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Effects of groundwater withdrawals for water bottling and municipal use, Wards Brook Valley, Maine and New Hampshire

Hydrologic models for the Wards Brook valley near Fryeburg, Maine were developed for historical (2016 – 2021) and hypothetical future conditions (2046 – 2065 and 2080 – 2099) to understand the effects of groundwater withdrawals for bottled water and municipal use on hydrologic conditions (stream base flows and groundwater levels). Analyses showed that the simulated base flows in Wards Brook were reduced because of pumping for both municipal water supplies and for water bottling, and about half of the total pumping impact on the base flows in Wards Brook was from the bottled water extraction. Simulated flows were greater than the minimum recommended streamflow of 2,180 cubic meters per day (400 gallons per minute) throughout the historical period. Simulated groundwater levels at two of three nearby ponds (Round Pond and Davis Pond) were minimally affected by pumping conditions, and effects were primarily from the municipal well closest to the ponds. Several estimates of future projected recharge were used to understand the potential effects of groundwater withdrawals on hydrologic conditions under multiple hypothetical climate conditions. Annual projected recharge rates in the mid- and late-21st century from two climate scenarios (stabilized greenhouse-gas emissions and high greenhouse-gas emissions) were similar to rates for 2016 – 2021. However, monthly recharge patterns for the future periods shifted toward more recharge in the winter months (December, January, and February) and less recharge in April, May, and October relative to 2016 – 2021. The lowest mean monthly base flows from the future emission scenarios all remain larger than the minimum recommended streamflow and indicate no long-term declines in flow relative to historical conditions. However, simulated base flows during hypothetical 3-year drought scenarios declined below minimum recommended streamflow during the summer months in the stabilized- and high-emission scenarios in the mid-21st century. Although water is generally plentiful in the Wards Brook valley, reduced pumping may be needed to maintain streamflows in Wards Brook under future climate conditions similar to modeled drought scenarios.

EarthArXiv

Remote sensing enables basin-scale inventories of coal mine methane

Underground coal mines are important global sources of methane, but emission estimates are uncertain. We show that emission estimates for individual mines from aircraft remote-sensing surveys in the United States agree within 40% with direct measurements used for national emission reporting (IPCC Tier 3 estimate). Such direct measurements are unavailable in most countries, which rely on estimated emission factors (EFs) applied to coal-production rates. We find that EFs from IPCC Tier 1 and the Model for Calculating Coal Mine Methane (MC2M) methods overestimate U.S. emissions 3-fold due to incorrect dependence on mine depth. An IPCC Tier 2 method using measured basin-specific mine gas content agrees with direct emission measurements but does not account for gob well emissions and requires gas content data that are generally unavailable. We show that aircraft remote sensing for a small sample of mines can successfully estimate basin-specific EFs for ventilation shafts and gob wells, enabling estimates of basin- and national-scale emissions. We discuss how the method can be applied with satellite remote sensing to quantify coal emissions worldwide.

Alabama, Colorado, Kentucky, New Mexico, Ohio, Pen

Groundwater, surface-water, and water-chemistry data, Black Mesa area, northeastern Arizona—2019–2021

