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At least 1,207 records · Page 67Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Projected atoll shoreline and run-up changes in response to sea-level rise and varying large wave conditions at Wake and Midway Atolls, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

Atoll islands are dynamic features that respond to seasonal alterations in wave conditions and sea level. It is unclear how shoreline wave run-up and erosion patterns along these low elevation islands will respond to projected sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in wave climate over the next century, hindering communities' preparation for the future. To elucidate how these processes may respond to climate change, extreme boreal winter and summer wave conditions under future sea-level rise (SLR) and wave climate scenarios were simulated at two atolls, Wake and Midway, using a shallow-water hydrodynamic model. Nearshore wave conditions were used to compute the potential longshore sediment flux along island shorelines via the CERC empirical formula and wave-driven erosion was calculated as the divergence of the longshore drift; run-up and the locations where the run-up exceed the berm elevation were also determined. SLR is projected to predominantly drive future island morphological change and flooding. Seaward shorelines (i.e., ocean fronted shorelines directly facing incident wave energy) were projected to experience greater erosion and flooding with SLR and in hypothetical scenarios where changes to deep water wave directions were altered, as informed by previous climate change forced Pacific wave modeling efforts. These changes caused nearshore waves to become more shore-normal, increasing wave attack along previously protected shorelines. With SLR, leeward shorelines (i.e., an ocean facing shoreline but sheltered from incident wave energy) became more accretive on windward islands and marginally more erosive along leeward islands. These shorelines became more accretionary and subject to more flooding with nearshore waves becoming more shore-normal. Lagoon shorelines demonstrated the greatest SLR-driven increase in erosion and run-up. They exhibited the greatest relative change with increasing wave heights where both erosion and run-up magnitudes increased. Wider reef flat-fronted seaward shorelines became more accretive as all oceanographic forcing parameters increased in magnitude and exhibited large run-up increases following increasing wave heights. Island end shorelines became subject to increased flooding, erosion at Wake, and accretion at Midway with SLR. Under future conditions, windward and leeward islands are projected to become thinner as ocean facing and lagoonal shorelines erode, with leeward islands becoming more elongate. Island shorelines will change dramatically over the next century as SLR and altered wave climates drive new erosional regimes. It is vital to the sustainability of island communities that the relative magnitudes of these effects are addressed when planning for projected future climates.

Midway Atoll, Wake Atoll↗
USGS2008

A satellite snow depth multi-year average derived from SSM/I for the high latitude regions

The hydrological cycle for high latitude regions is inherently linked with the seasonal snowpack. Thus, accurately monitoring the snow depth and the associated aerial coverage are critical issues for monitoring the global climate system. Passive microwave satellite measurements provide an optimal means to monitor the snowpack over the arctic region. While the temporal evolution of snow extent can be observed globally from microwave radiometers, the determination of the corresponding snow depth is more difficult. A dynamic algorithm that accounts for the dependence of the microwave scattering on the snow grain size has been developed to estimate snow depth from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) brightness temperatures and was validated over the U.S. Great Plains and Western Siberia. The purpose of this study is to assess the dynamic algorithm performance over the entire high latitude (land) region by computing a snow depth multi-year field for the time period 1987-1995. This multi-year average is compared to the Global Soil Wetness Project-Phase2 (GSWP2) snow depth computed from several state-of-the-art land surface schemes and averaged over the same time period. The multi-year average obtained by the dynamic algorithm is in good agreement with the GSWP2 snow depth field (the correlation coefficient for January is 0.55). The static algorithm, which assumes a constant snow grain size in space and time does not correlate with the GSWP2 snow depth field (the correlation coefficient with GSWP2 data for January is - 0.03), but exhibits a very high anti-correlation with the NCEP average January air temperature field (correlation coefficient - 0.77), the deepest satellite snow pack being located in the coldest regions, where the snow grain size may be significantly larger than the average value used in the static algorithm. The dynamic algorithm performs better over Eurasia (with a correlation coefficient with GSWP2 snow depth equal to 0.65) than over North America (where the correlation coefficient decreases to 0.29). ?? 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS2022

