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A hydrologic perspective of major U.S. droughts

Drought is a recurring natural hazard that has substantial human and environmental impacts. Given continued global warming and associated climate change, there is concern that droughts could become more severe and longer lasting. To better monitor and understand drought development and persistence, it is helpful to understand the development and climatic drivers of past droughts. In this study we use monthly runoff percentiles to identify five major drought events in the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 1901 through 2020. For each drought event we examined spatial patterns of departures of mean monthly precipitation, temperature, soil moisture storage, and runoff for 2,107 hydrologic units (HUs) across the CONUS. Results indicated that precipitation deficits have been the primary driver of past major-drought events and temperature a secondary driver, even of the most recent drought event (September 1999 through September 2015) when positive temperature anomalies occurred over most of the CONUS. Additionally, negative soil moisture storage departures were more negative than runoff departures during the five drought events we examined, which emphasizes the importance of measuring both runoff and soil moisture to monitor drought conditions. We also examined the use of statistical persistence to develop short-term (i.e., 1 month) forecasts of runoff drought conditions in the CONUS by developing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for each HU. Results indicated that persistence can be used to predict short-term changes in the spatial pattern of drought and the areal extent of drought, but that predictions of runoff magnitude for any particular site are often poor.

International Journal of Climatology↗

A stable isotope record of late Quaternary hydrologic change in the northwestern Brooks Range, Alaska (eastern Beringia)

A submillennial-resolution record of lake water oxygen isotope composition (δ 18 O) from chironomid head capsules is presented from Burial Lake, northwest Alaska. The record spans the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~20–16k cal a bp ) to the present and shows a series of large lake δ 18 O shifts (~5‰). Relatively low δ 18 O values occurred during a period covering the LGM, when the lake was a shallow, closed-basin pond. Higher values characterize deglaciation (~16–11.5k cal a bp ) when the lake was still closed but lake levels were higher. A rapid decline between ~11 and 10.5k cal a bp indicates that lake levels rose to overflowing. Lake δ 18 O values are interpreted to reflect the combined effects of changes in lake hydrology, growing season temperature and meteoric source water as well as large-scale environmental changes impacting this site, including opening of the Bering Strait and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns related to ice-sheet dynamics. The results indicate significant shifts in precipitation minus evaporation across the late Pleistocene to early Holocene transition, which are consistent with temporal patterns of vegetation change and paludification. This study provides new perspectives on the paleohydrology of eastern Beringia concomitant with human migration and major turnover in megafaunal assemblages.

Alaska↗

Hydrologic effects on growth and hatching success of age-0 Channel Catfish in the Tallapoosa River basin: Implications for management in regulated systems

We assessed the effects of hydrology on growth and hatching success of age‐0 Channel Catfish Ictalurus punctatus in regulated and unregulated reaches of the Tallapoosa River basin, Alabama. Age‐0 Channel Catfish ( N = 91) were collected from sites in both the Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions in fall 2003 and fall 2005. Lapillus otoliths were used to estimate the daily ages of age‐0 Channel Catfish, for which hatch dates were back‐calculated. We performed growth analysis to determine growth histories of each fish at 20‐d increments from hatch. Across the 2 years of sampling, Channel Catfish hatches were documented from June 7 to September 15. Ages and growth rates of age‐0 Channel Catfish ranged from 20 to 126 d and 0.60 to 1.5 mm/d, respectively. In general, growth was highest among age‐0 Channel Catfish from unregulated sites in the lower Coastal Plain, lowest among fish from unregulated sites in the Piedmont, and intermediate from regulated sites in the Piedmont. Successful hatching typically occurred during periods when mean discharges were in the upper two quartiles of flows for each site but not during exceptionally high peaks in flow. Physiographic province, the frequency of high pulses, and the number of flow reversals were the most important factors influencing the growth of recently hatched Channel Catfish. Results suggest that a low to moderate frequency of high pulses (25–150 pulses per 20‐d increment) and a moderate number of flow reversals (~100–175 reversals per 20‐d increment) enhances early growth of Channel Catfish in the Tallapoosa River system. Managing flow, when possible, to minimize large releases of water that result in exceptionally high pulses and providing minimal hydropeaking may improve hatching success during the Channel Catfish spawning season.

