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At least 1,171 records · Page 65Linked to original sources

USGS2018

Effect of climate change on disease spread in wildlife

A growing body of evidence indicates that climate change alone, or acting synergistically with current anthropogenic threats, is affecting the health of wild populations of aquatic and terrestrial wildlife. Measurable by-products of climate change include elevated atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, higher average global temperatures; variations in global precipitation patterns, rising and warming oceans, altered hydrographs of rivers, and increased mid-continental drying during summer. These consequences affect the terrestrial environment through shifts in phenology, vegetation cover, and fire regimes. Warmer ocean temperatures, increased acidification, rise in sea levels, and reduction in sea ice cover are also leading to widespread ecological changes in marine systems. Wildlife populations face a variety of climate-related pressures, such as changes in animal distribution or density, limitation of food resources, and alteration to critical habitats. The increased potential for emergence and resurgence of diseases that are responsive to environmental conditions also has implications for wildlife populations. Shifts in temperature or other climatic factors may directly affect the incidence of disease in wildlife by altering host-pathogen interactions, promoting vector populations or allowing new ranges for vectors, or reducing development times for parasites. A number of examples from both field and laboratory studies have demonstrated a clear link between warming environments and disease spread. Many climate-related environmental changes also influence wildlife health indirectly. For example, increasing temperatures, in combination with shifts in rainfall and humidity, may aggravate current trends for water resource limitation and habitat degradation or destruction and lead to increased crowding of animal populations, thereby promoting transmission opportunities of pathogens within populations or across species. Although it may be difficult to disentangle the influences of other anthropogenic changes from the direct effects of warming, some ecosystems provide especially useful models for studying climate-related disease spread in wildlife. For example, the effects of climate change on parasite dynamics may be easily observed in the Arctic, where environmental changes are occurring rapidly, anthropogenic influences are relatively limited, and biodiversity is generally low. Marine ecosystems are also undergoing rapid rates of change and may be vulnerable to a variety of natural and anthropogenic perturbations. Although many factors affect the health of organisms in ocean environments, temperature has been clearly linked to an increase in disease prevalence among sessile organisms such as corals. In this chapter, we discuss observed and predicted changes to wildlife health resulting from climate change. Our review will not include all aspects of wildlife health, but will instead focus on established or suspected links between climate drivers and disease spread and discuss examples from the current literature. Here, we define disease spread to include: 1) change in geographical or altitudinal distribution of pathogens, parasites, and vectors and the diseases they cause; 2) change in prevalence or severity of disease; and 3) emergence of novel diseases. Additionally, because wildlife species serve as reservoirs for zoonotic diseases that affect both animals and humans, we include select examples of the effect of climate change on the capacity of wildlife to harbor and spread these disease agents.

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

It’s about time: A synthesis of changing phenology in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem

The timing of recurring biological and seasonal environmental events is changing on a global scale relative to temperature and other climate drivers. This study considers the Gulf of Maine ecosystem, a region of high social and ecological importance in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and synthesizes current knowledge of 1) key seasonal processes, patterns, and events; 2) direct evidence for shifts in timing; 3) implications of phenological responses for linked ecological-human systems; and 4) potential phenology-focused adaptation strategies and actions. Twenty studies demonstrated shifts in timing of regional marine organisms and seasonal environmental events. The most common response was earlier timing, observed in spring onset, spring and winter hydrology, zooplankton abundance, and diadromous fish migrations. Later timing was documented for fall onset, reproduction and fledging in Atlantic puffins, spring and fall phytoplankton blooms, and occurrence of some larval fishes. Changes in event duration generally increased and were detected in zooplankton peak abundance, early life history periods of macro-invertebrates, and lobster fishery landings. Reduced duration was observed in winter-spring ice-affected stream flows. Two studies projected phenological changes, both finding diapause duration would decrease in zooplankton under future climate scenarios. Phenological responses were species-specific and varied depending on the environmental driver, spatial, and temporal scales evaluated. Overall, a wide range of baseline phenology and relevant modeling studies exist, yet surprisingly few document long-term shifts. Results reveal a need for increased emphasis on phenological shifts in the Gulf of Maine, identify opportunities for future research and consideration of phenological changes in adaptation efforts.

