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Porphyry copper assessment of western Central Asia

The U.S. Geological Survey conducted an assessment of resources associated with porphyry copper deposits in the western Central Asia countries of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan and the southern Urals of Kazakhstan and Russia as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The purpose of the study was to (1) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits; (2) compile a database of known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects; (3) where data permit, estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within those permissive tracts; and (4) provide probabilistic estimates the amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in those undiscovered deposits. Western Central Asia, a region diverse in its geologic complexity, is situated north of the Tarim and North China tectonic blocks and sandwiched between the East European and Siberian cratons. The Ural Mountains form the western margin of the region; the southern margin is formed by the high-standing ranges that make up the Tian Shan mountain range in the border regions of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and western China, where the effects of collisional tectonics are well displayed. The tectonic collage that makes up the core of western Central Asia is perhaps the geologically least understood part of the region. There is broad agreement that the early Paleozoic is made up of tectonically juxtaposed blocks that vary from Precambrian-cored microcontinents to magmatic arc and related complexes to subduction-related accretionary complexes. The rudiments of an incipient, contiguous single Kazakhstan block were formed by the end of the Silurian. In the middle to late Paleozoic, the block was unconformably superposed by two large, nested magmatic-arc belts, one Devonian, the other Carboniferous. Both magmatic-arc complexes were folded into a horseshoe-shaped, southeast-opening orocline in response to the final collisions of the various surrounding cratonic blocks with the Kazakhstan block. Additional deformation in the upper Cenozoic derived from the collision of India and China significantly redistributed fragments of the various mosaicked blocks, particularly in the central and southern parts of the western Central Asian region. Porphyry copper deposits are associated with many of the magmatic-arc fragments and belts throughout the geologically complex region, and economically important deposits are found in arc sequences of all Paleozoic Periods. The economically most productive arcs are Carboniferous. The assessment includes a discussion of the tectonic and geologic setting of porphyry copper deposits in western Central Asia (chapter 1), an application of remote sensing data for hydrothermal alteration mapping as a tool for porphyry copper assessment in the region (chapter 2), and a probabilistic assessment of undiscovered porphyry copper resources in four areas that represent Ordovician and Late Paleozoic (Carboniferous-Permian) magmatic arcs (chapter 3). The principal litho-tectonic terrane concept used to delineate permissive tracts was that of a magmatic arc that formed in the subduction boundary zone above a subducting plate. Eight permissive tracts are delineated on the basis of mapped and inferred subsurface distributions of igneous rocks assigned to magmatic arcs of specified age ranges that define areas where the occurrence of porphyry copper deposits within 1 kilometer of the Earth’s surface is possible. These tracts range in area from about 8,000 to 200,000 square kilometers and host 18 known porphyry copper deposits that contain about 54 million metric tons of copper. Available data included geologic maps, the distribution of significant porphyry copper occurrences and potentially related deposit types, the distribution of hydrothermal alteration patterns that are consistent with porphyry copper mineralization, and information on possible subsurface extensions of permissive rocks. On the basis of analyses of these data, the assessment team estimated a mean of 25 undiscovered porphyry copper deposits for the study area. Estimates of numbers of undiscovered deposits were combined with grade and tonnage models in a Monte Carlo simulation to yield a mean estimate of 95 million metric tons of copper in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits; this represents about twice the amount of identified porphyry copper resources (54 million metric tons). Detailed descriptions of each permissive tract, including the rationales for delineation and assessment, are given in appendixes, along with a geographic information system (GIS) that includes permissive tract boundaries, point locations of known porphyry copper deposits and significant occurrences, and hydrothermal alteration data based on analysis of remote sensing data.

Ural Mountains↗

Platinum-group elements in southern Africa: mineral inventory and an assessment of undiscovered mineral resources

The platinum-group elements, platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, and osmium, possess unique physical and chemical characteristics that make them indispensable to modern technology and industry. However, mineral deposits that are the main sources of these elements occur only in three countries in the world, raising concerns about potential disruption in mineral supply. Using information in the public domain, mineral resource and reserve information has been compiled for mafic and ultramafic rocks in South Africa and Zimbabwe that host most of the world’s platinum-group element resources. As of 2012, exploration and mining companies have delineated more than 20 billion metric tons of mineralized rock containing 42,000 metric tons of platinum, 29,000 metric tons of palladium, and 5,200 metric tons of rhodium, primarily in mafic and ultramafic intrusions of the Bushveld Complex and the Great Dyke, in southern Africa. Additional mineralized rock is likely to occur in extensions to the well-explored and characterized volumes of mineralized rock. Underexplored extensions of stratabound platinum-group element (PGE) deposits in the Bushveld Complex in South Africa may contain 65,000 metric tons of platinum, palladium, and rhodium to a depth of 3 km. Rocks enriched in PGE, which occur near the contact of the Bushveld Complex with older Transvaal Supergroup sedimentary rocks, may contain 1,100 metric tons of platinum and 1,370 metric tons of palladium (mean estimate to a depth of 1 km). A stratabound platinum-group element deposit in the Great Dyke in Zimbabwe may contain 6,900 metric tons of undiscovered platinum, palladium, and rhodium. By comparison, the global net demand for PGE in 2012 was approximately 460 metric tons. Since the 1920s, mining has recovered 7,200 and 107 metric tons of platinum-group elements from the Bushveld Complex and the Great Dyke, respectively. The large layered intrusions in southern Africa—the Bushveld Complex and the Great Dyke—are now and will continue to be a major source of the world’s supply of PGE. Mining will not deplete the identified mineral resources and reserves or potential undiscovered mineral resources for many decades; however, in the near-term, PGE supply could be affected by social, environmental, political, and economic factors.

