. We studied six barrier beach wetlands in western Lake Superior, six drowned-river-mouth wetlands along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan, and six open shoreline wetlands in Saginaw Bay of Lake Huron. Plant, fish, and invertebrate communities were sampled in each wetland. The resulting data were assessed in various forms against gradients of human disturbance to identify potential metrics that could be used in IBI development. Our results suggested that the metrics proposed as potential components of an IBI for barrier beach wetlands of Lake Superior held promise. The metrics for Lake Michigan drowned-river-mouth wetlands were inconsistent in identifying gradients of disturbance; those for Lake Huron open embayment wetlands were yet more inconsistent. Despite the potential displayed by the Lake Superior results within the year sampled, we concluded that an IBI for use in Great Lakes wetlands would not be valid unless separate scoring ranges were derived for each of several sequences of water-level histories. Variability in lake levels from year to year can produce variability in data and affect the reproducibility of data collected, primarily due to extreme changes in plant communities and the faunal habitat they provide. Substantially different results could be obtained in the same wetland in different years as a result of the response to lake-level change, with no change in the level of human disturbance. Additional problems included limited numbers of comparable sites, potential lack of undisturbed reference sites, and variable effects of different disturbance types. We also evaluated our conclusions with respect to hydrologic variability and other major natural disturbances affecting wetlands in other regions. We concluded that after segregation of wetland types by geographic, geomorphic, and hydrologic features, a functional IBI may be possible for wetlands with relatively stable hydrology. However, an IBI for wetlands with unpredictable yet recurring influences of climate-induced, long-term high water periods, droughts, or drought-related fires or weather-related catastrophic floods or high winds (hurricanes) would also require differing scales of measurement for years that differ in the length of time since the last major natural disturbance. A site-specific, detailed ecological analysis of biological indicators may indeed be of value in determining the quality or status of wetlands, but we recommend that IBI scores not be used unless the scoring ranges are calibrated for the specific hydrologic history pre-dating any sampling year.

Wetlands↗

USGS2007

Thermal criteria for early life stage development of the winged mapleleaf mussel (Quadrilla fragosa)

The winged mapleleaf mussel [Quadrula fragosa (Conrad)] is a Federal endangered species. Controlled propagation to aid in recovering this species has been delayed because host fishes for its parasitic glochidia (larvae) are unknown. This study identified blue catfish [Ictaluris furcatus (Lesueur)] and confirmed channel catfish [Ictaluris punctatus (Rafinesque)] as suitable hosts. The time required for glochidia to metamorphose and for peak juvenile excystment to begin was water temperature dependent and ranged from 28 to 37 d in a constant thermal regime (19 C); totaled 70 d in a varied thermal regime (12-19 C); and ranged 260 to 262 d in simulated natural thermal regimes (0-21 C). We developed a quantitative model that describes the thermal-temporal relation and used it to empirically estimate the species-specific low-temperature threshold for development of glochidia into juveniles on channel catfish (9.26 C) and the cumulative temperature units of development required to achieve peak excystment of juveniles from blue catfish (383 C???d) and channel catfish (395 C???d). Long-term tests simulated the development of glochidia into juveniles in natural thermal regimes and consistently affirmed the validity of these estimates, as well as provided evidence for a thermal cue (17-20 C) that presumably is needed to trigger peak juvenile excystment. These findings substantiate our model and provide an approach that could be used to determine corresponding thermal criteria for early life development of other mussel species. These data can be used to improve juvenile mussel production in propagation programs designed to help recover imperiled species and may also be useful in detecting temporal climatic changes within a watershed.

American Midland Naturalist↗