USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Evolution”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,207 records · Page 67Linked to original sources

Using conceptual models to relate multiparameter satellite data to subsurface volcanic processes in Latin America

Satellite data have been extensively used to identify volcanic behavior. However, the physical subsurface processes causing any individual manifestation of activity can be ambiguous. We propose a classification scheme for the cause of unrest that simultaneously considers three multiparameter satellite observations. The scheme is based on characteristics of the volcanic system (open, closed, and eruptive) and unrest mechanisms (intrusion, evolution, and withdrawal) occurring at shallow depths in the volcanic system. We applied these models to satellite observations acquired at 47 of the most active volcanoes in Latin America. Of the volcanoes studied, 44 had a robust enough dataset for classification and were clustered into 4 groups and 10 subgroups with common behavioral characteristics. By identifying that these volcanoes can be clustered into a number of groupings significantly less than the number of volcanoes, we have demonstrated that commonalities in behavior patterns exist among diverse volcanic systems. Identifying volcanoes with similar characteristics underpins the use of past observations at one volcano to forecast activity at another and diverges from typical volcanic groupings, which are focused on geologic parameters (i.e., composition, volcano type, and tectonic setting). Based on satellite data alone, we have identified preeruptive intrusion prior to 15 eruptions at 12 different volcanoes, magma evolution prior to 18 eruptions at 13 volcanoes, and magma withdrawal at 3 eruptions and 3 volcanoes. Improvements to the spatial and temporal resolution are needed to make these relations robust. This classification scheme provides a framework for future automated clustering of volcanoes.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗

A parametric numerical analysis of factors controlling ground ruptures caused by groundwater pumping

A modeling analysis is used to investigate the relative susceptibility of various hydrogeologic configurations to aseismic rupture generation due to deformation of aquifer systems accompanying groundwater pumping. An advanced numerical model (GEPS3D) is used to simulate rupture generation and propagation for three typical processes: (i) reactivation of a preexisting fault, (ii) differential compaction due to variations in thickness of aquifer/aquitard layers constituting the aquifer system, and (iii) tensile fracturing above a bedrock ridge that forms the base of the aquifer system. A sensitivity analysis is developed to address the relative importance of various factors, including aquifer depletion, aquifer thickness, the possible uneven distribution and depth below land surface of the aquifer/aquitard layers susceptible to aquifer-system compaction, and the height of bedrock ridges beneath the aquifer system which contributes to thinning of the aquifer system. The rupture evolution is classified in two occurrences. In one, the rupture develops at the top of the aquifer or at land surface and does not propagate. In the other, the developed rupture propagates from the aquifer top toward the land surface and/or from the land surface downward. The aquifer depth is the most important factor controlling rupture evolution. Specifically, the probability of a significant rupture propagation is higher when the aquifer top is near land surface. The numerical results are processed by a statistical regression analysis to provide a general methodology for a preliminary evaluation of possible ruptures development in exploited aquifer systems susceptible to aquifer-system compaction and accompanying land subsidence. A comparison with a few representative case studies in Arizona, USA, China, and Mexico supports the study outcomes.

Arizona↗

Combined seismic and geodetic analysis before, during and after the 2018 Mt. Etna eruption

In December 2018, Etna volcano experienced one of the largest episodes of unrest since the installation of geophysical monitoring networks in 1970. The unrest culminated in a short eruption with a small volume of lava erupted, a significant seismic crisis and deformation of the entire volcanic edifice of magnitude never recorded before at Mount Etna. Here we describe the evolution of the 2018 eruptive cycle from the analysis of seismic and geodetic data collected in the months preceding, during, and following the intrusion. We model the space-time evolution of high-rate deformation data starting from the active source previously identified from deformation data and the propagation of seismicity in a 3-D velocity model. The intrusion model suggests emplacement of two dikes: a smaller dike located beneath the eruptive fissure and a second, deeper dike between 1 and 5 km below sea level that opened ~2 m. The rise and eruption of magma from the shallower dike did not interrupt the pressurization of a long-lasting deeper reservoir (~6 km) that induced continuous inflation and intense deformation of the eastern flank. Shortly after the intrusion, on 26 December 2018, a M L 4.8 earthquake occurred near Pisano, destroying buildings and roads in two villages. We propose a time-dependent intrusion model that supports the hypothesis of the inflation inducing flank deformation and that this process has been active since September 2018.

