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Porphyry copper assessment of northeast Asia: Far East Russia and northeasternmost China: Chapter W in Global mineral resource assessment

The U.S. Geological Survey assesses resources (mineral, energy, water, environmental, and biologic) at regional, national, and global scales to provide science in support of land management and decision making. Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about where mineral deposits are known and suspected to be in the Earth’s crust, which commodities may be present, and estimates of amounts of resources in undiscovered deposits. A probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered resources associated with porphyry copper deposits in northeast Asia—composed mainly of Far East Russia and a small part of northeasternmost China—was completed as part of a global mineral resource assessment. Porphyry copper deposits are the main source of copper globally. Russia is an important source of copper, consistently ranking as 6th, 7th, or 8th in world production since 2000, and ranked 7th in 2014. Most of this production has been from magmatic copper-nickel-platinum-group element, volcanogenic massive sulfide, and sediment-hosted copper deposit types. The purpose of the assessment was to (1) compile a database of known deposits and significant prospects, (2) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits that may be present in the upper kilometer of the Earth’s crust, and (3) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in the tracts. The assessment was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in collaboration with geologists from the Russian Academy of Sciences and industry consultants. The database of known deposits, significant prospects, and prospects includes an inventory of mineral resources in two known porphyry copper deposits, as well as key characteristics derived from available exploration reports for 70 significant porphyry copper prospects and 86 other prospects. Resource and exploration and development activity are updated with information current through February 2013.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

The effects of mixotrophy on the stability and dynamics of a simple planktonic food web

Recognition of the microbial loop as an important part of aquatic ecosystems disrupted the notion of simple linear food chains. However, current research suggests that even the microbial loop paradigm is a gross simplification of microbial interactions due to the presence of mixotrophs—organisms that both photosynthesize and graze. We present a simple food web model with four trophic species, three of them arranged in a food chain (nutrients–autotrophs–herbivores) and the fourth as a mixotroph with links to both the nutrients and the autotrophs. This model is used to study the general implications of inclusion of the mixotrophic link in microbial food webs and the specific predictions for a parameterization that describes open ocean mixed layer plankton dynamics. The analysis indicates that the system parameters reside in a region of the parameter space where the dynamics converge to a stable equilibrium rather than displaying periodic or chaotic solutions. However, convergence requires weeks to months, suggesting that the system would never reach equilibrium in the ocean due to alteration of the physical forcing regime. Most importantly, the mixotrophic grazing link seems to stabilize the system in this region of the parameter space, particularly when nutrient recycling feedback loops are included.

Theoretical Population Biology↗

The impacts of mangrove range expansion on wetland ecosystem services in the southeastern United States: Current understanding, knowledge gaps, and emerging research needs

Climate change is transforming ecosystems and affecting ecosystem goods and services. Along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme freeze events greatly influences whether coastal wetlands are dominated by freeze-sensitive woody plants (mangrove forests) or freeze-tolerant grass-like plants (salt marshes). In response to warming winters, mangroves have been expanding and displacing salt marshes at varying degrees of severity in parts of north Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. As winter warming accelerates, mangrove range expansion is expected to increasingly modify wetland ecosystem structure and function. Because there are differences in the ecological and societal benefits that salt marshes and mangroves provide, coastal environmental managers are challenged to anticipate effects of mangrove expansion on critical wetland ecosystem services, including those related to carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, storm protection, erosion reduction, water purification, fisheries support, and recreation. Mangrove range expansion may also affect wetland stability in the face of extreme climatic events and rising sea levels. Here, we review current understanding of the effects of mangrove range expansion and displacement of salt marshes on wetland ecosystem services in the southeastern United States. We also identify critical knowledge gaps and emerging research needs regarding the ecological and societal implications of salt marsh displacement by expanding mangrove forests. One consistent theme throughout our review is that there are ecological trade-offs for consideration by coastal managers. Mangrove expansion and marsh displacement can produce beneficial changes in some ecosystem services, while simultaneously producing detrimental changes in other services. Thus, there can be local-scale differences in perceptions of the impacts of mangrove expansion into salt marshes. For very specific local reasons, some individuals may see mangrove expansion as a positive change to be embraced, while others may see mangrove expansion as a negative change to be constrained.

