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USGS2024

Aftershock forecasting

Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the probability of aftershocks can therefore aid decision-making during earthquake response and recovery. Several countries issue authoritative aftershock forecasts. Most aftershock forecasts are based on simple statistical models that were first developed in the 1980s and remain the best available models. We review these statistical models, and the wide-ranging research to advance aftershock forecasting through better statistical, physical, and machine learning methods. Physics-based forecasts based on mainshock stress changes can sometimes match the statistical models in testing, but don’t yet outperform them. Physical models are also hampered by unsolved problems such as the mechanics of dynamic triggering and the influence of background conditions. Initial work on machine learning forecasts shows promise, and new machine learning earthquake catalogs provide an opportunity to advance all types of aftershock forecasts.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences↗
USGS2025

Effect of land cover type on 3D deformation recovery from synthetically deformed high-resolution satellite optical imagery

The limits of detection for earthquake surface deformation in the spatial domain have improved with advances in remote sensing imagery data availability, resolution, and analysis. Sub-pixel correlation and digital elevation model (DEM) differencing from sub-meter, earthquake-spanning satellite optical imagery has enhanced surface rupture mapping and deformation measurements. However, knowledge of measurement accuracy and uncertainty is limited. To address this, we construct orthophotos and digital elevation models (DEMs) from repeat high resolution (∼0.5 m) satellite optical imagery along two sections of the Garlock fault, California with clear fault geomorphology and differing land cover. We deform later sets of DEMs and images with synthetic earthquakes containing both diffuse and discrete horizontal and vertical displacements. Sub-pixel image correlation and DEM differencing demonstrate how vegetation degrades recovered displacement accuracy. In barren land cover, horizontal displacements are detectable to an expected ∼1/10th-pixel size. With shrubs, trees, and grass, detectable displacements increase to >1/2-pixel size, and filtering results by correlation score and using elevation values as input rather than image values improves accuracy. Vertical displacement detection thresholds remain lower in vegetation, at >1-pixel size. Higher slope angles degrade displacement recovery, worsened by vegetation. Diminishing seasonal separation improves accuracy over vegetated regions, though not to the level achieved in barren environments. These results will inform research and operational efforts on the utility of high resolution satellite optical imagery for detecting deformation in varied land cover. Furthermore, they reveal where alternative measurements, such as from LiDAR or radar interferometry, are required to mitigate the effects of vegetation and capture fine-scale crustal deformation.

California↗
USGS2026

Arsenic and isotope concentrations in the lower Platte River valley of eastern Nebraska, early 1970s to 2023

The City of Lincoln, Nebraska, has been monitoring concentrations of arsenic in their source water and evaluating their options for treatment and removal since at least 2002. In 2022, the City of Lincoln, Nebr., with funding assistance from the Nebraska Water Sustainability Fund, began cooperating with the U.S. Geological Survey to examine arsenic concentrations in surface water and groundwater in the lower Platte River valley and the area around City of Lincoln Water System (LWS) well field. Arsenic data collected from the Platte River since 1974 were examined using the “weighted regression on time, discharge, and season” model, which compared the streamflow (also referred to as “discharge”), time of year, and season to estimate concentrations of arsenic. Annual mean arsenic concentrations modeled for more than 49 years at the Platte River at Louisville, Nebr., U.S. Geological Survey streamgage (station 06805500), indicated a significant increasing trend. Arsenic concentrations in the Platte River were seasonal, with the highest concentrations being observed during mid- to late summer. When seasonal patterns and streamflow were combined with arsenic concentrations in the Platte River during low streamflow conditions, groundwater contributions, which can have higher arsenic concentrations, make up a larger portion of the streamflow. Arsenic samples were collected from upstream rivers in 2022 and 2023 and were paired to analyze the arsenic contributions at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage on the Platte River near Ashland, Nebr. (station 06801000), near the City of Lincoln well field. The arsenic concentrations from the streamgage on the Platte River near Ashland, Nebr., location, were higher than the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage on the Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr. (station 06800500), and significantly lower than at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage on the Platte River near Leshara, Nebr.(station 06796500), indicating that the Platte River usually contributes a higher concentration of arsenic than does the Elkhorn River as they join near Ashland, Nebr. During 1991–2023, six groundwater monitoring wells were analyzed to identify trends in arsenic concentrations. Two of the six wells had a positive trend during the 33-year period. One monitoring well did not reveal a long-term trend during this period but showed a trend during 2019–23, correlating to a period when the island in the middle of the Platte River was connected to the east bank of the river when manganese reducing conditions were present and groundwater levels were declining in the well. Across all wells the oxidation and reduction (redox) condition during the time of sampling was assessed. Mixed anoxic and (or) oxic redox condition was the most common redox process and the highest sampled arsenic concentrations in monitoring wells were observed in anoxic conditions driven by manganese reduction. Groundwater arsenic concentrations had seasonal variation around the City of Lincoln well field, with higher arsenic concentrations tending to be further south in comparison to samples collected further north. Isotope samples were collected and analyzed in surface water and groundwater around the LWS well field. The samples indicate that the proportion of surface water present in the LWS production wells can be higher in the spring and lower in the summer. With higher arsenic concentrations observed in the stream water during the summer period, the LWS source water can be affected by these elevated arsenic concentrations even though the proportion of surface water is lower.

