USGS ScienceSearch

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

1,689 records · Page 66Linked to original sources

Substrate Enhancement Pilot Project—Monitoring summary and evaluation, Kootenai River, Idaho, 2012–22

To assess changes in substrate conditions and the efficacy of artificially placed substrates at select sites on the Kootenai River near Bonners Ferry, Idaho, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kootenai Tribe of Idaho, completed repeat bathymetric, velocimetric, and underwater videography surveys. Collectively, three project sites throughout the Kootenai River make up the Substrate Enhancement Pilot Project (SEPP), an effort intended to improve spawning and egg incubation viability at locations identified to be aquatic habitat limited for the endangered Kootenai River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus). Following the placement of coarse substrates at each site, bathymetric, velocimetric, and underwater videography data were collected from 2012 to 2022 to assess the role of deposition and erosion on maintaining suitable white sturgeon spawning and incubation substrates. Minimal erosion and deposition occurred at all Substrate Enhancement Pilot Project sites, according to interannual and intra-annual net volumetric changes between bathymetric surveys. Depending on the timing of bathymetric surveys relative to the annual peak streamflow conditions, isolated locations of deposition or erosion were observed at each site and the potential for deposition or erosion was supported by measured mean depth-averaged velocities. This study concluded that variability of deposition and scour were common at each site throughout the monitoring period and may be attributed to fluctuations in streamflow. Repeat bathymetric, underwater videography, and velocity mapping surveys were used to verify the interstitial spaces and surfaces of substrates at each SEPP site remained free of fine sediments for intervals longer than a year but were susceptible to deposition between high streamflow events.

Idaho

Data gap analysis for estimation of agricultural return flows in the Upper Gunnison River Basin, Colorado

The Gunnison River and many tributaries in the Upper Gunnison River Basin provide water to irrigate agricultural crops. The application of irrigation water can recharge some aquifers locally by water percolating below the root zone and eventually flowing back to the stream or river through the subsurface. Diverting surface water for irrigation reduces streamflow during the irrigation season but can provide temporary storage of water and supplement streamflow after the snowmelt runoff season. Understanding the timing and quantity of agricultural return flows could help resource managers make informed decisions and adapt to potential changes in water management and availability that could affect irrigation practices. In 2024, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District, began a study to characterize agricultural return flows in the Upper Gunnison River Basin by using endmember mixing analysis and developing a groundwater model. Both approaches require data from multiple sources, but data gaps exist in the East River study reach and other reaches of interest (Ohio Creek, Tomichi Creek, and Cochetopa Creek). The East River Basin, which is the initial focus of the study, has fewer data gaps than the other basins. Data gaps could be addressed by installing additional surface water and groundwater monitoring sites, making regular streamflow measurements on tributaries, and completing tests to characterize local aquifer properties.

Colorado

Potentially toxic elements in wild Agassiz’s desert tortoises: Tissue concentrations and association with disease

Background: Desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) populations have continued to decline due to infectious and other diseases, predation, and habitat alteration. The potential contribution of minerals and heavy metals to tortoise health and susceptibility to disease remains uncertain. Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate the results of elemental analysis of trace minerals and macrominerals in scute keratin, kidney, and liver tissue from ill and dying desert tortoises salvaged for necropsy between 1993 and 2000. Methods: Salvaged tortoises were categorized by age (adult, juvenile), geographic location, and primary disease based on necropsy findings. A subset of tortoises that were injured or killed by vehicular trauma or predation but with no notable pathologic abnormalities were used as controls. A panel of 21 trace minerals and 6 macrominerals was analyzed in scute keratin, kidney, and liver tissue samples by inductively-coupled plasma spectrometry and atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Results: Necropsies were done on 46 tortoises, including 9 juveniles salvaged from 5 regions in the Colorado and Mojave deserts of California. Primary diseases were cutaneous dyskeratosis (n=9), infection/ inflammation (n=8), malnutrition (n=7), mycoplasmosis (n=5), and urolithiasis (n=3); 14 tortoises were classified as controls. Concentrations of elements differed significantly by tissue, age, desert region, and disease (P < 0.05). Tortoises with cutaneous dyskeratosis had significantly higher Se concentrations, primarily in keratin and liver, than tortoises with other diseases (P < 0.001). Juveniles were more likely than adults to have high Pb, Sn, and Zn levels (P < 0.05). All tortoises had detectable levels of more than one potentially toxic heavy metal, including As, Cd, Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sn and V. Conclusions: Potentially toxic elements are frequently found in tissue from tortoises in desert regions of California, with significantly higher concentrations in diseased tortoises. Metal exposure from soils, mining, historic and ongoing military activities, and other human activities could increase susceptibility to disease in desert tortoises.

