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At least 1,171 records · Page 65Linked to original sources

USGS2024

Olivine diffusion constrains months-scale magma transport within Kīlauea volcano’s summit reservoir system prior to the 2020 eruption

The unprecedented 2018 summit collapse at Kīlauea and subsequent 2020–2021 eruption within the newly deepened Halema‘uma‘u Crater provide an unparalleled opportunity to understand how collapse events impact a volcano’s shallow reservoir system and magmatic processes. Glass and olivine from tephra ejected by lava fountains and several explosions on 20–21 December, within a few hours of the 2020 eruption onset, yield information about pre-eruptive magma storage and transport. The olivine population is bimodal with zoned and non-zoned phenocrysts. Normally zoned olivine crystals with core compositions around Fo 88 have 30–50 μm wide Fo 82 overgrowth rims that have skeletal textures. Two skeletal xenocrysts (cores Fo 74 and Fo 81 ) are also reversely zoned up to Fo 82 rims. The crystal cores have trace element records of at least two cycles of growth and dissolution prior to the formation of the overgrowth rims. These rims and a separate population of non-zoned Fo 82 crystals are in Fe–Mg equilibrium with their host glass (average MgO of 6.9 ± 0.4 wt% (1σ), Mg# [Mg / (Mg + Fe 2+ )] of 0.57), which suggests undercooling after intrusion of magma to shallow levels in the plumbing system. In the years prior to the 2018 collapse, non-zoned Fo 81 olivine and slightly lower MgO glasses (6.8 wt%) reflected continuous mixing and compositional buffering of magma recharge into several km 3 of stored magma in the Halema‘uma‘u reservoir (1–2 km depth). The 2020 olivine crystals lack evidence of an intrusion mixing with resident shallow magma, indicating that magma transport occurred in a disrupted system, and/or it may not have significantly mixed with stored magma remaining in the Halema‘uma‘u reservoir after the events of 2018. Diffusion modeling of Fe–Mg exchange in the zoned 2020 olivine crystals yield timescales that are mostly 60 days prior to the eruption or less, which aligns well with 22–24 October 2020 and subsequent seismic swarms at Nāmakani Paio ~ 5 km west of Kīlauea’s summit caldera. This correlation indicates that magma intruding beneath the summit (volume accommodation, recorded by the olivine crystals) was expressed by tectonic earthquakes along the Ka‘ōiki fault zone (stress accommodation). The absence of precursory SO 2 within minutes prior to eruption also indicates that the 2020 December magma may have risen from 1 to 2 km depth to the surface in as little as 10 min.

Hawaii↗

USGS2003

A compendium of P- and S-wave velocities from surface-to-borehole logging; summary and reanalysis of previously published data and analysis of unpublished data

For over 28 years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been acquiring seismic velocity and geologic data at a number of locations in California, many of which were chosen because strong ground motions from earthquakes were recorded at the sites. The method for all measurements involves picking first arrivals of P- and S-waves from a surface source recorded at various depths in a borehole (as opposed to noninvasive methods, such as the SASW method [e.g., Brown et al., 2002]). The results from most of the sites are contained in a series of U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Reports (see References). Until now, none of the results have been available as computer files, and before 1992 the interpretation of the arrival times was in terms of piecemeal interval velocities, with no attempt to derive a layered model that would fit the travel times in an overall sense (the one exception is Porcella, 1984). In this report I reanalyze all of the arrival times in terms of layered models for P- and for S-wave velocities at each site, and I provide the results as computer files. In addition to the measurements reported in the open-file reports, I also include some borehole results from other reports, as well as some results never before published. I include data for 277 boreholes (at the time of this writing; more will be added to the web site as they are obtained), all in California (I have data from boreholes in Washington and Utah, but these will be published separately). I am also in the process of interpreting travel time data obtained using a seismic cone penetrometer at hundreds of sites; these data can be interpreted in the same way of those obtained from surface-to-borehole logging. When available, the data will be added to the web site (see below for information on obtaining data from the World Wide Web (WWW)). In addition to the basic borehole data and results, I provide information concerning strong-motion stations that I judge to be close enough to the boreholes that the borehole velocity models can be used as the velocity models beneath the stations.

