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At least 1,153 records · Page 64Linked to original sources

Dissolved organic carbon and chromophoric dissolved organic matter properties of rivers in the USA

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) parameters were measured over a range of discharge in 30 U.S. rivers, covering a diverse assortment of fluvial ecosystems in terms of watershed size and landscape drained. Relationships between CDOM absorption at a range of wavelengths (a 254 , a 350 , a 440 ) and DOC in the 30 watersheds were found to correlate strongly and positively for the majority of U.S. rivers. However, four rivers (Colorado, Colombia, Rio Grande and St. Lawrence) exhibited statistically weak relationships between CDOM absorption and DOC. These four rivers are atypical, as they either drain from the Great Lakes or experience significant impoundment of water within their watersheds, and they exhibited values for dissolved organic matter (DOM) parameters indicative of autochthonous or anthropogenic sources or photochemically degraded allochthonous DOM and thus a decoupling between CDOM and DOC. CDOM quality parameters in the 30 rivers were found to be strongly correlated to DOM compositional metrics derived via XAD fractionation, highlighting the potential for examining DOM biochemical quality from CDOM measurements. This study establishes the ability to derive DOC concentration from CDOM absorption for the majority of U.S. rivers, describes characteristics of riverine systems where such an approach is not valid, and emphasizes the possibility of examining DOM composition and thus biogeochemical function via CDOM parameters. Therefore, the usefulness of CDOM measurements, both laboratory-based analyses and in situ instrumentation, for improving spatial and temporal resolution of DOC fluxes and DOM dynamics in future studies is considerable in a range of biogeochemical studies.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗

Measuring the impacts of natural amenities and the US-Mexico Border, on housing values in the Santa Cruz Watershed, using spatially-weighted hedonic modeling

Assessing the sustainability of International policy or urban development requires consideration of the impacts of these decisions on Ecosystem Services, or the values that humans receive from the ecosystem, including market-land price, environmental, and human well-being values. Hedonic modeling helps to identify the market land price, considering the price is determined by multiple factors affecting it. In U.S. portions of the bi-national Santa Cruz Watershed (SCW), situated at the Arizona-Sonora International border, natural amenities like the riparian corridor and green space have been documented as positive amenities that boost local real estate. The goal of this research is to isolate the effects of the US-Mexico border and known environmental or natural amenities or disamenities on housing prices in the binational watershed, while controlling for housing stock characteristics and social-environmental vulnerability. In the ultimate analysis, the mean house values within census blocks will be used to represent local housing stock. A human well-being index that measures people’s socio-environmental vulnerability for the entire SCW is in publication that is based on access to infrastructure, number of bedrooms per house and other social data from the binational census and local colonias database will also be compared. The hedonic pricing method will be applied to statistically estimate a function that relates property values to the variables described. This presentation will provide a synopsis of the quality of life and hedonics literature review used to develop this research agenda. Variables relevant for local environmental management, having significant effects on property values, will be discussed. The final results obtained from this study can be used determine the benefits of preserving or developing land binationally and will be uploaded to the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM), an online Ecosystem Services tool, being created to promote sustainable development in the Borderlands.

Conference Paper↗

Use of Doppler velocity radars to monitor and predict debris and flood wave velocities and travel times in post-wildfire basins

The magnitude and timing of extreme events such as debris and floodflows (collectively referred to as floodflows) in post-wildfire basins are difficult to measure and are even more difficult to predict. To address this challenge, a sensor ensemble consisting of noncontact, ground-based (near-field), Doppler velocity (velocity) and pulsed (stage or gage height) radars, rain gages, and a redundant radio communication network was leveraged to monitor flood wave velocities, to validate travel times, and to compliment observations from NEXRAD weather radar. The sensor ensemble (DEbris and Floodflow Early warNing System, DEFENS) was deployed in Waldo Canyon, Pike National Forest, Colorado, USA, which was burned entirely (100 percent burned) by the Waldo Canyon fire during the summer of 2012 ( MTBS, 2020 ). Surface velocity, stage, and precipitation time series collected during the DEFENS deployment on 10 August 2015 were used to monitor and predict flood wave velocities and travel times as a function of stream discharge (discharge; streamflow). The 10 August 2015 event exhibited spatial and temporal variations in rainfall intensity and duration that resulted in a discharge equal to 5.01 cubic meters per second (m 3 /s). Discharge was estimated post-event using a slope-conveyance indirect discharge method and was verified using velocity radars and the probability concept algorithm. Mean flood wave velocities – represented by the kinematic celerity ( c k = 2.619 m e t e r s p e r s e c o n d , m / s ± 0.556 p e r c e n t "> 𝑐 𝑘 = 2.619 𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑, m/s ± 0.556 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡) and dynamic celerity ( c d = 3.533 m / s ± 0.181 p e r c e n t a n d t h e i r u n c e r t a i n t i e s "> 𝑐 𝑑 = 3.533 m/s ± 0.181 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡) and their uncertainties were computed. L-moments were computed to establish probability density functions (PDFs) and associated statistics for each of the at-a-section hydraulic parameters to serve as a workflow for implementing alert networks in hydrologically similar basins that lack data. Measured flood wave velocities and travel times agreed well with predicted values. Absolute percent differences between predicted and measured flood wave velocities ranged from 1.6 percent to 49 percent and varied with water slope, hydraulic radius, and depth. The kinematic celerity was a better predictor for steep slopes and wide flood plains associated with the Upper Waldo and Middle Waldo radar streamgages; whereas, the dynamic celerity was a better surrogate for shallow slopes and incised channels such as the Lower Waldo radar streamgage. The method demonstrates the potential extensibility of a post-wildfire warning system by (1) leveraging multiple systems (i.e., weather radar, near-field velocity and stage radars, and rain gages) for accurate and timely warnings of debris and floodflows, (2) establishing an order of operations to site, install, and operate near-field radars and conventional rain gages to record floodflows, forecast travel times, and document geomorphic change in this basin and hydrologically similar basins that lack data, and (3) communicating data operationally with the Colorado Department of Transportation engineering staff, National Weather Service forecasters, and emergency managers.