Mt. Etna↗

Compositional layering in Io driven by magmatic segregation and volcanism

The compositional evolution of volcanic bodies like Io is not well understood. Magmatic segregation and volcanic eruptions transport tidal heat from Io's interior to its surface. Several observed eruptions appear to be extremely high temperature (≥ 1600 K), suggesting either very high degrees of melting, refractory source regions, or intensive viscous heating on ascent. To address this ambiguity, we develop a model that couples crust and mantle dynamics to a simple compositional system. We analyse the model to investigate chemical structure and evolution. We demonstrate that magmatic segregation and volcanic eruptions lead to stratification of the mantle, the extent of which depends on how easily high temperature melts from the more refractory lower mantle can migrate upwards. We propose that Io's highest temperature eruptions originate from this lower mantle region, and that such eruptions act to limit the degree of compositional stratification.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

Variation in leaf reflectance spectra across the California flora partitioned by evolutionary history, geographic origin, and deep time

Evolutionary relatedness underlies patterns of functional diversity in the natural world. Hyperspectral remote sensing has the potential to detect these patterns in plants through inherited patterns of leaf reflectance spectra. We collected leaf reflectance data from across the California flora from plants grown in a common garden. Regions of the reflectance spectra vary in the depth and strength of phylogenetic signal. We also show that these differences are much greater than variation due to the geographic origin of the plant. At the phylogenetic extent of the California flora, spectral variation explained by the combination of ecotypic variation (divergent evolution) and convergent evolution of disparate lineages was minimal (3 to 7 %) but statistically significant. Interestingly, at the extent of a single genus ( Arctostaphylos ) no unique variation could be attributed to geographic origin. However, up to 18% of the spectral variation among Arctostaphylos individuals was shared between phylogeny and intraspecific variation stemming from ecotypic differences (i.e., geographic origin). Future studies could conduct more structured experiments (e.g., transplants or observations along environmental gradients) to disentangle these sources of variation and include other intraspecific variation (e.g., plasticity). We constrain broad scale spectral variability due to ecotypic sources, providing further support for the idea that phylogenetic clusters of species might be detectable through remote sensing. Phylogenetic clusters could represent a valuable dimension of biodiversity monitoring and detection.

California↗

Defining the timing, extent, and conditions of Paleozoic metamorphism in the southern Appalachian Blue Ridge terranes of Tennessee, North Carolina, and northern Georgia

The tectonometamorphic evolution of the southern Appalachians, which results from multiple Paleozoic orogenies (Taconic, Neoacadian, and Alleghanian), has lacked a consensus interpretation regarding its thermal-metamorphic history. The Blue Ridge terranes have remained the focus of the debate, with the interpreted timing of regional Barrovian metamorphism and associated deformation ranging from early (Taconic) to late Paleozoic (Alleghanian). New monazite U-Pb geochronology and thermobarometric data are integrated with previously reported geo- and thermochronology to delimit the Paleozoic thermal-metamorphic evolution of these terranes. Monazite compositional, textural, and U-Pb age systematics are remarkably consistent for all samples, yielding a single dominant age mode for each sample. The western, central, and eastern Blue Ridge terranes yield weighted mean monazite U-Pb ages of 450–441, 459–457, and 458–453 Ma, respectively. Thermodynamic modeling using mineral assemblages yields peak conditions of 600°C–650°C and 5.8–8.9 kbar for staurolite and kyanite grade western Blue Ridge units, including the stratigraphically youngest unit in the Murphy syncline, which also yields a weighted mean monazite U-Pb age of 441 Ma. The Taconic metamorphic core of the central Blue Ridge yields peak conditions of 775°C and ∼11.5 kbar. Combined, these ages indicate that the relatively intact Barrovian metamorphic progression mapped across the Blue Ridge of Tennessee, North Carolina, and northern Georgia is solely of Ordovician (Taconic) age. Synthesis of this new data with existing geo- and thermochronology support a model of Barrovian metamorphism resulting from construction of a Taconic accretionary wedge and subduction complex, followed by post-Taconic unroofing during Neoacadian and Alleghanian thrusting.

Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee↗

Using subducting plate motion to constrain Cascadia slab geometry and interface strength

Subduction zones are home to multiple geohazards driven by the evolution of the regional tectonics, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides. Past evolution builds the present-day structure of the margin, while the present-day configuration of the system determines the state-of-stress in which individual hazardous events manifest. Regional simulations of subduction zones provide a tool to synthesize the tectonic history of a region and investigate how geologic features lead to variations in the state of stress across the subduction system. However, it is challenging to design regional models that provide a force-balance that is consistent with the large-scale motion of surrounding tectonic plates while also not over-constraining the solution. Here, we present new models for the Cascadia subduction zone that meet these criteria and demonstrate how the motion of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate can be used to determine the along-strike variations in the viscous (long-term) coupling across the plate boundary. All successful models require lower viscous coupling in the northern section of the trench compared to the central and southern sections. However, due to uncertainties in the geometry of the Cascadia slab, we find that there is a trade-off between along-strike variation in viscous coupling and slab shape. Better constraints on the slab shape, and/or use of other observations are needed to resolve this trade-off. The approach presented here provides a framework for further exploring how geologic features in the overriding plate and the properties of the plate boundary region affect the state-of-stress across this and other subduction zones.

Cascadia subduction zone↗

Apatite geo-thermochronology and geochemistry constrain Oligocene-Miocene growth and geodynamics of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Understanding the geodynamics of plateau evolution requires examining the spatial and temporal aspects of mountain building in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, which are still under debate. Here we integrate apatite geo-thermochronological and geochemical data from the Oligocene-Miocene succession of the Xunhua Basin to elucidate the evolution of the regional topography. The results suggest sediment provenance changes, at ca. 28, 20 and 12 Ma, indicating topographic growth of the West Qinling, Laji Shan, and Jishi Shan source areas, respectively. Our findings reveal Oligocene-Miocene stepwise deformation and middle Miocene stress reorganization within the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We attribute this to Oligocene lithospheric foundering beneath the south-central Tibetan Plateau and the middle Miocene initiation of sinistral strike-slip faults due to the underthrusting of India and North China. This study highlights the roles of lithospheric removal and continental underthrusting in plateau growth, and the value of multi-proxy apatite analyses in provenance studies.

Northeastern Tibetan Plateau↗

Patterns and drivers of cliff erosion in Big Sur, California, USA using repeat photogrammetry, 2017–2023

Seacliff erosion in steep terrain poses major risks to transportation and critical infrastructure. In Big Sur, California, USA, seacliff erosion threatens the sustainability of the central coast stretch of California State Route 1, a transportation corridor that is critical to the region's economy. Published cliff retreat rates for the region range from 1 to 40 cm yr −1 , highlighting that high-resolution, process-based studies could enhance understanding of the causes of spatial and temporal variability. We quantified cliff erosion and investigated its drivers along ∼13 km of the Big Sur coastline at week–month timescales during the late fall to early spring wet seasons between January 2017 and June 2023 by analyzing 3D point clouds developed from aerial imagery using four-dimensional structure-from-motion (4D SfM) photogrammetry techniques. We calculated cliff face retreat rates of 2.23 ± 3.06 cm yr −1 (mean ±1 σ ), an order of magnitude lower than long-term estimated rates for the region (which included large deep-seated landslides), but in line with short-term rates reported across California. Change detection imagery comparison, cliff profiles through time, and statistical analysis reveal a cyclical cliff evolution process in which erosion by wave action at the cliff base destabilizes the cliff and primes it for subsequent failure during precipitation events. Although more erosion by volume could be attributed to precipitation-induced increases in soil moisture (784 m 3 km −1 yr −1 ) compared with erosion attributed to wave power (282 m 3 km −1 yr −1 ), our observations underscore the coupled nature of these processes in driving cliff evolution, consistent with established theory and observations.