Alabama↗

Effects of hydrologic infrastructure on flow regimes of California's Central Valley rivers: Implications for fish populations

Alteration of natural flow regimes is generally acknowledged to have negative effects on native biota; however, methods for defining ecologically appropriate flow regimes in managed river systems are only beginning to be developed. Understanding how past and present water management has affected rivers is an important part of developing such tools. In this paper, we evaluate how existing hydrologic infrastructure and management affect streamflow characteristics of rivers in the Central Valley, California and discuss those characteristics in the context of habitat requirements of native and alien fishes. We evaluated the effects of water management by comparing observed discharges with estimated discharges assuming no water management ("full natural runoff"). Rivers in the Sacramento River drainage were characterized by reduced winter–spring discharges and augmented discharges in other months. Rivers in the San Joaquin River drainage were characterized by reduced discharges in all months but particularly in winter and spring. Two largely unaltered streams had hydrographs similar to those based on full natural runoff of the regulated rivers. The reduced discharges in the San Joaquin River drainage streams are favourable for spawning of many alien species, which is consistent with observed patterns of fish distribution and abundance in the Central Valley. However, other factors, such as water temperature, are also important to the relative success of native and alien resident fishes. As water management changes in response to climate change and societal demands, interdisciplinary programs of research and monitoring will be essential for anticipating effects on fishes and to avoid unanticipated ecological outcomes.

California↗

The influence of major dams on hydrology through the drainage network of the Sacramento River basin, California

This paper reports basinwide patterns of hydrograph alteration via statistical and graphical analysis from a network of long-term streamflow gauges located various distances downstream of major dams and confluences in the Sacramento River basin in California, USA. Streamflow data from 10 gauging stations downstream of major dams were divided into hydrologic series corresponding to the periods before and after dam construction. Pre- and post-dam flows were compared with respect to hydrograph characteristics representing frequency, magnitude and shape: annual flood peak, annual flow trough, annual flood volume, time to flood peak, flood drawdown time and interarrival time. The use of such a suite of characteristics within a statistical and graphical framework allows for generalising distinct strategies of flood control operation that can be identified without any a priori knowledge of operations rules. Dam operation is highly dependent on the ratio of reservoir capacity to annual flood volume (impounded runoff index). Dams with high values of this index generally completely cut off flood peaks thus reducing time to peak, drawdown time and annual flood volume. Those with low values conduct early and late flow releases to extend the hydrograph, increasing time to peak, drawdown time and annual flood volume. The analyses reveal minimal flood control benefits from foothill dams in the lower Sacramento River (i.e. dissipation of the down-valley flood control signal). The lower part of the basin is instead reliant on a weir and bypass system to control lowland flooding. Data from a control gauge (i.e. with no upstream dams) suggest a background signature of global climate change expressed as shortened flood hydrograph falling limbs and lengthened flood interarrival times at low exceedence probabilities. This research has implications for flood control, water resource management, aquatic and riparian ecosystems and for rehabilitation strategies involving flow alteration and/or manipulation of sediment supplies. Copyright ?? 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

River Research and Applications↗

Balancing practicality and hydrologic realism: a parsimonious approach for simulating rapid groundwater recharge via unsaturated-zone preferential flow

The impact of preferential flow on recharge and contaminant transport poses a considerable challenge to water-resources management. Typical hydrologic models require extensive site characterization, but can underestimate fluxes when preferential flow is significant. A recently developed source-responsive model incorporates film-flow theory with conservation of mass to estimate unsaturated-zone preferential fluxes with readily available data. The term source-responsive describes the sensitivity of preferential flow in response to water availability at the source of input. We present the first rigorous tests of a parsimonious formulation for simulating water table fluctuations using two case studies, both in arid regions with thick unsaturated zones of fractured volcanic rock. Diffuse flow theory cannot adequately capture the observed water table responses at both sites; the source-responsive model is a viable alternative. We treat the active area fraction of preferential flow paths as a scaled function of water inputs at the land surface then calibrate the macropore density to fit observed water table rises. Unlike previous applications, we allow the characteristic film-flow velocity to vary, reflecting the lag time between source and deep water table responses. Analysis of model performance and parameter sensitivity for the two case studies underscores the importance of identifying thresholds for initiation of film flow in unsaturated rocks, and suggests that this parsimonious approach is potentially of great practical value.

