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Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios

Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable Document Format file.

Techniques and Methods↗

MT3D-USGS version 1: A U.S. Geological Survey release of MT3DMS updated with new and expanded transport capabilities for use with MODFLOW

MT3D-USGS, a U.S. Geological Survey updated release of the groundwater solute transport code MT3DMS, includes new transport modeling capabilities to accommodate flow terms calculated by MODFLOW packages that were previously unsupported by MT3DMS and to provide greater flexibility in the simulation of solute transport and reactive solute transport. Unsaturated-zone transport and transport within streams and lakes, including solute exchange with connected groundwater, are among the new capabilities included in the MT3D-USGS code. MT3D-USGS also includes the capability to route a solute through dry cells that may occur in the Newton-Raphson formulation of MODFLOW (that is, MODFLOW-NWT). New chemical reaction Package options include the ability to simulate inter-species reactions and parent-daughter chain reactions. A new pump-and-treat recirculation package enables the simulation of dynamic recirculation with or without treatment for combinations of wells that are represented in the flow model, mimicking the above-ground treatment of extracted water. A reformulation of the treatment of transient mass storage improves conservation of mass and yields solutions for better agreement with analytical benchmarks. Several additional features of MT3D-USGS are (1) the separate specification of the partitioning coefficient ( K d ) within mobile and immobile domains; (2) the capability to assign prescribed concentrations to the top-most active layer; (3) the change in mass storage owing to the change in water volume now appears as its own budget item in the global mass balance summary; (4) the ability to ignore cross-dispersion terms; (5) the definition of Hydrocarbon Spill-Source Package (HSS) mass loading zones using regular and irregular polygons, in addition to the currently supported circular zones; and (6) the ability to specify an absolute minimum thickness rather than the default percent minimum thickness in dry-cell circumstances. Benchmark problems that implement the new features and packages test the accuracy of new code through comparison to analytical benchmarks, as well as to solutions from other published codes. The input file structure for MT3D-USGS adheres to MT3DMS conventions for backward compatibility: the new capabilities and packages described herein are readily invoked by adding three-letter package name acronyms to the name file or by setting input flags as needed. Memory is managed in MT3D-USGS using FORTRAN modules in order to simplify code development and expansion.

Techniques and Methods↗

One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model: A MODFLOW based conjunctive-use simulation software

The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Modular Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW-2005) is a computer program that simulates groundwater flow by using finite differences. The MODFLOW-2005 framework uses a modular design that allows for the easy development and incorporation of new features called processes and packages that work with or modify inputs to the groundwater-flow equation. A process solves a flow equation or set of equations. For example, the central part of MODFLOW is the groundwater-flow process that solves the groundwater-flow equation; the surface-water routing process is an additional process that solves the surface-water flow equation. Packages are code related to the groundwater-flow process. For example, the subsidence package modifies the groundwater-flow process by including aquifer compaction effects on flow. With the development of new packages and processes, the MODFLOW-2005 base framework diverged into multiple independent versions designed for specific simulation needs. This divergence limited each independent MODFLOW release to its specific purpose, so that there was no longer a single, comprehensive, general-purpose hydraulic-simulation framework. The MODFLOW One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM, also informally known as OneWater) is an integrated hydrologic flow model that combines multiple MODFLOW-2005 variants in one cohesive simulation software; changes were made to enable multiple capabilities in one code. This fusion of the MODFLOW-2005 versions resulted in a simulation software that can be used to address and analyze a wide class of conjunctive-use, water-management, water-food-security, and climate-crop-water scenarios. As a second core version of MODFLOW-2005, MF-OWHM maintains backward compatibility with existing MODFLOW-2005 versions, with features that include the following: Process-based simulation. Saturated groundwater flow (three-dimensional). Surface-water flow (one- and two-dimensional). Stream and river flow. Lake and reservoir storage. Landscape simulation and irrigated agriculture. Land-use and crop simulation. Root uptake of groundwater. Actual evapotranspiration. Estimated irrigation demand. Reservoir operations. Aquifer compaction and subsidence by vertical model-grid deformation. Seawater intrusion by a sharp-interface assumption. Karst-aquifer and fractured-bedrock flow. Turbulent and laminar-pipe network flow. Unsaturated groundwater flow (one-dimensional). Internal linkages among the processes that couple hydraulic head, flow, and deformation. Redesigned code for faster simulation, increased user-input options, easier model updates, and more robust error reporting than in previous models. MF-OWHM is a MODFLOW-2005 based integrated hydrologic model that can simulate and analyze varying environmental conditions to allow for the evaluation of management options from many components of human and natural water movement through a physically based, supply and demand framework. The term “integrated,” in the context of this report, refers to the tight coupling of groundwater flow, surface-water flow, landscape processes, aquifer compaction and subsidence, reservoir operations, and conduit (karst) flow. Another benefit of this integrated hydrologic model is that models developed to run by MODFLOW-2005, MODFLOW-NWT, MODFLOW-CFP, or MODFLOW-FMP can also be simulated with MF-OWHM. At the time of this report’s publication, MF-OWHM version 2 (MF-OWHM2) does not include a direct internal simulation of snowmelt, advanced mountainous watershed rainfall-runoff simulation, detailed shallow soil-moisture accounting, or atmospheric moisture content. Atmospheric moisture may be accounted for indirectly by, optionally, specifying a pan-evaporation rate, reference evapotranspiration, and precipitation. These features are not included to ensure that simulation runtime remains short enough to enable the use of automated methods of calibrating model parameters to field observations, which typically require many simulation model runs. The MF-OWHM approach is to include as much detail as possible to simulate hydrological processes, providing the simulation runtimes remain reasonable enough to allow for robust parameter estimation and model calibration. To represent both natural and human-influenced flow, MF-OWHM integrates physically based flow processes derived from MODFLOW-2005 in a supply and demand framework. From this integration, the physically based movement of groundwater, surface water, imported water, and precipitation serve as supply to meet consumptive demands associated with irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture, natural vegetation, and urban water uses. Water consumption is determined by balancing the available water supply with water demand, leading to the concept of a demand-driven, supply-constrained simulation. The MF-OWHM Supply-and-Demand Framework is especially useful for the analysis of agricultural water use, where there are often few data available to describe changes in land-use through time, such as crop type and distribution, and the associated changes in groundwater pumpage. This framework attempts to satisfy each land-use water demand with available water supplies—that is, groundwater uptake, precipitation, and irrigation. An option provided in MF-OWHM2 is to automatically increase groundwater pumping for irrigation, which often is unknown, by the calculated residual between demand and the other available sources of supply. From large- to small-scale applications, the physically based supply and demand framework provides key capabilities for simulating and analyzing historical, current, and future conjunctive-use of surface water and groundwater. To achieve the physically based supply and demand framework, the MODFLOW-2005 standard of no inter-package and -process communication was relaxed for MF-OWHM2. Traditional MODFLOW simulation models required that all packages and processes interact through the groundwater-flow equation or by removing the water flow from the simulation domain. For example, the MODFLOW-2005 representation of a groundwater well extracts water from the groundwater-flow equation (by subtraction) and removes it from the simulation domain. This feature is available in the MF-OWHM framework, but options have been added to allow the specification of a use or destination of pumped groundwater within the model domain, for example, it can be used for irrigation, managed aquifer recharge, or return-flow to streams.

