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Climate change and other factors influencing the saguaro cactus

The saguaro cacti ( Carnegiea gigantea [Engelm.] Britton & Rose) is one of the world’s most iconic plants and a symbol of the desert Southwest. It is the namesake of Saguaro National Park, which was created (initially as a national monument) in 1933 to study, interpret, and protect the “giant cactus” and other unique Sonoran Desert species. Research on saguaros over the past century has revealed much about the plant’s growth, reproduction, population dynamics, and use by people and wildlife. Young saguaros grow very slowly, not reaching reproductive age until they are 35–65 years old. They produce white flowers that open at night during April through June, followed by large red fruits that are consumed by many desert animals. The saguaro fruit is also a traditional food source for the Tohono O’odham people, and the harvest of the saguaro fruit is a very important part of their culture (Bruhn 1971). Mature saguaros produce thousands of seeds each year, but establishment is episodic in that seedlings survive only during favorable periods with several consecutive years of cooler, wetter weather (Steenbergh and Lowe 1977).

Arizona↗

Floodplains and climate change

Floodplains are landscape features that are periodically inundated by water from adjacent rivers (Opperman et al. 2010). Ecologically, functional floodplains are characterized by three primary elements: connectivity, flow regime, and spatial scale. Water quantity flowing over floodplains can vary greatly. Based on a flood’s effects on the floodplain, three flood categories have been defined: floodplain-activation floods, floodplain-maintenance floods, and floodplainresetting floods (Box 1). Several physical parameters determine the types of ecosystems on floodplains and the species they will support; these include temperature, water depth, water velocity, and hydrologic connectivity (Opperman et al. 2010). Natural ecosystems commonly found on floodplains include annual vegetation, forests, seasonal wetlands, and permanent ponds or wetlands (Whipple et al. 2012). Floodplains provide many valuable ecosystem services: attenuation of flood flows which reduces flood risk, filtration of surface water, recreation, fisheries, agriculture, biodiversity, food availability, and groundwater recharge, which contributes to more-sustained and cooler dry-season flows (Opperman et al. 2010). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Box 1 Floodplain-activation flood A small magnitude flood that occurs relatively frequently and produces characteristic ecological benefits such as food-web productivity and habitat creation for native fish spawning and rearing. Floodplain-maintenance flood A higher magnitude flood that, in addition to providing ecological benefits, results in geomorphic changes including bank erosion and deposition on the floodplain. Floodplain-resetting flood A very high-magnitude flood that occurs rarely and results in extensive geomorphic changes, such as the scouring of floodplain surfaces and changes in channel location due to avulsion. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

California↗

Advancing best practices for the analysis of the vulnerability of military installations in the Pacific Basin to coastal flooding under a changing climate – RC-2644

Coastal flooding takes many forms, ranging from major flooding associated with storms to minor flooding associated with exceptionally high tides and other oceanic and atmospheric phenomena on storm-free days. A major societal challenge is to understand and predict how flood magnitude and frequency will manifest at particular places and times, now and in the future. Of particular interest here is how coastal flooding will impact Department of Defense (DoD) installations. In response to this need, this work aims to advance the practical application of statistical and other analytical techniques that can be used to assess the exposure, and ultimately the vulnerability, of built and natural environments to the impacts of coastal flooding. A variety of methods are described and applied to assess exposure. This includes tide gauge station-based diagnosis and prognosis of patterns and trends of Still Water Level, techniques to characterize the expression of ‘lesser extremes’ (e.g., sub-annual to subdecadal event probabilities), and region-wide analysis that improves upon results obtained from conventional single-tide gauge analyses. A novel hybrid statistical and dynamical modeling approach is applied to the analysis of Total Water Levels, necessary for exposure assessment along shorelines exposed to wave action. The hybrid exposure assessment modeling approach is incorporated into a broader mission-based protocol for the assessment of resilience to coastal flooding at the installation level. Demonstrated via an exemplar assessment, which takes into account functional (lost day) as well as financial impacts (lost dollars), the protocol meets the demand for an actionable characterization of how DoD installations will be affected by coastal flooding and improves DoD’s ability to make informed decisions about how to adapt to its effects. The methods described, evaluated, and applied here, including innovative approaches and proof-of-concept products developed through this work, are incorporated into and considered within an analytical framework that serves as guidance as to their relative merits with respect to coastal flood exposure assessment in various circumstances and settings, and illustrates best practices. This will provide engineers, scientists and other practitioners with an enhanced capability to generate information that can be used to support area-wide assessment related to climate adaptation planning and disaster risk reduction as well as site-specific analysis related to design and maintenance of facilities and infrastructure. While the focus is on a select set of DoD sites in the Pacific Basin, the results have broad applicability nationally as well as globally.

Final Report↗