USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Scientific Reports”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,153 records · Page 64Linked to original sources
USGS2014

High-resolution topography and geomorphology of select archeological sites in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Arizona

Along the Colorado River corridor between Glen Canyon Dam and Lees Ferry, Arizona, located some 25 km downstream from the dam, archaeological sites dating from 8,000 years before present through the modern era are located within and on top of fluvial and alluvial terraces of the prehistorically undammed river. These terraces are known to have undergone significant erosion and retreat since emplacement of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963. Land managers and policy makers associated with managing the flow of the Colorado River are interested in understanding how the operations of Glen Canyon Dam have affected the archeological sites associated with these terraces and how dam-controlled flows currently interact with other landscape-shaping processes. In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a research project in Glen Canyon to study the types and causes of erosion of the terraces. This report provides the first step towards this understanding by presenting comparative analyses on several types of high-resolution topographic data (airborne lidar, terrestrial lidar, and airborne photogrammetry) that can be used in the future to document and analyze changes to terrace-based archaeological sites. Herein, we present topographic and geomorphologic data of four archaeological sites within a 14 km segment of Glen Canyon using each of the three data sources. In addition to comparing each method’s suitability for adequately representing the topography of the sites, we also analyze the data within each site’s context and describe the geomorphological processes responsible for erosion. Our results show that each method has its own strengths and weaknesses, and that terrestrial and airborne lidar are essentially interchangeable for many important topographic characterization and monitoring purposes. However, whereas terrestrial lidar provides enhanced capacity for feature recognition and gully morphology delineation, airborne methods (whether by way of laser or optical sensors) are better suited for reach- and regional-scale mapping. Our site-specific geomorphic analyses of the four archeological sites indicate that their current topographical conditions are a result of different and sometimes competing erosional agents, including bedrock- and terrace-based overland flow, fluvial-induced terrace bank collapse, and alluvial-fan-generated debris flows. Although the influences of anthropogenic-induced erosion from dam operations are not specifically analyzed in this report, we do identify geomorphic settings where dam operations are either more or less likely to affect archeological site stability. This information can be used to assist with future monitoring efforts of these sites and identification of similar conditions for other archeological sites along the Colorado River corridor in Glen Canyon.

Arizona↗
USGS2015

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows at ungaged sites in and near the Oklahoma Panhandle

This report presents the results of a cooperative study by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Oklahoma Department of Transportation to estimate the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows from regional regression equations for ungaged stream sites in and near the Oklahoma Panhandle. These methods relate basin characteristics (physiographic and climatic attributes) to selected peak streamflow frequency statistics with the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities. These relations were developed based on data from 32 selected streamflow-gaging stations in the Oklahoma Panhandle and in neighboring parts of Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, and Texas. The basin characteristics for the selected streamflow-gaging stations were determined by using a geographic information system and the Oklahoma StreamStats application. Peak-streamflow frequency statistics were computed from annual peak-streamflow records from the irrigated period of record from water year 1978 through water year 2014. Generalized-least-squares multiple-linear regression analysis was used to formulate regression relations between peak-streamflow frequency statistics and basin characteristics. Contributing drainage area was the only basin characteristic determined to be statistically significant for all percentage of annual exceedance probabilities and was the only basin characteristic used in regional regression equations for estimating peak-streamflow frequency statistics on unregulated streams in and near the Oklahoma Panhandle. The regression model pseudo-coefficient of determination, converted to percent, for the Oklahoma Panhandle regional regression equations ranged from about 38 to 63 percent. The standard errors of prediction and the standard model errors for the Oklahoma Panhandle regional regression equations ranged from about 84 to 148 percent and from about 76 to 138 percent, respectively. These errors were comparable to those reported for regional peak-streamflow frequency regression equations for the High Plains areas of Texas and Colorado. The root mean square errors for the Oklahoma Panhandle regional regression equations (ranging from 3,170 to 92,000 cubic feet per second) were less than the root mean square errors for the Oklahoma statewide regression equations (ranging from 18,900 to 412,000 cubic feet per second); therefore, the Oklahoma Panhandle regional regression equations produce more accurate peak-streamflow statistic estimates for the irrigated period of record in the Oklahoma Panhandle than do the Oklahoma statewide regression equations. The regression equations developed in this report are applicable to streams that are not substantially affected by regulation, impoundment, or surface-water withdrawals. These regression equations are intended for use for stream sites with contributing drainage areas less than or equal to about 2,060 square miles, the maximum value for the independent variable used in the regression analysis.

Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗
USGS2005

Hydrogeology of the Valley-Fill Aquifer in the Onondaga Trough, Onondaga County, New York

Continuing efforts to improve water quality in Onondaga Lake, New York and its tributaries require an understanding of how the natural, brine-filled aquifer in the Onondaga Trough (valley) affects the freshwater in Onondaga Lake. The city of Syracuse, locally known as "The Salt City," was built around the salt springs, which issued from a valley-fill aquifer that contains a highly concentrated brine (up to six times as salty as sea water), but little is known about the source of the brine, its movement within the glacial sediments that partly fill the Onondaga Trough, and the interaction of the aquifer and the lake. This report summarizes initial data-collection and analysis efforts in the 25-mile long Onondaga Trough that extends from near Tully, N.Y., to the outlet of Onondaga Lake and presents results of some initial chemical and geographic analyses that will lead to the development of a mathematical ground-water-flow model of the valley-fill aquifer.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2008

Flood of May 2006 in York County, Maine

A stalled low-pressure system over coastal New England on Mother's Day weekend, May 13-15, 2006, released rainfall in excess of 15 inches. This flood (sometimes referred to as the 'Mother's Day flood') caused widespread damage to homes, businesses, roads, and structures in southern Maine. The damage to public property in York County was estimated to be $7.5 million. As a result of these damages, a presidential disaster declaration was enacted on May 25, 2006, for York County, Maine. Peak-flow recurrence intervals for eight of the nine streams studied were calculated to be greater than 500 years. The peak-flow recurrence interval of the remaining stream was calculated to be between a 100-year and a 500-year interval. This report provides a detailed description of the May 2006 flood in York County, Maine. Information is presented on peak streamflows and peak-flow recurrence intervals on nine streams, peak water-surface elevations for 80 high-water marks at 25 sites, hydrologic conditions before and after the flood, comparisons with published Flood Insurance Studies, and places the May 2006 flood in context with historical floods in York County. At sites on several streams, differences were observed between peak flows published in the Flood Insurance Studies and those calculated for this study. The differences in the peak flows from the published Flood Insurance Studies and the flows calculated for this report are within an acceptable range for flows calculated at ungaged locations, with the exception of those for the Great Works River and Merriland River. For sites on the Mousam River, Blacksmith Brook, Ogunquit River, and Cape Neddick River, water-surface elevations from Flood Insurance Studies differed with documented water-surface elevations from the 2006 flood.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2008

Update of the Accounting Surface Along the Lower Colorado River

The accounting-surface method was developed in the 1990s by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, to identify wells outside the flood plain of the lower Colorado River that yield water that will be replaced by water from the river. This method was needed to identify which wells require an entitlement for diversion of water from the Colorado River and need to be included in accounting for consumptive use of Colorado River water as outlined in the Consolidated Decree of the United States Supreme Court in Arizona v. California. The method is based on the concept of a river aquifer and an accounting surface within the river aquifer. The study area includes the valley adjacent to the lower Colorado River and parts of some adjacent valleys in Arizona, California, Nevada, and Utah and extends from the east end of Lake Mead south to the southerly international boundary with Mexico. Contours for the original accounting surface were hand drawn based on the shape of the aquifer, water-surface elevations in the Colorado River and drainage ditches, and hydrologic judgment. This report documents an update of the original accounting surface based on updated water-surface elevations in the Colorado River and drainage ditches and the use of simple, physically based ground-water flow models to calculate the accounting surface in four areas adjacent to the free-flowing river.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2009

Aquifer chemistry and transport processes in the zone of contribution to a public-supply well in Woodbury, Connecticut, 2002-06

A glacial aquifer system in Woodbury, Connecticut, was studied to identify factors that affect the groundwater quality in the zone of contribution to a community public-supply well. Water samples were collected during 2002-06 from the public-supply well and from 35 monitoring wells in glacial stratified deposits, glacial till, and fractured bedrock. The glacial aquifer is vulnerable to contamination from a variety of sources due to the short groundwater residence times and the urban land use in the contributing recharge area to the public-supply well. The distribution and concentrations of pH, major and trace elements, stable isotope ratios, recharge temperatures, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and the oxidation-reduction (redox) conditions, were used to identify recharge source areas, aquifer source material, anthropogenic sources, chemical processes, and groundwater-flow paths from recharge areas to the public-supply well, PSW-1. The major chemical sources to groundwater and the tracers or conditions used to identify them and their processes throughout the aquifer system include (1) bedrock and glacial stratified deposits and till, characterized by high pH and concentrations of sulfate (SO42-), bicarbonate, uranium (U), radon-222, and arsenic (As) relative to those of other wells, reducing redox conditions, enriched delta sulfur-34 (d34S) and delta carbon-13 (d13C) values, depleted delta oxygen-18 (d18O) and delta deuterium (dD) values, calcite near saturation, low recharge temperatures, and groundwater ages of more than about 9 years; (2) natural organic matter, either in sediments or in an upgradient riparian zone, characterized by high concentrations of DOC or manganese (Mn), low concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO) and nitrate (NO3-), enriched d34S values, and depleted d18O and dD values; (3) road salt (halite), characterized by high concentrations of sodium (Na), chloride (Cl-), and calcium (Ca), and indicative chloride/bromide (Cl:Br) mass concentration ratios; (4) septic-system leachate, characterized by high concentrations of NO3-, DOC, Na, Cl-, Ca, and boron (B), delta nitrogen-15 (d15N) and d18O values, and indicative Cl:Br ratios; (5) organic solvent spills, characterized by detections of perchloroethene (PCE), trichloroethene (TCE), and 1,1-dichloroethene (1,1-DCE); (6) gasoline station spills, characterized by detections of fuel oxygenates and occasionally benzene; and (7) surface-water leakage, characterized by enriched d18O and dD values and sometimes high DOC and Mn-reducing conditions. Evaluation of Cl- concentrations and Cl:Br ratios indicates that most samples were composed of mixtures of groundwater and some component of road salt or septic-system leachate. Leachate from septic-tank drainfields can cause locally anoxic conditions with NO3- concentrations of as much as 19 milligrams per liter (mg/L as N) and may provide up to 15 percent of the nitrogen in water from well PSW-1, based on mixing calculations with d15N of NO3-. Most of the water that contributes to PSW-1 is young (less than 7 years) and derived from the glacial stratified deposits. Typically, groundwater is oxic, but localized reducing zones that result from abundances of organic matter can affect the mobilization of trace elements and the degradation of VOCs. Groundwater from fractured bedrock beneath the valley bottom, which is old (more than 50 years), and reflects a Mn-reducing to methanic redox environment, constitutes as much as 6 percent of water samples collected from monitoring wells screened at the bottom of the glacial aquifer. Dissolved As and U concentrations generally are near the minimum reporting level (MRL) (0.2 micrograms per liter or ?g/L and 0.04 ?g/L, respectively), but water from a few wells screened in glacial deposits, likely derived from underlying organic-rich Mesozoic rocks, contain As concentrations up to 7 ?g/L. At one location, concentrations of As and U were high

