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Biogeochemical cycling of selenium in the San Joaquin Valley, California, USA

Subsurface agricultural drainage waters from western San Joaquin Valley, California, were found to contain elevated concentrations of the element selenium in the form of selenate. In 1978, these drainage waters began to replace previous input to Kesterson Reservoir, a pond system within Kesterson National Wildlife Refuge; this substitution was completed by 1982. In the 1983 nesting season, unusual rates of deformity and death in embryos and hatchlings of wild aquatic birds (up to 64% of eared grebe and American coot nests) occurred at the refuge and were attributed to selenium toxicosis. Features necessary for contamination to have taken place included geologic setting, climate, soil type, availability of imported irrigation water, type of irrigation, and the unique chemical properties of selenium. The mechanisms of biogeochemical cycling raise questions about other ecosystems and human exposure.

California↗

A comparative analysis of OpenET for evaluating evapotranspiration in California almond orchards

The almond industry in California faces water management challenges that are being exacerbated by droughts, climate change, and groundwater sustainability legislation. The Tree-crop Remote sensing of Evapotranspiration eXperiment (T-REX) aims to explore opportunities to improve precision irrigation management for woody perennial cropping systems. Almond orchards in the California Central Valley were equipped with eddy covariance flux measurements to evaluate satellite remote sensing-based evapotranspiration (RSET) models. OpenET provides high-resolution (30-m spatial and daily temporal) RSET data, synthesizing decades of research for practical water management. This study provides an evaluation of OpenET performance at six almond sites covering a large range in soils, age, and variety. It also compares OpenET ensemble evapotranspiration (ET) data with applied irrigation and precipitation records over an additional 148 almond orchards located in the Central Valley of California. Results show OpenET models, including the ensemble ET value, produced reasonable and actionable ET values, with overall coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and mean absolute error values of 0.73- and 0.95-mm d −1 at the daily time step, respectively. However, given the temporal sampling of Landsat (8-day revisit) and the interpolation methods used, the assessed ET models had difficulty in capturing short-term variability in almond ET; for example, the rapid decline in measured ET observed as a response to lack of irrigation preceding and during almond harvest. The study also drew attention to the spatial complexity in scenarios where irrigated orchards are surrounded by hot/dry areas, causing discrepancies between measured and modeled ET values. In comparison with irrigation records, OpenET ensemble ET was capable of quantifying water input (applied irrigation + precipitation) in almond orchards to within 13 % when evaluating monthly data. Initial results presented here reinforce the idea that RSET models, such as in OpenET, are powerful tools, yet their application requires nuanced understanding and careful consideration of local conditions.

