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Lewis and Clark National Historical Park Elk Monitoring Program Annual Report 2010

Fiscal year 2010 was the second full year of elk monitoring protocol implementation at Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (LEWI), part of the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN) Inventory and Monitoring program. Elk monitoring at Lewis and Clark NHP includes two components. Fecal pellet surveys at a systematic sample of points in the Fort Clatsop unit are intended to give quantitative estimates of relative use by elk in that unit. Driving surveys on specified routes in and near the Fort Clatsop unit are intended to provide an index of elk viewing opportunities on those roads. Fecal pellet surveys include a fall clearing session and a late winter sampling session. Fall clearing from November 9 to November 17, 2009 included visits to 67 survey points. Late winter sampling from March 1 to March 8 2010 included repeat visits to 65 of those same points, but not to two others that had hazardous access or were under water. We detected elk fecal pellets in 30 points in the fall and at 30 points in the late winter. Three to four road surveys per month were conducted in each of the 12 months of fiscal year 2010 (i.e., October-December 2009 and January-September 2010). Data from those surveys will be entered, validated, certified, and analyzed following the acceptance of the peer-reviewed protocol and associated database. Data from FY09, FY10, and FY11 will be useful in the formal analyses of trend. Those three years of data will contribute to the preparation of a four-year analysis and report after only one more year. Quantitative estimates of relative use by elk throughout the Fort Clatsop unit will be provided in the four-year report in 2012. Those estimates will account for detection bias, which comes from an incomplete count of elk pellets that were present in the subplots at the time of survey.

Oregon↗

Geologic map of Okmok Volcano

The geologic map and description of map units presented here cover approximately 880 km2 of northeastern Umnak Island, Aleutian Islands, Alaska. This report focuses on Okmok Volcano and its eruptive products and updates the mid-20th-century geologic map of Byers (1959). Mapped deposits reflect the state of the volcano just prior to the 2008 eruption. Published information about other portions of Umnak Island geology, including Mount Recheshnoi and Mount Vsevidof, can be found in Byers (1959). The 2008 eruption and its deposits are described in Larsen and others (2009, 2013, 2015). Okmok Volcano is one of 54 historically active volcanoes in the Alaska–Aleutian volcanic arc that stretches across southern mainland Alaska and the Aleutian Islands (fig. 1; Wood and Kienle, 1990; Miller and others, 1998; Cameron and others, 2020). The highest point of the modern Okmok Caldera is along the caldera’s northern rim, 967 m in elevation, and formally named “Mount Okmok” (U.S. Board on Geographic Names, www.usgs.gov/core-science-systems/ngp/boardon-geographic-names/domestic-names). Okmok Volcano dominates the northeastern portion of Umnak Island, which is 100 km southwest of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor and 1,400 km southwest of Anchorage (figs. 1, 2). The Port of Dutch Harbor on Unalaska Island produces the highest volume of seafood for any port in the United States (see fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/fisheries-united-states-2018-report). Unalaska city and the Port of Dutch Harbor have been impacted by ash fall and drifting ash clouds from Okmok Volcano’s explosive eruptions as recently as 2008. Holocene and late Pleistocene volcanic rocks and deposits of Okmok Volcano rest upon glaciated Tertiary volcanic and sedimentary rocks (Byers, 1959). The first geologic mapping expedition to Okmok Volcano was by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) after the 1945 eruption, largely in response to concerns about volcanic hazards to U.S. military activities in the Aleutians Islands (Byers and others, 1947, 1959; Byers and Brannock, 1949; Byers, 1955, 1959, 1961). The State of Alaska conducted further mapping and geochemical studies as part of its geothermal exploration program in the 1980s (Nye, 1983; Nye and Reid, 1986; Motyka and others, 1993). Additional modern geological work focused on Okmok Volcano and the rest of Umnak Island to address the geochemistry and origin of primary Aleutian arc magmas and subduction zone mass recycling (Marsh, 1982; Brophy and Marsh, 1986; Nye and Reid, 1986; Myers and Marsh, 1987; Miller and others, 1992; Fournelle and others, 1994; Kay and Kay, 1994). In 1998, the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) began a multi-year effort to expand geophysical monitoring in the central Aleutians Islands, including at Okmok Volcano. As part of this effort, AVO geologists from the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute (UAF/GI), the Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys (DGGS), and USGS also began a renewed effort to document Okmok Volcano’s recent eruption products. The project started with reconnaissance fieldwork to document and sample products from the 1997 eruption within Okmok Caldera. This evolved into an effort to produce an updated geologic map of Okmok Volcano and gather more information about its eruptive history and hazards. Three significant eruptions occurred at Okmok Volcano in 1958, 1997, and 2008—after fieldwork had been conducted for the original 1:63,360-scale geologic map produced by Byers (1959)—resulting in new volcanic deposits not previously described. Okmok Volcano is one of the most frequently active volcanoes in the Aleutian volcanic arc. Seismic and geodetic monitoring indicate ongoing unrest at Okmok Volcano since at least 1997. Geodetic observations of inflation before and after the 1997 and 2008 eruptions indicate a nearly continuous input of new magma from a depth consistent with frequent eruptions of basalt and basaltic andesite magmas over the past 200 years (Larsen and others, 2013; Lu and others, 2000, 2003, 2005; Mann, 2002; Mann and others, 2002). To better understand the likelihood and character of future eruptions from Okmok Volcano, it is necessary to understand its past behavior, including eruptions since the first geologic map was published by Byers (1959).

