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At least 1,171 records · Page 65Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Updated logistic regression equations for the calculation of post-fire debris-flow likelihood in the western United States

Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can generate dangerous flash floods and debris flows. To reduce public exposure to hazard, the U.S. Geological Survey produces post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments for select fires in the western United States. We use publicly available geospatial data describing basin morphology, burn severity, soil properties, and rainfall characteristics to estimate the statistical likelihood that debris flows will occur in response to a storm of a given rainfall intensity. Using an empirical database and refined geospatial analysis methods, we defined new equations for the prediction of debris-flow likelihood using logistic regression methods. We showed that the new logistic regression model outperformed previous models used to predict debris-flow likelihood.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2017

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) nesting and brood-rearing microhabitat in Nevada and California—Spatial variation in selection and survival patterns

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereinafter, "sage-grouse") are highly dependent on sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) dominated vegetation communities for food and cover from predators. Although this species requires the presence of sagebrush shrubs in the overstory, it also inhabits a broad geographic distribution with significant gradients in precipitation and temperature that drive variation in sagebrush ecosystem structure and concomitant shrub understory conditions. Variability in understory conditions across the species’ range may be responsible for the sometimes contradictory findings in the scientific literature describing sage-grouse habitat use and selection during important life history stages, such as nesting. To help understand the importance of this variability and to help guide management actions, we evaluated the nesting and brood-rearing microhabitat factors that influence selection and survival patterns in the Great Basin using a large dataset of microhabitat characteristics from study areas spanning northern Nevada and a portion of northeastern California from 2009 to 2016. The spatial and temporal coverage of the dataset provided a powerful opportunity to evaluate microhabitat factors important to sage-grouse reproduction, while also considering habitat variation associated with different climatic conditions and areas affected by wildfire. The summary statistics for numerous microhabitat factors, and the strength of their association with sage-grouse habitat selection and survival, are provided in this report to support decisions by land managers, policy-makers, and others with the best-available science in a timely manner.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2017

Hierarchical population monitoring of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in Nevada and California—Identifying populations for management at the appropriate spatial scale

Population ecologists have long recognized the importance of ecological scale in understanding processes that guide observed demographic patterns for wildlife species. However, directly incorporating spatial and temporal scale into monitoring strategies that detect whether trajectories are driven by local or regional factors is challenging and rarely implemented. Identifying the appropriate scale is critical to the development of management actions that can attenuate or reverse population declines. We describe a novel example of a monitoring framework for estimating annual rates of population change for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) within a hierarchical and spatially nested structure. Specifically, we conducted Bayesian analyses on a 17-year dataset (2000–2016) of lek counts in Nevada and northeastern California to estimate annual rates of population change, and compared trends across nested spatial scales. We identified leks and larger scale populations in immediate need of management, based on the occurrence of two criteria: (1) crossing of a destabilizing threshold designed to identify significant rates of population decline at a particular nested scale; and (2) crossing of decoupling thresholds designed to identify rates of population decline at smaller scales that decouple from rates of population change at a larger spatial scale. This approach establishes how declines affected by local disturbances can be separated from those operating at larger scales (for example, broad-scale wildfire and region-wide drought). Given the threshold output from our analysis, this adaptive management framework can be implemented readily and annually to facilitate responsive and effective actions for sage-grouse populations in the Great Basin. The rules of the framework can also be modified to identify populations responding positively to management action or demonstrating strong resilience to disturbance. Similar hierarchical approaches might be beneficial for other species occupying landscapes with heterogeneous disturbance and climatic regimes.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2018

Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative unit watershed erosion potential prioritization for check-dam installation

Changes in land-use practices and the extirpation (local extinction) of beaver populations in the early 20th century during European settlement are believed to have resulted in many changes in how streams in the Western United States function. Some of the negative changes that have resulted include stream channelization, soil erosion, changing vegetation, water turbidity, and a loss of overland flow. Efforts to restore streams and reduce soil erosion by water have included reintroductions of beaver, incorporating Native American traditional knowledge of dry-land farming techniques, and the installation of rigid check-dams. Many of these efforts have been successful in improving both intermittent and perennial stream function. Therefore, stakeholders in the Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative (SRLCC) have identified a need to prioritize streams within their region of interest for the installation of check-dams to continue restoration and conservation efforts and to improve sediment catchment. Using Natural Resource Conservation Service soil databases, topographic features derived from digital elevation models, stream networks, and regional climatic patterns, I developed a ranking system for watershed potential erosion rates and suitability for check-dam placement across the SRLCC. This ranking system serves as a first step for land managers to prioritize areas for check-dam installation based on relatively static factors (soil properties, topography, and hydrology) that can contribute to rates of soil erosion by water and the stability of check-dams. Many other relatively dynamic factors over time can contribute to rates of soil erosion by water, such as recent wildfire events, changes in weather patterns and extreme climate events, and changing land-use such as grazing, logging, mining, development, and cultivation. These factors that influence vegetative and biological soil crusts cover are also important elements to the potential erosion of soil by water. Because of this, SRLCC stakeholders might consider further evaluation of the watersheds identified here as high ranking. Final watershed prioritization among the high-ranking watersheds identified here should include current knowledge of land-use and land-cover estimates to identify areas at risk for soil erosion or degree of existing erosion problems.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2018

An integrated population model for greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the bi-state distinct population segment, California and Nevada, 2003–17

The Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (DPS) of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus , hereinafter “sage-grouse”) occupies parts of Alpine, Mono, and Inyo Counties in California, and parts of Douglas, Esmeralda, Lyon, Carson City, and Mineral Counties in Nevada and was proposed for listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) in October 2013. In April 2015, the USFWS determined that the Bi-State DPS did not warrant listing under the ESA, but monitoring continued for assessment of long-term population stability (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2015a). Threats to this population include geographic isolation, expansion of single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and Utah juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma ), anthropogenic activities, changes in historical wildfire cycles and the conversion of native shrubs to invasive annual grasslands, and recent changes in predator communities. As part of a broad long-term monitoring program, we used an integrated population model to estimate finite rate of population change (λ) of each subpopulation within the Bi-State DPS from 2003 to 2017. Since 2012, the Bi-State DPS experienced multiple years of drought conditions associated with periods of population decline across multiple populations. The 14-year average (λ) for the Bi-State DPS is 0.98 (95 percent CRI=0.70–1.31). Three subpopulations (Mount Grant, Fales, Bodie Hills) showed continued evidence of stability and growth as the average λ exceeded 1.0. Moreover, we implemented the first year of an experimental pre-nesting female and brood translocation program to bolster a critically low population of sage-grouse in Parker Meadows, California. Finally, we report summary statistics describing sage-grouse movements and relative abundance of avian predators across all years of the study.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2019

Southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) population biology at Big Sur and Monterey, California --Investigating the consequences of resource abundance and anthropogenic stressors for sea otter recovery