Global Change Biology↗

Re-colonization by common eiders Somateria mollissima in the Aleutian Archipelago following removal of introduced arctic foxes Vulpes lagopus

Islands provide refuges for populations of many species where they find safety from predators, but the introduction of predators frequently results in elimination or dramatic reductions in island-dwelling organisms. When predators are removed, re-colonization for some species occurs naturally, and inter-island phylogeographic relationships and current movement patterns can illuminate processes of colonization. We studied a case of re-colonization of common eiders Somateria mollissima following removal of introduced arctic foxes Vulpes lagopus in the Aleutian Archipelago, Alaska. We expected common eiders to resume nesting on islands cleared of foxes and to re-colonize from nearby islets, islands, and island groups. We thus expected common eiders to show limited genetic structure indicative of extensive mixing among island populations. Satellite telemetry was used to record current movement patterns of female common eiders from six islands across three island groups. We collected genetic data from these and other nesting common eiders at 14 microsatellite loci and the mitochondrial DNA control region to examine population genetic structure, historical fluctuations in population demography, and gene flow. Our results suggest recent interchange among islands. Analysis of microsatellite data supports satellite telemetry data of increased dispersal of common eiders to nearby areas and little between island groups. Although evidence from mtDNA is suggestive of female dispersal among island groups, gene flow is insufficient to account for recolonization and rapid population growth. Instead, near-by remnant populations of common eiders contributed substantially to population expansion, without which re-colonization would have likely occurred at a much lower rate. Genetic and morphometric data of common eiders within one island group two and three decades after re-colonization suggests reduced movement of eiders among islands and little movement between island groups after populations were re-established. We predict that re-colonization of an island group where all common eiders are extirpated could take decades.

Alaska↗

The risk of rodent introductions from shipwrecks to seabirds on Aleutian and Bering Sea islands

Accidental introductions of rodents present one of the greatest threats to indigenous island biota, especially seabirds. On uninhabited remote islands, such introductions are likely to come from shipwrecks. Here we use a comprehensive database of shipwrecks in Western Alaska to model the frequency of shipwrecks per Aleutian and Bering Sea island, taken as a proxy for the threat of rodent introductions, using physical variables, and the intensity of nearby fishing traffic and activity as predictors. Using data spanning from 1950 to 2013, we found that shipwrecks were particularly common in the 1980s to early 2000s, with a major peak in wrecks during the late 1980s. Amount of fishing activity within 5 km of an island was the strongest predictor of shipwrecks, followed by the strength of tidal currents and density of large-vessel traffic. Islands with the highest frequency of shipwrecks are all in the eastern Aleutians, including Unimak, Unalaska, and Akun Islands. By contrast, the largest seabird colonies are in the western Aleutian and Pribilof Islands, including Buldir, Kiska, and Saint George islands. Multiplying the frequency of a shipwreck by the number of seabirds breeding per island provides a measure of risk. The risk of rodent introductions from shipwrecks to seabirds was then greatest for Saint George (Bering Sea), Buldir (Western Aleutians) and Saint Matthew islands (Bering Sea). Keeping these high-risk islands rodent free would maintain their high a conservation value. Most islands with a high predicted frequency of shipwrecks already have established rodent populations and therefore few remaining seabirds. Of those islands with established rodent populations, Attu and Kiska Islands would make suitable targets for eradication, given their relatively low expected frequency of shipwrecks for their size. Further improvements in rat prevention on vessels and shipping safety would benefit the economy, human health and safety, and to the long-term conservation of island ecosystems.

