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At least 1,153 records · Page 64Linked to original sources

USGS2007

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States results from the complex interplay of climate, geology, and vegetation across widely ranging spatial and temporal scales. Present-day recharge tends to be narrowly focused in time and space. Widespread water-table declines accompanied agricultural development during the twentieth century, demonstrating that sustainable ground-water supplies are not guaranteed when part of the extracted resource represents paleorecharge. Climatic controls on ground-water recharge range from seasonal cycles of summer monsoonal and winter frontal storms to multimillennial cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. Precipitation patterns reflect global-scale interactions among the oceans, atmosphere, and continents. Large-scale climatic influences associated with El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillations strongly, but irregularly, control weather in the study area, so that year-to-year variations in precipitation and ground-water recharge are large and difficult to predict. Proxy data indicate geologically recent periods of naturally occurring multidecadal droughts unlike any in the modern instrumental record. Any anthropogenically induced climate change will likely reduce ground-water recharge through diminished snowpack at higher elevations. Future changes in El Niño and monsoonal patterns, both crucial to precipitation in the study area, are highly uncertain in current models. Current land-use modifications influence ground-water recharge through vegetation, irrigation, and impermeable area. High mountain ranges bounding the study area—the San Bernadino Mountains and Sierra Nevada to the west, and the Wasatch and southern Colorado Rocky Mountains to the east—provide external geologic controls on ground-water recharge. Internal geologic controls stem from tectonic processes that led to numerous, variably connected alluvial-filled basins, exposure of extensive Paleozoic aquifers in mountainous recharge areas, and distinct modes of recharge in the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range subregions. The chapters in this professional paper present (first) an overview of climatic and hydrogeologic framework (chapter A), followed by a regional analysis of ground-water recharge across the entire study area (chapter B). These are followed by an overview of site-specific case studies representing different subareas of the geographically diverse arid and semiarid southwestern United States (chapter C); the case studies themselves follow in chapters D–K. The regional analysis includes detailed hydrologic modeling within the framework of a high-resolution geographic-information system (GIS). Results from the regional analysis are used to explore both the distribution of ground-water recharge for mean climatic conditions as well as the influence of two climatic patterns—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation—that impart a high degree of variability to the hydrologic cycle. Individual case studies employ a variety of geophysical and geochemical techniques to investigate recharge processes and relate the processes to local geologic and climatic conditions. All of the case studies made use of naturally occurring tracers to quantify recharge. Thermal and geophysical techniques that were developed in the course of the studies are presented in appendices. The quantification of ground-water recharge in arid settings is inherently difficult due to the generally low amount of recharge, its spatially and temporally spotty nature, and the absence of techniques for directly measuring fluxes entering the saturated zone from the unsaturated zone. Deep water tables in arid alluvial basins correspond to thick unsaturated zones that produce up to millennial time lags between changes in hydrologic conditions at the land surface and subsequent changes in recharge to underlying ground water. Recent advances in physical, chemical, isotopic, and modeling techniques have fostered new types of recharge assessments. Chemical and isotopic techniques include an increasing variety of environmental tracers that are useful and robust. Physically based techniques include the use of heat as a tracer and computationally intensive geophysical imaging tools for characterizing hydrologic conditions in the unsaturated zone. Modeling-based techniques include spatially distributed water-budget computations using high-resolution remotely sensed and ground-based geographic data. Application of these techniques to arid and semiarid settings in the southwestern United States reveals distinct patterns of recharge corresponding to geologic setting, climatic and vegetative history, and land use. Analysis of recharge patterns shows that large expanses of alluvial basin floors are drying out under current climatic conditions, with little to no recharge to underlying ground water. Ground-water recharge occurs mainly beneath upland catchments in which thin soils overlie permeable bedrock, ephemeral channels in which flow may average only several hours per year, and active agricultural areas. The chapters in this professional paper represent a coordinated attempt to develop a better understanding of one of the Nation's most critical yet difficult-to-quantify renewable resources.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2011

