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Results for “Climate Change Ecology”

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At least 1,189 records · Page 66Linked to original sources
USGS2004

Use of a latitudinal gradient in bald cypress (Taxodium distichum) production to examine physiological controls of biotic boundaries and potential responses to environment change

Aim: Predictions of vegetation change with global warming require models that accurately reflect physiological processes underlying growth limitations and species distributions. However, information about environmental controls on physiology and consequent effects on species boundaries and ecosystem functions such as production is limited, especially for forested wetlands that are potentially important carbon sinks. Location: The bald cypress (Taxodium distichum) region of the south-eastern United States was studied to examine how production of an important forested wetland varies with latitude and temperature as well as local hydrology. Methods: We used published data to analyse litter production across a latitudinal gradient from 26.2 to 37.8?? N to determine how bald cypress swamps might respond to alternate climate conditions and what changes might occur throughout the distributional range. Results: Litterfall rates followed a bell shaped curve, indicating that production was more limited at the distributional boundaries (c. 225 g/m2 year-1) compared to the mid-range (795-1126 g/m2 year-1). This pattern suggests that conditions are sub-optimal near both boundaries and that the absence of populations outside this latitudinal range may be largely due to physiological constraints on the carbon balance of dominant species. While dispersal limitations cannot be totally discounted, competition with other wetland types at the extremes of the range does not seem likely to be important because the relative basal area of bald cypress does not decrease near the edges of the range. Impaired hydrology depressed production across the entire range, but more in the south than the north. Main conclusions: Our findings suggest that (1) physiological limitations constrain biotic boundaries of bald cypress swamps; (2) future changes in global temperature would affect litter production in a nonlinear manner across the distributional range; (3) local changes in hydrology may interact with climate to further reduce litter production, particularly at lower latitudes; and (4) southernmost forests could be extirpated if environmental conditions compromise carbon balance and water-use efficiency of trees. ?? 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗
USGS2001

Abiotic vs. biotic influences on habitat selection of coexisting species: Climate change impacts?

Species are commonly segregated along gradients of microclimate and vegetation. I explore the question of whether segregation is the result of microhabitat partitioning (biotic effects) or choice of differing microclimates (abiotic effects). I explored this question for four ground-nesting bird species that are segregated along a microclimate and vegetation gradient in Arizona. Birds shifted position of their nests on the microhabitat and microclimate gradient in response to changing precipitation over nine years. Similarly, annual bird abundance varied with precipitation across 12 yr. Those shifts in abundance and nesting microhabitat with changing precipitation demonstrate the importance of abiotic influences on bird distributions and habitat choice. However, nest-site shifts and microhabitat use also appear to be influenced by interactions among coexisting species. Moreover, shifts in habitat use by all species caused nest predation (i.e., biotic) costs that increased with increasing distance along the microclimate gradient. These results indicate that abiotic and biotic costs can strongly interact to influence microhabitat choice and abundances of coexisting species. Global climate change impacts have been considered largely in terms of simple distributional shifts, but these results indicate that shifts can also increase biotic costs when species move into habitat types for which they are poorly adapted or that create new biotic interactions.

Arizona↗
USGS2003

Understanding climatic impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation in the United States: Building a capacity for assessment

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2014

Ecological site-based assessments of wind and water erosion: informing accelerated soil erosion management in rangelands

Accelerated soil erosion occurs when anthropogenic processes modify soil, vegetation or climatic conditions causing erosion rates at a location to exceed their natural variability. Identifying where and when accelerated erosion occurs is a critical first step toward its effective management. Here we explore how erosion assessments structured in the context of ecological sites (a land classification based on soils, landscape setting and ecological potential) and their vegetation states (plant assemblages that may change due to management) can inform systems for reducing accelerated soil erosion in rangelands. We evaluated aeolian horizontal sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion rates for five ecological sites in southern New Mexico, USA, using monitoring data and rangeland-specific wind and water erosion models. Across the ecological sites, plots in shrub-encroached and shrub-dominated vegetation states were consistently susceptible to aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion. Both processes were found to be highly variable for grassland and grass-succulent states across the ecological sites at the plot scale (0.25 Ha). We identify vegetation thresholds that define cover levels below which rapid (exponential) increases in aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion occur across the ecological sites and vegetation states. Aeolian sediment flux and fluvial erosion in the study area can be effectively controlled when bare ground cover is <20% of a site or the cover of canopy interspaces >100 cm in length is less than ~35%. Land use and management activities that alter cover levels such that they cross thresholds, and/or drive vegetation state changes, may increase the susceptibility of areas to erosion. Land use impacts that are constrained within the range of natural variability should not result in accelerated soil erosion. Evaluating land condition against the erosion thresholds identified here will enable identification of areas susceptible to accelerated soil erosion and the development of practical management solutions.