Alaska↗

National assessment of shoreline change: historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest coast

Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to increase and infrastructure is threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along the open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally. In the case of the analysis of shoreline change in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), the shoreline is the interpreted boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the PNW coasts of Oregon and Washington is the seventh in a series of regionally focused reports on historical shoreline change. Previous investigations include analyses and descriptive reports of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (Morton and others, 2004), the southeastern Atlantic (Morton and Miller, 2005), the sandy shorelines (Hapke and others, 2006) and coastal cliffs (Hapke and Reid, 2007) of California, the New England and mid-Atlantic coasts (Hapke and others, 2011), and parts of the Hawaii coast (Fletcher and others, 2012). Like the earlier reports in this series, this report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results of the analysis, provides explanations regarding long- and short-term trends and rates of shoreline change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. This report differs from the early USGS reports in the series in that those shoreline change analyses incorporated only four total shorelines to represent specific time periods. This assessment of the PNW incorporates all available shorelines that meet minimum quality standards for resolution and positional accuracy. Shoreline change evaluations are based on a comparison of historical shoreline positions digitized from maps or aerial photographic data sources with recent shorelines, at least one of which is derived from lidar surveys. The historical shorelines cover a variety of time periods ranging from the 1800s through the 1980s, whereas the lidar shoreline is from 2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all available shoreline data and short-term rates of change are calculated using the lidar shoreline and the historical shoreline that will produce an assessment for a 15- to 35-year period. The rates of change presented in this report represent conditions up to the date of only the most recent shoreline data and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. The PNW coast was subdivided into eight analysis regions for the purpose of graphically reporting regional trends in shoreline change rates. The average rate of long-term shoreline change for the entire PNW coast was 0.9 meter per year (m/yr) of progradation with an uncertainty of 0.07 m/yr. This rate is based on 8,823 individual transects, of which 36 percent was determined to be eroding. Long-term shoreline change was generally more progradational in Washington than in Oregon. This is primarily due to the influence of the Columbia River and human perturbations to the natural system, particularly the construction of jetties at both the mouth of the Columbia River and at Grays Harbor, Washington. The majority of the beaches in southwestern Washington have responded to these large-scale engineered structures by experiencing dramatic beach progradation during the past century. Although these beaches are still responding to the human effects, in several locations beaches that had been rapidly prograding are now either prograding at a slower rate or eroding. The average rate of short-term shoreline change in the PNW was also progradational at a rate of 0.9 m/yr with an uncertainty of 0.03 m/yr. This rate is based on 9,087 individual transects, of which 44 percent was determined to be eroding. Similar to the results of the long-term shoreline change analysis, the shorelines in Washington were typically more progradational than those in Oregon in the short term. However, many stretches of coast in Oregon are either less accretional, changed from accretional to erosional, or more erosional when comparing the long- and short-term rate calculations. In the long and short term, there are significantly different historical shoreline change trends for beaches deriving their modern sediments from the Columbia River in southwestern Washington and northwestern Oregon, and beaches elsewhere in the PNW. The majority of shorelines in Oregon and in Washington’s Olympic Peninsula are not influenced by the human effects to the Columbia River littoral cell and typically have not experienced the human-induced century-scale trends apparent in southwestern Washington and northwestern Oregon. An increase in erosion hazards in much of Oregon may be related to the effects of sea-level rise and increasing storm wave heights. Of importance, particularly in the short term, is the alongshore variability in land uplift rates due to tectonics, which results in an alongshore varying rate of relative sea level rise that appears to at least partially control the regional variability in short-term shoreline change rates. Other climate related processes, such as the occurrence of major El Niño events, also significantly affect the shoreline changes in the region. Major El Niño events elevate monthly mean sea levels by tens of centimeters throughout the winter and produce a shift in the storm tracks, resulting in alongshore redistributions in sand volumes on the beaches, leading to hotspot beach erosion and property losses north of headlands and tidal inlets to bays and estuaries. There are limited modern-day sources of sand to Oregon’s beaches, with much of the sand being relict in having arrived thousands of years ago at a time of lowered sea levels when headlands did not prevent the alongshore movement of the beach sediments, the result being that many beaches today are deficient in sand volumes and therefore do not provide sufficient buffer protection to backshore properties during winter storms.

