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Scenario-Based Decision Analysis: Integrated scenario planning and structured decision making for resource management under climate change

Managing resources under climate change is a high-stakes and daunting task, especially because climate change and associated complex biophysical responses engender sustained directional changes as well as abrupt transformations. This environmental non-stationarity challenges assumptions and expectations among scientists, managers, rights holders, and stakeholders. These challenges are anything but straightforward – a high degree of uncertainty impedes our ability to predict the environmental trajectory with confidence, and affected resources often span multiple governance jurisdictions or are subject to competing management objectives. Fortunately, tools exist to help grapple with such challenges. Two commonly used tools are scenario planning (SP) and structured decision making (SDM). SP is a well-established approach for assessing system response and facilitating decision making under a wide range of conditions that are uncertain and uncontrollable, such as those associated with adapting to climate change. However, SP lacks a defined structure for establishing objectives, quantifying tradeoffs, and evaluating the performance of candidate decisions to meet those objectives. SDM, on the other hand, is rooted in decision theory and focuses on explicit (often quantitative) assessment of the expected outcomes of choosing among a set of decision alternatives. SDM has been criticized for an inability to account for surprises and for imposing an overly narrow framing of problems to increase tractability. We discuss the strengths and limitations of SDM and SP as experienced through their application in various resource-management contexts, and then propose a new generalized framework – Scenario-Based Decision Analysis (SBDA) – that integrates these complementary approaches. SBDA structures resource management problems and solutions while considering uncertainties and surprises to inform resource management decision making.

Biological Conservation↗

Environmental factors influence lesser scaup migration chronology and population monitoring

Identifying environmental metrics specific to lesser scaup ( Aythya affinis ; scaup) spring migration chronology may help inform development of conservation, management and population monitoring. Our objective was to determine how environmental conditions influence spring migration of lesser scaup to assess the effectiveness of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey in accurately estimating scaup populations. We first compared peak timing of mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and scaup migration from weekly ground surveys in North Dakota, USA because the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey is designed to capture annual mallard migration. As predicted, we detected that peak timing of scaup and mallard migrations differed in 25 of 36 years investigated (1980–2010). We marked scaup with satellite transmitters ( n = 78; 7,403 locations) at Long Point, Lake Erie, Ontario, Canada; Pool 19 of the Mississippi River, Iowa and Illinois, USA; and Presque Isle Bay, Lake Erie, Pennsylvania, USA. We tested the assumption that our marked scaup were representative of the continental population using the traditional survey area by comparing timing of migration of marked birds and scaup counted in the North Dakota Game and Fish Department survey. We detected a strong positive correlation between marked scaup and the survey data, which indicated that marked scaup were representative of the population. We subsequently used our validated sample of marked scaup to investigate the effects of annual variation in temperature, precipitation, and ice cover on spring migration chronology in the traditional and eastern survey areas of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey, 2005–2010. We evaluated competing environmental models to explain variation in timing and rate of scaup migration at large-scale and local levels. Spring migration of scaup occurred earlier and faster during springs with warmer temperatures and greater precipitation, variables known to influence energy budgets and wetland availability. Our results suggest that surveys designed to index abundance of breeding mallards is imprecise for estimating scaup abundance, and inaccurate at estimating breeding population size by survey stratum.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Participatory modelling to support evaluation of management actions for recreational fisheries

Participatory modelling (PM) is a collaborative problem-solving approach that involves shared learning through the development of a model or multiple models with a group of participants and a modelling team. PM has the potential to be used more frequently to address recreational fisheries problems. We focus on our experience working with small groups (usually <40 people) to address natural resource issues. This chapter focuses on building a PM team and the communications that occur before, during, and after a PM process. The participants usually include people like recreational and commercial fishers, members of environmental non-governmental organizations, and fishery managers or other decision makers. Ground rules, expectations, and end goals should be established early in the PM process. We emphasize that benefits arise from including the participants in the development and validation of the models in a process that includes feedback between the modellers and participants. Although participants are ideally involved in all stages, their inclusion during model development and testing can be critical for buy-in within the group. When the modellers listen carefully to participant concerns and respond to those concerns during model development, we have experienced favourable process outcomes such as improved participant engagement and building of trust.