Alaska↗

Living with uncertainty: Using multi-model large ensembles to assess emperor penguin extinction risk for the IUCN Red List

Improved methods for identifying species at risk are needed to strengthen climate change vulnerability assessments, as current estimates indicate that up to one million species face extinction due to environmental changes. Integrating multiple sources of uncertainty enhances the robustness of Red List of Threatened Species assessments, providing a more comprehensive understanding of species’ risks. We present a comprehensive framework that incorporates uncertainties, including measurement error, structural uncertainty, natural variability, future climate emissions scenario, and extreme events of sea ice loss, to evaluate the extinction risk of the emperor penguin ( Aptenodytes forsteri ), currently classified as Near-Threatened. We apply three ecological models, one bioclimatic and two metapopulation models, combined with a multi-model large ensemble (MMLE) of climate projections from general circulation models, to conduct a Red List evaluation at both global, regional and colony levels. Our results show that emperor penguins could be classified under a range of Red List categories depending on the ecological model, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate emissions scenario, and extreme event frequency. Under Criterion A, global classifications vary from Vulnerable to Critically Endangered. Severe declines are projected in the Indian and East Pacific sectors, Dronning Maud Land and the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea, with Criterion E indicating that 24% to 100% of colonies meet Endangered status thresholds, depending on huddling thresholds and ecological models. This study represents the first application of an MMLE coupled with an ecological ensemble approach to project climate change impacts on a species, capturing a comprehensive range of uncertainties and offering a framework for improving forecasting and decision-making under climate change.

Biological Conservation↗

Understanding interaction effects of climate change and fire management on bird distributions through combined process and habitat models

Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process-based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail ( Callipepla squamata ), Loggerhead Shrike ( Lanius ludovicianus ), and Rock Wren ( Salpinctes obsoletus ), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo ( Fouquieria splendens ) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf-area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species' use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.

Chihuahuan Desert↗

Ecological assessment of wadeable streams on O`ahu, Hawai'i, 2006-2007: A pilot study

In 2006–07, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Pacific Islands Water Science Center (PIWSC), in cooperation with the Hawai‘i Department of Health (HDOH), conducted a pilot study as a participant in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (USEPA) Wadeable Streams Assessment (WSA) program. Forty randomly selected sites on perennial streams on O‘ahu, Hawai‘i, were surveyed for habitat characteristics, water chemistry, and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages. Of the original sampling frame of approximately 505.2 miles of perennial stream, roughly 96.7±30.7 miles were found to be nonperennial or estuarine and another 200.5±64.7 miles were judged to be inaccessible. The scope of this report presents an assessment of the remaining 208±57.6 miles of accessible, wadeable, perennial stream length on O‘ahu. Benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages were used to determine the ecological condition at each site. Components of the benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages were assessed using the multimetric Preliminary–Hawaiian Benthic Index of Biotic Integrity (P–HBIBI) developed by Wolff (2005). Based on the P–HBIBI scores, an estimated 5.8±5.8 percent of the island’s total stream length is in most disturbed condition, 56±13.5 percent is in intermediately disturbed condition, and 38.2±13.2 percent is in least disturbed condition. Windward O‘ahu had the highest percentage of stream length in least disturbed biological condition at 56.7±20.8 percent. Using the relative abundance of insects, one of the core metrics that make up the P–HBIBI, 43.4±14.2 percent of the islandwide stream length was classified in the most disturbed condition—52±31.2 percent of the Honolulu region stream length and 51.4±23.3 percent of the windward O‘ahu stream length. An analysis of total nitrogen (N) estimated approximately 41.1±13.7 percent of the stream length on O‘ahu was in most disturbed condition. Regionally, the Honolulu region had the largest proportion, 61.3±28.6 percent, of most disturbed stream length in terms of total N. An analysis of total phosphorus (P) classified approximately 43.2±14 percent of the stream length on O‘ahu as most disturbed. Regionally, windward O‘ahu had the largest proportion, 78.4±19.5 percent, of stream length classified as most disturbed. An analysis of embeddedness classified 30.3±14.7 percent of O‘ahu’s stream length as most. Regionally, windward O‘ahu had the largest proportion, 43.3±17.1 percent, of stream length classified as most disturbed as compared to the reference condition. An analysis of riparian disturbance, an index of the in-channel, riparian, and near-stream human activities, classified 43±13 percent of stream length on O‘ahu as most disturbed. The Honolulu region had the largest proportion of stream length, 86.3±13.7 percent, classified as most disturbed. The information in this report is the first attempt in Hawai‘i to assess the islandwide ecological condition of wadeable, perennial streams on O‘ahu using the USEPA WSA probabilistic design. This study has demonstrated that such an assessment is practical and that it can provide information that may help the USEPA and HDOH in determining the status of aquatic ecosystems on O‘ahu, Hawai‘i. This study provides a baseline assessment of the current islandwide ecological condition and identifies potential environmental stressors. It can be used, with future WSA studies in Hawai‘i, to measure the changes in those conditions and the effectiveness of management efforts to protect, restore, and maintain Hawai‘i’s aquatic environment.

