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At least 1,207 records · Page 67Linked to original sources

Strong variation in weathering of layered rock maintains hillslope‐scale strength under high precipitation

The evolution of volcanic landscapes and their landslide potential are both dependent upon the weathering of layered volcanic rock sequences. We characterize critical zone structure using shallow seismic V p and V s profiles and vertical exposures of rock across a basaltic climosequence on Kohala peninsula, Hawai’i, and exploit the dramatic gradient in mean annual precipitation (MAP) across the peninsula as a proxy for weathering intensity. Seismic velocity increases rapidly with depth and the velocity–depth gradient is uniform across three sites with 500–600 mm/yr MAP, where the transition to unaltered bedrock occurs at a depth of 4 to 10 m. In contrast, velocity increases with depth less rapidly at wetter sites, but this gradient remains constant across increasing MAP from 1000 to 3000 mm/yr and the transition to unaltered bedrock is near the maximum depth of investigation (15–25 m). In detail, the profiles of seismic velocity and of weathering at wet sites are nowhere monotonic functions of depth. The uniform average velocity gradient and the greater depths of low velocities may be explained by the averaging of velocities over intercalated highly weathered sites with less weathered layers at sites where MAP > 1000 mm/yr. Hence, the main effect of climate is not the progressive deepening of a near‐surface altered layer, but rather the rapid weathering of high permeability zones within rock subjected to precipitation greater than ~1000 mm/yr. Although weathering suggests mechanical weakening, the nearly horizontal orientation of alternating weathered and unweathered horizons with respect to topography also plays a role in the slope stability of these heterogeneous rock masses. We speculate that where steep, rapidly evolving hillslopes exist, the sub‐horizontal orientation of weak/strong horizons allows such sites to remain nearly as strong as their less weathered counterparts at drier sites, as is exemplified by the 50°–60° slopes maintained in the amphitheater canyons on the northwest flank of the island.

Hawai'i↗

A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter, California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes

Small, steep watersheds are prolific sediment sources from which sediment flux is highly sensitive to climatic changes. Storm intensity and frequency are widely expected to increase during the 21st century, and so assessing the response of small, steep watersheds to extreme rainfall is essential to understanding landscape response to climate change. During record winter rainfall in 2016–2017, the San Lorenzo River, coastal California, had nine flow peaks representing 2–10‐year flood magnitudes. By the third flood, fluvial suspended sediment showed a regime shift to greater and coarser sediment supply, coincident with numerous landslides in the watershed. Even with no singular catastrophic flood, these flows exported more than half as much sediment as had a 100‐year flood 35 years earlier, substantially enlarging the nearshore delta. Annual sediment load in 2017 was an order of magnitude greater than during an average‐rainfall year, and 500‐fold greater than in a recent drought. These anomalous sediment inputs are critical to the coastal littoral system, delivering enough sediment, sometimes over only a few days, to maintain beaches for several years. Future projections of megadroughts punctuated by major atmospheric‐river storm activity suggest that interannual sediment‐yield variations will become more extreme than today in the western USA, with potential consequences for coastal management, ecosystems, and water‐storage capacity. The occurrence of two years with major sediment export over the past 35 years that were not associated with extremes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation suggests caution in interpreting climatic signals from marine sedimentary deposits derived from small, steep, coastal watersheds, to avoid misinterpreting the frequencies of those cycles.

California↗

Implications of the fluvial history of the Wacheqsa River for hydrologic engineering and water use at Chavín de Húntar, Peru

Channeling of water through a variety of architectural features represents a significant engineering investment at the first millennium B.C. ceremonial center of Chavín de Huántar in the Peruvian Central Andes. The site contains extensive evidence of the manipulation of water, apparently for diverse purposes. The present configuration of the two local rivers, however, keeps available water approximately 9m below the highest level of water-bearing infrastructure in the site. Geomorphic and archaeological investigation of the fluvial history of the Wacheqsa River has revealed evidence that the Chavín-era configuration of the Wacheqsa River was different. A substantially higher water level, likely the result of a local impoundment of river water caused by a landslide dam, made the provision of water for the hydrologic system within the site a more readily practical possibility. We review what is known of that system and argue that the fluvial history of the Wacheqsa River is critical to understanding this aspect of hydrologic engineering and ritual practice at Chavín. This study demonstrates the relative rapidity and archaeological relevance of landscape change in a dynamic environment.