California↗

The geologic history of the Chehalis Forearc Basin, Washington State, USA

The Chehalis basin is located between the Cascade arc and the Coast Range in southwest Washington State. It consists of sedimentary and volcanic rocks deposited throughout the Cenozoic and is underlain by the Siletzia terrane, a thick, large igneous province accreted in the Eocene. Here, we constrain evolution of the Chehalis basin depocenter using isochore maps derived from isostatic gravity anomalies, borehole data, and stratigraphy for several time periods: the Eocene (47.6–36.8 Ma), the Oligocene (36.8–20 Ma), and the Neogene (20–0 Ma). Our results suggest that local subsidence is driven by deformation on faults that bound and intersect the basin. We see northward depocenter migration, interpreted as a shift in deformation from the northwest striking Cedar Creek fault to the west striking Doty fault. We interpret these data in terms of the long-term north-south shortening and clockwise rotation of the Cascadia forearc. During the Eocene, the Cedar Creek fault was preferentially aligned with north-south shortening, but became less active when clockwise rotation brought the Doty fault into east-west alignment with the stress field. Sediment accumulation rates decreased from 196 m/Myr in the Paleogene (∼40–20 Ma) to 27 m/Myr in the Neogene (∼20–0 Ma) as Miocene uplift of the Coast Range limited accommodation space and shifted the depositional environment from marine to fluvial. Our results are consistent with the geologic evolution of the Portland and Tualatin basins to the south and reveal a depositional and structural history uniquely shaped by clockwise rotation of the Cascadia forearc.

Washington↗

Base cation concentrations in subsurface flow from a forested hillslope: The role of flushing frequency

A 20-m-wide trench was excavated to bedrock on a hillslope at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed in the Piedmont region of Georgia to determine the effect of upslope drainage area from the soil and bedrock surfaces on the geochemical evolution of base cation concentrations in subsurface flow. Samples were collected from ten 2-m sections and five natural soil pipes during three winter rainstorms in 1996. Base cation concentrations in hillslope subsurface flow were generally highest early and late in the storm response when flow rates were low, but during peak flow, concentrations varied little. Base cation concentrations in matrix flow from the 10 trench sections were unrelated to the soil surface drainage area and weakly inversely related to the bedrock surface drainage area. Base cation concentrations in pipe flow were lower than those in matrix flow and were also consistent with the inverse relation to bedrock surface drainage area found in matrix flow. The left side of the trench, which has the highest bedrock surface drainage area, had consistently lower mean base cation concentrations than the right side of the trench, which has the lowest bedrock surface drainage area. During moderate size rain events of about 20–40 mm, subsurface flow occurred only on the left side of the trench. The greater volume of water that has flowed through the left side of the trench appears to have resulted in greater leaching of base cations from soils and therefore lower base cation concentrations in subsurface flow than in flow from the right side of the trench. Alternatively, a greater proportion of flow that bypasses the soil matrix may have occurred through the hillslope on the left side of the trench than on the right side. Flushing frequency links spatial hillslope water flux with the evolution of groundwater and soil chemistry.

Georgia↗

Late Neogene geohistory analysis of the Humboldt basin and its relationship to convergence of the Juan de Fuca plate

Geohistory analysis of Neogene Humboldt basin strata provides important constraints for hypotheses of the tectonic evolution of the southern Cascadia subduction margin, leading up to the arrival of the Mendocino triple junction. This analysis suggests that the tectonic evolution of the Humboldt basin area was dominated by coupling between the downgoing Juan de Fuca plate and the continental margin. This coupling is reflected in the timing of major hiatuses within the basin sedimentary sequence and margin uplift and subsidence which occur during periods of tectonic plate adjustment. Stratigraphic evidence indicates that Humboldt basin originated at the base of the continental slope in early Miocene time. Syndepositional uplift of basin strata began in the late Pliocene and was both thermal isostatic and tectonic in origin. Isostatic uplift was a function of an increasingly more buoyant slab being subducted, whereas tectonic uplift was due to imbricated thrusting of the accretionary complex and underplating of offscraped sediment during subduction. A component of margin uplift is postulated to have been caused by a change in the rate of convergence between the Juan de Fuca and North American plates. Coeval with late Pliocene uplift documented onshore was a sharp decrease in covergence rate ∼3 Ma. A reduction in rate of tectonic uplift, observed in the Eel River section, in early Pleistocene time was coeval with a marked increase in relative motion parallel to the continental margin. This localized subsidence may have been caused by syndepositional folding.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