Techniques and Methods↗

PHAST--a program for simulating ground-water flow, solute transport, and multicomponent geochemical reactions

The computer program PHAST simulates multi-component, reactive solute transport in three-dimensional saturated ground-water flow systems. PHAST is a versatile ground-water flow and solute-transport simulator with capabilities to model a wide range of equilibrium and kinetic geochemical reactions. The flow and transport calculations are based on a modified version of HST3D that is restricted to constant fluid density and constant temperature. The geochemical reactions are simulated with the geochemical model PHREEQC, which is embedded in PHAST. PHAST is applicable to the study of natural and contaminated ground-water systems at a variety of scales ranging from laboratory experiments to local and regional field scales. PHAST can be used in studies of migration of nutrients, inorganic and organic contaminants, and radionuclides; in projects such as aquifer storage and recovery or engineered remediation; and in investigations of the natural rock-water interactions in aquifers. PHAST is not appropriate for unsaturated-zone flow, multiphase flow, density-dependent flow, or waters with high ionic strengths. A variety of boundary conditions are available in PHAST to simulate flow and transport, including specified-head, flux, and leaky conditions, as well as the special cases of rivers and wells. Chemical reactions in PHAST include (1) homogeneous equilibria using an ion-association thermodynamic model; (2) heterogeneous equilibria between the aqueous solution and minerals, gases, surface complexation sites, ion exchange sites, and solid solutions; and (3) kinetic reactions with rates that are a function of solution composition. The aqueous model (elements, chemical reactions, and equilibrium constants), minerals, gases, exchangers, surfaces, and rate expressions may be defined or modified by the user. A number of options are available to save results of simulations to output files. The data may be saved in three formats: a format suitable for viewing with a text editor; a format suitable for exporting to spreadsheets and post-processing programs; or in Hierarchical Data Format (HDF), which is a compressed binary format. Data in the HDF file can be visualized on Windows computers with the program Model Viewer and extracted with the utility program PHASTHDF; both programs are distributed with PHAST. Operator splitting of the flow, transport, and geochemical equations is used to separate the three processes into three sequential calculations. No iterations between transport and reaction calculations are implemented. A three-dimensional Cartesian coordinate system and finite-difference techniques are used for the spatial and temporal discretization of the flow and transport equations. The non-linear chemical equilibrium equations are solved by a Newton-Raphson method, and the kinetic reaction equations are solved by a Runge-Kutta or an implicit method for integrating ordinary differential equations. The PHAST simulator may require large amounts of memory and long Central Processing Unit (CPU) times. To reduce the long CPU times, a parallel version of PHAST has been developed that runs on a multiprocessor computer or on a collection of computers that are networked. The parallel version requires Message Passing Interface, which is currently (2004) freely available. The parallel version is effective in reducing simulation times. This report documents the use of the PHAST simulator, including running the simulator, preparing the input files, selecting the output files, and visualizing the results. It also presents four examples that verify the numerical method and demonstrate the capabilities of the simulator. PHAST requires three input files. Only the flow and transport file is described in detail in this report. The other two files, the chemistry data file and the database file, are identical to PHREEQC files and the detailed description of these files is found in the PHREEQC documentation.