The range of the southern sea otter ( Enhydra lutris nereis ) spans most of the central California coast from Half Moon Bay to Gaviota. Some coastal areas within this range are heavily developed and highly impacted by humans, while other areas are wild and largely pristine. Determining the relative importance of food resource abundance, environmental conditions, and anthropogenic increases in pathogens and pollutants to population change in sea otters is critical to understanding limitations to population growth. To investigate the causal links between the sluggish population growth of sea otters in central California and factors that could be driving variation in survival and reproduction, we designed a study to compare two distinct subpopulations—one in an area of low human impact (Big Sur) and one in an area of high human impact (Monterey). Between 2008 and 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey and collaborators conducted a telemetry-based study of sea otters at these two locations. The results of this study were not consistent with the hypothesis that sea otters adjacent to human population centers (Monterey) experience higher exposure to pollutants and pathogens than those in lower impacted areas (Big Sur). In fact, based on serological analysis, female sea otters from Big Sur showed higher exposure rates to Toxoplasma gondii than did female otters from Monterey, while domoic acid exposure appeared to be similar at both sites. Gene expression (specifically transcription) analysis did not indicate any consistent differences between the two populations that would have suggested a response to pathogen or toxin exposure, although there were temporal changes in gene transcription for sea otters at Big Sur following potential exposure to run-off from wildfires that occurred during the study. Together, these metrics suggest that variation in exposure to environmental stressors occurred, but patterns were not clearly attributable to differences in human population densities or land-use patterns. When compared to Monterey, sea otters in Big Sur spent more time feeding, had a higher degree of dietary specialization, were in poorer body condition, and had lower survival rates (both pups and adults). Together, these metrics suggest that otters at Big Sur had greater nutritional stress, consistent with lower per-capita resource abundance. Overall, study results indicate that density-dependent population regulation, mediated by per-capita resource abundance, is the most significant factor currently limiting population growth in the center part of the range. Additionally, spatial and temporal variation in environmental and anthropogenic stressors also can affect sea otter health, although patterns of variation are complex and are not simply a function of proximity to human populations. We also found that exposure to environmental stressors (either natural or anthropogenic in origin) often is associated with resource limitation. Finally, our results indicate that sea otter populations are structured at relatively small spatial scales, and the processes that regulate population abundance (including density-dependent resource abundance) also occur at these smaller, more local scales.

California↗
USGS2019

Climate adaptation Science Centers—Annual report for 2018

2018 marked the 10-year anniversary of the establishment of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center! With the passage of the fiscal year 2018 budget on March 23, 2018, our program name was changed from the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center to the National Climate Adaptation Science Center (NCASC). The eight regional Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers were renamed Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs). The name changes more clearly align the national and regional centers and emphasize their focus on meeting natural resource adaptation needs. Although the program has a new name, our mission has not changed. We are still hard at work delivering science to help fish, wildlife, water, land, and people adapt to a changing climate. During the past 10 years, the NCASC and the eight regional CASCs funded over 425 science projects and built a network of research partners, resource management stakeholders, interdisciplinary staff, fellows, and early career researchers. In celebration of our work and accomplishments over the last 10 years, the NCASC began a monthly web post series on “10 Things You May Not Know” about topics our science has focused on, including drought, glaciers, and wildfire. Additionally, CASCs that had completed their initial hosting agreement with the USGS underwent a formal review and recompetition process. New hosting agreements were awarded to the Southwest and North Central CASCs in 2018. Read the 2018 annual report to learn more about the CASCs' great science, partnerships, capacity building, and more from 2018.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2020

Population and habitat analyses for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the bi-state distinct population segment—2018 update

Executive Summary The Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (Bi-State DPS) of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus , hereinafter “sage-grouse”) represents a genetically distinct and geographically isolated population that straddles the border between Nevada and California. The primary threat to these sage-grouse populations is the expansion of single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and Utah juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma ) into sagebrush ecosystems, which fragments and reduces population connectivity and survival. Other important threats include low water availability during brood-rearing, particularly during drought, and increased predation by common ravens ( Corvus corax ), a generalist predator often associated with anthropogenic resource subsidies. Although the Bi-State DPS occurs at high elevations relative to sage-grouse range-wide, changes in historical wildfire cycles and the conversion of native shrubs to invasive annual grasslands still threaten these populations. The Bi-State DPS has undergone multiple federal status assessments and associated litigation. For example, in October of 2013, the Bi-State DPS was proposed for listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), then withdrawn in April 2015. The withdrawal decision was challenged, and in May 2018, a Federal district court ordered the withdrawal decision to be vacated, and USFWS was required to re-open the October 2013 listing evaluation. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), with State and Federal collaborators, embarked on a multipronged analysis to provide current and best available science regarding population status of sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS. Using data from a long-term monitoring program, we carried out four analytical study objectives, and here, we provide preliminary results of these analyses. First, we used integrated population modeling (IPM) to predict annual population abundance and annual finite rate of population change for the Bi-State DPS, as a whole, and for each subpopulation between 1995 and 2018. Because sage-grouse exhibit population cycles (periodic increases and decreases in abundance across approximately 6- to 10-year wavelengths), we estimated trends across three nested temporal scales that represent one (11 years), two (18 years), and three (24 years) complete population cycles. These estimates of relatively long-term averaged population change account for temporal (that is, interannual) variation. Our model predicted population abundance for the Bi-State DPS during 2018 at 3,305 individuals (2,247–4,683), with the majority occupying Bodie Hills and Long Valley. The model also predicted cyclic dynamics in abundance through time with evidence of 24-year population growth and slight trends of decline over the past 18 years. Specifically, across the Bi-State DPS as a whole, we estimated annual average at 0.99, 0.99, and 1.02 over the one, two, and three population cycles, which equated to a 10.5 percent, 16.6 percent decrease, and 60.0 percent increase in abundance over the 11-, 18-, and 24-year cycles. Estimated abundance in 2018 had not reached numbers lower than those predicted during 1995. However, we found spatial variation in population trends across the three cycles. Bodie Hills subpopulation comprised the greatest (1,521) and exhibited average annual greater than 1.0 across all periods resulting in average annual increases of 7 percent. This relatively large subpopulation has grown 5 times larger than what was predicted in 1995 while experiencing cyclical dynamics within that period. Conversely, other smaller subpopulations within the Bi-State DPS exhibited average annual equal to or less than 1.0 resulting in estimated 10-year risks of extirpation ranging from 2.0 to 76.1 percent. In general, evidence of decline among smaller subpopulations was greatest for the most recent period (2008–18) compared to a period that encompassed three full population cycles (24-year). This difference coincides with an intense period of drought that began in 2012. For comparative purposes as part of this first objective, we conducted a similar analysis for populations of sage-grouse within Nevada and California but outside the Bi-State DPS. We developed a region-wide and distance-weighted IPM using lek count from Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) databases and with telemetry data collected by USGS across 12 sage-grouse subpopulations. Our models predicted similar patterns in population cycling outside the Bi-State DPS but with much stronger evidence of long-term declines across 24 years. Specifically, median averaged across each year of the 11-, 18-, and 24-year periods resulted in average annual values of 0.94, 0.97, and 0.99, respectively. These values equate to 41.0 percent, 38.5 percent, and 21.3 percent declines over the corresponding periods. Second, we used lek count data in a state-space modeling framework to compare trends in population abundance across different spatial scales (that is, leks versus Bi-State DPS). This hierarchical framework allowed us to disentangle declines associated with climate conditions as opposed to other local level factors that might signal the need for management intervention. Specifically, we identified 7 leks that were both declining and recently decoupled from larger spatial scale trends, typically governed by climatic conditions (referred to as soft or hard signals). The goal of this analysis was to provide an early warning system that might have implications for conservation actions at local scales. Third, we developed phenological (spring, summer–fall, and winter) and reproductive life stage (nesting, early brood-rearing, and late-brood rearing) based resource selection functions using various environmental covariates. We report rankings of variable importance for each season and life stage, developed maps of habitat selection indices (HSI), binned categories representing low, moderate, and high classes of quality (where any category greater than or equal to low indicated selected habitat) for each phenological season and life stage, and produced composite maps by selected phenological and reproductive stage to estimate annual habitat. Fourth, we used for each lek within the Bi-State DPS to carry out a spatial analysis that quantified substantial changes in the distribution of occupied habitat across long- (24-year) and short- (11-year) term periods. Owing to differences among available datasets, the long-term analysis primarily reflected spatial shifts among subpopulations comprising the majority of the Bi-State DPS (that is, Bodie Hills and Long Valley) while the short-term analysis also quantified changes among subpopulations along the periphery. Over long and short-term periods, the overall distribution of occupied habitat (as measured by 99 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) was reduced by 20,573 ha and 55,492 ha, respectively. Occupied core areas (as measured by 50 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) over long-term periods were solely located in Bodie Hills and Long Valley. Although nearly all subpopulations experienced contractions in occupied overall and core distribution, Bodie Hills experienced spatial expansion that occurred with concomitant spatial contraction at Long Valley over both periods. Subpopulations at the northern (Pine Nuts), central (Sagehen) and southern (White-Mountains) extents of the Bi-State DPS also experienced spatial contraction over the short-term period. These findings, coupled with those of population trends, indicate long-term patterns in redistribution of sage-grouse from Long Valley and peripheral subpopulations to Bodie Hills. That is, sage-grouse subpopulations at the periphery are declining while the largest population at the core is increasing, which could have meaningful impacts on overall metapopulation persistence. We provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat (reduced distribution) given local extirpation of subpopulations. Fifth, we calculated percentages of selected phenological, life stage, and annual habitat that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. We then intersected these maps with a composite estimate of occupied habitat from the fourth objective and calculated percentages of selected habitat likely occupied by sage-grouse that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. These values provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat and subsequent reductions in spatial distribution given reductions in abundance and, in some cases, extirpation of leks within subpopulations. Lastly, we carried out an initial in-depth analysis of selection for irrigated pastures and wet meadows during the brood-rearing stage for the Long Valley subpopulation. We chose this subpopulation because it represents a population core, representing 26.5 percent of total sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS, and has exhibited long-term declines in abundance and distribution. This subpopulation is highly sensitive to precipitation and other factors that influence water availability. Models predicted higher use of the interior portions of irrigated pastures and wet meadows during late brood-rearing period, which represented a potentially risky use of habitat that was exacerbated during periods of low moisture (for example, drought, reduced water delivery, or both). Sage-grouse typically used edges of riparian areas and pastures, largely because the interior of these mesic areas consisted of considerably less overhead concealment cover (for example, shrubs) that likely resulted in a higher risk of mortality. We found that a lack of water delivery to pastures in the form of overwinter precipitation or diversion ditches increased the movements of sage-grouse to the interior of pastures. Although further investigation of water delivery impacts on chick survival are warrented, our initial findings regarding resource selection may explain recent declines in population growth at Long Valley.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2021