Maine↗

USGS2002

Modelling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: Sensitivity of pan-Arctic carbon storage to temporal and spatial variation in climate

Historical and projected climate trends for high latitudes show substantial temporal and spatial variability. To identify uncertainties in simulating carbon (C) dynamics for pan-Arctic tundra, we compare the historical and projected responses of tundra C storage from 1921 to 2100 between simulations by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) for the pan-Arctic and the Kuparuk River Basin, which was the focus of an integrated study of C dynamics from 1994 to 1996. In the historical period from 1921 to 1994, the responses of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (RH) simulated for the Kuparuk River Basin and the pan-Arctic are correlated with the same factors; NPP is positively correlated with net nitrogen mineralization (NMIN) and RH is negatively correlated with mean annual soil moisture. In comparison to the historical period, the spatially aggregated responses of NPP and RH for the Kuparuk River Basin and the pan-Arctic in our simulations for the projected period have different sensitivities to temperature, soil moisture and NMIN. In addition to being sensitive to soil moisture during the projected period, RH is also sensitive to temperature and there is a significant correlation between RH and NMIN. We interpret the increases in NPP during the projected period as being driven primarily by increases in NMIN, and that the correlation between NPP and temperature in the projected period is a result primarily of the causal linkage between temperature, RH, and NMIN. Although similar factors appear to be controlling simulated regional-and biome-scale C dynamics, simulated C dynamics at the two scales differ in magnitude with higher increases in C storage simulated for the Kuparuk River Basin than for the pan-Arctic at the end of the historical period and throughout the projected period. Also, the results of the simulations indicate that responses of C storage show different climate sensitivities at regional and pan-Arctic spatial scales and that these sensitivities change across the temporal scope of the simulations. The results of the TEM simulations indicate that the scaling of C dynamics to a region of arctic tundra may not represent C dynamics of pan-Arctic tundra because of the limited spatial variation in climate and vegetation within a region relative to the pan-Arctic. For reducing uncertainties, our analyses highlight the importance of incorporating the understanding gained from process-level studies of C dynamics in a region of arctic tundra into process-based models that simulate C dynamics in a spatially explicit fashion across the spatial domain of pan-Arctic tundra. Also, efforts to improve gridded datasets of historical climate for the pan-Arctic would advance the ability to assess the responses of C dynamics for pan-Arctic tundra in a more realistic fashion. A major challenge will be to incorporate topographic controls over soil moisture in assessing the response of C storage for pan-Arctic tundra.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2016

Thermokarst rates intensify due to climate change and forest fragmentation in an Alaskan boreal forest lowland

Lowland boreal forest ecosystems in Alaska are dominated by wetlands comprised of a complex mosaic of fens, collapse-scar bogs, low shrub/scrub, and forests growing on elevated ice-rich permafrost soils. Thermokarst has affected the lowlands of the Tanana Flats in central Alaska for centuries, as thawing permafrost collapses forests that transition to wetlands. Located within the discontinuous permafrost zone, this region has significantly warmed over the past half-century, and much of these carbon-rich permafrost soils are now within ~0.5 °C of thawing. Increased permafrost thaw in lowland boreal forests in response to warming may have consequences for the climate system. This study evaluates the trajectories and potential drivers of 60 years of forest change in a landscape subjected to permafrost thaw in unburned dominant forest types (paper birch and black spruce) associated with location on elevated permafrost plateau and across multiple time periods (1949, 1978, 1986, 1998, and 2009) using historical and contemporary aerial and satellite images for change detection. We developed (i) a deterministic statistical model to evaluate the potential climatic controls on forest change using gradient boosting and regression tree analysis, and (ii) a 30 × 30 m land cover map of the Tanana Flats to estimate the potential landscape-level losses of forest area due to thermokarst from 1949 to 2009. Over the 60-year period, we observed a nonlinear loss of birch forests and a relatively continuous gain of spruce forest associated with thermokarst and forest succession, while gradient boosting/regression tree models identify precipitation and forest fragmentation as the primary factors controlling birch and spruce forest change, respectively. Between 1950 and 2009, landscape-level analysis estimates a transition of ~15 km² or ~7% of birch forests to wetlands, where the greatest change followed warm periods. This work highlights that the vulnerability and resilience of lowland ice-rich permafrost ecosystems to climate changes depend on forest type.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