Hawaii↗

Characterization of the exoskeleton of the Antarctic king crab Paralomis birsteini

Ocean acidification is projected to inhibit the biogenic production of calcium-carbonate skeletons in marine organisms. Antarctic waters represent a natural environment in which to examine the long-term effects of carbonate undersaturation on calcification in marine predators. King crabs (Decapoda: Anomura: Lithodidae), which currently inhabit the undersaturated environment of the continental slope off Antarctica, are potential invasives on the Antarctic shelf as oceanic temperatures rise. Here, we describe the chemical, physical, and mechanical properties of the exoskeleton of the deep-water Antarctic lithodid Paralomis birsteini and compare our measurements with two decapod species from shallow water at lower latitudes: Cancer borealis (Brachyura: Cancridae) and Callinectes sapidus (Brachyura: Portunidae). Paralomis birsteini deposit proportionally more calcium carbonate in their predatory chelae than their protective carapaces, compared with the other two crab species. When exoskeleton thickness and microhardness were compared between the chelae and carapace, the magnitude of the difference between these body regions was significantly greater in P. birsteini than in the other species tested. Hence, there appeared to be a greater disparity in P. birsteini in overall investment in calcium-carbonate structures among regions of the exoskeleton. The imperatives of prey consumption and predator avoidance may be influencing the deposition of calcium to different parts of the exoskeleton in lithodids living in an environment undersaturated with respect to calcium carbonate.

Invertebrate Biology↗

Birds of the St. Croix River valley: Minnesota and Wisconsin

The St. Croix River Valley encompasses nearly 11,550 km2 in east-central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. A wide range of habitats are available for birds including upland oak, lowland deciduous, maple-basswood, lowland and upland coniferous forests, natural basin wetlands, and grasslands. Situated in the north-central region of the United States, the valley is a biological 'crossroads' for many species. Because of the mixed affinities of plant communities, the valley includes the northern and southern range limits for a number of species. Also, because the valley lies near the forest-prairie transition zone, many typical western breeding species (e.g. pintail, western meadowlark, yellow-headed blackbird) breed in proximity to typical eastern species such as tufted titmouse, eastern meadowlark, and cardinal. From 1966 to 1980, I conducted extensive surveys of avian distribution and abundance in the St. Croix River Valley. I have supplemented the results of these surveys with published and unpublished observations contributed by many ornithologists. These additional data include compilations from Christmas Bird Counts sponsored by the National Audubon Society and from the Breeding Bird Survey coordinated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Three hundred fourteen species have been recorded in the study area; data are presented on the migration period, nesting season distribution, winter distribution, relative abundance, and habitat use of each species. Recognizing the uniqueness of the area, and its importance not only to wildlife but also to man, the U.S. Congress designated the St. Croix a National Scenic Riverway. This action provided a considerable degree of protection to lands along and directly adjacent to the river. Unfortunately, no similar legal measure exists to protect lands away from the river. With the exception of the northern quarter of the St. Croix River Valley, agricultural interests have made significant inroads into the habitat base. The continuing expansion of the nearby Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan region has degraded or destroyed many woodlots, upland fields, and wetlands. In numerous instances, degradation of natural habitats has influenced the abundance and distribution of bird species. Because of these changes, both the Federal government and State Departments of Natural Resources have listed several species in various categories based on their current status. In the St. Croix River Valley, seven species are endangered, eight are threatened, and 29 are watch or priority status in either or both states. Data presented in this report are of value to land managers, land use specialists, and ornithologists, in assessing current and projected habitat alterations on the avifauna of this valley. The St. Croix River bisects a large region of western Wisconsin and east central Minnesota that exhibits a wide range of habitat types. This region supports not only birds, but many mammals, fishes, reptiles and amphibians, and several thousand species of vascular and nonvascular plants. The river itself is relatively clean through most of its course, and its natural flow is interrupted by only two small dams. Because the river lies within a 1-day drive of nearly 10 million people (Waters 1977), use of the area for recreational purposes is extremely heavy. Recreational pursuits include sunbathing, boating, and wild river kayaking in the summer, and ice fishing and cross-country skiing in the winter. The large number of unique and highly fragile habitats that exist there may never be compatible with the uses and abuses of the land that go with expanding human populations. Through the efforts of a number of citizens concerned with the quality of their environment and the foresightedness of several local, State, and Federal legislators, a portion of the upper St. Croix River Valley (hereafter termed 'the Valley') was established as a National Wild and Scenic River. Through establishment of t