California

Simulation of groundwater flow in Wake County, North Carolina, 2000 through 2070

In 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey and Wake County Environmental Services began a collaborative study to evaluate groundwater resources and long-term groundwater availability in the county’s fractured-rock groundwater system. Wake County, in central North Carolina, is experiencing rapid population growth, associated land development, and changing water use. Hydrogeologic data including groundwater levels, aquifer testing, borehole fracture flow measurements, water-quality samples, and groundwater age-dating tracers were collected, along with findings from previous investigations, to help inform a conceptual model of the flow system used to develop a modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model (MODFLOW) for simulating historical and future groundwater conditions from 2000 to 2070. Hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity ranges were estimated from 17 slug tests and 21 borehole-flow measurements. Groundwater-quality analytical results from 19 sampling sites indicate that oxidation-reduction (redox) conditions varied within the regolith and bedrock and that minimal evaporation occurred before recharge entered the groundwater system. Age dating revealed mixtures of older and younger water, ranging from the 1940s to the 1990s—indicating variable flow pathways of recharge within permeable bedrock fracture zones. To simplify the complex fractured-rock groundwater system, two layers representing the regolith and the fractured bedrock were used in the MODFLOW model. Model calibration included parameter estimation and provided a reasonable fit to observed groundwater levels and estimated stream base flows. The model forecast scenarios incorporated future climate-model data for two emissions scenarios with land cover change projections to simulate potential impacts to future groundwater levels, recharge, and base flows. Recharge and base flow projections were largely within historical ranges, with no apparent long-term trends, but did indicate a slight downward shift in median values—likely, in part, because of differences in spatial resolution of input climate datasets. Seasonal patterns were consistent with historical data, with projections of possible increases in future winter recharge. Model limitations are discussed, and additional monitoring and model refinement needs are highlighted to support decision making for local groundwater management.

North Carolina

The 17 January 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: A retrospective analysis

The 17 January 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake was a watershed event, with far-reaching societal and scientific impacts. The earthquake, which occurred in the early days of both broadband seismic networks and the Internet, spurred advances in seismic monitoring, real-time systems, and development of data products. Motivated by the 30th anniversary of the earthquake, we present a brief retrospective of the earthquake and its impact, and reconsider both ground motions and the aftershock distribution using modern tools and best-available data. With improvements in instrumentation and analysis methodology, recent earthquakes continue to reveal increasing complexity of ground motions, fault systems, and earthquake ruptures. Even in the absence of data from state-of-the art instrumentation, a retrospective consideration of ground motion data from the Northridge earthquake reveals complexities beyond what could be characterized (and modeled) thirty years ago. Aftershock relocations for both the 1971 Sylmar and 1994 Northridge earthquakes also reveal an updated view of fault complexity. Our study does provide a cautionary tale regarding legacy data sets and research results that are not easily accessible, which can result in discrepancies between catalog data and products from best-available science. We also briefly describe outreach products produced as part of the anniversary commemoration.