Nebraska↗
USGS2025

Evidence for fluid pressurization of fault zones and persistent sensitivity to injection rate beneath the Raton Basin

Subsurface wastewater injection has increased the seismicity rate within the Raton Basin over more than two decades, with the basin-wide injection rate peaked between 2009-2015. To understand the evolution of injection-induced earthquakes, we systematically analyzed 2016-2024 broadband recordings with a machine-learning-based phase picker and constructed a catalog with 95,993 earthquakes (-1≤ M L ≤4.3). We then inverted for full centroid moment tensors (CMT) for 90 M L ≥ 2 events, with a special interest in constraining the non-double-couple components via probabilistic metrics. Both relocations and CMT solutions support basement-rooted normal faults, including graben and half-graben structures. Furthermore, we observe the non-double-couple components that imply elevated pore pressure in the fault zones. An earthquake cluster emerged in the north-central basin in 2023, preceded by ~1-yr of increased injection volume from wells within 15km. Despite a basin-wide decrease in the injection volume, we highlights the persistence of seismicity that remains to sensitive to injection rates within the Raton Basin.

Colorado, New Mexico↗
USGS1997

An optimized network for phosphorus load monitoring for Lake Okeechobee, Florida

Phosphorus load data were evaluated for Lake Okeechobee, Florida, for water years 1982 through 1991. Standard errors for load estimates were computed from available phosphorus concentration and daily discharge data. Components of error were associated with uncertainty in concentration and discharge data and were calculated for existing conditions and for 6 alternative load-monitoring scenarios for each of 48 distinct inflows. Benefit-cost ratios were computed for each alternative monitoring scenario at each site by dividing estimated reductions in load uncertainty by the 5-year average costs of each scenario in 1992 dollars. Absolute and marginal benefit-cost ratios were compared in an iterative optimization scheme to determine the most cost-effective combination of discharge and concentration monitoring scenarios for the lake. If the current (1992) discharge-monitoring network around the lake is maintained, the water-quality sampling at each inflow site twice each year is continued, and the nature of loading remains the same, the standard error of computed mean-annual load is estimated at about 98 metric tons per year compared to an absolute loading rate (inflows and outflows) of 530 metric tons per year. This produces a relative uncertainty of nearly 20 percent. The standard error in load can be reduced to about 20 metric tons per year (4 percent) by adopting an optimized set of monitoring alternatives at a cost of an additional $200,000 per year. The final optimized network prescribes changes to improve both concentration and discharge monitoring. These changes include the addition of intensive sampling with automatic samplers at 11 sites, the initiation of event-based sampling by observers at another 5 sites, the continuation of periodic sampling 12 times per year at 1 site, the installation of acoustic velocity meters to improve discharge gaging at 9 sites, and the improvement of a discharge rating at 1 site.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Quality of groundwater used for domestic supply in the eastern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills, California