Techniques and Methods↗

Section 3. The SPARROW Surface Water-Quality Model—Theory, application and user documentation

SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) is a watershed modeling technique for relating water-quality measurements made at a network of monitoring stations to attributes of the watersheds containing the stations. The core of the model consists of a nonlinear regression equation describing the non-conservative transport of contaminants from point and diffuse sources on land to rivers and through the stream and river network. The model predicts contaminant flux, concentration, and yield in streams and has been used to evaluate alternative hypotheses about the important contaminant sources and watershed properties that control transport over large spatial scales. This report provides documentation for the SPARROW modeling technique and computer software to guide users in constructing and applying basic SPARROW models. The documentation gives details of the SPARROW software, including the input data and installation requirements, and guidance in the specification, calibration, and application of basic SPARROW models, as well as descriptions of the model output and its interpretation. The documentation is intended for both researchers and water-resource managers with interest in using the results of existing models and developing and applying new SPARROW models. The documentation of the model is presented in two parts. Part 1 provides a theoretical and practical introduction to SPARROW modeling techniques, which includes a discussion of the objectives, conceptual attributes, and model infrastructure of SPARROW. Part 1 also includes background on the commonly used model specifications and the methods for estimating and evaluating parameters, evaluating model fit, and generating water-quality predictions and measures of uncertainty. Part 2 provides a user's guide to SPARROW, which includes a discussion of the software architecture and details of the model input requirements and output files, graphs, and maps. The text documentation and computer software are available on the Web at http://usgs.er.gov/sparrow/sparrow-mod.html .

Techniques and Methods↗

Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD), user’s manual, version 1

The Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD) uses the framework of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Modular Modeling System to simulate fluxes of water and solutes through watersheds. WEBMOD divides watersheds into model response units (MRU) where fluxes and reactions are simulated for the following eight hillslope reservoir types: canopy; snowpack; ponding on impervious surfaces; O-horizon; two reservoirs in the unsaturated zone, which represent preferential flow and matrix flow; and two reservoirs in the saturated zone, which also represent preferential flow and matrix flow. The reservoir representing ponding on impervious surfaces, currently not functional (2016), will be implemented once the model is applied to urban areas. MRUs discharge to one or more stream reservoirs that flow to the outlet of the watershed. Hydrologic fluxes in the watershed are simulated by modules derived from the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System; the National Weather Service Hydro-17 snow model; and a topography-driven hydrologic model (TOPMODEL). Modifications to the standard TOPMODEL include the addition of heterogeneous vertical infiltration rates; irrigation; lateral and vertical preferential flows through the unsaturated zone; pipe flow draining the saturated zone; gains and losses to regional aquifer systems; and the option to simulate baseflow discharge by using an exponential, parabolic, or linear decrease in transmissivity. PHREEQC, an aqueous geochemical model, is incorporated to simulate chemical reactions as waters evaporate, mix, and react within the various reservoirs of the model. The reactions that can be specified for a reservoir include equilibrium reactions among water; minerals; surfaces; exchangers; and kinetic reactions such as kinetic mineral dissolution or precipitation, biologically mediated reactions, and radioactive decay. WEBMOD also simulates variations in the concentrations of the stable isotopes deuterium and oxygen-18 as a result of varying inputs, mixing, and evaporation. This manual describes the WEBMOD input and output files, along with the algorithms and procedures used to simulate the hydrology and water quality in a watershed. Examples are presented that demonstrate hydrologic processes, weathering reactions, and isotopic evolution in an alpine watershed and the effect of irrigation on water flows and salinity in an intensively farmed agricultural area.

Techniques and Methods↗

PDEPTH—A computer program for the geophysical interpretation of magnetic and gravity profiles through Fourier filtering, source-depth analysis, and forward modeling

PDEPTH is an interactive, graphical computer program used to construct interpreted geological source models for observed potential-field geophysical profile data. The current version of PDEPTH has been adapted to the Windows platform from an earlier DOS-based version. The input total-field magnetic anomaly and vertical gravity anomaly profiles can be filtered to produce derivative products such as reduced-to-pole magnetic profiles, pseudogravity profiles, pseudomagnetic profiles, and upward-or-downward-continued profiles. A variety of source-location methods can be applied to the original and filtered profiles to estimate (and display on a cross section) the locations and physical properties of contacts, sheet edges, horizontal line sources, point sources, and interface surfaces. Two-and-a-half-dimensional source bodies having polygonal cross sections can be constructed using a mouse and keyboard. These bodies can then be adjusted until the calculated gravity and magnetic fields of the source bodies are close to the observed profiles. Auxiliary information such as the topographic surface, bathymetric surface, seismic basement, and geologic contact locations can be displayed on the cross section using optional input files. Test data files, used to demonstrate the source location methods in the report, and several utility programs are included.

Techniques and Methods↗

Analytical solutions for one-, two-, and three-dimensional solute transport in ground-water systems with uniform flow

Analytical solutions to the advective-dispersive solute-transport equation are useful in predicting the fate of solutes in ground water. Analytical solutions compiled from available literature or derived by the author are presented for a variety of boundary condition types and solute-source configurations in one-, two-, and three-dimensional systems having uniform ground-water flow. A set of user-oriented computer programs was created to evaluate these solutions and to display the results in tabular and computer-graphics format. These programs incorporate many features that enhance their accuracy, ease of use, and versatility. Documentation for the programs describes their operation and required input data, and presents the results of sample problems. Derivations of selected solutions, source codes for the computer programs, and samples of program input and output also are included.