California

Ground motions from finite faults with unknown geometry

Earthquake emergency response and loss modeling require accurate models of ground‐motion intensity metrics (IMs), such as those produced by ShakeMap. In the critical minutes and hours after an earthquake, however, knowledge of the earthquake source geometry limits the accuracy of these models, especially in areas where seismic instrumentation is insufficient to constrain the shaking intensity pattern. Previous attempts to overcome this limitation have centered on computing the mean distance metrics from a suite of assumed source geometries. That approach is inadequate with modern ground‐motion models (GMMs) because they typically include terms for the hanging wall effect, depth to top of rupture, and other nonlinear terms. Such approaches also propagate the distance uncertainty through the GMMs and may not properly allocate the additional uncertainty into the between‐ and within‐event components. Here we present Finite‐Fault SIMulation with Mixed Effects Regression (FFSIMMER), a method to address these limitations by computing IM distributions from a suite of rupture realizations that fully accounts for all geometry‐related GMM terms and allows for the separation of the between‐ and within‐event components of the total uncertainty. The accuracy of this method is limited by the available constraints on the source parameters. To address this, FFSIMMER can incorporate constraints based on knowledge of the source, such as the approximate strike and dip based on knowledge of the plate tectonics and focal mechanism of the earthquake. We demonstrate the improvement in accuracy that can be achieved with the 2025 M 7.7 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar), earthquake by incorporating constraints on the range of plausible source parameters.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

REDPy: A Python tool for automated repeating earthquake detection and visualization

Detecting and cataloging seismic events are among the most fundamental tasks in seismology. Many standardized tools for these tasks exist, including the open‐source package repeating earthquake detector in Python (REDPy). REDPy generates an organized catalog of seismic events from continuous waveform data, in which events are automatically separated into groups (“families”) by their waveform similarity through cross‐correlation. REDPy also automatically generates various outputs that allow a user to visualize important trends in the catalog, which may be used in real time or in retrospective analyses to allow rapid identification of interesting features. The code was designed for near‐real‐time volcano monitoring but is applicable across a broad range of use cases in seismology and seismoacoustics. In this article, the utility and performance of REDPy are demonstrated on two highly seismogenic volcanic eruption sequences: the onset of the dome‐building eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington, from 2004 to 2005, and the entirety of the summit caldera collapse sequence of Kīlauea, Hawai‘i, in 2018. This article is meant to be a companion to the documentation of the code; in addition to detailing the basic required inputs, script functionality, and resulting outputs, the reasonings behind several important design decisions are also discussed.

Seismological Research Letters

Characterization and validation of tidally calibrated strains from the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory Strainmeter Array (TABOO-NFO-STAR)

Six horizontal borehole tensor strainmeters (TSM1-6) installed from Fall 2021 to Spring 2022 comprise the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory Strainmeter Array (STAR), providing an unprecedented opportunity to investigate seismic and aseismic deformation from hazardous high- and low-angle normal faults in Italy. Prior to use in tectonic applications, they require in-situ calibration and correction for non-tectonic signals. We tidally calibrate the instruments, characterize the calibration uncertainty, and test the results against environmental and earthquake signals originating from local to teleseismic distances. The STAR sites demonstrably deviate from assumptions common to the standard manufacturer's calibrations, including negative areal coupling at TSM3-6. While the tidally calibrated strains have ~3-56% uncertainty, the calibrated dynamic strains show interstation precision and accuracy to nanostrain levels, and static coseismic offsets in the array footprint are within uncertainty. TSM3 records a complex series of strains that may arise from dynamically triggered near-borehole fracture slip and fluid flow that does not appear to affect its sensitivity to lower strain rate deformation. Future calibration improvement may be afforded with longer stable timeseries, particularly for TSM4. Overall, our analyses demonstrate expanded geodetic capability for detecting deformation in the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory.

Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory

Framework for assessing intranational risk of critical mineral sectors: Case study of India