New Mexico↗
USGS2006

Potential effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on coastal wetlands

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration in the atmosphere has steadily increased from 280 parts per million (ppm) in preindustrial times to 381 ppm today and is predicted by some models to double within the next century. Some of the important pathways whereby changes in atmospheric CO 2 may impact coastal wetlands include changes in temperature, rainfall, and hurricane intensity ( fig. 1 ). Increases in CO 2 can contribute to global warming, which may (1) accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice fields and steric expansion of oceans, (2) alter rainfall patterns and salinity regimes, and (3) change the intensity and frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes. Sea-level rise combined with changes in storm activity may affect erosion and sedimentation rates and patterns in coastal wetlands and maintenance of soil elevations. Feedback loops between plant growth and hydroedaphic conditions also contribute to maintenance of marsh elevations through accumulation of organic matter. Although increasing CO 2 concentration may contribute to global warming and climate changes, it may also have a direct impact on plant growth and development by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use efficiency. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey are examining responses of wetland plants to elevated CO 2 concentration and other factors. This research will lead to a better understanding of future changes in marsh species composition, successional rates and patterns, ecological functioning, and vulnerability to sea-level rise and other global change factors.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS1999

Modeling the effects of land use and climate change on riverine smallmouth bass

Anthropogenic changes in temperature and stream flow, associated with watershed land use and climate change, are critical influences on the distribution and abundance of riverine fishes. To project the effects of changing land use and climate, we modeled a smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) population in a midwestern USA, large river–floodplain ecosystem under historical (1915–1925), present (1977–1990), and future (2060, influenced by climate change) temperature and flow regimes. The age-structured model included parameters for temperature and river discharge during critical seasonal periods, fish population dynamics, and fishing harvest. Model relationships were developed from empirical field data collected over a 13-yr period. Sensitivity analyses indicated that discharge during the spawning/rearing period had a greater effect on adult density and fishing yield than did spawning/rearing temperature or winter discharge. Simulations for 100 years projected a 139% greater mean fish density under a historical flow regime (64.9 fish/ha) than that estimated for the present (27.1 fish/ha) with a sustainable fishing harvest under both flow regimes. Simulations under future climate-change-induced temperature and flow regimes with present land use projected a 69% decrease in mean fish density (8.5 fish/ha) from present and an unstable population that went extinct during 56% of the simulations. However, when simulated under a future climate-altered temperature and flow regime with historical land use, the population increased by 66% (45.0 fish/ha) from present and sustained a harvest. Our findings suggest that land-use changes may be a greater detriment to riverine fishes than projected climate change and that the combined effects of both factors may lead to local species extinction. However, the negative effects of increased temperature and precipitation associated with future global warming could be mitigated by river channel, floodplain, and watershed restoration.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2014

The interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and a non-native predators on stream-rearing salmon

Predicting how climate change is likely to interact with myriad other stressors that threaten species of conservation concern is an essential challenge in aquatic ecosystems. This study provides a framework to accomplish this task in salmon-bearing streams of the northwestern United States, where land-use related reductions in riparian shading have caused changes in stream thermal regimes, and additional warming from projected climate change may result in significant losses of coldwater fish habitat over the next century. Predatory non-native smallmouth bass have also been introduced into many northwestern streams and their range is likely to expand as streams warm, presenting an additional challenge to the persistence of threatened Pacific salmon. The goal of this work was to forecast the interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and non-native species on stream-rearing salmon, and to evaluate the capacity of restoration to mitigate these effects. We intersected downscaled global climate forecasts with a local-scale water temperature model to predict mid- and end-of-century temperatures in streams in the Columbia River basin; we compared one stream that is thermally impaired due to the loss of riparian vegetation and another that is cooler and has a largely intact riparian corridor. Using the forecasted stream temperatures in conjunction with fish-habitat models, we predicted how stream-rearing Chinook salmon and bass distributions would change as each stream warmed. In the highly modified stream, end-of-century warming may cause near total loss of Chinook salmon rearing habitat and a complete invasion of the upper watershed by bass. In the less modified stream, bass were thermally restricted from the upstream-most areas. In both systems, temperature increases resulted in higher predicted spatial overlap between stream-rearing Chinook salmon and potentially predatory bass in the early summer (2-4-fold increase) and greater abundance of bass. We found that riparian restoration could prevent the extirpation of Chinook salmon from the more altered stream, and could also restrict bass from occupying the upper 31 km of salmon rearing habitat. The proposed methodology and model predictions are critical for prioritizing climate-change adaptation strategies before salmonids are exposed to both warmer water and greater predation risk by non-native species.