North American Fauna↗

The anatomy of a (potential) disaster: Volcanoes, behavior, and population viability of the short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus)

Catastrophic events, either from natural (e.g., hurricane) or human-induced (e.g., forest clear-cut) processes, are a well-known threat to wild populations. However, our lack of knowledge about population-level effects of catastrophic events has inhibited the careful examination of how catastrophes affect population growth and persistence. For the critically endangered short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus), episodic volcanic eruptions are considered a serious catastrophic threat since approximately 80% of the global population of ???2500 birds (in 2006) currently breeds on an active volcano, Torishima Island. We evaluated how short-tailed albatross population persistence is affected by the catastrophic threat of a volcanic eruption relative to chronic threats. We also provide an example for overcoming the seemingly overwhelming problems created by modelling the population dynamics of a species with limited demographic data by incorporating uncertainty in our analysis. As such, we constructed a stochastic age-based matrix model that incorporated both catastrophic mortality due to volcanic eruptions and chronic mortality from several potential sources (e.g., contaminant exposure, fisheries bycatch) to determine the relative effects of these two types of threats on short-tailed albatross population growth and persistence. Modest increases (1%) in chronic (annual) mortality had a 2.5-fold greater effect on predicted short-tailed albatross stochastic population growth rate (lambda) than did the occurrence of periodic volcanic eruptions that follow historic eruption frequencies (annual probability of eruption 2.2%). Our work demonstrates that periodic catastrophic volcanic eruptions, despite their dramatic nature, are less likely to affect the population viability and recovery of short-tailed albatross than low-level chronic mortality. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Biological Conservation↗

Using motion-sensor camera technology to infer seasonal activity and thermal niche of the desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii )

Understanding the relationships between environmental variables and wildlife activity is an important part of effective management. The desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ), an imperiled species of arid environments in the southwest US, may have increasingly restricted windows for activity due to current warming trends. In summer 2013, we deployed 48 motion sensor cameras at the entrances of tortoise burrows to investigate the effects of temperature, sex, and day of the year on the activity of desert tortoises. Using generalized estimating equations, we found that the relative probability of activity was associated with temperature (linear and quadratic), sex, and day of the year. Sex effects showed that male tortoises are generally more active than female tortoises. Temperature had a quadratic effect, indicating that tortoise activity was heightened at a range of temperatures. In addition, we found significant support for interactions between sex and day of the year, and sex and temperature as predictors of the probability of activity. Using our models, we were able to estimate air temperatures and times (days and hours) that were associated with maximum activity during the study. Because tortoise activity is constrained by environmental conditions such as temperature, it is increasingly vital to conduct studies on how tortoises vary their activity throughout the Sonoran Desert to better understand the effects of a changing climate.