Colorado↗

Land change variability and human-environment dynamics in the United States Great Plains

Land use and land cover changes have complex linkages to climate variability and change, biophysical resources, and socioeconomic driving forces. To assess these land change dynamics and their causes in the Great Plains, we compare and contrast contemporary changes across 16 ecoregions using Landsat satellite data and statistical analysis. Large-area change analysis of agricultural regions is often hampered by change detection error and the tendency for land conversions to occur at the local-scale. To facilitate a regional-scale analysis, a statistical sampling design of randomly selected 10 km × 10 km blocks is used to efficiently identify the types and rates of land conversions for four time intervals between 1973 and 2000, stratified by relatively homogenous ecoregions. Nearly 8% of the overall Great Plains region underwent land-use and land-cover change during the study period, with a substantial amount of ecoregion variability that ranged from less than 2% to greater than 13%. Agricultural land cover declined by more than 2% overall, with variability contingent on the differential characteristics of regional human–environment systems. A large part of the Great Plains is in relatively stable land cover. However, other land systems with significant biophysical and climate limitations for agriculture have high rates of land change when pushed by economic, policy, technology, or climate forcing factors. The results indicate the regionally based potential for land cover to persist or fluctuate as land uses are adapted to spatially and temporally variable forcing factors.

Colorado;Iowa;Kansas;Minnesota;Missouri;Montana;Ne↗

Lessons learned implementing an operational continuous United States national land change monitoring capability: The Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) approach

Growing demands for temporally specific information on land surface change are fueling a new generation of maps and statistics that can contribute to understanding geographic and temporal patterns of change across large regions, provide input into a wide range of environmental modeling studies, clarify the drivers of change, and provide more timely information for land managers. To meet these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey has implemented a capability to monitor land surface change called the Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiative. This paper describes the methodological foundations and lessons learned during development and testing of the LCMAP approach. Testing and evaluation of a suite of 10 annual land cover and land surface change data sets over six diverse study areas across the United States revealed good agreement with other published maps (overall agreement ranged from 73% to 87%) as well as several challenges that needed to be addressed to meet the goals of robust, repeatable, and geographically consistent monitoring results from the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm. First, the high spatial and temporal variability of observational frequency led to differences in the number of changes identified, so CCDC was modified such that change detection is dependent on observational frequency. Second, the CCDC classification methodology was modified to improve its ability to characterize gradual land surface changes. Third, modifications were made to the classification element of CCDC to improve the representativeness of training data, which necessitated replacing the random forest algorithm with a boosted decision tree. Following these modifications, assessment of prototype Version 1 LCMAP results showed improvements in overall agreement (ranging from 85% to 90%).

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

Post-fire seed dispersal of a wind-dispersed shrub declined with distance to seed source, yet had high levels of unexplained variation

Plant-population recovery across large disturbance areas is often seed-limited. An understanding of seed dispersal patterns is fundamental for determining natural-regeneration potential. However, forecasting seed dispersal rates across heterogeneous landscapes remains a challenge. Our objectives were to determine (i) the landscape patterning of post-disturbance seed dispersal, and underlying sources of variation and the scale at which they operate, and (ii) how the natural seed dispersal patterns relate to a seed augmentation strategy. Vertical seed trapping experiments were replicated across 2 years and five burned and/or managed landscapes in sagebrush steppe. Multi-scale sampling and hierarchical Bayesian models were used to determine the scale of spatial variation in seed dispersal. We then integrated an empirical and mechanistic dispersal kernel for wind-dispersed species to project rates of seed dispersal and compared natural seed arrival to typical post-fire aerial seeding rates. Seeds were captured across the range of tested dispersal distances, up to a maximum distance of 26 m from seed-source plants, although dispersal to the furthest traps was variable. Seed dispersal was better explained by transect heterogeneity than by patch or site heterogeneity (transects were nested within patch within site). The number of seeds captured varied from a modelled mean of ~13 m −2 adjacent to patches of seed-producing plants, to nearly none at 10 m from patches, standardized over a 49-day period. Maximum seed dispersal distances on average were estimated to be 16 m according to a novel modelling approach using a ‘latent’ variable for dispersal distance based on seed trapping heights. Surprisingly, statistical representation of wind did not improve model fit and seed rain was not related to the large variation in total available seed of adjacent patches. The models predicted severe seed limitations were likely on typical burned areas, especially compared to the mean 95–250 seeds per m 2 that previous literature suggested were required to generate sagebrush recovery. More broadly, our Bayesian data fusion approach could be applied to other cases that require quantitative estimates of long-distance seed dispersal across heterogeneous landscapes.