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2021

Volcanic Aquifers of Hawai‘i—Construction and calibration of numerical models for assessing groundwater availability on Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui

Steady-state numerical groundwater-flow models were constructed for the islands of Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui to enable quantification of the hydrologic consequences of withdrawals and other stresses that can place limits on groundwater availability. The volcanic aquifers of Hawai‘i supply nearly all drinking water for the islands’ residents, freshwater for diverse industries, and natural discharge to springs, streams, and nearshore areas that support ecosystems, cultural practices, aesthetics, and recreation. Increases in groundwater withdrawal and changes in climate can cause water-table depression, saltwater rise, and reduction of natural groundwater discharge—all of which can limit fresh groundwater availability. The numerical models described in this report are designed to quantify these consequences. Separate models were created for each island using MODFLOW-2005 with the Seawater Intrusion package, which allows simulation of freshwater and saltwater in ocean-island aquifers. Calibration resulted in models that generally replicate observed water-level, stream base-flow, and spring-flow data, and simulate groundwater-flow directions and fresh groundwater thicknesses that are consistent with conceptual models. The calibrated models use hydraulic properties that are consistent with the ranges reported in previous studies. The models show that the relative distribution of fresh groundwater discharge to the ocean, streams, and springs and withdrawals for human use differ substantially among the three islands studied here. These differences indicate that consequences that limit the availability of fresh groundwater for human use are likely to differ among the three islands.

Hawaii↗
USGS2006

Selected Streamflow Statistics and Regression Equations for Predicting Statistics at Stream Locations in Monroe County, Pennsylvania

A suite of 28 streamflow statistics, ranging from extreme low to high flows, was computed for 17 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations and predicted for 20 partial-record stations in Monroe County and contiguous counties in north-eastern Pennsylvania. The predicted statistics for the partial-record stations were based on regression analyses relating inter-mittent flow measurements made at the partial-record stations indexed to concurrent daily mean flows at continuous-record stations during base-flow conditions. The same statistics also were predicted for 134 ungaged stream locations in Monroe County on the basis of regression analyses relating the statistics to GIS-determined basin characteristics for the continuous-record station drainage areas. The prediction methodology for developing the regression equations used to estimate statistics was developed for estimating low-flow frequencies. This study and a companion study found that the methodology also has application potential for predicting intermediate- and high-flow statistics. The statistics included mean monthly flows, mean annual flow, 7-day low flows for three recurrence intervals, nine flow durations, mean annual base flow, and annual mean base flows for two recurrence intervals. Low standard errors of prediction and high coefficients of determination (R2) indicated good results in using the regression equations to predict the statistics. Regression equations for the larger flow statistics tended to have lower standard errors of prediction and higher coefficients of determination (R2) than equations for the smaller flow statistics. The report discusses the methodologies used in determining the statistics and the limitations of the statistics and the equations used to predict the statistics. Caution is indicated in using the predicted statistics for small drainage area situations. Study results constitute input needed by water-resource managers in Monroe County for planning purposes and evaluation of water-resources availability.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2015

Porphyry copper assessment of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt and eastern Tethysides: China, Mongolia, Russia, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and India: Chapter X in Global mineral resource assessment

