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USGS2011

Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state’s flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $ 300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $ 400 billion, of which $ 20 to $ 30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $ 325 billion in addition to the $ 400 billion property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $ 725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and California Emergency Management Agency guidance connecting federal, state and local natural hazards mapping and mitigation planning under the National Flood Insurance Plan and Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000. (6) Common messages to educate the public about the risk of such an extreme disaster as the ARkStorm scenario could be developed and consistently communicated to facilitate policy formulation and transformation. These impacts were estimated by a team of 117 scientists, engineers, public-policy experts, insurance experts, and employees of the affected lifelines. In many aspects the ARkStorm produced new science, such as the model of coastal inundation. The products of the ARkStorm are intended for use by emergency planners, utility operators, policymakers, and others to inform preparedness plans and to enhance resiliency.

California↗
USGS2011

Probability and volume of potential postwildfire debris flows in the 2011 Monument burn area, southeastern Arizona

This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned by the Monument wildfire in southeastern Arizona, in 2011. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned drainage basins throughout the intermountain Western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volumes of debris flows for selected drainage basins. Input for the models include measures of burn severity, topographic characteristics, soil properties, and rainfall total and intensity for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, (2) 5-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, and (3) 10-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall. Estimated debris-flow probabilities in the drainage basins of interest ranged from a low of 26 percent in response to the 2-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall to 100 percent in response to the 10-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall. The high probabilities in all modeled drainage basins are likely due to the abundance of steep hillslopes and the extensive areas burned at moderately to high severities. The estimated volumes ranged from a low of about 2,000 cubic meters to a high of greater than 200,000 cubic meters.

Arizona↗
USGS2011

Probability and volume of potential postwildfire debris flows in the 2011 Horseshoe II burn area, southeastern Arizona

This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned in 2011 by the Horseshoe II wildfire in southeastern Arizona. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned drainage basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and debris-flows volumes for selected drainage basins. Input for the models include measures of burn severity, topographic characteristics, soil properties, and rainfall total and intensity for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, (2) 5-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, and (3) 10-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall. Estimated debris-flow probabilities in the drainage basins of interest ranged from less than 1 percent in response to the 2-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall to a high of 100 percent in response to the 10-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall. The high probabilities in all modeled drainage basins are likely due to the abundance of steep hillslopes and the extensive areas burned at moderate to high severities. The estimated debris-flow volumes ranged from a low of 20 cubic meters to a high of greater than 100,000 cubic meters.

Arizona↗
USGS2011

Probability and volume of potential postwildfire debris flows in the 2011 Wallow burn area, eastern Arizona

This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned in 2011 by the Wallow wildfire in eastern Arizona. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned drainage basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and debris-flow volumes for selected drainage basins. Input for the models include measures of burn severity, topographic characteristics, soil properties, and rainfall total and intensity for a (1) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall and (2) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall. Estimated debris-flow probabilities in the drainage basins of interest ranged from less than 1 percent in response to both the 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall and the 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall to a high of 41 percent in response to the 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall. The low probabilities in all modeled drainage basins are likely due to extensive low-gradient hillslopes, burned at low severities, and large drainage-basin areas (greater than 25 square kilometers). Estimated debris-flow volumes ranged from a low of 24 cubic meters to a high of greater than 100,000 cubic meters, indicating a considerable hazard should debris flows occur

Open-File Report↗
USGS2011

Probability and volume of potential postwildfire debris flows in the 2011 Indian Gulch burn area, near Golden, Colorado

This report presents an assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned in 2011 by the Indian Gulch wildfire near Golden, Colorado. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned drainage basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and debris-flow volumes for selected drainage basins. Input for the models include measures of burn severity, topographic characteristics, soil properties, and rainfall total and intensity for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall. Estimated debris-flow probabilities in the drainage basins of interest ranged from 2 percent in response to the 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall to a high of 76 percent in response to the 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall. Estimated debris-flow volumes ranged from a low of 840 cubic meters to a high of 26,000 cubic meters, indicating a considerable hazard should debris flows occur.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2012

Natural hazards science strategy

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events. To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science. In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms—the hazards considered in this plan. There are numerous other hazards of societal importance that are considered either only peripherally or not at all in this Strategy because they are either in another of the USGS strategic science plans (such as drought) or not in the overall mission of the USGS (such as tornados).