Oregon;Washington↗

The changing shapes of active volcanoes: History, evolution, and future challenges for volcano geodesy

At the very heart of volcanology lies the search for the 'plumbing systems' that form the inner workings of Earth’s active volcanoes. By their very nature, however, the magmatic reservoirs and conduits that underlie these active volcanic systems are elusive; mostly they are observable only through circumstantial evidence, using indirect, and often ambiguous, surficial measurements. Of course, we can infer much about these systems from geologic investigation of materials brought to the surface by eruptions and of the exposed roots of ancient volcanoes. But how can we study the magmatic processes that are occurring beneath Earth’s active volcanoes? What are the geometry, scale, physical, and chemical characteristics of magma reservoirs? Can we infer the dynamics of magma transport? Can we use this information to better forecast the future behavior of volcanoes? These questions comprise some of the most fundamental, recurring themes of modern research in volcanology. The field of volcano geodesy is uniquely situated to provide critical observational constraints on these problems. For the past decade, armed with a new array of technological innovations, equipped with powerful computers, and prepared with new analytical tools, volcano geodesists have been poised to make significant advances in our fundamental understanding of the behavior of active volcanic systems. The purpose of this volume is to highlight some of these recent advances, particularly in the collection and interpretation of geodetic data from actively deforming volcanoes. The 18 papers that follow report on new geodetic data that offer valuable insights into eruptive activity and magma transport; they present new models and modeling strategies that have the potential to greatly increase understanding of magmatic, hydrothermal, and volcano-tectonic processes; and they describe innovative techniques for collecting geodetic measurements from remote, poorly accessible, or hazardous volcanoes. To provide a proper context for these studies, we offer a short review of the evolution of volcano geodesy, as well as a case study that highlights recent advances in the field by comparing the geodetic response to recent eruptive episodes at Mount St. Helens. Finally, we point out a few areas that continue to challenge the volcano geodesy community, some of which are addressed by the papers that follow and which undoubtedly will be the focus of future research for years to come.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

Surficial geologic map of the Evansville, Indiana, and Henderson, Kentucky, area

The geologic map of the Evansville, Indiana, and Henderson, Kentucky, area depicts and describes surficial deposits according to their origin and age. Unconsolidated alluvium and outwash fill the Ohio River bedrock valley and attain maximum thickness of 33-39 m under Diamond Island, Kentucky, and Griffith Slough, south of Newburgh, Indiana. The fill is chiefly unconsolidated, fine- to medium-grained, lithic quartz sand, interbedded with clay, clayey silt, silt, coarse sand, granules, and gravel. Generally, the valley fill fines upward from the buried bedrock surface: a lower part being gravelly sand to sandy gravel, a middle part mostly of sand, and a surficial veneer of silt and clay interspersed with sandy, natural levee deposits at river's edge. Beneath the unconsolidated fill are buried and discontinuous, lesser amounts of consolidated fill unconformably overlying the buried bedrock surface. Most of the glaciofluvial valley fill accumulated during the Wisconsin Episode (late Pleistocene). Other units depicted on the map include creek alluvium, slackwater lake (lacustrine) deposits, colluvium, dune sand, loess, and sparse bedrock outcrops. Creek alluvium underlies creek floodplains and consists of silt, clayey silt, and subordinate interbedded fine sand, granules, and pebbles. Lenses and beds of clay are present locally. Silty and clayey slackwater lake (lacustrine) deposits extensively underlie broad flats northeast of Evansville and around Henderson and are as thick as 28 m. Fossil wood collected from an auger hole in the lake and alluvial deposits of Little Creek, at depths of 10.6 m and 6.4 m, are dated 16,650+-50 and 11,120+-40 radiocarbon years, respectively. Fossil wood collected from lake sediment 16 m below the surface in lake sediment was dated 33,100+-590 radiocarbon years. Covering the hilly bedrock upland is loess (Qel), 3-7.5 m thick in Indiana and 9-15 m thick in Kentucky, deposited about 22,000-12,000 years before present. Most mapped surficial deposits in the quadrangle are probably no older than about 55,000 years. Lithologic logs, shear-wave velocities, and other cone penetrometer data are used to interpret depositional environments and geologic history of the surficial deposits. This map, which includes an area of slightly more than seven 7.5-minute quadrangles, serves several purposes. It is a tool for assessing seismic and flood hazards of a major urban area; aids urban planning; conveys geologic history; and locates aggregate resources. The map was produced concurrently with research by seismologists to determine places where the surficial deposits may tend to liquefy and (or) to amplify ground motions during strong earthquakes. Such hazardous responses to shaking are related to the characteristics of the geologic materials and topographic position, which the geologic map depicts. The geologic map is an element in the cooperative seismic hazard assessment program among the States of Indiana, Kentucky, and Illinois and the U.S. Geological Survey, funded by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program and National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program of the U.S. Geological Survey.