Density-dependent and environmental influences on juvenile walleye Sander vitreus (Mitchill) survivorship in northern Wisconsin lakes

Walleye, Sander vitreus (Mitchill), natural recruitment has declined in northern Wisconsin lakes over time. Age-0 and age-1 walleye relative abundance (catch per unit effort; CPE) data from northern Wisconsin (1986–2019) were used to test for abiotic (i.e. lake characteristics and temperature variables) and biotic (age-0 and age-1 CPE) factors influencing age-0 to age-1 walleye mortality. Age-0 to age-1 walleye mortality was elevated at high age-0 CPE and variable at low age-0 CPE, which indicated strong density-dependence. Environmental factors such as spawning and ontogenetic phenology (climate change and ice-off dates), trophic mismatches, and metabolic and consumptive demand influenced age-0 to age-1 walleye mortality less strongly. Elevated age-0 to age-1 walleye mortality at low age-0 CPE supports previous findings of depensatory recruitment dynamics in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Additional research is needed to address elevated juvenile walleye mortality at low adult stock sizes and/or with declining natural recruitment to inform management decisions.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2014

Influence of stocking, site quality, stand age, low-severity canopy disturbance, and forest composition on sub-boreal aspen mixedwood carbon stocks

Low-severity canopy disturbance presumably influences forest carbon dynamics during the course of stand development, yet the topic has received relatively little attention. This is surprising because of the frequent occurrence of such events and the potential for both the severity and frequency of disturbances to increase as a result of climate change. We investigated the impacts of low-severity canopy disturbance and average insect defoliation on forest carbon stocks and rates of carbon sequestration in mature aspen mixedwood forests of varying stand age (ranging from 61 to 85 years), overstory composition, stocking level, and site quality. Stocking level and site quality positively affected the average annual aboveground tree carbon increment (C AAI ), while stocking level, site quality, and stand age positively affected tree carbon stocks (C TREE ) and total ecosystem carbon stocks (C TOTAL ). Cumulative canopy disturbance (DIST) was reconstructed using dendroecological methods over a 29-year period. DIST was negatively and significantly related to soil carbon (C SOIL ), and it was negatively, albeit marginally, related to C TOTAL . Minima in the annual aboveground carbon increment of trees (C AI ) occurred at sites during defoliation of aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.) by forest tent caterpillar ( Malacosoma disstria Hubner), and minima were more extreme at sites dominated by trembling aspen than sites mixed with conifers. At sites defoliated by forest tent caterpillar in the early 2000s, increased sequestration by the softwood component ( Abies balsamea (L.) Mill. and Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) compensated for overall decreases in C AI by 17% on average. These results underscore the importance of accounting for low-severity canopy disturbance events when developing regional forest carbon models and argue for the restoration and maintenance of historically important conifer species within aspen mixedwoods to enhance stand-level resilience to disturbance agents and maintain site-level carbon stocks.

Minnesota↗
USGS2008

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Overview

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is an instrument that collects remotely sensed data used by scientists for monitoring, modeling, and assessing the effects of natural processes and human actions on the Earth's surface. The continual calibration of the MODIS instruments, the refinement of algorithms used to create higher-level products, and the ongoing product validation make MODIS images a valuable time series (2000-present) of geophysical and biophysical land-surface measurements. Carried on two National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites, MODIS acquires morning (EOS-Terra) and afternoon (EOS-Aqua) views almost daily. Terra data acquisitions began in February 2000 and Aqua data acquisitions began in July 2002. Land data are generated only as higher-level products, removing the burden of common types of data processing from the user community. MODIS-based products describing ecological dynamics, radiation budget, and land cover are projected onto a sinusoidal mapping grid and distributed as 10- by 10-degree tiles at 250-, 500-, or 1,000-meter spatial resolution. Some products are also created on a 0.05-degree geographic grid to support climate modeling studies. All MODIS products are distributed in the Hierarchical Data Format-Earth Observing System (HDF-EOS) file format and are available through file transfer protocol (FTP) or on digital video disc (DVD) media. Versions 4 and 5 of MODIS land data products are currently available and represent 'validated' collections defined in stages of accuracy that are based on the number of field sites and time periods for which the products have been validated. Version 5 collections incorporate the longest time series of both Terra and Aqua MODIS data products.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2012