Land use and climate influences on waterbirds in the Prairie Potholes

Aim We examined the influences of regional climate and land‐use variables on mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ), blue‐winged teal ( Anas discors ), ruddy duck ( Oxyura jamaicensis ) and pied‐billed grebe ( Podilymbus podiceps ) abundances to inform conservation planning in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. Location The US portion of Bird Conservation Region 11 (US‐BCR11, the Prairie Potholes), which encompasses six states within the United States: Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Iowa. Methods We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (NABBS), the National Land Cover Data Set, and the National Climatic Data Center to model the effects of environmental variables on waterbird abundance. We evaluated land‐use covariates at three logarithmically related spatial scales (1000, 10,000 and 100,000 ha), and constructed hierarchical spatial count models a priori using information from published habitat associations. Model fitting was performed using a hierarchical modelling approach within a Bayesian framework. Results Models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset, indicating that the influence of spatial scale was small. Both land‐use and climate variables contributed strongly to predicting waterbird abundance in US‐BCR11. The strongest positive influences on waterbird abundance were the percentage of wetland area across all three spatial scales, herbaceous vegetation and precipitation variables. Other variables that we included in our models did not appear to influence waterbirds in this study. Main conclusions Understanding the relationships of waterbird abundance to climate and land use may allow us to make predictions of future distribution and abundance as environmental factors change. Additionally, results from this study can suggest locations where conservation and management efforts should be focused.

Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, ↗

USGS2016

Proceedings of the 12th Biennial Conference of research on the Colorado Plateau

Introduction The Colorado Plateau is a physiographic region that encompasses 330,000 square kilometers in parts of four states in the southwestern United States (Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona). Known for its high deserts, the Colorado Plateau also includes isolated mountains, high plateaus, and rugged canyons. Not only is the region topographically diverse, but geologically, biologically, and culturally diverse as well. The landscape is managed by Federal entities including the Bureau of Land Management, the National Park Service, and the U.S. Forest Service; Tribal nations including the Navajo Nation, Kaibab Paiute, Mountain Ute, Southern Ute, Hopi, Zuni, Hualapai, Havasupai, and White Mountain Apache Tribes; State land and wildlife management agencies; and privately owned holdings, creating complex interactions and management challenges. Population growth, increased tourism to Federal and State lands, and energy development have increased water demands and altered land-use patterns, and these changes have emerged as management challenges facing the people working and living in the region. Climate change, particularly the ongoing drought, has exacerbated the effects of population growth, land-use change, and other stressors such as invasive species. As managers seek solutions to the challenges facing the region’s natural and cultural resources, the Biennial Conference of Science and Management of the Colorado Plateau has become an important venue for exchanging information about emerging management concerns and recent scientific research. Each biennial conference has sought to promote discussion, information sharing, and productive communication among the managers, scientists, students, administrators, tribal representatives, and others who attend the conference with the goal of enhancing the use of the best available science to manage the region’s incomparable natural and cultural resources. The publication and dissemination of a conference proceedings series expands the reach of the conference beyond those people in attendance and creates a record on the research presented. The idea of producing a conference proceedings, and its subsequent publication, first occurred in 1993 following the first biennial conference in 1991. A published volume of contributed papers has followed each subsequent biennial conference, including this volume. The venue for publishing proceedings has changed over the years and has included the National Park Service, the Government Printing Office, the U.S. Geological Survey, and University of Arizona Press. Recently, van Riper and others (2015) published a compilation of the abstracts from the 11 previous conference proceedings. Collectively, the proceedings highlight approximately 25 years of natural- and cultural-resources research, promoting the integration of research with resource management across the Colorado Plateau. This volume is freely downloadable by the public, thereby further expanding the influence of this conference beyond the Colorado Plateau. The 12th Biennial Conference held in Flagstaff, Arizona, from September 16 to 19, 2013, covered a range of topics in the physical, biological, and socio-cultural sciences. The conference was organized and hosted by Northern Arizona University’s ( NAU) Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, the Colorado Plateau Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, and the U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center. Financial and in-kind support was provided by a wide range of organizations including the U.S. Forest Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, Grand Canyon Trust, Colorado Plateau Research Station, and various NAU entities. NAU sponsors include the Landscape Conservation Initiative, School of Forestry, School of Earth Science and Environmental Sustainability, Office of the Provost, and Office of the Vice President of Research. Contributors to these proceedings include researchers and managers from Federal, State, and Tribal governments, universities, private entities, and non-profit organizations. In this regard, this conference has wide-ranging support and participation among private and public entities involved in the science and management of natural resources on the Colorado Plateau.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2015

