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At least 1,189 records · Page 66Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Machine learning application to assess occurrence and saturations of methane hydrate in marine deposits offshore India

Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were used to assess methane hydrate occurrence and saturation in marine sediments offshore India. The ANN analysis classifies the gas hydrate occurrence into three types: methane hydrate in pore space, methane hydrate in fractures, or no methane hydrate. Further, predicted saturation characterizes the volume of gas hydrate with respect to the available void volume. Log data collected at six wells, which were drilled during the India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02), provided a combination of well log measurements that were used as input for machine learning (ML) models. Well log measurements included density, porosity, electrical resistivity, natural gamma radiation, and acoustic wave velocity. Combinations of well logs used in the ML models provide good overall balanced accuracy (0.79 to 0.86) for the prediction of the gas hydrate occurrence and good accuracy (0.68 to 0.92) for methane hydrate saturation prediction in the marine accumulations against reference data. The accuracy scores indicate that the ML models can successfully predict reservoir characteristics for marine methane hydrate deposits. The results indicate that the ML models can either augment physics-driven methods for assessing the occurrence and saturation of methane hydrate deposits or serve as an independent predictive tool for those characteristics.

Journal Interpretation↗
USGS2021

DAS 3DVSP survey at Stratigraphic Test Well (Hydrate-01)

This proceeding outlines the acquisition, processing, and fault interpretation of the largest known onshore distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) 3D vertical seismic profile (VSP) survey. This survey was carried out to detect the distribution of faults near the gas hydrate research well (Stratigraphic Test Well: Hydrate-01) on the North Slope of Alaska within the Prudhoe Bay Unit (PBU). The data were recorded with a single-mode DAS cable which is permanently installed and cemented behind the casing of the Hydrate-01 well. A total of 1701 shot records were successfully acquired in 12 days using a DAS interrogator with two vibroseis sources. The data were converted from strain rate to a geophone equivalent for further data processing. Traveltime tomography was carried out using the first break of each shot and was used to build a 3D tilted transverse isotropy (TTI) velocity model. The data were processed with a sequence designed to produce a precise and high resolution P wave image, that included editing, redatum, band pass filtering, denoise, upgoing / downgoing wavefield separation, deconvolution and migration. Faults around the Hydrate-01 were interpreted using the 3DVSP volume and its attributes. These faults were clearly observed in the 3DVSP volume but they cannot be recognized by an existing 3D surface seismic volume.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2025

Leveraging an observed-data likelihood improves the use of machine learning labels in a Bayesian hierarchical model for bioacoustic data

Classification of massive datasets by machine learning (ML) algorithms is promising for many scientific domains, especially wildlife monitoring programs that rely on passive acoustic surveys for detecting species. However, treating ML-predicted class labels (e.g., species identity) as truth biases inferences of focal parameters within common modeling frameworks. One solution is to model the misclassification process explicitly using human-validated true-class labels for a subset of observations. Validation by experts can present a substantial bottleneck in otherwise efficient workflows that use ML predictions. Bioacoustics practitioners seek guidance on both the quantity and process for selecting ML-labeled data to validate by an expert. We derive an alternative model formulation that jointly models human-validated and ML-predicted class labels with an observed-data likelihood (ODL) and use empirically informed simulations motivated by a real-data application to explore different probability designs for selecting class labels for validation. Simulation results suggest that with smaller validation sets the ODL formulation increases computational speed and reduces estimation error compared to a default MCMC data augmentation routine. Our methodology is transferable to applications that treat predictions from classification algorithms as the response variable of interest.

Annals of Applied Statistics↗
USGS2025

Not all who meander are lost: Migrating sea lamprey follow river thalwegs to facilitate safe and efficient passage upstream

Efficient navigation is crucial for the reproductive success of many migratory species, often driven by competing pressures to conserve energy and reduce predation risk. Little is known about how non-homing species achieve this balance. We show that sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ), an ancient extant vertebrate, uses persistent patterns in hydro-geomorphology to quickly and efficiently navigate through complex ecosystems. Hydrodynamic flow models coupled with bathymetric mapping and fine-scale acoustic telemetry revealed movement paths that tracked thalweg scour channels, which are often the deepest and fastest-flowing sections of a river. These paths allow rapid and efficient upstream migration and suggest the existence of a bathymetric highway system. Near-substrate swimming along this path resulted in a median of 5.8% energy savings while also promoting improved safety from nocturnally active predators. We hypothesize sea lampreys use hydrostatic pressure-guided rheotaxis to achieve this navigation. It is likely this tactic relies on sensory information from the animal's primitive lateral line and perhaps the inner ear. Insights from this study can be used to redesign conservation practices to achieve improved control where the animal is invasive and improved fish passage within its native range.