Southern Africa↗

Sedimentology and reservoir heterogeneity of a valley-fill deposit– A field guide to the Dakota Sandstone of the San Rafael Swell, Utah

Valley-fill deposits form a significant class of hydrocarbon reservoirs in many basins of the world. Maximizing recovery of fluids from these reservoirs requires an understanding of the scales of fluid-flow heterogeneity present within the valley-fill system. The Upper Cretaceous Dakota Sandstone in the San Rafael Swell, Utah contains well exposed, relatively accessible outcrops that allow a unique view of the external geometry and internal complexity of a set of rocks interpreted to be deposits of an incised valley fill. These units can be traced on outcrop for tens of miles, and individual sandstone bodies are exposed in three dimensions because of modern erosion in side canyons in a semiarid setting and by exhumation of the overlying, easily erodible Mancos Shale. The Dakota consists of two major units: (1) a lower amalgamated sandstone facies dominated by large-scale cross stratification with several individual sandstone bodies ranging in thickness from 8 to 28 feet, ranging in width from 115 to 150 feet, and having lengths as much as 5,000 feet, and (2) an upper facies composed of numerous mud-encased lenticular sandstones, dominated by ripple-scale lamination, in bedsets ranging in thickness from 5 to 12 feet. The lower facies is interpreted to be fluvial, probably of mainly braided stream origin that exhibits multiple incisions amalgamated into a complex sandstone body. The upper facies has lower energy, probably anastomosed channels encased within alluvial and coastal-plain floodplain sediments. The Dakota valley-fill complex has multiple scales of heterogeneity that could affect fluid flow in similar oil and gas subsurface reservoirs. The largest scale heterogeneity is at the formation level, where the valley-fill complex is sealed within overlying and underlying units. Within the valley-fill complex, there are heterogeneities between individual sandstone bodies, and at the smallest scale, internal heterogeneities within the bodies themselves. These different scales of fluid-flow compartmentalization present a challenge to hydrocarbon exploration targeting paleovalley deposits, and producing fields containing these types of reservoirs may have significant bypassed pay, especially where well spacing is large.

Utah↗

Arsenic, chromium, uranium, and vanadium in rock, alluvium, and groundwater, Mojave River and Morongo Areas, western Mojave Desert, southern California