Listening to Glaciers: Passive hydroacoustics near marine-terminating glaciers

The catastrophic breakup of the Larsen B Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea in 2002 paints a vivid portrait of the effects of glacier-climate interactions. This event, along with other unexpected episodes of rapid mass loss from marine-terminating glaciers (i.e., tidewater glaciers, outlet glaciers, ice streams, ice shelves) sparked intensified study of the boundaries where marine-terminating glaciers interact with the ocean. These dynamic and dangerous boundaries require creative methods of observation and measurement. Toward this effort, we take advantage of the exceptional sound-propagating properties of seawater to record and interpret sounds generated at these glacial ice-ocean boundaries from distances safe for instrument deployment and operation.

Oceanography↗
USGS2022

High resolution spatiotemporal patterns of flow at the landscape scale in montane non-perennial streams

Intermittent and ephemeral streams in dryland environments support diverse assemblages of aquatic and terrestrial life. Understanding when and where water flows provide insights into the availability of water, its response to external controlling factors, and potential sensitivity to climate change and a host of human activities. Knowledge regarding the timing of drying/wetting cycles can also be useful to map critical habitats for species and ecosystems that rely on these temporary water sources. However, identifying the locations and monitoring the timing of streamflow and channel sediment moisture remains a challenging endeavor. In this paper, we analyzed daily conductivity from 37 sensors distributed along 10 streams across an arid mountain front in Arizona (United States) to assess spatiotemporal patterns in flow permanence, defined as the timing and extent of water in streams. Conductivity sensors provide information on surface flow and sediment moisture, supporting a stream classification based on seasonal flow dynamics. Our results provide insight into flow responses to seasonal rainfall, highlighting stream reaches very reactive to rainfall versus those demonstrating more stable streamflow. The strength of stream responses to precipitation are explored in the context of surficial geology. In summary, conductivity data can be used to map potential stream habitat for water-dependent species in both space and time, while also providing the basis upon which sensitivity to ongoing climate change can be evaluated.

Arizona↗
USGS2025

James Buttle review: The characteristics of baseflow resilience across diverse ecohydrological terrains

The dynamic storage of aquifers is the portion of groundwater that can potentially drain to any given point along a stream to create baseflow. Baseflow typically occurs year-round in perennial streams, though the characteristics and stability of dynamic storage are often most important to instream processes during extended dry periods (without precipitation and snowmelt) when runoff and quickflows are minimised. The term ‘baseflow resilience’ is defined for this review as the tendency of baseflow in streams to maintain a consistent volume and water quality year to year while under stress from climate variability and extremes, along with anthropogenic stressors such as water withdrawals, land use change, and water quality degradation. ‘Baseflow resilience’ has, in part, a user-defined meaning spanning water supply and water quality variables of primary interest. Watershed characteristics that directly impact resilience can often produce non-intuitive feedbacks that enhance some attributes of baseflow while simultaneously impairing others. For example, permeable stream corridor geology creates strong stream-groundwater hydrologic connectivity, yet fast groundwater drainage via preferential high-permeability flowpaths can lead to streamflow not being sustained during extended dry periods. Also, shallow groundwater sources are generally more immediately vulnerable to extreme events, warming, salinization, transpiration, and precipitation drought, compared to deeper groundwater. Yet baseflow drought in streams influenced by deeper groundwater can lag precipitation drought by years, and contaminant legacies may propagate through deep groundwater flowpaths to receiving waters for decades to centuries. Finally, irrigation withdrawals can intercept groundwater that would have drained to streams, and the application of irrigation may leach contaminants from the soil zone by unnaturally raising water tables, yet irrigation return flows can sustain baseflow and groundwater-dependent habitats in semiarid areas. This review covers the concept of hydrologic resilience in the context of stream baseflow processes and summarises the common hydrogeological controls on, and multiscale stressors of, dynamic groundwater storage. Further, we present several quantitative metrics to assess a range of water supply to water quality baseflow characteristics using both broadly available and boutique data types, a subset of which are demonstrated using data from the Delaware River Basin, USA.

