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At least 1,171 records · Page 65Linked to original sources

Modular compositional learning improves 1D hydrodynamic lake model performance by merging process-based modeling with deep learning

Hybrid Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning (KGML) models, which are deep learning models that utilize scientific theory and process-based model simulations, have shown improved performance over their process-based counterparts for the simulation of water temperature and hydrodynamics. We highlight the modular compositional learning (MCL) methodology as a novel design choice for the development of hybrid KGML models in which the model is decomposed into modular sub-components that can be process-based models and/or deep learning models. We develop a hybrid MCL model that integrates a deep learning model into a modularized, process-based model. To achieve this, we first train individual deep learning models with the output of the process-based models. In a second step, we fine-tune one deep learning model with observed field data. In this study, we replaced process-based calculations of vertical diffusive transport with deep learning. Finally, this fine-tuned deep learning model is integrated into the process-based model, creating the hybrid MCL model with improved overall projections for water temperature dynamics compared to the original process-based model. We further compare the performance of the hybrid MCL model with the process-based model and two alternative deep learning models and highlight how the hybrid MCL model has the best performance for projecting water temperature, Schmidt stability, buoyancy frequency, and depths of different isotherms. Modular compositional learning can be applied to existing modularized, process-based model structures to make the projections more robust and improve model performance by letting deep learning estimate uncertain process calculations.

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems↗

Wrinkle-like slip pulse on a fault between different materials

Pulses of slip velocity can propagate on a planar interface governed by a constant coefficient of friction, where the interface separates different elastic materials. Such pulses have been found in two-dimensional plane strain finite difference calculations of slip on a fault between elastic media with wave speeds differing by 20%. The self-sustaining propagation of the slip pulse arises from interaction between normal and tangential deformation that exists only with a material contrast. These calculations confirm the prediction of Weertman [1980] that a dislocation propagating steadily along a material interface has a tensile change of normal traction with the same pulse shape as slip velocity. The self-sustaining pulse is associated with a rapid transition from a head wave traveling along the interface with the S wave speed of the faster material, to an opposite polarity body wave traveling with the slower S speed. Slip occurs during the reversal of normal particle velocity. The pulse can propagate in a region with constant coefficient of friction and an initial stress state below the frictional criterion. Propagation occurs in only one direction, the direction of slip in the more compliant medium, with rupture velocity near the slower S wave speed. Displacement is larger in the softer medium, which is displaced away from the fault during the passage of the slip pulse. Motion is analogous to a propagating wrinkle in a carpet. The amplitude of slip remains approximately constant during propagation, but the pulse width decreases and the amplitudes of slip velocity and stress change increase. The tensile change of normal traction increases until absolute normal traction reaches zero. The pulse can be generated as a secondary effect of a drop of shear stress in an asperity. The pulse shape is unstable, and the initial slip pulse can change during propagation into a collection of sharper pulses. Such a pulse enables slip to occur with little loss of energy to friction, while at the same time increasing irregularity of stress and slip at the source.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Fracture characterization by means of attenuation and generation of tube waves in fractured crystalline rock at Mirror Lake, New Hampshire

Results are presented from experiments carried out in conjunction with the U. S. Geological Survey at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest near Mirror Lake, New Hampshire. The study focuses on our ability to obtain orientation and transmissivity estimates of naturally occurring fractures. The collected data set includes a four-offset hydrophone vertical seismic profile, full waveform acoustic logs at 5, 15, and 34 kHz, borehole televiewer, temperature, resistivity, and self-potential logs, and borehole-to-borehole pump test data. Borehole televiewer and other geophysical logs indicate that permeable fractures intersect the Mirror Lake boreholes at numerous depths, but less than half of these fractures appear to have significant permeability beyond the annulus of drilling disturbance on the basis of acoustic waveform log analysis. The vertical seismic profiling (VSP) data indicate a single major permeable fracture near a depth of 44 m, corresponding to one of the most permeable fractures identified in the acoustic waveform log analysis. VSP data also indicate a somewhat less permeable fracture at 220 m and possible fractures at depths of 103 and 135 m; all correspond to major permeable fractures in the acoustic waveform data set. Pump test data confirm the presence of a hydraulic connection between the Mirror Lake boreholes through a shallow dipping zone of permeability at 44 m in depth. Effective fracture apertures calculated from modeled transmissivities correspond to those estimated for the largest fractures indicated on acoustic waveform logs but are over an order of magnitude larger than effective apertures calculated from tube waves in the VSP data set. This discrepancy is attributed to the effect of fracture stiffness. A new model is presented to account for the mechanical strength of asperities in resisting fracture closure during the passage of seismic waves during the generation of VSPs.