The Navajo (N) aquifer is an extensive aquifer and the primary source of groundwater in the 5,400-square-mile Black Mesa area in northeastern Arizona. Water availability is an important issue in the Black Mesa area because of the arid climate, past industrial water use, and continued water requirements for municipal use by a growing population. Precipitation in the area typically ranges from less than 6 to more than 16 inches per year, depending on location. The U.S. Geological Survey water-monitoring program in the Black Mesa area began in 1971 and provides information about the long-term effects of groundwater withdrawals from the N aquifer for industrial and municipal uses. This report presents the results of data collected as part of the monitoring program in the Black Mesa area from calendar years 2020–2021 and, additionally, uses streamflow statistics from November and December 2019. The monitoring program includes measurements of (1) groundwater withdrawals (pumping), (2) groundwater levels, (3) spring discharge, (4) surface-water discharge, and (5) groundwater chemistry. In calendar year 2020, total groundwater withdrawals were estimated to be 2,680 acre-feet (acre-ft), and, in 2021, total withdrawals were estimated to be 2,570 acre-ft. Total withdrawals during 2021 were about 65 percent less than total withdrawals in 2005 because the Peabody Western Coal Company discontinued its use of water to transport coal in a coal slurry pipeline after 2005 and ceased mining operations in 2019. Owing to Navajo Nation and Hopi Reservation access restrictions during the Coronavirus pandemic, water levels were not collected from municipal wells in 2020 or 2021. Water levels measured in 2021 from wells completed in the unconfined areas of the N aquifer within the Black Mesa area showed a decline in 7 of 13 wells when compared with water levels from the prestress period (prior to 1965). The changes in water levels across all 13 wells ranged from +8.4 feet (ft) to −42.4 ft, and the median change was −0.4 ft. Water levels also showed decline in 11 of 12 wells measured in the confined area of the aquifer when compared to the prestress period. The median change for the confined area of the aquifer was −25.9 ft, with changes across all 12 wells ranging from +17.3 ft to −133.7 ft. Spring flow was measured at four springs between 2020 and 2021. Flow fluctuated during the period of record for Burro Spring and Pasture Canyon Spring, but a decreasing trend was statistically significant (p<0.05) at Moenkopi School Spring and Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso, Arizona. Discharge at Burro Spring has remained relatively constant since it was first measured in the 1980s, and discharge at Pasture Canyon Spring has fluctuated for the period of record. Continuous records of surface-water discharge in the Black Mesa area were collected from streamflow-gaging stations at the following sites: Moenkopi Wash at Moenkopi 09401260 (1976–2021), Dinnebito Wash near Sand Springs 09401110 (1993–2020), Polacca Wash near Second Mesa 09400568 (1994–2020), and Pasture Canyon Springs 09401265 (2004–2021). Median winter flows (November through February) of each winter were used as an estimate of the amount of groundwater discharge at the above-named sites. For the period of record, the median winter flows have generally remained constant at Polacca Wash and Pasture Canyon Springs, whereas a decreasing trend was observed at Moenkopi Wash and Dinnebito Wash. In 2020 and 2021, water samples were collected from a total of four springs in the Black Mesa area and analyzed for selected chemical constituents. Results from the four springs were compared with previous analyses from the same springs. Dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate concentrations increased at Moenkopi School Spring during the more than 30 years of record at that site. Concentrations of dissolved solids and sulfate at Pasture Canyon Spring have not varied significantly (p>0.05) since the early 1980s, and there is no increasing or decreasing trend in those data. However, concentrations of chloride from Pasture Canyon Spring show a diminishing trend. Concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate at Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso have varied for the period of record, but there is no statistical trend in the data. Concentrations of dissolved solids at Burro Spring have varied for the period of record, but there is no statistical trend in the data. However, concentrations of chloride and sulfate from Burro Spring show a trend towards lower concentrations.

Arizona

Broadband stochastic simulation of earthquake ground motions with multiple strong phases with an application to the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake

Stochastic ground motion simulation models are often less accurate at lower frequencies than at higher frequencies when fitting recorded data unless supplemented by a deterministic forward directivity velocity pulse model. Moreover, time-modulated stochastic models, which adjust ground motion amplitudes over time, typically use functions that fail to capture multiple strong-motion phases. The February 2023 Turkey (Türkiye) earthquake exhibited diverse recordings, including near-fault and far-field motions with pulse-like and non-pulse-like characteristics, along with single and multiple strong-motion phases. To better represent such a diverse set of recordings, this study enhances a fully non-stationary site-based stochastic model without combining it with a deterministic model. Improvements include a new band-pass filter with upper- and lower-frequency limits, which refines the representation of the low-frequency content. Moreover, a time-modulating function that can represent energy arrival in multiple strong phases is introduced. The reference model’s parameters are identified by fitting to the energy content, zero-level crossings, and cumulative counts of positive-minima and negative-maxima of a target accelerogram. This fitting procedure is modified to address the increased number of parameters. These improvements broaden the reference model’s applicability while preserving its simplicity, a key aspect appealing to engineering practitioners. The improved model’s applicability is demonstrated by simulating a dataset from the February 2023 Türkiye earthquake, and the accuracy is tested using a pulse-like Next Generation Attenuation Relationships for Western United States dataset. Validations are performed based on total energy, zero-level crossings, Fourier amplitude spectrum, elastic response spectra, and peak ground motion parameters. Validations are performed schematically in the time and frequency domains and quantitatively using goodness-of-fit scores, various validation-metrics errors, and inter-period correlations. Overall, the improved stochastic model can effectively simulate a set of diverse ground motion recordings, including near-fault pulse-like records, records with multiple strong phases, and far-field motions across a broad frequency range.