Book chapter↗

Approaches to highly parameterized inversion: PEST++ Version 5, a software suite for parameter estimation, uncertainty analysis, management optimization and sensitivity analysis

PEST++ Version 5 extends and enhances the functionality of the PEST++ Version 3 software suite, providing environmental modeling practitioners access to updated Version 3 tools as well as new tools to support decision making with environmental models. Version 5 of PEST++ includes tools for global sensitivity analysis (PESTPP-SEN); least-squares parameter estimation with integrated first-order, second-moment parameter and forecast uncertainty estimation (PESTPP-GLM); an iterative, localized ensemble smoother (PESTPP-IES); and a tool for management optimization under uncertainty (PESTPP-OPT). Additionally, all PEST++ Version 5 tools have a built-in fault-tolerant, multithreaded parallel run manager and are model independent, using the same protocol as the widely used PEST software suite. PEST++ Version 5 is consistent with PEST++ Version 3 conventions and design philosophy. The software’s emphasis continues to target efficient and optimized algorithms that have proven beneficial in decision-support settings and can accommodate large, highly parameterized problems. Expanded and new capabilities are now available to express uncertainty using Monte Carlo and analytical uncertainty approaches and allow evaluation of thousands to millions of parameters. New management optimization capabilities in Version 5 also allow environmental models to be used to answer management questions using multiple societal constraints in a risk-based framework. The PEST++ Version 5 software suite can be compiled for Microsoft Windows® and Unix-based operating systems such as Apple and Linux®; the source code is available with a Microsoft Visual Studio® 2019 solution; and CMake support for all three operating system is also provided. PEST++ Version 5 continues to build a foundation for an open-source framework capable of producing model-independent, robust, and efficient decision-support tools for large environmental models. The functionality of each of the PEST++ tools are demonstrated on a simple example problem. Implications of decisions used when using the PEST++ suite tools are also discussed.

Techniques and Methods↗

Interactions among invasive plants: Lessons from Hawai‘i

Most ecosystems have multiple-plant invaders rather than single-plant invaders, yet ecological studies and management actions focus largely on single invader species. There is a need for general principles regarding invader interactions across varying environmental conditions, so that secondary invasions can be anticipated and managers can allocate resources toward pretreatment or postremoval actions. By reviewing removal experiments conducted in three Hawaiian ecosystems (a dry tropical forest, a seasonally dry mesic forest, and a lowland wet forest), we evaluate the roles environmental harshness, priority effects, productivity potential, and species interactions have in influencing secondary invasions, defined here as invasions that are influenced either positively (facilitation) or negatively (inhibition/priority effects) by existing invaders. We generate a conceptual model with a surprise index to describe whether long-term plant invader composition and dominance is predictable or stochastic after a system perturbation such as a removal experiment. Under extremely low resource availability, the surprise index is low, whereas under intermediate-level resource environments, invader dominance is more stochastic and the surprise index is high. At high resource levels, the surprise index is intermediate: Invaders are likely abundant in the environment but their response to a perturbation is more predictable than at intermediate resource levels. We suggest further testing across environmental gradients to determine key variables that dictate the predictability of postremoval invader composition.

Hawai'i↗

Managing native and non-native sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) through anthropogenic change: A prospective assessment of key threats and uncertainties

Sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) is a species of conservation concern in their native range of the Atlantic coasts of Europe (Near Threatened to Critically Endangered) and North America (Secure to Critically Imperiled), and an invasive species of great economic and ecological concern in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Despite differences in life history strategy (anadromous natives vs adfluvial non-natives), the biology of sea lamprey is sufficiently similar to expect comparable responses to large-scale environmental change. We take a prospective look at the future (50 to 100 years) of sea lamprey management in an era of considerable environmental disturbance, and consider biological responses, management actions, and the future status of populations across the native and non-native ranges. Based on facilitated discussion by a diverse group of international experts, two major but poorly characterized classes of threats to sea lamprey were identified: climate change and socio-political issues. We discuss how climate induced changes affect growth, bioenergetics, and phenology of sea lamprey, and associated effects on control tactics (pesticides and barriers) and conservation. We consider tensions surrounding improving connectivity in the Great Lakes while controlling invasive sea lamprey, and discuss supplements and alternatives to pesticides and their wider effect, as well as the effects of new invasive species. To prevent the extirpation of native sea lamprey populations, or the re-expansion of non-native populations, we conclude with a call for new and ongoing dialogue and collaboration among all sea lamprey biologists and managers across the native and non-native range.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Effects of hydrologic, biological, and environmental processes on sources and concentrations of fecal bacteria in the Cuyahoga River, with implications for management of recreational waters in Summit and Cuyahoga Counties, Ohio

Discharges of fecal bacteria (fecal coliform bacteria and Escherichia coli ) to the middle main stem of the Cuyahoga River from storm water, combined sewers, and incompletely disinfected wastewater have resulted in frequent exceedances of bacteriological water-quality standards in a 23-mile reach of the river that flows through the Cuyahoga Valley National Recreation Area. Contamination of the middle main stem of the Cuyahoga River by bacteria of fecal origin and subsequent transport to downstream areas where water-contact recreation is an important use of the river are a concern because of the potential public-health risk from the presence of enteric pathogens. Independent field investigations of bacterial decay, dilution, dispersion, transport, and sources, and bacterial contamination of streambed sediments, were completed in 1991-93 during periods of rainfall and runoff. The highest concentration of fecal coliform bacteria observed in the middle main stem during three transport studies exceeded the single-sample fecal coliform standard applicable to primary-contact recreation by a factor of approximately 1,300 and exceeded the Escherichia coli standard by a factor of approximately 8,000. The geometric-mean concentrations of fecal bacteria in the middle main stem were 6.7 to 12.3 times higher than geometric-mean concentrations in the monitored tributaries, and 1.8 to 7.0 times larger than the geometric-mean concentrations discharged from the Akron Water Pollution Control Station. Decay rates of fecal bacteria measured in field studies in 1992 ranged from 0.0018 per hour to 0.0372 per hour for fecal coliform bacteria and from 0.0022 per hour to 0.0407 per hour for Escherichia coli. Most of the decay rates measured in June and August were significantly higher than decay rates measured in April and October. Results of field studies demonstrated that concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria were 1.2 to 58 times higher in streambed sediments than in the overlying water. Sediments are likely to be a relatively less important source of fecal bacteria during rainfall and runoff in the middle main stem relative to bacterial loading from point sources. Numerical streamflow and transport simulation models were calibrated and verified with data collected during field studies. Of the constituents modeled, bacteria exhibited the poorest correspondence between observed and simulated values. The simulation results for a dye tracer indicated that the model reasonably reproduced the timing of dissolved constituents as well as dilution and dispersion effects. Calibrated and verified models for 1991 and 1992 data sets were used to simulate the improvements to bacteriological water quality that might result from reductions in concentrations of fecal bacteria discharged from two major sources. The model simulation resulting in the greatest improvement in bacteriological water-quality was one in which concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria and Escherichia coli were reduced by 90 percent in the Cuyahoga River at the Old Portage gaging station, and to geometric-mean bathing-water standards in the effluent of the Akron Water Pollution Control Station (BWS/90 scenario). Compared to the results of the base-simulation, when the BWS/90 scenario was applied in the 1991 model simulation, Escherichia coli concentrations were reduced 98.5 percent at Botzum, 97.5 percent at Jaite, and 91.1 percent at Independence. For 1992 model simulations, similar percent reductions in the concentrations of Escherichia coli were predicted at the three stream sites when the same reductions were applied to sources. None of the model simulations resulted in attainment of bacteriological water-quality standards. The potential benefits of source reductions to human health and recreational uses were estimated by comparing the number of illnesses per 1,000 people from concentrations of Escherichia coli associated with the BWS/90 simulation, with the base simulation, and with the geometric-mean standard for Escherichia coli. The predicted 22 to 26 illnesses per 1,000 people predicted by the E. coli concentrations resulting from BWS/90 simulation are 2.8 to 3.3 times higher than the 8 illnesses per 1,000 people associated with the geometric-mean primary-contact water-quality standard for Escherichia coli. Risks associated with the base simulation are 4.6 to 4.9 times higher than that associated with the geometric-mean primary- contact water-quality standard for Escherichia coli. The illness risks predicted from the BWS/90 scenario, although larger than acceptable, would nevertheless be an improvement over conditions that were encountered during field studies in 1991-93.