New Hampshire↗

Seismic Station Installation Orientation Errors at ANSS and IRIS/USGS Stations

Many seismological studies depend on the published orientations of sensitive axes of seismic instruments relative to north (e.g., Li et al., 2011). For example, studies of the anisotropic structure of the Earth’s mantle through SKS‐splitting measurements (Long et al., 2009), constraints on core–mantle electromagnetic coupling from torsional normal‐mode measurements (Dumberry and Mound, 2008), and models of three‐dimensional (3D) velocity variations from surface waves (Ekström et al., 1997) rely on accurate sensor orientation. Unfortunately, numerous results indicate that this critical parameter is often subject to significant error (Laske, 1995; Laske and Masters, 1996; Yoshizawa et al., 1999; Schulte‐Pelkum et al., 2001; Larson and Ekström, 2002). For the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS; ANSS Technical Integration Committee, 2002), the Global Seismographic Network (GSN; Butler et al., 2004), and many other networks, sensor orientation is typically determined by a field engineer during installation. Successful emplacement of a seismic instrument requires identifying true north, transferring a reference line, and measuring the orientation of the instrument relative to the reference line. Such an exercise is simple in theory, but there are many complications in practice. There are four commonly used methods for determining true north at the ANSS and GSN stations operated by the USGS Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL), including gyroscopic, astronomical, Global Positioning System (GPS), and magnetic field techniques. A particular method is selected based on site conditions (above ground, below ground, availability of astronomical observations, and so on) and in the case of gyroscopic methods, export restrictions. Once a north line has been determined, it must be translated to the sensor location. For installations in mines or deep vaults, this step can include tracking angles through the one or more turns in the access tunnel leading to the vault (e.g., GSN station WCI in Wyandotte Cave, Indiana). Finally, the third source of error comes from the ability of field engineers to orient the sensor relative to the reference line. In order to quantify bounds on the errors in each step in the orientation process, we conducted a series of tests at the ASL using twelve GSN and ANSS field engineers. The results from this exercise allow us to estimate upper bounds on the precision of our ability to orient instruments, as well as identify the sources of error in the procedures. We are also able to identify systematic bias of various true‐north‐finding methods relative to one another. Although we are unable to estimate the absolute accuracy of our orientation measurements due to our inability to identify true north without some error, the agreement between independent methods for finding true north provides confidence in the different approaches, assuming no systematic bias. Finally, our study neglects orientation errors that are beyond the control of the field engineer during a station visit. These additional errors can arise from deviations in the sensitive axes of the instruments relative to the case markings, processing errors (Holcomb, 2002) when comparing horizontal orientations relative to other sensors (e.g., borehole installations), and deviations of the sensitive axes of instruments from true orthogonality (e.g., instruments with separate modules such as the Streckeisen STS‐1).