Idaho↗

Surface-Water Hydrology and Quality at the Pike Hill Superfund Site, Corinth, Vermont, October 2004 to December 2005

The hydrology and quality of surface water in and around the Pike Hill Brook watershed, in Corinth, Vermont, was studied from October 2004 to December 2005 by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). Pike Hill was mined intermittently for copper from 1847 to 1919 and the site is known to be contributing trace elements and acidity to Pike Hill Brook and an unnamed tributary to Cookville Brook. The site has been listed as a Superfund site since 2004. Streamflow, specific conductance, pH, and water temperature were measured continuously and monthly at three sites on Pike Hill Brook to determine the variation in these parameters over an annual cycle. Synoptic water-quality sampling was done at 10 stream sites in October 2004, April 2005, and June 2005 and at 13 stream sites in August 2005 to characterize the quality of surface water in the watershed on a seasonal and spatial basis, as well as to assess the effects of wetlands on water quality. Samples for analysis of benthic macroinvertebrate populations were collected at 11 stream sites in August 2005. Water samples were analyzed for 5 major ions and 32 trace elements. Concentrations of trace elements at sites in the Pike Hill Brook watershed exceeded USEPA National Recommended Water Quality Criteria acute and chronic toxicity standards for aluminum, iron, cadmium, copper, and zinc. Concentrations of copper exceeded the chronic criteria in an unnamed tributary to Cookville Brook in one sample. Concentrations of sulfate, calcium, aluminum, iron, cadmium, copper, and zinc decreased with distance from a site directly downstream from the mine (site 1), as a result of dilution and through sorption and precipitation of the trace elements. Maximum concentrations of aluminum, iron, cadmium, copper, and zinc were observed during spring snowmelt. Concentrations of sulfate, calcium, cadmium, copper, and zinc, and instantaneous loads of calcium and aluminum were statistically different (p<0.05) among the three continuously monitored sites (sites 1, 4, and 5). Instantaneous loads of aluminum, iron, and copper decreased by one to three orders of magnitude from site 1 to a site 1.1 mi downstream (site 4). Instantaneous loads of sulfate were similar between sites 1, 4, and at a site 3 mi downstream (site 5). Instantaneous loads of cadmium and zinc were similar between sites 1 and 4, and loads of iron and copper were similar between sites 4 and 5. Loads of chemical constituents were compared at site 1 (closest to the mine waste piles) and site 5 (near the mouth of Pike Hill Brook and below a majority of the wetlands). Annually, the loads of dissolved cadmium and zinc at site 1 were about five times greater than loads at site 5, and the load of dissolved copper at site 1 was about 17 times greater than at site 5. The ratio of loads for dissolved cadmium, copper, and zinc to total cadmium, copper, and zinc at site 1 was about 1. Samples collected in Pike Hill Brook upstream and downstream from the wetlands during low flows in August 2005 showed that oxidation of ferrous iron and precipitation of iron-hydroxides were probably not affecting trace metals in the wetlands through sorption; however, a significant portion of the iron entering the wetlands was in particulate form and may have transported sorbed copper and other trace metals. Thus, aerobic activity in the wetlands was probably not affecting metal cycling in the watershed. Concentrations and loads of sulfate may be unlikely to define unequivocally the role of the wetlands with regard to anaerobic bacterial sulfate reduction; however, bacterial sulfate removal may have affected loads of sulfate. Loads of copper increased downstream from the wetlands and may reflect the reductive dissolution of ferric hydroxide particulates in anaerobic parts of the wetlands.Concentrations of dissolved iron increased downstream from the wetlands. The most apparent effects on the macroinvertebr

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Evaluation of groundwater levels in the South Platte River alluvial aquifer, Colorado, 1953-2012, and design of initial well networks for monitoring groundwater levels