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations↗

User's guide to SEAWAT; a computer program for simulation of three-dimensional variable-density ground-water flow

This report documents a computer program (SEAWAT) that simulates variable-density, transient, ground-water flow in three dimensions. The source code for SEAWAT was developed by combining MODFLOW and MT3DMS into a single program that solves the coupled flow and solute-transport equations. The SEAWAT code follows a modular structure, and thus, new capabilities can be added with only minor modifications to the main program. SEAWAT reads and writes standard MODFLOW and MT3DMS data sets, although some extra input may be required for some SEAWAT simulations. This means that many of the existing pre- and post-processors can be used to create input data sets and analyze simulation results. Users familiar with MODFLOW and MT3DMS should have little difficulty applying SEAWAT to problems of variable-density ground-water flow.

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations↗

Finite difference model for aquifer simulation in two dimensions with results of numerical experiments

The model will simulate ground-water flow in an artesian aquifer, a water-table aquifer, or a combined artesian and water-table aquifer. The aquifer may be heterogeneous and anisotropic and have irregular boundaries. The source term in the flow equation may include well discharge, constant recharge, leakage from confining beds in which the effects of storage are considered, and evapotranspiration as a linear function of depth to water. The theoretical development includes presentation of the appropriate flow equations and derivation of the finite-difference approximations (written for a variable grid). The documentation emphasizes the numerical techniques that can be used for solving the simultaneous equations and describes the results of numerical experiments using these techniques. Of the three numerical techniques available in the model, the strongly implicit procedure, in general, requires less computer time and has fewer numerical difficulties than do the iterative alternating direction implicit procedure and line successive overrelaxation (which includes a two-dimensional correction procedure to accelerate convergence). The documentation includes a flow chart, program listing, an example simulation, and sections on designing an aquifer model and requirements for data input. It illustrates how model results can be presented on the line printer and pen plotters with a program that utilizes the graphical display software available from the Geological Survey Computer Center Division. In addition the model includes options for reading input data from a disk and writing intermediate results on a disk.

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations↗

Effects of a Cattail Wetland on Water Quality of Irondequoit Creek near Rochester, New York

A 6-year (1990-96) study of the Ellison Park wetland, a 423-acre, predominantly cattail ( Typha glauca ) marsh in Monroe County, N.Y., was conducted to document the effect that this wetland has on the water quality of Irondequoit Creek, which flows through it. Irondequoit Creek drains 151 square miles of mostly urban and suburban land and is the main tributary to Irondequoit Bay on Lake Ontario. The wetland was a sink for total phosphorus and total suspended solids (28 and 47 percent removal efficiencies, respectively, over the 6-year study period). Sedimentation and vegetative filtration appear to be the primary mechanisms for the decrease in loads of these constituents. Total nitrogen loads were decreased slightly by the wetland; removal efficiencies for ammonia-plus-organic nitrogen and nitrate-plus-nitrite were 6 and 3 percent, respectively. The proportions of total phosphorus and total nitrogen constituents were altered by the wetland. Orthophosphate and ammonia nitrogen were generated within the wetland and represented 12 percent of the total phosphorus output load and 1.8 percent of total nitrogen output load, respectively. Conservative chemicals, such as chloride and sulfate, were littleaffected by the wetland. Concentrations of zinc, lead, and cadmium showed statistically significant decreases, which are attributed to sedimentation and filtration of sediment and organic matter to which these elements adsorb. Sediment samples from open-water depositional areas in the wetland contained high concentrations of (1) trace metals, including barium, manganese, strontium, zinc (each of which exceeded 200 parts per million), as well as chromium, copper, lead, and vanadium, and (2) some polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Persistent organochlorine pesticides, such as chlordane, dieldrin, DDT and its degradation products (DDD and DDE), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB's), also were detected, but concentrations of these compounds were within the ranges often found in depositional environments in highly urbanized areas. Cattail shoots attained a maximum height of 350 centimeters, a density of more than 30 shoots per square meter, and total biomass of more than 5,600 grams per square meter (46 percent of which was in above-ground tissues during the growing season). Nitrogen and potassium were three times more abundant in above-ground tissues (2.4 and 1.5 percent by dry weight, respectively) than in below-ground tissues (0.8 and 0.5 percent, respectively). Concentrations of phosphorus, molybdenum, and manganese in above-ground tissues were similar to those in below-ground tissues, but the concentrations of all other constituents were considerably higher in below-ground tissues. Concentrations of several elements exceeded those typically found in natural wetlands; these included manganese (417 ppm, parts per million) and sodium (3,600 ppm) in above-ground tissues, and aluminum (1,540 ppm), iron (15,400 ppm), manganese (433 ppm), and sodium (10,000 ppm) in below-ground tissues. Large quantities of nutrients are assimilated by wetland vegetation during the growing season, but neither tissue production nor microbial metabolic processes appeared to play a significant role in the observed patterns of surface-water chemical input-to-output relations on a seasonal basis. Presumably, internal cycling of nutrients sequestered in the sediments and detritus, combined with a summer increase in microbially mediated chemical transformations, obscured the effects of vegetative assimilation during the summer on surface-water chemical loads. Additionally, the natural confinement of most flows within the banks of Irondequoit Creek, which resulted in passage of stormwater through the wetland with little dispersion or detention in the cattail and backwater areas, diminished the capability of the wetland to improve water quality. Additional factors that probably affected the chemical-removal efficiency of the wetland included chemical inflow loading rates, storage and release mechanisms of the sediments (sedimentation, adsorption, filtration, precipitaton, dissolution, and resuspension), and accretion and burial of organic matter. Measurements of chlorophyll_ a concentrations, and calculations of potential phosphorus concentrations, since the 1970’s indicate an improvement in the trophic state of Irondequoit Bay. Estimated average annual loads (1990-96) of selected constituents entering Irondequoit Bay indicate that, since 1980, the loads of all major forms of nitrogen have decreased, chloride loads have increased, and sulfate loads have changed little. Inputs of total phosphorus and suspended solids to the wetland have increased since 1980, possibly as a result of increased erosion by stormflows from an increasingly developed watershed. The wetland decreases the loads of these constituents, but the trends of these loads entering Irondequoit Bay cannot be reliably defined because the removal efficiencies during the two earlier study periods (1980–81 and 1984–88) are known.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Factors affecting nutrient trends in major rivers of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Trends in nutrient loads and flow-adjusted concentrations in the major rivers entering Chesapeake Bay were computed on the basis of water-quality data collected between 1985 and 1998 at 29 monitoring stations in the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, York, Patuxent, and Choptank River Basins. Two computer models-the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model (WSM) and the U.S. Geological Survey's 'Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes' (SPARROW) Model-were used to help explain the major factors affecting the trends. Results from WSM simulations provided information on temporal changes in contributions from major nutrient sources, and results from SPARROW model simulations provided spatial detail on the distribution of nutrient yields in these basins. Additional data on nutrient sources, basin characteristics, implementation of management practices, and ground-water inputs to surface water were analyzed to help explain the trends. The major factors affecting the trends were changes in nutrient sources and natural variations in streamflow. The dominant source of nitrogen and phosphorus from 1985 to 1998 in six of the seven tributary basins to Chesapeake Bay was determined to be agriculture. Because of the predominance of agricultural inputs, changes in agricultural nutrient sources such as manure and fertilizer, combined with decreases in agricultural acreage and implementation of best management practices (BMPs), had the greatest impact on the trends in flow-adjusted nutrient concentrations. Urban acreage and population, however, were noted to be increasing throughout the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, and as a result, delivered loads of nutrients from urban areas increased during the study period. Overall, agricultural nutrient management, in combination with load decreases from point sources due to facility upgrades and the phosphate detergent ban, led to downward trends in flow-adjusted nutrient concentrations atmany of the monitoring stations in the watershed. The loads of nutrients, however, were not reduced significantly at most of the monitoring stations. This is due primarily to higher streamflow in the latter years of the monitoring period, which led to higher loading in those years. Results of this study indicate a need for more detailed information on BMP effectiveness under a full range of hydrologic conditions and in different areas of the watershed; an internally consistent fertilizer data set; greater consideration of the effects of watershed processes on nutrient transport; a refinement of current modeling efforts; and an expansion of the non-tidal monitoring network in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