Kahramanmaraş

Groundwater-level elevations in the bedrock aquifers of the Denver Basin aquifer system, Elbert County, Colorado, 2015–23

Water users in Elbert County, Colorado, rely on groundwater from bedrock aquifers in the Denver Basin aquifer system (upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers) for approximately half of their water uses. Withdrawals from the bedrocks aquifers have increased to meet the water use needs of expanding regional population growth and development. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Elbert County Board of County Commissioners, began a study in 2015 to monitor groundwater levels within Elbert County. The primary purpose of this report is to present a summary of groundwater levels measured during the study period (2015–23) and present results from statistical analyses of changes in groundwater-level elevations through time. Discrete groundwater levels were measured at 36 wells within Elbert County. Seven of those wells contained equipment to make and record continuous groundwater-level measurements at hourly intervals. All aquifers, except the lower Dawson aquifer, had only declining groundwater-level elevations in discrete measurements for wells with statistically significant trends. Of the eight statistically significant trends in the lower Dawson aquifer, two wells indicated increasing groundwater-level elevation from discrete measurements. The groundwater-level elevation trend medians in the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers were −0.23, −0.66, −0.64, −0.39, and −0.63 feet per year, respectively, for discrete groundwater-level elevation measurements. Trends in continuous groundwater-level elevations were in agreement with statistically significant trends in discrete groundwater-level elevations for all wells. The groundwater-level elevation trend medians in this study, compared to the overall trends in a 2015−2018 study, both indicated declining groundwater-level elevations except in the upper Dawson aquifer, where the trend direction was opposite, a positive trend from 2015 to 2018 and a negative trend (declining groundwater elevations) from 2015 to 2023. The change in trends within the upper Dawson aquifer may be affected by differences in the study period and the trend analysis applied. Trends during the 2015–23 study period were compared to departures from the median 2015 groundwater-level elevation for each site in each aquifer. In general, the departures from the 2015 median supported trends observed at each site and correlated spatially with greater departures near the western border of Elbert County. Additionally, 30-year precipitation data showing wet and dry periods were overlaid with the departure from the 2015 median to assess groundwater-level patterns in wells in the five aquifers. Departures from the 2015 median groundwater-level elevations appeared greatest during the dry period between 2020 and 2023. Potentiometric-surface maps of the upper and lower Dawson aquifers created from static April 2023 groundwater elevations indicated groundwater-flow direction is generally from the south to the north. Results of this study could be used to guide additional groundwater monitoring in Elbert County and could aid in long-term planning of water resources.

Colorado

Distributed faulting of the northern West Napa Fault Zone in Napa Valley, California

Mapped surface ruptures from the 24 August 2014 M w 6.0 South Napa earthquake in the Napa Valley, California, show a 2‐km‐wide zone of distributed faulting in the southern and central West Napa fault zone (WNFZ). In the northern WNFZ at Hendry Winery (HW), however, the mapped 2014 surface ruptures encompass an ∼100‐m‐wide zone, implying significant narrowing of the near‐surface fault zone to the north. We present a tomographic shear‐wave velocity ( ⁠⁠ V S ) model and guided‐wave data that indicate the northern WNFZ is at least 400‐m wide, with multiple near‐surface fault traces. Our V S model shows that the 2014 surface ruptures are underlain by discrete low‐velocity zones (LVZs), and coincident guided‐wave data show that the LVZs carry fault‐zone guided waves. If nearby (<500 m) mapped faults to the east of HW are part of the WNFZ, the entire WNFZ is more than 1 km wide in the northern Napa Valley. WNFZ guided waves travel up to 38% slower than S body waves, and low‐strain guided‐wave shaking is up to five times stronger than the associated body‐wave shaking. Our data suggest that guided waves, traveling along distributed faults, may result in an increased shaking hazard over a 1‐km‐wide area of the northern Napa Valley during future significant earthquakes. In places, the 2014 surface ruptures were difficult to find one year after the earthquake, and paleoseismic trenching showed only weak evidence for faulting, which may not have been identified in trenches if the locations of the 2014 surface ruptures had not been previously mapped ( Prentice et al. , 2015 ). Guided‐wave and V S tomography data, however, show strong evidence for faulting beneath the 2014 surface ruptures and at locations to the east. Although paleoseismic trenching is the gold standard for identifying near‐surface faulting, methods such as peak ground velocities of guided waves may better identify immature near‐surface fault traces.