Connectivity of Mojave Desert tortoise populations—Management implications for maintaining a viable recovery network

Executive Summary The historic distribution of Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) was relatively continuous across the range, and the importance of tortoise habitat outside of designated tortoise conservation areas (TCAs) to recovery has long been recognized for its contributions to supporting gene flow between TCAs and to minimizing impacts and edge effects within TCAs. However, connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations has become a concern because of recent and proposed development of large tracts of desert tortoise habitat that cross, fragment, and surround designated conservation areas. This paper summarizes the underlying concepts and importance of connectivity for Mojave desert tortoise populations by reviewing current information on connectivity and providing information to managers for maintaining or enhancing desert tortoise population connectivity as they consider future proposals for development and management actions. Maintaining an ecological network for the Mojave desert tortoise, with a system of core habitats (TCAs) connected by linkages, is necessary to support demographically viable populations and long-term gene flow within and between TCAs. There are four points for wildlife and land-management agencies to consider when making decisions that could affect connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations (for example, in updating actions in resource management plans or amendments that could help maintain or restore functional connectivity in light of the latest information): Management of all desert tortoise habitat for persistence and connectivity . Desert tortoise populations continue to decline within most TCAs, and it is unlikely that trends are better in populations outside protected areas. Fragmentation exacerbates negative population trends by breaking large continuous populations into smaller isolated populations. Connectivity within large populations can enhance resilience to localized disturbances due to rescue by neighboring individuals. In contrast, smaller fragmented populations are resistant to rescue by their isolation and thus could suffer irreversible declines to extirpation from a variety of threats and stochastic events. Enhanced threat reduction to reverse declines within TCAs and to maintain occupied habitat in the surrounding matrix would help reduce the variability in population growth rates and improve the resilience of protected populations even while implementing efforts to improve connectivity. Each TCA has unique strengths and weaknesses regarding its ability to support minimum sustainable populations based on areal extent and its ability to support population increases based on landscape connection with adjacent populations. Considering how proposed projects (inside or outside of TCAs) affect connectivity and the ability of TCAs to support at least 5,000 adult tortoises (the numerical goal for each TCA) could help managers to maintain the resilience of TCAs to population declines. The same project, in an alternative location, could have very different impacts on local and regional populations. For example, within the habitat matrix surrounding TCAs, narrowly delineated corridors may not allow for natural population dynamics if they do not accommodate overlapping home ranges along most of their widths so that tortoises reside, grow, find mates, and produce offspring that can replace older tortoises. In addition, most habitat outside TCAs may receive more surface disturbance than habitat within TCAs. Therefore, managing the entire remaining matrix of desert tortoise habitat for permeability may be better than delineating fixed corridors. These concepts apply, especially given uncertainty about long-term condition of habitat, within and outside of TCAs under a changing climate. Ultimately, questions such as “ What are the critical linkages that need to be protected ?” could be better framed as “ How can we manage the remaining habitat matrix in ways that sustain ecological processes and habitat suitability for special status species ?” Land-management decisions made in the context of the latter question may be more conducive to maintenance of a functional ecological network. Limitations on landscape-level disturbance across habitat managed for the desert tortoise Clearly delineating habitat linkages and differentiating them from non-delineated areas by the uses that are permitted or prohibited within them by specific management guidelines can help achieve functional connectivity. Such guidelines would be most effective if they considered and accounted for all surface disturbances (for example, temporary disturbances such as fiberoptic lines or off-highway vehicle routes, right-of-ways, utility-scale solar development, urbanization) to the extent possible. A weighted framework that varies with the permanence or severity of the disturbance, and can be additive to quantify cumulative effects, could be useful (Xiong, 2020). For example, minor roads can alter tortoise movements independently of other features (Peaden and others, 2017; Hromada and others, 2020), but if the isolated dirt road is accompanied by a powerline that encourages raven predation (Xiong, 2020), then the two features together may be additive. Ignoring minor or temporary disturbance on the landscape could result in a cumulatively large impact that is not explicitly acknowledged (Goble, 2009); therefore, understanding and quantifying all surface disturbance on a given landscape is prudent. In California, the Bureau of Land Management established 0.1–1.0 percent caps on new surface-disturbance for TCAs and mapped linkages that address the issues described in number 1 of this list. Nevada, Utah, and Arizona currently do not have surface-disturbance limits. Limits comparable to those in the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) would be 0.5 percent within TCAs and 1 percent within the linkages modeled by Averill-Murray and others (2013). Limits in some areas of California within the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan, such as Ivanpah Valley, are more restrictive, at 0.1 percent. Continuity across the state line in Nevada could be achieved with comparable limits in the adjacent portion of Ivanpah Valley, as well as the Greater Trout Canyon Translocation Area and the Stump Springs Regional Augmentation Site. These more restrictive limits would help protect remaining habitat in the major interstate connectivity pathway through Ivanpah Valley and focal areas of population augmentation that provide additional population connectivity along the western flank of the Spring Mountains. In a recent study that analyzed 13 years of desert tortoise monitoring data, nearly all desert tortoise observations were at sites in which 5 percent or less of the surrounding landscape within 1 kilometer was disturbed (Carter and others, 2020a). To help maintain tortoise habitability and permeability across all other non-conservation-designated tortoise habitat, all surface disturbance could be limited to less than 5-percent development per square kilometer because the 5-percent threshold for development is the point at which tortoise occupation drops precipitously (Carter and others, 2020a). However, although individual desert tortoises were observed at development levels up to 5 percent, we do not know the fitness or reproductive characteristics of these individuals. This level of development also may not allow for long-term persistence of healthy populations that are of adequate size needed for demographic or functional connectivity; therefore, a conservative interpretation suggests that, ideally, development could be lower. Lower development levels would be particularly useful in areas within the upper 5th percentile of connectivity values modeled by Gray and others (2019). Reducing ancillary threats in places where connectivity is restricted to narrow strips of habitat, for example, narrow mountain passes or vegetated strips between solar development, could enhance the functionality of these vulnerable linkages. In such areas, maintaining multiple, redundant linkages could further enhance overall connectivity. Minimization of mortality from roads and maximization of passage under roads . Roads pose a significant threat to the long-term persistence of local tortoise populations, and roads of high traffic volume lead to severe population declines, which ultimately fragments populations farther away from the roads. Three points (a.–c.) pertain to reducing direct mortality of tortoises on the many paved roads that cross desert tortoise habitat and to maintaining a minimal level of permeability across these roads: Tortoise-exclusion fencing tied into culverts, underpasses, overpasses, or other passages below roads in desert tortoise habitat, would limit vehicular mortality of tortoises and provide opportunities for movement across the roads. Installation of shade structures on the habitat side of fences installed in areas with narrow population-depletion zones would limit overheating of tortoises that may pace the fence. Passages below highways could be maintained or retrofitted to ensure safe tortoise access, for example, by filling eroded drop-offs or modifying erosion-control features such as rip-rap to make them safer and more passable for tortoises. Wildlife management agencies could work with transportation departments to develop construction standards that are consistent with hydrologic/erosion management goals, while also incorporating a design and materials consistent with tortoise survival and passage and make the standards widely available. The process would be most effective if the status of passages was regularly monitored and built into management plans. Healthy tortoise populations along fenced highways could be supported by ensuring that land inside tortoise-exclusion fences is not so degraded that it leads to degradation of tortoise habitat outside the exclusion areas. For example, severe invasive plant infestations inside a highway exclusion could cause an increase of invasive plants outside the exclusion area and degrade habitat; therefore, invasive plants inside road rights of way could be mown or treated with herbicide to limit their spread into adjacent tortoise habitat and minimize the risk of these plants carrying wildfires into adjacent habitat. Adaptation of management based on new information . Future research will continue to build upon and refine models related to desert tortoise population connectivity and develop new ones. New models could consider landscape levels of development and be constructed such that they share common foundations to support future synthesis efforts. If model development was undertaken in partnership with entities that are responsible for management of desert tortoise habitat, it would facilitate incorporation of current and future modeling results into their land management decisions. There are specific topics that may be clarified with further evaluation: The effects of climate change on desert tortoise habitat, distribution, and population connectivity; The effects of large-scale fires, especially within repeatedly burned habitat, on desert tortoise distribution and population connectivity; The ability of solar energy facilities or similar developments to support tortoise movement and presence by leaving washes intact; leaving native vegetation intact whenever possible, or if not possible, mowing the site, allowing vegetation to re-sprout, and managing weeds; and allowing tortoises to occupy the sites; and The design and frequency of underpasses necessary to maintain functional demographic and genetic connectivity across linear features, like highways.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗
USGS2021

Golden eagle population surveys in the vicinity of the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area, California, 2014–21

Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) are among the highest profile species killed by collisions with wind turbines at the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (APWRA) in the northern Diablo Range of west-central California. Understanding the distribution, site occupancy, and nesting status of eagles near the APWRA is needed to identify and minimize possible population-level impacts. We established a broad-scale survey design across a 5,185-km square-kilometer region of the Diablo Range, including the APWRA, to monitor site occupancy, abundance, and reproduction of Golden Eagles. During the study period we identified as many as 230 territorial pairs of Golden Eagles in the study area, up to 21 of which overlapped with the APWRA in any given year. On average, we detected a similar density of pairs at sites surveyed in the APWRA (1 pair per 17.8 km 2 surveyed) relative to sites surveyed in the surrounding region (1 pair per 20.3 km 2 surveyed). In 2020 and 2021, estimates of the proportion of pairs that successfully fledged at least one young (nesting success) were 0.27 and 0.26, respectively, which were above the seven-year average (0.22). On average, eagle pairs monitored in the APWRA had similar reproductive output (0.37 young fledged per pair) relative to pairs monitored outside of the APWRA (0.30 young fledged per pair). We observed a substantially higher proportion of territorial subadult pair members at the APWRA (mean = 29 percent of 16 pairs aged) relative to pairs monitored and aged in the surrounding region (mean = 3 percent of 122 pairs), indicating potentially higher rates of adult mortality or displacement at territories overlapping with the APWRA. Emergent threats to eagles in the study region, including a severe wildfire that impacted over 60 historical breeding territories in 2020, may interact with existing threats to affect population status and thus warrants further investigation. Our study provides wind energy developers, land managers, and regulatory agencies with key information on the spatial distribution, habitat quality, and population status of Golden Eagles needed to promote compatible wind energy production and long-term conservation of this federally protected wildlife species.