California↗

Helium-carbon systematics of groundwaters in the Lassen Peak Region

Carbon dioxide emissions from active subaerial volcanoes represent 20–50% of the annual global volcanic CO 2 flux (Barry et al., 2014). Passive degassing of carbon from the flanks of volcanoes, and the associated accumulation of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) within nearby groundwater, also represents a potentially important, yet poorly constrained flux of carbon to the surface (Werner et al., 2019). Here we investigate sources and sinks of DIC in groundwaters in the Lassen Peak region of California. Specifically, we report and interpret the relative abundance and isotopic composition of helium ( 3 He, 4 He) and carbon ( 12 C, 13 C, 14 C) in 37 groundwater samples, from 24 distinct wells, collected between 20 and 60 km from Lassen Peak. Measured groundwater samples have air-corrected 3 He/ 4 He values between 0.19 and 7.44 R A (where R A = air 3 He/ 4 He = 1.39 × 10 −6 ), all in excess of the radiogenic production value (~0.05 R A ), indicating pervasive mantle-derived helium additions to the groundwater system in the Lassen Peak region. Stable carbon isotope ratios of DIC (δ 13 C) vary between −12.6 and − 27.7‰ (vs. VPDB). Measured groundwater DIC/ 3 He values fall in the range of 2.2 × 10 10 to 1.1 × 10 12 . Using helium and carbon isotope data, we explore several conceptual models to estimate surface carbon contributions and to differentiate between DIC derived from soil CO 2 versus DIC derived from external (slab and mantle) carbon sources. Specifically, if we use 14 C to identify soil-derived DIC (assuming decadal-to-centennial groundwater ages and a soil CO 2 14 C activity equal to that of the atmosphere), we calculate that a hypothetical external carbon source would have an apparent δ 13 C signature between −10.3 and − 59.3‰ (vs. Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite (VPDB)) and an apparent C/ 3 He between 7.0 × 10 9 and 1.0 × 10 12 . These apparent δ 13 C and C/ 3 He values are substantially isotopically lighter than and greater than canonical MORB values, respectively. We suggest that >95% of any external (non-soil-derived) DIC in groundwater must thus be non-mantle in origin (i.e., slab derived or assimilated organic carbon). We further investigate possible sources of external DIC to groundwater using two idealized conceptual approaches: a pure (unfractionated) source mixing model (after Sano and Marty, 1995) and a scenario that invokes fractionation due to calcite precipitation. Because the former model requires carbon contributions from an organic source component with unrealistically low δ 13 C (~ − 60‰), we suggest that the second scenario is more plausible. Importantly, however, we caution that all conceptual models are dependent on assumptions about initial 14 C activity. Thus, we cannot rule out the possibility that the true fraction of non-surface-derived DIC in these samples is lower or negligible, despite the pervasive mantle-derived He isotope signatures throughout the region. Following the 14 C approach to deconvolving sources of DIC, we determine that the maximum passive carbon flux could be up to ~2.2 × 10 6 kg/yr, which is lower than previous magmatic carbon flux estimates from the Lassen region (Rose and Davisson, 1996). We find that the passive dissolved carbon flux could represent a maximum of ~4–18% of the total Lassen geothermal CO 2 degassing flux (estimated to be ~3.5 × 10 7 kg/yr Rose and Davisson, 1996; Gerlach et al., 2008), which is still more than an order of magnitude smaller than soil gas CO 2 flux estimates (7.3–11 × 10 7 kg/yr) for nearby volcanoes (Sorey et al., 1998; Gerlach et al., 1999; Evans et al., 2002; Werner et al., 2014 ). We conclude that passive dissolved carbon fluxes should be combined with geothermal fluxes and soil gas fluxes to obtain a complete picture of volcanic carbon emissions globally. Our approach highlights the utility of measuring helium isotopes in concert with the full suite of noble gas abundances, tritium, δ 13 C and 14 C, which when interpreted together can be used to better elucidate the various sources of DIC in groundwater.

California↗

Abundance and distribution of selected elements in soils, stream sediments, and selected forage plants from desert tortoise habitats in the Mojave and Colorado deserts, USA

A baseline and background chemical survey was conducted in southeastern California, USA, to identify potential sources of toxicants in natural and anthropogenically-altered habitats of the threatened desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii). Soil, stream sediment, and plant samples were collected from six tortoise habitat study areas in the Mojave and Colorado deserts and analysed for up to 66 different elements. The chemical analyses provided new information on the abundances and distributions of selected elements in this region. Soil, stream-sediment, and plant analyses showed distinct variations in bulk chemistries from locality to locality. Variations were, in general, consistent with the many types of exposed rock units in the region, their highly variable bulk mineralogies, and chemical contents. Of elements in soils that might have been toxic to tortoises, only As seemed to be anomalous region-wide. Some soil and plant anomalies were clearly anthropogenic. In the Rand and Atolia mining districts, soil anomalies for As, Au, Cd, Hg, Sb, and(or) W and plant anomalies for As, Sb, and(or) W extend as far as ???15 km outward from the present area of mining; soils containing anomalous Hg were found at least 6 km away from old piles of tailings. The anomalous concentrations of As and Hg may have been the source of elevated levels of these elements found in ill tortoises from the region. In the Goldstone mining district, soil anomalies extended several km from the mining area. These areas probably represented anthropogenic surface contamination of dust redistributed by wind, vehicles, and rainfall. One of two study areas transected by a paved road (Chemehuevi Valley) showed weakly elevated levels of Pb, which extended as far as ???22 m from the pavement edge and were probably related to vehicle exhaust. No soil or plant samples from historically used military areas (Goldstone, Goffs, Chemehuevi Valley, Chuckwalla Bench) contained anomalous concentrations of the elements As, Cu, Cr, Fe, Pb, or Zn that could be ascribed to military maneuvers, vehicles, or ordnance. For future studies, the distribution and abundance of elements in the tortoise forage plants need to be evaluated for the respective roles of dust and systemic uptake. Additional chemical data from tortoise necropsies and nutritional studies are needed to determine the effects of potentially toxic elements in tortoise habitats on their health. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