Vertical gradients in water chemistry in the central High Plains aquifer, southwestern Kansas and Oklahoma panhandle, 1999

The central High Plains aquifer is the primary source of water for domestic, industrial, and irrigation uses in parts of Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. Water-level declines of more than 100 feet in some areas of the aquifer have increased the demand for water deeper in the aquifer. The maximum saturated thickness of the aquifer ranged from 500 to 600 feet in 1999. As the demand for deeper water increases, it becomes increasingly important for resource managers to understand how the quality of water in the aquifer changes with depth. In 1998?99, 18 monitoring wells at nine sites in southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle were completed at various depths in the central High Plains aquifer, and one monitoring well was completed in sediments of Permian age underlying the aquifer. Water samples were collected once from each well in 1999 to measure vertical gradients in water chemistry in the aquifer. Tritium concentrations measured in ground water indicate that water samples collected in the upper 30 feet of the aquifer were generally recharged within the last 50 years, whereas all of the water samples collected at depths more than 30 feet below the water table were recharged more than 50 years ago. Dissolved oxygen was present throughout the aquifer, with concentrations ranging from 1.7 to 8.4 mg/L. Water in the central High Plains aquifer was predominantly a calcium-bicarbonate type that exhibited little variability in concentrations of dissolved solids with depth (290 to 642 mg/L). Exceptions occurred in some areas where there had been upward movement of mineralized water from underlying sediments of Permian age and areas where there had been downward movement of mineralized Arkansas River water to the aquifer. Calcium-sulfate and sodium-chloride waters dominated and concentrations of dissolved solids were elevated (862 to 4,030 mg/L) near the base of the aquifer in the areas of upward leakage. Dissolution of gypsum or anhydrite and halite in sediments of Permian age by ground water was the likely source of calcium, sulfate, sodium, and chloride in those waters. Calcium-sodium-sulfate waters dominated, and concentrations of dissolved solids were as large as 4,916 mg/L near the water table in the area of downward leakage. Dissolution of minerals in sedimentary deposits of marine origin in upstream areas of the Arkansas River drainage were the likely sources of calcium, sodium, and sulfate in those waters. Nitrate was detected throughout the aquifer and the background concentration was estimated to be 2.45 mg/L as N. The largest nitrate concentrations (8.28, 22, and 54.4 mg/L as N) occurred in recently recharged water collected adjacent to irrigated fields. Three pesticides (atrazine, metolachlor, simazine) and five pesticide degradation products (alachlor ethanesulfonic acid, alachlor oxanilic acid, deethylatrazine, metolachlor ethanesulfonic acid, metolachlor oxanilic acid) were detected in recently recharged water from six water-table wells. Five of the six wells were adjacent to irrigated fields. These data indicate that concentrations of nitrate and pesticides increased over time in some areas of the aquifer as a result of agricultural activities. Results from this study indicate that vertical gradients in water chemistry existed in the central High Plains aquifer. The chemical gradients resulted from chemical inputs to the aquifer from underlying sediments of Permian age, from the Arkansas River, and from agricultural activities. In areas where those chemical inputs occurred, water quality in the aquifer was impaired and may not have been suitable for some intended uses.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Water-quality conditions during low flow in the lower Youghiogheny River basin, Pennsylvania, October 5-7, 1998