Summary More than 2 million Californians rely on groundwater from privately owned domestic wells for drinking-water supply. This report summarizes a water-quality survey of domestic and small-system drinking-water supply wells in the eastern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills where more than 25,000 residents are estimated to use privately owned domestic wells. Study results show that inorganic and organic constituents in groundwater were present above regulatory (maximum contaminant level, MCL) benchmarks for public drinking-water quality in 8 and 3 percent, respectively, of the aquifer area used for domestic drinking-water supply (herein, “domestic groundwater resources”; fig. 1). The only inorganic constituent detected above regulatory benchmarks was arsenic. The only organic constituent exceeding regulatory benchmarks was the fumigant 1,2,3-trichloropropane (1,2,3-TCP). Three additional organic constituents—the disinfection by-product chloroform, the gasoline oxygenate methyl tert -butyl ether (MTBE), and the solvent tetrachloroethene (PCE)—were detected at low concentrations below one-tenth of regulatory benchmarks in 34, 10, and 10 percent of domestic groundwater resources, respectively. Total dissolved solids (TDS), iron, and manganese exceeded non-regulatory aesthetic guidelines for drinking water in 5, 10, and 26 percent of domestic groundwater resources, respectively. Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) were detected in 29 percent of domestic groundwater resources,with 5 percent exceeding the recently enacted (April 2024) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency MCLs. Total coliform and enterococci bacteria were detected in 13 and 8 percent of domestic groundwater resources, respectively. Redox sensitive constituents in this study included arsenic, manganese, nitrate, and iron. In the lower elevation portions of the eastern Sacramento Valley study area, reducing conditions in groundwater aquifers promote elevated arsenic, iron, and manganese, and conversely lower concentrations of nitrate. The presence of the volatile organic compound (VOC) 1,2,3-TCP was related to its past history in select agricultural land uses (on orchards or vineyards) in the Sacramento Valley; however, unlike in the San Joaquin Valley where orchards and vineyards are more common, its detection frequency was low (only detected in one well in this study). Chloroform was frequently detected in this study at low levels. Chloroform is a disinfection byproduct commonly found in domestic wells treated by shock chlorination. The solvent PCE is among the most frequently detected VOCs in groundwater, which is primarily related to its long history of use and its persistence in groundwater in oxic conditions. The gasoline oxygenate MTBE was a contaminant introduced to groundwater through atmospheric exchange when it was used as a fuel additive to decrease smog inducing emissions from vehicles. Its occurrence in groundwater at low levels is expected and makes it a potentially useful tracer of relatively recent recharge water being withdrawn from wells. The PFASs are anthropogenic chemicals with hundreds of uses, and they have been incorporated into many different products, processes, and applications worldwide. Like MTBE, the occurrence of PFASs in groundwater may be in part due to atmospheric exchange, but there are several other pathways that contribute PFASs to the environment.

California↗
USGS1998

Assessment of the hydraulic connection between ground water and the Peace River, west-central Florida

The hydraulic connection between the Peace River and the underlying aquifers along the length of the Peace River from Bartow to Arcadia was assessed to evaluate flow exchanges between these hydrologic systems. Methods included an evaluation of hydrologic and geologic records and seismic-reflection profiles, seepage investigations, and thermal infrared imagery interpretation. Along the upper Peace River, a progressive long-term decline in streamflow has occurred since 1931 due to a lowering of the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer by as much as 60 feet because of intensive ground-water withdrawals for phosphate mining and agriculture. Another effect from lowering the potentiometric surface has been the cessation of flow at several springs located near and within the Peace River channel, including Kissengen Spring, that once averaged a flow of about 19 million gallons a day. The lowering of ground-water head resulted in flow reversals at locations where streamflow enters sinkholes along the streambed and floodplain. Hydrogeologic conditions along the Peace River vary from Bartow to Arcadia. Three distinctive hydrogeologic areas along the Peace River were delineated: (1) the upper Peace River near Bartow, where ground-water recharge occurs; (2) the middle Peace River near Bowling Green, where reversals of hydraulic gradients occur; and (3) the lower Peace River near Arcadia, where ground-water discharge occurs. Seismic-reflection data were used to identify geologic features that could serve as potential conduits for surface-water and ground-water exchange. Depending on the hydrologic regime, this exchange could be recharge of surface water into the aquifer system or discharge of ground water into the stream channel. Geologic features that would provide pathways for water movement were identified in the seismic record; they varied from buried irregular surfaces to large-scale subsidence flexures and vertical fractures or enlarged solution conduits. Generally, the upper Peace River is characterized by a shallow, buried irregular top of rock, numerous observed sinkholes, and subsidence depressions. The downward head gradient provides potential for the Peace River to lose water to the ground-water system. Along the middle Peace River area, head gradients alternate between downward and upward, creating both recharging and discharging ground-water conditions. Seismic records show that buried, laterally continuous reflectors in the lower Peace River pinch out in the middle Peace River streambed. Small springs have been observed along the streambed where these units pinch out. This area corresponds to the region where highest ground-water seepage volumes were measured during this study. Further south, along the lower Peace River, upward head gradients provide conditions for ground-water discharge into the Peace River. Generally, confinement between the surficial aquifer and the confined ground-water systems in this area is better than to the north. However, localized avenues for surface-water and ground-water interactions may exist along discontinuities observed in seismic reflectors associated with large-scale flexures or subsidence features. Ground-water seepage gains or losses along the Peace River were quantified by making three seepage runs during periods of: (1) low base flow, (2) high base flow, and (3) high flow. Low and high base-flow seepage runs were performed along a 74-mile length of the Peace River, between Bartow and Nocatee. Maximum losses of 17.3 cubic feet per second (11.2 million gallons per day) were measured along a 3.2-mile reach of the upper Peace River. The high-flow seepage run was conducted to quantify losses in the Peace River channel and floodplain between Bartow and Fort Meade. Seepage losses calculated during high-flow along a 7.2-mile reach of the Peace River, from the Clear Springs Mine bridge to the Mobil Mine bridge, were approximately 10 percent of the river flow, or 118 cubic feet per second. Calculated seepages along the Peace River in Hardee and De Soto Counties were inconclusive, because most seepages were within the range of discharge measurement error. Two continuous aerial thermal infrared imagery surveys were conducted to locate sites of ground-water discharge along the Peace River. Although temperature and hydrologic conditions were ideal to observe spring flow using thermal infrared imaging techniques, no sources of ground-water discharge were identified using this method. Diffuse ground-water seepage may, however, provide significant ground-water discharge.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Ambient flow and transport in long-screened, sand-packed wells: Insights into cross contamination and wellbore flow