California↗

America's most wanted fishes: Cataloging risk assessments to prioritize invasive species for management action

Hundreds of fish species enter the United States through human intervention (e.g., importation) and some of these fishes pose a substantial risk to the nation’s assets and ecosystems. Prevention, early detection, and rapid response (EDRR) are vital to stop species invasions, but time and resources to manage the large suite of fish species that enter the nation are limited. Evaluating the risk of a species’ invasion in a location is one way to prioritize among many species for management action. Species risk assessments are often associated with information systems or are published within grey literature or peer-reviewed journal articles. Improving access to available risk assessments could help in prioritizing management action for the most potentially invasive fish species. We aggregated fish species risk assessments, synthesizing the current knowledge on the risk of fish invasions in the United States. To accomplish this, we searched information systems and conducted a literature review. We then summarized risk assessment results along with the importation statuses of fish species and identified if imported, high-risk species are managed under federal or state policy. Within the scope of the conterminous U.S., we found 98 high-risk fish species. Eighteen of these species are imported to the country, but only three species have been recently prohibited from importation according to the Lacey Act. We observed similar patterns at the scales of the Great Lakes region and Florida. Collectively, our work provides a baseline estimate of the high-risk fish invaders that enter the U.S. through importation, underscoring species to consider for priority management action, as well as a benchmark of species that lack risk assessments. Insights from this work can be enriched when joined with other invasive species information, which could be accomplished through a national EDRR information system, an information sharing hub in development by the U.S. Geological Survey.

Management of Biological Invasions↗

Evaluation of a method using survey counts and tag data to estimate the number of Pacific walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) using a coastal haulout in northwestern Alaska

Increased periods of sparse sea ice over the continental shelf of the Chukchi Sea in late summer have reduced offshore haulout habitat for Pacific walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) and increased opportunities for human activities in the region. Knowing how many walruses could be affected by human activities would be useful to conservation decisions. Currently, there are no adequate estimates of walrus abundance in the northeastern Chukchi Sea during summer–early autumn. Estimating abundance in autumn might be possible from coastal surveys of hauled out walruses during periods when offshore sea ice is unavailable to walruses. We evaluated methods to estimate the size of the walrus population that was using a haulout on the coast of northwestern Alaska in autumn by using aerial photography to count the number of hauled out walruses (herd size) and data from 37 tagged walruses to estimate availability (proportion of population hauled out). We used two methods to estimate availability, direct proportions of hauled out tagged walruses and smoothed proportions using local polynomial regression. Point estimates of herd size (4200–38,000 walruses) and total population size (76,000–287,000 walruses) ranged widely among days and between the two methods of estimating availability. Estimates of population size were influenced most by variation in estimates of availability. Coastal surveys might be improved most by counting walruses when the greatest numbers are hauled out, thereby reducing the influence of availability on population size estimates. The chance of collecting data during peak haulout periods would be improved by conducting multiple surveys.

Polar Biology↗

Delayed herbivory by migratory geese increases summer‐long CO2 uptake in coastal western Alaska

The advancement of spring and the differential ability of organisms to respond to changes in plant phenology may lead to ‘phenological mismatches’ as a result of climate change. One potential for considerable mismatch is between migratory birds and food availability in northern breeding ranges and these mismatches may have consequences for ecosystem function. We conducted a three‐year experiment to examine the consequences for CO 2 exchange of advanced spring green‐up and altered timing of grazing by migratory Pacific black brant in a coastal wetland in western Alaska. Experimental treatments represent the variation in green‐up and timing of peak grazing intensity that currently exists in the system. Delayed grazing resulted in greater net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) while early grazing reduced CO 2 uptake with the potential of causing net ecosystem carbon (C) loss in late spring and early summer. Conversely, advancing the growing season only influenced ecosystem respiration (ER), resulting in a small increase in ER with no concomitant impact on GPP or NEE. The experimental treatment that represents the most likely future, with green‐up advancing more rapidly than arrival of migratory geese, results in NEE changing by 1.2 μmol m −2 s −1 toward a greater CO 2 sink in spring and summer. Increased sink strength, however, may be mitigated by early arrival of migratory geese, which would reduce CO 2 uptake. Importantly, while the direct effect of climate warming on phenology of green‐up has a minimal influence on NEE, the indirect effect of climate warming manifest through changes in the timing of peak grazing can have a significant impact on C balance in northern coastal wetlands. Furthermore, processes influencing the timing of goose migration in the winter range can significantly influence ecosystem function in summer habitats.