Open-File Report↗
USGS2013

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Powerhouse fire, southern California

Wildfire dramatically alters the hydrologic response of a watershed such that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. Existing empirical models were used to predict the probability and magnitude of debris-flow occurrence in response to a 10-year recurrence interval rainstorm for the 2013 Powerhouse fire near Lancaster, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively low probability for debris-flow occurrence in response to the design storm. However, volumetric predictions suggest that debris flows that occur may entrain a significant volume of material, with 44 of the 73 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes between 10,000 and 100,000 cubic meters. These results suggest that even though the likelihood of debris flow is relatively low, the consequences of post-fire debris-flow initiation within the burn area may be significant for downstream populations, infrastructure, and wildlife and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National-Weather-Service-issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches, and Warnings and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

California↗
USGS2013

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Mountain fire, southern California

Wildfire dramatically alters the hydrologic response of a watershed such that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. We use empirical models to predict the probability and magnitude of debris flow occurrence in response to a 10-year rainstorm for the 2013 Mountain fire near Palm Springs, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively high probability (60–100 percent) of debris flow for six of the drainage basins in the burn area in response to a 10-year recurrence interval design storm. Volumetric predictions suggest that debris flows that occur may entrain a significant volume of material, with 8 of the 14 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes greater than 100,000 cubic meters. These results suggest there is a high likelihood of significant debris-flow hazard within and downstream of the burn area for nearby populations, infrastructure, and wildlife and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National Weather Service–issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches and Warnings and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

California↗
USGS2013

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Rim Fire, Stanislaus National Forest and Yosemite National Park, California

Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. In this report, empirical models are used to predict the probability and magnitude of debris-flow occurrence in response to a 10-year rainstorm for the 2013 Rim fire in Yosemite National Park and the Stanislaus National Forest, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively high probability (60–80 percent) of debris flow for 28 of the 1,238 drainage basins in the burn area in response to a 10-year recurrence interval design storm. Predictions of debris-flow volume suggest that debris flows may entrain a significant volume of material, with 901 of the 1,238 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes greater than 10,000 cubic meters. These results of the relative combined hazard analysis suggest there is a moderate likelihood of significant debris-flow hazard within and downstream of the burn area for nearby populations, infrastructure, wildlife, and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National-Weather-Service-issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches and Warnings and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

California↗
USGS2013

Post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the 2013 Beaver Creek Fire near Hailey, central Idaho

A preliminary hazard assessment was developed for debris-flow hazards in the 465 square-kilometer (115,000 acres) area burned by the 2013 Beaver Creek fire near Hailey in central Idaho. The burn area covers all or part of six watersheds and selected basins draining to the Big Wood River and is at risk of substantial post-fire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the Intermountain Region in Western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence, potential volume of debris flows, and the combined debris-flow hazard ranking along the drainage network within the burn area and to estimate the same for analyzed drainage basins within the burn area. Input data for the empirical models included topographic parameters, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 2-year storm (13 mm); (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 10-year storm (19 mm); and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 25-year storm (22 mm). Estimated debris-flow probabilities for drainage basins upstream of 130 selected basin outlets ranged from less than 1 to 78 percent with the probabilities increasing with each increase in storm magnitude. Probabilities were high in three of the six watersheds. For the 25-year storm, probabilities were greater than 60 percent for 11 basin outlets and ranged from 50 to 60 percent for an additional 12 basin outlets. Probability estimates for stream segments within the drainage network can vary within a basin. For the 25-year storm, probabilities for stream segments within 33 basins were higher than the basin outlet, emphasizing the importance of evaluating the drainage network as well as basin outlets. Estimated debris-flow volumes for the three modeled storms range from a minimal debris flow volume of 10 cubic meters [m 3 ]) to greater than 100,000 m 3 . Estimated debris-flow volumes increased with basin size and distance downstream. For the 25-year storm, estimated debris-flow volumes were greater than 100,000 m 3 for 4 basins and between 50,000 and 100,000 m 3 for 10 basins. The debris-flow hazard rankings did not result in the highest hazard ranking of 5, indicating that none of the basins had a high probability of debris-flow occurrence and a high debris-flow volume estimate. The hazard ranking was 4 for one basin using the 10-year-recurrence storm model and for three basins using the 25-year-recurrence storm model. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where post-wildfire remediation efforts should take place within the 2- to 3-year period of increased erosional vulnerability.