Trace elements within groundwater that originate from aquifer materials and pose potential public-health hazards if consumed are known as geogenic contaminants. The geogenic contaminants arsenic, chromium, and vanadium can form negatively charged ions with oxygen known as oxyanions. Uranium complexes with bicarbonate and carbonate to form negatively charged ions having aqueous chemistry similar to oxyanions. The concentrations of arsenic, chromium, uranium, and vanadium in groundwater result from the combined effects of (1) geologic abundance within aquifer materials; (2) the fraction of these elements that have weathered from and sorbed to the surfaces of mineral grains and are potentially available to groundwater; and (3) the aqueous chemistry of dissolved oxyanions in groundwater during different redox conditions and pH, both of which are affected by hydrogeology, including the length of time groundwater has been in contact with aquifer materials. Concentrations of arsenic, chromium, uranium, and vanadium were measured in samples of (1) rock, surficial alluvium, and drill cuttings using portable (handheld) X-ray fluorescence (pXRF); (2) operationally defined fractions extractable from these materials; and (3) water from wells sampled between 2000 and 2018 within the 3,500 square mile Mojave River area and Morongo area of the western Mojave Desert, southern California. Regionally, rock and surficial alluvium in the Mojave River and Morongo areas are high in arsenic, low in chromium and uranium, and near the average bulk continental crust concentration for vanadium. Locally, high chromium concentrations are present in mafic rock within the San Gabriel Mountains; high uranium concentrations are present in felsic rock within the San Bernardino Mountains; and high arsenic, uranium, and vanadium concentrations are present in extrusive (volcanic) felsic rock within uplands surrounding groundwater basins along the Mojave River downstream from Barstow, California. Elemental assemblages identified using principal component analyses (PCA) of pXRF data were used to characterize felsic, mafic, and felsic volcanic source terranes in rock, surficial alluvium, and in geologic material penetrated by selected monitoring wells drilled between 1994 and 2018. Highly felsic alluvium associated with recent deposition from the Mojave River was identified along the 90-mile length of the floodplain aquifer along the river. The thickness of these highly felsic alluvial deposits ranged from 200 feet (ft) near Victorville and near Barstow to a thin veneer about 30 ft thick downstream from Victorville and downstream portions of the floodplain aquifer within the Mojave Valley. Groundwater in the Mojave River and Morongo areas was generally oxic and alkaline (pH≥7.5). Maximum concentrations of arsenic, hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)], uranium, and vanadium in water from as many as 498 wells sampled between 2000 and 2018 were 360, 140, 1,470, and 690 micrograms per liter (μg/L), respectively. Water from 22 percent of sampled wells exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) maximum contaminant level (MCL) for arsenic of 10 μg/L, with arsenic concentrations commonly exceeding the MCL in water from wells east of Barstow, deep wells in the Victorville fan, and in suboxic or reduced groundwater within the floodplain aquifer. Water from about 1 percent of sampled wells had Cr(VI) concentrations greater than the California MCL for total chromium of 50 μg/L, whereas 13 percent of sampled wells had Cr(VI) concentrations greater than the former California MCL of 10 μg/L. Hexavalent chromium concentrations were highest in water from wells in the Sheep Creek alluvial fan, eroded from mafic rock in the San Gabriel Mountains, although Cr(VI) concentrations greater than the former California MCL also were present elsewhere in the study area where mafic materials or older groundwater were present. Water from about 9 percent of sampled wells exceeded the EPA MCL for uranium of 30 μg/L, with concentrations exceeding the MCL commonly associated with irrigation return from agricultural land overlying the floodplain aquifer. Water from about 7 percent of sampled wells had vanadium concentrations greater than the California notification level of 50 μg/L; most of these wells were in the Victorville fan within the Mojave River area. In general, arsenic concentrations were higher in suboxic or reduced water; chromium concentrations were higher in oxic, alkaline (pH≥7.5) water; uranium concentrations were higher in circumneutral to slightly alkaline water (pH≤7.4); and vanadium concentrations were higher in highly alkaline (pH≥8.0) water, independent of redox status. Concentrations within geologic source terranes are not the sole factor controlling the concentrations of geogenic elements in groundwater. Differences in mineral weathering, pH-dependent sorption to surface-exchange sites on mineral grains, and aqueous geochemistry (especially redox status and pH) affect geogenic element concentrations in groundwater. Consequently, the relative abundances of arsenic, Cr(VI), uranium, and vanadium in groundwater differ from their relative abundances in the average bulk continental crust and their regional abundances in rock and surficial alluvium within groundwater basins of the western Mojave Desert. Processes that control the concentrations of arsenic, chromium, uranium, and vanadium in groundwater operate at the mineral-grain and aquifer scale. At the mineral-grain scale, sequential chemical extraction data show arsenic and uranium are more available to groundwater (under specific geochemical conditions) than chromium or vanadium, which largely are unavailable within unweathered mineral grains. Additionally, chromium and vanadium form few aqueous complexes and bind tightly with iron minerals within surface coatings on mineral grains making them less available to groundwater, whereas complexation with other dissolved ions enhances the solubility of uranium and, to a lesser extent, arsenic. Complexation also increases the valence (less negative charge) and increases the size of dissolved oxyanions and uranium complexes with bicarbonate and carbonate making them less readily sorbed to aquifer materials. At the aquifer scale, hydrogeology (including isolation of water in aquifers from surface sources of recharge, older groundwater age, and long contact times between groundwater and aquifer materials) combined with geochemical processes (such as silicate weathering) to produce alkaline groundwater. Desorption from sorption sites on the surfaces of mineral grains with increasing pH increases arsenic, chromium, and vanadium concentrations in water from wells and increases Cr(VI) concentrations as long as water remains oxic. Aqueous geochemistry and concentrations of geogenic contaminants also are affected by anthropogenic activities including (1) discharge of treated municipal wastewater, which may change the redox status of groundwater; (2) return from irrigated agriculture, which may alter the chemistry of groundwater and increase the solubility of trace elements such as uranium; and (3) groundwater pumping and subsequent water-level declines, which may change the source of water yielded by wells. The quality of water imported from northern California and infiltrated from ponds for groundwater recharge may be altered by naturally present trace elements, especially uranium in areas of agricultural land use or chromium within mafic alluvium.

California↗

Hydrogeomorphic history, hydrodynamic conditions, and simulations of water levels and velocities from varying lake levels and streamflow for the Sheboygan Rivermouth and area of concern, Wisconsin

In 2011–13, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a study of the hydrogeomorphic setting and hydrodynamic conditions of the lower Sheboygan River and island complex within the backwater zone of Lake Michigan. Analyses of historical aerial photographs from 1938–2010 indicated that the Wildwood Islands complex had experienced mainly erosion and what was mainly one island in 1938 had eroded into about ten smaller islands and bars by 2010. Water levels, velocity and sedimentation patterns in the Sheboygan River mouth are affected by Lake Michigan water levels and seiche-related flow reversals for a potential river length of over 7 km. During the summer of 2012, when water levels in Lake Michigan were below the low water datum, seiche-related water-level fluctuations had a general range of 0.2 m and extended to just upstream of the Wildwood Islands complex, with greater variability in amplitude and frequency in the spring and fall months than in the summer. The low water level associated with the trough of a 60-90-minute seiche-related oscillation was sometimes 0.6 m lower than the low water datum. Runoff events produced river water levels during spring melt or storms that were 0.6 m above coincident Lake Michigan water levels. Frequent ice jams in the winter and early spring of 2012-13 raised river water levels to near the Lake Michigan ordinary high-water mark even though Lake Michigan water levels were at near record lows. Results from trends analyses from 1916 through 2008 indicated average annual streamflow and low flows were increasing in the Sheboygan River, but floods with an annual exceedance probability of 1 percent did not change. Simulations of a range of combinations of Lake Michigan water levels with river flows indicated that a variety of velocity patterns and water levels are possible near the Wildwood Islands complex. Simulated velocities ranged from 0 m/s during high lake levels and small river flows to 2 m/s during high lake levels and floods with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. Silt deposition recorded in sediment cores matched locations of flow divergence in the model simulations. Time lapse photography confirmed flow reversals in the vicinity of the Wildwood Islands complex from frequent seiche oscillations. The study illustrates the large range in variability in water levels and velocities over short periods of time, and that the lake-effect zone can be greatly extended upstream during high lake levels for low-gradient rivermouth environments.