Michigan↗
USGS1991

An analysis of a seismic reflection from the base of a gas hydrate zone, offshore Peru

Seismic reflection data recorded near ODP Site 688, offshore Peru, exhibit a persistent bottom-simulating reflector (BSR) from a depth corresponding to the theoretical base of the gas hydrate stability field. Although gas hydrate has been recovered in cores from scientific drilling in both the Pacific and the Atlantic, drilling in areas exhibiting a BSR has usually been avoided because of the perceived risk of releasing free gas trapped beneath the hydrated sediments. To carry out a quantitative analysis of the BSR, the seismic data were reprocessed using signature deconvolution and true amplitude recovery techniques. Synthetic seismograms that were created using acoustic parameters extracted from the seismic data and physical properties from Site 688 borehole measurement were compared to the observed seismic data to estimate the thickness of the free-gas zone. Results indicate the BSR is discontinuous laterally. Where the BSR is of high amplitude, free gas in a zone 5.5-17 m thick beneath the hydrated sediments provides the observed waveform; where the BSR amplitude is low, the free-gas zone is much thinner than 5.5 m or is entirely absent.

American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulle↗
USGS1981

Northwest margin of California continental borderland: Marine geology and tectonic evolution

The northwest margin of the California continental borderland consists mainly of two northwest-trending pre-Neogene lithologic belts blanketed by Miocene and younger strata. These belts, which are lithologically and structurally correlated with the Franciscan Complex and Great Valley sequence of northern California, are interpreted to represent facies corresponding to the subduction complex and forearc-basin deposits of a late Mesozoic and Paleogene continental-margin arc-trench system. The outer belt, which forms the acoustic basement underlying the continental slope and Patton Ridge, is characterized by: (1) moderately high compressional velocities (5.1 to 6.2 km/sec), (2) discordant and discontinuous seismic reflectors, and (3) nonfossiliferous and diverse rock types t at range in metamorphic grade from zeolite-bearing arkosic sandstone to blueschist. Landward, the inner Great Valley sequence belt underlies Santa Rosa-Cortes Ridge and Santa Cruz and San Nicolas Basins; in contrast to the outer belt, this belt is characterized by: (1) intermediate compressional velocities (4.5 to 4.6 km/sec), (2) concordant and relatively continuous reflectors, and (3) a thick turbidite sequence of relatively undeformed and unmetamorphosed fossiliferous Cretaceous and Paleogene strata. The inner belt overlies a 6.6-km/sec layer that is probably oceanic crust, a relation consistent with the hypothesis that trapped old oceanic crust underlies the forearc basins along parts of some convergent margins. Well-developed wrench-fault structures in overlying Miocene strata record a transition from Paleogene subduction to Neogene transform faulting. Related events include widespread andesitic to dacitic volcanism and concurrent uplift and erosion of Miocene and older rocks. The proximity of these Miocene silicic volcanic rocks to the paleotrench (< 20 km) is best explained as resulting from passage of the southward-migrating Rivera ridge-fault-trench triple junction along the margin. On the basis of the age of the adjacent sea floor, passage of this triple junction occurred about 17 m.y. ago, a date that corresponds closely to the inception of volcanism and uplift in the northwest margin of the borderland. A widespread unconformity that separates highly deformed lower and lower middle iocene strata from relatively undeformed younger strata is assumed to mark the subsequent onset of wrench faulting. The timing of volcanism and uplift, and of the slightly younger wrenching event, closely matches the plate-tectonic model of Atwater and Molnar if the northwest margin of the borderland is restored to an earlier tectonic setting off Baja California, approximately 260 km southeast of its present position.

