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At least 1,189 records · Page 66Linked to original sources

Flood-frequency estimation for very low annual exceedance probabilities using historical, paleoflood, and regional information with consideration of nonstationarity

Streamflow estimates for floods with an annual exceedance probability of 0.001 or lower are needed to accurately portray risks to critical infrastructure, such as nuclear powerplants and large dams. However, extrapolating flood-frequency curves developed from at-site systematic streamflow records to very low annual exceedance probabilities (less than 0.001) results in large uncertainties in the streamflow estimates. Traditionally, methods for statistically estimating flood frequency have relied on the systematic streamflow record, which provides a time series of annual maximum flood peaks, often including some historical peaks. However, most peak-flow records are less than 100 years, and uncertainties are large when trying to extrapolate magnitudes of very low annual exceedance probability events. Other data may be available that extend the record beyond the systematic dataset. Historical data are defined as data from outside the period of systematic records but within the period of human records. Examples of historical information include flood estimates from other agencies and newspaper accounts that can be translated to flood magnitude point estimates, interval estimates, or perception thresholds (such as a statement that an 1880 flood was the largest since 1869). Paleoflood data, which may also extend the dataset, include a broad range of information about flood occurrence or magnitude from sources like sediment deposits or tree rings. Several assumptions are made in flood-frequency analysis, and an understanding of whether the data conform to these assumptions is desired. A particularly difficult assumption to evaluate for flood-frequency analysis is the underlying assumption that the flood series is stationary—the assumption that a time series of peak flow varies around a constant mean within a particular range of values (constant variance). As the hydrologic community’s understanding of natural systems and anthropogenic effects on streamflows has evolved, the community has come to understand that many surface-water systems exhibit one or more forms of nonstationarity, and thus the stationarity assumption is often violated to some degree. However, there is currently (2020) no consensus among hydrologists regarding the most appropriate flood-frequency-analysis methods for nonstationary systems, and this topic remains an active area of research. A literature review was completed to summarize the state of the science of flood frequency. The literature review highlights tools available to detect nonstationarities and identifies approaches that include external information to inform flood-frequency analysis. To demonstrate methods for initial data analysis and for incorporating historical and paleoflood information in flood-frequency analysis, five sites were selected: the Red River of the North at James Avenue Pumping Station, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada; lower reach, Rapid Creek, South Dakota; Spring Creek, South Dakota; Cherry Creek near Melvin, Colorado; and Escalante River near Escalante, Utah. The sites were chosen for the availability of published historical and paleoflood data and for their geographic diversity and unique characteristics, which highlighted issues such as autocorrelation, change points, trends, outlier peaks, or short periods of record. An initial data analysis that involved examining records for autocorrelation, change points, and trends was completed for all sites. The flood-frequency analysis completed for this study used version 7.2 of the U.S. Geological Survey PeakFQ program. Multiple analyses were done on each site documenting the change in the flood-frequency curve when additional historical or paleoflood data were added. When other flood-frequency studies were available, their results were compared to the results here. The comparisons in some cases simply show the effect of additional years of data, whereas other comparisons show results from probability distributions or fitting methods other than those used in PeakFQ. For the Red River of the North, flood-frequency analysis shows that paleoflood data appear necessary to reasonably estimate very low annual exceedance probabilities. For the analysis of the lower reach of Rapid Creek and Spring Creek, paleoflood information helped put a high outlier from the systematic period in context; however, very low annual exceedance probabilities at these sites still had extraordinarily large confidence bounds. These sites also showed that paleoflood information might be transferred from one site to another, with the caveat that this is a case where we had existing paleoflood data to test the transfer of paleoflood information—this is not the case at many sites, and transferring paleoflood information requires assumptions about the comparability of floods at the sites. The Cherry Creek analysis affirmed the result of an earlier study that showed that the generalized Pareto distribution was not a good distribution for estimating very low annual exceedance probabilities. The Escalante River analysis showed that adding paleoflood information might increase uncertainty for very low annual exceedance probabilities, compared to analysis with the systematic period of record information only, when the paleoflood peaks are of much larger magnitudes than the systematic record.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Accurate bathymetric maps from underwater digital imagery without ground control

Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry can be used with digital underwater photographs to generate high-resolution bathymetry and orthomosaics with millimeter-to-centimeter scale resolution at relatively low cost. Although these products are useful for assessing species diversity and health, they have additional utility for quantifying benthic community structure, such as coral growth and fine-scale elevation change over time, if accurate length scales and georeferencing are included. This georeferencing is commonly provided with “ground control,” such as pre-installed seafloor benchmarks or identifiable “static” features, which can be difficult and time consuming to install, survey, and maintain. To address these challenges, we developed the SfM Quantitative Underwater Imaging Device with Five Cameras (SQUID-5), a towed surface vehicle with an onboard survey-grade Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and five rigidly mounted downward-looking cameras with overlapping views of the seafloor. The cameras are tightly synchronized with both the GNSS and each other to collect quintet photo sets and record the precise location of every collection event. The system was field tested in July 2019 in the U.S. Florida Keys, in water depths ranging from 3 to 9 m over a variety of bottom types. Surveying accuracy was assessed using pre-installed stations with known coordinates, machined scale bars, and two independent surveys of a site to evaluate repeatability. Under a range of sea conditions, ambient lighting, and water clarity, we were able to map living and senile coral reef habitats and sand waves at mm-scale resolution. Data were processed using best practice SfM techniques without ground control and local measurement errors of horizontal and vertical scales were consistently sub-millimeter, equivalent to 0.013% RMSE relative to water depth. Survey-to-survey repeatability RMSE was on the order of 3 cm without georeferencing but could be improved to several millimeters with the incorporation of one or more non-surveyed marker points. We demonstrate that the SQUID-5 platform can map complex coral reef and other seafloor habitats and measure mm-to-cm scale changes in the morphology and location of seafloor features over time without pre-existing ground control.

Florida↗

Multi-temporal mapping and analyses of post-wildfire surface soil moisture modeled from Landsat Thermal-IR and Sentinel-1 SAR

Wildfires alter surface soil moisture by consuming vegetation and exposing the soil to increased solar radiation, increased precipitation throughfall, and reduced infiltration from soil hydrophobicity. This can affect the water balance within the watershed and, in turn, influence post-fire nutrient cycling and ecosystem succession. Modeling surface soil moisture over large areas using satellite remote sensing can aid monitoring of soil moisture patterns and dynamics. We trained a random forest regression model using an in situ soil moisture network and examined pre- and post-fire soil moisture dynamics for three wildfires that burned in 2016 and 2017 in coastal California, U.S.A. Model inputs included Sentinel-1A synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and Landsat thermal infrared imagery (TIR), which produced a high resolution (30 m) soil moisture map time series with 18–20 estimates across 2 years. An unbiased root mean square error of 0.065 and an r 2 of 0.624 indicates a good fit between the model and reference data. We found a significant interaction between treatment (wildfire or unburned) and period (before or after wildfire) by examining the modeled surface soil moisture in high-severity burned areas. Before-after control-impact metrics showed that modeled surface soil moisture was lower after each fire within wildfire areas compared to unburned controls, and overall changes in soil moisture were greater in the wildfire perimeters than unburned areas. These results demonstrate the potential of Sentinel-1 SAR and Landsat TIR data for the development of high-resolution soil moisture time series products to support monitoring and assessment of post-fire soil hydrologic conditions.

California↗

Regional hydrogeological screening characteristics used for siting near-surface waste-disposal facilities in Oklahoma, U.S.A.

The Oklahoma Geological Survey has developed several maps and reports for preliminary screening of the state of Oklahoma to identify areas that are generally acceptable or unacceptable for disposal of a wide variety of waste materials. These maps and reports focus on the geologic and hydrogeologic parameters that must be evaluated in the screening process. One map (and report) shows the outcrop distribution of 35 thick shale or clay units that are generally suitable for use as host rocks for surface disposal of wastes. A second map shows the distribution of unconsolidated alluvial and terrace-deposit aquifers, and a third map shows the distribution and hydrologic character of bedrock aquifers and their recharge areas. These latter two maps show the areas in the state where special attention must be exercised in permitting storage or disposal of waste materials that could degrade the quality of groundwater. State regulatory agencies and industry are using these maps and reports in preliminary screening of the state to identify potential disposal sites. These maps in no way replace the need for site-specific investigations to prove (or disprove) the adequacy of a site to safely contain waste materials. ?? 1991 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