Chavin de Huantar↗

Fluid pressure responses for a Devil's Slide-like system: problem formulation and simulation

This study employs a hydrogeologic simulation approach to investigate subsurface fluid pressures for a landslide-prone section of the central California, USA, coast known as Devil's Slide. Understanding the relative changes in subsurface fluid pressures is important for systems, such as Devil's Slide, where slope creep can be interrupted by episodic slip events. Surface mapping, exploratory core, tunnel excavation records, and dip meter data were leveraged to conceptualize the parameter space for three-dimensional (3D) Devil's Slide-like simulations. Field observations (i.e. seepage meter, water retention, and infiltration experiments; well records; and piezometric data) and groundwater flow simulation (i.e. one-dimensional vertical, transient, and variably saturated) were used to design the boundary conditions for 3D Devil's Slide-like problems. Twenty-four simulations of steady-state saturated subsurface flow were conducted in a concept-development mode. Recharge, heterogeneity, and anisotropy are shown to increase fluid pressures for failure-prone locations by up to 18.1, 4.5, and 1.8% respectively. Previous estimates of slope stability, driven by simple water balances, are significantly improved upon with the fluid pressures reported here. The results, for a Devil's Slide-like system, provide a foundation for future investigations

California↗

Runoff-generated debris flows: observations and modeling of surge initiation, magnitude, and frequency

Runoff during intense rainstorms plays a major role in generating debris flows in many alpine areas and burned steeplands. Yet compared to debris flow initiation from shallow landslides, the mechanics by which runoff generates a debris flow are less understood. To better understand debris flow initiation by surface water runoff, we monitored flow stage and rainfall associated with debris flows in the headwaters of two small catchments: a bedrock-dominated alpine basin in central Colorado (0.06 km 2 ) and a recently burned area in southern California (0.01 km 2 ). We also obtained video footage of debris flow initiation and flow dynamics from three cameras at the Colorado site. Stage observations at both sites display distinct patterns in debris flow surge characteristics relative to rainfall intensity (I). We observe small, quasiperiodic surges at low I; large, quasiperiodic surges at intermediate I; and a single large surge followed by small-amplitude fluctuations about a more steady high flow at high I. Video observations of surge formation lead us to the hypothesis that these flow patterns are controlled by upstream variations in channel slope, in which low-gradient sections act as “sediment capacitors,” temporarily storing incoming bed load transported by water flow and periodically releasing the accumulated sediment as a debris flow surge. To explore this hypothesis, we develop a simple one-dimensional morphodynamic model of a sediment capacitor that consists of a system of coupled equations for water flow, bed load transport, slope stability, and mass flow. This model reproduces the essential patterns in surge magnitude and frequency with rainfall intensity observed at the two field sites and provides a new framework for predicting the runoff threshold for debris flow initiation in a burned or alpine setting.

California;Colorado↗

Revisiting submarine mass movements along the U.S. Atlantic Continental Margin: Implications for tsunami hazards

Interest in the generation of tsunamis by submarine mass movements has warranted a reassessment of their distribution and the nature of submarine landslides offshore of the eastern U.S. The recent acquisition and analysis of multibeam bathymetric data over most of this continental slope and rise provides clearer view into the extent and style of mass movements on this margin. Debris flows appear to be the dominant type of mass movement, although some translational slides have also been identified. Areas affected by mass movements range in size from less than 9 km2 to greater than 15,200 km2 and reach measured thicknesses of up to 70 m. Failures are seen to originate on either the open-slope or in submarine canyons. Slope-sourced failures are larger than canyonsourced failures, suggesting they have a higher potential for tsunami generation although the volume of material displaced during individual failure events still needs to be refined. The slope-sourced failures are most common offshore of the northern, glaciated part of the coast, but others are found downslope of shelf-edge deltas and near salt diapirs, suggesting that several geological conditions control their distribution.

Atlantic Ocean↗

Off-road vehicular destabilization of hill slopes: the major contributing factor to destructive debris flows in Ogden, Utah, 1979

The Wasatch Mountains in northern Utah are a north-south trending range with steep slopes caused by faulting less than 10,000 years ago. Through the natural processes of rain, frost-wedging, gravity, and earthquakes these slopes are slowly being eroded. A geologic history of instability is recorded at the base of the range in the form of landslide deposits, debris flows, and rock-fall deposits.