The South Platte River and underlying alluvial aquifer form an important hydrologic resource in northeastern Colorado that provides water to population centers along the Front Range and to agricultural communities across the rural plains. Water is regulated based on seniority of water rights and delivered using a network of administration structures that includes ditches, reservoirs, wells, impacted river sections, and engineered recharge areas. A recent addendum to Colorado water law enacted during 2002-2003 curtailed pumping from thousands of wells that lacked authorized augmentation plans. The restrictions in pumping were hypothesized to increase water storage in the aquifer, causing groundwater to rise near the land surface at some locations. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board and the Colorado Water Institute, completed an assessment of 60 years (yr) of historical groundwater-level records collected from 1953 to 2012 from 1,669 wells. Relations of "high" groundwater levels, defined as depth to water from 0 to 10 feet (ft) below land surface, were compared to precipitation, river discharge, and 36 geographic and administrative attributes to identify natural and human controls in areas with shallow groundwater. Averaged per decade and over the entire aquifer, depths to groundwater varied between 24 and 32 ft over the 60-yr record. The shallowest average depth to water was identified during 1983-1992, which also recorded the highest levels of decadal precipitation. Average depth to water was greatest (32 ft) during 1953-1962 and intermediate (30 ft) in the recent decade (2003-2012) following curtailment of pumping. Between the decades 1993-2002 and 2003-2012, groundwater levels declined about 2 ft across the aquifer. In comparison, in areas where groundwater levels were within 20 ft of the land surface, observed groundwater levels rose about 0.6 ft, on average, during the same period, which demonstrated preferential rise in areas with shallow groundwater. Approximately 29 percent of water-level observations were identified as high groundwater in the South Platte River alluvial aquifer over the 60-yr record. High groundwater levels were found in 17 to 33 percent of wells examined by decade, with the largest percentages occurring over three decades from 1963 to 1992. The recent decade (2003-2012) exhibited an intermediate percentage (25 percent) of wells with high groundwater levels but also had the highest percentage (30 percent) of high groundwater observations, although results by observations were similar (26-29 percent) over three decades prior, from 1963 to 1992. Major sections of the aquifer from north of Sterling to Julesburg and areas near Greeley, La Salle, and Gilcrest were identified with the highest frequencies of high groundwater levels. Changes in groundwater levels were evaluated using Kendal line and least trimmed squares regression methods using a significance level of 0.01 and statistical power of 0.8. During 2003-2012, following curtailment of pumping, 88 percent of wells and 81 percent of subwatershed areas with significant trends in groundwater levels exhibited rising water levels. Over the complete 60-yr record, however, 66 percent of wells and 57 percent of subwatersheds with significant groundwater-level trends still showed declining water levels; rates of groundwater-level change were typically less than 0.125 ft/yr in areas near the South Platte River, with greater declines along the southern tributaries. In agreement, 58 percent of subwatersheds evaluated between 1963-1972 and 2003-2012 showed net declines in average decadal groundwater levels. More areas had groundwater decline in upgradient sections to the west and rise in downgradient sections to the east, implying a redistribution of water has occurred in some areas of the aquifer. Precipitation was identified as having the strongest statistically significant correlations to river discharge over annual and decadal periods (Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.5 and 0.8, respectively, and statistical significance defined by p-values less than 0.05). Correlation coefficients between river discharge and frequency of high groundwater levels were statistically significant at 0.4 annually and 0.6 over decadal periods, indicating that periods of high river flow were often coincident with high groundwater conditions. Over seasonal periods in five of the six decades examined, peak high groundwater levels occurred after spring runoff from July to September when administrative structures were most active. Between 1993-2002 and 2003-2012, groundwater levels rose while river discharge decreased, in part from greater reliance on surface water and curtailed pumping from wells without augmentation plans. Geographic attributes of elevation and proximity to streams and rivers showed moderate correlations to high groundwater levels in wells used for observing groundwater levels (correlation coefficients of 0.3 to 0.4). Local depressions and regional lows within the aquifer were identified as areas of potential shallow groundwater. Wells close to the river regularly indicated high groundwater levels, while those within depleted tributaries tended to have low frequencies of high groundwater levels. Some attributes of administrative structures were spatially correlated to high groundwater levels at moderate to high magnitudes (correlation coefficients of 0.3 to 0.7). The number of affected river reaches or recharge areas that surround a well where groundwater levels were observed and its distance from the nearest well field showed the strongest controls on high groundwater levels. Influences of administrative structures on groundwater levels were in some cases local over a mile or less but could extend to several miles, often manifesting as diffuse effects from multiple surrounding structures. A network of candidate monitoring wells was proposed to initiate a regional monitoring program. Consistent monitoring and analysis of groundwater levels will be needed for informed decisions to optimize beneficial use of water and to limit high groundwater levels in susceptible areas. Finalization of the network will require future field reconnaissance to assess local site conditions and discussions with State authorities.

Colorado↗

A statistical method to predict flow permanence in dryland streams from time series of stream temperature

Intermittent and ephemeral streams represent more than half of the length of the global river network. Dryland freshwater ecosystems are especially vulnerable to changes in human-related water uses as well as shifts in terrestrial climates. Yet, the description and quantification of patterns of flow permanence in these systems is challenging mostly due to difficulties in instrumentation. Here, we took advantage of existing stream temperature datasets in dryland streams in the northwest Great Basin desert, USA, to extract critical information on climate-sensitive patterns of flow permanence. We used a signal detection technique, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), to extract information from daily time series of stream temperature to diagnose patterns of stream drying. Specifically, we applied HMMs to time series of daily standard deviation (SD) of stream temperature (i.e., dry stream channels typically display highly variable daily temperature records compared to wet stream channels) between April and August (2015–2016). We used information from paired stream and air temperature data loggers as well as co-located stream temperature data loggers with electrical resistors as confirmatory sources of the timing of stream drying. We expanded our approach to an entire stream network to illustrate the utility of the method to detect patterns of flow permanence over a broader spatial extent. We successfully identified and separated signals characteristic of wet and dry stream conditions and their shifts over time. Most of our study sites within the entire stream network exhibited a single state over the entire season (80%), but a portion of them showed one or more shifts among states (17%). We provide recommendations to use this approach based on a series of simple steps. Our findings illustrate a successful method that can be used to rigorously quantify flow permanence regimes in streams using existing records of stream temperature.