Environmental Geology and Water Sciences↗

Convergence of marine megafauna movement patterns in coastal and open oceans

The extent of increasing anthropogenic impacts on large marine vertebrates partly depends on the animals’ movement patterns. Effective conservation requires identification of the key drivers of movement including intrinsic properties and extrinsic constraints associated with the dynamic nature of the environments the animals inhabit. However, the relative importance of intrinsic versus extrinsic factors remains elusive. We analyze a global dataset of ∼2.8 million locations from >2,600 tracked individuals across 50 marine vertebrates evolutionarily separated by millions of years and using different locomotion modes (fly, swim, walk/paddle). Strikingly, movement patterns show a remarkable convergence, being strongly conserved across species and independent of body length and mass, despite these traits ranging over 10 orders of magnitude among the species studied. This represents a fundamental difference between marine and terrestrial vertebrates not previously identified, likely linked to the reduced costs of locomotion in water. Movement patterns were primarily explained by the interaction between species-specific traits and the habitat(s) they move through, resulting in complex movement patterns when moving close to coasts compared with more predictable patterns when moving in open oceans. This distinct difference may be associated with greater complexity within coastal microhabitats, highlighting a critical role of preferred habitat in shaping marine vertebrate global movements. Efforts to develop understanding of the characteristics of vertebrate movement should consider the habitat(s) through which they move to identify how movement patterns will alter with forecasted severe ocean changes, such as reduced Arctic sea ice cover, sea level rise, and declining oxygen content.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

Three-dimensional imaging, change detection, and stability assessment during the centerline trench levee seepage experiment using terrestrial light detection and ranging technology, Twitchell Island, California, 2012

A full scale field seepage test was conducted on a north-south trending levee segment of a now bypassed old meander belt on Twitchell Island, California, to understand the effects of live and decaying root systems on levee seepage and slope stability. The field test in May 2012 was centered on a north-south trench with two segments: a shorter control segment and a longer seepage test segment. The complete length of the trench area measured 40.4 meters (m) near the levee centerline with mature trees located on the waterside and landside of the levee flanks. The levee was instrumented with piezometers and tensiometers to measure positive and negative porewater pressures across the levee after the trench was flooded with water and held at a constant hydraulic head during the seepage test—the results from this component of the experiment are not discussed in this report. We collected more than one billion three-dimensional light detection and ranging (lidar) data points before, during, and after the centerline seepage test to assess centimeter-scale stability of the two trees and the levee crown. During the seepage test, the waterside tree toppled (rotated 20.7 degrees) into the water. The landside tree rotated away from the levee by 5 centimeters (cm) at a height of 2 m on the tree. The paved surface of the levee crown had three regions that showed subsidence on the waterside of the trench—discussed as the northern, central, and southern features. The northern feature is an elongate region that subsided 2.1 cm over an area with an average width of 1.35 m that extends 15.8 m parallel to the trench from the northern end of the trench to just north of the trench midpoint, and is associated with a crack 1 cm in height that formed during the seepage test on the trench wall. The central subsidence feature is a semicircular region on the waterside of the trench that subsided by as much as 6.2 cm over an area 3.4 m wide and 11.2 m long. The southern feature is an elongate region that has a maximum subsidence of 3.5 cm over an area 0.75 m wide and 8.1 m long and is associated with a number of small fractures in the pavement that are predominately north-south-trending and parallel to the trench. We determined that there was no significant motion of the levee flank during the last week of the seepage test. We also determined biomorphic parameters for the landside tree, such as the 3D positioning on the levee, tree height, levee parallel/perpendicular cross sectional area, and canopy centroid. These biomorphic parameters were requested to support a University of California Berkeley team studying seepage and stability on the levee. A gridded, 2-cm bare-earth digital elevation model of the levee crown and the landside levee flank from the final terrestrial lidar (T-Lidar) survey provided detailed topographic data for future assessment. Because the T-Lidar was not integrated into the project design, other than an initial courtesy dataset to help characterize the levee surface, our ability to contribute to the overall science goals of the seepage test was limited. Therefore, our analysis focused on developing data collection and processing methodology necessary to align ultra high-resolution T-Lidar data (with an average spot spacing 2–3 millimeters on the levee crown) from several instrument setup locations to detect, measure, and characterize dynamic centimeter-scale deformation and surface changes during the seepage test.