Wisconsin↗

Controls on sediment transport and storage in the Little Snake, Yampa, and Green Rivers in the vicinities of Dinosaur National Monument and Ouray National Wildlife Refuge, Colorado and Utah, with implications for fish habitat in the middle Green River

The transport of sand and finer sediment in the Yampa and Green river network is typically in disequilibrium with the local sediment supply because of the partial decoupling of the sources of water and sediment: most of the water is supplied farther upstream than most of the sediment. This decoupling leads to sand being transported in the main-stem rivers as elongating sand waves following sand resupply during tributary floods. Because of the large amount of sand supplied to the Yampa River by the Little Snake River, Yampa River annual floods generate sand waves that migrate downstream in the Green River causing longitudinal patterns in bed-sand grain size that, in turn, lead to large spatial changes in sand transport. These changes in bed-sand grain size dominate over changes in water discharge in regulating sand transport in the sand-bedded reaches of these rivers. Furthermore, at any given discharge, these changes in bed-sand grain size dominate over all other processes in regulating sand transport in both sand- and gravel-bedded reaches of these rivers. Consequently, erosion or deposition of sand, and the associated changes in fish habitat in the Uinta Basin segment of the Green River are only indirectly related to Green River discharge and Flaming Gorge Dam operations. Owing to the longitudinal patterns of bed-sand grain size associated with the downstream migration of sand waves generated by the Yampa River, a multi-year sequence of large, and likely slightly declining, annual floods on the Yampa River is the probable mechanism that increases backwater fish habitat in the Uinta Basin segment of the Green River. Cross-section resurveys indicate that the Uinta Basin (Jensen to Ouray) segment of the Green River has undergone sand erosion caused by slight channel widening since the 1990s (a channel response in opposition to that observed farther downstream in Canyonlands National Park during this period). These resurveys indicate that sand deposition leads to a decrease in channel complexity whereas sand erosion generally leads to an increase in channel complexity. The backwaters used as native fish nursery habitat consist of deep pools downstream from and adjacent to large bank-attached sandbars; thus, more extensive backwater habitat equates to greater channel complexity. The generation of the sand wave during the first large Yampa River flood in a sequence (that is, the year-1 flood) causes fining of the bed sand near Jensen. The downstream coarsening associated with bed sand that is finer near Jensen than downstream near Ouray causes a downstream decrease in sand transport in the Uinta Basin segment, leading to net sand deposition and decreased channel complexity. Continued downstream migration of this sand wave during the following year’s annual flood (that is, the year-2 flood) then causes downstream fining, leading to erosion of sand and increased channel complexity in this segment. Although the year-1 Yampa River flood supplies the sand and deposits the large sandbars required to form backwaters, and thereby makes possible future backwater habitat, these floods cause a temporary reduction in backwater habitat in the Uinta Basin segment because they tend to cause net sand deposition. It is the subsequent out-year Yampa River floods of likely equal or lesser magnitude that maintain or increase backwater habitat because these are the floods that convey sand through or erode sand from this segment. These typically smaller out-year Yampa River floods rework the sandbars deposited during the year-1 annual flood, thereby leading to the increases in both backwater area and volume that have been measured upon recession of these floods. Although artificial floods released from Flaming Gorge Dam might be used to simulate the habitat maintenance achieved by out-year Yampa River floods, the limited sand supply and stage associated with such dam releases precludes their use as a replacement for the sandbar-depositing role of year-1 Yampa River floods that is a prerequisite for backwater formation in the Uinta Basin segment of the Green River.

Colorado, Utah↗

Decision-making in agent-based modeling: A current review and future prospectus

All basic processes of ecological populations involve decisions; when and where to move, when and what to eat, and whether to fight or flee. Yet decisions and the underlying principles of decision-making have been difficult to integrate into the classical population-level models of ecology. Certainly, there is a long history of modeling individuals' searching behavior, diet selection, or conflict dynamics within social interactions. When all the individuals are given certain simple rules to govern their decision-making processes, the resultant population–level models have yielded important generalizations and theory. But it is also recognized that such models do not represent the way real individuals decide on actions. Factors that influence a decision include the organism's environment with its dynamic rewards and risks, the complex internal state of the organism, and its imperfect knowledge of the environment. In the case of animals, it may also involve complex social factors, and experience and learning, which vary among individuals. The way that all factors are weighed and processed to lead to decisions is a major area of behavioral theory. While classic population-level modeling is limited in its ability to integrate decision-making in its actual complexity, the development of individual- or agent-based models (IBM/ABMs) (we use ABM throughout to designate both “agent-based modeling” and an “agent-based model”) has opened the possibility of describing the way that decisions are made, and their effects, in minute detail. Over the years, these models have increased in size and complexity. Current ABMs can simulate thousands of individuals in realistic environments, and with highly detailed internal physiology, perception and ability to process the perceptions and make decisions based on those and their internal states. The implementation of decision-making in ABMs ranges from fairly simple to highly complex; the process of an individual deciding on an action can occur through the use of logical and simple (if-then) rules to more sophisticated neural networks and genetic algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of the ways in which decisions are integrated into a variety of ABMs and to give a prospectus on the future of modeling of decisions in ABMs.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