California↗
USGS2022

Distribution and demography of Coastal Cactus Wrens in Southern California, 2015–19

Surveys and monitoring for the coastal Cactus Wren ( Campylorhynchus brunneicapillus ) were completed in San Diego County between March 2015 and July 2019. A total of 383 plots were surveyed across 3 genetic clusters (Otay, Lake Jennings, and Sweetwater/Encanto). From 2015 to 2019, 317 plots were surveyed 8 times (twice per year in 2015, 2017–19). Additional plots were added in later years as wrens were discovered in new locations. We found differences in the proportion of plots occupied in the genetic clusters, with a lower proportion of plots occupied in the Otay cluster than in the Lake Jennings and Sweetwater/Encanto clusters in all years. Plot occupancy increased each year in the Otay and Sweetwater/Encanto clusters but not in the Lake Jennings cluster. The number of Cactus Wren territories increased from 2015 through 2018, and then decreased in 2019 in all three genetic clusters. We monitored nesting activities for two populations of Cactus Wrens in southern San Diego County. The Otay population consisted of two sites within the Otay genetic cluster, and the San Diego population consisted of two sites within the Sweetwater/Encanto and Lake Jennings genetic clusters. Nest monitoring occurred at 10–13 territories per year in the Otay population and 14–18 territories in the San Diego population from 2015 through 2019. All territories were occupied by pairs except two territories in 2015, five in 2016, and two in 2019. Between 46 and 74 Cactus Wren nests were monitored each year, which totaled 295 monitored nests from 2015 to 2019. To evaluate the direct influence of precipitation on breeding success, bio-year precipitation (“precipitation”) was calculated from July 1 of the prior year through June 30 of the breeding season year. Overall apparent nest success was positively influenced by precipitation with the lowest apparent nest success of 50 percent in 2015 and the highest apparent nest success of 72 percent in 2017, corresponding to the second lowest and the highest precipitation years, respectively. Apparent nest success also was higher in the Otay population than in the San Diego population. The number of brood nests initiated per pair and the number of renesting attempts per pair also were higher in years with more precipitation. Other metrics of Cactus Wren nesting success and productivity were positively influenced by the amount of precipitation, including clutch size and egg hatching success. The percent of hatchlings that fledged was greater in the Otay population than in the San Diego population but was not influenced by precipitation. The number of fledglings per pair was higher in years with more precipitation and was greater in the Otay population than in the San Diego population. Predation was the predominant cause of nest failure in both populations. Analysis of Cactus Wren daily nest survival rate indicated that there was a population, and possibly a precipitation effect on nest survival, with the daily survival rate for the Otay population significantly higher than for the San Diego population and weak increase in the daily survival rate with more precipitation. A total of 629 Cactus Wrens were banded during the course of the study, 360 in the San Diego population and 269 in the Otay population. Between 2015 and 2019, we resighted 301 color-banded adult birds that ranged between 1 and 8 years old. One additional color-banded bird was resighted in San Pasqual Valley (as part of a separate study); this bird originated in the San Diego population and was excluded from our analyses. Annual survival was higher for adult Cactus Wrens (ranging from 60 to 70 percent) than for first-year wrens (ranging from 20 to 28 percent) and varied by year. Annual survival was also weakly but positively correlated with precipitation. Annual survival was higher for first year and adult Cactus Wrens following years with increased precipitation. We found no evidence that survival differed by population. Banding also allowed us to examine whether there were differences in movement of adult and first-year Cactus Wrens by year or by population. We found that average dispersal distance for first-year Cactus Wrens was 1.9 kilometers in the Otay population and 1.6 kilometers in the San Diego population and did not differ by population or year. Dispersal between populations was not common. We detected five instances of movement of first-year wrens between the San Diego and Otay populations. All movements into and out of the San Diego population were from or into territories in the Sweetwater area. We detected no movement between the Lake Jennings site and either of the Sweetwater or Otay sites; however, we did detect one wren that dispersed from Lake Jennings to the San Pasqual Valley population in 2019, which was a distance of 26.4 kilometers. Adult Cactus Wrens were site-faithful, with 87 percent of adults remaining on the same territory between breeding seasons. Precipitation may be a weak driver of movement for adult Cactus Wrens, with adults more likely to remain on the same territory following years of increased precipitation. There was no difference in adult movement between populations. Arthropods were collected in pitfall traps and by vacuum in 23 Cactus Wren territories during 3 sampling periods in 2016 (early nesting, peak nesting, and late nesting). Arthropods of 19 orders and at least 128 families were collected. Analysis of 43 Cactus Wren fecal samples identified 10 arthropod orders that were present in more than 10 percent of fecal samples. The most abundant arthropod order collected was Hymenoptera; however, Cactus Wrens consumed arthropods in the order Hymenoptera significantly less than their availability, suggesting that this order was avoided. No other orders were significantly selected or avoided; however, selection indices of arthropod families identified that two families of arthropods (Isopoda Porcellionidae [woodlice] and Hymenoptera Formicidae [ants]) were avoided. After excluding the taxa that were avoided or not represented in fecal samples, 95 percent of Cactus Wren prey items were collected in pitfall traps and 5 percent were collected by vacuum. The most abundant prey orders captured were Diptera, Coleoptera, Hemiptera, Hymenoptera, and Aranea. Analysis of the abundance of Cactus Wren prey items by vegetation type and sampling period indicated that vegetation type by itself was not a significant predictor of arthropod abundance but interacted with sampling period. Seasonal availability of arthropods was highest in the peak nesting period, followed by early and late nesting periods for California sagebrush ( Artemisia californica ), lemonadeberry ( Rhus integrifolia ), non-native grass, and bare ground, whereas availability increased from early to late nesting periods for blue elderberry ( Sambucus mexicana spp. caerulea ), cactus ( Opuntia spp. and Cylindropuntia spp.), California buckwheat ( Eriogonum fasciculatum ), native bunch grasses, and black mustard ( Brassica nigra ). During the early nesting period, arthropods were most abundant in native bunch grasses and least abundant in lemonadeberry. During the peak nesting period, arthropods were most abundant in native bunch grasses and in areas of bare ground and were least abundant in cactus and blue elderberry. During late nesting, arthropods were most abundant in blue elderberry and non-native grass and least abundant in lemonadeberry and mustard. Each year from 2015 to 2019, vegetation data were collected at the same 23 territories where arthropods were sampled: 9 territories in the Otay population and 14 territories in the San Diego population. Cactus, California buckwheat, and non-native grasses were detected within at least 60 percent of sampling points in the Otay population. Cactus, California sagebrush, California buckwheat, non-native grass, and black mustard each were detected within an average of 40 percent of sampling points in the San Diego population. No native bunch grass or lemonadeberry were recorded at the Lake Jennings site within the San Diego population. The cover of shrub species was relatively stable throughout the 5 years. Cover of herbaceous species and bare ground had greater annual variation than shrub species. We found that vegetation cover varied widely among territories, with territory accounting for 69 percent of the variation in vegetation cover. Redundancy analysis allowed us to identify the vegetation types that accounted for the most variation. We used the top scores from the redundancy analysis to identify six vegetation types to be used in generalized linear mixed models analyzing the relationships between vegetation type, precipitation, and Cactus Wren breeding productivity. Three vegetation variables influenced the number of fledglings produced per pair. California sagebrush had a positive effect on the number of fledglings per pair whereas non-native grass and black mustard had a negative effect. Breeding productivity, survival, and movements of adult and first-year Cactus Wrens indicated that the Otay population behaved similarly to, if not out-performed, the San Diego population during the span of our project, suggesting that the driving forces behind low numbers of Cactus Wrens in the Otay population before 2015 were no longer in effect. The Cactus Wren populations in Otay and San Diego reached a peak in 2018, which followed a year of high productivity and survivorship, both of which were correlated with high precipitation. This peak in population size was consistent with reproductive timing and productivity in other bird populations in semi-arid ecosystems that were linked to precipitation and arthropod abundance. We did not find a strong link among arthropod abundance, vegetation composition, and Cactus Wren breeding productivity, likely in part because arthropod abundance varied by vegetation type and sampling period, suggesting that different vegetation types provided important sources of prey at different periods of the breeding season. Arthropod abundance also may not represent arthropod availability when vegetation structure discourages the ground foraging behavior of species such as Cactus Wrens. Cover of non-native grass negatively influenced breeding productivity, although arthropods were abundant in non-native grass. Other factors that could have influenced differential breeding productivity between the Otay and San Diego populations were habitat restoration, control of annual herbaceous vegetation, human disturbance, lingering effects of wildfire, and nest predation. Overall, precipitation appeared to be a driver of Cactus Wren breeding productivity and possibly survival, potentially obscuring proximate effects of arthropod or vegetation composition.