The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with international colleagues to assess undiscovered resources in porphyry copper deposits in the Central Asian Orogenic Belt and eastern Tethysides. These areas host 20 known porphyry copper deposits, including the world class Oyu Tolgoi deposit in Mongolia that was discovered in the late 1990s. The study area covers major parts of the world’s largest orogenic systems. The Central Asian Orogenic Belt is a collage of amalgamated Precambrian through Mesozoic terranes that extends from the Ural Mountains in the west nearly to the Pacific Coast of Asia in the east and records the evolution and final closure of the Paleo-Asian Ocean in Permian time. The eastern Tethysides, the orogenic belt to the south of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt, records the evolution of another ancient ocean system, the Tethys Ocean. The evolution of these orogenic belts involved magmatism associated with a variety of geologic settings appropriate for formation of porphyry copper deposits, including subduction-related island arcs, continental arcs, and collisional and postconvergent settings. The original settings are difficult to trace because the arcs have been complexly deformed and dismembered by younger tectonic events. Twelve mineral resource assessment tracts were delineated to be permissive for the occurrence of porphyry copper deposits based on mapped and inferred subsurface distributions of igneous rocks of specific age ranges and compositions. These include (1) nine Paleozoic tracts in the Central Asian Orogenic Belt, which range in area from about 60,000 to 800,000 square kilometers (km 2 ); (2) a complex area of about 400,000 km 2 on the northern margin of the Tethysides, the Qinling-Dabie tract, which spans central China and areas to the west, encompassing Paleozoic through Triassic igneous rocks that formed in diverse settings; and (3) assemblages of late Paleozoic and Mesozoic rocks that define two other tracts in the Tethysides, the 100,000 km 2 Jinsajiang tract and the 300,000 km 2 Tethyan-Gangdese tract. Assessment participants evaluated applicable grade and tonnage models and estimated numbers of undiscovered deposits at different confidence levels for each permissive tract. The estimates were then combined with the selected grade and tonnage models using Monte Carlo simulations to generate probabilistic estimates of undiscovered resources. Additional resources in extensions of deposits with identified resources were not specifically evaluated. Assessment results, presented in tables and graphs, show amounts of metal and rock in undiscovered deposits at selected quantile levels of probability (0.95, 0.9, 0.5, 0.1, and 0.05 confidence levels), as well as the arithmetic mean and associated standard deviations and variances for each tract. This assessment estimated a total of 97 undiscovered porphyry copper deposits within the assessed permissive tracts. This represents nearly five times the 20 known deposits. Predicted mean resources that could be associated with these undiscovered deposits are about 370,000,000 metric tons (t) of copper, 10,000 t of gold, 7,700,000 t of molybdenum, and 120,000 t of silver. The assessment area is estimated to contain about five times as much copper in undiscovered deposits as has been identified to date. This report includes a summary of the data used in the assessment, a brief overview of the geologic framework of the area, descriptions of permissive tracts and known deposits, maps, and tables. A geographic information system database that accompanies this report includes the tract boundaries and known porphyry copper deposits, significant prospects, and prospects. Assessments of overlapping younger rocks and adjacent areas are included in separate reports available on-line at http://minerals.usgs.gov/global/ .

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2022

U.S. Geological Survey response to Hurricane Maria flooding in Puerto Rico and characterization of peak streamflows observed September 20–22, 2017

Hurricane Maria struck the island of Puerto Rico on September 20, 2017, as a Category 4 storm. The hurricane traversed the island from southeast to northwest and produced recorded 48-hour rainfall totals of up to 30.01 inches. Estimates of the human death toll range from 2,975 to 4,645, possibly more. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologic monitoring network sustained substantial wind and flood damage during the hurricane. Eighty-five of the 300 hydrologic monitoring stations operating in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands prior to the passage of Hurricane Maria were destroyed or damaged. During the weeks and months after the hurricane, USGS field crews in Puerto Rico prioritized repair of the hydrologic monitoring network and collected hydrologic information to characterize the magnitude of observed peak streamflows at 20 streamgage and to develop new theoretical stage-streamflow relations for 58 streamgages where stream channels were substantially altered; the theoretical stage-streamflow relations were used to estimate Hurricane Maria peak streamflows for 39 of those sites. As part of a pilot program, USGS field crews installed continuous slope-area monitoring equipment at two remote streamgages to automate the collection of high-streamflow stage data. Hurricane Maria peak streamflows and rankings were determined for 73 USGS streamgages in Puerto Rico. New rank 1 period-of-record peak streamflows occurred at 28 sites, rank 2 period-of-record peak streamflows occurred at 17 sites, and rank 3 period-of-record peak streamflows occurred at 9 sites; period-of-record peak streamflows at the remaining 19 sites either ranked from 4th to 20th or were not ranked. Annual exceedance probabilities for 53 unregulated peak streamflows ranged from greater than 50.0 percent (recurrence interval of less than 2 years) to 0.3 percent (recurrence interval of 333 years), with the majority (28 of 53) in the range of 10.0–2.1 percent (recurrence intervals of 10–48 years). A comparison of period-of-record ranks for the largest flood events that have occurred in Puerto Rico since the 1960s indicated that Hurricane Maria produced more record peak streamflows than either Hurricane Hortense in 1996 or Hurricane Georges in 1998. Limited pre-1960s hydrologic data preclude quantitative comparison with earlier storms. As part of this study, a maximum peak-streamflow envelope curve for Puerto Rico was developed using historical peak-streamflow information available through 2017. Other post-Hurricane Maria USGS activities summarized in this report include (1) Global Navigation Satellite System surveys at all stations in the USGS hydrologic monitoring network, used to tie the network to the Puerto Rico Vertical Datum of 2002; and (2) telemetered monitoring of the Lago Guajataca Dam in northwestern Puerto Rico, which was damaged and at risk of failure from October to December 2017.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2022

Effect of uncertainty of discharge data on uncertainty of discharge simulation for the Lake Michigan Diversion, northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana

Simulation models of watershed hydrology (also referred to as “rainfall-runoff models”) are calibrated to the best available streamflow data, which are typically published discharge time series at the outlet of the watershed. Even after calibration, the model generally cannot replicate the published discharges because of simplifications of the physical system embedded in the model structure and uncertainties of the input data and of the estimated model parameters, which, although optimized for the given calibration data, remain uncertain. The input data errors are caused by uncertainties in the forcing data, such as precipitation and other climatological data, and in the published discharges used for calibration. In the numerical algorithms used for calibration, the published discharges are often assumed to be without error, but they are themselves uncertain, typically having been computed using ratings, which are models fitted to uncertain discharge measurements. In this study, uncertainty of published daily discharge data and how the discharge uncertainty is transmitted to the parameter values of the Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) rainfall-runoff model and to the simulated discharge at both calibration and prediction locations were investigated for the Lake Michigan diversion in northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana. The HSPF model used in this study is used by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as part of quantifying the diversion of water from Lake Michigan by the State of Illinois. In this study, the model is calibrated jointly at two watersheds in the study area; the resulting model is considered the base model in this study. Seven other gaged watersheds in the study area are used for testing predictive simulations. A Bayesian rating curve estimation (BaRatin) approach, the BaRatin stage-period-discharge (SPD) method, was used to estimate the uncertainty of the published discharge from the calibration watersheds. To characterize the effect of the discharge uncertainty on parameter values, the HSPF model parameters were recalibrated to 17 nonrandomly selected pairs of discharge series from the BaRatin SPD analysis. To provide an indicator of the effect of parameter uncertainty to compare to the effect of discharge uncertainty, 1,000 parameter sets also were randomly generated from the estimated parameter covariance matrix of the base model. The recalibrated and random parameter sets were then used in HSPF simulations of discharge at the two calibration watersheds and at the seven prediction watersheds. Selected discharge summary statistics—the period-of-study (POS, water years 1997 to 2015) mean discharge, selected flow-duration curve (FDC) quantiles, and water year mean discharges—are used to characterize the variability between simulated and published discharge. A normalized variability index ( V N ) is used as a measure of the uncertainty of flow statistics arising from the uncertainty of the sources considered in this study. When this index is at least 1, the variability of the simulations is large enough to explain the median error between simulated and published values, although offsetting errors from other sources are also likely. When the index is appreciably less than 1, the variability of the simulations is clearly insufficient to explain the median error between simulated and published values. At the two calibration watersheds and for results of the two simulation sets considered together, the V N values ranged from 0.2 to 0.8 for POS mean discharge, from 0.3 to 0.6 in the median for a set of FDC quantiles, and from 0.1 to 0.2 in the median for water year mean discharges. These values indicate that substantial uncertainty remains unexplained. Even though two watersheds were used in calibration, that calibration was highly constrained because it was applied to the watersheds simultaneously and was subject to parameter regularization that constrained the adjustment of the parameters from their initial values. These constraints were applied to avoid overfitting to the calibration watersheds and thus to increase the likelihood that the resulting parameters would give accurate results at watersheds not used in the calibration, but they created a parameter transfer error in the calibration watershed results shown by the balancing of errors between the two watersheds. Additional remaining error sources include model structural error and meteorological forcing error to the degree that the calibration was unable to adjust the parameters to account for these errors. At the prediction watersheds, the corresponding V N values were almost always substantially lower than those values at the calibration watersheds. This result is expected because the prediction watersheds have additional uncertainty, including parameter transfer error. The work described in this report provides preliminary estimates of a limited range of sources of error in predicted discharge uncertainty. Future work would be beneficial to obtain a better statistical characterization of the effect of the uncertainty of calibration discharge series and to address additional sources of uncertainty, such as from precipitation input data used in calibration and prediction and from structural (model) errors.

Illinois, Indiana↗
USGS2026

Assessing natural recharge in Indian Wells Valley, California: A Basin Characterization Model case study

The communities in Indian Wells Valley (IWV), in the northern Mojave Desert in California, rely on groundwater for domestic and agricultural use. Mountain front recharge from the surrounding Sierra Nevada is the main source of natural recharge to the valley. Increased urbanization, agricultural development, and groundwater pumping during recent decades put IWV in a state of critical overdraft. The U.S. Geological Survey Basin Characterization Model, version 8 (BCMv8) was used to evaluate historical and future climate and hydrologic conditions in IWV. The BCMv8 estimated natural recharge in IWV at 10.7 million cubic meters (Mm 3 ) per year for the period from 1981 to 2010. Future patterns of water balance variables using three future climate scenarios, hot-wet, hot-dry, and warm-moderately wet, were calculated for mid-century (2040–69) and end-of-century (2070–99) periods. Results for both wet models projected an increase in recharge in both periods, whereas the hot-dry model projected a decrease in recharge in both periods. All models reported a large increase in seasonal variability in recharge, indicating more future availability and frequent occurrences of drought years. All climate scenarios projected an increase in climatic water deficit in both periods. These increases in irrigation demand and variability of water supply highlight the importance of strategic management planning for the sustainability of water resources in IWV.