Ecological resilience

Resilience is the capacity of complex systems of people and nature to withstand disturbance without shifting into an alternate regime, or a different type of system organized around different processes and structures (Holling, 1973). Resilience theory was developed to explain the non-linear dynamics of complex adaptive systems, like social-ecological systems (SES) (Walker & Salt, 2006). It is often apparent when the resilience of a SES has been exceeded as the system discernibly changes, such as when a thriving city shifts into a poverty trap, but it is difficult to predict when that shift might occur because of the non-linear dynamics of complex systems. Ecological resilience should not be confused with engineering resilience (Angeler & Allen, 2016), which emphasizes the ability of a SES to perform a specific task consistently and predictably, and to re-establish performance quickly should a disturbance occur. Engineering resilience assumes that complex systems are characterized by a single equilibrium state, and this assumption is not appropriate for complex adaptive systems such as SES. In the risk governance context this means that compounded perturbations derived from hazards or global change can have unexpected and highly uncertain effects on natural resources, humans and societies. These effects can manifest in regime shifts, potentially spurring environmental degradation that might lock SES in an undesirable system state that can be difficult to reverse, and as a consequence economic crises, conflict, human health problems.

Book chapter↗

Methods for evaluating crown area profiles of forest stands

Canopy architectures of five structurally complex forest stands and three structurally simple forest stands in southwest Oregon and the Willamette Valley, Oregon, were evaluated and quantified through crown area profiles. Mixed conifer and mixed conifer hardwood stands across a range of sites were sampled for crown widths and heights. Crown width and shape equations were derived and used to quantify the stand crown area at incremental heights above the forest floor. Crown area profiles describe the spatial arrangement of aboveground forest vegetation and the total pore spaces between crowns. Plot by plot profiles were combined to produce vertical and horizontal displays of the stand crown area distribution. In complex stands, the forest space was moderately occupied by crowns from the forest floor up to heights over 30 m, producing uniform distributions of between-crown porosity. The structurally complex stands had between-crown porosity values of 70% to 90% for more than 23 vertical metres of canopy, and they had total between-crown porosities of 86% to 91%. The structurally simple stands had between-crown porosity values of 70% to 90% for less than 8 vertical metres of canopy, and they had total between-crown porosities of 69% to 85%. Variances in crown area indicate that variation in horizontal crown area (within heights) was larger in complex stands than in simple stands, but vertical crown areas (between heights) varied less in complex stands. The study provides a basis for discriminating between canopy architectures and for quantifying the porosity of forest canopies.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗

Hierarchy of sedimentary discontinuity surfaces and condensed beds from the middle Paleozoic of eastern North America: Implications for cratonic sequence stratigraphy

Sedimentological analyses of middle Paleozoic epeiric sea successions in North America suggest a hierarchy of discontinuity surfaces and condensed beds of increasing complexity. Simple firmgrounds and hardgrounds, which are comparatively ephemeral features, form the base of the hierarchy. Composite hardgrounds, reworked concretions, authigenic mineral crusts and monomictic intraformational conglomerates indicate more complex histories. Polymictic intraformational conglomerates, ironstones and phosphorites form the most complex discontinuity surfaces and condensed beds. Complexity of discontinuities is closely linked to depositional environments duration of sediment starvation and degree of reworking which in turn show a relationship to stratigraphic cyclicity. A model of cratonic sequence stratigraphy is generated by combining data on the complexity and lateral distribution of discontinuities in the context of facies successions. Lowstand, early transgressive and late transgressive systems tracts are representative of sea-level rise. Early and late transgressive systems tracts are separated by the maximum starvation surface (typically a polymictic intraformational conglomerate or condensed phosphorite), deposited during the peak rate of sea-level rise. Conversely the maximum flooding surface, representing the highest stand of sea level, is marked by little to no break in sedimentation. The highstand and falling stage systems tracts are deposited during relative sea-level fall. They are separated by the forced-regression surface, a thin discontinuity surface or condensed bed developed during the most rapid rate of sea-level fall. The lowest stand of sea level is marked by the sequence boundary. In subaerially exposed areas it is occasionally modified as a rockground or composite hardground.

Conference Paper↗

Early Paleozoic composite melange terrane, central Appalachian Piedmont, Virginia and Maryland; Its origin and tectonic history