California↗
USGS2022

National strategy for landslide loss reduction

Executive Summary Landslide hazards are present in all 50 States and most U.S. territories, and they affect lives, property, infrastructure, and the environment. Landslides are the downslope move­ment of earth materials under the force of gravity. They can occur without any obvious trigger. Widespread or severe land­slide events are often driven by such hazards as hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, heavy rain events, flooding, and wildfires. Landslides can also cause their own cascading consequences, such as the spread of hazardous materials or the creation of devastating local tsunamis. This strategy document describes goals and strategic actions of a comprehensive strategy to meet key challenges to reducing the Nation’s risk from landslide hazards equitably and effectively. The document follows the direction of the National Landslide Preparedness Act (Public Law 116–323) by presenting a strategy for addressing landslide hazards, including risk reduction and response. The act directs the Department of the Interior to establish a program that will work with State, Tribal, and local governments as well as with academia, the private sector, community-based groups, and nonprofit organizations to identify landslide hazards and risk and improve communication, coordination, and emergency preparedness, with the objective of reducing landslide losses. As the only Federal program dedicated to landslide hazard science, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Landslide Hazards Program will lead and coordinate many of the efforts described in this strategy document. Landslide hazard risk reduction must be undertaken collectively and collaboratively across the Federal Government. This strategy document will provide a framework for the creation of an interagency management plan that describes the programs, projects, workforce, and budgets required to carry out the national strategy. The strategy outlined in this document presents a vision of how to equitably produce, communicate, and apply landslide data and science to support a broad range of land management, infrastructure, planning, and emergency response decisions. These decisions are made by a variety of actors, including private and nonprofit landholders; State, Tribal, territorial, city, and county planners; emergency managers; engineers; infrastructure managers; Federal agencies and their partners; and community leaders and individuals. Supporting those decisions and reducing the Nation’s vulnerability to landslides requires overcoming three main challenges: (1) gaps in basic information needed to describe and understand landslide occurrence and societal risk, (2) difficulty in accurately mapping and forecasting landslide hazards, and (3) communication and coordination among the many jurisdictions and sectors that have responsi­bility for and interest in reducing landslide losses. To address those challenges, this strategy document puts forward a series of strategic actions to achieve four goals: Assess: Decision makers have access to detailed, nationwide, and contextually relevant information on land­slide hazard and risk. Coordinate: Landslide hazard mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery efforts are coordinated across Federal, State, Tribal, territorial, and local levels. Plan: Communities and land managers are prepared and able to plan for landslide hazards. Respond: Landslide surveillance, warnings, and responses to events are effective, efficient, equitable, coopera­tive, and data-driven to protect lives, property, infrastructure, and the environment. These strategic actions focus on expanding the knowl­edge of societal risk posed by landslides as well as better understanding of where, when, and why they occur. They focus on applying that knowledge to support landslide risk reduction efforts and decisions, including the establishment of new advisory, coordination, and working groups focused on landslide hazard and risk. They take into account that supporting landslide loss reduction decisions also requires new guidance, tools, and training codeveloped with the entities, organizations, and individuals faced with making those decisions. Finally, they address actions needed to support and expand landslide warning information and improve the technical response to landslide emergencies.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

A sagebrush conservation design to proactively restore America’s sagebrush biome

A working group of experts with diverse professional backgrounds and disciplinary expertise was assembled to conceptualize a spatially explicit conservation design to support and inform the Sagebrush Conservation Strategy Part 2. The goal was to leverage recent advancements in remotely sensed landcover products to develop spatially and temporally explicit maps of sagebrush rangeland condition and landscape threats. In addition, the group sought to provide a common basis for understanding the state of sagebrush rangelands through time. First, the study team developed a spatially explicit model to assess geographic patterns in sagebrush ecological integrity and used this model to identify core sagebrush areas (CSAs), growth opportunity areas (GOAs), and other rangeland areas (ORAs) across the biome. Among the identified rangelands, 33.4 million acres were classified as CSAs; 84.3 million acres as GOAs; and 127.2 million acres as ORAs as of 2020. Second, the team sought to demonstrate the ecological relevance of the identified CSAs and GOAs by comparing these data with independent datasets for sagebrush obligate species of conservation concern. Geographical patterns in sagebrush ecological integrity were strongly associated with the occurrence of high-priority species and also displayed clear links to population performance for greater sage-grouse. Third, the team parsed out the type, location, and acres of primary threats within the different categories (CSAs, GOAs, and ORAs) to help focus active management by identifying places where multiagency and organization efforts can protect CSAs and GOAs that have higher levels of integrity with lower cumulative threats. The assessment of the condition of the sagebrush biome (that is, the location, amount, and conservation status) indicated that complex ecosystem function problems are driving ~73 percent of the demonstrated threats within the CSAs and GOAs (rather than point-source problems, such as human development). Fourth, the team developed trend estimates for the identified CSAs and GOAs and three selected primary threats (invasive annual grasses, conifer encroachment, and human modification) to the sagebrush biome from 2001 to 2020. Results showed that an average of 1.3 million acres per year have transitioned to ORAs at an annual rate of −1.34 percent. Fifth, the team developed an approach to integrate climate change effects into the threat-based landscape conservation design and conducted an initial assessment on the magnitude of near-term climate effects in the context of observed historical trends. The team’s analysis suggests that climate change alone is unlikely to be the dominant threat to sagebrush ecological integrity in the next few decades, although interactions of climate with wildfire and invasive annual grasses may be an important threat, especially in the longer term. A spatial overlap analysis was performed and highlighted 45.8 million acres of shared priorities among existing conservation frameworks to help anchor and guide collaborative landscape-scale conservation of areas that still have no to low threats. This information is critical to provide context for decisions about the volume and nature of conservation actions and funding requirements.