Nevada, Oregon↗

Optimal treatment allocations in space and time for online control of anemerging infectious disease

A key component in controlling the spread of an epidemic is deciding where, when and to whom to apply an intervention. We develop a framework for using data to inform these decisions in realtime. We formalize a treatment allocation strategy as a sequence of functions, one per treatment period, that map up‐to‐date information on the spread of an infectious disease to a subset of locations where treatment should be allocated. An optimal allocation strategy optimizes some cumulative outcome, e.g. the number of uninfected locations, the geographic footprint of the disease or the cost of the epidemic. Estimation of an optimal allocation strategy for an emerging infectious disease is challenging because spatial proximity induces interference between locations, the number of possible allocations is exponential in the number of locations, and because disease dynamics and intervention effectiveness are unknown at outbreak. We derive a Bayesian on‐line estimator of the optimal allocation strategy that combines simulation–optimization with Thompson sampling. The estimator proposed performs favourably in simulation experiments. This work is motivated by and illustrated using data on the spread of white nose syndrome, which is a highly fatal infectious disease devastating bat populations in North America.

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C↗

2017-2018 Palila abundance estimates and trend

The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually from 1998–2018 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2017 population was estimated at 1,177−1,813 birds (point estimate: 1,461) and the 2018 population was estimated at 778−1,420 (point estimate: 1,051). Only two palila were detected outside the core survey area during a mountain-wide survey in 2017, suggesting that most, if not all, palila inhabit the western slope during the annual survey period. Since 1998, the size of the area containing palila detections on the western slope did not show a significant change, suggesting that the range of the species has remained stable; although this area represents only about 5% of its historical extent. During 1998−2003, palila numbers fluctuated moderately (coefficient of variation [CV] = 0.20). After peaking in 2003, population estimates declined steadily through 2011; since 2010, estimates have continued to decline at a slower rate. The average rate of decline during 1998−2018 was 168 birds per year with very strong statistical support for an overall declining trend in abundance. Over the 21-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 76% decline in the population.

Hawai`i↗

Simulating present and future groundwater/surface-water interactions and stream temperatures in Beaver Creek, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

In many places, coldwater ecosystems are facing increasing pressure from anthropogenic warming. This study examined stream temperatures and the water balance in the Beaver Creek watershed on the Kenai Peninsula in south-central Alaska—an area that is experiencing rapid warming. Low-gradient streams near the Kenai coast provide important spawning and rearing habitat for salmon but may be especially vulnerable to rising temperatures, because of long residence times, inflows from abundant riparian wetlands, and reliance on groundwater discharge that may also warm, or decrease in volume with rising evapotranspiration. In recent decades, observed maximum 7-day temperatures have consistently exceeded statistical (regression-based) projections. Here we simulate total streamflows and temperatures with a physics-based model that links the Soil Water Balance, MODFLOW 6 and SNTEMP simulation codes on a 7-day timestep. The model is based on existing data and groundwater levels, instream flows, and stream temperatures collected during 2019–23. Future climate scenarios were developed for 2023–50 from downscaled climate projections. Results indicate that groundwater discharge is about 64 percent of the total streamflow during the months of May through September. Total streamflow and groundwater discharge are expected to remain similar to current conditions through 2050. Stream temperatures are expected to rise; by midcentury, near the Beaver Creek mouth the model predicts 34 to 63 additional days per year with average weekly temperatures above 13 degrees Celsius, 14 to 81 additional days with average weekly temperatures above 15 degrees Celsius, and routine exceedances of 20 degrees Celsius during the warmest periods. Projected stream temperatures vary spatially. Areas of high groundwater inflows in the lower main stem and some tributaries may be most resilient to warming air temperatures during dry conditions. During storm events, groundwater-dominated tributaries may have the coolest stream temperatures.

Alaska↗

USGS approach to real-time estimation of earthquake-triggered ground failure - Results of 2015 workshop

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards and Landslide Hazards Programs are developing plans to add quantitative hazard assessments of earthquake-triggered landsliding and liquefaction to existing real-time earthquake products (ShakeMap, ShakeCast, PAGER) using open and readily available methodologies and products. To date, prototype global statistical models have been developed and are being refined, improved, and tested. These models are a good foundation, but much work remains to achieve robust and defensible models that meet the needs of end users. In order to establish an implementation plan and identify research priorities, the USGS convened a workshop in Golden, Colorado, in October 2015. This document summarizes current (as of early 2016) capabilities, research and operational priorities, and plans for further studies that were established at this workshop. Specific priorities established during the meeting include (1) developing a suite of alternative models; (2) making use of higher resolution and higher quality data where possible; (3) incorporating newer global and regional datasets and inventories; (4) reducing barriers to accessing inventory datasets; (5) developing methods for using inconsistent or incomplete datasets in aggregate; (6) developing standardized model testing and evaluation methods; (7) improving ShakeMap shaking estimates, particularly as relevant to ground failure, such as including topographic amplification and accounting for spatial variability; and (8) developing vulnerability functions for loss estimates.