Utah↗

Canada Basin

Perennial sea-ice cover over much of Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean has hampered geoscientific studies, but concerted efforts over the past decade– particularly with the use of two ice-breakers working collaboratively – has led to new seismic and sample acquisitions. These studies have revealed extensive non-oceanic basement beneath Canada Basin that coincides with proof of a central spreading axis and limited oceanic crust. Additionally, seismic reflection studies have shown its sedimentologic history and stratigraphic development. High resolution subbottom and multibeam detail have revealed its more recent geologic past, including the extent of ice margins during the Pleistocene and the role of submarine landslides and ocean currents within the basin. Despite this new information, there are still significant challenges in understanding the basin. These challenges result from the fact that the basin did not form by a simple rift/extension scenario, but rather more likely through a complexity of events that included variably oriented extension, trans-tension and transform tectonics. Additionally, emplacement of the high arctic magnetic domain (Alpha Ridge and Mendeleev Rise) masks underlying tectonic structures, and lack of age control inhibits correlation with global events.

Canada Basin↗

Mount St. Helens, Washington, USA

May 18, 1980. Sunrise and a crystal-clear morning. Mount St. Helens was a beautiful, peaceful, snow-capped mountain surrounded by pristine forests and lakes(Fig. 15.1). Yes, it was known to be spitting ash and shaking, but it was still fundamentally the same Mount St. Helens that had for decades been a favorite camping and fishing destination of local residents. At 8:32 a.m. Mount St. Helens turned ugly, unleashing a mind-boggling landslide that left a huge crater where the peak had been and a thick jumble of rock with an average thickness of 150-feet (45.7 m) filling the lush valley that once led to much-beloved Spirit Lake.

Washington↗

Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity

During 11 sequences of earthquakes that in retrospect can be classed as foreshocks, the accelerating rate at which seismic moment is released follows, at least in part, a simple equation. This equation (1) is {Mathematical expression},where {Mathematical expression} is the cumulative sum until time, t, of the square roots of seismic moments of individual foreshocks computed from reported magnitudes;C and n are constants; and tfis a limiting time at which the rate of seismic moment accumulation becomes infinite. The possible time of a major foreshock or main shock, tf,is found by the best fit of equation (1), or its integral, to step-like plots of {Mathematical expression} versus time using successive estimates of tfin linearized regressions until the maximum coefficient of determination, r2,is obtained. Analyzed examples include sequences preceding earthquakes at Cremasta, Greece, 2/5/66; Haicheng, China 2/4/75; Oaxaca, Mexico, 11/29/78; Petatlan, Mexico, 3/14/79; and Central Chile, 3/3/85. In 29 estimates of main-shock time, made as the sequences developed, the errors in 20 were less than one-half and in 9 less than one tenth the time remaining between the time of the last data used and the main shock. Some precursory sequences, or parts of them, yield no solution. Two sequences appear to include in their first parts the aftershocks of a previous event; plots using the integral of equation (1) show that the sequences are easily separable into aftershock and foreshock segments. Synthetic seismic sequences of shocks at equal time intervals were constructed to follow equation (1), using four values of n. In each series the resulting distributions of magnitudes closely follow the linear Gutenberg-Richter relation log N=a-bM, and the product n times b for each series is the same constant. In various forms and for decades, equation (1) has been used successfully to predict failure times of stressed metals and ceramics, landslides in soil and rock slopes, and volcanic eruptions. Results of more recent experiments and theoretical studies on crack propagation, fault mechanics, and acoustic emission can be closely reproduced by equation (1). Rate-process theory and continuum damage mechanics offer leads toward understanding the physical processes. ?? 1989 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗

Differential equations governing slip-induced pore-pressure fluctuations in a water-saturated granular medium

Macroscopic frictional slip in water-saturated granular media occurs commonly during landsliding, surface faulting, and intense bedload transport. A mathematical model of dynamic pore-pressure fluctuations that accompany and influence such sliding is derived here by both inductive and deductive methods. The inductive derivation shows how the governing differential equations represent the physics of the steadily sliding array of cylindrical fiberglass rods investigated experimentally by Iverson and LaHusen (1989). The deductive derivation shows how the same equations result from a novel application of Biot's (1956) dynamic mixture theory to macroscopic deformation. The model consists of two linear differential equations and five initial and boundary conditions that govern solid displacements and pore-water pressures. Solid displacements and water pressures are strongly coupled, in part through a boundary condition that ensures mass conservation during irreversible pore deformation that occurs along the bumpy slip surface. Feedback between this deformation and the pore-pressure field may yield complex system responses. The dual derivations of the model help explicate key assumptions. For example, the model requires that the dimensionless parameter B, defined here through normalization of Biot's equations, is much larger than one. This indicates that solid-fluid coupling forces are dominated by viscous rather than inertial effects. A tabulation of physical and kinematic variables for the rod-array experiments of Iverson and LaHusen and for various geologic phenomena shows that the model assumptions commonly are satisfied. A subsequent paper will describe model tests against experimental data. ?? 1993 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Mathematical Geology↗