Water Resources Research↗

Understanding the central Great Plains as a coupled climatic-hydrological-human system: Lessons learned in operationalizing interdisciplinary collaboration

This chapter discusses an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary project to understand the interactions of agriculture, climate, and water resources in the Central Great Plains as a coupled natural-human system. We focus on the Smoky Hills Watershed in Kansas, where we gathered socioeconomic, hydrological, and climatic data, along with ecological data on fish species. The project involved substantial stakeholder engagement, which was complicated by post-truth attitudes about climate science and environmental regulation by some groups. We discuss the challenges of team management, stakeholder engagement, and data integration for modeling, notably the incorporation of stakeholder support for environmental policy in the context of extreme climatic events. We conclude by offering a framework for good collaborative practice to manage the complications of crossing boundaries in transdisciplinary research and outreach.

Kansas↗

Assessing and measuring wetland hydrology

Virtually all ecological processes that occur in wetlands are influenced by the water that flows to, from, and within these wetlands. This chapter provides the “how-to” information for quantifying the various source and loss terms associated with wetland hydrology. The chapter is organized from a water-budget perspective, with sections associated with each of the water-budget components that are common in most wetland settings. Methods for quantifying the water contained within the wetland are presented first, followed by discussion of each separate component. Measurement accuracy and sources of error are discussed for each of the methods presented, and a separate section discusses the cumulative error associated with determining a water budget for a wetland. Exercises and field activities will provide hands-on experience that will facilitate greater understanding of these processes.

Book chapter↗

The influence of hydrology on lacustrine sediment contaminant records

The way water flows to a lake, through streams, as runoff, or as groundwater, can control the distribution and mass of sediment and contaminants deposited. Whether a lake is large or small, deep or shallow, open or closed, the movement of water to a lake and the circulation patterns of water within a lake control how and where sediment and contaminants are deposited. Particle-associated contaminants may stay close to the input source of contamination or be transported by currents to bathymetric lows. A complex morphology of the lake bottom or shoreline can also affect how contaminants will be distributed. Dissolved contaminants may be widely dispersed in smaller lakes, but may be diluted in large lakes away from the source. Although dissolved contaminants may not be deposited in lake sediments, the impact of dissolved contaminants (such as nitrogen) may be reflected by the ecosystem. For instance, increased phosphorus and nitrogen may increase organic content or algal biomass, and contribute to eutrophication of the lake over time. Changes in oxidation-reduction potential at the sediment-water interface may either release some contaminants to the water column or conversely deposit other contaminants to the sediment depending on the compound’s chemical characteristics. Changes in land use generally affect the hydrology of the watershed surrounding a lake, providing more runoff if soil binding vegetation is removed or if more impervious cover (roads and buildings) is increased. Groundwater inputs may change if pumping of the aquifer connected to the lake occurs. Even if groundwater is only a small portion of the volume of water entering a lake, if contaminant concentrations in the aquifer are high compared to surface water inputs, the mass of contaminants from groundwater may be as, or more, important than surface water contributions.

Book chapter↗

Hydrologic control of litter decomposition in seasonally flooded prairie marshes

The effect of seasonal inundation on the decomposition of emergent macrophyte litter ( Scolochloa festucacea ) was examined under experimental flooding regimes in a northern prairie marsh. Stem and leaf litter was subjected to six aboveground inundation treatments (ranging from never flooded to flooded April through October) and two belowground treatments (nonflooded and flooded April to August). Flooding increased the rate of mass loss from litter aboveground but retarded decay belowground. Aboveground, N concentration decreased and subsequently increased earlier in the longer flooded treatments, indicating that flooding decreased the time that litter remained in the leaching and immobilization phases of decay. Belowground, both flooded and nonflooded litter showed an initial rapid loss of N, but concentration and percent of original N remaining were greater in the nonflooded marsh throughout the first year. This suggested that more N was immobilized on litter under the nonflooded, more oxidizing soil conditions. Both N concentration and percent N remaining of belowground litter were greater in the flooded than the nonflooded marsh the second year, suggesting that N immobilization was enhanced after water-level drawdown. These results suggest different mechanisms by which flooding affects decomposition in different wetland environments. On the soil surface where oxygen is readily available, flooding accelerates decomposition by increasing moisture. Belowground, flooding creates anoxic conditions that slow decay. The typical hydrologic pattern in seasonally flooded prairie marshes of spring flooding followed by water-level drawdown in summer may maximize system decomposition rates by allowing rapid decomposition aboveground in standing water and by annually alleviating soil anoxia.