Two distinct types of mélange deposits, distinguished by their matrix, occur within a collage of thrust slices in the Piedmont of the central Appalachians. They crop out in a northeast-trending belt that extends from at least central Virginia northeastward through most of Maryland. One type is a block-in-phyllite mélange that constitutes the Mine Run Complex (new name) of Virginia. It consists of a variety of metaplutonic, metavolcanic, mafic, and ultramafic blocks enclosed within a matrix of phyllite or schist and metasandstones of feldspathic or quartz metagraywacke. The Mine Run Complex is interpreted to consist of four imbricated thrust slices, each with its own distinctive exotic block content. The blocks in one of these mélange subunits (III) are almost exclusively mafic and ultramafic rocks, such as serpentinite, greenschist, metabasalt, and talc schist. The second mélange type within this Piedmont terrane, a metadiamictite, contains a less extensive variety of exotic blocks, the most common being mafic and ultramafic blocks. Such exotic blocks are enclosed in a micaceous quartzofeldspathic matrix, which has contemporaneously deposited schist and quartz-lump fragments as its characterizing features. The Sykesville Formation of Maryland and Virginia is typical of this type of mélange. Several varieties of metadiamictite that have some lithologic differences from the type locality of the Sykesville have been recognized in Virginia and are described as the Lunga Reservoir and the Purcell Branch Formations (new names). Mélanges of the block-in-phyllite and the metadiamictite types are interpreted as having been formed in a Cambrian-Ordovician back-arc or marginal basin that lay on the continentward side of an island-arc system (central Virginia volcanic-plutonic belt and the James Run Formation of Maryland) that had formed in Cambrian time. This Cambrian-Ordovician back-arc basin is assumed to have been underlain, at least initially, by a transform-segmented spreading ridge. The metadiamictite deposits now occur, for the most part, along the flanks and at the southeastern end of the Baltimore-Washington anticlinorium or antiform. This spatial relation is interpreted to be a consequence of thrusting of the diamictite across, as well as onto, the cover rocks and basement of the anticlinorial core terrane (“Baltimoria”) during the Taconic orogeny. The chaotic-textured diamictite formed as a sedimentary slump or slide apron or aprons somewhere to the east of “Baltimoria.” The source area for this diamictite probably was another crystalline landmass that lay east of “Baltimoria.” The matrix rocks of the block-in-phyllite mélange (Mine Run Complex) may have accumulated contemporaneously, in part with diamictite, probably by along-trough basin sedimentation. The block-in-phyllite mélanges of the Mine Run Complex occur south of the Baltimore-Washington anticlinorium metadiamictite terrane and are not associated directly with metadiamictite mélanges. The metavolcanic and metaplutonic blocks within the eastern parts of the Mine Run Complex probably were shed from the island-arc terrane as it was thrust westward during the progressive tectonic telescoping of the back-arc basin in Cambrian and Ordovician time. The mafic and ultramafic blocks in both types of mélanges are believed to have been derived, in part, from the “oceanic” back-arc basin floor from various sources and different processes. Ultramafic protrusions, for example, may have been emplaced periodically along transform faults. Some of the mafic-ultramafic rock may have formed talus rubble along steep submarine scarps. Others may represent blocks broken and segmented by faults from what once were mafic sills emplaced within the sediments accumulating in the basin.

Maryland, Virginiia↗

Mapping, exploration, and characterization of the California continental margin and associated features from the California-Oregon border to Ensenada, Mexico

Priority Geographic Area: Both within and outside US Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). California continental margin. This area includes and continues south of the geographic area captured in the Watt et al. white paper. Description of Priority Area: The California continental margin, from the narrow shelf to abyssal depths, contains diverse seafloor features that influence benthic community types, biological connectivity, and is associated with significant seafloor geohazards. These complex features include marginal basins, depositional slopes, submarine canyons, ridges, and seamounts, and seep environments as a result of fluid seeps along active faults. Water column characteristics are variable, with steep gradients in current velocities, which influence sediment transport, from depositional fans (slow flow, muddy) to submarine canyons and seamounts (high currents, rocky, rugged terrain). These features and associated environments can influence the distribution of deep-sea habitats, including coral and sponge communities. South of the region described in the Watt et al. and Demopoulos et al. white papers, plentiful seeps occur from northern California down to the southern California Borderland. However, the underlying foundational geology associated with these seeps varies along the margin, changing with contrasting tectonic settings, from convergent tectonics to regions dominated by strike-slip faulting (Barry et al. 1996; Paull et al. 2008; Bernardo and Smith 2010; Maloney et al. 2015). For seeps located off southern California, the relationship to strike-slip fault systems may influence the distribution of seep fluid expulsion sites and associated seep habitats (Maloney et al. 2015; Grupe et al. 2015; Conrad et al., 2017), where transpression plays a key role in formation and localization of fluid seeps. Further exploration is required in order to understand these connections. Several submarine canyons intersect the shelf within this region, serving as important channels of energy and transport of sediment from shelf to slope depths. Canyons are typically associated with high currents, turbidity flows, steep and rugged terrain, and high food availability, all of which structures canyon communities and supports hotspots of biodiversity. Specific canyons along the California margin that have been well studied include Scripps and La Jolla Canyons off San Diego, and Monterey Canyon off Monterey, but many more remain relatively unexplored. Commercially important species of fish and invertebrates have been found associated with canyons, as well as deep-sea corals and sponges (e.g., Barry et al. 1996). However, in contrast to their Atlantic counterparts (e.g., through ACUMEN and ASPIRE campaigns) there has been a dearth of exploration and characterization of canyons along the California margin. A number of questions remain regarding canyon and slope wall stability and associated geohazards, plus, how the canyons connect and influence the broader regional biogeography of benthic communities is unknown. Due to their topography, seamounts along the California margin are characterized by steep slopes, large areas of rocky substrate, and high currents. Hydrological complexity is associated with seamounts given they impinge different watermasses, depending on depth range. This heterogeneity yields complex and diverse benthic communities, including commercially important fishes (e.g., Tracey et al., 2012). The geology of Davidson, Pioneer, San Juan, and Rodriquez Seamounts has received considerable study (e.g., Davis et al., 2010) but other seamounts are less known, including how they are biologically and ecologically connected. For example, research comparing the benthic communities associated with Rodriguez and San Juan Seamounts, located outside of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary and within the proposed Chumash Heritage National Marine Sanctuary, to communities found within the sanctuary is critical for managing and protecting resources within the sanctuary and modifying sanctuary boundaries. Exploration would yield the data needed to delineate and characterize essential fish habitats, and deep-sea coral and sponge communities, thus directly connecting the utility of exploration and discovery to decision making. The southern California Borderland is a geomorphologically heterogeneous area created by a complex network of faults, containing deep basins separated by shallow ridges and islands. Persistent fault-related deformation has created complex features, such as exposure of scarps and uplift rocks/ridges, seeps, erosional terraces, hydrate mounds, and mud volcanoes that provide support for thriving benthic communities. That said, significant oxygen minimum zones and low aragonite saturation states persist within several of the basin environments, influencing energy flow, community ecology, and calcification. For example, the combined effects of hypoxia and acidification pose serious threats to marine organisms and biological resources along the California margin. Mapping and exploration of the extensive faults and fault scarps can help constrain historical earthquake activity. But many questions remain regarding how the underlying geology and geological processes have shaped the biological communities.