Modeling aeolian transport in response to succession, disturbance and future climate: Dynamic long-term risk assessment for contaminant redistribution

Aeolian sediment transport is a fundamental process redistributing sediment, nutrients, and contaminants in dryland ecosystems. Over time frames of centuries or longer, horizontal sediment fluxes and associated rates of contaminant transport are likely to be influenced by succession, disturbances, and changes in climate, yet models of horizontal sediment transport that account for these fundamental factors are lacking, precluding in large part accurate assessment of human health risks associated with persistent soil-bound contaminants. We present a simple model based on empirical measurements of horizontal sediment transport (predominantly saltation) to predict potential contaminant transport rates for recently disturbed sites such as a landfill cover. Omnidirectional transport is estimated within vegetation that changes using a simple Markov model that simulates successional trajectory and considers three types of short-term disturbances (surface fire, crown fire, and drought-induced plant mortality) under current and projected climates. The model results highlight that movement of contaminated soil is sensitive to vegetation dynamics and increases substantially (e.g., > fivefold) when disturbance and/or future climate are considered. The time-dependent responses in horizontal sediment fluxes and associated contaminant fluxes were sensitive to variability in the timing of disturbance, with longer intervals between disturbance allowing woody plants to become dominant and crown fire and drought abruptly reducing woody plant cover. Our results, which have direct implications for contaminant transport and landfill management in the specific context of our assessment, also have general relevance because they highlight the need to more fully account for vegetation dynamics, disturbance, and changing climate in aeolian process studies.

Aeolian Research↗

USGS2026

Functional traits can explain coordinated seedling responses to drought and freezing stress

Limited plant establishment creates demographic bottlenecks that can alter vegetation trajectories in changing environments, yet it is unclear how common eco-evolutionary indicators of plant strategy shape early response to key stressors. We evaluated how early functional traits, phylogeny, and adult climate niche jointly explain seedling drought and freezing tolerance across 49 semi-arid rangeland species. The best models explained 36% of variation in freezing tolerance (traits only) and 45% of variation in drought tolerance (traits, phylogeny, and climate), identifying both shared and unique indicators of different stress responses. Drought tolerance was explained by rapid root elongation and large seed size, while phylogeny captured additional tolerance within the grass family. Seedling freezing tolerance was linked to rapid root elongation and colder thresholds for root growth, though traits shared some explanatory power with adult climate niche (cold temperature distribution). While stress resistance can be shaped by phylogeny and adaptations to long-term climate regimes, our results elucidate early traits with clearer direct links to establishment capacity under drought and freezing stress, across species. Additional research is needed to understand how variation in stress response strategies across multiple demographic stages (e.g., seeds, seedlings, mature plant) and ecological scales (e.g., within and across species' climate distributions) could affect vegetation distributions and trajectories in changing environments.