Downscaling global land-use/land-cover projections for use in region-level state-and-transition simulation modeling

Global land-use/land-cover (LULC) change projections and historical datasets are typically available at coarse grid resolutions and are often incompatible with modeling applications at local to regional scales. The difficulty of downscaling and reapportioning global gridded LULC change projections to regional boundaries is a barrier to the use of these datasets in a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) framework. Here we compare three downscaling techniques to transform gridded LULC transitions into spatial scales and thematic LULC classes appropriate for use in a regional STSM. For each downscaling approach, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) LULC projections, at the 0.5 × 0.5 cell resolution, were downscaled to seven Level III ecoregions in the Pacific Northwest, United States. RCP transition values at each cell were downscaled based on the proportional distribution between ecoregions of (1) cell area, (2) land-cover composition derived from remotely-sensed imagery, and (3) historic LULC transition values from a LULC history database. Resulting downscaled LULC transition values were aggregated according to their bounding ecoregion and “cross-walked” to relevant LULC classes. Ecoregion-level LULC transition values were applied in a STSM projecting LULC change between 2005 and 2100. While each downscaling methods had advantages and disadvantages, downscaling using the historical land-use history dataset consistently apportioned RCP LULC transitions in agreement with historical observations. Regardless of the downscaling method, some LULC projections remain improbable and require further investigation.

AIMS Environmental Science↗

USGS2020

A 450-year record of environmental change from Castle Lake, California (USA), inferred from diatoms and organic geochemistry

A 39-cm sediment core from Castle Lake, California (USA) spans the last ~ 450 years and was analyzed for diatoms and organic geochemistry (δ 15 N, δ 13 C, and C:N), with the goal of determining sensitivity to natural climate variation and twentieth century anthropogenic effects. Castle Lake is a subalpine, nitrogen-limited lake with ~ 5 months of annual ice cover. Human impacts include light recreational use, past fish stocking, and experimental use by the Castle Lake Research Station. The base of the core (below 32 cm; pre mid-1700s) represents the period of maximum ice cover. In contrast, the end of the Little Ice Age (mid 1700s–early 1800s) is dominated by cyclotelloids (mostly Discostella stelligera ), indicating significant open-water periods, a condition that persisted into the early 1900s. Cyclotelloids began to decline in the 1960s and were replaced by the Fragilaria tenera grp. (peak in 1970s), succeeded by Asterionella formosa (peak ~ 2010), and accompanied by a reduction in δ 15 N values and a decrease in C:N that may represent increased atmospheric nitrogen deposition. Another anthropogenic signal was discerned in the core and was interpreted to be the result of an ammonium nitrate fertilization experiment of the epilimnion that was conducted in 1980 and 1981. This signal was manifested in the core largely by a negative excursion in δ 15 N, possibly caused by fractionation during denitrification in surface sediment. A phytoplankton monitoring dataset collected by the Castle Lake Research Station from 1967 to 1984 corroborates the timing of increased araphid euplanktonic species in the 1970s, and increases in two benthic diatoms ( Staurosirella pinnata and Tabellaria fenestrata) , entrained in the phytoplankton tows during the experimentation years. Both ice cover and nitrogen addition appear to be strong drivers that affected the lake diatoms, although additional drivers, such as fish stocking and associated cascade effects need further exploration. These data will be helpful for interpreting longer core records from Castle Lake, should the opportunity arise, as well as cores from similar systems in the region.