Ohio↗

On the deterministic and stochastic use of hydrologic models

Environmental simulation models, such as precipitation-runoff watershed models, are increasingly used in a deterministic manner for environmental and water resources design, planning, and management. In operational hydrology, simulated responses are now routinely used to plan, design, and manage a very wide class of water resource systems. However, all such models are calibrated to existing data sets and retain some residual error. This residual, typically unknown in practice, is often ignored, implicitly trusting simulated responses as if they are deterministic quantities. In general, ignoring the residuals will result in simulated responses with distributional properties that do not mimic those of the observed responses. This discrepancy has major implications for the operational use of environmental simulation models as is shown here. Both a simple linear model and a distributed-parameter precipitation-runoff model are used to document the expected bias in the distributional properties of simulated responses when the residuals are ignored. The systematic reintroduction of residuals into simulated responses in a manner that produces stochastic output is shown to improve the distributional properties of the simulated responses. Every effort should be made to understand the distributional behavior of simulation residuals and to use environmental simulation models in a stochastic manner.

Water Resources Research↗

Design and documentation of a Baltimore-Washington regional spatial database testbed for environmental model calibration and verification

Recent efforts by scientists and managers to inventory, map, and model impacts of human activities on the environment have focused on land transformation and urbanization processes. To test the efficacy of any single model, algorithm or procedure which defines land transformation processes a standard database calibration reference resource is required. Therefore, a set of georeferenced, spatially structured and well documented data sets has been designed for the Baltimore-Washington Region as a test and evaluation resource for the community of environmental modelers and global change scientists. Land transformation processes are being examined from a variety of perspectives and scales using a variety of indicator parameters and mensuration variables. Tools and techniques applied to land transformation assessments range from creation of simple population expansion maps to change detection calculations using remotely sensed satellite data. A variety of point and cell growth models have been applied to simulate the land transformation phenomenon. These activities have demonstrated the reality that urbanization and land transformation processes involve complex interacting variables. A team of scientists are expanding the efforts of the USGS Human Impacts on Land Transformation (HILT) project to build an Internet accessible "collaboratory" containing quality controlled spatially referenced calibration and validation databases. The Baltimore-Washington Regional Testbed provides for the calibration, verification, and validation for multiple scalar, temporal, thematic, and spectral assessments or models. This design and documentation procedures for creating the Baltimore-Washington Regional "Collaboratory" are presented in relation to its use for environmental modeling applications.

Maryland↗

Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional assessment—Volume I. Ecological communities

The Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment was conducted in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative . The overall goal of the Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) is to compile and synthesize regional datasets to facilitate evaluation of the cumulative effects of change agents on priority ecological communities and species. In particular, the REAs identify and map the distribution of communities and wildlife habitats at broad spatial extents and provide assessments of ecological conditions. The REAs also identify where and to what degree ecological resources are currently at risk from change agents, such as development, fire, invasive species, and climate change. The REAs can help managers identify and prioritize potential areas for conservation or restoration, assess cumulative effects as required by the National Environmental Policy Act, and inform landscape-level planning and management decisions for multiple uses of public lands. Management questions form the basis for the REA framework and were developed in conjunction with the BLM and other stakeholders. Conservation elements are communities and species that are of regional management concern. Core management questions relate to the key ecological attributes and change agents associated with each conservation element. Integrated management questions synthesize the results of the primary core management questions into overall landscape-level ranks for each conservation element. The ecological communities evaluated as conservation elements are shortgrass, mixed-grass, and sand prairies; all grasslands; riparian and nonplaya wetlands; playa wetlands and saline lakes; and prairie streams and rivers. Species and species assemblages evaluated are the freshwater mussel assemblage, Arkansas River shiner ( Notropis girardi ), ferruginous hawk ( Buteo regalis ), lesser prairie chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ), snowy plover ( Charadrius nivosus ), mountain plover ( Charadrius montanus ), long-billed curlew ( Numenius americanus ), interior least tern ( Sternula antillarum athalassos ), burrowing owl ( Athene cunicularia hypugaea ), black-tailed prairie dog ( Cynomys ludovicianus ), bat assemblage, swift fox ( Vulpes velox ), and mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ). The Southern Great Plains REA is summarized in a series of three reports and associated datasets. The pre-assessment report (available online at https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2015/1003/ ) summarizes the process used by the REA stakeholders to select management questions, conservation elements, and change agents. It also provides background information for each conservation element. Volume I of the Southern Great Plains REA report (this volume) addresses the ecological communities. Volume II will address the species and species assemblages. All source and derived datasets used to produce the maps and graphs for REAs are available online at the BLM Landscape Approach Data Portal ( https://landscape.blm.gov/geoportal/catalog/REAs/REAs.page ).

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, ↗

Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment—Volume II. Species and assemblages

The Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment was conducted in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative. The overall goal of the Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) is to compile and synthesize regional datasets to facilitate evaluation of the cumulative effects of change agents on priority ecological communities and species. In particular, the REAs identify and map the distribution of communities and wildlife habitats at broad spatial extents and provide assessments of ecological conditions. The REAs also identify where and to what degree ecological resources are currently at risk from change agents, such as development, fire, invasive species, and climate change. The REAs can help managers identify and prioritize potential areas for conservation or restoration, assess cumulative effects as required by the National Environmental Policy Act, and inform landscape-level planning and management decisions for multiple uses of public lands. Management questions form the basis for the REA framework and were developed in conjunction with the BLM and other stakeholders. Conservation elements are communities and species that are of regional management concern. Core management questions relate to the key ecological attributes and change agents associated with each conservation element. Integrated management questions synthesize the results of the primary core management questions into overall landscape-level ranks for each conservation element. The ecological communities evaluated as conservation elements are shortgrass, mixed-grass, and sand prairies; all grasslands; riparian and nonplaya wetlands; playa wetlands and saline lakes; and prairie streams and rivers. Species and species assemblages evaluated are the freshwater mussel assemblage, Arkansas River shiner ( Notropis girardi ), ferruginous hawk ( Buteo regalis ), lesser prairie chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ), snowy plover ( Charadrius nivosus ), mountain plover ( Charadrius montanus ), long-billed curlew ( Numenius americanus ), interior least tern ( Sternula antillarum athalassos ), burrowing owl ( Athene cunicularia ), black-tailed prairie dog ( Cynomys ludovicianus ), bat assemblage, swift fox ( Vulpes velox ), and mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ). The Southern Great Plains REA is summarized in a series of three reports and associated datasets. The pre-assessment report (available online at https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20151003 ) summarizes the process used by the REA stakeholders to select management questions, conservation elements, and change agents. It also provides background information for each conservation element. Volume I of the Southern Great Plains REA report addresses the ecological communities (available online at https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171100 ). Volume II (this volume) addresses the species and species assemblages. All source and derived datasets used to produce the maps and graphs for REAs are available online at the BLM Landscape Approach Data Portal ( https://landscape.blm.gov/geoportal/catalog/REAs/REAs.page ).

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, ↗

Interdisciplinary science in support of environmental health along the United States-Mexico border

The diverse, fragile ecosystems of the borderlands have been pushed beyond sustainable levels due to rapid population growth and land-use changes. Water shortages and pollution, poor air quality, increased soil salinities, residual pesticides and heavy metal contaminants are some of the many stressors that are degrading the quality of life in the borderlands. The relationship between human health and environmental quality challenges public officials, medical professionals, and resource managers on both sides of the border in their efforts to provide for and maintain healthy communities. To help understand the relationship between environmental and human health, the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Border Environmental Health Initiative (BEHI) created an Internet Map Service (IMS) with binational georeferenced data. The goal is to have seamless integration of borderwide datasets at regional and local scales that can lend understanding of the linkages between the condition of the physical environment and public health issues.