Recent geopolitical actions regarding the supply of critical minerals have highlighted both the threats posed by countries dominating a critical mineral supply chain, and the potential mitigations served by alternative supplier countries. However, no systematic quantification exists for the intranational factors that determine such threats or mitigations. This study outlines a methodological framework for quantifying the intranational risk profile of critical mineral sectors and compares them with the sector's international potential for leverage. The four intranational factors of concentration, synchronization, private sector involvement, and regulatory obstacles were analyzed across multiple scales in order to determine an intranational risk score that quantifies the resilience or fragility of the critical mineral sector in question. Network analysis was also separately conducted to identify the most important entities operating across all critical mineral sectors. Finally, this study assessed the critical mineral sector's global share of reserves and production to determine an international risk score that quantifies the country's critical mineral sector's leverage potential. A case study of India showed that two critical mineral sectors with high leverage potential, chromite and barite, were respectively intranationally resilient and fragile. Of the remaining sectors with minimal leverage, five sectors such as aluminum were intranationally resilient and may serve as viable mitigation options for future critical mineral supply. Three sectors such as titanium were intranationally fragile, but recent regulatory developments may both decrease intranational risk and increase international risk, potentially making them major critical mineral sectors in the future.

Resources Policy

Structural analysis of brittle-plastic shear zones in the Sangre de Cristo Range, southern Colorado USA: Superposition of Rio Grande rift extension on Laramide contraction

The Sangre de Cristo Range in southern Colorado exposes some of the deepest Cenozoic structural levels in the Rocky Mountain region, including mylonitic shear zones associated with both the Laramide orogeny and Rio Grande rift. We investigated the relation between Laramide contraction and Rio Grande rift extension with detailed geologic mapping, kinematic analysis, and geochronometry in a 50 km 2 area centered on the Independence Mine shear zone (IMSZ). The 15−100-m-thick IMSZ is one of several shallowly to moderately (∼45° ± 20°) W-SW−dipping brittle-plastic shear zones along the western flank of the range. These shear zones display microstructural evidence of initiation as top-NE contractional mylonite zones, consistent with regional Laramide kinematics, which have been pervasively overprinted by shear fabrics indicating top-SW extensional reactivation. Both top-NE and top-SW shear fabrics involve cataclasis and quartz dislocation creep, although top-SW shear is more commonly localized along phyllosilicate-lined shear bands. Shear zones are hosted predominately within Proterozoic gneiss, and contain abundant chlorite and white mica derived from alteration of hornblende and feldspar, which indicates that weakening driven by fluid reactions played an important role in localizing strain. Extensional overprinting appears to be most pervasive along more steeply dipping portions of shear zones and where secondary phyllosilicates form an interconnected weak phase, which suggests that reactivation was primarily controlled by geometry and rheological contrasts inherited from contraction. One top-SW shear zone adjacent to the IMSZ cuts a late Oligocene gabbro stock, and monazite grains synkinematic with top-SW shear in the IMSZ yielded late Oligocene to Early Miocene U-Th-Pb dates that correspond with initiation of the Rio Grande rift. Reactivation of weak reverse faults may represent an important structural control during initial extension in the middle crust, prior to slip along the high-angle Sangre de Cristo normal fault system.

Colorado

Evidence for a biological origin of uranium-rich carbon masses within the Ediacaran Salt Range Formation of Pakistan

Thucholites are unique organic structures found in igneous and sedimentary rocks composed of a U-C-rich interior enclosed by an organic outer shell. Their formation and occurrence have perplexed scientists for over 100 years. Typically, thucholites are sparse in sedimentary rocks but where found in abundance, they may be the result of rapid paleoecological disruptions, e.g., volcanic ashfall. Here, we evaluated thucholites from the Ediacaran Salt Range Formation of the Indus Basin in Pakistan using field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM) and nanoscale secondary ion mass spectroscopy (NanoSIMS) to propose a two-stage mechanism for thucholite development. NanoSIMS results suggest organic matter in thucholite cores formed by biological fractionation (represented by the presence of lighter 13 C/ 12 C and 34 S/ 32 S) while the outer organic mantle formed via radiolysis-induced polymerization. FESEM elemental analysis confirms compositional differences between the two thucholite components (core and mantle), further implying their contrasting origins. Dimensional comparison of thucholite cores and their U-bearing mineral morphologies to ancient and modern U-biomineralized microbes suggests that the thucholite cores formed from metal-biological interactions. The presence of volcanogenic biotite, alkali feldspar, and clay spherules (interpreted as devitrified volcanic glass) with thucholite suggests that the thucholite cores in the Salt Range Formation are biological responses to rapid paleoenvironmental change from volcanic eruption which preserved the fossilized morphologies of Proterozoic microorganisms.