Seismological Research Letters↗

Porphyry copper assessment of western Central Asia

The U.S. Geological Survey conducted an assessment of resources associated with porphyry copper deposits in the western Central Asia countries of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan and the southern Urals of Kazakhstan and Russia as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The purpose of the study was to (1) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits; (2) compile a database of known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects; (3) where data permit, estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within those permissive tracts; and (4) provide probabilistic estimates the amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in those undiscovered deposits. Western Central Asia, a region diverse in its geologic complexity, is situated north of the Tarim and North China tectonic blocks and sandwiched between the East European and Siberian cratons. The Ural Mountains form the western margin of the region; the southern margin is formed by the high-standing ranges that make up the Tian Shan mountain range in the border regions of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and western China, where the effects of collisional tectonics are well displayed. The tectonic collage that makes up the core of western Central Asia is perhaps the geologically least understood part of the region. There is broad agreement that the early Paleozoic is made up of tectonically juxtaposed blocks that vary from Precambrian-cored microcontinents to magmatic arc and related complexes to subduction-related accretionary complexes. The rudiments of an incipient, contiguous single Kazakhstan block were formed by the end of the Silurian. In the middle to late Paleozoic, the block was unconformably superposed by two large, nested magmatic-arc belts, one Devonian, the other Carboniferous. Both magmatic-arc complexes were folded into a horseshoe-shaped, southeast-opening orocline in response to the final collisions of the various surrounding cratonic blocks with the Kazakhstan block. Additional deformation in the upper Cenozoic derived from the collision of India and China significantly redistributed fragments of the various mosaicked blocks, particularly in the central and southern parts of the western Central Asian region. Porphyry copper deposits are associated with many of the magmatic-arc fragments and belts throughout the geologically complex region, and economically important deposits are found in arc sequences of all Paleozoic Periods. The economically most productive arcs are Carboniferous. The assessment includes a discussion of the tectonic and geologic setting of porphyry copper deposits in western Central Asia (chapter 1), an application of remote sensing data for hydrothermal alteration mapping as a tool for porphyry copper assessment in the region (chapter 2), and a probabilistic assessment of undiscovered porphyry copper resources in four areas that represent Ordovician and Late Paleozoic (Carboniferous-Permian) magmatic arcs (chapter 3). The principal litho-tectonic terrane concept used to delineate permissive tracts was that of a magmatic arc that formed in the subduction boundary zone above a subducting plate. Eight permissive tracts are delineated on the basis of mapped and inferred subsurface distributions of igneous rocks assigned to magmatic arcs of specified age ranges that define areas where the occurrence of porphyry copper deposits within 1 kilometer of the Earth’s surface is possible. These tracts range in area from about 8,000 to 200,000 square kilometers and host 18 known porphyry copper deposits that contain about 54 million metric tons of copper. Available data included geologic maps, the distribution of significant porphyry copper occurrences and potentially related deposit types, the distribution of hydrothermal alteration patterns that are consistent with porphyry copper mineralization, and information on possible subsurface extensions of permissive rocks. On the basis of analyses of these data, the assessment team estimated a mean of 25 undiscovered porphyry copper deposits for the study area. Estimates of numbers of undiscovered deposits were combined with grade and tonnage models in a Monte Carlo simulation to yield a mean estimate of 95 million metric tons of copper in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits; this represents about twice the amount of identified porphyry copper resources (54 million metric tons). Detailed descriptions of each permissive tract, including the rationales for delineation and assessment, are given in appendixes, along with a geographic information system (GIS) that includes permissive tract boundaries, point locations of known porphyry copper deposits and significant occurrences, and hydrothermal alteration data based on analysis of remote sensing data.

Ural Mountains↗

Geology and natural history of the San Francisco Bay area: A field-trip guidebook

A National Association of Geoscience Teachers Far Western Section (NAGT-FWS) field conference is an ideal forum for learning about the geology and natural history of the San Francisco Bay area. We visit classic field sites, renew old friendships, and make new ones. This collection of papers includes field guides and road logs for all of the Bay-area trips held during the NAGT-FWS 2001 Fall Field Conference and supplemental chapters on other aspects of the area’s natural and human history. The trips touch on many aspects of the geology and natural hazards of the Bay area, especially urban problems associated with living on an active tectonic plate margin: earthquake faults, coastal erosion, landslides, and the utilization of land and natural resources. We hope this conference not only provides a two-day learning opportunity for conference participants but that students and educators will use this field guidebook for future teaching and research. Many thanks are due to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and San José State University (SJSU) for cohosting the conference. We are grateful to each of the field trip leaders for preparing the trips and writing the accompanying guides. We especially appreciate the many hours put in by the guidebook reviewers, Robert I. Tilling (USGS) and Paula Messina (SJSU), and to the USGS Western Publications Group for editing, layout, and web posting. Additional guidebook contributions include articles by John Galloway, Scott Starratt, Page Mosier, and Susan Toussaint. During the conference guest speakers include Robert I. Tilling (USGS Volcano Hazards Team) and Ross Stein (USGS Earthquake Hazards Team). Workshops prepared for the conference include GIS in the classroom, using USGS data by John Vogel (USGS) and Paula Messina (SJSU), and The Best of BAESI (Bay Area Earth Science Institute), a teacher training organization under the direction of Ellen Metzger (SJSU) and Richard Sedlock (SJSU). The conference provides an opportunity to showcase USGS scientific and education resources with self-guided tours of the USGS Library, the Earth Science Information Center (ESIC), the Visitor Center, and various laboratories on the USGS campus and includes a half-day participatory tour of the USGS research vessel the R/V Polaris and the USGS Marine Facility at the Port of Redwood City under the direction of Cynthia L. Brown, Francis Parchaso, and Tara Schraga. Beyond the names mentioned above, a host of USGS and SJSU staff, SJSU students, and NAGT-FWS members contributed to the preparation and orchestration of the conference. We couldn’t have done it alone. Leslie C. Gordon (USGS), Philip W. Stoffer (USGS), and Deborah Harden (SJSU) NAGT-FWS 2001 Fall Field Conference Organizers.