California↗

Validation of a vulnerability index of exposure to chemicals of emerging concern in surface water and sediment of Great Lakes tributaries of the United States

Widespread occurrence of emerging contaminants in Great Lakes tributaries led to the development and publication of a vulnerability index (VI) to assess the potential exposure of aquatic communities to chemicals of emerging concern (CEC) in the Great Lakes basin. The robust nature of the VI was tested to evaluate the underlying statistical model and expand the spatial domain of the index. Data collected at 131 new sampling sites (Test 1) and published data from independent studies (Test 2) were used to test the model predictions. Test 1 water and sediment samples were analyzed for the same classes of CEC chemicals and compared to the predictions for the original VI. Concentrations and numbers of unique CECs detected in water and sediment samples were similar between the original data and the two test datasets, although CECs tended to have higher detection frequencies in the original dataset compared to the Test 1 and Test 2 datasets. For example, 69 CECs were detected in ≥30% of water samples in the original dataset compared with 17 CECs in the Test 1 data and 59 in the Test 2 data. Predicted vulnerability for test sites agreed with actual vulnerability 64% of the time for water and 71% of the time for sediment. Agreement percentage results were greater when individual sites were grouped by river, with 82% agreement between predictions and actual vulnerability for water and 78% agreement for sediment. For the entire dataset, the VI ranks correlated with an independent estimate of potential biological impact. Agreement percentage was the greatest for low or high vulnerability index values but highly variable for sites that are classified as having medium vulnerability. Despite the underlying variability, there is a significant correlation (R 2 = 0.26; p < 0.01) between the VI ranking of tributaries and the independent ranking of potential negative biological impact.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, ↗

Snow processes in mountain forests: Interception modeling for coarse-scale applications

Snow interception by the forest canopy controls the spatial heterogeneity of subcanopy snow accumulation leading to significant differences between forested and nonforested areas at a variety of scales. Snow intercepted by the forest canopy can also drastically change the surface albedo. As such, accurately modeling snow interception is of importance for various model applications such as hydrological, weather, and climate predictions. Due to difficulties in the direct measurements of snow interception, previous empirical snow interception models were developed at just the point scale. The lack of spatially extensive data sets has hindered the validation of snow interception models in different snow climates, forest types, and at various spatial scales and has reduced the accurate representation of snow interception in coarse-scale models. We present two novel empirical models for the spatial mean and one for the standard deviation of snow interception derived from an extensive snow interception data set collected in an evergreen coniferous forest in the Swiss Alps. Besides open-site snowfall, subgrid model input parameters include the standard deviation of the DSM (digital surface model) and/or the sky view factor, both of which can be easily precomputed. Validation of both models was performed with snow interception data sets acquired in geographically different locations under disparate weather conditions. Snow interception data sets from the Rocky Mountains, US, and the French Alps compared well to the modeled snow interception with a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) for the spatial mean of ≤10 % for both models and NRMSE of the standard deviation of ≤13 %. Compared to a previous model for the spatial mean interception of snow water equivalent, the presented models show improved model performances. Our results indicate that the proposed snow interception models can be applied in coarse land surface model grid cells provided that a sufficiently fine-scale DSM is available to derive subgrid forest parameters.

Utah↗

Design of Cycle 3 of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program, 2013-2022: Part 1: Framework of Water-Quality Issues and Potential Approaches

In 1991, the U.S. Congress established the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program to develop long-term, nationally consistent information on the quality of the Nation's streams and groundwater. Congress recognized the critical need for this information to support scientifically sound management, regulatory, and policy decisions concerning the increasingly stressed water resources of the Nation. The long-term goals of NAWQA are to: (1) assess the status of water-quality conditions in the United States, (2) evaluate long-term trends in water-quality conditions, and (3) link status and trends with an understanding of the natural and human factors that affect water quality. These goals are national in scale, include both surface water and groundwater, and include consideration of water quality in relation to both human uses and aquatic ecosystems. Since 1991, NAWQA assessments and findings have fostered and supported major improvements in the availability and use of unbiased scientific information for decisionmaking, resource management, and planning at all levels of government. These improvements have enabled agencies and stakeholders to cost-effectively address a wide range of water-quality issues related to natural and human influences on the quality of water and potential effects on aquatic ecosystems and human health (http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/xrel.pdf). NAWQA, like all USGS programs, provides policy relevant information that serves as a scientific basis for decisionmaking related to resource management, protection, and restoration. The information is freely available to all levels of government, nongovernmental organizations, industry, academia, and the public, and is readily accessible on the NAWQA Web site and other diverse formats to serve the needs of the water-resource community at different technical levels. Water-quality conditions in streams and groundwater are described in more than 1,700 publications (available online at http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/bib/), and are documented by more than 14 million data records representing about 7,600 stream sites, 8,100 wells, and 2,000 water-quality and ecological constituents that are available from the NAWQA data warehouse (http://infotrek.er.usgs.gov/traverse/f?p=NAWQA:HOME:0). The Program promotes collaboration and liaison with government officials, resource managers, industry representatives, and other stakeholders to increase the utility and relevance of NAWQA science to decisionmakers. As part of this effort, NAWQA supports integration of data from other organizations into NAWQA assessments, where appropriate and cost-effective, so that more comprehensive findings are available across geographic and temporal scales.