California↗
USGS2009

Regional regression equations for estimation of natural streamflow statistics in Colorado

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board and the Colorado Department of Transportation, developed regional regression equations for estimation of various streamflow statistics that are representative of natural streamflow conditions at ungaged sites in Colorado. The equations define the statistical relations between streamflow statistics (response variables) and basin and climatic characteristics (predictor variables). The equations were developed using generalized least-squares and weighted least-squares multilinear regression reliant on logarithmic variable transformation. Streamflow statistics were derived from at least 10 years of streamflow data through about 2007 from selected USGS streamflow-gaging stations in the study area that are representative of natural-flow conditions. Basin and climatic characteristics used for equation development are drainage area, mean watershed elevation, mean watershed slope, percentage of drainage area above 7,500 feet of elevation, mean annual precipitation, and 6-hour, 100-year precipitation. For each of five hydrologic regions in Colorado, peak-streamflow equations that are based on peak-streamflow data from selected stations are presented for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year instantaneous-peak streamflows. For four of the five hydrologic regions, equations based on daily-mean streamflow data from selected stations are presented for 7-day minimum 2-, 10-, and 50-year streamflows and for 7-day maximum 2-, 10-, and 50-year streamflows. Other equations presented for the same four hydrologic regions include those for estimation of annual- and monthly-mean streamflow and streamflow-duration statistics for exceedances of 10, 25, 50, 75, and 90 percent. All equations are reported along with salient diagnostic statistics, ranges of basin and climatic characteristics on which each equation is based, and commentary of potential bias, which is not otherwise removed by log-transformation of the variables of the equations from interpretation of residual plots. The predictor-variable ranges can be used to assess equation applicability for ungaged sites in Colorado.

Colorado↗
USGS2013

Simulation of groundwater flow, effects of artificial recharge, and storage volume changes in the Equus Beds aquifer near the city of Wichita, Kansas well field, 1935–2008

The Equus Beds aquifer is a primary water-supply source for Wichita, Kansas and the surrounding area because of shallow depth to water, large saturated thickness, and generally good water quality. Substantial water-level declines in the Equus Beds aquifer have resulted from pumping groundwater for agricultural and municipal needs, as well as periodic drought conditions. In March 2006, the city of Wichita began construction of the Equus Beds Aquifer Storage and Recovery project to store and later recover groundwater, and to form a hydraulic barrier to the known chloride-brine plume near Burrton, Kansas. In October 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wichita, began a study to determine groundwater flow in the area of the Wichita well field, and chloride transport from the Arkansas River and Burrton oilfield to the Wichita well field. Groundwater flow was simulated for the Equus Beds aquifer using the three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model MODFLOW-2000. The model simulates steady-state and transient conditions. The groundwater-flow model was calibrated by adjusting model input data and model geometry until model results matched field observations within an acceptable level of accuracy. The root mean square (RMS) error for water-level observations for the steady-state calibration simulation is 9.82 feet. The ratio of the RMS error to the total head loss in the model area is 0.049 and the mean error for water-level observations is 3.86 feet. The difference between flow into the model and flow out of the model across all model boundaries is -0.08 percent of total flow for the steady-state calibration. The RMS error for water-level observations for the transient calibration simulation is 2.48 feet, the ratio of the RMS error to the total head loss in the model area is 0.0124, and the mean error for water-level observations is 0.03 feet. The RMS error calculated for observed and simulated base flow gains or losses for the Arkansas River for the transient simulation is 7,916,564 cubic feet per day (91.6 cubic feet per second) and the RMS error divided by (/) the total range in streamflow (7,916,564/37,461,669 cubic feet per day) is 22 percent. The RMS error calculated for observed and simulated streamflow gains or losses for the Little Arkansas River for the transient simulation is 5,610,089 cubic feet per day(64.9 cubic feet per second) and the RMS error divided by the total range in streamflow (5,612,918/41,791,091 cubic feet per day) is 13 percent. The mean error between observed and simulated base flow gains or losses was 29,999 cubic feet per day (0.34 cubic feet per second) for the Arkansas River and -1,369,250 cubic feet per day (-15.8 cubic feet per second) for the Little Arkansas River. Cumulative streamflow gain and loss observations are similar to the cumulative simulated equivalents. Average percent mass balance difference for individual stress periods ranged from -0.46 to 0.51 percent. The cumulative mass balance for the transient calibration was 0.01 percent. Composite scaled sensitivities indicate the simulations are most sensitive to parameters with a large areal distribution. For the steady-state calibration, these parameters include recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and vertical conductance. For the transient simulation, these parameters include evapotranspiration, recharge, and hydraulic conductivity. The ability of the calibrated model to account for the additional groundwater recharged to the Equus Beds aquifer as part of the Aquifer Storage and Recovery project was assessed by using the U.S. Geological Survey subregional water budget program ZONEBUDGET and comparing those results to metered recharge for 2007 and 2008 and previous estimates of artificial recharge. The change in storage between simulations is the volume of water that estimates the recharge credit for the aquifer storage and recovery system. The estimated increase in storage of 1,607 acre-ft in the basin storage area compared to metered recharge of 1,796 acre-ft indicates some loss of metered recharge. Increased storage outside of the basin storage area of 183 acre-ft accounts for all but 6 acre-ft or 0.33 percent of the total. Previously estimated recharge credits for 2007 and 2008 are 1,018 and 600 acre-ft, respectively, and a total estimated recharge credit of 1,618 acre-ft. Storage changes calculated for this study are 4.42 percent less for 2007 and 5.67 percent more for 2008 than previous estimates. Total storage change for 2007 and 2008 is 0.68 percent less than previous estimates. The small difference between the increase in storage from artificial recharge estimated with the groundwater-flow model and metered recharge indicates the groundwater model correctly accounts for the additional water recharged to the Equus Beds aquifer as part of the Aquifer Storage and Recovery project. Small percent differences between inflows and outflows for all stress periods and all index cells in the basin storage area, improved calibration compared to the previous model, and a reasonable match between simulated and measured long-term base flow indicates the groundwater model accurately simulates groundwater flow in the study area. The change in groundwater level through recent years compared to the August 1940 groundwater level map has been documented and used to assess the change of storage volume of the Equus Beds aquifer in and near the Wichita well field for three different areas. Two methods were used to estimate changes in storage from simulation results using simulated change in groundwater levels in layer 1 between stress periods, and using ZONEBUDGET to calculate the change in storage in the same way the effects of artificial recharge were estimated within the basin storage area. The three methods indicate similar trends although the magnitude of storage changes differ. Information about the change in storage in response to hydrologic stresses is important for managing groundwater resources in the study area. The comparison between the three methods indicates similar storage change trends are estimated and each could be used to determine relative increases or decreases in storage. Use of groundwater level changes that do not include storage changes that occur in confined or semi-confined parts of the aquifer will slightly underestimate storage changes; however, use of specific yield and groundwater level changes to estimate storage change in confined or semi-confined parts of the aquifer will overestimate storage changes. Using only changes in shallow groundwater levels would provide more accurate storage change estimates for the measured groundwater levels method. The value used for specific yield is also an important consideration when estimating storage. For the Equus Beds aquifer the reported specific yield ranges between 0.08 and 0.35 and the storage coefficient (for confined conditions) ranges between 0.0004 and 0.16. Considering the importance of the value of specific yield and storage coefficient to estimates of storage change over time, and the wide range and substantial overlap for the reported values for specific yield and storage coefficient in the study area, further information on the distribution of specific yield and storage coefficient within the Equus Beds aquifer in the study area would greatly enhance the accuracy of estimated storage changes using both simulated groundwater level, simulated groundwater budget, or measured groundwater level methods.