Salt Range

A geographic dataset of rocky reefs habitat areas of particular concern for the United States West Coast

The United States National Marine Fisheries Service determines “essential fish habitat (EFH)” for federally managed species in coordination with regional fishery management councils, considers adverse effects to those habitats, and provides information to further habitat conservation and enhancement. Identifying discrete subsets of EFH as “habitat areas of particular concern (HAPC)” can help focus conservation, management, and research efforts. In 2006, the Pacific Fishery Management Council designated rocky reefs along the United States (U.S.) West Coast as HAPCs for groundfishes because of their ecological significance, sensitivity to human impacts, and relative rarity. To better understand where rocky reefs occur, we (1) located rocky reef areas that were not included in the 2006 rocky reef dataset, and (2) incorporated best available data into a refined geographic dataset that enables visualization. Our update shows that rocky reefs are distributed throughout the U.S. West Coast continental margin, are patchier than previously known, and comprise 8% of the extent of all data inputs. This updated dataset will inform resource management decisions in coastal and marine environments.

California, Oregon, Washington

The potential impact of three-dimensional distributed slip models derived from real-time GNSS data on the performance of the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for slab interface earthquakes

The ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning (EEW) system is designed to warn users of imminent strong ground motion with sufficient time to take protective actions. ShakeAlert currently uses three algorithms to characterize the earthquake source. One estimates the location and magnitude using the first few seconds of the P wave and, while fast, tends to underestimate magnitude for M w 7.0+ earthquakes. A second estimates the location, orientation, length, and corresponding magnitude of a line source using observed peak ground acceleration and contributes primarily to M w 5.5+ earthquakes. The third infers earthquake magnitude from peak ground displacement measured using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data and offers nonsaturating magnitudes for M w 7.0+ earthquakes. Other EEW algorithms exist that infer temporally evolving spatially variable slip on a 3D fault surface from real‐time GNSS data, information that might enable more accurate and timely alerts in the event of large‐magnitude subduction interface earthquakes. Here, we evaluate the potential contribution of one such algorithm, BEFORES ( Minson et al. , 2014 ), to improve ShakeAlert performance through a simulated real‐time implementation of Bayesian evidence‐based fault orientation and real‐time earthquake slip (BEFORES) and other ShakeAlert algorithms using data for eight M w 7.6+ earthquakes. The test results demonstrate that BEFORES can produce well‐constrained and accurate magnitude estimates as soon as or sooner than other EEW algorithms, in turn enabling it to increase the amount of warning time users receive in many cases. However, with a modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) threshold of 3.5, which is commonly used for issuing alerts, BEFORES would tend to alert large geographic regions that did not feel strong shaking (MMI 6+). This effect can be mitigated using a higher alert threshold of MMI 4.5 without negative impact on the amount of warning time obtainable with BEFORES.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Near-surface material and topography generate anomalous high-frequency ground motion amplification in Chugiak, Alaska

An ∼3 km long nodal array oriented approximately east–west was deployed in Chugiak, Alaska, by the U.S. Geological Survey during 2021. The array intersects with the permanent NetQuakes station NP.ARTY, where peak ground acceleration (PGA) value of 1.98 g was recorded during the 2018 M w 7.1 Anchorage, Alaska, earthquake, in sharp contrast to the PGA of ∼0.3 g at a site just 4 km to the west. Seismic data for M w 1.8–4.3 aftershocks from the M w 7.1 event recorded by the nodal array confirm the anomalously large ground motions obtained at NP.ARTY as well as similar amplifications at nodes within ∼1 km to the east. Here, we performed 0–10 Hz 3D finite‐difference simulations, including high‐resolution surface topography, to explore the cause of the unexpectedly large amplification. As expected, the simulations computed with a regional 3D tomography velocity model severely underpredict the 0–10 Hz acceleration records at almost all sites. Adding a near‐surface low‐velocity taper to 300 m depth amplifies the accelerations by up to a factor of 5 and enables a reasonable match between the nodal data and simulations at sites to the west of NP.ARTY. However, this model still underpredicts the spectral energy in the area covered by glacial sediments by up to an order of magnitude. The addition of a till layer using a depth‐dependent shear‐wave velocity ( ⁠⁠ V s ) profile along with a homogeneous, 8 m thick low‐velocity layer with V s = 250 m/s representing the kame terraces improves the fit to data to within a factor of 2 at nodes located on top of the glacial sediments. Our study shows that the anomalously large high‐frequency amplification recorded at and near NP.ARTY can be explained by a combination of topographic effects and near‐surface low‐velocity material with amplification effects on the high‐frequency ground motion by up to about 40% and an order of magnitude, respectively.