Open-File Report↗

Fluid migration pathways to groundwater in mature oil fields: Exploring the roles of water injection/production and oil-well integrity in California, USA

Mature oil fields potentially contain multiple fluid migration pathways toward protected groundwater (total dissolved solids, TDS, in nonexempted aquifer <10,000 mg/L) because of their extensive development histories. Time-series data for water use, fluid pressures, oil-well construction, and geochemistry from the South Belridge and Lost Hills mature oil fields in California are used to explore the roles of injection/production of oil-field water and well-integrity issues in fluid migration. Injection/production of oil-field water modified hydraulic gradients in both oil fields, resulting in chemical transport from deeper groundwater and hydrocarbon-reservoir systems to aquifers in the oil fields. Those aquifers are used for water supply outside the oil-field boundaries. Oil wells drilled before 1976 can be fluid migration pathways because a relatively large percentage of them have >10 m of uncemented annulus that straddles oil-well casing damage and/or the base of groundwater with TDS <10,000 mg/L. The risk of groundwater-quality degradation is higher when wells with those risk factors occur in areas with upward hydraulic gradients created by positive net injection, groundwater withdrawals, or combinations of these variables. The complex changes in hydrologic conditions and groundwater chemistry likely would not have been discovered in the absence of years to decades of monitoring data for groundwater elevations and chemistry, and installation of monitoring wells in areas with overlapping risk factors. Important monitoring concepts based on results from this and other studies include monitoring hydrocarbon-reservoir and groundwater systems at multiple spatiotemporal scales and maintaining transparency and accessibility of data and analyses. This analysis focuses on two California oil fields, but the methods used and processes affecting fluid migration could be relevant in other oil fields where substantial injection/production of oil-field water occurs and oil-well integrity is of concern.

California↗

Groundwater development leads to decreasing arsenic concentrations in the San Joaquin Valley, California

In the San Joaquin Valley (SJV), California, about 10% of drinking water wells since 2010 had arsenic concentrations above the US maximum contaminant level of 10 μg/L. High concentrations of arsenic are often associated with high pH (greater than 7.8) or reduced geochemical conditions. Although most wells have low arsenic (<3 μg/L) and do not have changing arsenic concentrations, this study found that most wells with concentrations above 10 μg/L had arsenic trends. Overall, about 24% of wells had time-series trends since 2010 and 59% had paired-sample trends since 2000. Most wells had decreasing arsenic trends, even in wells with higher arsenic concentrations. These wells often had co-detections of increasing nitrate and sulfate trends that reflect oxic groundwater likely derived from agricultural recharge. Wells with increasing arsenic trends were deeper or located in the valley trough where aquifer materials are more fine-grained and where reducing conditions favor arsenic mobility. Wells with arsenic trends also tend to be clustered near areas of higher well density. Groundwater pumping in these areas has likely increased the contribution of younger, more oxic groundwater in wells with declining arsenic or, less frequently, increased the contribution of higher pH or reduced groundwater in wells with rising arsenic. Projections of arsenic trends indicate that 37 wells with high arsenic presently will be below 10 μg/L in ten years. Unfortunately, these improvements will be largely offset by 31 wells that are expected to increase above 10 μg/L in addition to expected rises in nitrate in wells where arsenic decreased. This study shows how human-altered flow systems can impact the natural geochemical character of water in both beneficial and deleterious ways.