In October 1998, a chemical synoptic survey was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory, in the Lower Youghiogheny River Basin in Pennsylvania to give a snapshot of present (1998) water quality during low-flow conditions. Water samples from 38 sites—12 mainstem sites, 22 tributaries, and 4 mine discharges that discharge directly to the Youghiogheny River—were used to identify sources of contaminants from mining operations. Specific conductance, water temperature, pH, and dissolved oxygen were measured in the field at each site and concentrations of major ions and trace elements were measured in the laboratory.z Unaccounted for gains and losses in streamflow were measured during the study. Unaccounted for losses in streamflow might be attributed to water loss through streambed fractures. Extensive mine tunnels are present in the basin and loss of water to these tunnels seems likely. Unaccounted for gains in streamflow may be from unmeasured tributaries or surface seeps, but most of the gains are suspected to come from artesian flow through fractures in the streambed from underground mine pools. Influent flows of rust-colored water were noted in some river sections. The pH values for all the samples collected during this survey were above 5.8, and most (33 of 38 samples) were above 7.0. Samples from the four mine-discharge sites also had pH values between 6.3 and 6.7. The lowest pH (5.8) was in a tributary, Galley Run. All 38 sampling sites had net alkalinity. The alkalinity load in the Youghiogheny River increased between Connellsville and McKeesport from 35 to 79 tons per day. Above Smithton, the measured alkalinity load in the Lower Youghiogheny River agreed well with the estimated alkalinity load. Below Smithton, measured alkalinity loads in the Lower Youghiogheny River are greater than calculated loads, resulting in unaccounted for gains in alkalinity. These gains are believed to be from seeps in the streambed. Approximately one-third of the load of total alkalinity in the Youghiogheny River at McKeesport is attributed to Sewickley Creek, which contributes 14 tons per day. Sulfate concentrations in the Youghiogheny River steadily increase from 33 milligrams per liter at Connellsville to 77 milligrams per liter near McKeesport. The measured concentrations of sulfate exceeded Pennsylvania water-quality standards at four tributary sites (Galley Run, Hickman Run, Sewickley Creek, and Gillespie Run) and all four mine-discharge sites but not at any main-stem sites. A large increase in sulfate load between West Newton and Sutersville can be attributed almost entirely to the contribution from Sewickley Creek (49 tons per day). Approximately 25 percent of the load measured between Connellsville and McKeesport is unaccounted for. These gains are believed to be from seeps in the streambed from underground mine pools. Similar patterns also were observed for loads of sodium, calcium, and magnesium. Unmeasured inputs from mine drainage are believed to be the source of these loads. Elevated concentrations (above background levels) of chemicals associated with drainage from coal-mining operations were measured in samples from tributaries, especially from Galley Run, Gillespie Run, and Sewickley Creek, and from the mine-discharge sites. The synoptic survey conducted for this study was successful in identifying generalized reaches of the Youghiogheny River where unaccounted for loads of constituents associated with mining activities are entering the river. However, the survey was not able to pinpoint the location of these loads. Remote-sensing techniques, such as thermal infrared imaging by the National Energy Technology Laboratory, could be useful for determining the precise locations of these inputs.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Water budget for and nitrogen loads to Northeast Creek, Bar Harbor, Maine

The potential for nutrient enrichment to coastal estuaries on Mt. Desert Island, Maine, may affect the health of these important ecosystems at Acadia National Park. Inputs of water and nitrogen entering one of these coastal estuaries, Northeast Creek, and adjacent wetlands on Mt. Desert Island were quantified in a recent study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service. Streamflow and concentra-tions of nitrogen species in the four perennial streams entering the wetland/estuary system were measured monthly for 18 months to estimate loads and develop a water budget. Old Mill Brook was instrumented with a continuous-recording stream-flow gage; the MOVE.1 record-extension technique was used with this and several other nearby continuous gages to estimate daily surface-water inflow to the wetland. Inflow from ungaged basins was estimated from the unit-area yield calculated from data obtained from the gaged basins. Precipitation data collected at the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) site at Acadia National Park Headquarters and the Acadia National Park weather station were used to calculate atmospheric inputs. Evapotranspiration from the wetland was calculated using Fennessey and Vogel?s regionalized multivariate regression model of Penman-Montieth evapotranspiration. Geologic data collected in the field and taken from published geologic maps indicate that ground water probably does not contribute significantly to the water budget of this wetland system. Surface-water outflow from the wetland was not calculated because of the tidal nature of the outlet of the wetland and the difficulties associated with measuring flow in a tidal stream.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Simulation of a proposed emergency outlet from Devils Lake, North Dakota