Seasonal movement of the Slumgullion landslide determined from global positioning system surveys and field instrumentation, July 1998-March 2002

Measurements of landslide movement made by global positioning system surveys and extensometers over a 3.5-year period show that the Slumgullion landslide in the San Juan Mountains of southwest Colorado moved throughout the monitoring period, but that daily velocities varied on a seasonal basis. Landslide velocities peaked in the early spring and summer in response to snowmelt and summer thunderstorms, respectively. Velocities were slowest in mid-winter when air and soil temperatures were coldest and precipitation was generally low and/or in the form of snow with a low water content. We hypothesize that the seasonal variability in velocities is due to ground-water levels and corresponding pore pressures that decrease when surface water is unavailable or cannot infiltrate frozen landslide material, and increase when surface water from melting snow or rainfall infiltrates unfrozen landslide material. We also suggest that patches of bouldery debris and fractures (created by continuous movement of the landslide) are conduits through which surface water can infiltrate, regardless of the frozen or unfrozen state of the landslide matrix material. Therefore, the availability of surface water is more important than landslide temperature in controlling the rate of landslide movement. This hypothesis is supported by field instrumentation data that show (1) landslide velocities coinciding with precipitation amounts regardless of the depth of freezing of landslide material, (2) spring and annual landslide velocities that were greatest when the depth of freezing was also the greatest, and (3) a rapid (several weeks or less) velocity and pore pressure response to rainfall. The persistent, but seasonally variable movement of the landslide, fits the bathtub model for landslide movement described by Baum and Reid [Baum, R.L., Reid, M.E., 2000. Ground water isolation by low-permeability clays in landslide shear zones. In: Bromhead, E.N., Dixon, N., Ibsen, M.-L. (Eds.), Landslides in Research, Theory and Practice. Proc. 8th Int. Symp. on Landslides, Cardiff, Wales, vol. 1, 139-144]. In their model, the landslide is isolated both mechanically and hydrologically from adjacent materials by low permeability clays. These clays cause the landslide to retain water. Our data support this model by suggesting that pore pressures at the basal landslide surface are always adequate to maintain landslide movement and that any infiltration of water at the surface of the landslide is adequate to rapidly increase landslide velocity. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Engineering Geology↗

Application of a rule-based model to estimate mercury exchange for three background biomes in the continental United States

Ecosystems that have low mercury (Hg) concentrations (i.e., not enriched or impactedbygeologic or anthropogenic processes) cover most of the terrestrial surface area of the earth yet their role as a net source or sink for atmospheric Hg is uncertain. Here we use empirical data to develop a rule-based model implemented within a geographic information system framework to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of Hg flux for semiarid deserts, grasslands, and deciduous forests representing 45% of the continental United States. This exercise provides an indication of whether these ecosystems are a net source or sink for atmospheric Hg as well as a basis for recommendation of data to collect in future field sampling campaigns. Results indicated that soil alone was a small net source of atmospheric Hg and that emitted Hg could be accounted for based on Hg input by wet deposition. When foliar assimilation and wet deposition are added to the area estimate of soil Hg flux these biomes are a sink for atmospheric Hg. ?? 2009 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Characteristics, distribution, origin, and significance of opaline silica observed by the Spirit rover in Gusev crater, Mars