Indiana, Kentucky↗

Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~M w 9.1 (required today) to M w 8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone.

Alaska, California↗

Sediment-induced amplification and the collapse of the Nimitz Freeway

The amplification of ground motion by low-seismic-velocity surface sediments is an important factor in determining the seismic hazard specific to a given site. The M s = 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake of 17 October 1989 was the largest event in the contiguous United States in 37 years, and yielded an unparalleled volume of seismic data from the main shock and aftershock sequence 1 . These data can be used to image the seismic source, to study detailed Earth structure, and to study the propagation of seismic waves both through bedrock at depth and through sediment layers near the surface. Near the edge of San Francisco Bay, site conditions vary considerably on scales of hundreds of metres. The collapsed section of the two-tiered Nimitz Freeway in Oakland was built on San Francisco Bay mud, whereas stiffen alluvial sediments underlie a southern section that was damaged but did not collapse. Here we analyse high-quality, digital aftershock recordings from several sites near the Nimitz Freeway, and conclude that soil conditions and resulting ground-motion amplification may have contributed significantly to the failure of the structure.

California↗

Mount St. Helens retrospective: Lessons learned since 1980 and remaining challenges

Since awakening from a 123-year repose in 1980, Mount St. Helens has provided an opportunity to study changes in crustal magma storage at an active arc volcano—a process of fundamental importance to eruption forecasting and hazards mitigation. There has been considerable progress, but important questions remain unanswered. Was the 1980 eruption triggered by an injection of magma into an upper crustal reservoir? If so, when? How did magma rise into the edifice without producing detectable seismicity deeper than ∼2.5 km or measurable surface deformation beyond the volcano’s north flank? Would precursory activity have been recognized earlier if current monitoring techniques had been available? Despite substantial improvements in monitoring capability, similar questions remain after the dome-forming eruption of 2004–2008. Did additional magma accumulate in the reservoir between the end of the 1980–1986 eruption and the start of the 2004–2008 eruption? If so, when? What is the significance of a relative lull in seismicity and surface deformation for several years prior to the 2004–2008 eruption onset? How did magma reach the surface without producing seismicity deeper than ∼2 km or measurable deformation more than a few hundred meters from the vent? Has the reservoir been replenished since the eruption ended, and is it now primed for the next eruption? What additional precursors, if any, should be expected? This paper addresses these questions, explores possible answers, and identifies unresolved issues in need of additional study. The 1980–1986 and 2004–2008 eruptions could have resulted from second boiling during crystallization of magma long-resident in an upper crustal reservoir, rather than from injection of fresh magma from below. If reservoir pressurization and magma ascent were slow enough, resulting strain might have been accommodated by viscoelastic deformation, without appreciable seismicity or surface deformation, until rising magma entered a brittle regime within 2–2.5 km of the surface. Given the remarkably gas-poor nature of the 2004–2008 dome lava, future eruptive activity might require a relatively long period of quiescence and reservoir pressurization or a large injection of fresh magma—an event that arguably has not occurred since the Kalama eruptive period (C.E. 1479–1720).