California↗
USGS1992

Impact origin of the Avak Structure, Arctic Alaska, and genesis of the Barrow gas fields

Geophysical and subsurface geologic data suggest that the Avak structure, which underlies the Arctic Coastal Plain 12 km southeast of Barrow, Alaska, is a hypervelocity meteorite or comet impact structure. The structure is a roughly circular area of uplifted, chaotically deformed Upper Triassic to Lower Cretaceous sedimentary rocks 8 km in diameter that is bounded by a ring of anastomosing, inwardly dipping, listric normal faults 12 km in diameter. A zone of gently outward-dipping sedimentary country rocks forms a discontinuous ring of "rim anticlines" within the peripheral ring of normal faults. Beyond these anticlines, the sedimentary rocks are almost flat-lying. Basement consists of strongly deformed Ordovician and Silurian argillite. Density and acoustic impedance con rasts between the argillite and the overlying strata produce gravity and seismic-reflection signatures that define a ring of anticlines around the disturbed zone and a structural high surrounded by an annular structural low at its center. In the adjacent Barrow gas fields, the tops of the informally named Neocomian "pebble shale" unit and the gas-producing Lower Jurassic Barrow sand (local usage) lie at average subsea depths of 488 m and 670 m, respectively. In the Avak 1 well, drilled on the central high, the pebble shale and the Barrow sand lie near the surface, documenting more than 500 m of relative uplift at the high. The cores in this well have steep dips (30-90 degrees), mixed breccia with Franklinian argillite clasts 10 and 90 m above basement, quartz grains with shock mosaicism and multiple sets of shock lamellae, oriented concussion fractures in sand-size quartz grains, and shatter cones resembling those found in the peripheral zones of well-documented impact structures. In addition, above-background levels o fractured quartz grains in Barrow sand were found as far as 19 km beyond the rim of the Avak structure. Data concerning the age of the Avak structure are not definitive. If submarine landslide deposits in the upper part of the Aptian and Albian Torok Formation, in the subsurface 200 km to the east, were triggered by the Avak event, then the Avak meteorite struck a submerged marine shelf about 100 + or - 5 Ma. However, the impact features found at Avak (shatter cones, concussion fractures, shock lamellae and shock mosaicism in quartz grains, and widespread cataclasis) characterize the distal zones of meteorite impact structures. Fused rocks, plastic deformation, and shock-metamorphic minerals found in more proximal zones of impact structures are apparently missing. These observations, and the lack of Avak ejecta in cuttings and cores from the Torok Formation and Nanushuk Group (Albian to middle Cenomanian) in surrounding test wells, indicate that the impact event postdated these beds. In this case, the Avak meteorite struck a Late Cretaceous or Tertiary marine shelf or coastal plain between the Cenomanian (ca. 95 Ma), and deposition of the basal beds of the overlying late Pliocene and Quaternary Gubik Formation (ca. 3 Ma).

Alaska↗
USGS1976

Regional geologic framework off northeastern United States

Six multichannel seismic-reflection profiles taken across the Atlantic continental margin off the northeastern United States show an excess of 14 km of presumed Mesozoic and younger sedimentary rocks in the Baltimore Canyon trough and 8 km in the Georges Bank basin. Beneath the continental rise, the sedimentary prism thickness exceeds 7 km south of New Jersey and Maryland, and it is 4.5 km thick south of Georges Bank. Stratigraphically, the continental slope–outer edge of the continental shelf is a transition zone of high-velocity sedimentary rock, probably carbonate, that covers deeply subsided basement. Acoustically, the sedimentary sequence beneath the shelf is divided into three units which are correlated speculatively with the Cenozoic, the Cretaceous, and the Jurassic-Triassic sections. These units thicken offshore, and some have increased seismic velocities farther offshore. The uppermost unit thickens from a fraction of a kilometer to slightly more than a kilometer in a seaward direction, and velocity values range from 1.7 to 2.2 km/sec. The middle unit thickens from a fraction of a kilometer to as much as 5 km (northern Baltimore Canyon trough), and seismic velocity ranges from 2.2 to 5.4 km/sec. The lowest unit thickens to a maximum of 9 km (northern Baltimore Canyon), and velocities span the 3.9 to 5.9-km/sec interval. The spatial separation of magnetic and gravity anomalies on line 2 (New Jersey) suggests that in the Baltimore Canyon region the magnetic-slope anomaly is due to edge effects and that the previously reported free-air and isostatic gravity anomalies over the outer shelf may be due in part to a lateral increase in sediment density (velocity) near the shelf edge. The East Coast magnetic anomaly and the free-air gravity high both coincide over the outer shelf edge on line 1 (Georges Bank) but are offset by 20 km from the ridge on the reflection profile. Because the magnetic-slope-anomaly wavelength is nearly 50 km across, a deep source is likely. In part, the positive free-air gravity anomaly likewise may represent the significant lateral density increase within the sedimentary section toward the outer edge of the shelf.