California↗

USGS1975

Self-calibrating seismic amplifier and telemetry system

A frequency modulated, constant bandwidth, telemetry system has been designed to transmit simultaneously up to 8 channels of seismograph data from remote locations to a central recording site via radio or voice-grade telephone circuit. By utilizing state-of-the-art integrated circuits, the size of the remote unit has been considerably reduced over previous equipment and the power consumption has been decreased by a factor of over 100 to less than 2 milliwatts. This reduction in size and power makes it possible to package the electronic equipment, together with a year's supply of batteries, in a container the size of a tennis-ball can. The field equipment for a short-period station is now sealed in a 3-inch plastic tube 22 inches long . The tube, together with the connecting cable to the telephone terminal, is buried; greatly reducing losses due to water flooding, pilferage, etc. An important addition to the field unit is a daily calibration of the seismometer and amplifier. Specifications and instructions for the three units that compose the system are presented separately, as follows: 1. J302 Preamplifier and voltage controlled oscillator 2. C-4 Calibrator 3. J101 Discriminator

Open-File Report↗

USGS1979

Seismicity of the Tihamat-Asir region, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Knowledge of the seismicity of the west coast of Saudi Arabia is vitally important to the Kingdom. The eastern margin of the Red Sea, which includes all of the west coast of Saudi Arabia, is possibly cut by transform faults that may be capable of producing earthquakes large enough to cause damage in the heavily populated areas or in the industrial complexes under construction. Prior to this study, there were no seismic stations in Saudi Arabia and no studies of microearthquake activity. It was generally assumed that there were no active faults along the west coast. During the period 20 January to 22 February, 1978, five portable seismic stations were deployed in the Tihamat Asir in the southwest part of the country. A significant level of microearthquake activity was detected at a location that approximately coincides with the landward extension of the proposed transform fault. The recording of these earthquakes demonstrates that there are active faults at this location, probably associated with the currently active Red Sea tectonic system. The practical significance of these earthquakes cannot be evaluated from the few data available, and further studies should be undertaken to determine if there are significant seismic hazards along the west coast of Saudi Arabia.

Tihamat-Asir Region↗

USGS2021

Regional calibration of hybrid ground‐motion simulations in moderate seismicity areas: Application to the Upper Rhine Graben

This study presents the coupling of the spectral decomposition results for anelastic attenuation, stress drop, and site effects with the Graves‐Pitarka (GP) hybrid ground‐motion simulation methodology, as implemented on the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) broadband platform (BBP). It is targeted to applications in the Upper Rhine graben (URG), which is among the seismically active areas in western Europe, yet a moderate seismicity area. Our development consists of three main steps: (1) calibration of regional high‐frequency (HF) attenuation properties; (2) modification of the hybrid approach to add compressional waves in the HF computation and examine various strategies to evaluate site amplification factors in the Fourier domain (e.g., V S 30 "> V S 30 VS30 ‐based or site‐specific factors); (3) testing of the simulations using earthquake records from the URG ( ⁠ 3.7 < M w < 5 "> 3.7 < M w < 5 3.7<Mw<5 ⁠ ). The validation process of the simulated time histories is performed first on rock sites, and, then subsequently at all stations, whatever their site conditions. The performance of the simulations for rock sites is assessed through the standard validation technique in the BBP (comparison of the waveforms, intensity measures, and estimation of the response spectra model bias). We additionally compare the Fourier amplitude spectrum of the simulations and observations, and compute their corresponding bias. The results show that the simulated ground motions match the general characteristics of the recorded motions, and that the model bias generally fluctuates around zero across the broadband frequency range. Hence, the hybrid ground‐motion methodology implemented in the SCEC BBP can be successfully applied outside high‐seismicity areas and outside those areas for which it had been generally calibrated. Our results also show that HF modification and calibration were necessary to improve the fits with the observation, and demonstrate the potential benefits of using site‐specific amplification factors compared to V S 30 "> V S 30 VS30 ‐based amplification factors.