Delaware River Basin↗
USGS2023

Decline in small mammal species richness in coastal-central California, 1997–2013

The richness and composition of a small mammal community inhabiting semiarid California oak woodland may be changing in response to climate change, but we know little about the causes or consequence of these changes. We applied a capture-mark-recapture model to 17 years (1997–2013) of live trapping data to estimate species-specific abundances. The big-eared woodrat was the most frequently captured species in the area, contributing 58% of total captures. All small mammal populations exhibited seasonal fluctuations, whereas those of the California mouse, brush mouse, and pinyon mouse declined during the study period. We also applied a multispecies dynamic occupancy model to our small mammal detection history data to estimate species richness, occupancy ( ), detection (p), local extinction ( ), and colonization ( ) probabilities, and to discern factors affecting these parameters. We found that decreased from 0.369 ± 0.088 in 1997 to 0.248 ± 0.054 in 2013; was lower during the dry season (May–September) than the wet season (October–April) and was positively influenced by total seasonal rainfall (slope parameter, = 0.859 ± 0.371; 95% CI = 0.132–1.587). Mean mammalian species richness decreased from 11.943 ± 0.461 in 1997 to 7.185 ± 0.425 in 2013. With highly variable climatic patterns expected in the future, especially increased frequency and intensity of droughts, it is important to monitor small mammal communities inhabiting threatened California oak woodlands.

California↗
USGS2022

Predictive accuracy of post-fire conifer death declines over time in models based on crown and bole injury

A key uncertainty of empirical models of post-fire tree mortality is understanding the drivers of elevated post-fire mortality several years following fire, known as delayed mortality. Delayed mortality can represent a substantial fraction of mortality, particularly for large trees that are a conservation focus in western US coniferous forests. Current post-fire tree mortality models have undergone limited evaluation of how injury level and time since fire interact to influence model accuracy and predictor variable importance. Less severe injuries potentially serve as an indicator for vulnerability to additional stressors such as bark beetle attack or moisture stress. We used a collection of 164,293 individual tree records to examine post-fire tree mortality in eight western USA conifers: Abies concolor , A. grandis , Calocedrus decurrens , Larix occidentalis , Pinus contorta , P. lambertiana , P. ponderosa , and Pseudotsuga menziesii . We evaluated the importance of fire injury predictors on discriminating between surviving trees versus immediate and delayed post-fire mortality. We fit balanced random forest models for each species using cumulative tree mortality from 1–5-years post-fire. We compared these results to multi-class random forest models using first-year mortality, 2–5-year mortality, and survival 5-years post-fire as a response variable. Crown volume scorched, diameter at breast height, and relative bark char height, were used as predictor variables. The cumulative mortality models all predicted trees that died within 1-year of fire with high accuracy but failed to predict 2–5-year mortality. The multi-class models were an improvement but had lower accuracy for predicting 2–5-year mortality. Multi-class model accuracies ranged from 85–95% across all species for predicting 1-year post-fire mortality, 42–71% for predicting 2–5-year mortality, and 64–85% for predicting trees that lived past 5-years. Our study highlights the differences in tree species tolerance to fire injury and suggests that including second-order predictors such as beetle attack or climatic water stress before and after fire will be critical to improve accuracy and better understand the mechanisms and patterns of fire-caused tree death. Random forest models have potential for management applications such as post-fire harvesting and simulating future stand dynamics.

western United States↗
USGS2005

Conservation of the Yellowstone grizzly bear

We review literature relevant to the conservation of Yellowstone's grizzly bear population and appraise the bear's long-term viability. We conclude that the population is isolated and vulnerable to epidemic perturbation and that the carrying capacity of the habitat is likely to shift downward under conditions of climate change. Viability analyses based on the assumption that future habitats will closely resemble those existing at present have limited applicability; more information is needed on the autecology of important bear foods and on the implications of landscape-scale changes for bear population dynamics. Optimism over prospects of long-term persistence for Yellowstone's grizzly bears does not seem to be warranted and management of this population should be conservative and not unduly swayed on short-term positive trends.