The presence of outcrops and soil (regolith) rich in opaline silica (∼65–92 wt % SiO 2 ) in association with volcanic materials adjacent to the “Home Plate” feature in Gusev crater is evidence for hydrothermal conditions. The Spirit rover has supplied a diverse set of observations that are used here to better understand the formation of silica and the activity, abundance, and fate of water in the first hydrothermal system to be explored in situ on Mars. We apply spectral, chemical, morphological, textural, and stratigraphic observations to assess whether the silica was produced by acid sulfate leaching of precursor rocks, by precipitation from silica‐rich solutions, or by some combination. The apparent lack of S enrichment and the relatively low oxidation state of the Home Plate silica‐rich materials appear inconsistent with the originally proposed Hawaiian analog for fumarolic acid sulfate leaching. The stratiform distribution of the silica‐rich outcrops and their porous and brecciated microtextures are consistent with sinter produced by silica precipitation. There is no evidence for crystalline quartz phases among the silica occurrences, an indication of the lack of diagenetic maturation following the production of the amorphous opaline phase.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Digital data used to relate nutrient inputs to water quality in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Digital data sets were compiled by the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) and used as input for a collection of Spatially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes for the Chesapeake Bay region. These regressions relate streamwater loads to nutrient sources and the factors that affect the transport of these nutrients throughout the watershed. A digital segmented network based on watershed boundaries serves as the primary foundation for spatially referencing total nitrogen and total phosphorus source and land-surface characteristic data sets within a Geographic Information System. Digital data sets of atmospheric wet deposition of nitrate, point-source discharge locations, land cover, and agricultural sources such as fertilizer and manure were created and compiled from numerous sources and represent nitrogen and phosphorus inputs. Some land-surface characteristics representing factors that affect the transport of nutrients include land use, land cover, average annual precipitation and temperature, slope, and soil permeability. Nutrient input and land-surface characteristic data sets merged with the segmented watershed network provide the spatial detail by watershed segment required by the models. Nutrient stream loads were estimated for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, nitrate/nitrite, amonium, phosphate, and total suspended soilds at as many as 109 sites within the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The total nitrogen and total phosphorus load estimates are the dependent variables for the regressions and were used for model calibration. Other nutrient-load estimates may be used for calibration in future applications of the models.

Open-File Report↗

Waterlogging in an alluvial aquifer near Lake Minnequa, Pueblo, Colorado

The Lake Minnequa area, located immediately south of the Arkansas River near Pueblo, Colo., is mantled with as much as 46 feet (14 meters) of alluvium covering bedrock of Pierre Shale and Niobrara Formation. Surface water enters the area by the Minnequa Canal and the St. Charles Flood Ditch. The water is stored in Lake Minnequa and other reservoirs. Seepage from St. Charles Reservoirs No. 2 and No. 3 is the major source of water to the alluvial aquifer. The depth of the water table ranges from 0 to 40 feet (0 to 12.2 meters). An 0.5-square-mile (1.3-square-kilometer) area immediately south of Lake Minnequa has a water table less than 6 feet (1.8 meters) below land surface. Lake Minnequa is the principal cause of the shallow water table and resulting waterlogged soil. The bedrock hill east of Lake Minnequa and ground-water flow also contribute to the problem. To eliminate the waterlogging problem, the water table would have to be at least 6 feet (1.8 meters) below land surface. Possible alternatives for eliminating the problem include lowering the water level in Lake Minnequa, placing a network of dewatering wells, or constructing a drainage system in the waterlogged area. (Woodard-USGS)

Colorado↗

Hydrology of the Wibaux-Beach lignite deposit area, eastern Montana and western North Dakota