Oregon↗
USGS2024

Thermal and hydrological limitations on modeling carbon dynamics at wetland sites of discontinuous and continuous permafrost extent

Accurate representation of cryohydrological processes is fundamental for biosphere models, particularly at high-latitudes, given their influence on carbon and permafrost dynamics in carbon-rich peatlands and wetlands. This study analyzes site-level simulations in moist and wet drainage conditions in continuous or discontinuous permafrost regions, using a terrestrial ecosystem model DVM-DOS-TEM. Functional benchmarking was conducted against eddy covariance flux alongside soil temperature, moisture, and thaw depth observations. Thermal and hydrological analysis reveals parameter sensitivity and uncertainty concerning carbon cycling and permafrost dynamics. Flux representation is markedly consistent at sites characterized by continuous permafrost with less seasonal variation, owing to longer soil freezing duration. Sites in discontinuous permafrost, exhibiting active permafrost degradation and talik formation, pose considerable challenges in accurately depicting thaw depth. Underprediction of soil moisture across all sites has more pronounced effects on boreal wetlands characterized by thick organic layers up to 1 m. These results illustrate the limitations of terrestrial ecosystem models to represent environmental and ecological dynamics in wetlands. Attempts to adjust model hydrology have yielded marginal improvements in thaw depth prediction, but revealed large effects of abrupt phase changes for poorly drained sites on discontinuous permafrost. Our analysis suggests the importance of gradual phase change representation, particularly in ice-rich wetlands with thick organic layers, which will be crucial when evaluating the permafrost carbon-climate feedback in model projections.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

Younger-Dryas cooling and sea-ice feedbacks were prominent features of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition in Arctic Alaska

Declining sea-ice extent is currently amplifying climate warming in the Arctic. Instrumental records at high latitudes are too short-term to provide sufficient historical context for these trends, so paleoclimate archives are needed to better understand the functioning of the sea ice-albedo feedback. Here we use the oxygen isotope values of wood cellulose in living and sub-fossil willow shrubs (δ 18 O wc ) ( Salix spp.) that have been radiocarbon-dated ( 14 C) to produce a multi-millennial record of climatic change on Alaska's North Slope during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition (13,500–7500 calibrated 14 C years before present; 13.5–7.5 ka). We first analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of δ 18 O wc in living willows growing at upland sites and found that over the last 30 years δ 18 O wc values in individual growth rings correlate with local summer temperature and inter-annual variations in summer sea-ice extent. Deglacial δ 18 O wc values from 145 samples of subfossil willows clearly record the Allerød warm period (∼13.2 ka), the Younger Dryas cold period (12.9–11.7 ka), and the Holocene Thermal Maximum (11.7–9.0 ka). The magnitudes of isotopic changes over these rapid climate oscillations were ∼4.5‰, which is about 60% of the differences in δ 18 O wc between those willows growing during the last glacial period and today. Modeling of isotope-precipitation relationships based on Rayleigh distillation processes suggests that during the Younger Dryas these large shifts in δ 18 O wc values were caused by interactions between local temperature and changes in evaporative moisture sources, the latter controlled by seaice extent in the Arctic Ocean and Bering Sea. Based on these results and on the effects that sea-ice have on climate today, we infer that ocean-derived feedbacks amplified temperature changes and enhanced precipitation in coastal regions of Arctic Alaska during warm times in the past. Today, isotope values in willows on the North Slope of Alaska are similar to those growing during the warmest times of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, which were times of widespread permafrost thaw and striking ecological changes.