Alaska

The geologic history of the Chehalis Forearc Basin, Washington State, USA

The Chehalis basin is located between the Cascade arc and the Coast Range in southwest Washington State. It consists of sedimentary and volcanic rocks deposited throughout the Cenozoic and is underlain by the Siletzia terrane, a thick, large igneous province accreted in the Eocene. Here, we constrain evolution of the Chehalis basin depocenter using isochore maps derived from isostatic gravity anomalies, borehole data, and stratigraphy for several time periods: the Eocene (47.6–36.8 Ma), the Oligocene (36.8–20 Ma), and the Neogene (20–0 Ma). Our results suggest that local subsidence is driven by deformation on faults that bound and intersect the basin. We see northward depocenter migration, interpreted as a shift in deformation from the northwest striking Cedar Creek fault to the west striking Doty fault. We interpret these data in terms of the long-term north-south shortening and clockwise rotation of the Cascadia forearc. During the Eocene, the Cedar Creek fault was preferentially aligned with north-south shortening, but became less active when clockwise rotation brought the Doty fault into east-west alignment with the stress field. Sediment accumulation rates decreased from 196 m/Myr in the Paleogene (∼40–20 Ma) to 27 m/Myr in the Neogene (∼20–0 Ma) as Miocene uplift of the Coast Range limited accommodation space and shifted the depositional environment from marine to fluvial. Our results are consistent with the geologic evolution of the Portland and Tualatin basins to the south and reveal a depositional and structural history uniquely shaped by clockwise rotation of the Cascadia forearc.

Washington

Federal lands greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration in the United States: Estimates for 2005–22

In 2016, the Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior requested that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) produce a publicly available and annually updated database of estimated greenhouse gas emissions associated with the extraction and use of fossil fuels from Federal lands. The first report in this series included emissions estimates from 2005 to 2014 and were reported for 29 States and two offshore areas. Native American and Tribal lands were not included in that analysis. This report recalculates those previous years (2005–14) with updated data and methods and extends the estimates to 2022. Nationwide emissions from fossil fuels produced on Federal lands in 2022 were 1,081.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT CO 2 Eq.) for CO 2 , 33.4 MMT CO 2 Eq. for methane (CH 4 ), and 4.3 MMT CO 2 Eq. for nitrous oxide (N 2 O). Compared to 2005, the 2022 totals represent decreases in emissions for all three greenhouse gases (by 17 percent for CO 2 , 37 percent for CH 4 , and 30 percent for N 2 O). Emissions from fossil fuels produced on Federal lands represent, on average, 21.8 percent of U.S. emissions for CO 2 , 6.1 percent for CH 4 , and 1.3 percent for N 2 O over the 18 years included in this estimate. The trends and relative magnitudes of the greenhouse gas emissions estimated are roughly parallel to the Federal lands fossil fuel production volumes. In 2021, Federal lands of the conterminous United States stored 70,424 MMT CO 2 Eq. in terrestrial ecosystems. Soils stored most of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon (66 percent), followed by live vegetation (25 percent), deadwood (5 percent), and litter (4 percent). Carbon sequestration on Federal lands was highly variable over time, owing primarily to interannual variability in climate and weather, and variability in land use and land cover (LULC) change and disturbances, among these are wildfires and logging. Between 2005 and 2021, Federal lands sequestered an average of 83 MMT CO 2 Eq./yr. By subtracting the cumulative effects of LULC and disturbance-related CO 2 losses to the atmosphere from the total, we estimate that ecosystems at the national level sequestered CO 2 at an annual mean rate of 17 MMT CO 2 Eq./yr in a term called the net ecosystem exchange (NEE). This annual NEE sequestration value represents about 1.4 percent of average fossil fuel emissions over the same period. The USGS estimates presented in this report represent an accounting for the emissions resulting from fossil fuel extraction on Federal lands and the end-use combustion of those fuels, as well as for the sequestration of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems on Federal lands. A combined net CO 2 emissions estimate, which is the difference between the emitted and sequestered CO 2 from both the fossil fuel and ecosystems estimates, provides context for evaluating the greenhouse gas contributions of activities on these lands. The estimates included in this report can provide context for future energy decisions, as well as a basis to track change in the future.