The Paleocene Harmon lignite, the principal commercial bed of the Wihaux-Beach deposit, underlies at least 150 square miles along the Montana-North Dakota border. An estimated 1 billion tons of strippable reserves underlies about 50 square miles. The Harmon lignite bed also is the most consistently occurring shallow aquifer in the area. This study was conducted to determine possible impacts of surface mining on the area's water resources. Two aquifer systems, the lower Tongue River and the upper Ludlow, were identified within about 300 feet below the Harmon lignite aquifer, but none were identified within the overlying 350 feet. The aquifers (systems) are separated by varying thicknesses of interbedded clay and silt. The Harmon lignite aquifer extends uninterrupted for several miles eastward (down dip) from the outcrop. It is from 3 to 34 feet thick and from zero to 350 feet deep. The top of the lower Tongue River aquifer system is from 0 to 115 feet below the Harmon lignite and the system is 13 to 98 feet thick. The upper Ludlow aquifer system is 128 to 214 feet below the Harmon lignite and is 5 to 84 feet thick. Both the lower Tongue River and upper Ludlow aquifer systems consist of discontinuous, vertically stacked, sinuous sand bodies deposited as channel fill in meandering and braided streams. The probability of encountering a sand bed within the aquifer systems at any one location in the study area is about 60 percent for the lower Tongue River aquifer system and 80 percent for the upper Ludlow aquifer system. Water in each aquifer flows toward the northeast and occurs under confined conditions, except in the Harmon lignite aquifer near its outcrop. Recharge occurs directly by precipitation at the outcrops and by downward leakage elsewhere. The major discharge from each aquifer is by downward leakage, although the Harmon lignite aquifer discharges less than 0.20 cubic foot per second to surface drainages within the study area. Differences in chemical quality of water among the three aquifers are subtle, but significant. The mean dissolved-solids concentrations are: Harmon lignite aquifer, 1,930 milligrams per liter; lower Tongue River aquifer system, 1,810 milligrams per liter; and upper Ludlow aquifer system, 1,550 milligrams per liter. Alkalinity, calcium, and magnesium concentrations decrease with aquifer depth. The majority of the samples were a sodium sulfate-bicarbonate type. The median pH values, from the uppermost to the lowermost aquifer, were 8.1, 8.3, and 8.5. The chemical quality of water in the Harmon lignite aquifer near the outcrop is affected by reactions in the aerated soil zone and unsaturated parts of the aquifer. Where the outcrop is heavily clinkered, recharge waters reach the aquifer rapidly and have little opportunity for solute uptake in the unsaturated zone. In nonclinkered areas, recharge waters slowly percolate through chemically active soil and unsaturated parts of the aquifer. The resulting water commonly contains 2,500 to 5,000 milligrams per liter of dissolved solids, is a calcium-magnesium sulfate type, and has a pH of less than 7.0. The impacts of mining on streamflow and stream water quality should be manageable through the effective use of earth structures for routing and impoundment of runoff water. Mining-induced potentiometric declines in the Harmon lignite aquifer probably will be several feet up to 2 or 3 miles from the mine. Mining impacts on other aquifers will be minor.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Simulation of the Regional Ground-Water-Flow System and Ground-Water/Surface-Water Interaction in the Rock River Basin, Wisconsin

A regional, two-dimensional, areal ground-water-flow model was developed to simulate the ground-water-flow system and ground-water/surface-water interaction in the Rock River Basin. The model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Rock River Coalition. The objectives of the regional model were to improve understanding of the ground-water-flow system and to develop a tool suitable for evaluating the effects of potential regional water-management programs. The computer code GFLOW was used because of the ease with which the model can simulate ground-water/surface-water interactions, provide a framework for simulating regional ground-water-flow systems, and be refined in a stepwise fashion to incorporate new data and simulate ground-water-flow patterns at multiple scales. The ground-water-flow model described in this report simulates the major hydrogeologic features of the modeled area, including bedrock and surficial aquifers, ground-water/surface-water interactions, and ground-water withdrawals from high-capacity wells. The steady-state model treats the ground-water-flow system as a single layer with hydraulic conductivity and base elevation zones that reflect the distribution of lithologic groups above the Precambrian bedrock and a regionally significant confining unit, the Maquoketa Formation. In the eastern part of the Basin where the shale-rich Maquoketa Formation is present, deep ground-water flow in the sandstone aquifer below the Maquoketa Formation was not simulated directly, but flow into this aquifer was incorporated into the GFLOW model from previous work in southeastern Wisconsin. Recharge was constrained primarily by stream base-flow estimates and was applied uniformly within zones guided by regional infiltration estimates for soils. The model includes average ground-water withdrawals from 1997 to 2006 for municipal wells and from 1997 to 2005 for high-capacity irrigation, industrial, and commercial wells. In addition, the model routes tributary base flow through the river network to the Rock River. The parameter-estimation code PEST was linked to the GFLOW model to select the combination of parameter values best able to match more than 8,000 water-level measurements and base-flow estimates at 9 streamgages. Results from the calibrated GFLOW model show simulated (1) ground-water-flow directions, (2) ground-water/surface-water interactions, as depicted in a map of gaining and losing river and lake sections, (3) ground-water contributing areas for selected tributary rivers, and (4) areas of relatively local ground water captured by rivers. Ground-water flow patterns are controlled primarily by river geometries, with most river sections gaining water from the ground-water-flow system; losing sections are most common on the downgradient shore of lakes and reservoirs or near major pumping centers. Ground-water contributing areas to tributary rivers generally coincide with surface watersheds; however the locations of ground-water divides are controlled by the water table, whereas surface-water divides are controlled by surface topography. Finally, areas of relatively local ground water captured by rivers generally extend upgradient from rivers but are modified by the regional flow pattern, such that these areas tend to shift toward regional ground-water divides for relatively small rivers. It is important to recognize the limitations of this regional-scale model. Heterogeneities in subsurface properties and in recharge rates are considered only at a very broad scale (miles to tens of miles). No account is taken of vertical variations in properties or pumping rates, and no provision is made to account for stacked ground-water-flow systems that have different flow patterns at different depths. Small-scale flow systems (hundreds to thousands of feet) associated with minor water bodies are not considered; as a result, the model is not currently designed for simulating site-specifi