California

Color-Shaded Relief Bathymetry of Lake Chelan, Washington

In 2023, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed a 3-week field operation in Lake Chelan, Washington, the third deepest lake in the conterminous United States, to acquire sediment cores, high-resolution bathymetry data, and chirp sub-bottom profiles. The high-resolution bathymetry displayed in this map publication was collected using a Norbit Winghead i67-curved array multibeam system; raw data were cleaned and gridded (3 by 3 meters [m]) in the Teledyne CARIS software. In some locations where the slopes of Lake Chelan are near-vertical, multibeam returns were sparse, resulting in artifacts resembling holes that appear as grey dots within the color-shaded bathymetric relief. Although the 2023 bathymetric mapping of Lake Chelan resulted in similar morphometric characteristics to previous hydrographic campaigns (table 1; Kendra and Singleton, 1987; Pelletier and others, 1989), these new data provide a much more detailed understanding of the two physiographic basins that comprise Lake Chelan: the deeper (as deep as 445.8 m [fig. 1]; previously reported as 453 m) and narrower (1–2 kilometers [km] wide) Lucerne Basin to the north, and the shallower (as deep as 127.8 m [fig. 1]), and wider (2–3 km wide) Wapato Basin to the south. With this detailed imaging of Lake Chelan, we find pervasive morphological evidence of slope failure and mass-transport deposits (MTDs) in at least 89 locations within the lake and 63 subaqueous deltas (fig. 2). The deeper Lucerne Basin is dominated by steep slopes and numerous subaqueous deltas fed by steep fluvial catchments, whereas the Wapato Basin contains numerous landslide scarps, scars, and debris aprons along the more gently sloping lake margins, and abundant relict kettle structures from the Pleistocene deglaciation. Lake Chelan’s geomorphic, geophysical, and sediment data contain important records of glacial retreat and advance, regional volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes that generate ground motions severe enough to induce landslides recorded in the sediment as MTDs. The epicenter of the 1872 Washington State Earthquake (M 6.5–7.2; Bakun and others, 2002; Brocher and others, 2017; Sherrod and others, 2021) is along the Spencer Canyon Fault, near the southern end of Lake Chelan. Shaking from this earthquake was strong enough to affect local aquifers, induce liquefaction of unconsolidated sediments, produce large seiches (Brocher and others, 2018), and likely cause landslides within Lake Chelan.

Washington

Scientific opportunities in the National Landscape Conservation System

The National Landscape Conservation System consists of unique and beautiful places across America’s landscapes where identified resources and values are protected and science is highlighted. The mission of the National Landscape Conservation System (NLCS), which is managed by the Bureau of Land Management and is often referred to as the agency’s National Conservation Lands, is to conserve, protect, and restore nationally significant landscapes for their cultural, ecological, and scientific values. This clear inclusion of science in the NLCS mission sets the stage for individual units to serve as places of learning, teaching, discovery, and innovation. Science is an integral part of managing the National Conservation Lands, and science conducted within and across the more than 900 units that make up the NLCS can inform and influence conservation and public land management well beyond its boundaries. Here, we highlight seven core aspects of National Conservation Lands that present valuable science opportunities: (1) the scientific values for which individual units are designated; (2) the many other resources, objects, and values within units; (3) the value of units as “control” sites for understanding the effects of activities such as mineral extraction that commonly occur elsewhere on multiple-use public lands but are often prohibited within National Conservation Lands; (4) the value of units for studying the effects of activities such as recreation that regularly occur and may be intensified on National Conservation Lands; (5) the high visibility of units, which draws strong interest and engagement from scientists, partners, and the public; (6) the functioning of the units as a network managed for a common purpose, which provides an opportunity to explore cross-cutting science questions across widely varying contexts and geographies; and (7) the opportunities units provide to promote and apply Indigenous Knowledge to scientific research to manage natural and cultural resources. Because of all of these characteristics, National Conservation Lands can serve as hubs for basic and applied science that can inform management of all public lands and resources into the future. We highlight these science opportunities through examples from existing units and suggest two actions that could help further science activities and impact on National Conservation Lands.