California↗

Comparative lahar hazard mapping at Volcan Citlaltépetl, Mexico using SRTM, ASTER and DTED-1 digital topographic data

In this study, we evaluated and compared the utility of spaceborne SRTM and ASTER DEMs with baseline DTED-1 “bald-earth” topography for mapping lahar inundation hazards from volcan Citlaltépetl, Mexico, a volcano which has had a history of producing debris flows of various extents. In particular, we tested the utility of these topographic datasets for resolving ancient valley-filling deposits exposed around the flanks of the volcano, for determining their magnitude using paleohydrologic methods and for forecasting their inundation limits in the future. We also use the three datasets as inputs to a GIS stream inundation flow model, LAHARZ, and compare the results. In general all three datasets, with spatial resolution of 90 m or better, were capable of resolving debris flow and lahar deposits at least 3 × 10 6 m 3 in volume or larger. Canopy- and slope-related height errors in the ASTER and SRTM DEMs limit their utility for measuring valley-filling cross-sectional area and deriving flow magnitude for the smallest deposits using a cross-sectional area to volume scaling equation. Height errors in the ASTER and SRTM DEMs also causes problems in resolving stream valley hydrography which controls lahar flow paths and stream valley morphology which controls lahar filling capacity. However, both of the two spaceborne DEM datasets are better than DTED-1 at resolving fine details in stream hydrography and erosional morphologies of volcaniclastics preserved in the valleys around the more humid, eastern flanks of the volcanic range. The results of LAHARZ flow inundation modeling using all three DEMs as inputs are remarkably similar and co-validate one another. For example, at Citlaltépetl all lahar simulations show that the city of Orizaba is the most vulnerable to flows similar in magnitude to, or larger than, one that occurred in 1920. Many of the other cities and towns illustrated are built higher up on terrace deposits of older debris flows, and are safe from all but the largest flows, which occur less frequently. Finally, ASTERs 60 km swath width and 8% duty cycle presents a challenge for mapping lahar inundation hazards at E–W oriented stream valleys in low-latitude areas with persistent cloud cover. However, its continued operations enhances its utility as a means for updating the continuous but one-time coverage of SRTM, and for filling voids in the SRTM dataset such as those that occur along steep-sided valleys prone to hazards from future lahars.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

Streamflow characteristics from modelled runoff time series: Importance of calibration criteria selection

Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV – Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning – model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

Tennessee↗

Quantitative measure of the variation in fault rheology due to fluid-rock interactions

We analyze friction data from two published suites of laboratory tests on granite in order to explore and quantify the effects of temperature ( T ) and pore water pressure ( P p ) on the sliding behavior of faults. Rate-stepping sliding tests were performed on laboratory faults in granite containing “gouge” (granite powder), both dry at 23° to 845°C [ Lockner et al. , 1986], and wet ( P p = 100 MPa) at 23° to 600°C [ Blanpied et al ., 1991, 1995]. Imposed slip velocities ( V ) ranged from 0.01 to 5.5 μm/s, and effective normal stresses were near 400 MPa. For dried granite at all temperatures, and wet granite below ∼300°C, the coefficient of friction (μ) shows low sensitivity to V , T , and P p . For wet granite above ∼350°, μ drops rapidly with increasing T and shows a strong, positive rate dependence and protracted strength transients following steps in V , presumably reflecting the activity of a water-aided deformation process. By inverting strength data from velocity stepping tests we determined values for parameters in three formulations of a rate- and state-dependent constitutive law. One or two state variables were used to represent slip history effects. Each velocity step yielded an independent set of values for the nominal friction level, five constitutive parameters (transient parameters a , b 1 , and b 2 and characteristic displacements D c1 and D c2 ), and the velocity dependence of steady state friction ∂μ ss /∂ ln V = a - b 1 − b 2 . Below 250°, data from dry and most wet tests are adequately modeled by using the “slip law” [ Ruina , 1983] and one state variable ( a = 0.003 to 0.018, b = 0.001 to +0.018, D c ≈ 1 to 20 μm). Dried tests above 250° can also be fitted with one state variable. In contrast, wet tests above 350° require higher direct rate dependence ( a = 0.03 to 0.12), plus a second state variable with large, negative amplitude ( b 2 = −0.03 to −0.14) and large characteristic displacement ( D c2 = 300 to >4000 μm). Thus the parameters a , b 1 , and b 2 for wet granite show a pronounced change in their temperature dependence in the range 270° to 350°C, which may reflect a change in underlying deformation mechanism. We quantify the trends in parameter values from 25° to 600°C by piecewise linear regressions, which provide a straightforward means to incorporate the full constitutive response of granite into numerical models of fault slip. The modeling results suggest that the succeptibility for unstable (stick-slip) sliding is maximized between 90° and 360°C, in agreement with laboratory observations and consistent with the depth range of earthquakes on mature faults in the continental crust.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Postearthquake relaxation evidence for laterally variable viscoelastic structure and water content in the Southern California mantle