California↗

USGS2011

Stratigraphy of the Younger Dryas Chronozone and paleoenvironmental implications: Central and Southern Great Plains

The Great Plains of the United States was the setting for some of the earliest research in North America into patterns and changes in the character of late Pleistocene environments and their effects on contemporary human populations. Many localities in the region have well-stratified records of terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene human (Paleoindian) activity and past environments. These have proven important in debates over the character of the Younger Dryas Chronozone (YDC; 11,000–10,000 14 C BP; 12,900–11,700 cal BP) in the continental interior. This paper reviews the lithostratigraphic record of the YDC on the Central and Southern Great Plains and summarizes paleobiological records (largely isotopic). The goal is to determine if there is any uniformity in the timing, character, direction and/or magnitude of changes in depositional environments or broader geomorphic systems before, during or after the YDC in order to address the question of the character of environments through this time. The stratigraphic records of the late Pleistocene to early Holocene transition, and in particular, the stratigraphic records of the YDC vary through time and space. The data clearly show that a host of geomorphic processes produced the terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene stratigraphic records of the Great Plains. Moreover, the YDC is not necessarily manifest as a distinct lithostratigraphic or biostratigraphic entity in these different types of deposits and soils. The various geomorphic systems of the Great Plains did not behave synchronously in response to any common climate driver. These stratigraphic records reflect local environmental conditions and probably a complex response to the reorganization of mid-latitude climates in the terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene.

Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Okl↗

USGS2019

Late-Glacial paleoecology of the Middle Susitna Valley, Alaska: Environmental context for human dispersal

We present here the results of multi-proxy analyses (sediment geochemistry, diatoms, and pollen) from sediment cores collected at four lakes in the middle Susitna Valley, Alaska. These lakes form a transect from the tundra to the boreal forest. The retrieved cores span from ~12,000 cal yr BP to the present, with age control provided by radiometric dates and tephra deposits, some of which are newly identified. Results indicate that deglaciation occurred before 12,000 cal yr BP and that by that time, the lakes were deep, productive, and surrounded by shrub tundra. The lake with the highest sampling resolution indicates a brief climatic reversal ~11,500 cal yr BP with decreased diatom-inferred lake level and lowered lake productivity, and reduced shrub presence. During the early to middle Holocene, all of the sedimentary records provide evidence of climatic amelioration with tree expansion and productive lakes. A middle to late Holocene climatic deterioration with reduced trees and a shallower, less productive lake is also indicated. In addition, the prominent Watana tephra at ~4,000 cal yr BP likely reduced lake productivity and affected the vegetation. Even though the region was relatively productive soon after deglaciation, people did not occupy the region until ~11,000 cal yr BP, about 1000 years later, and then only sparsely. By the middle and late Holocene, the region was more densely populated and this shift in human occupancy presumably reflects changes in resource abundance, especially caribou. Whether the Watana ashfall influenced caribou abundance and thus people, is still under investigation, but given the tephra’s effect on vegetation and lake productivity, it seems likely.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Rethinking groundwater flow on the South Rim of the Grand Canyon, USA: Characterizing recharge sources and flow paths with environmental tracers