Ground-water flow in low permeability environments

Certain geologic media are known to have small permeability; subsurface environments composed of these media and lacking well developed secondary permeability have groundwater flow sytems with many distinctive characteristics. Moreover, groundwater flow in these environments appears to influence the evolution of certain hydrologic, geologic, and geochemical systems, may affect the accumulation of pertroleum and ores, and probably has a role in the structural evolution of parts of the crust. Such environments are also important in the context of waste disposal. This review attempts to synthesize the diverse contributions of various disciplines to the problem of flow in low-permeability environments. Problems hindering analysis are enumerated together with suggested approaches to overcoming them. A common thread running through the discussion is the significance of size- and time-scale limitations of the ability to directly observe flow behavior and make measurements of parameters. These limitations have resulted in rather distinct small- and large-scale approaches to the problem. The first part of the review considers experimental investigations of low-permeability flow, including in situ testing; these are generally conducted on temporal and spatial scales which are relatively small compared with those of interest. Results from this work have provided increasingly detailed information about many aspects of the flow but leave certain questions unanswered. Recent advances in laboratory and in situ testing techniques have permitted measurements of permeability and storage properties in progressively “tighter” media and investigation of transient flow under these conditions. However, very large hydraulic gradients are still required for the tests; an observational gap exists for typical in situ gradients. The applicability of Darcy's law in this range is therefore untested, although claims of observed non-Darcian behavior appear flawed. Two important nonhydraulic flow phenomena, osmosis and ultrafiltration, are experimentally well established in prepared clays but have been incompletely investigated, particularly in undisturbed geologic media. Small-scale experimental results form much of the basis for analyses of flow in low-permeability environments which occurs on scales of time and size too large to permit direct observation. Such large-scale flow behavior is the focus of the second part of the review. Extrapolation of small-scale experimental experience becomes an important and sometimes controversial problem in this context. In large flow systems under steady state conditions the regional permeability can sometimes be determined, but systems with transient flow are more difficult to analyze. The complexity of the problem is enhanced by the sensitivity of large-scale flow to the effects of slow geologic processes. One-dimensional studies have begun to elucidate how simple burial or exhumation can generate transient flow conditions by changing the state of stress and temperature and by burial metamorphism. Investigation of the more complex problem of the interaction of geologic processes and flow in two and three dimensions is just beginning. Because these transient flow analyses have largely been based on flow in experimental scale systems or in relatively permeable systems, deformation in response to effective stress changes is generally treated as linearly elastic; however, this treatment creates difficulties for the long periods of interest because viscoelastic deformation is probably significant. Also, large-scale flow simulations in argillaceous environments generally have neglected osmosis and ultrafiltration, in part because extrapolation of laboratory experience with coupled flow to large scales under in situ conditions is controversial. Nevertheless, the effects are potentially quite important because the coupled flow might cause ultra long lived transient conditions. The difficulties associated with analysis are matched by those of characterizing hydrologic conditions in tight environments; measurements of hydraulic head and sampling of pore fluids have been done only rarely because of the practical difficulties involved. These problems are also discussed in the second part of this paper.

Water Resources Research↗

Contrasting evolutionary histories of MHC class I and class II loci in grouse—Effects of selection and gene conversion

Genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) encode receptor molecules that are responsible for recognition of intracellular and extracellular pathogens (class I and class II genes, respectively) in vertebrates. Given the different roles of class I and II MHC genes, one might expect the strength of selection to differ between these two classes. Different selective pressures may also promote different rates of gene conversion at each class. Despite these predictions, surprisingly few studies have looked at differences between class I and II genes in terms of both selection and gene conversion. Here, we investigated the molecular evolution of MHC class I and II genes in five closely related species of prairie grouse ( Centrocercus and Tympanuchus ) that possess one class I and two class II loci. We found striking differences in the strength of balancing selection acting on MHC class I versus class II genes. More than half of the putative antigen-binding sites (ABS) of class II were under positive or episodic diversifying selection, compared with only 10 % at class I. We also found that gene conversion had a stronger role in shaping the evolution of MHC class II than class I. Overall, the combination of strong positive (balancing) selection and frequent gene conversion has maintained higher diversity of MHC class II than class I in prairie grouse. This is one of the first studies clearly demonstrating that macroevolutionary mechanisms can act differently on genes involved in the immune response against intracellular and extracellular pathogens.

Heredity↗

Back to full interseismic plate locking decades after the giant 1960 Chile earthquake

Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 ( M w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to ~70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events.