Upper Rhine Graben↗

USGS1972

Prospects for earthquake prediction and control

The San Andreas fault is viewed, according to the concepts of seafloor spreading and plate tectonics, as a transform fault that separates the Pacific and North American plates and along which relative movements of 2 to 6 cm/year have been taking place. The resulting strain can be released by creep, by earthquakes of moderate size, or (as near San Francisco and Los Angeles) by great earthquakes. Microearthquakes, as mapped by a dense seismograph network in central California, generally coincide with zones of the San Andreas fault system that are creeping. Microearthquakes are few and scattered in zones where elastic energy is being stored. Changes in the rate of strain, as recorded by tiltmeter arrays, have been observed before several earthquakes of about magnitude 4. Changes in fluid pressure may control timing of seismic activity and make it possible to control natural earthquakes by controlling variations in fluid pressure in fault zones. An experiment in earthquake control is underway at the Rangely oil field in Colorado, where the rates of fluid injection and withdrawal in experimental wells are being controlled.

California↗

USGS2010

Aminostratigraphy of surface and subsurface Quaternary sediments, North Carolina coastal plain, USA

The Quaternary stratigraphy and geochronology of the Albemarle Embayment of the North Carolina (NC) Coastal Plain is examined using amino acid racemization (AAR) in marine mollusks, in combination with geophysical, lithologic, and biostratigraphic analysis of 28 rotasonic cores drilled between 2002 and 2006. The Albemarle Embayment is bounded by structural highs to the north and south, and Quaternary strata thin westward toward the Suffolk paleoshoreline, frequently referred to as the Suffolk Scarp. The Quaternary section is up to ∼90 m thick, consists of a variety of estuarine, shelf, back-barrier, and lagoonal deposits, and has been influenced by multiple sea-level cycles. The temporal resolution of the amino acid racemization method is tested statistically and with the stratigraphic control provided by this geologic framework, and it is then applied to the correlation and age estimation of subsurface units throughout the region. Over 500 specimens (primarily Mercenaria and Mulinia ) from the subsurface section have been analyzed using either gas chromatographic (GC) or reverse-phase liquid chromatographic (RPLC) techniques. The subsurface stratigraphic data are compared with AAR results from numerous natural or excavated exposures from the surrounding region, as well as results from NC beach collections, to develop a comprehensive aminostratigraphic database for the entire Quaternary record within the NC coastal system. Age mixing, recognized in the beach collections, is also seen in subsurface sections, usually where major seismic reflections or core lithology indicate the presence of stratigraphic discontinuities. Kinetic models for racemization are tested within the regional stratigraphic framework, using either radiocarbon or U-series calibrations or comparison with regional biostratigraphy. Three major Pleistocene aminozones [AZ2, AZ3, and AZ4] are found throughout the region, all being found in superposition in several cores. Each can be subdivided, yielding a total of at least eight stratigraphically and statistically distinct aminozones. Kinetic modeling, supplemented with local calibration, indicates that these aminozones represent depositional events ranging from ∼80 ka to nearly 2 Ma. Three prominent seismic reflections are interpreted to represent the base of the early, middle, and late Pleistocene, respectively, roughly 2 Ma, 800 ka, and 130 ka. The large number of samples and the available stratigraphic control provide new insights into the capabilities and limitations of aminostratigraphic methods in assessing relative and numerical ages of Atlantic Coastal Plain Quaternary deposits.