In the arid landscape south of the Grand Canyon, natural springs and seeps are a critical resource for endemic species and Native American tribes. Groundwater is potentially threatened by expanding populations, visitations, and mineral extraction activities. Environmental tracers including noble gases, stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water, tritium, and carbon-14 were used to characterize recharge sources and flow paths in South Rim aquifers. Results confirm the regional Redwall-Muav Aquifer as the primary groundwater source to springs. However, a second local recharge source is required to explain the detection of tritium. Two probable sources are identified as: low-elevation infiltration of surface run-off with warm noble gas recharge temperatures, high excess air, and relatively low fractions of winter recharge, and high-elevation plateau recharge with cool recharge temperatures, low excess air, and fraction of winter recharge of ~ 1. Previous investigators have linked spring occurrence with regional faults and fractures. We show such features are also the likely control chemical mixing between the regional and local groundwater sources, the transport of deeply sourced and local recharge fluids, groundwater age, and thus the relative vulnerability of groundwater to depletion and contamination. The new conceptual model of groundwater sources and flow paths suggest many South Rim springs may respond on the order of 10s to 100s of years to groundwater depletion and contamination, even though the majority of groundwater flow is along longer flow paths with longer lag times. The magnitude of response to short term changes in the flow system remains unclear.

Arizona↗

USGS2022

Sensitivity of headwater streamflow to thawing permafrost and vegetation change in a warming Arctic

Climate change has the potential to impact headwater streams in the Arctic by thawing permafrost and subsequently altering hydrologic regimes and vegetation distribution, physiognomy and productivity. Permafrost thaw and increased subsurface flow have been inferred from the chemistry of large rivers, but there is limited empirical evidence of the impacts to headwater streams. Here we demonstrate how changing vegetation cover and soil thaw may alter headwater catchment hydrology using water budgets, stream discharge trends, and chemistry across a gradient of ground temperature in northwestern Alaska. Colder, tundra-dominated catchments shed precipitation through stream discharge, whereas in warmer catchments with greater forest extent, evapotranspiration and infiltration are substantial fluxes. Forest soils thaw earlier, remain thawed longer, and display seasonal water content declines, consistent with greater evapotranspiration and infiltration. Streambed infiltration and water chemistry indicate that even minor warming can lead to increased infiltration and subsurface flow. Additional warming, permafrost loss, and vegetation shifts in the Arctic will deliver water back to the atmosphere and to subsurface aquifers in many regions, with the potential to substantially reduce discharge in headwater streams, if not compensated by increasing precipitation. Decreasing discharge in headwater streamflow will have important implications for aquatic and riparian ecosystems.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Invasive Brook Stickleback Culaea inconstans minimally alters the trophic ecology of four native fishes in Wyoming, USA

Invasive species introductions are a primary threat facing populations of native freshwater fishes. There are multiple mechanisms by which an invader can affect native species, with competition for food resources being one mechanism that can lead to declines in the distribution and abundance of native species. Invaders that are trophic generalists may cause shifts in the trophic ecology of native species and may be better suited for long-term persistence amid environmental stochasticity. Therefore, trophic studies can provide valuable information on the risk an invader poses to native species. Brook Stickleback Culaea inconstans is an invasive fish species in Wyoming whose effect on native fish assemblages is poorly understood. Our goal was to understand the potential for competitive interactions between Brook Stickleback and native fishes. We used stable isotopes of carbon (ẟ 13 C) and nitrogen (ẟ 15 N) to evaluate the feeding ecology of Brook Stickleback relative to four native fishes, and to explore whether native fish isotopic niches changed in sympatry with Brook Stickleback. We hypothesized that the isotopic niche of Brook Stickleback would be larger than that of native fishes, suggesting broader resource use. Additionally, we hypothesized that the isotopic niche of native fish populations sympatric with Brook Stickleback would contract. We did not find support for our hypotheses as the isotopic niche of Brook Stickleback was not substantially different from that of native fishes. Further, the isotopic niche of native fishes was not substantially affected by Brook Stickleback presence. As a result, we do not currently see evidence of Brook Stickleback altering the trophic ecology of native fish species. Our results provide insight to the effects of a small-bodied invasive fish species on native fishes in a previously unstudied region, and can help managers prioritize management actions to conserve native fishes.