Alaska↗
USGS2006

The global topography mission gains momentum

An accurate description of the surface elevation of the Earth is of fundamental importance to many branches of Earth science. Continental topographic data are required for studies of hydrology, ecology, glaciology, geomorphology, and atmospheric circulation. For example, in hydrologic and terrestrial ecosystem studies, topography exerts significant control on intercepted solar radiation, water runoff and subsurface water inventory, microclimate, vegetation type and distribution, and soil development. The topography of the polar ice caps and mountain glaciers directly reflects ice-flow dynamics and is closely linked to global climate and sea level change.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2017

Using variance structure to quantify responses to perturbation in fish catches

We present a case study evaluation of gill-net catches of Walleye Sander vitreus to assess potential effects of large-scale changes in Oneida Lake, New York, including the disruption of trophic interactions by double-crested cormorants Phalacrocorax auritus and invasive dreissenid mussels. We used the empirical long-term gill-net time series and a negative binomial linear mixed model to partition the variability in catches into spatial and coherent temporal variance components, hypothesizing that variance partitioning can help quantify spatiotemporal variability and determine whether variance structure differs before and after large-scale perturbations. We found that the mean catch and the total variability of catches decreased following perturbation but that not all sampling locations responded in a consistent manner. There was also evidence of some spatial homogenization concurrent with a restructuring of the relative productivity of individual sites. Specifically, offshore sites generally became more productive following the estimated break point in the gill-net time series. These results provide support for the idea that variance structure is responsive to large-scale perturbations; therefore, variance components have potential utility as statistical indicators of response to a changing environment more broadly. The modeling approach described herein is flexible and would be transferable to other systems and metrics. For example, variance partitioning could be used to examine responses to alternative management regimes, to compare variability across physiographic regions, and to describe differences among climate zones. Understanding how individual variance components respond to perturbation may yield finer-scale insights into ecological shifts than focusing on patterns in the mean responses or total variability alone.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗
USGS2015

Indicators of climate impacts for forests: Recommendations for the U.S. National Climate Assessment Indicators system

The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) process for the United States focused in part on developing a system of indicators to communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness to inform decisionmakers and the public. Initially, 13 active teams were formed to recommend indicators in a range of categories, including forest, agriculture, grassland, phenology, mitigation, and physical climate. This publication describes the work of the Forest Indicators Technical Team. We briefly describe the NCA indicator system effort, propose and explain our conceptual model for the forest system, present our methods, and discuss our recommendations. Climate is only one driver of changes in U.S. forests; other drivers include socioeconomic drivers such as population and culture, and other environmental drivers such as nutrients, light, and disturbance. We offer additional details of our work for transparency and to inform an NCA indicator Web portal. We recommend metrics for 11 indicators of climate impacts on forest, spanning the range of important aspects of forest as an ecological type and as a sector. Some indicators can be reported in a Web portal now; others need additional work for reporting in the near future. Indicators such as budburst, which are important to forest but more relevant to other NCA indicator teams, are identified. Potential indicators that need more research are also presented.

Report↗
USGS2009

A New Map of Standardized Terrestrial Ecosystems of the Conterminous United States

A new map of standardized, mesoscale (tens to thousands of hectares) terrestrial ecosystems for the conterminous United States was developed by using a biophysical stratification approach. The ecosystems delineated in this top-down, deductive modeling effort are described in NatureServe's classification of terrestrial ecological systems of the United States. The ecosystems were mapped as physically distinct areas and were associated with known distributions of vegetation assemblages by using a standardized methodology first developed for South America. This approach follows the geoecosystems concept of R.J. Huggett and the ecosystem geography approach of R.G. Bailey. Unique physical environments were delineated through a geospatial combination of national data layers for biogeography, bioclimate, surficial materials lithology, land surface forms, and topographic moisture potential. Combining these layers resulted in a comprehensive biophysical stratification of the conterminous United States, which produced 13,482 unique biophysical areas. These were considered as fundamental units of ecosystem structure and were aggregated into 419 potential terrestrial ecosystems. The ecosystems classification effort preceded the mapping effort and involved the independent development of diagnostic criteria, descriptions, and nomenclature for describing expert-derived ecological systems. The aggregation and labeling of the mapped ecosystem structure units into the ecological systems classification was accomplished in an iterative, expert-knowledge-based process using automated rulesets for identifying ecosystems on the basis of their biophysical and biogeographic attributes. The mapped ecosystems, at a 30-meter base resolution, represent an improvement in spatial and thematic (class) resolution over existing ecoregionalizations and are useful for a variety of applications, including ecosystem services assessments, climate change impact studies, biodiversity conservation, and resource management.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2022