The presence of long-screened wells with a surrounding sand pack can have a major effect on the redistribution of contaminants in groundwater, particularly when the wells are set in low-hydraulic conductivity aquifers. Such redistribution, or cross contamination, can occur through vertical flow and advective transport or by in-well mixing via multiple non-advective transport processes. A multi-method approach, including the use of single borehole dilution tracer (SBDT) logging, was undertaken to estimate vertical transport of trichloroethylene (TCE) in 8 discontinued remedial extraction wells, all constructed with long screens (100 ft, or 30.6 m long) and surrounding sand packs, at Site 25, Edwards Air Force Base, California. The site is within an enclosed drainage basin that is underlain primarily by quartz-monzonite-granitic rocks in various states of weathering. Prior to this study, little information was available on the depths of fracture zones intersecting the wellbores. Results indicate that because of in-well mixing processes, a potential redistribution of TCE of up to 9 g/d per well occurs as a consequence of leaving the wells inactive (unpumped) and unsealed, as measured by SBDT logging. Simulations of flow made with a generic model of the site show that if the wells were to be sealed with well liners, with the intent of reducing vertical TCE transport but the sand pack left intact, TCE transport decreases by 53% overall compared to leaving the wells unlined.

Environmental Earth Sciences↗
USGS1976

Trace elements in some rocks and slag from the Yemen Arab Republic and their bearing on the iron ore near Sa'dah

Thirty-seven samples of rocks, saprolite, laterite, gossan, and slag were collected in the Yemen Arab Republic during June-July 1975 when field work was conducted to refine an interpretation of the regional geology made from LANDSAT-1 images by M. J. Grolier. These samples we reanalyzed in the laboratories of the U. S. Geological Survey, and the results were interpreted for use in programs of economic development as a guide for the evaluation of mineral resources in the Yemen Arab Republic. The work was undertaken as part of the program of the U. S. Agency for International Development with the cooperation of the Mineral and Petroleum Authority, Ministry of Economy, Yemen Arab Republic.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1998

Stream habitat characteristics at selected sites in the Georgia-Florida coastal plain