North Carolina↗

USGS2000

Seismovolcanic signals at Deception Island volcano, Antarctica: Wave field analysis and source modeling

The seismovolcanic signals associated with the volcanic activity of Deception Island (Antarctica), recorded during three Antarctic summers (1994–1995, 1995–1996 and 1996–1997), are analyzed using a dense small-aperture (500 m) seismic array. The visual and spectral classification of the seismic events shows the existence of long-period and hybrid isolated seismic events, and of low-frequency, quasi-monochromatic and spasmodic continuous tremors. All spectra have the highest amplitudes in the frequency band between 1 and 4 Hz, while hybrids and spasmodic tremors have also significant amplitudes in the high-frequency band (4–10 Hz). The array analysis indicates that almost all the well-correlated low-frequency signals share similar array parameters (slowness and back azimuth) and have the same source area, close to the array site. The polarization analysis shows that phases at high-frequency are mostly composed of P waves, and those phases dominated by low frequencies can be interpreted as surface waves. No clear shear waves are evidenced. From the energy evaluation, we have found that the reduced displacement values for surface and body waves are confined in a narrow interval. Volcano-tectonic seismicity is located close to the array, at a depth shallower than 1 km. The wave-field properties of the seismovolcanic signals allow us to assume a unique source model, a shallow resonating fluid-filled crack system at a depth of some hundreds of meters. All of the seismic activity is interpreted as the response of a reasonably stable stationary geothermal process. The differences observed in the back azimuth between low and high frequencies are a near-field effect. A few episodes of the degassification process in an open conduit were observed and modeled with a simple organ pipe.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗

USGS2013

Mw 8.6 Sumatran earthquake of 11 April 2012: rare seaward expression of oblique subduction

The magnitude 8.6 and 8.2 earthquakes off northwestern Sumatra on 11 April 2012 generated small tsunami waves that were recorded by stations around the Indian Ocean. Combining differential travel-time modeling of tsunami waves with results from back projection of seismic data reveals a complex source with a significant trench-parallel component. The oblique plate convergence indicates that ~20-50 m of trench-parallel displacement could have accumulated since the last megathrust earthquake, only part of which has been taken up by the Great Sumatran fault. This suggests that the remaining trench-parallel motion was released during the magnitude 8.6 earthquake on 11 April 2012 within the subducting plate. The magnitude 8.6 earthquake is interpreted to be a result of oblique subduction as well as a reduction in normal stress due to the occurrence of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in 2004.

Geology↗

USGS2026

Syn-magmatic subsidence during the early stages of continental rifting in the Mesoproterozoic—A reanalysis of legacy data for the Midcontinent Rift, western Lake Superior

The Midcontinent Rift system (ca. 1.1 Ga) is a 2000-km-long series of elongated volcanic and sedimentary troughs and associated intrusive centers exposed chiefly in the Lake Superior region of North America. The rift system represents a long history of intense magmatism and subsequent sedimentation that was arrested by far-field tectonic events before sea-floor spreading was established. The premature cessation preserved a record of processes related to the beginning of continental rifting. The rift system under Lake Superior has been long studied using seismic-reflection data collected as part of the Great Lakes International Multidisciplinary Program on Crustal Evolution (GLIMPCE). We reexamine GLIMPCE Line C by developing a detailed velocity model for time to depth conversion constrained by other legacy data. We corroborate the model and develop a geologic interpretation using gravity and magnetic modeling and ties to geology mapped onshore. We recognize superposed subsiding sedimentary and volcanic basins for the southern half of the Line C depth section. This interpretation differs from previous paradigms that show major crustal faults that bound half-grabens or full grabens. We conclude that high-velocity (6.9 km/s) intrusive zones rather than major crustal faults border the sides of the basins. We speculate that the volcanic basin represents the initiation of seaward dipping reflectors. The syn-magmatic subsidence can be explained by dike injection and volcanic loading. Discrete lava basins throughout the region likely subsided at different times in a disorganized manner along the rift trend, raising questions about the long-term role of lithospheric thinning and melt generation.