American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulle↗
USGS1978

VAMPs—Possible hydrocarbon-bearing structures in Bering Sea Basin: Geologic notes

Narrow (1 to 2 km) subsurface columns of concave reflection horizons are common time-base seismic profiles collected in the Bering Sea basin. The columns of recorded downflexures are thought to be velocity pulldowns and commonly are associated with one or more arched or gently domed high-amplitude reflection horizons about 100 m higher in the section. Inferred from this association is that subsurface deposits characterized by anomalously low acoustic velocity are present. We refer to the velocity-anomaly and reflection-amplitude association as a velocity-amplitude feature, or VAMP, and speculate that VAMPs are deep-seated “bright spots” underlain by a strong velocity pulldown possibly caused by gas-charged deposits.

AAPG Bulletin↗
USGS2010

An overview of marine biodiversity in United States waters

Marine biodiversity of the United States (U.S.) is extensively documented, but data assembled by the United States National Committee for the Census of Marine Life demonstrate that even the most complete taxonomic inventories are based on records scattered in space and time. The best-known taxa are those of commercial importance. Body size is directly correlated with knowledge of a species, and knowledge also diminishes with distance from shore and depth. Measures of biodiversity other than species diversity, such as ecosystem and genetic diversity, are poorly documented. Threats to marine biodiversity in the U.S. are the same as those for most of the world: overexploitation of living resources; reduced water quality; coastal development; shipping; invasive species; rising temperature and concentrations of carbon dioxide in the surface ocean, and other changes that may be consequences of global change, including shifting currents; increased number and size of hypoxic or anoxic areas; and increased number and duration of harmful algal blooms. More information must be obtained through field and laboratory research and monitoring that involve innovative sampling techniques (such as genetics and acoustics), but data that already exist must be made accessible. And all data must have a temporal component so trends can be identified. As data are compiled, techniques must be developed to make certain that scales are compatible, to combine and reconcile data collected for various purposes with disparate gear, and to automate taxonomic changes. Information on biotic and abiotic elements of the environment must be interactively linked. Impediments to assembling existing data and collecting new data on marine biodiversity include logistical problems as well as shortages in finances and taxonomic expertise.

Arctic Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, Pacific Ocean↗
USGS2015

The relationship between vessel traffic and noise levels received by killer whales ( Orcinus orca )

Whale watching has become increasingly popular as an ecotourism activity around the globe and is beneficial for environmental education and local economies. Southern Resident killer whales ( Orcinus orca ) comprise an endangered population that is frequently observed by a large whale watching fleet in the inland waters of Washington state and British Columbia. One of the factors identified as a risk to recovery for the population is the effect of vessels and associated noise. An examination of the effects of vessels and associated noise on whale behavior utilized novel equipment to address limitations of previous studies. Digital acoustic recording tags (DTAGs) measured the noise levels the tagged whales received while laser positioning systems allowed collection of geo-referenced data for tagged whales and all vessels within 1000 m of the tagged whale. The objective of the current study was to compare vessel data and DTAG recordings to relate vessel traffic to the ambient noise received by tagged whales. Two analyses were conducted, one including all recording intervals, and one that excluded intervals when only the research vessel was present. For all data, significant predictors of noise levels were length (inverse relationship), number of propellers, and vessel speed, but only 15% of the variation in noise was explained by this model. When research-vessel-only intervals were excluded, vessel speed was the only significant predictor of noise levels, and explained 42% of the variation. Simple linear regressions (ignoring covariates) found that average vessel speed and number of propellers were the only significant correlates with noise levels. We conclude that vessel speed is the most important predictor of noise levels received by whales in this study. Thus, measures that reduce vessel speed in the vicinity of killer whales would reduce noise exposure in this population.

Vancouver, Washington↗
USGS2023

Movement ecology of diploid and triploid grass carp in a large reservoir and upstream tributaries

Grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella , is an herbivorous fish originally brought to North America from Asia in 1963 to control nuisance aquatic vegetation. Since their arrival, detrimental alterations to aquatic ecosystems have sometimes occurred in waterways where they were initially stocked and into which they have escaped. The movements of grass carp from lentic systems into tributaries required for spawning is poorly understood, and understanding environmental conditions associated with upstream migrations may aid in management of the species. We stocked 43 fertile diploid and 43 sterile triploid grass carp implanted with acoustic transmitters into Truman Reservoir, Missouri, USA between January 2017 and October 2018 to characterize movements during spring and summer when spawning conditions occur. Twenty fish (11 diploid/9 triploid) exhibited upstream migration behavior in the Osage River, a major tributary, in 2018 and 2019. Migration primarily occurred in April and May, during high discharge events associated with increasing river stage when water temperatures were between 15 and 28°C. Observed migrations ranged from 3.0–108 river km in length, and six individuals were observed making multiple upstream migrations in one season. Eleven fish initiated upstream migrations while in the lentic main body of the reservoir. These findings provide some evidence for upstream migrations by diploid and triploid grass carp as well both lake and river residents. Evidence of similar upstream migration behavior by both diploid and triploid grass carp suggests that triploids may be suitable surrogates for diploids for study of movement ecology. Removal efforts in tributaries targeting periods of increasing river stage during spring may provide the best opportunity of encountering large concentrations of grass carp.