I reexamine the lower crust and mantle relaxation following two large events in the Mojave Desert: the 1992 M 7.3 Landers and 1999 M 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquakes. Time series from continuous GPS sites out to 300 km from the ruptures are used to constrain models of postseismic relaxation. Crustal motions in the Mojave Desert region are elevated above background for several years following each event. To account for broadscale relaxation of the lower crust and mantle, the Burgers body model is employed, involving transient and steady state viscosities. Joint afterslip/postseismic relaxation modeling of the GPS time series up to one decade following the Hector Mine earthquake reveals a significant rheological contrast between a northwest trending “southwest domain” (that envelopes the San Andreas fault system and western Mojave Desert) and an adjacent “northeast domain” (that envelopes the Landers and Hector Mine rupture areas in the central Mojave Desert). The steady state viscosity of the northeast domain mantle asthenosphere is inferred to be ∼4 times greater than that of the southwest domain. This pattern is counter to that expected for regional heat flow, which is higher in the northeast domain, but it is explicable by means of a nonlinear rheology that includes dependence on both strain rate and water concentration. I infer that the southwest domain mantle has a relatively low steady state viscosity because of its high strain rate and water content. The relatively low mantle water content of the northeast domain is interpreted to result from the continual extraction of water through igneous and volcanic activity over the past ∼20 Myr.

California↗

Three-dimensional flow structure and patterns of bed shear stress in an evolving compound meander bend

Compound meander bends with multiple lobes of maximum curvature are common in actively evolving lowland rivers. Interaction among spatial patterns of mean flow, turbulence, bed morphology, bank failures and channel migration in compound bends is poorly understood. In this paper, acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) measurements of the three-dimensional (3D) flow velocities in a compound bend are examined to evaluate the influence of channel curvature and hydrologic variability on the structure of flow within the bend. Flow structure at various flow stages is related to changes in bed morphology over the study timeframe. Increases in local curvature within the upstream lobe of the bend reduce outer bank velocities at morphologically significant flows, creating a region that protects the bank from high momentum flow and high bed shear stresses. The dimensionless radius of curvature in the upstream lobe is one-third less than that of the downstream lobe, with average bank erosion rates less than half of the erosion rates for the downstream lobe. Higher bank erosion rates within the downstream lobe correspond to the shift in a core of high velocity and bed shear stresses toward the outer bank as flow moves through the two lobes. These erosion patterns provide a mechanism for continued migration of the downstream lobe in the near future. Bed material size distributions within the bend correspond to spatial patterns of bed shear stress magnitudes, indicating that bed material sorting within the bend is governed by bed shear stress. Results suggest that patterns of flow, sediment entrainment, and planform evolution in compound meander bends are more complex than in simple meander bends. Moreover, interactions among local influences on the flow, such as woody debris, local topographic steering, and locally high curvature, tend to cause compound bends to evolve toward increasing planform complexity over time rather than stable configurations.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗

Postglacial eruptive history of Laguna del Maule volcanic field and constraints on its magmatic system