Are you sleeping? Are you sleeping? Predicting invasion potential of sleeper species

Sleeper species are non-native species that are established in a region and could become invasive as climate change makes conditions more favorable for many non-native species. Before we can manage potential sleepers, we must first know their identity. We analyzed non-native, established plants in the Northeast United States (CT, MA, ME, NH, NY, RI, VT) using the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) protocol to identify species that have negative impacts on native ecological communities as well as negative impacts on agriculture, economies, or human health. Here, we highlight four potential sleeper species to watch out for. A full list of potential sleeper species and reported impacts can be found at https://doi.org/10.7275/yfss-tt69.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
USGS2012

A climate for speciation: rapid spatial diversification within the Sorex cinereus complex of shrews

The cyclic climate regime of the late Quaternary caused dramatic environmental change at high latitudes. Although these events may have been brief in periodicity from an evolutionary standpoint, multiple episodes of allopatry and divergence have been implicated in rapid radiations of a number of organisms. Shrews of the Sorex cinereus complex have long challenged taxonomists due to similar morphology and parapatric geographic ranges. Here, multi-locus phylogenetic and demographic assessments using a coalescent framework were combined to investigate spatiotemporal evolution of 13 nominal species with a widespread distribution throughout North America and across Beringia into Siberia. For these species, we first test a hypothesis of recent differentiation in response to Pleistocene climate versus more ancient divergence that would coincide with pre-Pleistocene perturbations. We then investigate the processes driving diversification over multiple continents. Our genetic analyses highlight novel diversity within these morphologically conserved mammals and clarify relationships between geographic distribution and evolutionary history. Demography within and among species indicates both regional stability and rapid expansion. Ancestral ecological differentiation coincident with early cladogenesis within the complex enabled alternating and repeated episodes of allopatry and expansion where successive glacial and interglacial phases each promoted divergence. The Sorex cinereus complex constitutes a valuable model for future comparative assessments of evolution in response to cyclic environmental change.

Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution↗
USGS2005

Effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning: a consensus of current knowledge