Alaska↗

Potential effects of energy development on environmental resources of the Williston Basin in Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota—Executive summary

Executive Summary The Williston Basin, which includes parts of Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota in the United States and parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in Canada, has been explored as a potential source of energy resources since the early 20th century; however, commercially viable petroleum drilling and recovery began in earnest in the 1950s. When oil prices rose in the mid-1980s, the number of wells also increased and then subsequently declined. Interest in the Williston Basin increased again in the mid-2000s with the application of new drilling technology. Since then, development has increased rather quickly. Most of this new development has been facilitated by advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies. The North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources reported an increase of more than 10,000 producing wells between 2000 and the spring of 2016. In total, 84 percent of those 10,000 wells target the Bakken Formation, which is now home to one of the Nation’s largest energy booms. Current estimates suggest that exploration and drilling activities are expected to continue for the next 20 to 50 years; however, future activity will likely ebb and flow in response to energy prices. Although most energy has been developed on non-Federal property, more than 2,000 wells were started on federally managed lands in the three States that contain the Williston Basin between 2004 and 2015, though these numbers do not reflect whether or not these wells targeted the Bakken Formation. Executive Order no. 13604 (March 22, 2012) directs Federal agencies to improve the timeliness of the permitting process for extracting publically owned minerals, while minimizing negative environmental effects. This means that Federal agencies need information about how energy development may affect other resources they are tasked with managing. One example of where information about potential effects of development may be useful is the Bureau of Land Management’s permitting process. Permits may include stipulations or special conditions that limit unforeseen negative consequences or ameliorate potential conflicts of future development. Federal agencies also need to coordinate permitting actions to ensure that development complies with existing regulations (for example, the Endangered Species Act [16 U.S.C. § 1531 et seq.] or the National Environmental Protection Act [42 U.S.C. § 4321 et seq.]) without unnecessarily restricting or delaying development. Part of this coordination entails agreeing on the information that will be used to assess the potential effects of energy development, which should also improve efficiency of the permitting process. Within the Williston Basin, a group of Federal agencies called the Bakken Federal Executive Group is developing coordination strategies for numerous energy-related issues on Federal lands. This report was developed in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management to provide them with the best available scientific information to support documentation of potential effects on resources that Federal agencies manage. This report summarizes information about the effects of energy development on air, water, and biological resources within the U.S. part of the Williston Basin. The topics discussed in the report were based on a prioritized list of information needs elicited from the Bakken Federal Executive Group. The list was developed using a process known as structured decision making or decision analysis. This process began with an initial scoping workshop to determine the range of decisions made by those involved directly in managing energy development and resources on public land. U.S. Geological Survey staff then developed a simple quantitative ranking tool to assess which information needs were of greatest importance to those decisions.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

Avian species richness in different-aged stands of riparian forest along the middle Rio Grande, New Mexico

Riparian forests are important for maintaining vertebrate species richness in the southwestern United States, but they have become restricted in distribution due to both historical and current management practices. In order to counteract continued loss of this habitat, several mitigation programs were developed in the middle Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico. Three areas ranging from 50 to 140 ha were revegetated with native trees using pole planting and cattle exclosures, and changes in vegetation structure were quantified after 2, 3, and 5 years of growth. As expected, the older site contained the most heterogeneous mix of plant species and the greatest structural diversity. We compared year-round avian use of the revegetated sites with a mature cottonwood forest site of approximately 30 years of age. As the revegetated sites matured and salient habitat features changed, the population dynamics of individual avian species and patterns of guild structure varied. The older revegetated sites showed a greater similarity to the mature cottonwood site, suggesting that reclamation efforts established quality riparian habitats for birds in as little as 5 years. The revegetated sites appeared especially important for Neotropical-migrant birds. We suggest that a mosaic of riparian woodlands containing mixtures of native tree and shrub species of different size classes is necessary to maintain avian species richness in the middle Rio Grande drainage, and probably throughout the southwestern United States.