The 1963–65 eruption of Irazú volcano, Costa Rica (the period of March 1963 to October 1964)

The 1963–65 eruption of Irazú, like all others of this volcano during the historic period, produced only ash and other fragmental ejecta without lava. The initial outbreak on March 13, 1963 started with a series of great explosions that hurled out much ash, blocks, and bombs, but the activity soon settled down to alternating periods of explosive cruptions and quiet emission of steam. Ash was deposited mostly along a zone that extended westward from the summit to and beyond the city of San Jose, 24 km away. The prolonged ashfall severely damaged dairy, vegetable, and coffee farms, and for a while made daily life in the affected cities extremely difficult. Accelerated runoff of rainwater from the ash-covered slopes of the volcano caused destructive floods, mudflows, and landslides. The climax of the cruption probably occurred during December 1963 and January 1964, when ash and incandescent scoria were erupted voluminously and the magma rose to within 100 meters of the lip of the vent. Precise levelling along the highway to the summit in May 1964 by the Geographic Institute revealed the upper part of the volcano upheaved as much as 11 cm above levels determined in 1949. A repetition of the levelling in September 1964 showed a subsidence to approximately the 1949 configuration, indicating a distinct reduction of pressure in the magma chamber. Substantial amounts of pulverized wallrock were present in the ash along with fragments of scoria and pumice. Progressive caving of the vent walls, which enlarged the diameter of the vent from 200 meters to 525 meters, kept dropping wallrock down onto the exploding magma, and at times stopped the eruption for a day or two by plugging the vent. The scoriaceous and pumiceous bombs were porphyritic two-pyroxene olivine basaltic andesite, and their composition remained remarkably constant throughout the eruption. The ash section was about 2 meters thick, 800 meters downwind from the vent in June 1964. In the section, deposits of the rainy season could be distinguished by their well developed stratification from those of the dry season. A zone containing three persistent pumice horizons represents the climactic period of December 1963 to January 1964. The cloudburst of December 10, 1963 is recorded by a highly rilled surface, and the strong winds of the dry season of 1964 are indicated by a rippled lag deposit.

Bulletin Volcanologique↗

Tsunami probability in the Caribbean Region

We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ???500-year empirical record compiled by O'Loughlin and Lander (2003) was used to calculate an empirical tsunami probability map, the first of three constructed for this study. However, it is unclear whether the 500-year record is complete, so we conducted a seismic moment-balance exercise using a finite-element model of the Caribbean-North American plate boundaries and the earthquake catalog, and found that moment could be balanced if the seismic coupling coefficient is c = 0.32. Modeled moment release was therefore used to generate synthetic earthquake sequences to calculate 50 tsunami runup scenarios for 500-year periods. We made a second probability map from numerically-calculated runup rates in each cell. Differences between the first two probability maps based on empirical and numerical-modeled rates suggest that each captured different aspects of tsunami generation; the empirical model may be deficient in primary plate-boundary events, whereas numerical model rates lack backarc fault and landslide sources. We thus prepared a third probability map using Bayesian likelihood functions derived from the empirical and numerical rate models and their attendant uncertainty to weight a range of rates at each 20 km by 20 km coastal cell. Our best-estimate map gives a range of 30-year runup probability from 0 - 30% regionally. ?? irkhaueser 2008.