Nature Communications↗

Triggering the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa

Distinguishing periods of intermittent unrest from the run-up to eruption is a major challenge at volcanoes around the globe. Comparing multidisciplinary monitoring data with mineral chemistry that records the physical and spatio-temporal evolution of magmas fundamentally advances our ability to forecast eruptions. The recent eruption of Mauna Loa, Earth’s largest active volcano, provides a unique opportunity to differentiate unrest from run-up and improve forecasting of future eruptions. After decades of intermittent seismic and geodetic activity over 38 years of repose, Mauna Loa began erupting on 27 November 2022. Here we present a multidisciplinary synthesis that tracks the spatio-temporal evolution of precursory activity by integrating mineral and melt chemistry, fluid inclusion barometry, numerical modeling of mineral zoning, syn-eruptive gas plume measurements, the distribution and frequency of earthquake hypocenters, seismic velocity changes, and ground deformation. These diverse data indicate that the eruption occurred following a 2-month period of sustained magma intrusion from depths of 3–5 km up to 1–2 km beneath the summit caldera, providing a new model of the plumbing system at this very high threat volcano. Careful correlation of both the geochemistry and instrumental monitoring data improves our ability to distinguish unrest from the run-up to eruption by providing deeper understanding of the both the monitoring data and the magmatic system—an approach that could be applied at other volcanic systems worldwide.

Hawaii↗

Ploidy race distributions since the Last Glacial Maximum in the North American desert shrub, Larrea tridentata

A classic biogeographic pattern is the alignment of diploid, tetraploid and hexaploid races of creosote bush ( Larrea tridentata ) across the Chihuahuan, Sonoran and Mohave Deserts of western North America. We used statistically robust differences in guard cell size of modern plants and fossil leaves from packrat middens to map current and past distributions of these ploidy races since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Glacial/early Holocene (26–10 14 C kyr bp or thousands of radiocarbon years before present) populations included diploids along the lower Rio Grande of west Texas, 650 km removed from sympatric diploids and tetraploids in the lower Colorado River Basin of south-eastern California/south-western Arizona. Diploids migrated slowly from lower Rio Grande refugia with expansion into the northern Chihuahuan Desert sites forestalled until after ~4.0 14 C kyr bp . Tetraploids expanded from the lower Colorado River Basin into the northern limits of the Sonoran Desert in central Arizona by 6.4 14 C kyr bp . Hexaploids appeared by 8.5 14 C kyr bp in the lower Colorado River Basin, reaching their northernmost limits (~37°N) in the Mohave Desert between 5.6 and 3.9 14 C kyr bp . Modern diploid isolates may have resulted from both vicariant and dispersal events. In central Baja California and the lower Colorado River Basin, modern diploids probably originated from relict populations near glacial refugia. Founder events in the middle and late Holocene established diploid outposts on isolated limestone outcrops in areas of central and southern Arizona dominated by tetraploid populations. Geographic alignment of the three ploidy races along the modern gradient of increasingly drier and hotter summers is clearly a postglacial phenomenon, but evolution of both higher ploidy races must have happened before the Holocene. The exact timing and mechanism of polyploidy evolution in creosote bush remains a matter of conjecture.

Arizona, Baja California, Baja California Sur, Cal↗

Numerical simulation of widening and bed deformation of straight sand-bed rivers. II: Model evaluation

In this paper the numerical model presented in the companion paper is tested and applied. Assessment of model accuracy was based on two approaches. First, predictions of evolution of a 13.5 km reach of the South Fork of the Forked Deer River, in west Tennessee, were compared to observations over a 24-yr period. Results suggest that although the model was able to qualitatively predict trends of widening and deepening, quantitative predictions were not reliable. Simulated widths and depths were within 15% of the corresponding observed values, but observed change in these parameters at the study sites were also close to these values. Simulated rates of depth adjustment were within 15% of observed rates, but observed rates of channel widening at the study sites were approximately three times those simulated by the model. In the second approach, the model was used to generate relationships between stable channel width and bank-full discharge. The model was able to successfully replicate the form of empirically derived regime-width equations. Simulations were used to demonstrate the model's ability to obtain more realistic predictions of bed evolution in widening channels.

Journal of Hydraulic Engineering↗