California↗

Tearing the terroir: Details and implications of surface rupture and deformation from the 24 August 2014 M6.0 South Napa earthquake, California

The M w 6.0 South Napa earthquake of 24 August 2014 caused slip on several active fault strands within the West Napa Fault Zone (WNFZ). Field mapping identified 12.5 km of surface rupture. These field observations, near-field geodesy and space geodesy, together provide evidence for more than ~30 km of surface deformation with a relatively complex distribution across a number of subparallel lineaments. Along a ~7 km section north of the epicenter, the surface rupture is confined to a single trace that cuts alluvial deposits, reoccupying a low-slope scarp. The rupture continued northward onto at least four other traces through subparallel ridges and valleys. Postseismic slip exceeded coseismic slip along much of the southern part of the main rupture trace with total slip 1 year postevent approaching 0.5 m at locations where only a few centimeters were measured the day of the earthquake. Analysis of airborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar data provides slip distributions along fault traces, indicates connectivity and extent of secondary traces, and confirms that postseismic slip only occurred on the main trace of the fault, perhaps indicating secondary structures ruptured as coseismic triggered slip. Previous mapping identified the WNFZ as a zone of distributed faulting, and this was generally borne out by the complex 2014 rupture pattern. Implications for hazard analysis in similar settings include the need to consider the possibility of complex surface rupture in areas of complex topography, especially where multiple potentially Quaternary-active fault strands can be mapped.

California↗

Simulated juvenile salmon growth and phenology respond to altered thermal regimes and stream network shape

It is generally accepted that climate change will stress coldwater species such as Pacific salmon. However, it is unclear what aspect of altered thermal regimes (e.g., warmer winters, springs, summers, or increased variability) will have the greatest effect, and what role the spatial properties of river networks play. Thermally diverse habitats may afford protection from climate change by providing opportunities for aquatic organisms to find and use habitats with optimal conditions for growth. We hypothesized that climate‐altered thermal regimes will change growth and timing of life history events such as emergence or migration but that changes will be moderated in topologically complex stream networks where opportunities to thermoregulate are more readily available to mobile animals. Because climate change effects on populations are spatially variable and contingent upon physiological optima, assessments of risk must take a spatially explicit approach. We developed a spatially structured individual‐based model for Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in which movement decisions and growth were governed by water temperature and conspecific density. We evaluated growth and phenology (timing of egg emergence and smolting) under a variety of thermal regimes (each having a different minimum, rate of warming, maximum, and variability) and in three network shapes of increasing spatial complexity. Across networks, fish generally grew faster and were capable of smolting earlier in warmer scenarios where water temperatures experienced by fish were closer to optimal; however, growth decreased for some fish. We found that salmon size and smolt date responded more strongly to warmer springs and summers than to warmer winters or increased variability. Fish in the least complex network grew faster and were ready to smolt earlier than fish in the more spatially complex network shapes in the contemporary thermal regime; patterns were similar but less clear in warmer thermal regimes. Our results demonstrate that network topology may influence how fish respond to thermal landscapes, and this information will be useful for incorporating a spatiotemporal context into conservation decisions that promote long‐term viability of salmon in a changing climate.

Ecosphere↗

Clarifying the trophic state concept to advance macroscale freshwater science and management