California↗

Biodegradation of organic chemicals in soil/water microcosms system: Model development

The chemical interactions of hydrophobic organic contaminants with soils and sediments may result in strong binding and slow subsequent release rates that significantly affect remediation rates and endpoints. In order to illustrate the recalcitrance of chemical to degradation on sites, a sorption mechanism of intraparticle sequestration was postulated to operate on chemical remediation sites. Pseudo-first order sequestration kinetics is used in the study with the hypothesis that sequestration is an irreversibly surface-mediated process. A mathematical model based on mass balance equations was developed to describe the fate of chemical degradation in soil/water microcosm systems. In the model, diffusion was represented by Fick's second law, local sorption-desorption by a linear isotherm, irreversible sequestration by a pseudo-first order kinetics and biodegradation by Monod kinetics. Solutions were obtained to provide estimates of chemical concentrations. The mathematical model was applied to a benzene biodegradation batch test and simulated model responses correlated well compared to measurements of biodegradation of benzene in the batch soil/water microcosm system. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the effects of several parameters on model behavior. Overall chemical removal rate decreased and sequestration increased quickly with an increase in the sorption partition coefficient. When soil particle radius, a, was greater than 1 mm, an increase in radius produced a significant decrease in overall chemical removal rate as well as an increase in sequestration. However, when soil particle radius was less than 0.1 mm, an increase in radius resulted in small changes in the removal rate and sequestration. As pseudo-first order sequestration rate increased, both chemical removal rate and sequestration increased slightly. Model simulation results showed that desorption resistance played an important role in the bioavailability of organic chemicals in porous media. Complete biostabilization of chemicals on remediation sites can be achieved when the concentration of the reversibly sorbed chemical reduces to zero (i.e., undetectable), with a certain amount of irreversibly sequestrated chemical left inside the soil particle solid phase. ?? 2006 Springer Science + Business Media B.V.

Water, Air, & Soil Pollution↗

A characterization of the deep-sea coral and sponge community along the Oregon Coast using a remotely operated vehicle on the EXPRESS 2022 expedition

Deep-sea coral and sponge (DSCS) communities serve as essential fish habitat (EFH) by providing shelter and nursery habitat, increasing diversity, and increasing prey availability (Freese and Wing, 2003; Bright, 2007; Baillon et al., 2012; Henderson et al., 2020). Off the U.S. West Coast, threats to these long-lived, fragile organisms from bottom contact fishing gear, potential offshore renewable energy development, and ocean warming and acidification have been the subject of recent research (Gomez et al., 2018; Salgado et al., 2018; Yoklavich, et al., 2018; Gugliotti et al., 2019). Other DSCS studies have reported new species (Yoklavich and Love, 2005), analyzed species distribution and abundance (Tissot et al., 2006, Watters et al., 2022), developed predictive distribution models (Huff et al., 2013; Rooper et al., 2017; Kreidler, 2020), and discovered medicinal uses for corals and sponges (Essack et al., 2011; Shrestha et al., 2018). Due to the vast area of unexplored seafloor within the territorial waters and the U.S. exclusive economic zone (EEZ; 12-200 nautical miles off the coast) and the technological requirements and expense of deep-sea research, there is still much to learn about the distributions and biology of DSCS. This information is critical to resource managers for effective conservation and management of DSCS habitats. In order to minimize the adverse impacts of fishing on EFH, the Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC) and National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) designated several seafloor habitat areas as EFH conservation areas (EFHCA), first in 2006 (as part of Amendment 19 to the Pacific coast groundfish fishery management plan) and then again in 2020 (as part of Amendment 28). These areas are closed to bottom trawl fishing at a minimum, and in some cases to all bottom contact fishing gears. In addition to protections afforded by EFH-related regulations, the National Marine Sanctuary Program prohibits certain non-fishing activities within areas designated as national marine sanctuaries, such as oil and gas exploration or extraction, cable laying, and other forms of seabed alteration or construction that disturb benthic communities. NOAA’s Deep-Sea Coral and Research Technology Program (DSCRTP) began a 4-yr funding initiative for the U.S. West Coast in 2017. The goals of the West Coast Deep-Sea Coral Initiative (WCDSCI) were to: 1) gather baseline information on areas subject to fishing regulation changes prior to the implementation of Amendment 28; 2) improve our understanding of known DSCS bycatch “hot spots”; and 3) explore and assess DSCS resources within NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries with emphasis on areas of sanctuary resource protection and management concerns. As part of the WCDSCU, an 11-day expedition (3 Sep – 13 Sep 2022) was launched from the NOAA Ship Bell M. Shimada, beginning and ending in Newport, OR. The science team assembled for this cruise were members of the EXpanding Pacific Research and Exploration of Submerged Systems (EXPRESS) campaign, which brings together researchers from federal and nonfederal institutions to collaborate on scientific expeditions targeting the deepwater areas off California, Oregon, and Washington. EXPRESS supports researchers leveraging funding, resources, personnel, and expertise to accomplish more science than would have been possible by a single entity alone. The 2022 expedition included research partners from National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Southwest Fisheries Science Center (SWFSC) and Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NWFSC), Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Pacific Fisheries Management Council Habitat Committee, and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