Yellowstone National Park↗
USGS2020

Exploring the potential of ground-penetrating radar (GPR) to measure the extent of chronic disturbance in peatlands: Examples from acid mine drainage and peat fire

Peatlands are accumulations of partially decayed organic soil that cover approximately 3% of Earth’s surface and have been shown to serve essential environmental and ecological functions such as sequestering carbon, purifying water, and providing habitat for organisms. However, peatlands are threatened by pressures from agriculture, urban development, mining, and climate change. Geophysical methods have been used in peatlands to determine peat volume and carbon stocks (e.g., Comas et al., 2017), observe differences in humification and water content (e.g., Ulriksen, 1982), guide engineering projects (e.g., Jol and Smith, 1995), learn about subsurface greenhouse gas dynamics (Wright and Comas, 2016), observe seasonal variations in pore water salinity (Walter et al., 2018), and assess hydrological processes (Hare et al., 2017). Among various geophysical methods, ground penetrating radar (GPR) is arguably the most popular for studying peat properties given the method’s sensitivity to variations in water content and ability to resolve major structural properties within the peat at high spatial resolution. Though less widely applied, frequency-domain analysis of GPR may also yield useful information.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2009

Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2005

Changes in the fish fauna of the Kissimmee River basin, peninsular Florida: Nonnative additions

Recent decades have seen substantial changes in fish assemblages in rivers of peninsular Florida. The most striking change has involved the addition of nonnative fishes, including taxa from Asia, Africa, and Central and South America. I review recent and historical records of fishes occurring in the Kissimmee River basin (7,800 km2), a low-gradient drainage with 47 extant native fishes (one possibly the result of an early transplant), at least 7 foreign fishes (most of which are widely established), and a stocked hybrid. Kissimmee assemblages include fewer marine fishes than the nearby Peace and Caloosahatchee rivers, and fewer introduced foreign fishes than south Florida canals. Fish assemblages of the Kissimmee and other subtropical Florida rivers are dynamic, due to new introductions, range expansions of nonnative fishes already present, and periodic declines in nonnative fish populations during occasional harsh winters. The addition, dispersal, and abundance of nonnative fishes in the basin is linked to many factors, including habitat disturbance, a subtropical climate, and the fact that the basin is centrally located in a region where drainage boundaries are blurred and introductions of foreign fishes commonplace. The first appearance of foreign fishes in the basin coincided with the complete channelization of the Kissimmee River in the 1970s. Although not a causal factor, artificial waterways connecting the upper lakes and channelization of the Kissimmee River have facilitated dispersal. With one possible exception, there have been no basin-wide losses of native fishes. When assessing change in peninsular Florida waters, extinction or extirpation of fishes appears to be a poor measure of impact. No endemic species are known from peninsular Florida (although some endemic subspecies have been noted). Most native freshwater fishes are themselves descended from recent invaders that reached the peninsula from the main continent. These invasions likely were associated with major fluctuations in sea level since the original mid-Oligocene emergence of the Florida Platform. As opportunistic invaders, most native freshwater fishes in peninsular Florida are resilient, widespread, and common. At this early stage, it is not possible to predict the long-term consequences caused by the introduction of foreign fishes. We know a few details about the unusual trophic roles and other aspects of the life histories of certain nonnatives. Still, the ecological outcome may take decades to unfold.

American Fisheries Society Symposium↗
USGS2014

Social-ecological resilience and law

Environmental law envisions ecological systems as existing in an equilibrium state, reinforcing a rigid legal framework unable to absorb rapid environmental changes and innovations in sustainability. For the past four decades, “resilience theory,” which embraces uncertainty and nonlinear dynamics in complex adaptive systems, has provided a robust, invaluable foundation for sound environmental management. Reforming American law to incorporate this knowledge is the key to sustainability. This volume features top legal and resilience scholars speaking on resilience theory and its legal applications to climate change, biodiversity, national parks, and water law.