Kansas↗
USGS2014

Digital surfaces and thicknesses of selected hydrogeologic units within the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system, northwestern Arkansas

Digital surfaces and thicknesses of nine hydrogeologic units of the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system from land surface to the top of the Gunter Sandstone in northwestern Arkansas were created using geophysical logs, drillers’ logs, geologist-interpreted formation tops, and previously published maps. The 6,040 square mile study area in the Ozark Plateaus Province includes Benton, Washington, Carroll, Madison, Boone, Newton, Marion, and Searcy Counties. The top of each hydrogeologic unit delineated on geophysical logs was based partly on previously published reports and maps and also from drillers’ logs. These logs were then used as a basis to contour digital surfaces showing the top and thickness of the Fayetteville Shale, the Boone Formation, the Chattanooga Shale, the Everton Formation, the Powell Dolomite, the Cotter Dolomite, the Roubidoux Formation, the Gasconade Dolomite, and the Gunter Sandstone.

Arkansas↗
USGS2015

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) surface-water model, version 2

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) is an integrated network of water-level gages, interpolation models that generate daily water-level and water-depth data, and applications that compute derived hydrologic data across the freshwater part of the greater Everglades landscape. The U.S. Geological Survey Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science provides support for EDEN in order for EDEN to provide quality-assured monitoring data for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The EDEN surface-water model, version 2 (V2), interpolates water-level data from a network of 240 gages to generate gridded daily water-level surfaces for the freshwater domain of the Everglades. When these spatiotemporal continuous surfaces are combined with EDEN’s digital elevation model of ground surface, derived hydrologic data provide scientists and water managers working in the Everglades with data necessary to analyze ecological and biotic responses to hydrologic changes in the Everglades. Derived datasets include water depth, recession rates, days since last dry, water-surface slopes, and hydroperiod. The V2 model includes enhancements from the previous model (version 1; V1) to accommodate changes in the water-level gage network, adjustments to water-level data, improved understanding of the flow dynamics (particularly near canals), and installation of an elevation benchmark network. Enhancements to the V2 model included Expansion of the EDEN domain: The model domain was expanded to include a part of southern Big Cypress National Preserve and northwestern Everglades National Park upstream of the marsh mangrove wetlands, thus completing the coastal connection along the southwestern boundary of the model; and Development of subdomain models: To account for insufficient water-control structure gage data at some subbasin boundaries, subdomain models were developed for five subdomains, and the resulting water-level surfaces were merged to generate the final water-level surface. Model performance statistics show a general improvement in the V2 model as compared to the V1 model. Overall, the root mean squared error (RMSE) was reduced by 2.42 centimeters (cm) to 4.68 cm. In Water Conservation Area 3A North and Water Conservation Area 3B, the RMSE was reduced by 10.88 and 9.15 cm, respectively. In addition to evaluating model performance statistics, 2-cm water-level maps were generated and evaluated for irregular contours that would indicate a potential problem either with data input or water-level estimates. Three applications of the EDEN-modeled water surfaces and other EDEN datasets are presented in the report to show how scientists and resource managers are using EDEN datasets to analyze biological and ecological responses to hydrologic changes in the Everglades. The biological responses of two important Everglades species, alligators and wading birds, to changes in hydrology are described. The effects of hydrology on fire dynamics in the Everglades are also discussed.