Michigan, Minnesota, Ontario, Wisconsin↗

USGS2016

A rare moderate‐sized (Mw 4.9) earthquake in Kansas: Rupture process of the Milan, Kansas, earthquake of 12 November 2014 and its relationship to fluid injection

The largest recorded earthquake in Kansas occurred northeast of Milan on 12 November 2014 ( M w 4.9) in a region previously devoid of significant seismic activity. Applying multistation processing to data from local stations, we are able to detail the rupture process and rupture geometry of the mainshock, identify the causative fault plane, and delineate the expansion and extent of the subsequent seismic activity. The earthquake followed rapid increases of fluid injection by multiple wastewater injection wells in the vicinity of the fault. The source parameters and behavior of the Milan earthquake and foreshock–aftershock sequence are similar to characteristics of other earthquakes induced by wastewater injection into permeable formations overlying crystalline basement. This earthquake also provides an opportunity to test the empirical relation that uses felt area to estimate moment magnitude for historical earthquakes for Kansas.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2014

Three-dimensional ground-motion simulations of earthquakes for the Hanford area, Washington

This report describes the results of ground-motion simulations of earthquakes using three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) crustal models conducted for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of the Hanford facility, Washington, under the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) guidelines. The first portion of this report demonstrates that the 3D seismic velocity model for the area produces synthetic seismograms with characteristics (spectral response values, duration) that better match those of the observed recordings of local earthquakes, compared to a 1D model with horizontal layers. The second part of the report compares the response spectra of synthetics from 3D and 1D models for moment magnitude (M) 6.6–6.8 earthquakes on three nearby faults and for a dipping plane wave source meant to approximate regional S-waves from a Cascadia great earthquake. The 1D models are specific to each site used for the PSHA. The use of the 3D model produces spectral response accelerations at periods of 0.5–2.0 seconds as much as a factor of 4.5 greater than those from the 1D models for the crustal fault sources. The spectral accelerations of the 3D synthetics for the Cascadia plane-wave source are as much as a factor of 9 greater than those from the 1D models. The differences between the spectral accelerations for the 3D and 1D models are most pronounced for sites with thicker supra-basalt sediments and for stations with earthquakes on the Rattlesnake Hills fault and for the Cascadia plane-wave source.

Washington↗

USGS2016

Comparisons between vs30 and spectral response for 30 sites in Newcastle, Australia from collocated seismic cone penetrometer, active- and passive-source vs data

Although the time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity down to 30 m depth ( V S 30 ) can be a proxy for estimating earthquake ground‐motion amplification, significant controversy exists about its limitations when used as a single parameter for the prediction of amplification. To examine this question in absence of relevant strong‐motion records, we use a range of different methods to measure the shear‐wave velocity profiles and the resulting theoretical site amplification factors (AFs) for 30 sites in the Newcastle area, Australia, in a series of blind comparison studies. The multimethod approach used here combines past seismic cone penetrometer and spectral analysis of surface‐wave data, with newly acquired horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratio, passive‐source surface‐wave spatial autocorrelation (SPAC), refraction microtremor (ReMi), and multichannel analysis of surface‐wave data. The various measurement techniques predicted a range of different AFs. The SPAC and ReMi techniques have the smallest overall deviation from the median AF for the majority of sites. We show that V S 30 can be related to spectral response above a period T of 0.5 s but not necessarily with the maximum amplification according to the modeling done based on the measured shear‐wave velocity profiles. Both V S 30 and AF values are influenced by the velocity ratio between bedrock and overlying sediments and the presence of surficial thin low‐velocity layers (<2 m thick and <150 m/s), but the velocity ratio is what mostly affects the AF. At 0.2< T <0.4 s, the AFs are largely controlled by the surficial geology of a particular site. AF maxima are the highest in the hard classes, which is the inverse of the findings used in the Australian Building Code. Only for T >0.5 s do the amplification curves consistently show higher values for soft site classes and lower for hard classes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2005