Washington↗

National Assessment of Shoreline Change Part 3: Historical Shoreline Change and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along Sandy Shorelines of the California Coast

Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. In the case of this study, the shoreline being measured is the boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the California Coast represents the first of two reports on long-term sandy shoreline change for the western U.S., the second of which will include the coast of the Pacific NW, including Oregon and Washington. A report for the Gulf of Mexico shoreline was completed in 2004 and is available at: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2004/1043/. This report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results, provides explanations regarding long-term and short-term trends and rates of change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. Shoreline change evaluations are based on comparing three historical shorelines digitized from maps, with a recent shoreline derived from lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) topographic surveys. The historical shorelines generally represent the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1950s-1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is from 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all four shorelines (1800s to lidar shoreline), whereas short-term rates of change are calculated for only the most recent period (1950s-1970s to lidar shoreline). The rates of change presented in this report represent past conditions and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. Due to the geomorphology of the California Coast (rocky coastline instead of beach) as well as to data gaps in some areas, this report presents beach erosion rates for 45% of California's 1100 km of coast. The average rate of long-term shoreline change for the State of California was 0.2?0.1 m/yr, an accretional trend. This is based on shoreline change rates averaged from 14,562 individual transects, of which 40% were eroding. Of the transects on which the shoreline was eroding, the long-term erosion rates were generally lowest in Southern California where coastal engineering projects have greatly altered the natural shoreline movement. On a regional scale, long-term accretion rates were either equal to (Central California) or greater than (Northern and Southern California) the long-term erosion rates, yielding the net accretional trend for the entire state. This accretional trend is most likely due to changes in the large volumes of sediment that are added to the system from large rivers and to the impact from coastal engineering and beach nourishment projects. The average rate of short-term shoreline change for the state was erosional. The net short-term rate as averaged along 16,142 transects was -0.2?0.4 m/yr. Of the transects used to measure short-term change, 66% had erosional trends. In addition erosion rates were higher in the short-term period, possibly related to the localized artificial nourishment that occurred over much of the 20th century but that has recently slowed or stopped (Flick, 1993; Wiegel, 1994). Short-term accretion rates were highest in Northern California where the overall magnitudes of shoreline change are systematically higher than in Central and Southern California. The most stable (low erosion and accretion rates) California beaches were most commonly found in Central California. Seawalls and/or riprap revetments have been constructed in all three sections of California, although many of these structures were built to protect houses and infrastructures from the erosion of coastal cliffs and bluffs rather than to protect against long-term beach erosion. California permits shoreline stabilization structures where homes, buildings or other community infrastructure are imminently threatened by erosion. A second California report that is following this publication will include analyses and reports on long-term coastal cliff erosion, as this hazard is of equal or greater concern to coastal communities in many areas along the California Coast.

Open-File Report↗

Field evidence and indicators of rockfall fragmentation and implications for mobility

Rockfall fragmentation can play an important role in hazard studies and the design of protective measures. However, the current lack of modeling tools that incorporate rock fragmentation mechanics is a limitation to enhancing studies and design. This research investigates the fragmentation patterns of rockfalls and analyzes the resulting distribution of fragment sizes within corresponding rockfall deposits. We focus on small rock fragments, which provide insights into the dynamics of the rockfall event and can be used as input for numerical modeling. We analyzed multiple rockfall events from locations worldwide, each exhibiting different degrees of fragmentation. Using image analysis techniques, we mapped all visible blocks, determined their volumes, and measured the distances they travelled from the initial point of impact. A key finding is the identification of three indicators of fragmentation. First, in cases where fragmentation was largely absent, we observed a trend of increasing block size with distance from the impact point or source area, which aligns with previously published findings. However, for energetic rockfall events characterized by intense fragmentation, we observed that small fragments exhibited longer travel distances compared to larger fragments. This distinction allowed us to differentiate blocks primarily resulting from the disaggregation process from those primarily resulting from dynamic fragmentation, with implications for rockfall mobility. Second, although the size distribution of rockfall deposits exhibits a power-law scaling for volumes larger than a minimum size threshold corresponding to a rollover of the distribution, in some case studies a deviation from power-law scaling is observed, indicating a process of larger block comminution due to fragmentation. Third, we found that rockfalls with fragmentation experience reduced mobility, indicated by higher reach angles, and higher lateral dispersion showing a wider distribution of trajectories. We interpret these findings as being directly related to the energy-consuming nature of fragmentation, which prevents farther deposition of fragmented rock blocks.