Fact Sheet↗

Chemical mixtures and environmental effects: a pilot study to assess ecological exposure and effects in streams

Assessment and management of the risks of exposure to complex chemical mixtures in streams are priorities for human and environmental health organizations around the world. The current lack of information on the composition and variability of environmental mixtures and a limited understanding of their combined effects are fundamental obstacles to timely identification and prevention of adverse human and ecological effects of exposure. This report describes the design of a field-based study of the composition and biological activity of chemical mixtures in U.S. stream waters affected by a wide range of human activities and contaminant sources. The study is a collaborative effort by the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Scientists sampled 38 streams spanning 24 States and Puerto Rico. Thirty-four of the sites were located in watersheds impacted by multiple contaminant sources, including industrial and municipal wastewater discharges, crop and animal agricultural runoff, urban runoff, and other point and nonpoint contaminant sources. The remaining four sites were minimally development reference watersheds. All samples underwent comprehensive chemical and biological characterization, including sensitive and specific direct analysis for over 700 dissolved organic and inorganic chemicals and field parameters, identification of unknown contaminants (environmental diagnostics), and a variety of bioassays to evaluate biological activity and toxicity.

Open-File Report↗

Vegetation community recovery on restored bottomland hardwood forests in northeast Indiana, USA

Vegetation communities in restored bottomland hardwood forests in northeast Indiana were studied 6–21 years after restoration to assess progress toward restoration objectives. The study focused on four sites that were restored to compensate for resource injuries after contaminant releases. The restored sites were compared with four reference-site conditions, including crops (prerestoration condition), old field communities representing a no-management alternative, locally sampled second-growth mature forests, and forest community types described by the US National Vegetation Classification (USNVC), which represent ideal or defining conditions of recognized vegetation communities. Fixed-area plots provided data on field-sampled environmental variables, vegetation, soil, and hydrological conditions for crops, old fields, restored areas, and mature forests. The USNVC database provided quantitative data for three historically and geographically relevant reference forest community types for comparison with the sampled communities. Results of nonmetric multidimensional scaling based on species cover revealed clear gradients relating to site age and canopy development. Along those gradients, restored areas demonstrated increasing similarity to mature forest reference communities in terms of floristic composition. Specifically, the floristic quality of restored areas was significantly greater than that of crops and old fields. Furthermore, soil health measurements of physical, chemical, and hydrological conditions indicated significant improvements in restored site soils compared with prerestoration conditions represented by cropland soils. Descriptions and data from the USNVC provided ecological context for restoration target conditions and facilitated the assessment of restoration recovery along a trajectory from starting conditions to those target conditions. Descriptions by USNVC also helped identify deviations from the intended restoration objectives (e.g., invasive species recruitment) and potential adaptive management actions to return sites to their intended trajectories. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1–22. Published 2024. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Indiana↗

Regulating services as measures of ecological resilience on DoD lands

Knowledge of the capacity and flow of ecosystem services can help DoD land managers make decisions that enhance cost-effectiveness, minimize environmental damage, and maximize resources available for military missions. We demonstrated a methodology to quantify and map selected regulating services (RS), which helps land managers envision tradeoffs. Our objectives were to 1) estimate current capacity of and demand for selected RS within DoD lands, 2) examine the effects of future DoD land management and climate changes on the capacity and flow of these RS, and 3) project how land-use and climate changes in nearby lands affect future demand for RS. Our approach incorporates widely accepted models and equations, remote sensing, GIS analysis, and stakeholder involvement. Required data include land cover/use, soil type, precipitation, and air temperature. We integrated data into the a) Surface Curve Number Method and b) Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation to estimate capacity of sediment, nitrogen (N) and surface-water regulation. Capacities and flows of RS vary greatly across landscapes and are likely to vary as climate changes or development occurs. Analyses of RS capacity and flow can help managers and planners prioritize actions in the context of best management practices and compatible use buffers. Staff surveys indicated that our approach was informative and easy to use. Implementation may be most limited by on-installation personnel time.