Colorado Plateau, Great Basin, western United Stat↗

USGS2017

Effects of experimentally reduced snowpack and passive warming on montane meadow plant phenology and floral resources

Climate change can have a broad range of effects on ecosystems and organisms, and early responses may include shifts in vegetation phenology and productivity that may not coincide with the energetics and forage timing of higher trophic levels. We evaluated phenology, annual height growth, and foliar frost responses of forbs to a factorial experiment of snow removal (SR) and warming in a high-elevation meadow over two years in the Rocky Mountains, United States. Species included arrowleaf balsamroot ( Balsamorhiza sagittata , early-season emergence and flowering) and buckwheat ( Eriogonum umbellatum, semi-woody and late-season flowering), key forbs for pollinator and nectar-using animal communities that are widely distributed and locally abundant in western North America. Snow removal exerted stronger effects than did warming, and advanced phenology differently for each species. Specifically, SR advanced green-up by a few days for B. sagittata to >2 wk in E. umbellatum , and led to 5- to 11-d advances in flowering of B. sagittata in one year and advances in bud break in 3 of 4 species/yr combinations. Snow removal increased height of E. umbellatum appreciably (~5 cm added to ~22.8 cm in control), but led to substantial increases in frost damage to flowers of B. sagittata . Whereas warming had no effects on E. umbellatum , it increased heights of B. sagittata by >6 cm (compared to 30.7 cm in control plots) and moreover led to appreciable reductions in frost damage to flowers. These data suggest that timing of snowmelt, which is highly variable from year to year but is advancing in recent decades, has a greater impact on these critical phenological, growth, and floral survival traits and floral/nectar resources than warming per se, although warming mitigated early effects of SR on frost kill of flowers. Given the short growing season of these species, the shifts could cause uncoupling in nectar availability and timing of foraging.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2023

Spatiotemporal dynamics of duck harvest distributions in the Central and Mississippi flyways, 1960–2019

Geographical distributions of waterfowl exhibit annual variation in response to spatiotemporal variation in weather conditions, habitat availability, and other factors. Continuing changes in climate and land use could lead to persistent shifts of waterfowl distributions, potentially causing a mismatch with habitat conservation planning, wetland restoration efforts, and harvest management decisions informed by historical distributions. We used band recoveries and harvest records (i.e., hunter-harvested wings) from the United States Fish and Wildlife Service Waterfowl Parts Collection Survey as indices of duck distribution in autumn and winter, and quantified intra-annual, interannual, and interspecific variation in their geographic distributions across 6 decades (1960–2019) for 15 duck species in the Central and Mississippi flyways in North America. Specifically, we tested for annual and decadal shifts in mean latitude and longitude of recoveries for each month (Oct–Jan) by species and taxonomic guild (i.e., dabbling, diving ducks). Overall, species varied in the extent, timing, and sometimes direction, of distributional change in recoveries. From 1960–2019, mean recovery locations for dabbling ducks shifted south 105–296 km in October and 27 km in November (wings only), whereas mean latitudes shifted north 144–234 km in December and 186–301 km in January. Mean recovery locations for diving ducks shifted north 162 km in October (wings only), 84–173 km in December, and 66–120 km in January, but shifted 99–512 km south in November. Shifts in longitude were less consistent between guilds and data types. Finally, distributional change rarely accelerated during recent decades, except for southward shifts of band recoveries of diving ducks in November and northward shifts of band and wing recoveries of dabbling ducks in January. Although anecdotal accounts of large-scale northward shifts in duck distributions are prolific in the land management and hunting communities, our data demonstrate more subtle shifts that vary considerably by species and month. Observed changes in recovery distributions could necessitate changes in timing of habitat management practices throughout the Central and Mississippi flyways and may result in fewer hunting and recreational opportunities for some species in southern states. Quantifying patterns of historical change is a necessary first step to understanding temporal and interspecific variation in waterfowl distributions, which will help with landscape-scale conservation and management efforts in the future and enable effective communication to core constituencies regarding ongoing changes and their implications for recreational engagement.

The Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2020

The influence of snow cover, air temperature, and groundwater flow on the active-layer thermal regime of Arctic hillslopes drained by water tracks

Permafrost in Arctic watersheds limits soil biological activity to a thin, seasonally thawed active layer that contributes water to streams. In many hillslopes, relatively wet drainage features called water tracks have distinct freeze-thaw patterns that affect groundwater flow and storage, and thus the export of heat and solutes to Arctic streams. This study uses groundwater flow and energy transport models to examine potential controls on the timing and duration of freeze–thaw conditions and the magnitude of temperature fluctuations within water tracks and their adjacent hillslopes. The simulated length of the active-layer thaw season varies by 1 month over the range of snow-cover and mean annual air-temperature scenarios simulated. The timing and duration of freezing is particularly sensitive to depth and duration of snow cover. Thus, the deeper snowpack covers that can accumulate in water tracks contribute to their more persistent thaw conditions and their ability to conduct groundwater downslope. A three-dimensional simulation shows that during the summer thaw season, the water track captures groundwater laterally from half way across the hillslope. The models presented here elucidate key mechanisms driving small-scale variation in the active-layer thermal regime of tundra hillslopes, which may be responsible for changes in drainage-network geometry and Arctic biogeochemical fluxes under a warming climate.

Alaska↗

USGS1991

Sedimentary facies and depositional environments of early Mesozoic Newark Supergroup basins, eastern North America

The early Mesozoic Newark Supergroup consists of continental sedimentary rocks and basalt flows that occupy a NE-trending belt of elongate basins exposed in eastern North America. The basins were filled over a period of 30–40 m.y. spanning the Late Triassic to Early Jurassic, prior to the opening of the north Atlantic Ocean. The sedimentary rocks are here divided into four principal lithofacies. The alluvial-fan facies includes deposits dominated by: (1) debris flows; (2) shallow braided streams; (3) deeper braided streams (with trough crossbeds); or (4) intense bioturbation or hyperconcentrated flows (tabular, unstratified muddy sandstone). The fluvial facies include deposits of: (1) shallow, ephemeral braided streams; (2) deeper, flashflooding, braided streams (with poor sorting and crossbeds); (3) perennial braided rivers; (4) meandering rivers; (5) meandering streams (with high suspended loads); (6) overbank areas or local flood-plain lakes; or (7) local streams and/or colluvium. The lacustrine facies includes deposits of: (1) deep perennial lakes; (2) shallow perennial lakes; (3) shallow ephemeral lakes; (4) playa dry mudflats; (5) salt-encrusted saline mudflats; or (6) vegetated mudflats. The lake margin clastic facies includes deposits of: (1) birdfoot deltas; (2) stacked Gilbert-type deltas; (3) sheet deltas; (4) wave-reworked alluvial fans; or (5) wave-sorted sand sheets. Coal deposits are present in the lake margin clastic and the lacustrine facies of Carnian age (Late Triassic) only in basins of south-central Virginia and North and South Carolina. Eolian deposits are known only from the basins in Nova Scotia and Connecticut. Evaporites (and their pseudomorphs) occur mainly in the northern basins as deposits of saline soils and less commonly of saline lakes, and some evaporite and alkaline minerals present in the Mesozoic rocks may be a result of later diagenesis. These relationships suggest climatic variations across paleolatitudes, more humid to the south where coal beds are preserved, and more arid in the north where evaporites and eolian deposits are common. Fluctuations in paleoclimate that caused lake levels to rise and fall in hydrologically closed basins are preserved as lacustrine cycles of various scales, including major shifts in the Late Triassic from a wet Carnian to an arid Norian. In contrast, fluvial deposits were mainly formed in response to the tectonic evolution of the basins, but to some extent also reflect climatic changes. The Newark Supergroup illustrates the complexity of rift-basin sedimentation and the problems that may arise from using a single modern analog for sedimentary deposition spanning millions of years. It also shows that a tremendous wealth of depositional, climatic, and tectonic information is preserved in ancient rift-basin deposits which can be recovered if the depositional processes of modern rift-basin deposits are understood.