Albacete province, Lombardy and Aosta Valley, Yose↗

Sources and occurrence of chloroform and other trihalomethanes in drinking-water supply wells in the United States, 1986-2001

Chloroform and three other trihalomethanes (THMs)--bromodichloromethane, dibromochloromethane, and bromoform--are disinfection by-products commonly produced during the chlorination of water and wastewater. Samples of untreated ground water from drinking-water supply wells (1,096 public and 2,400 domestic wells) were analyzed for THMs and other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during 1986-2001, or compiled, as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. This report provides a summary of potential sources of THMs and of the occurrence and geographical distribution of THMs in samples from public and domestic wells. Evidence for an anthropogenic source of THMs and implications for future research also are presented. Potential sources of THMs to both public and domestic wells include the discharge of chlorinated drinking water and wastewater that may be intentional or inadvertent. Intentional discharge includes the use of municipally supplied chlorinated water to irrigate lawns, golf courses, parks, gardens, and other areas; the use of septic systems; or the regulated discharge of chlorinated wastewater to surface waters or ground-water recharge facilities. Inadvertent discharge includes leakage of chlorinated water from swimming pools, spas, or distribution systems for drinking water or wastewater sewers. Statistical analyses indicate that population density, the percentage of urban land, and the number of Resource Conservation and Recovery Act hazardous-waste facilities near sampled wells are significantly associated with the probability of detection of chloroform, especially for public wells. Domestic wells may have several other sources of THMs, including the practice of well disinfection through shock chlorination, laundry wastewater containing bleach, and septic system effluent. Chloroform was the most frequently detected VOC in samples from drinking-water supply wells (public and domestic wells) in the United States. Although chloroform was detected frequently in samples from public and domestic wells and the other THMs were detected in some samples, no concentrations in samples from either well type exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Maximum Contaminant Level of 80 micrograms per liter for total THMs. Chloroform was detected in public well samples almost twice as frequently (11 percent) as in domestic well samples (5 percent). The other three THMs also were detected more frequently in public well samples than in domestic well samples. This detection pattern may be attributed to public wells having a higher pumping capacity than domestic wells. The higher capacity wells create a larger capture zone that potentially intercepts more urban and other land uses and associated point and nonpoint sources of contamination than the smaller capacity domestic wells. THM detection frequencies in domestic well samples show a pattern of decreasing frequency with increasing bromide content, that is in the order: chloroform > bromodichloromethane >= dibromochloromethane >= bromoform. This same pattern has been documented in studies of water chlorination, indicating that an important source of chloroform and other THMs in drinking-water supply wells may be the recycling of chlorinated water and wastewater. Mixtures of THMs commonly occur in public well samples, and the most frequently occurring are combinations of the brominated THMs. These THMs have limited industrial production, few natural sources, and small or no reported direct releases to the environment. Therefore, industrial, commercial, or natural sources are not likely sources of the brominated THMs in public and domestic well samples. The THM detection frequency pattern, the co-occurrence of brominated THMs, and other lines of evidence indicate that the recycling of water with a history of chlorination is an important source of these compounds in samples from drinking-water supply wells.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Assessing the vulnerability of public-supply wells to contamination: Glacial aquifer system in Woodbury, Connecticut