From 1993 to 2001, Devils Lake rose more than 25 feet, flooding farmland, roads, and structures around the lake and causing more than $400 million in damages in the Devils Lake Basin. In July 2001, the level of Devils Lake was at 1,448.0 feet above sea level 1 , which was the highest lake level in more than 160 years. The lake could continue to rise to several feet above its natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,459 feet above sea level) in future years, causing extensive additional flooding in the basin and, in the event of an uncontrolled natural spill, downstream in the Red River of the North Basin as well. The outlet simulation model described in this report was developed to determine the potential effects of various outlet alternatives on the future lake levels and water quality of Devils Lake. Lake levels of Devils Lake are controlled largely by precipitation on the lake surface, evaporation from the lake surface, and surface inflow. For this study, a monthly water-balance model was developed to compute the change in total volume of Devils Lake, and a regression model was used to estimate monthly water-balance data on the basis of limited recorded data. Estimated coefficients for the regression model indicated fitted precipitation on the lake surface was greater than measured precipitation in most months, fitted evaporation from the lake surface was less than estimated evaporation in most months, and ungaged inflow was about 2 percent of gaged inflow in most months. Dissolved sulfate was considered to be the key water-quality constituent for evaluating the effects of a proposed outlet on downstream water quality. Because large differences in sulfate concentrations existed among the various bays of Devils Lake, monthly water-balance data were used to develop detailed water and sulfate mass-balance models to compute changes in sulfate load for each of six major storage compartments in response to precipitation, evaporation, inflow, and outflow from each compartment. The storage compartments--five for Devils Lake and one for Stump Lake--were connected by bridge openings, culverts, or natural channels that restricted mixing between compartments. A numerical algorithm was developed to calculate inflow and outflow from each compartment. Sulfate loads for the storage compartments first were calculated using the assumptions that no interaction occurred between the bottom sediments and the water column and no wind- or buoyancy-induced mixing occurred between compartments. However, because the fitted sulfate loads did not agree with the estimated sulfate loads, which were obtained from recorded sulfate concentrations, components were added to the sulfate mass-balance model to account for the flux of sulfate between bottom sediments and the lake and for mixing between storage compartments. Mixing between compartments can occur during periods of open water because of wind and during periods of ice cover because of water-density differences between compartments. Sulfate loads calculated using the sulfate mass-balance model with sediment interaction and mixing between compartments closely matched sulfate loads computed from historical concentrations. The water and sulfate mass-balance models were used to calculate potential future lake levels and sulfate concentrations for Devils Lake and Stump Lake given potential future values of monthly precipitation, evaporation, and inflow. Potential future inputs were generated using a scenario approach and a stochastic approach. In the scenario approach, historical values of precipitation, evaporation, and inflow were repeated in the future for a particular sequence of historical years. In the stochastic approach, a statistical time-series model was developed to randomly generate potential future inputs. The scenario approach was used to evaluate the effectiveness of various outlet alternatives, and the stochastic approach was used to evaluate the hydrologic and water-quality effects of the potential outlet alternatives that were selected on the basis of the scenario analysis. Given potential future lake levels and sulfate concentrations generated using either the scenario or stochastic approach and potential future ambient flows and sulfate concentrations for the Sheyenne River receiving waters, daily outlet discharges could be calculated for virtually any outlet alternative. For the scenario approach, future ambient flows and sulfate concentrations for the Sheyenne River were generated using the same sequence of years used for generating water-balance data for Devils Lake. For the stochastic approach, a procedure was developed for generating daily Sheyenne River flows and sulfate concentrations that were "in-phase" with the generated water-balance data for Devils Lake. Simulation results for the scenario approach indicated that neither of the West Bay outlet alternatives provided effective flood-damage reduction without exceeding downstream water-quality constraints. However, both Pelican Lake outlet alternatives provided significant flood-damage reduction with only minor downstream water-quality changes. The most effective alternative for controlling rising lake levels was a Pelican Lake outlet with a 480-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. However, this plan is costly because of the high pump capacity and the requirement of a control structure on Highway 19 to control the level of Pelican Lake. A less costly, though less effective for flood-damage reduction, plan is a Pelican Lake outlet with a 300-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. The plan is less costly because the pump capacity is smaller and because the control structure on Highway 19 is not required. The less costly Pelican Lake alternative with a 450-milligramper- liter downstream sulfate constraint rather than a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint was identified by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as the preferred alternative for detailed design and engineering analysis. Simulation results for the stochastic approach indicated that the geologic history of lake-level fluctuations of Devils Lake for the past 2,500 years was consistent with a climatic history that consisted of two climate states--a wet state, similar to conditions during 1980-99, and a normal state, similar to conditions during 1950-78. The transition times between the wet and normal climatic periods occurred randomly. The average duration of the wet climatic periods was 20 years, and the average duration of the normal climatic periods was 120 years. The stochastic approach was used to generate 10,000 independent sequences of lake levels and sulfate concentrations for Devils Lake for water years 2001-50. Each trace began with the same starting conditions, and the duration of the current wet cycle was generated randomly for each trace. Each trace was generated for the baseline (natural) condition and for the Pelican Lake outlet with a 300-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 450-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. The outlet significantly lowered the probabilities of future lake-level increases within the next 50 years and did not substantially increase the probabilities of reaching low lake levels or poor water-quality conditions during the same period.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Effects of wastewater and combined sewer overflows on water quality in the Blue River basin, Kansas City, Missouri and Kansas, July 1998-October 2000