Florida↗
USGS2017

Evaluation of radon occurrence in groundwater from 16 geologic units in Pennsylvania, 1986–2015, with application to potential radon exposure from groundwater and indoor air

Results from 1,041 groundwater samples collected during 1986‒2015 from 16 geologic units in Pennsylvania, associated with 25 or more groundwater samples with concentrations of radon-222, were evaluated in an effort to identify variations in radon-222 activities or concentrations and to classify potential radon-222 exposure from groundwater and indoor air. Radon-222 is hereafter referred to as “radon.” Radon concentrations in groundwater greater than or equal to the proposed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) maximum contaminant level (MCL) for public-water supply systems of 300 picocuries per liter (pCi/L) were present in about 87 percent of the water samples, whereas concentrations greater than or equal to the proposed alternative MCL (AMCL) for public water-supply systems of 4,000 pCi/L were present in 14 percent. The highest radon concentrations were measured in groundwater from the schists, gneisses, and quartzites of the Piedmont Physiographic Province. In this study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Health and the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, groundwater samples were aggregated among 16 geologic units in Pennsylvania to identify units with high median radon concentrations in groundwater. Graphical plots and statistical tests were used to determine variations in radon concentrations in groundwater and indoor air. Median radon concentrations in groundwater samples and median radon concentrations in indoor air samples within the 16 geologic units were classified according to proposed and recommended regulatory limits to explore potential radon exposure from groundwater and indoor air. All of the geologic units, except for the Allegheny (Pa) and Glenshaw (Pcg) Formations in the Appalachian Plateaus Physiographic Province, had median radon concentrations greater than the proposed EPA MCL of 300 pCi/L, and the Peters Creek Schist (Xpc), which is in the Piedmont Physiographic Province, had a median radon concentration greater than the EPA proposed AMCL of 4,000 pCi/L. Median concentrations of radon in groundwater and indoor air were determined to differ significantly among the geologic units (Kruskal-Wallis test, significance probability, p<0.001), and Tukey’s test indicated that radon concentrations in groundwater and indoor air in the Peters Creek Schist (Xpc) were significantly higher than those in the other units. Also, the Peters Creek Schist (Xpc) was determined to be the area with highest potential of radon exposure from groundwater and indoor air and one of two units with the highest percentage of population assumed to be using domestic self-supplied water (81 percent), which puts the population at greater potential of exposure to radon from groundwater. Potential radon exposure determined from classification of geologic units by median radon concentrations in groundwater and indoor air according to proposed and recommended regulatory limits is useful for drawing general conclusions about the presence, variation, and potential radon exposure in specific geologic units, but the associated data and maps have limitations. The aggregated indoor air radon data have spatial accuracy limitations owing to imprecision of geocoded test locations. In addition, the associated data describing geologic units and the public water supplier’s service areas have spatial and interpretation accuracy limitations. As a result, data and maps associated with this report are not recommended for use in predicting individual concentrations at specific sites nor for use as a decision-making tool for property owners to decide whether to test for radon concentrations at specific locations. Instead, the data and maps are meant to promote awareness regarding potential radon exposure in Pennsylvania and to point out data gaps that exist throughout the State.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2024

Three-dimensional geologic framework model of the Rio San Jose groundwater basin and adjacent areas, New Mexico

As part of a U.S. Geological Survey study in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation and the Pueblo of Acoma, New Mexico, and the Pueblo of Laguna, New Mexico, a digital three-dimensional geologic framework model was constructed for the Rio San Jose and its surface-water drainage basin in west-central New Mexico. This three-dimensional model defines the altitude, thickness, and extent of 18 geologic units for use in a regional numerical hydrologic model. The model included an undifferentiated Proterozoic basement layer, 13 consolidated Paleozoic and Mesozoic rock units, and 4 Cenozoic units. Model input data were compiled from published cross sections, well data, structure contour maps, selected geophysical data, and data derived from geologic maps and structural features in the study area. These data were used to construct faulted surfaces that represent the upper and lower subsurface geologic unit boundaries. The digital three-dimensional geologic framework model combines faults, the altitude of the tops of each geologic unit, and boundary lines depicting the subsurface extent of each geologic unit. The digital three-dimensional geologic model described in this report and the corresponding data release represents the generalized geometry of the subsurface geologic units; it reproduces with reasonable accuracy the input geologic data and is consistent with previously published subsurface conceptualizations of the region. The geologic framework model is at a scale and resolution appropriate for use as the foundation for a numerical hydrologic model of the study area.

New Mexico↗