For over a century, ecologists have used the concept of trophic state (TS) to characterize an aquatic ecosystem's biological productivity. However, multiple TS classification schemes, each relying on a variety of measurable parameters as proxies for productivity, have emerged to meet use-specific needs. Frequently, chlorophyll a, phosphorus, and Secchi depth are used to classify TS based on autotrophic production, whereas phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon, and true color are used to classify TS based on both autotrophic and heterotrophic production. Both classification approaches aim to characterize an ecosystem's function broadly, but with varying degrees of autotrophic and heterotrophic processes considered in those characterizations. Moreover, differing classification schemes can create inconsistent interpretations of ecosystem integrity. For example, the US Clean Water Act focuses exclusively on algal threats to water quality, framed in terms of eutrophication in response to nutrient loading. This usage lacks information about non-algal threats to water quality, such as dystrophication in response to dissolved organic carbon loading. Consequently, the TS classification schemes used to identify eutrophication and dystrophication may refer to ecosystems similarly (e.g., oligotrophic and eutrophic), yet these categories are derived from different proxies. These inconsistencies in TS classification schemes may be compounded when interdisciplinary projects employ varied TS frameworks. Even with these shortcomings, TS can still be used to distill information on complex aquatic ecosystem function into a set of generalizable expectations. The usefulness of distilling complex information into a TS index is substantial such that usage inconsistencies should be explicitly addressed and resolved. To emphasize the consequences of diverging TS classification schemes, we present three case studies for which an improved understanding of the TS concept advances freshwater research, management efforts, and interdisciplinary collaboration. To increase clarity in TS, the aquatic sciences could benefit from including information about the proxy variables, ecosystem type, as well as the spatiotemporal domains used to classify TS. As the field of aquatic sciences expands and climatic irregularity increases, we highlight the importance of re-evaluating fundamental concepts, such as TS, to ensure their compatibility with evolving science.

Ecosphere↗

Interaction strength and harvest intensity mediate predator–prey dynamics on coral reefs

Understanding predator–prey relationships is fundamental to our knowledge of the stability and resilience of ecological systems. These dynamics are shaped by both ecological factors, like interaction strength, and anthropogenic factors, like harvest intensity, which can have large-scale implications for community structure. However, few studies have focused on the combined impact of these effects and their contribution to phenomena like prey release within two-species frameworks. In this study, we investigate the interactive impact of interaction strength and harvest pressure on two trophic levels in a predator–prey system using a mathematical modeling approach. Our results reveal that interaction strength plays a crucial role in shaping population dynamics, with high interaction strength leading to a predator-dominated system and low interaction strength enabling coexistence between species. The addition of predator harvest into the system reveals complex and counterintuitive behavior not seen in unharvested systems, likely due to the destabilizing impacts of harvest at some interaction strengths. Specifically, the inclusion of harvest on the predator can induce a range of behaviors, such as prey release and predator decline, that alter the equilibrium abundance of both predator and prey populations. Interestingly, predator–prey systems with intermediate to high interaction strengths achieve maximum total abundance with low harvest levels rather than in scenarios with no harvest pressure, as prey populations benefit greatly from reduced predation mortality associated with predator harvest. We gain insights into the complex interplay between predator–prey interactions and human activities in shaping community composition and abundances across trophic levels. This study provides potential mechanisms that may explain the observed variation in numerical prey release in trophically complex systems in which predators and prey are both extracted, like coral reef fisheries. Results highlight the need for resource management to consider the wide range of factors that shape ecosystem dynamics to develop effective strategies that safeguard the long-term health of complex ecosystems and the human communities that they support.

Ecosphere↗

Relations between rainfall–runoff-induced erosion and aeolian deposition at archaeological sites in a semi-arid dam-controlled river corridor

Process dynamics in fluvial-based dryland environments are highly complex with fluvial, aeolian, and alluvial processes all contributing to landscape change. When anthropogenic activities such as dam-building affect fluvial processes, the complexity in local response can be further increased by flood- and sediment-limiting flows. Understanding these complexities is key to predicting landscape behavior in drylands and has important scientific and management implications, including for studies related to paleoclimatology, landscape ecology evolution, and archaeological site context and preservation. Here we use multi-temporal LiDAR surveys, local weather data, and geomorphological observations to identify trends in site change throughout the 446-km-long semi-arid Colorado River corridor in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA, where archaeological site degradation related to the effects of upstream dam operation is a concern. Using several site case studies, we show the range of landscape responses that might be expected from concomitant occurrence of dam-controlled fluvial sand bar deposition, aeolian sand transport, and rainfall-induced erosion. Empirical rainfall-erosion threshold analyses coupled with a numerical rainfall–runoff–soil erosion model indicate that infiltration-excess overland flow and gullying govern large-scale (centimeter- to decimeter-scale) landscape changes, but that aeolian deposition can in some cases mitigate gully erosion. Whereas threshold analyses identify the normalized rainfall intensity (defined as the ratio of rainfall intensity to hydraulic conductivity) as the primary factor governing hydrologic-driven erosion, assessment of false positives and false negatives in the dataset highlight topographic slope as the next most important parameter governing site response. Analysis of 4+ years of high resolution (four-minute) weather data and 75+ years of low resolution (daily) climate records indicates that dryland erosion is dependent on short-term, storm-driven rainfall intensity rather than cumulative rainfall, and that erosion can occur outside of wet seasons and even wet years. These results can apply to other similar semi-arid landscapes where process complexity may not be fully understood.

Arizona↗

The Ebro Deep-Sea Fan system

The Ebro Fan System consists of en echelon channel-levee complexes, 50??20 km in area and 200-m thick. A few strong reflectors in a generally transparent seismic facies identify the sand-rich channel floors and levee crests. Numerous continuous acoustic reflectors characterize overbank turbidites and hemipelagites that blanket abandoned channel-levee complexes. The interlobe areas between channel complexes fill with homogeneous mud and sand from mass flow and overbank deposition; these exhibit a transparent seismic character. The steep continental rise and sediment 'drainage' of Valencia Trough at the end of the channel-levee complexes prevent the development of distributary channels and midfan lobe deposits. ?? 1984 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

Geo-Marine Letters↗