Habitat characterization is part of a multidisciplinary approach to water-quality assessment implemented by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Habitat data were collected in the Georgia-Florida Coastal Plain study unit at 24 sites during 1993-95. Data were collected for habitat characteristics at three spatial scales: basin, segment, and reach. Basin data include physiography, land resource provinces, and land use, providing a description of the environmental setting at each site. Segment data include length, gradient, and sinuosity. A Kendall correlation analysis performed on segment characteristics and the log-of-basin area showed a correlation between segment gradient and the log-of-basin area and a correlation between sinuosity and segment length. Reach data consist of field-collected measurements of both instream and riparian habitats. Sand and detritus were the most common channel-bed substrates among the sampled sites. Measurements of channel width, water depth, and bank width and height were used to create cross-sectional profiles of each sampled area. Elevations of selected durations plotted on cross sections illustrated the percentage of time that the banks were inundated at each site. Sites were divided into two groups based on duration of bank inundation (less than or equal to 1 percent and greater than 1 percent). Bank woody vegetation was also sampled and a clustering algorithm known as Two-Way INdicator SPecies ANalysis (TWINSPAN) was used to analyze these data. TWINSPAN divided the sites into two groups based on their vegetation composition. A statistical comparison of the two types of site groups (duration of bank inundation and vegetation) was performed. The significant association between these groups was consistent with the hypothesis that inundation frequency affected riparian vegetation.

Florida, Georgia↗
USGS2024

Using a time-of-travel sampling approach to quantify per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) stream loading and source inputs in a mixed-source, urban catchment

Understanding per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) mass distribution in surface and groundwater systems can support source prioritization, load reduction, and water management. Thirteen sites within an urban catchment were sampled utilizing a time-of-travel sampling approach to minimize the influence of subdaily fluctuations in mass from PFAS point sources and to quantify PFAS and ancillary chemical loads from various PFAS sources. A larger increase in perfluoroalkyl sulfonate (PFSA) loads (8 to 11 μg/s, up to 618%) than in perfluoroalkyl carboxylate (PFCA) loads (no change to 3.4 μg/s, up to 122%) was observed at sites below tributaries influenced by military bases with known groundwater discharge. Point discharges from two sewage treatment plants (STPs) resulted in increases in PFCA and PFSA loads that were similar (6 and 10 μg/s respectively) below the first STP and greater for PFCA compared to PFSA loads (23 and 13 μg/s respectively) below the second STP. Overall, percent increases in total PFAS load ranged from 20 to 277% for military base inputs and 44 to 77% for STP inputs. A focus catchment that represents only 14% (76.9 km 2 ) of the drainage area at the most downstream site (544 km 2 ) accounted for about 70% of PFSA and 40% of PFCA loads observed at the most downstream site. Results show that by using a time-of-travel sampling approach in mixed, urban settings with several PFAS sources, it is possible to quantify stream loads from individual PFAS sources, thereby improving source attribution and providing actionable data for water-resource managers.

ACS ES&T Water↗
USGS2026

Diverging mineral chemistry of iron and nickel throughout Earth’s changing redox conditions reveals foundation for their evolution as protein cofactors

Iron (Fe) and nickel (Ni) were both foundational to early metabolism, yet their biological trajectories diverged as Earth’s surface redox state changed. Here, we integrate mineral chemistry network analysis, protein metal-site coordination-sphere analysis, and curated redox comparisons to test how geochemistry and metalloprotein architecture co-evolved. Mineral network analyses show broader electronegativity variation and network diversity for Fe-bearing minerals through time relative to Ni-bearing minerals. In structural analyses of protein metal centers in a combined Fe/Ni protein structure set, it is shown that Fe- and Ni-associated environments differ in amino-acid composition, hydropathy structure, and cysteine representation. The greater chemical diversity and electronegativity variation in Fe minerals mirror the higher redox and structural versatility of Fe-binding proteins. The presence of Fe in a broader range of mineral and protein environments demonstrates the chemical adaptability of the metal, from the anoxic Archean to oxidative Earth surface conditions following the Great Oxidation Event. Iron, with its broad redox potential range in Fe-oxidoreductases, has a central role in both anaerobic and aerobic metabolisms. Nickel, by contrast, is less widespread in biology. Today, Ni is predominantly employed in deeply branching anaerobic pathways and by proteins with narrower redox potential ranges. Our results show that evolutionary processes, constrained by metal chemistry, habitually utilize Fe as a redox generalist while retaining Ni in specialized roles. The divergent paths of Ni and Fe, from rocks to proteins, demonstrate the intimate relationship between planetary geochemistry and metabolic origins on Earth and suggest that Fe/Ni geochemistry may inform habitability assessments in extraterrestrial environments when interpreted within specific planetary environmental contexts.