Parks Stewardship Forum

Stream sediment sources in Medicine Creek, northern Missouri and southern Iowa

This report presents the results of a cooperative study by the U.S. Geological Survey and Missouri Department of Natural Resources to quantify sediment transport source contributions in the Medicine Creek drainage basin. Understanding relative source contributions provides valuable information for selecting the conservation practices that may be most effective in reducing sediment and sediment-associated nutrient transport in the Medicine Creek drainage basin and similar areas of the Lower Grand River drainage basin. Sediment samples were collected from potential contributing areas (source samples) and from fluvial-transported samples (target samples). Source sample types included streambanks, row crop fields, and a combined pastures and forests category. Samples were analyzed for particle size and quantity of carbon, nitrogen, stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen, and 49 mineral elements as potential tracers. Results for the carbon stable isotope ratio of carbon-13/carbon-12 (δ 13 C) and concentrations of total carbon, total nitrogen, calcium, potassium, and copper were selected by discriminant function analysis as the best combination of multiple tracers to differentiate each source type. The discriminant function analysis poorly differentiated pastures and forests, so these source types were combined. The sources defined by the discriminant function analysis were then used in an unmixing model to apportion sources for each target sample. In the study area, transported sediment was predominantly bank sediment, with an overall average of 86.9 percent of suspended-sediment samples and depositional streambed samples attributed to bank material. Suspended-sediment samples from the mainstem of Medicine Creek were dominated by bank sediments (average of 95.8 percent), and depositional streambed samples from throughout the drainage basin had more variable source contributions with an average of 71.1 percent attributed to bank material. The relative importance of upland sources (row crop fields and the combined pastures and forests category) varied seasonally and with streamflow but was not related to land use or drainage basin size. Relative contributions from upland sources were greater in the summer through winter rather than spring and during lower streamflow, though this may be driven by the seasonality of streamflow. These results indicate management practices that reduce bank erosion could be effective strategies for managing the dominant source of sediment and sediment-associated phosphorus.

Iowa, Missouri

ShakeAlert® version 3: Expected performance in large earthquakes

The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system partners along with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) licensed operators deliver EEW alerts to the public and trigger automated systems when a significant earthquake is expected to impact California, Oregon, or Washington. ShakeAlert’s primary goal is to provide usable warning times before the arrival of damaging shaking. EEW is most likely to achieve this goal in large‐magnitude earthquakes. In recent years, ShakeAlert has gone through a series of upgrades to its underlying scientific algorithms aimed at improved performance during large earthquakes. Version 3 of this software recently went live in the production system and includes improvements to all algorithms. The main seismic algorithms that detect an earthquake and characterize its location, magnitude, and fault rupture orientation are faster than older versions. Other key changes include: using real‐time geodetic data to characterize the magnitude growth in large earthquakes; the introduction of an alert pause procedure to compromise between speed near the epicenter and improved accuracy at larger distances; and the inclusion of a nonergodic site‐response model in the ground‐motion predictions. ShakeAlert has achieved its primary goal of usable warning times before strong shaking at some locations in real‐time operations in recent M 6 earthquakes. Using offline tests, we demonstrate usable warning times are possible for many sites with peak shaking values of modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) 7–8 in M 7+ earthquakes and also for many MMI 8–9 sites in M 8+ earthquakes. ShakeAlert partners use a variety of MMI and magnitude thresholds in deciding when to alert their users within bounds set by the USGS. Our study shows that there is room to raise the magnitude thresholds up to about M 5.5 without adversely affecting performance in large earthquakes. The ground‐motion criteria are more complex owing to a significant drop‐off in warning times between the MMI 4 and 5 levels of predicted shaking. However, widely used ShakeAlert products, such as the MMI 3 and 4 contour products, can provide sufficiently long warning times before strong shaking in moderate‐to‐great earthquakes to enable a range of protective actions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Evaluating machine learning approaches to identify and predict oil and gas produced water lithium concentrations

Recently, the demand for battery-grade lithium has substantially increased, largely due to electrification of the transportation sector. The search for new lithium sources has turned to produced waters (frequently brines), a large-volume wastewater by-product of oil and gas extraction. Geochemical analysis indicates the presence of varying concentrations of lithium from produced water samples collected across the United States and represented in the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Produced Water Geochemical Database, as well as mixtures of Marcellus Shale produced water included in the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s Oil and Gas Well Waste Reports. We first examined whether the geochemical signature of the lithium-bearing produced waters is sufficiently distinct so that machine learning (ML) can be used to correctly classify samples to the formation of origin. The produced water sample data used to assess classification accuracy were from the Marcellus Shale, Utica Shale and Point Pleasant Formation (Utica), and Smackover Formation oil and gas wells. Further, we evaluated the potential for ML to accurately classify Marcellus Shale produced water spatially (i.e., northeast versus southwest Pennsylvania). We then investigated whether ML algorithms applied to a suite of geochemical concentration data (i.e. Ba, Br, Cl, K, Mg, Sr) may be used to predict the lithium concentration of an unknown sample. Finally, we applied an estimated economic lithium grade cutoff of 150 milligrams per liter (mg/l) and assessed the utility of ML to predict whether a produced water sample would fall above or below the grade cutoff based on the suite of geochemical parameters. Four machine learning algorithms—Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Trees (GBT), Extreme Boosting (XGBoost), and Deep Neural Networks (DNN) were assessed. This study successfully demonstrates that all four machine learning methods can precisely and accurately estimate lithium concentrations and geologic formation classification. The products of this study contribute to the growing body of knowledge aimed at expanding the lithium resource base within the United States.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mi