Preliminary analysis of strong-motion recordings from the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California earthquake

The 2004 M w 6.0 Parkfield earthquake of 28 September 2004 occurred on the San Andreas Fault near the small town of Parkfield in central California. As a result of a widely accepted likelihood of an earthquake in the area, a large number of strong-motion stations and other types of seismic stations had been deployed in the area. The Parkfield earthquake occurred along the same segment of the San Andreas Fault that ruptured during the 1966 Parkfield earthquake, resulting in a unique set of strong-motion measurements by arrays designed specifically for the purpose of recording an event along this fault segment. The most extensive and dense set of near-fault strong-motion recordings yet obtained for any earthquake in California was obtained in this event. This paper provides a detailed description of the arrays and the resultant strong-motion measurements of the mainshock, as well as preliminary observations. We also invite interested parties to participate in the Turkey Flat blind prediction experiment, described later in the paper. More general preliminary seismological results for this earthquake can be found in Langbein et al. ( 2005 , this issue).

California↗

USGS2012

Aftershock seismicity of the 2010 Maule Mw=8.8 Chile, earthquake: Correlation between co-seismic slip models and aftershock distribution?

The 27 February 2010 Maule, Chile (Mw=8.8) earthquake is one of the best instrumentally observed subduction zone megathrust events. Here we present locations, magnitudes and cumulative equivalent moment of the first -2 months of aftershocks, recorded on a temporary network deployed within 2 weeks of the occurrence of the mainshock. Using automatically-determined onset times and a back projection approach for event association, we are able to detect over 30,000 events in the time period analyzed. To further increase the location accuracy, we systematically searched for potential S-wave arrivals and events were located in a regional 2D velocity model. Additionally, we calculated regional moment tensors to gain insight into the deformation history of the aftershock sequence. We find that the aftershock seismicity is concentrated between 40 and 140 km distance from the trench over a depth range of 10 to 35 km. Focal mechanisms indicate a predominance of thrust faulting, with occasional normal faulting events. Increased activity is seen in the outer-rise region of the Nazca plate, predominantly in the northern part of the rupture area. Further down-dip, a second band of clustered seismicity, showing mainly thrust motion, is located at depths of 40–45 km. By comparing recent published mainshock source inversions with our aftershock distribution, we discriminate slip models based on the assumption that aftershocks occur in areas of rapid transition between high and low slip, surrounding high-slip regions of the mainshock.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS1989

Seismic methods for determining earthquake source parameters and lithospheric structure

The seismologic methods most commonly used in studies of earthquakes and the structure of the continental lithosphere are reviewed in three main sections: earthquake source parameter determinations, the determination of earth structure using natural sources, and controlled-source seismology. The emphasis in each section is on a description of data, the principles behind the analysis techniques, and the assumptions and uncertainties in interpretation. Rather than focusing on future directions in seismology, the goal here is to summarize past and current practice as a companion to the review papers in this volume. Reliable earthquake hypocenters and focal mechanisms require seismograph locations with a broad distribution in azimuth and distance from the earthquakes; a recording within one focal depth of the epicenter provides excellent hypocentral depth control. For earthquakes of magnitude greater than 4.5, waveform modeling methods may be used to determine source parameters. The seismic moment tensor provides the most complete and accurate measure of earthquake source parameters, and offers a dynamic picture of the faulting process. Methods for determining the Earth’s structure from natural sources exist for local, regional, and teleseismic sources. One-dimensional models of structure are obtained from body and surface waves using both forward and inverse modeling. Forward-modeling methods include consideration of seismic amplitudes and waveforms, but lack the formal resolution estimates obtained with inverse methods. Two- and three-dimensional lithospheric models are derived using various inverse methods, but at present most of these methods consider only traveltimes of body waves. Controlled-source studies of the Earth’s structure are generally divided by method into seismic refraction/wide-angle reflection and seismic reflection studies. Seismic refraction profiles are usually interpreted in terms of two-dimensional structure by forward modeling of traveltimes and amplitudes. The refraction method gives excellent estimates of seismic velocities, but relatively low resolution of structure. Formal resolution estimates are not possible for models derived from forward modeling, but informal estimates can be obtained by perturbing the best-fitting model. Inversion methods for seismic refraction data for one-dimensional models are well established, and two- and three-dimensional methods, including tomography, have recently been developed. Seismic reflection data provide the highest resolution of crustal structure, and have provided many important geological insights in the past decade. The acquisition and processing of these data have been greatly advanced by the hydrocarbon exploration industry. However, reliable crustal velocity control is generally lacking, and the origin of deep crustal reflections remains unclear, resulting in nonunique interpretations. A new form of lithospheric seismology has recently emerged that combines the advantages of seismic refraction and seismic reflection profiles, and the distinction between the two methods is steadily diminishing. Major challenges for future work will be the collection of data that are more densely sampled in space, and the development of interpretation methods that provide quantitative estimates of the uncertainties in the calculated models.