Life↗
USGS2025

Groundwater-storage change in the north Phoenix aquifer, Arizona, 2020–23

The city of Phoenix, Arizona, relies primarily on surface water for municipal water supply. The city also maintains wells to withdraw groundwater, particularly in times of drought and reduced surface-water supply, and to recharge groundwater when excess surface water is available. As of 2023, withdrawals from the aquifer in the northeastern part of the city are a small volume of water, less than 3,000 acre-feet in most years. Each year a similar volume of water is recharged through injection wells. The withdrawal wells are permitted to produce in total more than 20,000 acre-feet per year; increased pumping could lead to future groundwater-storage declines. To better understand groundwater-storage change in the north Phoenix aquifer, a repeat microgravity monitoring network was established in 2020. Measurements of changes in Earth’s gravity provide a direct, non-invasive measurement of subsurface mass change. Groundwater-storage changes were small during the 2020–23 study period, consistent with the relatively small volumes of pumping and recharge. Groundwater levels measured in monitoring wells were stable or increased slightly during this period, although the number of monitoring wells within the area of the gravity monitoring network is sparse. In total, about 15,000 acre-feet of water were pumped and 31,000 acre-feet recharged through injection in the north Phoenix aquifer during the 2020–22 period. Within the monitored area, groundwater storage increased by a small amount, about 1,000 acre-feet, in 2020, and decreased by a larger amount, about 6,000 acre-feet, each year in 2021 and 2022. Storage decreased at 89 of 102 stations from 2020 to 2023. Groundwater-storage decreases greater than the volume of net pumping indicate down-gradient subflow from the aquifer is greater than recharge plus incoming subflow, drying of the unsaturated zone resulting from decreased land-surface recharge, or both. At present (2023), the aquifer appears able to store and supply the relatively small amounts of water needed without excessive drawdown or harmful effects, such as land subsidence and surface inundation. If pumping or recharge increases in the future, the established repeat microgravity network is well suited to capture the spatial extent and magnitude of groundwater-storage changes in the aquifer.

Arizona↗
USGS1996

Technique for estimating magnitude and frequency of peak flows in Maryland

A convenient and reliable technique for estimating flood magnitudes is required for effective flood-plain management and for the efficient design of bridges, culverts, embankments, and flood-protection structures. Methods are presented for estimating peak-flow magnitudes of selected frequencies, ranging from 2 to 500 years, for all nontidal drainage basins in Maryland. The methods were developed by generalized least-squares regression techniques using data from 219 gaged basins in and near Maryland. The State is divided into five hydrologic regions: the Appalachian Plateaus and Allegheny Ridges region, the Blue Ridge and Great Valley region, the Piedmont region, the Western Coastal Plain region, and the Eastern Coastal Plain region. These regions correspond to the physiographic provinces of the State, with the exceptions that (1) the Coastal Plain Province is divided into two hydrologic regions, and (2) there is no distinct hydrologic region corresponding to the Valley and Ridge Province as it is divided into its constituent Allegheny Ridges and Great Valley subdivisions. Sets of equations for calculating peak discharges based on physical basin characteristics are provided for each of the regions. Based on the peak-flow equations, methods for estimating peak flows are presented for ungaged and gaged streams in Maryland. The methods and equations are supported by generalized least-squares analysis of basin and flood-frequency characteristics data from 219 drainage basins in and near Maryland. estimates for each of the five regions are calculated using combinations of the fol-lowing basin characteristics: drainage area, forest cover, basin relief, carbonate rock coverage, storage, and runoff-curve number. Drainage area contributes to the estimate in all five study regions. Carbonate rock coverage is used only in the Blue Ridge and Great Valley region. Storage and runoff-curve number are used solely in the Eastern Coastal Plain region. All other basin characteristics are used in two or more regions. Standard errors of estimate for the regression equations range from 19 to 31 percent in the Appalachian Plateaus and Allegheny Ridges region, 34 to 47 percent in the Blue Ridge and Great Valley region, 33 to 48 percent in the Piedmont region, 45 to 64 percent in the Western Coastal Plain region, and 36 to 42 percent in the Eastern Coastal Plain region.