Report↗

Bias correction of simulated historical daily streamflow at ungauged locations by using independently estimated flow duration curves

In many simulations of historical daily streamflow distributional bias arising from the distributional properties of residuals has been noted. This bias often presents itself as an underestimation of high streamflow and an overestimation of low streamflow. Here, 1168 streamgages across the conterminous USA, having at least 14 complete water years of daily data between 1 October 1980 and 30 September 2013, are used to explore a method for rescaling simulated streamflow to correct the distributional bias. Based on an existing approach that separates the simulated streamflow into components of temporal structure and magnitude, the temporal structure is converted to simulated nonexceedance probabilities and the magnitudes are rescaled using an independently estimated flow duration curve (FDC) derived from regional regression. In this study, this method is applied to a pooled ordinary kriging simulation of daily streamflow coupled with FDCs estimated by regional regression on basin characteristics. The improvement in the representation of high and low streamflows is correlated with the accuracy and unbiasedness of the estimated FDC. The method is verified by using an idealized case; however, with the introduction of regionally regressed FDCs developed for this study, the method is only useful overall for the upper tails, which are more accurately and unbiasedly estimated than the lower tails. It remains for future work to determine how accurate the estimated FDCs need to be to be useful for bias correction without unduly reducing accuracy. In addition to its potential efficacy for distributional bias correction, this particular instance of the methodology also represents a generalization of nonlinear spatial interpolation of daily streamflow using FDCs. Rather than relying on single index stations, as is commonly done to reflect streamflow timing, this approach to simulation leverages geostatistical tools to allow a region of neighbors to reflect streamflow timing.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

Long-term patterns in growth of White Sturgeon in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River basin, California.

Introduction: The Sacramento-San Joaquin River system (SSJ) of California includes both riverine, delta, and estuarine habitats and is among the most modified aquatic ecosystems in the United States. Water development projects in the system are associated with declines of many native species, including White Sturgeon Acipenser transmontanus . Methods: We used White Sturgeon pectoral fin rays collected from 1983 to 2016 throughout the SSJ to assess long-term changes in growth and associations with thermal and hydrological conditions (i.e., temperature, discharge, salinity). Age and growth were estimated from 1,897 White Sturgeon varying in fork length from 25 to 210 cm and from age 0 to 33. Results: Age structure varied through time with the oldest fish generally sampled during the mid-1980s. Growth of White Sturgeon in 1951–1970 was slower than growth of fish in 1971–1990 and 1991–2012. Growth of White Sturgeon during 1991–2012 was ~10% higher than during other time periods. Discussion: Little variation in growth was explained by environmental covariates, suggesting that annual growth was likely influenced by factors not measured in our study. Alternatively, population structure and movement behavior of White Sturgeon in the SSJ may be such that the scale (i.e., spatial or temporal) of available habitat covariates was mismatched to the scale at which growth of White Sturgeon responds. Increased growth in recent times may be partly due to density-dependent processes in association with substantial declines in White Sturgeon population abundance over the last several decades. This research provides important information on long-term patterns in growth that contributes to the conservation and management of White Sturgeon in the SSJ and beyond.

California↗

Initiation of migration and movement rates of Atlantic salmon smolts in fresh water