Missouri↗
USGS2008

Physical properties of repressurized samples recovered during the 2006 National Gas Hydrate Program expedition offshore India

As part of an international cooperative research program, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and researchers from the National Gas Hydrate Program (NGHP) of India are studying the physical properties of sediment recovered during the NGHP-01 cruise conducted offshore India during 2006. Here we report on index property, acoustic velocity, and triaxial shear test results for samples recovered from the Krishna-Godavari Basin. In addition, we discuss the effects of sample storage temperature, handling, and change in structure of fine-grained sediment. Although complex, sub-vertical planar gas-hydrate structures were observed in the silty clay to clayey silt samples prior to entering the Gas Hydrate And Sediment Test Laboratory Instrument (GHASTLI), the samples yielded little gas post test. This suggests most, if not all, gas hydrate dissociated during sample transfer. Mechanical properties of hydrate-bearing marine sediment are best measured by avoiding sample depressurization. By contrast, mechanical properties of hydrate-free sediments, that are shipped and stored at atmospheric pressure can be approximated by consolidating core material to the original in situ effective stress.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1999

Nondestructive laboratory measurement of geotechnical and geoacoustic properties through intact core-liner

High-resolution automated measurement of the geotechnical and geoacoustic properties of soil at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is performed with a state-of-the-art multi-sensor whole-core logging device. The device takes measurements, directly through intact sample-tube wall, of p-wave acoustic velocity, of soil wet bulk density, and magnetic susceptibility. This paper summarizes our methodology for determining soil-sound speed and wet-bulk density for material encased in an unsplit liner. Our methodology for nondestructive measurement allows for rapid, accurate, and high-resolution (1 cm-spaced) mapping of the mass physical properties of soil prior to sample extrusion.

ASTM Special Technical Publication↗
USGS2010

Anthropogenic influence on recent bathymetric change in west-central San Francisco Bay

Two multibeam sonar surveys of west-central San Francisco Bay, California, were conducted in 1997 and 2008. Bathymetric change analysis between the two surveys indicates a loss of 14.1 million cubic meters (-3.1 cm/yr) of sediment during this time period, representing an approximately three-fold acceleration of the rate that was observed from prior depth change analysis from 1947 to 1979 for all of Central Bay, using more spatially coarse National Ocean Service (NOS) soundings. The portions of the overlapping survey areas between 1997 and 2008 designated as aggregate mining lease sites lost sediment at five times the rate of the remainder of west-central San Francisco Bay. Despite covering only 28% of the analysis area, volume change within leasing areas accounted for 9.2 million cubic meters of sediment loss, while the rest of the area lost 4.9 million cubic meters of sediment. The uncertainty of this recent analysis is more tightly constrained due to more stringent controls on vertical and horizontal position via tightly coupled, inertially aided differential Global Positioning Systems (GPS) solutions for survey vessel trajectory that virtually eliminate inaccuracies from traditional tide modeling and vessel motion artifacts. Further, quantification of systematic depth measurement error can now be calculated through comparison of static surfaces (e.g., bedrock) between surveys using seafloor habitat maps based on acoustic backscatter measurements and ground-truthing with grab samples and underwater video. Sediment loss in the entire San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half-century, as estimated from a series of bathymetric change studies, is 240 million cubic meters, and most of this is believed to be coarse sediment (i.e., sand and gravel) from Central Bay and the San Francisco Bar, which is likely to limit the sand supply to adjacent, open-coast beaches. This hypothesis is supported by a calibrated numerical model in a related study that indicates that there is a potential net export of sand-sized sediment across the Golden Gate, suggesting that a reduction in the supply of sand-sized sediment within west-central San Francisco Bay will limit transport to the outer coast.