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO 2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Montana↗

Vulnerability of recently recharged groundwater in principal aquifers of the United States to nitrate contamination

Recently recharged water (defined here as <60 years old) is generally the most vulnerable part of a groundwater resource to nonpoint-source nitrate contamination. Understanding at the appropriate scale the interactions of natural and anthropogenic controlling factors that influence nitrate occurrence in recently recharged groundwater is critical to support best management and policy decisions that are often made at the aquifer to subaquifer scale. New logistic regression models were developed using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program and National Water Information System for 17 principal aquifers of the U.S. to identify important source, transport, and attenuation factors that control nonpoint source nitrate concentrations greater than relative background levels in recently recharged groundwater and were used to predict the probability of detecting elevated nitrate in areas beyond the sampling network. Results indicate that dissolved oxygen, crops and irrigated cropland, fertilizer application, seasonally high water table, and soil properties that affect infiltration and denitrification are among the most important factors in predicting elevated nitrate concentrations. Important differences in controlling factors and spatial predictions were identified in the principal aquifer and national-scale models and support the conclusion that similar spatial scales are needed between informed groundwater management and model development.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Sensitivity of a high-elevation Rocky Mountain watershed to altered climate and CO2

We explored the hydrologic and ecological responses of a headwater mountain catchment, Loch Vale watershed, to climate change and doubling of atmospheric CO 2 scenarios using the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). A slight (2°C) cooling, comparable to conditions observed over the past 40 years, led to greater snowpack and slightly less runoff, evaporation, transpiration, and plant productivity. An increase of 2°C yielded the opposite response, but model output for an increase of 4°C showed dramatic changes in timing of hydrologic responses. The snowpack was reduced by 50%, and runoff and soil water increased and occurred 4–5 weeks earlier with 4°C warming. Alpine tundra photosynthetic rates responded more to warmer and wetter conditions than subalpine forest, but subalpine forest showed a greater response to doubling of atmospheric CO 2 than tundra. Even though water use efficiency increased with the double CO 2 scenario, this had little effect on basin-wide runoff because the catchment is largely unvegetated. Changes in winter and spring climate conditions were more important to hydrologic and vegetation dynamics than changes that occurred during summer.

Water Resources Research↗

Impact of land use and land cover change on the water balance of a large agricultural watershed: Historical effects and future directions

Over the last century, land use and land cover (LULC) in the United States Corn Belt region shifted from mixed perennial and annual cropping systems to primarily annual crops. Historical LULC change impacted the annual water balance in many Midwestern basins by decreasing annual evapotranspiration (ET) and increasing streamflow and base flow. Recent expansion of the biofuel industry may lead to future LULC changes from increasing corn acreage and potential conversion of the industry to cellulosic bioenergy crops of warm or cool season grasses. In this paper, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate potential impacts from future LULC change on the annual and seasonal water balance of the Raccoon River watershed in west‐central Iowa. Three primary scenarios for LULC change and three scenario variants were evaluated, including an expansion of corn acreage in the watershed and two scenarios involving expansion of land using warm season and cool season grasses for ethanol biofuel. Modeling results were consistent with historical observations. Increased corn production will decrease annual ET and increase water yield and losses of nitrate, phosphorus, and sediment, whereas increasing perennialization will increase ET and decrease water yield and loss of nonpoint source pollutants. However, widespread tile drainage that exists today may limit the extent to which a mixed perennial‐annual land cover would ever resemble pre‐1940s hydrologic conditions. Study results indicate that future LULC change will affect the water balance of the watershed, with consequences largely dependent on the future LULC trajectory.