Scientific Investigations Report

Climate-adaptive urban planning: Quantitative assessment of drought impacts and practical strategies for climate-resilient urban green spaces

Urban green spaces (UGSs) are vital for enhancing a city’s resilience and livability; however, their functionality is increasingly jeopardized by drought, particularly in water-scarce regions. This study evaluates drought impact on UGSs in Metropolitan Adelaide, Australia, a representative semi-arid urban system, using satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series data spanning 2000–2020. Vegetation dynamics were analyzed through Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess (STL), standardized anomaly assessment, lagged Pearson correlation, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, and Mann–Kendall trend analysis. To isolate climatically sensitive signals, 29 urban lawn patches were examined separately from mixed urban canopy, given their shallow root systems and direct dependence on surface moisture. NDVI declined by approximately 0.09 units during the Millennium Drought (2001–2009), with summer greenness deficits reaching 24% below the 20-year benchmark. Temperature was the dominant driver of lawn NDVI variability (r = −0.863, R 2 = 74.5%), substantially exceeding the effect of rainfall (r = 0.156, R 2 = 2.4%). El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles modulated vegetation responses, with La Niña years supporting recovery and El Niño years amplifying decline. Post-drought recovery remained incomplete, with NDVI deficits of 8–20% persisting through 2020; full recovery was observed only in 2017, coinciding with the highest recorded summer rainfall. No significant directional trend was detected over the full study period (Mann–Kendall τ = 0.005, p = 0.908). These findings demonstrate that heat, rather than water limitation alone, is the primary driver of vegetation stress in urban systems, highlighting the benefits of integrated management strategies that address both warming and moisture deficits to sustain urban green infrastructure under future climate conditions. We introduce the concept of “urban greenery drought,” referring to a form of vegetation stress in managed urban landscapes where greenness is reduced primarily by elevated temperature and atmospheric demand despite water availability.

Adelaide

Fiber-optic sensing for earthquake hazards research, monitoring and early warning

The use of fiber‐optic sensing systems in seismology has exploded in the past decade. Despite an ever‐growing library of ground‐breaking studies, questions remain about the potential of fiber‐optic sensing technologies as tools for advancing if not revolutionizing earthquake‐hazards‐related research, monitoring, and early warning systems. A working group convened to explore these topics; we comprehensively examined the application of fiber optics in various aspects of earthquake hazards, encompassing earthquake source processes, crustal imaging, data archiving, and technological challenges. There is great potential for fiber‐optic systems to advance earthquake monitoring and understanding, but to fully unlock their capabilities requires continued progress in key areas of research and development, including instrument testing and validation, increased dynamic range for applications focused on larger earthquakes, and continued improvement in subsurface and source imaging methods. A key current stumbling block results from the lack of clear data archiving requirements, and we propose an initial strategy that balances data volume requirements with preserving key data for a broad range of future studies. In addition, we demonstrate the potential for fiber‐optic sensing to impact monitoring efforts by documenting the data completeness in a number of long‐term experiments. Finally, we outline the features of a instrument testing facility that would enable progress toward reliable and standardized distributed acoustic sensing data. Overcoming these current obstacles would facilitate progress in fiber‐optic sensing and unlock its potential application to a broad range of earthquake hazard problems.

California, Oregon, Washington