western United States↗
USGS2023

User needs assessment for postfire debris-flow inundation hazard products

Debris flows are a type of mass movement that is more likely after wildfires, and while existing hazard assessments evaluate the rainfall intensities that are likely to trigger debris flows, no operational hazard assessment exists for identifying the areas where they will run out after initiation. Fifteen participants who work in a wide range of job functions associated with southern California postfire hazards were selected using purposive sampling for unstructured interviews about useful characteristics and needs for postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessments. The interview guide was developed by a team of social and physical scientists following best practices for engaging with users. The guide focused on target information that could influence ongoing or not-yet-initiated research on debris-flow physics and hazard assessment methodology. Following standard methods for user needs assessment, the audio from the unstructured interviews was recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using a thematic coding scheme. Participants reported engaging with postfire debris-flow inundation as one of multiple postfire hazards and their information needs reflect this breadth. Most participants were from organizations with life and property mandates, and this focused their concerns on where debris-flow inundation could impact people’s physical safety, the ability of populations to egress, and damage to property. Common comments included, (1) the need to interpret inundation hazard assessments in the context of forecast rainfall—which are typically associated with different timeframes, 15 and 60 minutes, respectively; (2) the need to provide multiple scenarios in a hazard assessment to show how the hazard changes under different external factors such as varying rainfall intensity; and (3) the tension between fully reflecting all sources of uncertainty in identifying impacted areas and a high level of precision needed to determine evacuation zones in order to reduce evacuation fatigue. Participants saw utility in both low-resolution hazard assessments over large areas and fine-resolution targeted assessments over small areas, noting that the identification of target areas could pose an ethical challenge because some areas might be prioritized over others. Participants were concerned about the hazard posed by the continuum of postfire hydrologic hazards, including hyperconcentrated flows. Finally, participants recognized that the shrinking time window between the end of fire season and the start of the wet season in southern California makes the production, interpretation, and use of rapid postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessments both important and challenging.

California↗
USGS2023

Synthesis of climate and ecological science to support grassland management priorities in the North Central Region

Grasslands in the Great Plains are of ecological, economic, and cultural importance in the United States. In response to a need to understand how climate change and variability will impact grassland ecosystems and their management in the 21st century, the U.S. Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center led a synthesis of peer-reviewed climate and ecology literature relevant to grassland management in the North Central Region (including Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). This synthesis was done to begin to address grassland managers’ information needs and identify research gaps. This open-file report summarizes the impacts of climate change and variability on temperature, water availability, wildfire, vegetation, wildlife, large-bodied ruminants, grazing, and land-use change and the implications for grassland management in the North Central region. This open-file report also identifies areas in which further research is needed. U.S. Geological Survey funded this project.

Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota,↗
USGS2023

Status, trend, and monitoring effectiveness of Marbled Murrelet ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) at sea abundance and reproductive output off central California, 1999–2021

Marbled Murrelets ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) have been listed as “endangered” by the State of California and “threatened” by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service since 1992 in California, Oregon, and Washington. Information regarding murrelet abundance, distribution, and habitat associations is critical for risk assessment, effective management, evaluation of conservation efficacy, and ultimately, the meeting of Federal- and State-mandated recovery efforts. From 1999 to present, line-transect surveys have been performed to estimate at-sea abundance and reproductive output of Marbled Murrelets in the marine environment in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Conservation Zone 6 (San Francisco Bay to Point Sur in central California). Using this long-term annual time series, we developed a new and comprehensive analytical framework to estimate annual murrelet abundance and trend at sea, evaluated the effectiveness of spatial and temporal components of the monitoring study design, assessed two measures of annual murrelet reproductive output, and developed new spatial models to map murrelet at-sea density and estimate model-based annual at-sea abundances. The long-term average, design-based after-hatch-year (AHY) abundance estimate for the study area was 376 murrelets (range: 163–586 annually), and we did not detect any significant trend during the 23 years of monitoring. Spatial-model-based AHY abundance estimates were similar to design-based estimates but with smaller estimated variance. The AHY murrelets were most abundant nearshore, with little annual variation; alongshore, distribution was more annually variable, and some long-term hotspots occurred, particularly around Point Año Nuevo. The AHY murrelet densities were greatest in July and least in June and August. The long-term average hatch-year (HY) abundance estimate was 13 murrelets (range: 0–31 annually), and the long-term average HY:AHY ratio was 0.052; both metrics indicated similar interannual patterns. Evidence of a significant trend in either metric of reproductive output was not detected; although large overlap among interannual abundance and ratio estimates at the 95-percent confidence interval level made it difficult to evaluate interannual differences. Despite the apparent long-term stability in murrelet abundance in this region from 1999 to 2021, future long-term annual monitoring at sea will be critical to determine if the large-scale August 2020 CZU Santa Cruz Mountain wildfire that occurred adjacent to our study area affects local murrelet at-sea abundance and distribution. We also evaluated potential changes to survey and analytical design that could benefit this monitoring program in the future. Results indicated that eliminating the offshore stratum, focusing more effort on the nearshore stratum, and doing fewer surveys focused on a narrower timeframe could maintain or improve AHY trend estimates while preserving the ability to compare them to past years.

California↗
USGS2024

Distribution, abundance, and breeding activities of the Least Bell's Vireo at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California—2022 annual report