Idaho↗
USGS2014

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Springs Fire, Ventura County, California

Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. In this report, empirical models are used to predict the probability and magnitude of debris-flow occurrence in response to a 10-year rainstorm for the 2013 Springs fire in Ventura County, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively high probability (60–80 percent) of debris flow for 9 of the 99 drainage basins in the burn area in response to a 10-year recurrence interval design storm. Predictions of debris-flow volume suggest that debris flows may entrain a significant volume of material, with 28 of the 99 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes greater than 10,000 cubic meters. These results of the relative combined hazard analysis suggest there is a moderate likelihood of significant debris-flow hazard within and downstream of the burn area for nearby populations, infrastructure, wildlife, and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National Weather Service-issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches, and Warnings, and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

California↗
USGS2014

Precipitation and streamflow data from the Fort Carson Military Reservation and precipitation, streamflow, and suspended-sediment data from the Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site, Southeastern Colorado, 2008-2012

In 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U. S. Department of the Army, compiled available precipitation and streamflow data for the years of 2008–2012 from the Fort Carson Military Reservation (Fort Carson) near Colorado Springs, Colo., and precipitation, streamflow, and suspended-sediment loads from the Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site (PCMS) near Trinidad, Colo. Graphical representations of the data presented herein are a continuation of work completed by the USGS in 2008 to gain a better understanding of spatial and temporal trends within the hydrologic data. Precipitation stations at Fort Carson and the PCMS were divided into groups based on their land-surface altitude (LSA) to determine if there is a spatial difference in precipitation amounts based on LSA for either military facility. Two-sample t-tests and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests indicated statistically significant differences exist between precipitation values at different groups for Fort Carson but not for the PCMS. All five precipitation stations at Fort Carson exhibit a decrease in median daily total precipitation from years 2002–2007 to 2008–2012. For the PCMS, median precipitation values decreased from the first study period to the second for the 13 stations monitored year-round except for Burson and Big Hills. Mean streamflow for 2008–2012 is less than mean streamflow for 1983–2007 for all stream-gaging stations at Fort Carson and at the PCMS. During the study period, each of the stream-gaging stations within the tributary channels at the PCMS accounted for less than three percent of the total streamflow at the Purgatoire River at Rock Crossing gage. Peak streamflow for 2008–2012 is less than peak streamflow for 2002–2007 at both Fort Carson and the PCMS. At the PCMS, mean suspended-sediment yield for 2008–2012 increased by 54 percent in comparison to the mean yield for 2002–2007. This increase is likely related to the destruction of groundcover by a series of wildfires within the PCMS in 2008 and 2011.

Colorado↗
USGS2014

Use of satellite imagery to identify vegetation cover changes following the Waldo Canyon Fire event, Colorado, 2012-2013