California↗
USGS2016

Recent advances in understanding flow dynamics and transport of water-quality constituents in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta

This paper, part of the collection of research comprising the State of Bay–Delta Science 2016, describes advances during the past decade in understanding flow dynamics and how water-quality constituents move within California’s Sacramento– San Joaquin River Delta (Delta). Water-quality constituents include salinity, heat, oxygen, nutrients, contaminants, organic particles, and inorganic particles. These constituents are affected by water diversions and other human manipulations of flow, and they greatly affect the quantity and quality of benthic, pelagic, and intertidal habitat in the Delta. The Pacific Ocean, the Central Valley watershed, human intervention, the atmosphere, and internal biogeochemical processes are all drivers of flow and transport in the Delta. These drivers provide a conceptual framework for presenting recent findings. The tremendous expansion of acoustic and optical instruments deployed in the Delta over the past decade has greatly improved our understanding of how tidal variability affects flow and transport. Sediment is increasingly viewed as a diminishing resource needed to sustain pelagic habitat and tidal marsh, especially as sea level rises. Connections among the watershed, Delta, and San Francisco Bay that have been quantified recently highlight that a landscape view of this system is needed, rather than consideration of each region in isolation. We discuss interactions of multiple drivers and information gaps.

California↗
USGS2016

Perspectives on bay-delta science and policy

The State of Bay–Delta Science 2008 highlighted seven emerging perspectives on science and management of the Delta. These perspectives had important effects on policy and legislation concerning management of the Delta ecosystem and water exports. From the collection of papers that make up the State of Bay–Delta Science 2016, we derive another seven perspectives that augment those published in 2008. The new perspectives address nutrient and contaminant concentrations in Delta waters, the failure of the Delta food web to support native species, the role of multiple stressors in driving species toward extinction, and the emerging importance of extreme events in driving change in the ecosystem and the water supply. The scientific advances that underpin these new perspectives were made possible by new measurement and analytic tools. We briefly discuss some of these, including miniaturized acoustic fish tags, sensors for monitoring of water quality, analytic techniques for disaggregating complex contaminant mixtures, remote sensing to assess levee vulnerability, and multidimensional hydrodynamic modeling. Despite these new tools and scientific insights, species conservation objectives for the Delta are not being met. We believe that this lack of progress stems in part from the fact that science and policy do not incorporate sufficiently long-term perspectives. Looking forward half a century was central to the Delta Visioning process, but science and policy have not embraced this conceptual breadth. We are also concerned that protection and enhancement of the unique cultural, recreational, natural resource, and agricultural values of the Delta as an evolving place, as required by the Delta Reform Act, has received no critical study and analysis. Adopting wider and longer science and policy perspectives immediately encourages recognition of the need for evaluation, analysis, and public discourse on novel conservation approaches. These longer and wider perspectives also encourage more attention to the opportunities provided by heavily invaded ecosystems. It is past time to turn scientific and policy attention to these issues.

California↗
USGS2024

Individual-based ecological particle tracking model (ECO-PTM) for simulating juvenile chinook salmon migration and survival through the Sacramento – San Joaquin Delta

Recovery of endangered salmon species in the Central Valley of California amidst prolonged drought and climate change necessitates innovative water management actions that balance species recovery and California's water demands. We describe an individual-based ecological particle tracking model (ECO-PTM) that can be used to assess the efficacy of proposed actions. Based on a random walk theory, the model tracks individual particles’ travel time, routing and survival in a flow field simulated by the Delta Simulation Model 2 hydrodynamic module (DSM2 HYDRO). The random walk particles are parameterized to have fish-like swimming behaviors, including upstream/downstream swimming, probabilistic holding behaviors, and stochastic swimming velocities. Particle routing at key junctions is based on well-established statistical models, and route-specific survival is calculated using the XT mean free-path length model. Behavioral parameters were estimated by fitting several competing models to a multiyear dataset of travel times from acoustic tagged juvenile salmon. The model’s baseline simulations under historical flow conditions from 1991 to 2016 successfully replicated essential relationships between salmon outmigration survival and hydrodynamic conditions, consistent with previous studies and the STARS (Survival Travel Time and Routing Simulation) statistical simulation model. Simulation results for management scenarios revealed multifaceted influences on fish survival, including Delta flow, flow at key junctions, route alterations, seasons, and water year characteristics. Importantly, these results highlight ECO-PTM’s potential to predict fish survival outcomes of proposed actions, serving as a foundation for informed future research, decision-making, and effective management strategies to enhance the survival prospects of out-migrating salmonids within the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta ecosystem.

California↗