Humans are altering the composition of biological communities through a variety of activities that increase rates of species invasions and species extinctions, at all scales, from local to global. These changes in components of the Earth's biodiversity cause concern for ethical and aesthetic reasons, but they also have a strong potential to alter ecosystem properties and the goods and services they provide to humanity. Ecological experiments, observations, and theoretical developments show that ecosystem properties depend greatly on biodiversity in terms of the functional characteristics of organisms present in the ecosystem and the distribution and abundance of those organisms over space and time. Species effects act in concert with the effects of climate, resource availability, and disturbance regimes in influencing ecosystem properties. Human activities can modify all of the above factors; here we focus on modification of these biotic controls. The scientific community has come to a broad consensus on many aspects of the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, including many points relevant to management of ecosystems. Further progress will require integration of knowledge about biotic and abiotic controls on ecosystem properties, how ecological communities are structured, and the forces driving species extinctions and invasions. To strengthen links to policy and management, we also need to integrate our ecological knowledge with understanding of the social and economic constraints of potential management practices. Understanding this complexity, while taking strong steps to minimize current losses of species, is necessary for responsible management of Earth's ecosystems and the diverse biota they contain. Based on our review of the scientific literature, we are certain of the following conclusions: 1) Species' functional characteristics strongly influence ecosystem properties. Functional characteristics operate in a variety of contexts, including effects of dominant species, keystone species, ecological engineers, and interactions among species (e.g., competition, facilitation, mutualism, disease, and predation). Relative abundance alone is not always a good predictor of the ecosystem-level importance of a species, as even relatively rare species (e.g., a keystone predator) can strongly influence pathways of energy and material flows. 2) Alteration of biota in ecosystems via species invasions and extinctions caused by human activities has altered ecosystem goods and services in many well-documented cases. Many of these changes are difficult, expensive, or impossible to reverse or fix with technological solutions. 3) The effects of species loss or changes in composition, and the mechanisms by which the effects manifest themselves, can differ among ecosystem properties, ecosystem types, and pathways of potential community change. 4) Some ecosystem properties are initially insensitive to species loss because (a) ecosystems may have multiple species that carry out similar functional roles, (b) some species may contribute relatively little to ecosystem properties, or (c) properties may be primarily controlled by abiotic environmental conditions. 5) More species are needed to insure a stable supply of ecosystem goods and services as spatial and temporal variability increases, which typically occurs as longer time periods and larger areas are considered. We have high confidence in the following conclusions: 1) Certain combinations of species are complementary in their patterns of resource use and can increase average rates of productivity and nutrient retention. At the same time, environmental conditions can influence the importance of complementarity in structuring communities. Identification of which and how many species act in a complementary way in complex communities is just beginning. 2) Susceptibility to invasion by exotic species is strongly influenced by species composition and, under similar environmental conditions, generally decreases with increasing species richness. However, several other factors, such as propagule pressure, disturbance regime, and resource availability also strongly influence invasion success and often override effects of species richness in comparisons across different sites or ecosystems. 3) Having a range of species that respond differently to different environmental perturbations can stabilize ecosystem process rates in response to disturbances and variation in abiotic conditions. Using practices that maintain a diversity of organisms of different functional effect and functional response types will help preserve a range of management options. Uncertainties remain and further research is necessary in the following areas: 1) Further resolution of the relationships among taxonomic diversity, functional diversity, and community structure is important for identifying mechanisms of biodiversity effects. 2) Multiple trophic levels are common to ecosystems but have been understudied in biodiversity/ecosystem functioning research. The response of ecosystem properties to varying composition and diversity of consumer organisms is much more complex than responses seen in experiments that vary only the diversity of primary producers. 3) Theoretical work on stability has outpaced experimental work, especially field research. We need long-term experiments to be able to assess temporal stability, as well as experimental perturbations to assess response to and recovery from a variety of disturbances. Design and analysis of such experiments must account for several factors that covary with species diversity. 4) Because biodiversity both responds to and influences ecosystem properties, understanding the feedbacks involved is necessary to integrate results from experimental communities with patterns seen at broader scales. Likely patterns of extinction and invasion need to be linked to different drivers of global change, the forces that structure communities, and controls on ecosystem properties for the development of effective management and conservation strategies. 5) This paper focuses primarily on terrestrial systems, with some coverage of freshwater systems, because that is where most empirical and theoretical study has focused. While the fundamental principles described here should apply to marine systems, further study of that realm is necessary. Despite some uncertainties about the mechanisms and circumstances under which diversity influences ecosystem properties, incorporating diversity effects into policy and management is essential, especially in making decisions involving large temporal and spatial scales. Sacrificing those aspects of ecosystems that are difficult or impossible to reconstruct, such as diversity, simply because we are not yet certain about the extent and mechanisms by which they affect ecosystem properties, will restrict future management options even further. It is incumbent upon ecologists to communicate this need, and the values that can derive from such a perspective, to those charged with economic and policy decision-making.