GSA Memoirs↗

USGS2018

Research to improve ShakeAlert earthquake early warning products and their utility

Earthquake early warning (EEW) is the rapid detection of an earthquake and issuance of an alert or notification to people and vulnerable systems likely to experience potentially damaging ground shaking. The level of ground shaking that is considered damaging is defined by the specific application; for example, manufacturing equipment may experience damage at a lower intensity ground shaking than would cause damage to a building. Along the West Coast of the United States, the warning times for ground shaking could range as high as tens of seconds for moderate levels of ground shaking, or potentially longer, if a lower ground-shaking threshold is used to issue alerts. However, it is not always possible to provide advance warning of ground shaking, particularly for locations close to an earthquake that are most likely to experience very strong ground shaking. EEW alerts may be useful to individuals who can use a few seconds to move to a safe zone and to electromechanical systems that can take automatic actions to reduce damage and injuries. An EEW system, ShakeAlert, has been under development in the United States since 2006. Federal and State governments, as well as the private sector, are now investing in the ShakeAlert prototype system that will, when completed, become an operational public system for the West Coast of the United States. While the current prototype is delivering alerts to test users, improvements to the accuracy, timeliness, and utility of the alerts are needed. For this reason, it is essential that the ShakeAlert system be continuously improved through targeted research, involving not only the current ShakeAlert partner organizations, but also the broader scientific, engineering, and emergencyresponse communities. To this end, this report describes the opportunities for improvement that can be addressed through research and development over the next 5 years. Our recommendations are organized into four areas: (1) understand EEW capabilities and user needs, (2) make alerts as fast and accurate as possible, (3) ensure reliability when it counts, and (4) explore the use of new instrumentation. The first challenge is to understand EEW capabilities and user needs. EEW must deliver actionable information to people and to automated systems to mitigate short- and longterm impacts of damaging ground shaking, so development of EEW must be motivated by the needs of users. Within this challenge, we must study the technical capabilities and limitations of EEW in general, and the ShakeAlert system specifically. This includes development of performance metrics that assess the timeliness and accuracy of alerts to understand the value and utility of the ShakeAlert EEW product(s) for various user groups, including different industry sectors, emergency-management agencies, and the public. Research is needed to define the alerting choices that maximize the utility of the system for users and to determine what the available communication pathways are for providing timely alert information. Additionally, we engage users to assess how alerts will be used by different sectors to mitigate losses and to inform EEW product design. Further, social-science research is needed to develop alert messaging, including what relevant prior and follow-up information are required, to ensure effective use of alerts. The second challenge is to make alerts as fast and as accurate as possible. The timeliness and accuracy of an EEW alert is important because it will set in motion a series of actions and downstream products. An EEW alert will trigger notification across emergency-alert systems and across multiple communication channels to populations in impacted regions. The EEW alert region may grow as the earthquake fault-rupture length increases, and the EEW system’s characterization of it, evolves. We must continue research into new or improved seismic and geodetic waveform-processing methods necessary to rapidly characterize the expected ground shaking and associated uncertainties. It is important to thoroughly evaluate whether new methods improve alerts through more accurate ground-motion estimates and (or) reduced latencies (that is, longer warning times). New methods could include tracking the extent of a large rupture in real time (known as finite-fault algorithms) and ground-motionbased EEW algorithms. Additionally, ground motion predictions