Conference Paper↗

Tsunami forecast by joint inversion of real-time tsunami waveforms and seismic of GPS data: application to the Tohoku 2011 tsunami

Correctly characterizing tsunami source generation is the most critical component of modern tsunami forecasting. Although difficult to quantify directly, a tsunami source can be modeled via different methods using a variety of measurements from deep-ocean tsunameters, seismometers, GPS, and other advanced instruments, some of which in or near real time. Here we assess the performance of different source models for the destructive 11 March 2011 Japan tsunami using model–data comparison for the generation, propagation, and inundation in the near field of Japan. This comparative study of tsunami source models addresses the advantages and limitations of different real-time measurements with potential use in early tsunami warning in the near and far field. The study highlights the critical role of deep-ocean tsunami measurements and rapid validation of the approximate tsunami source for high-quality forecasting. We show that these tsunami measurements are compatible with other real-time geodetic data, and may provide more insightful understanding of tsunami generation from earthquakes, as well as from nonseismic processes such as submarine landslide failures.

Honshu↗

Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume I”

Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe important case studies of recent and historical events. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗

Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume II”

Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗

Timescales of cumulate mobilization and mixing for the 1868 A.D. eruption of Mauna Loa, Island of Hawai‘i

The deadly 1868 A.D. eruption of Mauna Loa’s lower Southwest Rift Zone (Island of Hawai‘i) included a M7.9 earthquake and associated tsunami and landslides, demonstrating the severe hazards posed by Earth’s largest active subaerial volcano. To better understand the relationship between intense seismic activity, dike emplacement, magma storage, transport histories, and mobilization of olivine cumulates at Mauna Loa, we examine compositional zoning of olivine in the 1868 lava flows. Samples range from basalt (< 10% olivine) to picrite (30–40% olivine). The olivine cargo is heterogeneous (Fo 78.2–89.2 ; forsterite = [Mg/(Mg + Fe) × 100]) but dominated by ~ Fo 89 cores that lie above the Fe-Mg equilibrium field of host glasses. Crystal rims < Fo 80 are due to post-eruptive modification in slow cooling lava flows. Minor element compositions fall within the range of other Mauna Loa olivine erupted in the past 200 years. Olivine crystals exhibit both normal and complex Fo zoning patterns that yield timescales of diffusive re-equilibration that range from 3 to 258 days, with 72% of crystals recording 71 days or less. These timescales correspond to magmatic priming of the summit reservoir system ~ 2 months prior to the eruption and the M7.9 earthquake likely facilitated the transport of the crystal-rich summit-derived magmas downrift shortly prior to eruption. If the recently proposed faster Fe-Mg diffusion coefficient is used, timescales instead range from < 1 day to 25 days, with most recording 1 week or less. In this scenario, most of the olivine zoning would have to have been generated after the M7.9 earthquake perturbed the system.

Hawaii↗

Subsidence of ash-flow calderas: Relation to caldera size and magma-chamber geometry

Diverse subsidence geometries and collapse processes for ash-flow calderas are inferred to reflect varying sizes, roof geometries, and depths of the source magma chambers, in combination with prior volcanic and regional tectonic influences. Based largely on a review of features at eroded pre-Quaternary calderas, a continuum of geometries and subsidence styles is inferred to exist, in both island-arc and continental settings, between small funnel calderas and larger plate (piston) subsidences bounded by arcuate faults. Within most ring-fault calderas, the subsided block is variably disrupted, due to differential movement during ash-flow eruptions and postcollapse magmatism, but highly chaotic piecemeal subsidence appears to be uncommon for large-diameter calderas. Small-scale downsag structures and accompanying extensional fractures develop along margins of most calderas during early stages of subsidence, but downsag is dominant only at calderas that have not subsided deeply. Calderas that are loci for multicyclic ash-flow eruption and subsidence cycles have the most complex internal structures. Large calderas have flared inner topographic walls due to landsliding of unstable slopes, and the resulting slide debris can constitute large proportions of caldera fill. Because the slide debris is concentrated near caldera walls, models from geophysical data can suggest a funnel geometry, even for large plate-subsidence calderas bounded by ring faults. Simple geometric models indicate that many large calderas have subsided 3-5 km, greater than the depth of most naturally exposed sections of intracaldera deposits. Many ring-fault platesubsidence calderas and intrusive ring complexes have been recognized in the western U.S., Japan, and elsewhere, but no well-documented examples of exposed eroded calderas have large-scale funnel geometry or chaotically disrupted caldera floors. Reported ignimbrite "shields" in the central Andes, where large-volume ash-flows are inferred to have erupted without caldera collapse, seem alternatively interpretable as more conventional calderas that were filled to overflow by younger lavas and tuffs. Some exposed subcaldera intrusions provide insights concerning subsidence processes, but such intrusions may continue to evolve in volume, roof geometry, depth, and composition after formation of associated calderas.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