Water Resources Research↗

The impact of runoff generation mechanisms on the location of critical source areas

Identifying phosphorus (P) source areas and transport pathways is a key step in decreasing P loading to natural water systems. This study compared the effects of two modeled runoff generation processes - saturation excess and infiltration excess - on total phosphorus (TP) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations in 10 catchment streams of a Catskill mountain watershed in southeastern New York. The spatial distribution of runoff from forested land and agricultural land was generated for both runoff processes; results of both distributions were consistent with Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) theory. These spatial runoff distributions were then used to simulate stream concentrations of TP and SRP through a simple equation derived from an observed relation between P concentration and land use; empirical results indicate that TP and SRP concentrations increased with increasing percentage of agricultural land. Simulated TP and SRP stream concentrations predicted for the 10 catchments were strongly affected by the assumed runoff mechanism. The modeled TP and SRP concentrations produced by saturation excess distribution averaged 31 percent higher and 42 percent higher, respectively, than those produced by the infiltration excess distribution. Misrepresenting the primary runoff mechanism could not only produce erroneous concentrations, it could fail to correctly locate critical source areas for implementation of best management practices. Thus, identification of the primary runoff mechanism is critical in selection of appropriate models in the mitigation of nonpoint source pollution. Correct representation of runoff processes is also critical in the future development of biogeochemical transport models, especially those that address nutrient fluxes.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

Detailed study of selenium in soil, water, bottom sediment, and biota in the Sun River Irrigation Project, Freezout Lake Wildlife Management Area, and Benton Lake National Wildlife Refuge, west-central Montana, 1990-92

Selenium and other constituents are adversely affecting water quality and creating a potential hazard to wildlife in several areas of the Sun River Irrigation Project, Freezout Lake Wildlife Management Area, and Benton Lake National Wildlife Refuge in west-central Montana. Selenium derived from Cretaceous shale and Tertiary and Quaternary deposits containing shale detritus is transported in the oxic shallow ground-water systems. At Freezout Lake Wildlife Management Area, drainage from irrigated glacial deposits is the primary source of selenium; drainage from non-irrigated farmland is a significant source locally. Benton Lake generally receives more selenium from natural runoff from its non-irrigated basin than from the trans-basin diversion of irrigation return flow. Selenium has accumulated in aquatic plants and invertebrates, fish, and water birds, particularly in wetlands that receive the largest selenium loads. Although selenium residues in biological tissue from some wetland units exceeded biological risk levels, water-bird reproduction generally has not been impaired. The highest selenium residues in biota commonly occurred in samples from Priest Butte Lakes, which also had the highest selenium concentration in wetland water. Selenium concentrations in all invertebrate samples from Priest Butte Lakes and the south end of Freezeout Lake exceeded the critical dietary threshold for water birds. Selenium delivered to wetlands accumulates in bottom sediment, predominantly in near-shore areas. Potential impacts to water quality, and presumably biota, may be greatest near the mouths of inflows. Most selenium delivered to wetlands will continue to accumulate in bottom sediment and biota.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa

In eastern Africa droughts can cause crop failure and lead to food insecurity. With increasing temperatures, there is an a priori assumption that droughts are becoming more severe. However, the link between droughts and climate change is not sufficiently understood. Here we investigate trends in long-term agricultural drought and the influence of increasing temperatures and precipitation deficits. Using a combination of models and observational datasets, we studied trends, spanning the period from 1900 (to approximate pre-industrial conditions) to 2018, for six regions in eastern Africa in four drought-related annually averaged variables: soil moisture, precipitation, temperature, and evaporative demand ( E 0 ). In standardized soil moisture data, we found no discernible trends. The strongest influence on soil moisture variability was from precipitation, especially in the drier or water-limited study regions; temperature and E 0 did not demonstrate strong relations to soil moisture. However, the error margins on precipitation trend estimates are large and no clear trend is evident, whereas significant positive trends were observed in local temperatures. The trends in E 0 are predominantly positive, but we do not find strong relations between E 0 and soil moisture trends. Nevertheless, the E 0 trend results can still be of interest for irrigation purposes because it is E 0 that determines the maximum evaporation rate. We conclude that until now the impact of increasing local temperatures on agricultural drought in eastern Africa is limited and we recommend that any soil moisture analysis be supplemented by an analysis of precipitation deficit.

Earth Systems Science Dynamics↗