Maryland↗
USGS2025

Characterization of stream water quality and groundwater levels in the Central Pine Barrens region, Suffolk County, New York, 2017–23

The area locally known as the “Central Pine Barrens” region, located in Suffolk County, New York, contains most of Long Island’s preserved and undeveloped land. This region overlays an aquifer system that provides potable groundwater for residents of Suffolk County. Between 2017 and 2023, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Central Pine Barrens Joint Planning & Policy Commission and the Town of Brookhaven, monitored groundwater levels and stream water quality in this region. Groundwater levels were measured monthly at five wells and continuously (15-minute intervals) at a sixth well. Water quality was monitored at five locations in the Carmans River and at two locations in the Peconic River, and samples were analyzed for major ions, trace elements, nutrients, pharmaceuticals, and pesticides. The major ion compositions at the sites were mainly sodium-chloride type waters, and compositions varied the most at the furthest upstream sites in both streams. Concentrations above aquatic-life criteria thresholds also occurred most frequently at the furthest upstream sites. The seasonal patterns of nutrient loads and concentrations varied between the Carmans and Peconic Rivers. Several organic compounds including pharmaceuticals, domestic use products, and pesticides were detected at low concentrations in both streams. Metformin was the most frequently detected pharmaceutical compound, and herbicides were the most frequently detected pesticide class. Water-quality conditions influenced by anthropogenic contributions are a result of current and historical land use, and these contributions include onsite wastewater disposal systems, commercial or domestic fertilizers and pesticides, and urban or industrial contaminants in road runoff. This study characterizes and improves understanding of the current hydrologic conditions in the Central Pine Barrens region and the study findings can help inform the development of plans to manage, protect, and restore water resources.

New York↗
USGS2026

Stepovers and beyond: Structural control of The Geysers geothermal system and the broader Clear Lake region

Fault geometry exerts a first-order control on geothermal systems by governing stress localization, fracture development, and permeability, yet in complex fault networks or broader shear zones, the relative influence of individual geometric features is often difficult to resolve. In the northern California Coast Ranges, The Geysers geothermal field is commonly interpreted to occur within a releasing stepover, although no single, clearly defined stepover is identified in published studies. To investigate the structural controls on The Geysers and the broader Clear Lake region, a two-dimensional elastic boundary element model is developed to evaluate spatial patterns of dilational strain associated with progressively more complete fault geometries. Model results show that dilation in the region is not controlled by a single structure but instead reflects the combined effects of multiple interacting fault elements. Three primary controls are identified: (1) opposing bends in the regional strike-slip fault system, including a releasing bend along the Maacama fault; (2) the southern fault tip of the Collayomi fault, which generates a prominent dilational lobe beneath the southern Geysers; and (3) a releasing stepover between the Collayomi fault and the Geyser Peak–Mercuryville–Big Sulphur Creek fault system, inferred to collectively behave as a right-lateral shear zone bounding the western margin of The Geysers. Predicted dilational strain magnitudes are sufficient to localize permeability between faults. These results highlight that incorporating complete fault networks and bedrock geological mapping can enhance geothermal assessments and provide a transferable framework for evaluating structurally controlled permeability in tectonically active regions.

California↗
USGS2021

Geology, mineralogy, and cassiterite geochronology of the Ayawilca Zn-Pb-Ag-In-Sn-Cu deposit, Pasco, Peru