Simulated effects of future water availability and protected species habitat in a perennial wetland, Santa Barbara County, California

This study evaluates the potential water availability in Barka Slough and the effects of changing hydrological conditions on the aquatic habitat of five protected species. Barka Slough is a historically perennial wetland at the downstream western end of the San Antonio Creek Valley watershed (SACVW). A previously published hydrologic model of the SACVW for 1948–2018 was extended to include 2019–2021 and then modified to simulate the future years of 2022–2051. Two models simulating the future years of 2022–2051 were constructed, each with different climate inputs: (1) a repeated historical climate and (2) a 2070-centered Drier Extreme Warming climate (2070 DEW). The model with the 2070 DEW climate had warmer temperatures and an increase in average annual precipitation driven by larger, albeit more infrequent, precipitation events than the model with the historical climate. Simulated groundwater pumpage resulted in cumulative groundwater storage depletion and groundwater-level decline in Barka Slough in both future models. The simulations indicate that Barka Slough may transition from a perennial to an ephemeral wetland. Streamflow, stream disconnection, and depth to groundwater are key habitat metrics for federally listed species in Barka Slough. Future seasonal conditions for each metric are more likely to affect federally listed species’ habitats under 2070 DEW climatic conditions. Future seasonal streamflow volume may negatively impact unarmored threespine stickleback ( Gasterosteus aculeatus williamsoni ) and tidewater goby ( Eucyclogobis newberryi) habitats. Future seasonal stream disconnection may negatively impact the unarmored threespine stickleback habitat. Future groundwater-level decline may negatively impact Gambel’s watercress ( Nasturtium gambelii ) and La Graciosa thistle ( Cirsium scariosum var. loncholepis ) habitats and could influence the ability to use Barka Slough as a restoration or reintroduction site for these species. Results from this study can be used to inform water management decisions to sustain future groundwater availability in the SACVW.

California

Potential for leakage among principal aquifers in the Memphis area, Tennessee

The principal aquifers in the Memphis area consist primarily of sand or sand and gravel, and the confining beds consist of clay, silt, sand, and lignite. The Jackson Formation and upper part of the Claiborne Group serve as the confining bed separating the water table aquifers from the Memphis Sand; the Flour Island Formation separates the Memphis Sand from the Fort Pillow Sand. Differences in total hydraulic head among the principal aquifers in the Memphis urban area result in vertical hydraulic gradients which create a potential for inter-aquifer exchange of water. Throughout this area, the gradient is downward from the water table aquifers to the Memphis Sand. In the central part of the Memphis urban area, the vertical hydraulic gradient is upward from the Fort Pillow Sand to the Memphis Sand, and in the eastern and western parts, it is downward from the Memphis Sand to the Fort Pillow Sand. The vertical distribution of carbon-14 data for water from the fluvial deposits, Memphis Sand, and Fort Pillow Sand shows an increase in the relative age of the water with depth. The areal distribution of carbon-14 data for water from the upper part of the Memphis Sand indicates that relatively recent water has been brought into the major cone of depression in the potentiometric surface of the Memphis Sand, either by horizontal movement or from downward vertical leakage. The normal, near-surface geothermal gradient in the Memphis area was determined to be 0.6 C/100 ft. Deviations from the normal geothermal gradient, in areas affected by intense pumping from the Memphis Sand, indicate that downward vertical leakage occurs from the water table aquifers through the Jackson-upper Claiborne confining bed to the Memphis Sand. The velocity of downward vertical leakage of water from the Memphis Sand through the Flour Island confining bed to the Fort Pillow Sand was determined to be 0.0066 ft/day by analysis of borehole temperature data from an observation well in the northeastern part of the Memphis area. From this velocity and the head difference between the Memphis Sand and the Fort Pillow Sand at this locality, the hydraulic conductivity of the Flour Island confining bed was determined to be 0.00114 ft/day. (Lantz-PTT)