The Laguna del Maule (LdM) volcanic field has produced >100 explosive and extrusive events over the past 17 ka. More than two-thirds of these have been silicic, with most being postglacial rhyolites (72–78 % SiO 2 ) concentrated near the eponymous lake (LdM), an extraordinary anomaly in the Quaternary Andes and unprecedented in this 1.5–Ma-old volcanic field as a whole. The postglacial field includes >70 separate vents distributed over ∼360 km 2 that together produced the many distinct eruptive events, of which 55 are rhyolitic (73 %−77 % SiO 2 ), 18 are rhyodacitic (68 %−72 % SiO 2 ), 4 are dacitic (63 %–66 % SiO 2 ), 26 are intermediate (54–62 % SiO 2 ), and 2 are true basalts (50 %–53 % SiO 2 ). Of these, most originated from single-vent domes, cones, or craters that erupted effusive and/or explosive products, each with relatively short lifespans. Some originated from multi-vent centers, the largest one being the Barrancas complex southeast of the lake, which has as many as 18 vents that erupted over as much as 10 kyr. The LdM basin itself is ringed by 13 separate silicic centers, many of which are also multi-vent and built over time by multiple explosive and extrusive events. These surround the lake, near the middle of which is the vent for the high-silica rhyolite Plinian eruption that produced the “ Rhyolite of Laguna del Maule ”, which was the first and largest silicic event from the postglacial field. Explosive and effusive products from all these events have been put in a time-stratigraphic framework supported by radiocarbon dating and chemical analyses to reconstruct the postglacial eruptive history. Correlations of pyroclastics to eruptive vents have provided a spatial-temporal framework that helps characterize the magmatic system beneath the LdM field. Distribution of both silicic and mafic vents support the likelihood that two separate magmatic systems produced the postglacial eruptions in the volcanic field—one in the Laguna del Maule basin and the other at the Barrancas complex—with a cluster of silicic vents at each and mafic vents situated between the two. Vent distributions, compositions of eruptive products, and temporal and spatial trends of eruptive units suggest that the abundant rhyodacitic and mafic units in the LdM basin have no common magma reservoir, but instead each had its own evolutionary trend. In contrast, there is enough affinity among some of the rhyolitic units in the Basin to imply magmatic connections and/or continuity that span both time and space, although neither geographic proximity nor temporal similarity have singular control on LdM-basin rhyolite compositions. Compositional trends through time at the Barrancas center suggest the rhyolitic eruptions at West and East Barrancas were derived from separate, zoned reservoirs that were tapped in batches, not permitting development of a large high-silica reservoir such as that beneath the LdM basin.

Laguna del Maule lake basin↗

New 40Ar/39Ar age of the Bishop Tuff from multiple sites and sediment rate calibration for the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary

Precise dating of sanidine from proximal ash flow Bishop Tuff and air fall Bishop pumice and ash, California, can be used to derive an absolute age of the Matuyama Reversed-Brunhes Normal (M-B) paleomagnetic transition, identified stratigraphically close beneath the Bishop Tuff and ash at many sites in the western United States. An average age of 758.9±1.8 ka, standard error of the mean (SEM), was obtained for individual sanidine crystals or groups of several crystals, determined from ∼70 individual analyses of sanidine separates from 11 sample groups obtained at five localities. The basal air fall pumice (757.7±1.8 ka) and overlying ash flow tuff (762.2±4.7 ka) from near the source yield essentially the same dates within errors of analysis, suggesting that the two units were emplaced close in time. A date on distal Bishop air fall ash bed at Priant, California, ∼100 km to the west of the source area, is younger, 750.1±4.3 ka, but not significantly different within analytical error (±1 standard deviation). Previous dates of the Bishop Tuff, obtained by others using conventional K-Ar and the fission track method on zircons, ranged from ∼650 ka to ∼1.0 Ma. The most recent, generally accepted date by the K-Ar method on sanidine was 738±3 ka. We infer, as others before, that many K-Ar dates on sanidine feldspar are too young owing to incomplete degassing of radiogenic Ar during fusion in the K-Ar technique and that many older K-Ar dates are too old owing to detrital or xenocrystic contamination in the larger samples that are necessary for the technique. The new dates are similar to recent 40Ar/39Ar ages of the Bishop Tuff determined on individual samples by others but are derived from a larger proximal sample population and from multiple analysis of each sample. The results provide a definitive and precise age calibration of this widespread chronostratigraphic marker in the western United States and northeastern Pacific Ocean. We calculated the age of the M-B transition at five sites, assuming constant sedimentation rates, the age of the Bishop ash bed and one or more well-dated chronostratigraphic horizons above and below the Bishop Tuff ash bed and M-B transition, and stratigraphic separations between these datum levels. The age of the M-B transition is 774.2±2.8 ka, based on the average of eight such calculations, close to other recent determinations, and similar to that determined from the astronomically tuned polarity timescale. Our approach provides an alternative and surprisingly precise method for determining the age of the M-B and other chronostratigraphic levels. The above dates, calculated using U.S. Geological Survey values of 27.92 Ma for the Taylor Creek (TC) sanidine can be recalculated to other widely used values for these monitors. For example, using recently published values of 28.34 Ma (TC) and 523.1 Ma (McLure Mountain hornblende, MMhb-1), the resulting ages are ∼774 ka for the Bishop Tuff and ash bed and ∼789 ka for the M-B transition.