Samples were collected from 16 base-flow events and a minimum of 10 stormflow events between July 1998 and October 2000 to characterize the effects of wastewater and combined sewer overflows on water quality in the Blue River Basin, Kansas City, Missouri and Kansas. Waterquality effects were determined by analysis of nutrients, chloride, chemical and biochemical oxygen demand, and suspended sediment samples from three streams (Blue River, Brush Creek, and Indian Creek) in the basin as well as the determination of a suite of compounds known to be indicative of wastewater including antioxidants, caffeine, detergent metabolites, antimicrobials, and selected over-the-counter and prescription pharmaceuticals. Constituent loads were determined for both hydrologic regimes and a measure of the relative water-quality impact of selected stream reaches on the Blue River and Brush Creek was developed. Genetic fingerprint patterns of Escherichia coli bacteria from selected stream samples were compared to a data base of knownsource patterns to determine possible sources of bacteria. Water quality in the basin was affected by wastewater during both base flows and stormflows; however, there were two distinct sources that contributed to these effects. In the Blue River and Indian Creek, the nearly continuous discharge of treated wastewater effluent was the primary source of nutrients, wastewater indicator compounds, and pharmaceutical compounds detected in stream samples. Wastewater inputs into Brush Creek were largely the result of intermittent stormflow events that triggered the overflow of combined storm and sanitary sewers, and the subsequent discharge of untreated wastewater into the creek. A portion of the sediment, organic matter, and associated constituents from these events were trapped by a series of impoundments constructed along Brush Creek where they likely continued to affect water quality during base flow. Concentrations and loads of most wastewater constituents in the Blue River and Indian Creek were significantly greater than in Brush Creek, especially during base flow. However, wastewater indicator compound concentrations were sometimes greater in some Brush Creek stormflow samples. Selected stream reaches along the mid-portion of Brush Creek showed higher effects relative to other sites, primarily because these sites were in impounded reaches with the greatest density of wastewater inputs, or had relatively small drainage areas.

Kansas, Missouri↗

Water-quality and aquatic-community characteristics of selected reaches of the St. Croix River, Minnesota and Wisconsin, 2000

Synoptic sampling was used to determine chemical and biological characteristics of the St. Croix River within a study reach that extended from near Danbury, Wisconsin to the confluence with the Mississippi River at Prescott, Wisconsin. The study was conducted August 7- September 25, 2000 during summer low flow. Dissolved-residue concentrations were found to increase gradually as the river flows downstream, with an abrupt increase downstream of the confluence with the Sunrise River that was primarily attributed to an increase in calcium and magnesium. Dissolved residue concentrations were further augmented by increased yields of chloride and sulfate in the part of the St. Croix Basin between Nevers Dam near St. Croix Falls, Wisconsin and Marine on St. Croix, Minnesota. Nearly all of the nitrogen in transport was in the form of nitrate and organic nitrogen. Organic nitrogen, mainly in particulate form, accounted for most of the gain in total nitrogen load within the study reach. Nitrogen loading to the mainstem indicated relatively uniform nitrogen inputs from the Clam River, Kettle River, and Snake River watersheds. The rate of nitrogen load accrual increased downstream of the confluence with the Sunrise River and in the subreach extending from Nevers Dam through St. Croix Falls to Franconia, Minnesota. Nitrogen load also increased, primarily because of nitrate input, in the part of Lake St. Croix downstream of the confluence with the Kinnickinnic River. Total phosphorus concentrations and loads reflected variations in the amount of particulate phosphorus in transport. Phosphorus loading increased in the part of the St. Croix River that includes Danbury and the confluences of the Yellow River and Clam River. Phosphorus loading also increased downstream of the confluence with the Sunrise River, but the greatest load increase occurred between Nevers Dam and Franconia. Phosphorus load decreased substantially as the river flowed through the pooled reach of Lake St. Croix downstream of Stillwater. Suspended-sediment concentrations were low, ranging from 4.0 to 36 milligrams per liter. The small amount of sediment in transport was reflected in turbidity measurements that ranged from 0.5 to 3.6 Nephelometry Turbidity Units, and transparency tube measurements that were greater than 60 centimeters at all sites. Biological measures of resource quality change in the St. Croix River along its course from Danbury to Prescott. Changes in the biological indicators of resource quality (fish and invertebrate community composition) are most notable just upstream and downstream of the dam at St. Croix Falls, Wisconsin. Aquatic communities in the upper St. Croix River, from near Danbury to near Rush City, Minnesota, indicate minimal physical and chemical disturbance as evidenced by relatively high taxa richness and greater proportions of taxa intolerant to physical and chemical disturbance. In contrast, aquatic communities downstream of the Sunrise River to Marine on St. Croix indicate both physical and chemical disturbance. Resource monitoring, consisting of short-term diagnostic studies, may be needed in parts of the St. Croix River mainstem and tributaries where results from this study indicate constituent loading is greatest and where the aquatic community composition indicates disturbance. Longer-term trend monitoring may be needed to detect physical, chemical and biological responses to natural processes and human activities in the St. Croix River Basin.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