Tennessee

Probing lower-crustal fault properties with frequency-dependent tidal tremor triggering

The way seismicity responds to periodic stress perturbations offers crucial insights into the processes that can trigger an earthquake. Laboratory and theoretical analyses have shown that the period of imposed forcing and source properties affect the sensitivity to triggering, but frequency-dependent triggering of tectonic faults is poorly understood. The rate of low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) near Parkfield, California has been found to be strongly correlated with solid earth tides. Tidal forcing acts over multiple frequencies, and the sensitivity to tidal triggering of LFEs therefore provides a unique opportunity to probe the physics of earthquake triggering and underlying fault properties. Here, we find that the response of LFEs to solid earth tides at diurnal and semi-diurnal frequencies is highly variable but spatially coherent along the San Andreas Fault. Using rate-state friction modeling, we find that the variation of the amplitude of tidal modulation is mainly affected by the spatial variation of the background effective normal stress, whereas the spatially varied tidal modulation at diurnal and semi-diurnal frequencies is mainly affected by the fault frictional property. The spatial variations of the LFE response reveal a heterogeneous lower-crustal geologic structure and complex physical faulting processes below the rupture zone of eventual great earthquakes.

California

Airborne geophysics for geologic mapping of critical mineral systems in the United States southern midcontinent

The increased demand for clean energy technology and a significant reliance on foreign supply chains have given impetus to understanding critical mineral systems and locating potential resources within the United States. At least thirteen critical mineral-bearing systems have been identified throughout the U.S. southern Midcontinent (Hofstra and Kreiner, 2020) but much of the region’s geologic framework is concealed by vegetation and sedimentary cover that hinder traditional geologic mapping efforts. Airborne geophysical data provide an effective way to overcome these obstacles and to provide additional insight into the deeper structures that underlie shallow mineralization. However, legacy airborne magnetic and radiometric data were collected using now-outdated instruments and methods, inconsistent survey parameters, and large flight-line spacings resulting in low-resolution data that present challenges to regional-scale study and interpretation. Over the last decade, the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Mapping Resources Initiative (EMRI) and National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program have conducted a series of high-resolution airborne magnetic and radiometric surveys across the southern Midcontinent (Fig. 1) as part of an effort to improve understanding of the geophysical framework and natural resource potential in the region. These surveys are designed using modern survey methods and instruments with consistent parameters for flight-line spacing and flight height relative to magnetic sources. The EMRI airborne surveys are planned in collaboration with State geological surveys based on focus areas (Dicken et al., 2022) according to the presence of or potential for critical mineral deposits. High-resolution airborne magnetic and radiometric data cover focus areas such as the southeast Missouri iron metallogenic province and South-Central iron-oxide-apatite (IOA) – iron-oxide-copper-gold (IOCG) province, the Magnet Cove alkaline-carbonatite complex, the Midwest Permian ultramafic dike district, the Illinois-Kentucky fluorspar district, and several Mississippi Valley-type lead-zinc deposits and districts (Fig. 1). These focus areas represent known deposits or prospective host systems of critical minerals including rare earth elements (REEs), platinum-group elements (PGEs), cobalt, lithium, fluorspar, niobium, titanium, vanadium, lead, zinc, gallium, germanium, and many more. Other significant geologic and geophysical features covered include the Reelfoot rift, the New Madrid seismic zone, the Illinois basin, the Arkoma basin, the South-Central magnetic lineament, and the Kentucky-Tennessee magnetic anomaly (Fig. 1). This presentation focuses on new airborne magnetic and radiometric data with continuous coverage across parts of six states, preliminary interpretations, examples of geologic mapping applications, and discussion of newly discovered magnetic anomalies and follow-up investigations.

Conference Paper

Perchlorate, metals, organic compounds, and lead isotopes in groundwater, surface water, shallow groundwater, and soil within and near the Middleton Municipal Airport–Morey Field (C29), Middleton, Wisconsin, 2022