New Mexico↗

Ecological assessment of streams in the Powder River Structural Basin, Wyoming and Montana, 2005-06

Energy and mineral development, particularly coalbed natural gas development, is proceeding at a rapid pace in the Powder River Structural Basin (PRB) in northeastern Wyoming. Concerns about the potential effects of development led to formation of an interagency working group of primarily Federal and State agencies to address these issues in the PRB in Wyoming and in Montana where similar types of resources exist but are largely undeveloped. Under the direction of the interagency working group, an ecological assessment of streams in the PRB was initiated to determine the current status (2005–06) and to establish a baseline for future monitoring. The ecological assessment components include assessment of stream habitat and riparian zones as well as assessments of macroinvertebrate, algal, and fish communities. All of the components were sampled at 47 sites in the PRB during 2005. A reduced set of components, consisting primarily of macroinvertebrate and fish community assessments, was sampled in 2006. Related ecological data, such as habitat and fish community data collected from selected sites in 2004, also are included in this report. The stream habitat assessment included measurement of channel features, substrate size and embeddedness, riparian vegetation, and reachwide characteristics. The width-to-depth ratio (bankfull width/bankfull depth) tended to be higher at sites on the main-stem Powder River than at sites on the main-stem Tongue River and at sites on tributary streams. The streambed substrate particle size was largest at sites on the main-stem Tongue River and smallest at sites on small tributary streams such as Squirrel Creek and Otter Creek. Total vegetative cover at the ground level, understory, and canopy layers ranged from less than 40 percent at a few sites to more than 90 percent at many of the sites. A bank-stability index indicated that sites in the Tongue River drainage were less at risk of bank failure than sites on the main-stem Powder River. Macroinvertebrate communities showed similarity at the river-drainage scale. Macroinvertebrate communities at sites with mountainous headwaters and snowmelt-driven hydrology, such as Clear Creek, Crazy Woman Creek, and Goose Creek, showed similarity with communities from the main-stem Tongue River. The data also indicated similarity among sites on the main-stem Powder River and among small tributaries of the Tongue River. Data analyses using macroinvertebrate observed/expected models and multimetric indices developed by the States of Wyoming and Montana indicated a tendency toward declining biological condition in the downstream direction along the Tongue River. Biological condition for the main-stem Powder River generally improved downstream, from below Salt Creek to near the Wyoming/Montana border, followed by a general decline downstream from the border to the confluence with the Yellowstone River. The biological condition generally was not significantly different between 2005 and 2006, although streamflow was less in 2006 because of drought. Algal communities showed similarity at the river-drainage scale with slight differences from the pattern observed in the macroinvertebrate communities. Although the algal communities from Clear Creek and Goose Creek were similar to those from the main-stem Tongue River, as was true of the macroinvertebrate communities, the algal communities from Crazy Woman Creek had more similarity to those of main-stem Powder River sites than to the Tongue River sites, contrary to the macroinvertebrates. Ordination of algal communities, as well as diatom metrics including salinity and dominant taxa, indicated substantial variation at two sites along the main stem of the Powder River. Fish communities of the PRB were most diverse in the Tongue River drainage. In part due to the effects of Tongue River Reservoir, 15 species of fish were found in the Tongue River drainage that were not found in the Cheyenne, Belle Fourche, or Little Powder River drainages. The number of introduced species and relative abundance of introduced species of fish were higher in the Tongue River and other drainages than at sites on the main-stem Powder River. Although non-native species were identified in the Powder River, the native fish community is largely intact. Western silvery minnow and sturgeon chub—species of special concern—were identified only at sites on the main-stem Powder River and were most common in the Montana segment of the main stem. Fish and habitat sampling on the main-stem Powder River indicated affinity of some species for certain habitats such as pools, runs, riffles, backwaters, or shoals.

Montana, Wyoming↗