California↗

Rotation of the microplates within the plate boundary in southwestern United States

I investigate the long‐term, rigid motions of the 20 microplates identified by McCaffrey (2005,https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jb003307) within the Pacific‐North America plate boundary in southwestern United States. Those motions are described by the Euler vectors ( Ω i 0 for the i th microplate) given by McCaffrey for each microplate. McCaffrey noticed that the Euler poles for those microplates were aligned along the great circle that connects the geometric center of the microplate distribution with the PACI pole, the pole of rotation of the Pacific Plate (PA) about the North American Plate (NA). To explain that alignment, Thatcher et al. (2016,https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jb0126678.0) proposed replacing each Ω i 0 by two, vertical‐axis rotations of the microplate, one Ω i R describing the trajectory (orbit) of its center of mass (CM) and the other Ω i S its rotation(spin) about that CM, where Ω i R + Ω i S = Ω i 0 . Moreover, they suggested that the orbital motion was being driven by drag from the rotating PA, which suggests that the Ω i R poles coincide with the PACI pole. Then rotation vectors Ω i R and Ω i S consistent with the given Ω i 0 can be found for 17 of the microplates; the other 3 microplates are apparently affected by Basin‐and‐Range extension as well as PA relative motion. The long‐term motion of each of the 17 microplates then can be described as an orbital rotation about the PACI pole plus spin about the CM of the microplate. The closer the microplate CM is to the PA, the more nearly its orbital rotation rate approaches the rotation rate of the PA about the PACI pole.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗

3D viscoelastic models of slip-deficit rate along the Cascadia subduction zone

Interseismic deformation in the Pacific Northwest is constrained by the horizontal crustal velocity field derived from the Global Positioning System (GPS) in addition to vertical rates derived from GPS, leveling, and tide gauge measurements. Such measurements were folded in to deformation models of fault slip rates as part of the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) update. Here I build upon one of the contributing models, the viscoelastic earthquake-cycle model of Pollitz [2022]. This model permits inclusion of effects of time-dependent viscoelastic relaxation within earthquake cycles (i.e., ‘ghost transients’) and laterally variable elastic and/or ductile material properties. I lever-age these capabilities to incorporate the Cascadia megathrust into Western U.S.-wide deformation models in which crustal fault slip rates are estimated simultaneously with slip deficit rates along the interplate boundary between the descending Juan de Fuca plate and North American plate. This effort includes construction of a margin-wide model of viscoelastic structure founded on the Slab 2.0 model and probes different models of the ductile properties of the surrounding oceanic asthenosphere, continental lower crust, and mantle asthenosphere. This results in new estimates of the distribution of slip deficit rate along the ∼ 1000 km long margin, highlights the importance of correcting for glacial-isostatic adjustment effects, and permits assessment of sensitivity of results to assumed ductile properties.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

Estimation of dynamic geologic CO2 storage resources in the Illinois Basin, including effects of brine extraction, anisotropy, and hydrogeologic heterogeneity

Since the vast majority of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage resources in the United States are in deep saline aquifers, optimizing the use of these saline storage resources could be crucial for efficient development of geologic CO 2 storage (GCS) resources and basin- or larger-scale deployment of GCS in the country. Maximum CO 2 injection rates can be enhanced by extracting brine from the CO 2 storage unit. However, disposal of the extracted brine is both a technological and economic challenge. The lowest-cost option would likely be reinjection of the extracted brine into another formation above or below the CO 2 storage unit. Therefore, it is important to estimate brine injectivity as it will constrain the potential to increase CO 2 injectivity at an injection site that has access to multiple geologic storage units where either CO 2 or brine can be injected. Using a simulation-optimization framework, coupled with a non-isothermal, multiphase CO 2 -water-salt equation-of-state module, we developed a computationally efficient method for evaluating optimization of simultaneous CO 2 injection, brine extraction, and brine (re)injection at hypothetical injection sites deployed across a geologic basin. The Illinois basin is ideal for testing our methodology because it contains multiple geologic storage units with seals in between them to isolate injection of CO 2 in one unit from interfering with the injection of either brine or CO 2 in another unit above or below it. In addition, we investigated the relative effects of variation in key geologic parameters as well as two reservoir structures (hydrogeologic heterogeneity/anisotropy and homogeneity/isotropy) on CO 2 injectivities and enhancement of CO 2 injectivity through extracting brine. Results suggest that permeability, depth, and especially thickness of the storage unit could be the most influential parameters determining CO 2 injectivity. They also suggest that only injecting CO 2 into the storage unit with the greatest injectivity, enhancing that unit’s injectivity by extracting brine, and disposing of the produced brine in other suitable units could maximize total CO 2 injectivity in limited regions of the basin. At the majority of simulated injection sites, however, we found that injecting CO 2 into all of the accessible and suitable storage units was more likely to maximize the CO 2 storage resource.

Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana↗

Applications of a broad-spectrum tool for conservation and fisheries analysis: Aquatic gap analysis

Natural resources support all of our social and economic activities, as well as our biological existence. Humans have little control over most of the physical, biological, and sociological conditions dictating the status and capacity of natural resources in any particular area. However, the most rapid and threatening influences on natural resources typically are anthropogenic overuse and degradation. In addition, living natural resources (i.e., organisms) do not respect political boundaries, but are aware of their optimal habitat and environmental conditions. Most organisms have wider spatial ranges than the jurisdictional boundaries of environmental agencies that deal with them; even within those jurisdictions, information is patchy and disconnected. Planning and projecting effects of ecological management are difficult, because many organisms, habitat conditions, and interactions are involved. Conservation and responsible resource use involves wise management and manipulation of the aspects of the environment and biological communities that can be effectively changed. Tools and data sets that provide new insights and analysis capabilities can enhance the ability of resource managers to make wise decisions and plan effective, long-term management strategies. Aquatic gap analysis has been developed to provide those benefits. Gap analysis is more than just the assessment of the match or mis-match (i.e., gaps) between habitats of ecological value and areas with an appropriate level of environmental protection (e.g., refuges, parks, preserves), as the name suggests. Rather, a Gap Analysis project is a process which leads to an organized database of georeferenced information and previously available tools to examine conservation and other ecological issues; it provides a geographic analysis platform that serves as a foundation for aquatic ecological studies. This analytical tool box allows one to conduct assessments of all habitat elements within an area of interest. Aquatic gap analysis naturally focuses on aquatic habitats. The analytical tools are largely based on specification of the species-habitat relations for the system and organism group of interest (Morrison et al. 2003; McKenna et al. 2006; Steen et al. 2006; Sowa et al. 2007). The Great Lakes Regional Aquatic Gap Analysis (GLGap) project focuses primarily on lotic habitat of the U.S. Great Lakes drainage basin and associated states and has been developed to address fish and fisheries issues. These tools are unique because they allow us to address problems at a range of scales from the region to the stream segment and include the ability to predict species specific occurrence or abundance for most of the fish species in the study area. The results and types of questions that can be addressed provide better global understanding of the ecological context within which specific natural resources fit (e.g., neighboring environments and resources, and large and small scale processes). The geographic analysis platform consists of broad and flexible geospatial tools (and associated data) with many potential applications. The objectives of this article are to provide a brief overview of GLGap methods and analysis tools, and demonstrate conservation and planning applications of those data and tools. Although there are many potential applications, we will highlight just three: (1) support for the Eastern Brook Trout Joint Venture (EBTJV), (2) Aquatic Life classification in Wisconsin, and (3) an educational tool that makes use of Google Earth (use of trade or product names does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government) and Internet accessibility.

Gap Analysis Bulletin↗

Land area change in coastal Louisiana from 1932 to 2010

Coastal Louisiana wetlands make up the seventh largest delta on Earth, contain about 37 percent of the estuarine herbaceous marshes in the conterminous United States, and support the largest commercial fishery in the lower 48 States. These wetlands are in peril because Louisiana currently undergoes about 90 percent of the total coastal wetland loss in the continental United States. Documenting and understanding the occurrence and rates of wetland loss are necessary for effective planning, protection, and restoration activities. The analyses of landscape change presented in this report use historical surveys, aerial data, and satellite data to track landscape changes. Summary data are presented for 1932-2010; trend data are presented for 1985-2010. These later data were calculated separately because of concerns over the comparability of the 1932 and 1956 datasets (which are based on survey and aerial data, respectively) with the later datasets (which are all based on satellite imagery). These analyses show that coastal Louisiana has undergone a net change in land area of about -1,883 square miles (mi 2 ) from 1932 to 2010. This net change in land area amounts to a decrease of about 25 percent of the 1932 land area. Persistent losses account for 95 percent of this land area decrease; the remainder are areas that have converted to water but have not yet exhibited the persistence necessary to be classified as "loss." Trend analyses from 1985 to 2010 show a wetland loss rate of 16.57 mi 2 per year. If this loss were to occur at a constant rate, it would equate to Louisiana losing an area the size of one football field per hour. The use of 17 datasets plus the application of consistent change criteria in this study provide opportunities to better understand the timing and causal mechanisms of wetland loss that are critical for forecasting landscape changes in the future.

Louisiana↗