Open-File Report↗

Assessment and characterization of ephemeral stream channel stability and mechanisms affecting erosion in Grand Valley, western Colorado, 2018–21

The Grand Valley in western Colorado is in the semiarid Southwest United States. The north side of the Grand Valley has many ungaged ephemeral streams, which are of particular interest because (1) the underlying bedrock geology, Late Cretaceous Mancos Shale, is a sedimentary rock deposit identified as a major salinity contributor to the Colorado River and (2) despite infrequent streamflows of short duration, monsoon-derived floods in these ephemeral streams can carry substantial amounts of sediment downstream, affecting upstream and downstream banks and channel cross sections. The study area is of interest, because salinity, or the total dissolved solids concentration, in the Colorado River causes an estimated $300 million to $400 million per year in economic damages in the United States, and it is estimated 62 percent of the Upper Colorado River Basin’s total dissolved solid loads originate from geologic sources. In an effort to minimize salt contributions to the Colorado River from public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, a comprehensive salinity control approach is typically used to reduce nonpoint sources of salinity through land management techniques and practices. In 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, began an assessment of ephemeral streams located on the north side of the Grand Valley, western Colorado, to characterize stream channel stability and identify mechanisms affecting erosion. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a method for automatically extracting channel cross-section geometry from existing remotely sensed terrain models. Based on estimated flood stage and surrogate streamflows, hydraulic characteristics were calculated. Furthermore, the channel geometries and hydraulic characteristics were used to estimate channel stability using a statistical model. Cross-section stabilities were determined from a stream channel stability assessment for a subset of 1,406 visited (field observed) locations out of 13,415 cross sections, which were delineated from remotely sensed terrain models. The application of Manning’s resistance equation in combination with multiple logistic regression models demonstrated channel stability can be estimated with a 0.845 goodness of fit for a validation dataset when using a combination of drainage area, width-to-depth ratio, sinuosity, and shear stress as the explanatory variables. Stream channel stability was extrapolated for 13,415 unvisited (not field observed) cross sections using the multiple logistic regression model and defined explanatory variables. Mapping of the ephemeral streams and their associated stabilities may be used by the Bureau of Land Management to prioritize areas for remediation or changes in management strategies to reduce sediment and salinity loading to the Colorado River. The study found channel stability within the ephemeral streams to be spatially variable, longitudinally discontinuous, and dictated by changes in channel bed slope. The stable ephemeral streams were relatively wide and shallow and often had smaller drainage areas with less potential for producing shear stresses capable of overcoming channel adhesion. A change in channel bed slope can provide the means necessary to generate shear stresses appropriate to initiate erosion and a subsequent stability transition to incising channels. Channel widening happens when either or both banks of an incising channel reach a critical height for mass wasting, or when channel curvature causes higher sidewall stress. Regardless, widening channels can promote increases in sinuosity and subsequently reduce steep channel bed slopes. Consequently, stable and widening channels can have comparable bed slopes, making channel bed slope a poor explanatory variable to predict channel stability overall, despite its function to initiate channel instability. The results were based on a surrogate 0.10 annual exceedance probability (AEP; return period equal to the 10-year flood) interval streamflow, although it was recognized fluctuations in streamflow would also affect channel stability. Past and current changes within the study area affect streamflow; therefore, mechanisms affecting erosion include land use disturbances, soil compaction, loss of vegetation cover, drought, less frequent and more extreme precipitation, and fires—which all intensify the potential runoff and erosion within the study area.

Colorado↗

Population trends of native Hawaiian forest birds, 1976–2008: the data and statistical analyses

The Hawaii Forest Bird Interagency Database Project has produced a centralized database of forest bird survey data collected in Hawai`i since the mid-1970s. The database contains over 1.1 million bird observation records of 90 species from almost 600 surveys on the main Hawaiian Islands—a dataset including nearly all surveys from that period. The primary objective has been to determine the status and trends of native Hawaiian forest birds derived from this comprehensive dataset. We generated species-specific density estimates from each survey and tested for changes in population densities over the longest possible temporal period. Although this cumulative data set seems enormous and represents the best available information on status of Hawaiian forest birds, detecting meaningful population distribution, density, and trends for forest birds in Hawai`i has been difficult. These population parameters are best derived from long-term, large-scale, standardized monitoring programs. The basis for long-term population monitoring in Hawai`i was established by the Hawaii Forest Bird Survey of 1976-1983 (Scott et al. 1986). Since then, however, only key areas have been resurveyed, primarily to monitor rare species. The majority of surveys since the early 1980s have been conducted by numerous, independent programs, resulting in some inconsistencies in methodology and sampling that in some cases has been intermittent and usually at limited scale (temporally or spatially). Thus, despite the consolidation of data into a centralized database, our understanding of population patterns is rather limited, especially at the regional and landscape scales. To rectify their deficiency, we present a framework to improve the understanding of forest bird trends in Hawai`i through an overarching monitoring design that allocates sampling at appropriate regional and temporal scales. Despite the limitations of the current monitoring effort, important generalities stand out vividly from the multiplicity of species-specific trends. Overall, in marginal habitats the Hawaiian passerine fauna continues to decline, with populations of most species shrinking in size and distribution. Since the early 1980s, 10 species that were rare at the time may now be extinct, although one, the `Alalā (Corvus hawaiiensis), survives in captivity. Dedicated search effort for the remaining nine species has been inadequate. Of the 22 species remaining, eight have declined, five appear to be stable, two are increasing, and the trend for seven species is unclear. On the bright side, native passerines, including endangered species, appear to be stable or increasing in areas with large tracts of native forest above 1,500 m elevation, even while decreasing in more fragmented or disturbed habitats, particularly at lower elevation. For example, all eight native species resident at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge have shown stable trends or significant increases in density over the long-term. Thus, native birds are ever more restricted to high-elevation forest and woodland refugia. It is these upland habitats that require sustained and all-out restoration to prevent further extinctions of Hawaiian forest birds.