Manitoba↗

Geologic and hydrologic hazards in glacierized basins in North America resulting from 19th and 20th century global warming

Alpine glacier retreat resulting from global warming since the close of the Little Ice Age in the 19th and 20th centuries has increased the risk and incidence of some geologic and hydrologic hazards in mountainous alpine regions of North America. Abundant loose debris in recently deglaciated areas at the toe of alpine glaciers provides a ready source of sediment during rainstorms or outburst floods. This sediment can cause debris flows and sedimentation problems in downstream areas. Moraines built during the Little Ice Age can trap and store large volumes of water. These natural dams have no controlled outlets and can fail without warning. Many glacier-dammed lakes have grown in size, while ice dams have shrunk, resulting in greater risks of ice-dam failure. The retreat and thinning of glacier ice has left oversteepened, unstable valley walls and has led to increased incidence of rock and debris avalanches. ?? 1993 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Natural Hazards↗

Hydrologic changes associated with the October 28, 1983, Idaho earthquake

Significant hydrologic changes were observed after the magnitude 7.3 earthquake that occurred on October 28, 1983, in central Idaho. Groundwater levels rose by as much as 3 meters near the epicenter. Discharge in many streams and springs increased, in some instances by more than 100%. One warm spring ceased flowing for several days; the flow then resumed and peaked at about nine times its original rate. Available data show no significant changes in water quality following the earthquake. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗

Hydrologic inferences from ring widths of flood-damaged trees, Potomac River, Maryland

Year-to-year variability in the ring widths of trees on flood plains along two reaches of the Potomac River near Washington, D.C., seems in large part to be related to differences in flood-flow regimes. Trees directly exposed to high flood velocities are damaged more often than sheltered trees and thus exhibit more variable ring-width patterns. The ring-width variability of unsheltered trees on low levels of flood plains is greater than that of trees on high levels, indicating that variability values are positively correlated with flood frequency. Sheltered trees, however, have less variable ring-width patterns than those of unsheltered trees, and variability is not correlated with flood frequency. As a result, ring-width variations may be used to estimate the probability of flood damage along local channel reaches of a stream. Growth responses after hydrologic catastrophies in 1948 and 1972 indicate that rings of flood-plain trees can be used to document the occurrence and crest altitude of high-magnitude floods. ?? 1982 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

Environmental Geology↗

Disturbance in a cypress-tupelo wetland: an interaction between thermal loading and hydrology

The interaction between thermal loading and hydrology was examined in a forested wetland. As a result of flooding, portions of the wetland are periodically exposed to elevated water temperatures, resulting in progressive deterioration of the canopy. We chose three study sites along a gradient of canopy disturbance: most disturbed, intermediate disturbance and a least disturbed site. The timing of flooding has important effects on this wetland: floods which occur late in the growing season have greater impact on the timing of litterfall and the extent of tree mortality. Following a flood in May, there was no observed increase in litterfall, and woody detrital production (tree mortality) eliminated only o.4% and 1.1% of the aboveground woody biomass at the intermediate and least disturbed sites, respectively. In contrast. premature leaf senescence and literfall were observed at the intermediate site following an August flood, and tree mortality at the intermediate and least disturbed sites eliminated 10% and 8%, respectively, of the aboveground woody biomass. At the most disturbed site, where the majority of trees were already dead, no additional mortality was recorded during the study. Long-term effects of this disturbance regime are the loss of small stems and increased stem production of trees which remain. While stem production at the intermediate site (413 g.m −2 .yr −1 ) exceeded that at the least disturbed site (373 g.m −2 .y −1 ), total aboveground net primary production was highest at the least disturbed site (788 g·m −2 · yr −1 ), primarily because of the greater stem density. Portions of this wetland continue to deteriorate after more than 30 years of thermal loading.