eastern North America↗

USGS2009

Provenance of Holocene sediment on the Chukchi-Alaskan margin based on combined diffuse spectral reflectance and quantitative X-Ray Diffraction analysis

Sediment clay and silt mineral assemblages provide an excellent means of assessing the provenance of fine-grained Arctic sediment especially when a unique mineral assemblage can be tied to specific source areas. The diffuse spectral reflectance (DSR) first derivative measurements and quantitative X-Ray Diffraction (qXRD) on a high-resolution sediment core from the continental slope north of Alaska constrain the sediment mineralogy. DSR results are augmented by measurements on several adjacent cores and compared to surface sediment samples from the northern Alaskan shelf and slope. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), we infer that the three leading DSR modes relate to mixtures of smectite + dolomite, illite + goethite, and chlorite + muscovite. This interpretation is consistent with the down core qXRD results. While the smectite + dolomite, and illite + goethite factors show increased variability down core, the chlorite + muscovite factor had highest positive loadings in the middle Holocene, between ca. 6.0 and 3.6??ka. Because the most likely source of the chlorite + muscovite suite in this vicinity lies in the North Pacific, we argue that the oscillations in chlorite + muscovite values likely reflect an increase in the inflow of Pacific water to the Arctic through the Bering Strait. The time interval of this event is associated in other parts of the globe with a non-linear response of the climate system to the decrease in insolation, which may be related to changes in water exchange between the Pacific and Arctic Ocean. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2010

Modeling fire severity in black spruce stands in the Alaskan boreal forest using spectral and non-spectral geospatial data

Biomass burning in the Alaskan interior is already a major disturbance and source of carbon emissions, and is likely to increase in response to the warming and drying predicted for the future climate. In addition to quantifying changes to the spatial and temporal patterns of burned areas, observing variations in severity is the key to studying the impact of changes to the fire regime on carbon cycling, energy budgets, and post-fire succession. Remote sensing indices of fire severity have not consistently been well-correlated with in situ observations of important severity characteristics in Alaskan black spruce stands, including depth of burning of the surface organic layer. The incorporation of ancillary data such as in situ observations and GIS layers with spectral data from Landsat TM/ETM+ greatly improved efforts to map the reduction of the organic layer in burned black spruce stands. Using a regression tree approach, the R2 of the organic layer depth reduction models was 0.60 and 0.55 (pb0.01) for relative and absolute depth reduction, respectively. All of the independent variables used by the regression tree to estimate burn depth can be obtained independently of field observations. Implementation of a gradient boosting algorithm improved the R2 to 0.80 and 0.79 (pb0.01) for absolute and relative organic layer depth reduction, respectively. Independent variables used in the regression tree model of burn depth included topographic position, remote sensing indices related to soil and vegetation characteristics, timing of the fire event, and meteorological data. Post-fire organic layer depth characteristics are determined for a large (N200,000 ha) fire to identify areas that are potentially vulnerable to a shift in post-fire succession. This application showed that 12% of this fire event experienced fire severe enough to support a change in post-fire succession. We conclude that non-parametric models and ancillary data are useful in the modeling of the surface organic layer fire depth. Because quantitative differences in post-fire surface characteristics do not directly influence spectral properties, these modeling techniques provide better information than the use of remote sensing data alone.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2015