This fact sheet highlights findings from the vulnerability study of a public-supply well in Woodbury, Connecticut. The well typically produces water at the rate of 72 gallons per minute from the glacial aquifer system in the Pomperaug River Basin. Water samples were collected at the public-supply well and at monitoring wells installed in or near the simulated zone of contribution to the supply well. Samples of untreated water from the public-supply wellhead contained several types of undesirable constituents, including 11 volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrate, pesticides, uranium, and radon. Most of these constituents were detected at concentrations below drinking-water standards, where such standards exist. Only concentrations of the VOC trichlorethylene exceeded the Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 5 micrograms per liter (ug/L) established by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for drinking water. Radon concentrations exceeded a proposed-but not finalized-MCL of 300 picocuries per liter (pCi/L). Overall, the study findings point to four main factors that affect the movement and fate of contaminants and the vulnerability of the public-supply well in Woodbury: (1) groundwater age (how long ago water entered, or recharged, the aquifer); (2) the percentage of recharge received through urban areas; (3) the percentage of recharge received through dry wells and their proximity to the public-supply well; and (4) natural geochemical processes occurring within the aquifer system; that is, processes that affect the amounts and distribution of chemical substances in aquifer sediments and groundwater. A computer-model simulation of groundwater flow to the public-supply well was used to estimate the age of water particles entering the well along the length of the well screen. About 90 percent of the simulated flow to the well consists of water that entered the aquifer 9 or fewer years ago. Such young water is vulnerable to contaminants resulting from human activities, as indicated by the solvents, fuel components, road salt, and septic-system leachate that were detected in the glacial aquifer system during the current study. Age-dating combined with chemical modeling suggests that less than 2 percent of water produced by the public-supply well is water from the deep bedrock that is "old" (water that recharged, or entered, the aquifer before 1952). Such a small percentage of old groundwater entering the public-supply well offers little potential for dilution of young waters containing contaminants from human activities. Shallow groundwater that originated as recharge through urban areas generally had higher median concentrations and more detections of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) than did groundwater from the deep glacial deposits or fractured bedrock that originated mainly as recharge through agricultural and undeveloped land. Shallow groundwater was also found to be affected by road salt and septic-system leachate. A chemical mixing model indicates that up to 15 percent of nitrate in water from the supply well is likely from septic-system leachate. The Connecticut Department of Public Health has identified several potential sources of contamination in the commercial area of Woodbury (several light industrial or commercial properties where hazardous materials and petroleum products are used and stored). To reduce stormwater runoff in the commercial area, water from the parking lots and pavement is channeled into dry wells-drains that shunt water directly into the aquifer system, bypassing the soil and unsaturated zones. A computer-model simulation of groundwater flow indicates that approximately 16 percent of the water produced by the public-supply well is derived from runoff captured by these drains. Traveltime for water from the dry wells to the public-supply well ranges from about 1.5 to less than 4 years. Dry wells have the potential to enhance contaminant movement to the supply well, suggesting that stormwater-control methods cannot be considered separately from groundwater quality—they are linked. Water-quality protection in this setting depends on the entire community. If residents and businesses take steps to reduce input of manmade contaminants to groundwater, a positive effect on quality of the supply-well water might begin to be seen in less than 10 years, owing to the short residence time of water in the aquifer.

Connecticut↗

Photochemical mobilization of dissolved hydrocarbon oxidation products from petroleum contaminated soil into a shallow aquifer activate human nuclear receptors

Elevated non-volatile dissolved organic carbon (NVDOC) concentrations in groundwater monitoring wells under oil-contaminated hydrophobic soils originating from a pipeline rupture at the National Crude Oil Spill & Natural Attenuation Research Site near Bemidji, MN are documented.. We hypothesized the elevated NVDOC is comprised of water-soluble photooxidation products transported from the surface to the aquifer. We use field and laboratory samples in combination with complementary analytical methods to test this hypothesis and determine the biological response to these products. Observations from optical spectroscopy and ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry reveal a significant correlation between the chemical composition of NVDOC leached from photochemically weathered soils and groundwater monitoring wells with high NVDOC concentrations measured in the aquifer beneath the contaminated soil. Conversely, the chemical composition from the uncontaminated soil photoleachate, matches the NVDOC observed in the uncontaminated wells. Contaminated groundwater and photodissolution leachates from contaminated soil activated biological targets indicative of xenobiotic metabolism and exhibited potential for adverse effects. Newly formed hydrocarbon oxidation products (HOPs) from fresh oil could be distinguished from those downgradient. This study illustrates another pathway for dissolved HOPs to infiltrate groundwater and potentially affect human health and the environment.

Minnesota↗

Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

Open-File Report↗

Persistent earthquake clusters and gaps from slip on irregular faults

Earthquake-producing fault systems like the San Andreas fault in California show self-similar structural variation 1 ; earthquakes cluster in space, leaving aseismic gaps between clusters. Whether gaps represent overdue earthquakes or signify diminished risk is a question with which seismic-hazard forecasters wrestle 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 . Here I use spectral analysis of the spatial distribution of seismicity along the San Andreas fault (for earthquakes that are at least 2 in magnitude), which reveals that it obeys a power-law relationship, indicative of self-similarity in clusters across a range of spatial scales. To determine whether the observed clustering of earthquakes is the result of a heterogeneous stress distribution, I use a finite-element method to simulate the motion of two rigid blocks past each other along a model fault surface that shows three-dimensional complexity on the basis of mapped traces of the San Andreas fault. The results indicate that long-term slip on the model fault generates a temporally stable, spatially variable distribution of stress that shows the same power-law relationship as the earthquake distribution. At the highest rates of San Andreas fault slip (40 mm yr −1 ), stress patterns produced are stable over a minimum of 25,000 years before the model fault system evolves into a new configuration. These results suggest that although gaps are not immune to rupture propagation they are less likely to be nucleation sites for earthquakes.