The Waldo Canyon Fire of 2012 was one of the most destructive wildfire events in Colorado history. The fire burned a total of 18,247 acres, claimed 2 lives, and destroyed 347 homes. The Waldo Canyon Fire continues to pose challenges to nearby communities. In a preliminary emergency assessment conducted in 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) concluded that drainage basins within and near the area affected by the Waldo Canyon Fire pose a risk for future debris flow events. Rainfall over burned, formerly vegetated surfaces resulted in multiple flood and debris flow events that affected the cities of Colorado Springs and Manitou Springs in 2013. One fatality resulted from a mudslide near Manitou Springs in August 2013. Federal, State, and local governments continue to monitor these hazards and other post-fire effects, along with the region’s ecological recovery. At the request of the Colorado Springs Office of Emergency Management, the USGS Special Applications Science Center developed a geospatial product to identify vegetation cover changes following the 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire event. Vegetation cover was derived from July 2012 WorldView-2 and September 2013 QuickBird multispectral imagery at a spatial resolution of two meters. The 2012 image was collected after the fire had reached its maximum extent. Per-pixel increases and decreases in vegetation cover were identified by measuring spectral changes that occurred between the 2012 and 2013 image dates. A Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Green-Near Infrared Index (GRNIR) were computed from each image. These spectral indices are commonly used to characterize vegetation cover and health condition, due to their sensitivity to detect foliar chlorophyll content. Vector polygons identifying surface-cover feature boundaries were derived from the 2013 imagery using image segmentation software. This geographic software groups similar image pixels into vector objects based upon their spatial and spectral characteristics. The vector dataset was then populated with the per-pixel spectral change information to provide an estimated percentage of vegetation increase or decrease of pixels within each polygon. Information collected during a field visit to the Waldo Canyon burn scar in September 2013 was used to help validate this assessment (see photographs 1-3). The numbers on the satellite images correspond to the location of the photographs. For display purposes, the polygons shown on the map represent areas where significant decrease or increase in vegetation cover occurred. Only polygons that held a 70 percent or greater cover change are shown on this map (a GIS dataset with complete information is available upon request). A significant increase in vegetation cover was found in the burned area. This increase is likely due to the growth of grasses and other herbaceous vegetation. Minimal vegetation cover decrease was detected at this threshold. This product is meant to provide a broad survey of post-fire vegetation trends within the Waldo Canyon burned area to Federal, State, and local officials. It is not designed to quantify species-level vegetation change at this time.

Colorado↗
USGS2015

Use of satellite images to determine surface-water cover during the flood event of September 13, 2013, in Lyons and western Longmont, Colorado

The flooding that occurred in north-central Colorado in 2013 was some of the most destructive in the state’s history. Following a summer of drought and wildfires, a wet weather system stalled over the Front Range area from Fort Collins in the north to Colorado Springs in the south, including the cities of Lyons and Longmont. This weather system produced rainfall amounts that greatly exceeded historical highs. The Colorado Office of Emergency Management reported at least eight deaths. More than 11,000 people were evacuated from their homes, and the flooding caused an estimated $2 billion dollars in damages. On September 14, 2013, President Barack Obama issued a major disaster declaration for 15 Colorado counties affected by the severe weather and related damage. To support local, State, and Federal disaster response coordination efforts in Colorado, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a geospatial product to identify surface-water cover from Lyons to western Longmont. This information was derived from September 13, 2013 WorldView-2 multispectral imagery at a spatial resolution of 3 meters (m). These data were orthocorrected and pan-sharpened. Three spectral indices (NDVI, NDWI, and NDTI) that were computed from this processed imagery were used to help determine the extent of the surface-water cover. The result was converted to a vector format. This surface-water cover dataset was created as a timely representation of post-flood ground conditions to support response efforts. This dataset and all processed imagery and derived products were uploaded to the USGS Hazards Data Distribution System (HDDS) website (http://hddsexplorer.usgs.gov/uplift/hdds/ ) for distribution to those responding to the flood event.

Colorado↗
USGS2015

Summarizing components of U.S. Department of the Interior vulnerability assessments to focus climate adaptation planning

A secretarial order identified climate adaptation as a critical performance objective for future management of U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) lands and resources in response to global change. Vulnerability assessments can inform climate adaptation planning by providing insight into what natural resources are most at risk and why. Three components of vulnerability—exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity—were defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as necessary for identifying climate adaptation strategies and actions. In 2011, the DOI requested all internal bureaus report ongoing or completed vulnerability assessments about a defined range of assessment targets or climate-related threats. Assessment targets were defined as freshwater resources, landscapes and wildlife habitat, native and cultural resources, and ocean health. Climate-related threats were defined as invasive species, wildfire risk, sea-level rise, and melting ice and permafrost. Four hundred and three projects were reported, but the original DOI survey did not specify that information be provided on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity collectively as part of the request, and it was unclear which projects adhered to the framework recommended by the IPCC. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center conducted a supplemental survey to determine how frequently each of the three vulnerability components was assessed. Information was categorized for 124 of the 403 reported projects (30.8 percent) based on the three vulnerability components, and it was discovered that exposure was the most common component assessed (87.9 percent), followed by sensitivity (68.5 percent) and adaptive capacity (33.1 percent). The majority of projects did not fully assess vulnerability; projects focused on landscapes/wildlife habitats and sea-level rise were among the minority that simultaneously addressed all three vulnerability components. To maintain consistency with the IPCC definition of vulnerability, DOI may want to focus initial climate adaptation planning only on the outcomes of studies that comprehensively address vulnerability as inclusive of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Although the present study results are preliminary and used an unstructured survey design, they illustrate the importance of a comprehensive and consistent vulnerability definition and of using information on vulnerability components in DOI surveys to ensure relevant data are used to identify adaptation options.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2015

Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment

The Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment was conducted in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The overall goals of the BLM Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) are to identify important ecosystems and wildlife habitats at broad spatial scales; identify where these resources are at risk from Change Agents, including development, wildfire, invasive species, disease and climate change; quantify cumulative effects of anthropogenic stressors; and assess current levels of risk to ecological resources across a range of spatial scales and jurisdictional boundaries by assessing all lands within an ecoregion. There are several components of the REAs. Management Questions, developed by the BLM and stakeholders for the ecoregion, identify the regionally significant information needed for addressing land-management responsibilities. Conservation Elements represent regionally significant species and ecological communities that are of management concern. Change Agents that currently affect or are likely to affect the condition of species and communities in the future are identified and assessed. REAs also identify areas that have high conservation potential that are referred to as “large intact areas.” At the ecoregion level, the ecological value of large intact areas is based on the assumption that because these areas have not been greatly altered by human activities (such as development), they are more likely to contain a variety of plant and animal communities and to be resilient and resistant to changes resulting from natural disturbances such as fire, insect outbreaks, and disease. The Wyoming Basin Ecoregion encompasses approximately 133,656 square kilometers (51,604.87 square miles), including portions of Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, and Montana. The Wyoming Basin has some of the highest quality wildlife habitats remaining in the Intermountain West. The wide variety of habitats includes intermountain basins dominated by sagebrush shrublands interspersed with deciduous and conifer woodlands and montane or subalpine forests at higher elevations. The Wyoming Basin also supports ranching and agricultural operations that are important to the region’s economy and vital to conserving habitats for wildlife. The region also contains abundant energy resources, including large natural gas reserves and areas of high wind-energy potential. Combined with increased residential and industrial development, fast-paced energy development is resulting in notable land-use changes, including habitat loss and fragmentation. In the Wyoming Basin REA, we evaluated the following seven communities as Conservation Elements: streams and rivers, wetlands, riparian forests and shrublands, sagebrush steppe, desert shrublands, foothill shrublands and woodlands, and mountain forests and alpine zones. We evaluated a total of 14 species and species assemblages as Conservation Elements: aspen forests and woodlands, five-needle pine forests and woodlands, juniper woodlands, cutthroat trout, three-species fish assemblage, northern leatherside chub, sauger, spadefoot assemblage, greater sage-grouse, golden eagle, ferruginous hawk, sagebrush-obligate birds, pygmy rabbit, and mule deer. We evaluated Management Questions (Core and Integrated) for each species and community for the Wyoming Basin REA. Core Management Questions address primary management issues, including (1) where is the Conservation Element, and what are its key ecological attributes (characteristics of species and communities that may affect their long-term persistence or viability); (2) what and where are the Change Agents; and (3) how do the Change Agents affect the key ecological attributes? Integrated Management Questions synthesize the Core Management Questions as follows: (1) where are the areas with high landscape-level ecological values; (2) where are the areas with high landscape-level risks; and (3) where are the potential areas for conservation, restoration, and development? The associated maps and key findings for each Management Question are summarized for each Conservation Element in individual chapters. Additional chapters on landscape intactness and an REA synthesis are included.

Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2015

Fire patterns in the range of the greater sage-grouse, 1984-2013 - Implications for conservation and management

Fire ranks among the top three threats to the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) throughout its range, and among the top two threats in the western part of its range. The national research strategy for this species and the recent U.S. Department of the Interior Secretarial Order 3336 call for science-based threats assessment of fire to inform conservation planning and fire management efforts. The cornerstone of such assessments is a clear understanding of where fires are occurring and what aspects of fire regimes may be shifting outside of their historical range of variation. This report fulfills this need by describing patterns of fire area, fire size, fire rotation, and fire season length and timing from 1984 to 2013 across the range of the greater sage-grouse. This information need is further addressed by evaluating the ecological and management implications of these fire patterns. Analyses are stratified by major vegetation types and the seven greater sage-grouse management zones, delineated regionally as four western and three eastern management zones. Soil temperature and moisture indicators of resilience to fire and resistance to cheatgrass invasion, and the potential for establishment of a grass/fire cycle, are used as unifying concepts in developing fire threat assessments for each analysis strata. The results indicate that fire threats are higher in the four western than in the three eastern management zones. Among the four western management zones, the Snake River Plain and the Columbia Basin ranked somewhat higher than the Southern Great Basin and Northern Great Basin in terms of fire effects on sage-grouse habitat. These results support the previous high ranking of fire as a threat to the greater sage-grouse in the western region. In contrast, considering the low rankings for fire threats in the eastern region, it may be useful to reconsider the relative importance of wildfire as a threat to greater sage-grouse in those three management zones.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oreg↗
USGS2016

Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States

Climate change impacts ecosystems in many ways, from effects on species to phenology to wildfire dynamics. Assessing the potential vulnerability of ecosystems to future changes in climate is an important first step in prioritizing and planning for conservation. Although assessments of climate change vulnerability commonly are done for species, fewer have been done for ecosystems. To aid regional conservation planning efforts, we assessed climate change vulnerability for ecosystems in the Southeastern United States and Caribbean. First, we solicited input from experts to create a list of candidate ecosystems for assessment. From that list, 12 ecosystems were selected for a vulnerability assessment that was based on a synthesis of available geographic information system (GIS) data and literature related to 3 components of vulnerability—sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. This literature and data synthesis comprised “Phase I” of the assessment. Sensitivity is the degree to which the species or processes in the ecosystem are affected by climate. Exposure is the likely future change in important climate and sea level variables. Adaptive capacity is the degree to which ecosystems can adjust to changing conditions. Where available, GIS data relevant to each of these components were used. For example, we summarized observed and projected climate, protected areas existing in 2011, projected sea-level rise, and projected urbanization across each ecosystem’s distribution. These summaries were supplemented with information in the literature, and a short narrative assessment was compiled for each ecosystem. We also summarized all information into a qualitative vulnerability rating for each ecosystem. Next, for 2 of the 12 ecosystems (East Gulf Coastal Plain Near-Coast Pine Flatwoods and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland), the NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI) framework was used as an alternative approach for assessing vulnerability. Use of the HCCVI approach comprised “Phase II” of the assessment. This approach uses summaries of GIS data and models to develop a series of numeric indices for components of vulnerability. We incorporated many of the data sources used in Phase I, but added the results of several other data sources, including climate envelope modeling and vegetation dynamics modeling. The results of Phase II were high and low numeric vulnerability ratings for mid-century and the end of century for each ecosystem. The high and low ratings represented the potential range of vulnerability scores owing to uncertainties in future climate conditions and ecosystem effects. Of the 12 ecosystems assessed in the first approach, five were rated as having high vulnerability (Caribbean Coastal Mangrove, Caribbean Montane Wet Elfin Forest, East Gulf Coastal Plain Southern Loess Bluff Forest, Edwards Plateau Limestone Shrubland, and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland). Six ecosystems had medium vulnerability, and one ecosystem had low vulnerability. For the two ecosystems assessed with both approaches, vulnerability ratings generally agreed. The assessment concluded by comparing the two approaches, identifying critical research needs, and making suggestions for future ecosystem vulnerability assessments in the Southeast and beyond. Research needs include reducing uncertainty in the degree of climate exposure likely in the future, as well as acquiring more information on how climate might affect biotic interactions and hydrologic processes. Ideally, a comprehensive vulnerability assessment would include both the narrative summaries that resulted from the synthesis in Phase I, as well as a numeric index that incorporates uncertainty as in Phase II.

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