Book↗
USGS2025

Scaling from microsite to landscape to resolve litter decomposition dynamics in globally extensive drylands

1. Decomposition controls the release of carbon and nutrients from decaying plant litter into soils or the atmosphere. In most biomes decomposition rates can be accurately predicted with simple mathematical models, but these models have long under-predicted decomposition in globally- extensive drylands. 2. We posit that the exposed surface conditions characteristic of drylands makes litter decomposition uniquely subject to microsite-specific environmental controls and spatially-variable microbial communities. As such, decomposition in dryland ecosystems – which are characterized by extremes in temporal heterogeneity of climate conditions and spatial heterogeneity of vegetation cover with corresponding microclimate variability – is a prime example of a macrosystems process that can be addressed by merging field data with new predictive models operating across a hierarchical continuum of spatial scales and process resolutions. 3. A macrosystems approach offers promise to reconcile model-measurement discrepancies by integrating observations and experiments across multiple scales, from microsites (e.g., shrub sub-canopy or intercanopy) to regions (e.g., across a 100s of km2 study site with complex topography, precipitation, and temperature) and ultimately to a continental perspective (e.g., North American drylands). 4. Recent developments in technology and data availability position the scientific community to integrate lab, field, modeling, and remote sensing approaches across a hierarchical range of scales to capture the spatiotemporal distribution of litter and environmental conditions needed to predict decay dynamics at the micro-to-macroscale. This multi-scale approach promises a path forward to resolving a longstanding disconnect between measured and modeled data in dryland litter decomposition. 5. Dryland litter decomposition presents an excellent case study for resolving spatially and temporally complex biogeochemical dynamics through a hierarchical, multidisciplinary macrosystems approach. 6. We focus on dryland litter decomposition, but the hierarchical, multidisciplinary macrosystems approach we outline shows great potential for resolving other spatially and temporally complex biogeochemical processes across a wide range of ecosystems.

Functional Ecology↗
USGS2017

Landform features and seasonal precipitation predict shallow groundwater influence on temperature in headwater streams

Headwater stream responses to climate change will depend in part on groundwater‐surface water exchanges. We used linear modeling techniques to partition likely effects of shallow groundwater seepage and air temperature on stream temperatures for 79 sites in nine focal watersheds using hourly air and water temperature measurements collected during summer months from 2012 to 2015 in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Shallow groundwater effects exhibited more variation within watersheds than between them, indicating the importance of reach‐scale assessments and the limited capacity to extrapolate upstream groundwater influences from downstream measurements. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models revealed intricate interactions among geomorphological landform features (stream slope, elevation, network length, contributing area, and channel confinement) and seasonal precipitation patterns (winter, spring, and summer months) that together were robust predictors of spatial and temporal variation in groundwater influence on stream temperatures. The final BRT model performed well for training data and cross‐validated samples (correlation = 0.984 and 0.760, respectively). Geomorphological and precipitation predictors of groundwater influence varied in their importance between watersheds, suggesting differences in spatial and temporal controls of recharge dynamics and the depth of the groundwater source. We demonstrate an application of the final BRT model to predict groundwater effects from landform and precipitation covariates at 1075 new sites distributed at 100 m increments within focal watersheds. Our study provides a framework to estimate effects of groundwater seepage on stream temperature in unsampled locations. We discuss applications for climate change research to account for groundwater‐surface water interactions when projecting future thermal thresholds for stream biota.

Virginia↗
USGS2024

Incorporating life history diversity in an integrated population model to inform viability analysis

Life history diversity can significantly affect population dynamics and effects of management actions. For instance, variation in individual responses to environmental variability can reduce extirpation risk to populations, as the portfolio effect dampens temporal variability in abundance. Moreover, differences in habitat use may cause individuals to respond differently to habitat management and climate variability. To explore the role of life history diversity in population trajectories, population models need to incorporate within-population variation. Integrated population modeling (IPM) is a population modeling approach that offers several advantages for sharing information and propagating uncertainty across datasets. In this study, we developed an IPM for an endangered population of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Wenatchee River, Washington, USA, that accounts for diversity in juvenile life histories, spawning location, and return age. Our analysis revealed that diversity in the age of juvenile emigration from natal streams had a portfolio effect, resulting in a 20% reduction in year-to-year variability in adult abundance in population projections. Our population viability analysis suggests that management interventions may be necessary to meet recovery goals, and our model should be useful for simulating the outcomes of proposed actions.

Washington↗