Wetlands↗

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

Climate Dynamics↗

Permafrost hydrology drives the assimilation of old carbon by stream food webs in the Arctic

Permafrost thaw in the Arctic is mobilizing old carbon (C) from soils to aquatic ecosystems and the atmosphere. Little is known, however, about the assimilation of old C by aquatic food webs in Arctic watersheds. Here, we used C isotopes (δ 13 C, Δ 14 C) to quantify C assimilation by biota across 12 streams in arctic Alaska. Streams spanned watersheds with varying permafrost hydrology, from ice-poor bedrock to ice-rich loess (that is, yedoma). We measured isotopic content of (1) C sources including dissolved organic C (DOC), dissolved inorganic C (DIC), and soil C, and (2) stream biota, including benthic biofilm and macroinvertebrates, and resident fish species (Arctic Grayling ( Thymallus arcticus ) and Dolly Varden ( Salvelinus malma )). Findings document the assimilation of old C by stream biota, with depleted Δ 14 C values observed at multiple trophic levels, including benthic biofilm ( 14 C ages = 5255 to 265 years before present (y BP)), macroinvertebrates (4490 y BP to modern), and fish (3195 y BP to modern). Mixing model results indicate that DOC and DIC contribute to benthic biofilm composition, with relative contributions differing across streams draining ice-poor and ice-rich terrain. DOC originates primarily from old terrestrial C sources, including deep peat horizons (39–47%; 530 y BP) and near-surface permafrost (12–19%; 5490 y BP). DOC also accounts for approximately half of fish isotopic composition. Analyses suggest that as the contribution of old C to fish increases, fish growth and nutritional status decline. We anticipate increases in old DOC delivery to streams under projected warming, which may further alter food web function in Arctic watersheds.

Alaska↗

Groundwater's significance to changing hydrology, water chemistry, and biological communities of a floodplain ecosystem, Everglades, South Florida, USA

The Everglades (Florida, USA) is one of the world's larger subtropical peatlands with biological communities adapted to waters low in total dissolved solids and nutrients. Detecting how the pre-drainage hydrological system has been altered is crucial to preserving its functional attributes. However, reliable tools for hindcasting historic conditions in the Everglades are limited. A recent synthesis demonstrates that the proportion of surface-water inflows has increased relative to precipitation, accounting for 33% of total inputs compared with 18% historically. The largest new source of water is canal drainage from areas of former wetlands converted to agriculture. Interactions between groundwater and surface water have also increased, due to increasing vertical hydraulic gradients resulting from topographic and water-level alterations on the otherwise extremely flat landscape. Environmental solute tracer data were used to determine groundwater's changing role, from a freshwater storage reservoir that sustained the Everglades ecosystem during dry periods to a reservoir of increasingly degraded water quality. Although some of this degradation is attributable to increased discharge of deep saline groundwater, other mineral sources such as fertilizer additives and peat oxidation have made a greater contribution to water-quality changes that are altering mineral-sensitive biological communities. ?? Springer-Verlag 2008.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

Uranium isotopes (234U/238U) in rivers of the Yukon Basin (Alaska and Canada) as an aid in identifying water sources, with implications for monitoring hydrologic change in arctic regions

The ability to detect hydrologic variation in large arctic river systems is of major importance in understanding and predicting effects of climate change in high-latitude environments. Monitoring uranium isotopes ( 234 U and 238 U) in river water of the Yukon River Basin of Alaska and northwestern Canada (2001–2005) has enhanced the ability to identify water sources to rivers, as well as detect flow changes that have occurred over the 5-year study. Uranium isotopic data for the Yukon River and major tributaries (the Porcupine and Tanana rivers) identify several sources that contribute to river flow, including: deep groundwater, seasonally frozen river-valley alluvium groundwater, and high-elevation glacial melt water. The main-stem Yukon River exhibits patterns of uranium isotopic variation at several locations that reflect input from ice melt and shallow groundwater in the spring, as well as a multi-year pattern of increased variability in timing and relative amount of water supplied from higher elevations within the basin. Results of this study demonstrate both the utility of uranium isotopes in revealing sources of water in large river systems and of incorporating uranium isotope analysis in long-term monitoring of arctic river systems that attempt to assess the effects of climate change.

Yukon Basin↗