Technical Report↗

Groundwater quality in Geauga County, Ohio: status, including detection frequency of methane in water wells, 2009, and changes during 1978-2009

Domestic wells that are not safeguarded by regular water-quality testing provide drinking water for 79 percent of the residents of Geauga County, in northeastern Ohio. Since 1978, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has worked cooperatively with the Board of Commissioners and Geauga County Planning Commission to monitor the quality of groundwater in four commonly used aquifers in county&mdash;the glacial deposits, the Pottsville Formation, the Cuyahoga Group, and the Berea Sandstone. A 33-percent growth in population from 1980 to 2009 increased the potential for humans to influence groundwater resources by withdrawing more groundwater, disposing of more human waste near the land surface, treating an expanded network of township roads with deicing salt, and likely using more solvents, pesticides, and other chemicals on the land surface than were used in preceding decades. To describe the status of groundwater quality in 2009 and its suitability for drinking, USGS personnel collected samples of water prior to treatment from 16 wells (mostly domestic) during June 9&ndash;19. The samples were analyzed for 92 properties and constituents, 41 of which had human-health benchmarks to which analytical results could be compared to evaluate suitability for drinking. Four of these benchmarks were exceeded at the following frequencies: arsenic (2 of 16 wells, 12.5 percent), total coliform bacteria (2 of 16 wells, 12.5 percent), fecal coliform bacteria (1 of 14 wells, 7 percent), and sodium (6 of 16 wells, 38 percent). No domestic wells sampled in 2009 exceeded the health-based benchmark of 300 micrograms per liter (&micro;g/L) for manganese, although 5 of 65 wells (8 percent) sampled since 1978 have. Analyses from domestic wells were augmented with water-quality data from seven public-supply well fields that were obtained from the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency. These public-supply data were typically collected between 2000 and 2010 and represent water samples that were collected prior to treatment or that were treated by a method that does not effectively remove the constituents of interest. Similar to the domestic-well data, these data indicated that some samples from public-supply wells have also exceeded health-based benchmarks for arsenic and sodium, along with occasional exceedances of health-based benchmarks for cadmium and lead. Concentrations of nitrate, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds in ground-water samples from domestic and (or) public-supply wells were either considerably less than the human-health benchmarks for these constituents or were not detected. Water-quality data collected in 2009 were also compared to aesthetically based benchmarks developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, called Secondary Maximum Contaminant Levels (SMCLs). Iron and manganese most frequently exceeded SMCLs (in samples from 10 of 16 domestic wells and in untreated water from 3 of 4 public-supply well fields). To evaluate the frequency of methane detection in water wells in the county, the USGS sampled 16 wells across the county and screened the samples for combustible gas within the headspace (the air above the water in a closed container). Water from three (19 percent) of the wells contained detectable combustible gas (0.10 to 0.40 percent by volume). All three detections were from wells tapping the Cuyahoga Group or the Berea Sandstone, and all detections were less than the lower explosive limit of 5 percent by volume&mdash;the concentration at which methane in air can be flammable if an ignition source is present. Analyses of dissolved gas composition in water from these three wells showed methane concentrations ranging from 0.007 to 1.8 milligrams per liter (mg/L). The primary effect of human activities on groundwater quality found during this study is the input of salinity, or chloride, near land surface. On the basis of ratios of chloride to bromide, the main sources of chloride are road salt and septic leachate rather than oil-field brines (either spilled at land surface or sprayed on roads for dust control). The correlation of chloride concentration to distance of well from road for 31 wells in the county sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1999 suggests that road salt is the dominant source of chloride. The majority of constituents exceeding health-based and aesthetically based benchmarks in groundwater were those that are naturally present in aquifer rocks and sediments rather than constituents introduced by human activities. Concentrations of such natural contaminants are controlled by geochemical processes in the subsurface, particularly by oxidation-reduction (redox) reactions. The categorization of redox conditions based on the water quality of 116 samples collected from 65 wells in Geauga County during 1978 through 2009 indicates that most groundwater samples were strongly reducing (60 percent) or oxic (18 percent). Oxic waters were found only in the Pottsville Formation and Berea Sandstone and were generally associated with nitrate at concentrations of 0.38 to 6.0 mg/L. Strongly reducing waters occurred in all four commonly used aquifers and were associated with the following naturally occurring contaminants: (1) arsenic and manganese at concentrations exceeding the health-based benchmarks (10 &micro;g/L and 300 &micro;g/L, respectively) in some samples, (2) iron and manganese at concentrations exceeding the aesthetically based standards (300 &micro;g/L and 50 &micro;g/L, respectively) in most samples, and (3) total sulfides (consisting of hydrogen sulfide gas with its characteristic rotten-egg odor and [or] iron sulfide minerals that appear as finely disseminated particulates in water). Because of the association of redox conditions with specific contaminants, attempts were made to further document spatially where oxic and strongly reducing conditions occur so that contaminant occurrence can be better anticipated by planners and well owners. Within the Pottsville Formation, wells tapping strongly reducing groundwater tended to have a greater thickness of overlying low-permeability (recharge-inhibiting) material such as clay and shale than other wells tapping oxic or nitrate-reducing groundwater. In the Berea Sandstone, oxic conditions were found at well locations where either depth to groundwater was shallow (less than 45 feet [ft] below land surface) or the measured water level was within the open interval (uncased portion) of the well, whereas strongly reducing groundwater was found at well locations where depths to water were greater than 60 ft below land surface and measured water levels were 15 ft or more above the open interval of the well. To evaluate whether constituent concentrations consistently increased or decreased over time, the strength of the association between sampling year (time) and constituent concentration was statistically evaluated for 116 water-quality samples collected by the USGS in 1978, 1980, 1986, 1999, and 2009 from a total of 65 wells across the county (generally domestic wells or wells serving small businesses or churches). Results indicate that many of the constituents that have been analyzed for decades exhibited no consistent temporal trends at a statistically significant level (p-value less than 0.05); fluctuations in concentrations of these constituents represent natural variation in groundwater quality. Dissolved oxygen, calcium, and sulfate concentrations and chloride:bromide ratios increased over time in one or more aquifers, while pH and concentrations of bromide and dissolved organic carbon decreased over time. Detections of total coliform bacteria and nitrate did not become more frequent from 1986 to 2009, even though potential sources of these constituents, such as number of septic systems (linked to population) and percent developed land in the county, increased during this period.