Report↗

Mass-balance-consistent geological stock accounting: A new approach toward sustainable management of mineral resources

Global resource extraction raises concerns about environmental pressures and the security of mineral supply. Strategies to address these concerns depend on robust information on natural resource endowments, and on suitable methods to monitor and model their changes over time. However, current mineral resources and reserves reporting and accounting workflows are poorly suited for addressing mineral depletion or answering questions about the long-term sustainable supply. Our integrative review finds that the lack of a robust theoretical concept and framework for mass-balance (MB)-consistent geological stock accounting hinders systematic industry-government data integration, resource governance, and strategy development. We evaluate the existing literature on geological stock accounting, identify shortcomings of current monitoring of mine production, and outline a conceptual framework for MB-consistent system integration based on material flow analysis (MFA). Our synthesis shows that recent developments in Earth observation, geoinformation management, and sustainability reporting act as catalysts that make MB-consistent geological stock accounting increasingly feasible. We propose first steps for its implementation and anticipate that our perspective as “resource realists” will facilitate the integration of geological and anthropogenic material systems, help secure future mineral supply, and support the global sustainability transition.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System

Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.

Environmental Management↗

Wetland modeling and information needs at Stillwater National Wildlife Refuge

The marshes in and around Stillwater National Wildlife Refuge (the Refuge) are extremely dynamic; expanding and contracting in size both seasonally, due to runoff and subsequent evapotranspiration, and over longer periods, due to climatic variation. The dynamic nature of these marshes results in a diversity of wetland habitats, which support a variety of migratory birds. To maintain this wetland diversity and control the loss of migratory bird habitat in the Lahontan Valley, the Refuge was established and currently manages a complex of marsh units. However, changes in the hydrology, and changes that will occur as a result of the Fallon Paiute-Shoshone and Truckee-Carson-Pyramid Lake Water Rights Settlement Act (Public Law 101-618, 104 Stat. 3389), greatly affect the Refuge's wetland management capability. In light of these changes, and the legal requirements associated with environmental impact assessments, the Refuge convened a workshop to discuss several aspects of wetland management in the Lahontan Valley. The workshop, described in this report, had three primary objectives: 1. discuss the types and relative proportions of primary wetland habitats that should be provided as described in the settlement act; 2. discuss wetland management models that might be developed to help manage these marshes under hydrologic regimes likely in the future; and 3. discuss future information and monitoring needs, including proposals for valley-wide biodiversity surveys, which would be helpful when considering withdrawn Bureau of Reclamation (BR) lands for possible incorporation into the Refuge. Several presentations at the beginning of the workshop provided a common basis for discussing these objectives. Refuge staff provided background on the history and past management. The Nature Conservatory discussed their role in the settlement act, proposals for valley-wide biodiversity surveys, and results of a literature review for Stillwater Marsh and the Lahontan Valley (Nachlinger 1993). Kay Fowler provided an historical context of changes in vegetation and waterbird use of the marshes based on her ethnography of the local Paiute Indians (Fowler 1993). Finally, Bob Elston discussed a model that predicts archaeological sites based on environmental variables (Raven and Elston 1989). The workshop was organized by staff from the Refuge and facilitated by the authors of this report. Participants included Ron Anglin, Bill Henry, Anne Janik, Cliff Creger, Fred Paveglio, and Mary Jo Elpers of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (the Service); Jeff Baumgartner, Jan Nachlinger, Hope Humphries, and Graham Chisholm of The Nature Conservancy; David Yardas of the Environmental Defense Fund; David Robertson of Robertson Software, Inc.; Norm Saake, Terry Retterer, and Larry Neel of the Nevada Department of Wildlife; Lew Oring and Kay Fowler of the University of Nevada; and Robert Elston of Intermountain Research.

Report↗