The Middleton Municipal Airport–Morey Field (C29) is in the City of Middleton and adjacent to the towns of Middleton and Springfield, Wisconsin. Nearby homes in the towns rely on private drinking water wells, and residents are concerned about the potential contamination of groundwater and surface water by airport activities, including flights by small aircraft that use leaded aviation fuel and a fireworks display in July 2021. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Town of Middleton, completed a study in 2022 to characterize the occurrence and sources of perchlorate, metals (including lead), and organic compounds in samples of groundwater, surface water, shallow groundwater, and soils within and near the airport. Lead isotopes were also measured to determine sources of lead by comparing samples to environmental references. Magnitudes of concentrations from samples of water and soil collected in 2022, and their spatial patterns across site locations, indicate the fireworks display in July 2021 was a likely source of perchlorate and metals in the airport study area. The highest perchlorate concentration was measured in surface water at the southeastern corner of the airport near the fireworks launch site; the highest concentrations of fireworks-associated metals were measured in shallow groundwater near the same location. Fireworks were not the only possible source of perchlorate and metals in the airport study area because both were also detected upgradient and away from the fireworks launch site. Ratios of lead isotopes indicate that lead measured in water and soil within the airport study area was primarily sourced from background atmospheric lead deposition or Wisconsin galena lead ore. However, two groundwater samples (one upgradient and one downgradient from the airport; both with concentrations less than 1 microgram per liter) had isotopic signatures matching leaded aviation fuel sold at the airport.

Wisconsin

Temperature

The “National Field Manual for the Collection of Water-Quality Data” (NFM) provides guidelines and procedures for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel who collect data used to assess the quality of the Nation’s surface-water and groundwater resources. This chapter, NFM A6.1, provides guidance and protocols for the measurement of temperature of air, of a surface-water body or in groundwater, which include the scientific basis of the measurement, selection and maintenance of equipment, calibration verification, troubleshooting, and procedures for measurement and reporting. It updates and supersedes USGS Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations, book 9, chapter A6.1, version 2.0, by Franceska D. Wilde. Temperature of air and water is routinely measured when water samples are collected, is often measured continually at USGS streamgages, and is a parameter regularly measured during laboratory and field experiments. The field method for measuring temperature described in this chapter is applicable to air and most natural waters. Before 2017, the NFM chapters were released in the USGS Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations series. Effective in 2018, new and revised NFM chapters are being released in the USGS Techniques and Methods series; this series change does not affect the content and format of the NFM. More information is in the general introduction to the NFM (USGS Techniques and Methods, book 9, chapter A0) at https://doi.org/10.3133/tm9A0 . The authoritative current versions of NFM chapters are available in the USGS Publications Warehouse at https://pubs.usgs.gov/ . Comments, questions, and suggestions related to the NFM can be addressed to nfm@usgs.gov .

Techniques and Methods

A benchmark dataset and workflow for landslide susceptibility zonation

Landslide susceptibility shows the spatial likelihood of landslide occurrence in a specific geographical area and is a relevant tool for mitigating the impact of landslides worldwide. As such, it is the subject of countless scientific studies. Many methods exist for generating a susceptibility map, mostly falling under the definition of statistical or machine learning. These models try to solve a classification problem: given a collection of spatial variables, and their combination associated with landslide presence or absence, a model should be trained, tested to reproduce the target outcome, and eventually applied to unseen data. Contrary to many fields of science that use machine learning for specific tasks, no reference data exist to assess the performance of a given method for landslide susceptibility. Here, we propose a benchmark dataset consisting of 7360 slope units encompassing an area of about 4,100 km 2 "> 4,100 km 2 in Central Italy. Using the dataset, we tried to answer two open questions in landslide research: (1) what effect does the human variability have in creating susceptibility models; (2) how can we develop a reproducible workflow for allowing meaningful model comparisons within the landslide susceptibility research community. With these questions in mind, we released a preliminary version of the dataset, along with a “call for collaboration,” aimed at collecting different calculations using the proposed data, and leaving the freedom of implementation to the respondents. Contributions were different in many respects, including classification methods, use of predictors, implementation of training/validation, and performance assessment. That feedback suggested refining the initial dataset, and constraining the implementation workflow. This resulted in a final benchmark dataset and landslide susceptibility maps obtained with many classification methods. Values of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve obtained with the final benchmark dataset were rather similar, as an effect of constraints on training, cross–validation, and use of data. Brier score results show larger variability, instead, ascribed to different model predictive abilities. Correlation plots show similarities between results of different methods applied by the same group, ascribed to a residual implementation dependence. We stress that the experiment did not intend to select the “best” method but only to establish a first benchmark dataset and workflow, that may be useful as a standard reference for calculations by other scholars. The experiment, to our knowledge, is the first of its kind for landslide susceptibility modeling. The data and workflow presented here comparatively assess the performance of independent methods for landslide susceptibility and we suggest the benchmark approach as a best practice for quantitative research in geosciences.

Earth-Science Reviews