Wyoming↗

USGS1998

Limitations to mapping habitat use areas in changing landscapes using the Mahalanobis distance statistic

We tested the potential of a GIS mapping technique, using a resource selection model developed for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus) and based on the Mahalanobis distance statistic, to track changes in shrubsteppe habitats in southwestern Idaho. If successful, the technique could be used to predict animal use areas, or those undergoing change, in different regions from the same selection function and variables without additional sampling. We determined the multivariate mean vector of 7 GIS variables that described habitats used by jackrabbits. We then ranked the similarity of all cells in the GIS coverage from their Mahalanobis distance to the mean habitat vector. The resulting map accurately depicted areas where we sighted jackrabbits on verification surveys. We then simulated an increase in shrublands (which are important habitats). Contrary to expectation, the new configurations were classified as lower similarity relative to the original mean habitat vector. Because the selection function is based on a unimodal mean, any deviation, even if biologically positive, creates larger Malanobis distances and lower similarity values. We recommend the Mahalanobis distance technique for mapping animal use areas when animals are distributed optimally, the landscape is well-sampled to determine the mean habitat vector, and distributions of the habitat variables does not change.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗

USGS1968

Sedimentary features of the Blackhawk formation (Cretaceous) at Sunnyside, Carbon County, Utah

The Blackhawk Formation at Sunnyside, Utah, was deposited along the western margin of the Western Interior Cretaceous sea during southeastward withdrawal of the sea. Sand was the dominant type of land-derived sediment deposited in the Sunnyside district during the regressive phases. Sand bodies prograded seaward in response to changing sediment supply from a source west of Sunnyside. Where conditions were favorable for the accumulation of vegetable material, peat deposits formed and were later changed to bituminous Coal by diagenesis. Studies of the coal bed show that the coals were formed from accumulation of small, low-growing plants and plant debris that was transported into the area of accumulation. Remains of large plants in the coals are rare. Trace fossils, which are tracks, trails and burrows formed by organisms and preserved in the rock, are extremely abundant in the Blackhawk rocks. These biogenic sedimentary structures are common in Cretaceous deposits throughout the western United States. Trace fossil distribution in the rocks is controlled by the depositional environment preferred by their creators. A study of the trace fossils of a. locality allows a more precise determination of the conditions during deposition of the sediments. Water depth, bottom conditions, salinity, current velocity and amount of suspended nutrients in the water are some of the environmental factors that may be reconstructed by studying trace fossils. The Blackhawk Formation at Sunnyside comprises the members, the Kenilworth Member and the Sunnyside Member. Field studies show that the formation may be further subdivided in the Sunnyside district., according to the precepts of units of mappable thickness and similar lithologic characteristics. The Blackhawk pinches out eastward and north. ward into the Mancos Shale, and names for submembers become meaningless. Names are of value in the region of interest, however, because of the prominence of the named units. Coal mining is the main industry of the Book Cliffs region. Mines of the Sunnyside district are plagued by coal mine bumps, which are sudden, catastrophic releases of stress in the coal. Bumps cause loss of life, property age, and loss of profit to mining companies. Bumps occur when shear stress built up in the coal exceeds the shear Strength of the coal. Differential overburden pressure, faulting and tectonic activity, and lithology and structure of roof rocks are factors which influence bumps. Petroleum and natural gas (methane), which occur locally in pockets in the roof rocks above coal beds, may be diagenetic products of organic-rich sediments.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1985

Ground-water resources and potential hydrologic effects of surface coal mining in the northern Powder River basin, southeastern Montana