Timing of ocean entry is critical for marine survival of both hatchery and wild Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) smolts. Management practices and barriers to migration such as dams may constrain timing of smolt migrations resulting in suboptimal performance at saltwater entry. We modeled influences of stocking location, smolt development, and environmental conditions on ( i ) initiation of migration by hatchery-reared smolts and ( ii ) movement rate of hatchery- and wild-reared Atlantic salmon smolts in the Penobscot River, Maine, USA, from 2005 through 2014 using acoustic telemetry data. We also compared movement rates in free-flowing reaches with rates in reaches with hydropower dams and head ponds. We compared movement rates before and after (1) removal of two mainstem dams and (2) construction of new powerhouses. Initiation of movement by hatchery fish was influenced by smolt development, stocking location, and environmental conditions. Smolts with the greatest gill Na + , K + -ATPase (NKA) activity initiated migration 24 h sooner than fish with the lowest gill NKA activity. Fish with the greatest cumulative thermal experience initiated migration 5 days earlier than those with lowest cumulative thermal experience. Smolts released furthest from the ocean initiated migration earlier than those released downstream, but movement rate increased by fivefold closer to the ocean, indicating behavioral trade-offs between initiation and movement rate. Dams had a strong effect on movement rate. Movement rate increased from 2.8 to 5.4 km&middot;h &minus;1 in reaches where dams were removed, but decreased from 2.1 to 0.1 km&middot;h &minus;1 in reaches where new powerhouses were constructed. Movement rate varied throughout the migratory period and was inversely related to temperature. Fish moved slower at extreme high or low discharge. Responses in fish movement rates to dam removal indicate the potential scope of recovery for these activities.

Maine↗

Semi-arid vegetation response to antecedent climate and water balance windows

Questions Can we improve understanding of vegetation response to water availability on monthly time scales in semi-arid environments using remote sensing methods? What climatic or water balance variables and antecedent windows of time associated with these variables best relate to the condition of vegetation? Can we develop credible near-term forecasts from climate data that can be used to prepare for future climate change effects on vegetation? Location Semi-arid grasslands in Capitol Reef National Park, Utah, USA. Methods We built vegetation response models by relating the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from MODIS imagery in Mar&ndash;Nov 2000&ndash;2013 to antecedent climate and water balance variables preceding the monthly NDVI observations. We compared how climate and water balance variables explained vegetation greenness and then used a multi-model ensemble of climate and water balance models to forecast monthly NDVI for three holdout years. Results Water balance variables explained vegetation greenness to a greater degree than climate variables for most growing season months. Seasonally important variables included measures of antecedent water input and storage in spring, switching to indicators of drought, input or use in summer, followed by antecedent moisture availability in autumn. In spite of similar climates, there was evidence the grazed grassland showed a response to drying conditions 1 mo sooner than the ungrazed grassland. Lead times were generally short early in the growing season and antecedent window durations increased from 3 mo early in the growing season to 1 yr or more as the growing season progressed. Forecast accuracy for three holdout years using a multi-model ensemble of climate and water balance variables outperformed forecasts made with a na&iuml;ve NDVI climatology. Conclusions We determined the influence of climate and water balance on vegetation at a fine temporal scale, which presents an opportunity to forecast vegetation response with short lead times. This understanding was obtained through high-frequency vegetation monitoring using remote sensing, which reduces the costs and time necessary for field measurements and can lead to more rapid detection of vegetation changes that could help managers take appropriate actions.

Applied Vegetation Science↗

Computational approaches improve evidence synthesis and inform broad fisheries trends

Addressing ecological impacts with effective conservation actions requires information on the links between human pressures and localized responses. Understanding links is a priority for many conservation contexts, including the world's fresh waters, which face intensifying threats to disproportionately high species diversity, including more than half of the world's fish species. Literature synthesis can uncover links and highlight potential research gaps, yet can be very cumbersome and time consuming. Emerging tools like text mining can improve efficiency in extracting relevant information from vast scientific outputs. This study synthesizes evidence of direct anthropogenic threats to major inland fisheries and examines driver-impact-response patterns using coupled automated and manual text classification methods. We screened 9336 abstracts from 45 river basins of high importance to inland fish production; 1152 abstracts contained evidence of direct threats to fish. The most common documented drivers were pollution, dams, and fishing pressure, which were most strongly linked to decreased fitness, altered reproduction, and mortality, respectively. Strong impact-response links to pollution signal potential bias toward documenting acute threats that generate more visible and immediate impacts. The use of machine learning-based text classification performed best in classifying extraneous information. Results can inform the development of inland fisheries indicators and threat-based metrics, highlight possible evidence gaps in linking global drivers to fishery-level responses, and illustrate the application of a coupled synthesis approach for improved efficiency and extraction of information relevant to conservation outcomes. The associated user and interpretation guides address accessibility and technical barriers faced by conservation scientists to improve efficiency in evidence synthesis.

Conservation Science and Practice↗