California↗

Directed site exploration for permeable reactive barrier design

Permeable reactive barriers (PRBs) are being employed for in situ site remediation of groundwater that is typically flowing under natural gradients. Site characterization is of critical importance to the success of a PRB. A design-specific site exploration approach called quantitatively directed exploration (QDE) is presented. The QDE approach employs three spatially related matrices: (1) covariance of input parameters, (2) sensitivity of model outputs, and (3) covariance of model outputs to identify the most important location to explore based on a specific design. Sampling at the location that most reduces overall site uncertainty produces a higher probability of success of a particular design. The QDE approach is demonstrated on the Kansas City Plant, Kansas City, MO, a case study where a PRB was installed and failed. It is shown that additional quantitatively directed site exploration during the design phase could have prevented the remedial failure that was caused by missing a geologic body having high hydraulic conductivity at the south end of the barrier. The most contributing input parameter approach using head uncertainty clearly indicated where the next sampling should be made toward the high hydraulic conductivity zone. This case study demonstrates the need to include the specific design as well as site characterization uncertainty when choosing the sampling locations. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Journal of Hazardous Materials↗

Mapping Shoreline Change Using Digital Orthophotogrammetry on Maui, Hawaii

Digital, aerial orthophotomosaics with 0.5-3.0 m horizontal accuracy, used with NOAA topographic maps (T-sheets), document past shoreline positions on Maui Island, Hawaii. Outliers in the shoreline position database are determined using a least median of squares regression. Least squares linear regression of the reweighted data (outliers excluded) is used to determine a shoreline trend termed the reweighted linear squares (RLS). To determine the annual erosion hazard rate (AEHR) for use by shoreline managers the RLS data is smoothed in the longshore direction using a weighted moving average five transects wide with the smoothed rate applied to the center transect. Weightings within each five transect group are 1,3,5,3,1. AEHR's (smoothed RLS values) are plotted on a 1:3000 map series for use by shoreline managers and planners. These maps are displayed on the web for public reference at http://www.co.maui.hi.us/ departments/Planning/erosion.htm. An end-point rate of change is also calculated using the earliest T-sheet and the latest collected shoreline (1997 or 2002). The resulting database consists of 3565 separate erosion rates spaced every 20 m along 90 km of sandy shoreline. Three regions are analyzed: Kihei, West Maui, and North Shore coasts. The Kihei Coast has an average AEHR of about 0.3 m/yr, an end point rate (EPR) of 0.2 m/yr, 2.8 km of beach loss and 19 percent beach narrowing in the period 1949-1997. Over the same period the West Maui coast has an average AEHR of about 0.2 m/yr, an average EPR of about 0.2 m/yr, about 4.5 km of beach loss and 25 percent beach narrowing. The North Shore has an average AEHR of about 0.4 m/yr, an average EPR of about 0.3 m/yr, 0.8 km of beach loss and 15 percent beach narrowing. The mean, island-wide EPR of eroding shorelines is 0.24 m/yr and the average AEHR of eroding shorelines is about 0.3 m/yr. The overall shoreline change rate, erosion and accretion included, as measured using the unsmoothed RLS technique is 0.21 m/yr. Island wide changes in beach width show a 19 percent decrease over the period 1949/ 1950 to 1997/2002. Island-wide, about 8 km of dry beach has been lost since 1949 (i.e., high water against hard engineering structures and natural rock substrate).

Conference Paper↗

Aerogeophysical measurements of collapse-prone hydrothermally altered zones at Mount Rainier volcano

Hydrothermally altered rocks can weaken volcanoes, increasing the potential for catastrophic sector collapses that can lead to destructive debris flows1. Evaluating the hazards associated with such alteration is difficult because alteration has been mapped on few active volcanoes1-4 and the distribution and severity of subsurface alteration is largely unknown on any active volcano. At Mount Rainier volcano (Washington, USA), collapses of hydrothermally altered edifice flanks have generated numerous extensive debris flows5,6 and future collapses could threaten areas that are now densely populated7. Preliminary geological mapping and remote-sensing data indicated that exposed alteration is contained in a dyke-controlled belt trending east-west that passes through the volcano's summit3-5,8. But here we present helicopter-borne electromagnetic and magnetic data, combined with detailed geological mapping, to show that appreciable thicknesses of mostly buried hydrothermally altered rock lie mainly in the upper west flank of Mount Rainier. We identify this as the likely source for future large debris flows. But as negligible amounts of highly altered rock lie in the volcano's core, this might impede collapse retrogression and so limit the volumes and inundation areas of future debris flows. Our results demonstrate that high-resolution geophysical and geological observations can yield unprecedented views of the three-dimensional distribution of altered rock.

Nature↗