Executive Summary The purpose of this report is to provide the Marine Corps with an annual summary of abundance, breeding activity, demography, and habitat use of endangered Least Bell’s Vireos ( Vireo bellii pusillus ) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP or “Base”). Surveys for the Least Bell's Vireo were completed at MCBCP, California, between April 4 and July 12, 2022. Core survey areas and a subset of non-core areas in drainages containing riparian habitat suitable for vireos were surveyed two to four times. We detected 571 territorial male vireos and 14 transient vireos in core survey areas. An additional 90 territorial male vireos and 2 transients were detected in non-core survey areas. Transient vireos were detected on 7 of the 11 drainages/sites surveyed (core and non-core areas). Of the vireo territories in core areas, 90 percent were on the four most populated drainages, with the Santa Margarita River containing 73 percent of all territories in areas surveyed on Base. In core areas, 81 percent of male vireos were confirmed as paired; 61 percent of male vireos in non-core areas were confirmed as paired. The number of documented Least Bell’s Vireo territories in core survey areas on MCBCP increased 4 percent from 2021 to 2022. In three core survey area drainages, the number of territories increased by at least two, and in five core survey area drainages, the number of vireo territories decreased by at least two between 2021 and 2022. The increase in the number of vireo territories on MCBCP was consistent with population changes at the lower San Luis Rey River (7-percent increase), but not with Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton (10-percent decrease). A wildfire in July 2021 burned approximately 22 hectares of vireo habitat on the Santa Margarita River. There was no difference in the number of vireo territories within the fire perimeter before the fire (three territories in 2021) and after the fire (three territories in 2022). Most core-area vireos (52 percent, including transients) used mixed willow (Salix spp.) riparian habitat. An additional 8 percent of birds occupied willow habitat co-dominated by Western sycamores ( Platanus racemosa ) or Fremont cottonwoods ( Populus fremontii ). Riparian scrub composed of mule fat ( Baccharis salicifolia ), sandbar willow ( S. exigua ), or blue elderberry ( Sambucus mexicana ) was used at 37 percent of vireo territories. Upland scrub was used by 2 percent of the vireos, and 1 percent of vireo territories were in drier habitats co-dominated by coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and sycamore. In 2019, MCBCP began operating an artificial seep along the Santa Margarita River; then, in 2021, two additional artificial seeps became operational. The artificial seeps pumped water to the surface starting in March and ending in August each year during daylight hours and were designed to increase the amount of surface water to enhance Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) breeding habitat. Although this enhancement was designed to benefit flycatchers, few flycatchers have inhabited the seep areas within the past several years; therefore, vireos were selected as a surrogate species to determine effects of the habitat enhancement. This report presents the third year of analyses of vireo and vegetation response to the artificial seeps. We sampled vegetation in two Seep sites and two Reference sites to determine the effects of surface water enhancement by seep pumps installed along the Santa Margarita River. Total vegetation cover below 2 meters (m) was greater at Seep sites than at Reference sites. Conversely, there was more non-native vegetation cover above 2 m (from 2 to 4 m) at Reference sites than at Seep sites. Soil moisture was greater at Seep sites than at Reference sites and decreased with increasing distance from the seep outlets. Soil moisture was positively correlated with total foliage cover and woody cover at most height categories. Soil moisture was not correlated with total herbaceous cover at any height category, although it was positively correlated with native herbaceous cover from 1 to 2 m and negatively correlated with non-native cover from 2 to 4 m. The number of vireo fledglings produced per egg was positively correlated with woody cover from 0 to 2 m but negatively correlated with herbaceous cover from 0 to 2 m. The number of fledglings produced per pair was negatively correlated with herbaceous and non-native vegetation cover below 2 m. The U.S. Geological Survey has been color banding Least Bell’s Vireos on Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton since 1995. By the end of 2021, 978 Least Bell’s Vireos had been color banded on Base. In 2022, we continued to color band and resight color banded Least Bell’s Vireos to evaluate adult site fidelity, between-year movement, and the effect of surface-water enhancement on vireo site fidelity and between-year movement. We banded 135 Least Bell's Vireos for the first time during the 2022 season. Birds banded included 4 adult vireos and 131 juveniles. All adult vireos were banded with unique color combinations. The juvenile vireos (all nestlings) were banded with a single gold numbered federal band on the left leg. There were 43 Least Bell's Vireos banded before the 2022 breeding season that were resighted and identified on Base in 2022. Of these vireos, 39 were banded on Base, 3 were originally banded on the San Luis Rey River, and 1 was banded at Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to at least 7 years old. Base-wide survival of vireos was affected by sex, age, and year. Males had a significantly higher survival rate than females. Adults had a higher survival rate than first-year vireos. Survival for adults and first-year birds was lowest from 2020 to 2021 and highest from 2012 to 2013. The return rate of adult vireos to Seep or Reference sites was not affected by whether they were originally banded at a Seep versus Reference site. Most of the returning adult vireos showed strong between-year site fidelity. Of the adults detected in 2021 and 2022, 89 percent (92 percent of males; 67 percent of females) returned to within 100 m of their previous territory. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.1±0.2 kilometers (km). The average movement of first-year vireos detected in 2022 that fledged from a known nest on MCBCP in 2021 was 1.6±1.8 km. Vireo territory density at the Seep and Reference sites was similar before the seep pumps were installed. Although vireo territory density at Seep sites appeared greater than at Reference sites after the seep pumps were installed, the difference was not significant. We monitored Least Bell’s Vireo pairs to evaluate the effects of surface-water enhancement on nest success and breeding productivity. We monitored vireo nesting activity at 25 territories in 2 Seep sites and 25 territories in 2 Reference sites between March 31 and July 28. All territories except one were occupied by pairs, and all were “fully monitored,” meaning all nesting attempts were monitored at these territories. During the monitoring period, 97 nests (49 in Seep sites and 48 in Reference sites) were monitored. Breeding productivity was similar at the Seep and Reference sites (2.7 and 3.3 young fledged per pair, respectively), although more pairs at Reference sites than Seep sites fledged at least one young (96 versus 76 percent, respectively). There were no other differences in breeding productivity between Seep site pairs and Reference site pairs. According to the best model, daily nest survival in 2022 was not related to whether the territory was in a Seep versus a Reference site. Completed nests at the Seep sites had similar fledging success as nests at Reference sites in 2022. At Seep sites, 56 percent of nests fledged young whereas 67 percent of Reference nests successfully fledged young. Predation was believed to be the primary source of nest failure at both sites. Predation accounted for 80 percent and 73 percent of nest failures at Seep and Reference sites, respectively. Failure of the remaining nests was attributed to infertile eggs and other unknown causes. Vireos placed their nests in 12 plant species in 2022. We detected no differences in nest placement between successful and unsuccessful vireo nests or between Seep and Reference sites. Precipitation appeared to play a role in fluctuations in the vireo population on MCBCP; however, it could not be directly linked to annual vireo breeding productivity. One possible factor that may be confounding the relationship between vireo breeding productivity and precipitation may be nest parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ) in the region, especially on the nearby San Luis Rey River.

California↗
USGS2024

Greater sage-grouse habitat of Nevada and northeastern California—Integrating space use, habitat selection, and survival indices to guide areas for habitat management

Executive Summary Greater sage-grouse populations ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse) are threatened by a suite of disturbances and anthropogenic factors that have contributed to a net loss of sagebrush-dominant shrub cover in recent decades. Declines in sage-grouse populations are largely linked to habitat loss across their range. A key component of conservation and land use planning efforts for sage-grouse involves the continued monitoring and modeling of habitat requirements and suitability across its range. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is addressing the management of sage-grouse habitats on BLM-authorized public lands throughout the western United States through a land use planning amendment and associated environmental impact statement (86 FR 66331). More than 25 percent of the range-wide distribution of sage-grouse is within Nevada and northeastern California, and information on sage-grouse distribution and habitat requirements is important to guide appropriate management decisions. Therefore, the BLM has identified the need for updated spatially explicit information on sage-grouse habitat in Nevada and northeastern California to guide the land use planning amendment and associated management decisions. To address this need, researchers with the U.S. Geological Survey, in close cooperation with multiple State and Federal resource agency partners, including BLM, Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW), sought to map sage-grouse distribution and produce example habitat designations in these states. Herein, we report results of our primary study objective, which was to map sage-grouse habitat and create example habitat management areas, based on more than a decade of location and survival data collected from marked sage-grouse across the study region coupled with lek count survey data managed by the NDOW and the CDFW. We expanded on previously developed methodology to incorporate information on habitat selection and survival during reproductive life stages and specific seasons with updated sage-grouse location and known fate datasets, while also including brood-rearing areas that are understood to be threatened and important for population persistence. We combined predictive habitat map surfaces for each life stage and season with updated information on current occupancy patterns to classify habitat based on its suitability and probability of occupancy. We carried out additional steps to delineate specific example habitat management areas, specifically (1) incorporated corridors connecting key nesting and brood-rearing habitat, (2) corrected outputs for pre-wildfire habitat conditions within areas burned in the last 16 years, and (3) masked out areas of anthropogenic development. Our methodological example of deriving habitat management areas was intended to help inform decisions by BLM and other land managers regarding conservation and management of sage-grouse. Associated data products in the form of habitat maps provide updated, detailed, and comprehensive information about the status of habitats and can be useful to partner agencies in their efforts to designate and rank habitats for this species of high conservation concern in Nevada and California, with full recognition that on-the-ground field data and local sources of information and expertise should be used in conjunction with inferences from these models.

California, Idaho, Nevada↗