Ecological Monographs↗
USGS2014

Assessing streamflow sensitivity to variations in glacier mass balance

The mountains ringing the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) receive upwards of 4–8 m yr −1 of precipitation (Simpson et al.2005; Weingartner et al. 2005; O’Neel 2012), much of which runs off into productive coastal waters. The alpine landscape is heavily glacierized, and storage and turnover of water by glaciers substantially influences the regional surface water balance (Neal et al. 2010). In turn, the land-to-ocean flux of freshwater impacts the biogeochemistry, physical oceanography, freshwater and marine ecology of the downstream components of the GOA ecosystem (e.g., Royer et al. 2001; Hood and Scott 2008). In this way, the links between terrestrial and ocean ecosystems along the GOA have widespread impacts on regional socioeconomic issues including water and hydropower resources, fish populations, and sea level change (Dorava and Milner 2000; Royer and Grosch 2006; Cherry et al. 2010; Gardner et al. 2013). Moreover, predicting future changes in physical, chemical and biological processes in near-shore ecosystems along the GOA hinges, in part, on developing a robust understanding of water storage and transfer by glaciers through streams to the ocean. Glacierized basins (i.e. presently ice covered as opposed to glaciated, or historically ice covered) are very efficient producers of runoff, yielding 2–10 times greater runoff than similarly sized, non-glacierized basins (Mayo 1984). The unique energy balance that characterizes these basins (Jansson et al. 2003; Hock 2005) results in substantial alterations to streamflow, even when fractional ice coverage is very small (Stahl and Moore 2006). Consistent and precise treatment of glacier runoff is key to accurate assessment of hydrologic, ecological and socioeconomic impacts, but previously used definitions for glacier runoff are variable. They include: 1) meltwater produced as negative annual mass balance (e.g., Fountain and Tangborn 1985); 2) storage changes in the monthly water budget, where solid precipitation is balanced by melt and evaporation (Huss 2011, concept #2); 3) meltwater derived from melting ice only (irrespective of melting snow or mass balance) (Nolin et al. 2010; Huss 2011, concept #1); 4) all meltwater derived from the glacier surface (Cogley et al. 2011, meltwater runoff); 5) total runoff from the glacier surface (meltwater runoff plus rain on the glacier) (Neal et al. 2010). Total glacier runoff (Definitions 4 and 5 above) includes a contribution from annual mass balance, i.e. the sum of accumulation and ablation through a mass balance year (Definition 1), or what has historically been referred to as the “net” balance (Cogley et al. 2011). Indeed, annual balance has been shown to be an important driver of streamflow trends in glacierized basins, with periods of persistent negative annual balance resulting in statistically significant increases in streamflow (e.g., Pellicciotti et al. 2010). However, in maritime climates, anomalies in glacier runoff can be disconnected from annual balance because of the high variability in winter precipitation. For example, positive anomalies in winter accumulation can result in elevated levels of glacier runoff in times of positive annual mass balance (Thayyen and Gergan 2010). Quantifying the impacts of changing glacier geometries (annual balance) on glacier runoff is essential for predicting future changes in streamflow in glacierized basins. However, determining the role that this component plays in total glacier runoff (Definition 5) requires consistent measurements of seasonal (or shorter period) mass balances, measurements of precipitation at multiple locations within a basin, and streamflow measurements in close proximity to a glacier’s terminus. Practical and logistical challenges associated with assembling such data sets typically preclude such partitioning. As a result, most analyses of the relationship between annual mass balance and streamflow rely on some component of model output to compute glacier runoff (e.g. Huss et al. 2008; Kaser et al. 2010). Ultimately, developing an understanding of how total glacier runoff will change in the future is critical for predicting downstream ecological impacts associated with changes in riverine fluxes of water, sediment, and solutes (e.g., metals and nutrients) to near-shore coastal ecosystems. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate relationships among seasonal and annual glacier mass balances, glacier runoff and streamflow in two glacierized basins in different climate settings. We use long-term glacier mass balance and streamflow datasets from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Alaska Benchmark Glacier Program to compare and contrast glacier-streamflow interactions in a maritime climate (Wolverine Glacier) with those in a continental climate (Gulkana Glacier). Our overall goal is to improve our understanding of how glacier mass balance processes impact streamflow, ultimately improving our conceptual understanding of the future evolution of glacier runoff in continental and maritime climates.

Alaska↗
USGS2006

Mountain hydrology of the western United States

Climate change and climate variability, population growth, and land use change drive the need for new hydrologic knowledge and understanding. In the mountainous West and other similar areas worldwide, three pressing hydrologic needs stand out: first, to better understand the processes controlling the partitioning of energy and water fluxes within and out from these systems; second, to better understand feedbacks between hydrological fluxes and biogeochemical and ecological processes; and, third, to enhance our physical and empirical understanding with integrated measurement strategies and information systems. We envision an integrative approach to monitoring, modeling, and sensing the mountain environment that will improve understanding and prediction of hydrologic fluxes and processes. Here extensive monitoring of energy fluxes and hydrologic states are needed to supplement existing measurements, which are largely limited to streamflow and snow water equivalent. Ground‐based observing systems must be explicitly designed for integration with remotely sensed data and for scaling up to basins and whole ranges.

Water Resources Research↗