could be optimized for each earthquake as the earthquake fault rupture progresses by using, for example, event terms to shift ground-motion curves for more (or less) energetic ruptures. The third challenge is to ensure reliability when it counts. This challenge requires us to explore approaches that assess the expected performance of ShakeAlert across the range of earthquake magnitudes, locations, and depths that may occur within the alerting region. Large, damaging earthquakes and their associated aftershock sequences matter most for hazard and for EEW, but these large-earthquake sequences occur infrequently. We expect ShakeAlert to respond robustly to these large-earthquake sequences despite potentially long periods of relative seismic quiescence in the intervening years, and in spite of inevitable communication challenges that arise during and after a large earthquake. We must develop methods to utilize the broadest available datasets to test EEW performance, including ground-motion data recorded in other parts of the world. The observational period for large, damaging earthquakes in any particular region has been short in comparison to estimated large-earthquake recurrence times. Ground-motion records for very large, damaging western United States events and major aftershock sequences do not yet exist, nor do data exist for all potential sources of noise and spurious signals that ShakeAlert must be “tuned” to reject. In addition, robust synthetic data could provide the flexibility to test a wider range of earthquake magnitude, tectonic-setting, and noise scenarios than are covered by existing observational data. Synthetic ground-motion data must be thoroughly vetted against records of smaller magnitude earthquakes to ensure that they accurately capture both the onset and the amplitude of the ground shaking. The final challenge is to explore the use of new instrumentation. The development of EEW around the world to date has focused on the use of high-quality, scientific-grade seismic and geodetic instrumentation. The use of additional types of instrumentation or information may also improve EEW products by filling gaps in sensor coverage in countries that already have dense seismic networks or enable EEW in countries without such networks. We must keep up with these developments and continuously assess their value in supplementing existing EEW systems, such as ShakeAlert, or enabling EEW where such systems do not exist. Such developments include low-cost instrumentation with microelectromechanical system (MEMS) sensors and global positioning system (GPS)/global navigation satellite system (GNSS) antennas embedded in low-cost consumer electronics, sea-floor seismometers, geodetic instrumentation deployed along the Cascadia and Alaska megathrust margins of western North America, and borehole strainmeters that are already deployed across the region.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2017

Rapid Holocene coastal change revealed by high-resolution micropaleontological analysis, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina, USA

Foraminiferal analyses of 404 contiguous samples, supported by diatom, lithologic, geochronologic and seismic data, reveal both rapid and gradual Holocene paleoenvironmental changes in an 8.21-m vibracore taken from southern Pamlico Sound, North Carolina. Data record initial flooding of a latest Pleistocene river drainage and the formation of an estuary 9000. yr ago. Estuarine conditions were punctuated by two intervals of marine influence from approximately 4100 to 3700 and 1150 to 500. cal. yr BP. Foraminiferal assemblages in the muddy sand facies that accumulated during these intervals contain many well-preserved benthic foraminiferal species, which occur today in open marine settings as deep as the mid shelf, and significant numbers of well-preserved planktonic foraminifera, some typical of Gulf Stream waters. We postulate that these marine-influenced units resulted from temporary destruction of the southern Outer Banks barrier islands by hurricanes. The second increase in marine influence is coeval with increased rate of sea-level rise and a peak in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. This high-resolution analysis demonstrates the range of environmental variability and the rapidity of coastal change that can result from the interplay of changing climate, sea level and geomorphology in an estuarine setting. ?? 2011 University of Washington.

North Carolina↗