The Ayawilca deposit in Pasco, Peru, represents the most significant recent base-metal discovery in the central Andes and one of the largest undeveloped In resources globally. As of 2018, it hosts an 11.7 Mt indicated resource grading 6.9% Zn, 0.16% Pb, 15 g/t Ag, and 84 g/t In, an additional 45.0 Mt inferred resource grading 5.6% Zn, 0.23% Pb, 17 g/t Ag, and 67 g/t In, and a separate Sn-Cu-Ag inferred resource of 14.5 Mt grading 0.63% Sn, 0.21% Cu, and 18 g/t Ag. Newly obtained U–Pb dates for cassiterite by LA-ICP-MS (22.77 ± 0.41 and 23.05 ± 2.06 Ma) assign the Ayawilca deposit to the Miocene polymetallic belt of central Peru. The polymetallic mineralization occurs as up to 70-m-thick mantos hosted by carbonate rocks of the Late Triassic to Early Jurassic Pucará Group, and subordinately, as steeply dipping veins hosted by rocks of the Pucará Group and overlying Cretaceous sandstones-siltstones of the Goyllarisquizga Group. Relicts of a distal retrograde magnesian skarn and cassiterite (stage pre-A) were identified in the deepest mantos. The volumetrically most important mineralization at Ayawilca comprises a low-sulfidation assemblage (stage A) with quartz, pyrrhotite, arsenopyrite, chalcopyrite, Fe-rich sphalerite, and traces of stannite and herzenbergite. Stage A sphalerite records progressive Fe depletion, from 33 to 10 mol% FeS, which is compatible with the observed transition from low- to a subsequent intermediate-sulfidation stage (B) marked by the crystallization of abundant pyrite and marcasite. Finally, during a later intermediate-sulfidation stage (C) sphalerite (up to 11 mol% FeS), galena, native bismuth, Cu-Pb-Ag sulfosalts, siderite, Mn-Fe carbonates, kaolinite, dickite, and sericite were deposited. This paragenetic evolution shows striking similarities with that at the Cerro de Pasco Cordilleran-type polymetallic deposit, even if at Ayawilca stage C did not reach high-sulfidation conditions. The occurrence of an early retrograde skarn assemblage suggests that the manto bodies at Ayawilca formed at the transition between distal skarn and skarn-free (Cordilleran-type) carbonate-replacement mineralization. Mineral assemblages define a T- f S 2 evolutionary path close to the pyrrhotite-pyrite boundary. Buffering of hydrothermal fluids by underlying Devonian carbonaceous phyllites of the Excelsior Group imposed highly reduced conditions during stage A mineralization (log f O 2 < − 30 atm). The low f O 2 favored efficient Sn mobility during stages pre-A and A, in contrast to other known ore deposits in the polymetallic belt of central Peru, in which the occurrence of Sn minerals is minor. Subsequent cooling, progressive sealing of vein walls, and decreasing buffering potential of the host rocks promoted the shift from low- (stage A) to intermediate-sulfidation (stages B and C) states. LA-ICP-MS analyses reveal significant In contents in Fe-rich sphalerite (up to 1.7 wt%), stannite (up to 1908 ppm), and chalcopyrite (up to 1185 ppm). The highest In content was found in stage A sphalerite that precipitated along with chalcopyrite and stannite, thus pointing to the early, low-sulfidation assemblage as prospective for this high-tech metal in similar mineral systems. Indium was likely incorporated into the sphalerite crystal lattice via Cu + + In 3+ ↔ 2 Zn 2+ and (Sn, Ge) 4+ + (Ga, In) 3+ + (Cu + Ag) + ↔ 4 Zn 2+ coupled substitutions. Indium incorporation mechanisms into the stannite and chalcopyrite crystal lattices remain unclear.

Pasco↗
USGS2026

Repeated coral bleaching events have eroded reef accretion potential in the Florida Keys

Coral bleaching is now the primary driver of coral-reef degradation globally, threatening the persistence of coral-reef functions and the invaluable ecosystem services they support. The Florida Keys have been impacted by four severe, regional-scale coral-bleaching events, which occurred in 1997–1998, 2005, 2014–2015, and 2023. Our aim in this study was to quantify the effects of those thermal-stress events on the persistence of coral-reef structures. We leveraged long-term coral-reef monitoring data to quantify the impacts of coral bleaching on coral cover, carbonate production, and reef-accretion potential throughout the Florida Keys from 1996–2024. Our study indicates that coral bleaching drove significant declines of reef-building corals, which successively diminished regional-scale reef-accretion potential (from 1.65 ± 0.33 mm y -1 in 1996) and culminated with a regional-scale transition to net reef erosion (-0.12 ± 0.08 mm y -1 ) following the 2023 event. Coral bleaching was the primary driver of declining reef-building capacity, with the cumulative impacts of the four coral-bleaching events accounting for >75% of total declines since 1996. The 1997–1998 event alone drove ~50% of overall declines, largely due to losses of the shallow-water ecosystem engineer, Acropora palmata . More moderate impacts of thermal stress on regional reef-accretion potential in 2005 (6%) and 2014–2015 (9%) could lend some support to the hypothesis that the remaining corals were more thermally tolerant; however, the unprecedented thermal stress event in 2023 caused widespread coral-bleaching and bleaching-related mortality, and caused an additional 12% of the total decline in reef-accretion potential. Stony-coral tissue loss disease accounted for an additional 6% of the decline, with the remaining 19% unexplained. Coral bleaching has already dramatically reshaped the structure and function of coral reefs in the Florida Keys over the last three decades. With the high likelihood that thermal stress will accelerate moving forward, the persistence of Florida’s essential coral-reef functions and services is uncertain.

Florida↗