Geauga County↗

A simulation model of land-use change in the Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada, as used in a decision-support system

The Tahoe Land-Use Change model is a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation of future land-use change—in particular, development and retirement of individual parcels—in the Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada. The Federal, State, and regional management agencies responsible for the basin are revising and integrating their 20-year plans to meet various goals, including maintaining or improving several environmental (e.g., lake clarity, forest health) and socioeconomic (e.g., affordable housing) characteristics. To assist this effort, the model projects the long-term outcomes of land-use-management decisions, including those relating to existing and potential government regulations, development activities, and conservation practices. The model results are probabilistic maps of parcel-specific changes in land use and the resulting changes in the amount and locations of developed parcels and land-use change. To capture the uncertainties and variation in the exact parcels of land selected for development or retirement by individuals acting in the basin, a single model run includes multiple iterations, from which cumulative statistics are taken to describe the results. The purpose of the model is to generate changes in the amounts and types of land use and land cover that form inputs to a basinwide model of pollutant loading to Lake Tahoe, which, in turn, generates inputs to a lake-clarity model. Together, these three models form a chain of tools that link land-use decisions to changes in a critical environmental quality—the clarity of Lake Tahoe—within a decision-support context. Eventually, these three models will become part of a larger, more complete decision-support system.

California, Nevada↗

Linking modern pollen accumulation rates to biomass: Quantitative vegetation reconstruction in the western Klamath Mountains, NW California, USA

Quantitative reconstructions of vegetation abundance from sediment-derived pollen systems provide unique insights into past ecological conditions. Recently, the use of pollen accumulation rates (PAR, grains cm −2 year −1 ) has shown promise as a bioproxy for plant abundance. However, successfully reconstructing region-specific vegetation dynamics using PAR requires that accurate assessments of pollen deposition processes be quantitatively linked to spatially-explicit measures of plant abundance. Our study addressed these methodological challenges. Modern PAR and vegetation data were obtained from seven lakes in the western Klamath Mountains, California. To determine how to best calibrate our PAR-biomass model, we first calculated the spatial area of vegetation where vegetation composition and patterning is recorded by changes in the pollen signal using two metrics. These metrics were an assemblage-level relevant source area of pollen (aRSAP) derived from extended R-value analysis ( sensu Sugita, 1993) and a taxon-specific relevant source area of pollen (tRSAP) derived from PAR regression ( sensu Jackson, 1990). To the best of our knowledge, aRSAP and tRSAP have not been directly compared. We found that the tRSAP estimated a smaller area for some taxa (e.g. a circular area with a 225 m radius for Pinus ) than the aRSAP (a circular area with a 625 m radius). We fit linear models to relate PAR values from modern lake sediments with empirical, distance-weighted estimates of aboveground live biomass (AGL dw ) for both the aRSAP and tRSAP distances. In both cases, we found that the PARs of major tree taxa – Pseudotsuga, Pinus, Notholithocarpus , and TCT (Taxodiaceae, Cupressaceae, and Taxaceae families) – were statistically significant and reasonably precise estimators of contemporary AGL dw . However, predictions weighted by the distance defined by aRSAP tended to be more precise. The relative root-mean squared error for the aRSAP biomass estimates was 9% compared to 12% for tRSAP. Our results demonstrate that calibrated PAR-biomass relationships provide a robust method to infer changes in past plant biomass.

California, Oregon↗