Tree mortality predicted from drought-induced vascular damage

The projected responses of forest ecosystems to warming and drying associated with twenty-first-century climate change vary widely from resiliency to widespread tree mortality 1 , 2 , 3 . Current vegetation models lack the ability to account for mortality of overstorey trees during extreme drought owing to uncertainties in mechanisms and thresholds causing mortality 4 , 5 . Here we assess the causes of tree mortality, using field measurements of branch hydraulic conductivity during ongoing mortality in Populus tremuloides in the southwestern United States and a detailed plant hydraulics model. We identify a lethal plant water stress threshold that corresponds with a loss of vascular transport capacity from air entry into the xylem. We then use this hydraulic-based threshold to simulate forest dieback during historical drought, and compare predictions against three independent mortality data sets. The hydraulic threshold predicted with 75% accuracy regional patterns of tree mortality as found in field plots and mortality maps derived from Landsat imagery. In a high-emissions scenario, climate models project that drought stress will exceed the observed mortality threshold in the southwestern United States by the 2050s. Our approach provides a powerful and tractable way of incorporating tree mortality into vegetation models to resolve uncertainty over the fate of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS2007

Integrating observation and statistical forecasts over sub-Saharan Africa to support Famine Early Warning

Famine early warning in Africa presents unique challenges and rewards. Hydrologic extremes must be tracked and anticipated over complex and changing climate regimes. The successful anticipation and interpretation of hydrologic shocks can initiate effective government response, saving lives and softening the impacts of droughts and floods. While both monitoring and forecast technologies continue to advance, discontinuities between monitoring and forecast systems inhibit effective decision making. Monitoring systems typically rely on high resolution satellite remote-sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and rainfall imagery. Forecast systems provide information on a variety of scales and formats. Non-meteorologists are often unable or unwilling to connect the dots between these disparate sources of information. To mitigate these problem researchers at UCSB's Climate Hazard Group, NASA GIMMS and USGS/EROS are implementing a NASA-funded integrated decision support system that combines the monitoring of precipitation and NDVI with statistical one-to-three month forecasts. We present the monitoring/forecast system, assess its accuracy, and demonstrate its application in food insecure sub-Saharan Africa.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2015

Predicting ecological responses of the Florida Everglades to possible future climate scenarios: Introduction

Florida’s Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem’s spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world’s largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

Florida↗

USGS2017

Decreased runoff response to precipitation, Little Missouri River Basin, northern Great Plains, USA

High variability in precipitation and streamflow in the semiarid northern Great Plains causes large uncertainty in water availability. This uncertainty is compounded by potential effects of future climate change. We examined historical variability in annual and growing season precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the Little Missouri River Basin and identified differences in the runoff response to precipitation for the period 1976-2012 compared to 1939-1975 ( n = 37 years in both cases). Computed mean values for the second half of the record showed little change (<5%) in annual or growing season precipitation, but average annual runoff at the basin outlet decreased by 22%, with 66% of the reduction in flow occurring during the growing season. Our results show a statistically significant ( p < 0.10) 27% decrease in the annual runoff response to precipitation (runoff ratio). Surface-water withdrawals for various uses appear to account for <12% of the reduction in average annual flow volume, and we found no published or reported evidence of substantial flow reduction caused by groundwater pumping in this basin. Results of our analysis suggest that increases in monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, including >1°C increases in January through March, are the dominant driver of the observed decrease in runoff response to precipitation in the Little Missouri River Basin.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming↗

USGS1999

Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2016

Climate regulates alpine lake ice cover phenology and aquatic ecosystem structure

High-elevation aquatic ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change, yet relatively few records are available to characterize shifts in ecosystem structure or their underlying mechanisms. Using a long-term dataset on seven alpine lakes (3126 to 3620 m) in Colorado, USA, we show that ice-off dates have shifted seven days earlier over the past 33 years and that spring weather conditions – especially snowfall – drive yearly variation in ice-off timing. In the most well-studied lake, earlier ice-off associated with increases in water residence times, thermal stratification, ion concentrations, dissolved nitrogen, pH, and chlorophyll-a. Mechanistically, low spring snowfall and warm temperatures reduce summer stream flow (increasing lake residence times) but enhance melting of glacial and permafrost ice (increasing lake solute inputs). The observed links among hydrological, chemical, and biological responses to climate factors highlight the potential for major shifts in the functioning of alpine lakes due to forecasted climate change.

Colorado↗