The shallow ground-water system in the northern Powder River Basin consists of Upper Cretaceous to Holocene aquifers overlying the Bearpaw Shale--namely, the Fox Hills Sandstone; Hell Creek, Fort Union, and Wasatch Formations; terrace deposits; and alluvium. Ground-water flow above the Bearpaw Shale can be divided into two general flow patterns. An upper flow pattern occurs in aquifers at depths of less than about 200 feet and occurs primarily as localized flow controlled by the surface topography. A lower flow pattern occurs in aquifers at depths from about 200 to 1,200 feet and exhibits a more regional flow, which is generally northward toward the Yellowstone River with significant flow toward the Powder and Tongue Rivers. The chemical quality of water in the shallow ground-water system in the study area varies widely, and most of the ground water does not meet standards for dissolved constituents in public drinking water established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Water from depths less than 200 feet generally is a sodium sulfate type having an average dissolved-solids concentration of 2,100 milligrams per liter. Sodium bicarbonate water having an average dissolved-solids concentration of 1,400 milligrams per liter is typical from aquifers in the shallow ground-water system at depths between 200 and 1,200 feet. Effects of surface coal mining on the water resources in the northern Powder River Basin are dependent on the stratigraphic location of the mine cut. Where the cut lies above the water-yielding zone, the effects will be minimal. Where the mine cut intersects a water-ielding zone, effects on water levels and flow patterns can be significant locally, but water levels and flow patterns will return to approximate premining conditions after mining ceases. Ground water in and near active and former mines may become more mineralized, owing to the placement of spoil material from the reducing zone in the unsaturated zone where the minerals are subject to oxidation. Regional effects probably will be small because of the limited areal extent of ground-water flow systems where mining is feasible. Results of digital models are presented to illustrate the effects of varying hydraulic properties on water-level changes resulting from mine dewatering. The model simulations were designed to depict maximum-drawdown situations. One simulation indicates that after 20 years of continuous dewatering of an infinite, homogeneous, isotropic aquifer that is 10 feet thick and has an initial potentiometric surface 10 feet above the top of the aquifer, water-level declines greater than 1 foot would generally be limited to within 7.5 miles of the center of the mine excavation; declines greater than 2 feet to within about 6 miles; declines greater than 5 feet to within about 3.7 miles; declines greater than 10 feet to within about 1.7 miles; and declines greater than 15 feet to within 1.2 miles.

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS2026

Investigating hydrologic alteration under historical and future scenarios in the Mobile River and Perdido River basins using the cubist algorithm

This study investigates the impacts of human activities and climate variability on hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins of Alabama. The research uses a machine learning approach, specifically cubist models, to quantify and predict changes in flow duration curves (FDCs) under both historical (1980–2009) and future climate scenarios. Future climate projections include the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5), evaluated for two future periods: 1980–2069 and 1980–2099. The models incorporate a wide range of covariates, including basin geomorphology, aquifer characteristics, land cover, water storage, environmental factors, solar radiation, census data, and water use data. Under the baseline period (1980–2009), most level 12 hydrologic unit codes (HUC12s) in both basins showed alterations, with substantial differences observed between pre- and post-alteration FDCs. The model performance varied, with a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency between 0.91 and 0.95 for testing and between 0.98 and 0.99 for training during the baseline period. Future projections under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios generally differed significantly from baseline conditions across all flow regimes ( p < 0.05). In contrast, SSP2 4.5 showed comparatively limited statistical significance, while SSP5 8.5 exhibited significant departures from baseline conditions across all flow regimes, reflecting the greater influence of high-emissions climate forcing on projected hydrologic alterations. Overall, the RCP scenarios projected more widespread statistically significant changes than the corresponding SSP scenarios at the same forcing level, particularly when comparing RCP4.5 with SSP2-4.5, while both RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 consistently indicated greater hydrologic alterations than their moderate-emissions counterparts. These findings highlight the importance of considering different flow regimes when assessing the impacts of climate variability on streamflow. This study contributes to the understanding of hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins, providing insights for water resource management and ecological conservation efforts in the region.

Alabama↗

USGS2018

Fire, vegetation, and Holocene climate in a southeastern Tibetan lake: a multi-biomarker reconstruction from Paru Co

The fire history of the Tibetan Plateau over centennial to millennial timescales is not well known. Recent ice core studies reconstruct fire history over the past few decades but do not extend through the Holocene. Lacustrine sedimentary cores, however, can provide continuous records of local environmental change on millennial scales during the Holocene through the accumulation and preservation of specific organic molecular biomarkers. To reconstruct Holocene fire events and vegetation changes occurring on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and the surrounding areas, we used a multi-proxy approach, investigating multiple biomarkers preserved in core sediment samples retrieved from Paru Co, a small lake located in the Nyainqentanglha Mountains (29°47′45.6′′ N, 92°21′07.2′′ E; 4845 m a.s.l.). Biomarkers include n -alkanes as indicators of vegetation, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) as combustion proxies, fecal sterols and stanols (FeSts) as indicators of the presence of humans or grazing animals, and finally monosaccharide anhydrides (MAs) as specific markers of vegetation burning processes. Insolation changes and the associated influence on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) affect the vegetation distribution and fire types recorded in Paru Co throughout the Holocene. The early Holocene (10.7–7.5 cal kyr BP) n -alkane ratios demonstrate oscillations between grass and conifer communities, resulting in respective smouldering fires represented by levoglucosan peaks, and high-temperature fires represented by high-molecular-weight PAHs. Forest cover increases with a strengthened ISM, where coincident high levoglucosan to mannosan (L ∕ M) ratios are consistent with conifer burning. The decrease in the ISM at 4.2 cal kyr BP corresponds with the expansion of regional civilizations, although the lack of human FeSts above the method detection limits excludes local anthropogenic influence on fire and vegetation changes. The late Holocene is characterized by a relatively shallow lake surrounded by grassland, where all biomarkers other than PAHs display only minor variations. The sum of PAHs steadily increases throughout the late Holocene, suggesting a net increase in local to regional combustion that is separate from vegetation and climate change.

Climate of the Past↗

USGS2018

Factors influencing elk recruitment across ecotypes in the Western United States

Ungulates are key components in ecosystems and economically important for sport and subsistence harvest. Yet the relative importance of the effects of weather conditions, forage productivity, and carnivores on ungulates are not well understood. We examined changes in elk ( Cervus canadensis ) recruitment (indexed as age ratios) across 7 states and 3 ecotypes in the northwestern United States during 1989–2010, while considering the effects of predator richness, forage productivity, and precipitation. We found a broad‐scale, long‐term decrease in elk recruitment of 0.48 juveniles/100 adult females/year. Weather conditions (indexed as summer and winter precipitation) showed small, but measurable, influences on recruitment. Forage productivity on summer and winter ranges (indexed by normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] metrics) had the strongest effect on elk recruitment relative to other factors. Relationships between forage productivity and recruitment varied seasonally and regionally. The productivity of winter habitat was more important in southern parts of the study area, whereas annual variation in productivity of summer habitat had more influence on recruitment in northern areas. Elk recruitment varied by up to 15 juveniles/100 adult females across the range of variation in forage productivity. Areas with more species of large carnivores had relatively low elk recruitment, presumably because of increased predation. Wolves ( Canis lupus ) were associated with a decrease of 5 juveniles/100 adult females, whereas grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) were associated with an additional decrease of 7 juveniles/100 adult females. Carnivore species can have a critical influence on ungulate recruitment because their influence rivals large ranges of variation in environmental conditions. A more pressing concern, however, stems from persistent broad‐scale decreases in recruitment across the distribution of elk in the northwestern United States, irrespective of carnivore richness. Our results suggest that wildlife managers interested in improving recruitment of elk consider the combined effects of habitat and predators. Efforts to manage summer and winter ranges to increase forage productivity may have a positive effect on recruitment.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2016

Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea’s potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state’s vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska’s first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and whitefish ( Coregonus nelsonii ) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040–2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Florida↗