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Results for “Permafrost and Periglacial Processes”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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1,660 records · Page 64Linked to original sources
USGS1986

Regionalization of low-flow characteristics of Tennessee streams

Procedures for estimating 3-day 2-year, 3-day 10-year, 3-day 20-year, and 7-day 10-year low flows at ungaged stream sites in Tennessee are based on surface geology and drainage area size. One set of equations applies to west Tennessee streams, and another set applies to central and east Tennessee streams. The equations do not apply to streams where flow is significantly altered by activities of man. Standard errors of estimate of equations for west Tennessee are 24 to 32% and for central and east Tennessee 31 to 35%. Streamflow recession indexes, in days/log cycle, are used to account for effects of geology of the drainage basin on low flow of streams. The indexes in Tennessee range from 32 days/log cycle for clay and shale to 350 days/log cycle for gravel and sand, indicating different aquifer characteristics of the geologic units that sustain streamflows during periods of no surface runoff. Streamflow recession rate depends primarily on transmissivity and storage characteristics of the aquifers, and the average distance from stream channels to basin divides. Geology and drainage basin size are the most significant variables affecting low flow in Tennessee streams according to regression analyses. (Author 's abstract)

Tennessee↗
USGS2024

Seismic response comparison of a historical masonry church subject to real and simulated ground motions

In recent years, advanced numerical models and high-performance computing have facilitated the utilization of ground motion time series in the assessment of the non-linear dynamic behavior of historic masonry structures. Since recorded accelerograms can be sparse for specific analysis conditions, stochastic ground motion simulations have become a viable alternative to overcome this limitation. This study simulates the recorded acceleration time series of the Central Italy 2016 earthquake event at the closest station to the town of Macerata using a site-based stochastic approach. The simulated motions are seismologically evaluated using a goodness-of-fit method in terms of various intensity measures. The simulated records, in conjunction with real records, are used to study the non-linear dynamic behavior of San Filippo Neri church located in Macerata. The church of San Filippo represents an important example of Baroque religious architecture in central Italy, which was damaged and closed off to the public after the 2016 earthquake events. The construction was investigated with a vast diagnostic campaign which included on-site testing and dynamic identification tests. The collected data is used to calibrate the dynamic response of a three-dimensional finite element model of the church. The model is finally used to compare the non-linear seismic responses under real and simulated ground motions with the site recorded damage. The results of structural responses demonstrate a strong agreement between the real and simulated records, providing evidence to support the validation of the site-based stochastic simulation.

Macerata↗
USGS2026

Software to support remote sensing of river discharge based on critical flow theory

Water resource management requires accurate observations of streamflow but standard field methods for measuring river discharge ( Q ) are costly and can be hazardous for equipment and personnel. Remote sensing has become a viable alternative, but many image-based techniques require field data for calibration and depth and velocity can seldom be mapped with a single sensor. A new approach based on critical flow theory, in contrast, allows both of these attributes to be inferred from readily available image data. This technique only pertains to sites with standing waves, called undular hydraulic jumps (UHJs), but a recent investigation demonstrated its potential to provide accurate discharge estimates. This paper introduces software designed to facilitate Inferring Q from UHJs Identified in River Images (InQUIRI). The package includes modules for retrieving data from image servers, making the measurements of wavelength and width required to calculate discharge, inferring a representative wavelength from a profile digitized along a wave train, combining multiple estimates to obtain an ensemble median discharge, and assessing accuracy via comparison to gage records from the U.S. Geological Survey. By making these steps easier to implement, InQUIRI enables users to apply the workflow to a variety of UHJ-containing images. Accumulating more case studies, some successful and others less so, would help constrain the range of applicability of the critical flow approach and foster development of refined guidelines for selecting and measuring waves. The software described herein could play an important role in promoting informed use of this new technique for non-contact streamflow measurement.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS2024

Mapping the resistivity structure of Walker Ridge 313 in the Gulf of Mexico using the marine CSEM method

A marine controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) campaign was carried out in the Gulf of Mexico to further develop marine electromagnetic techniques in order to aid the detection and mapping of gas hydrate deposits. Marine CSEM methods are used to obtain an electrical resistivity structure of the subsurface which can indicate the type of substance filling the pore space, such as gas hydrates which are more resistive. Results from the Walker Ridge 313 study (WR 313) are presented in this paper and compared with the Gulf of Mexico Gas Hydrate Joint Industry Project II (JIP2) logging while drilling (LWD) results and available seismic data. The hydrate, known to exist within sheeted sand deposits, is mapped as a resistive region in the two dimensional (2D) CSEM inversion models. This is consistent with the JIP2 LWD resistivity results. CSEM inversions that use seismic horizons provide more realistic results compared to the unconstrained inversions by providing sharp boundaries and architectural control on the location of the resistive and conductive regions in the CSEM model. The seismic horizons include: 1) the base of the gas hydrate stability zone (BGHSZ), 2) the top of salt, and 3) the top and bottom of a fine grained marine mud interval with near vertical hydrate filled fractures, to constrain the CSEM inversion model. The top of salt provides improved location for brines, water saturated salt, and resistive salt. Inversions of the CSEM data map the occurrence of a ‘halo’ of conductive brines above salt. The use of the BGHSZ as a constraint on the inversion helps distinguish between free gas and gas hydrate as well as gas hydrate and water saturated sediments.

Louisiana↗
USGS2026

Influence of new residential construction varying in housing density on bird species, human tolerance guilds, and communities

Human population growth and changing settlement patterns fuel the development of urban fringe lands worldwide, with implications for biodiversity. We conducted a 12-year study of birds in the fast-developing urban fringe lands of the central Puget Sound region, Washington, USA, to examine the effect of development configuration on birds. We hypothesized that lower-intensity conservation developments, compared to higher-intensity planned community developments, would benefit the overall bird community, as well as native forest birds (avoiders of human development) and avian generalist species (adapters to human development), but that higher-intensity planned community developments would benefit synanthropic species (exploiters of human development). We fit single-species and multi-species occupancy models to test these hypotheses. Consistent with our hypotheses, we found that a greater proportion of the overall community, avoiders, and adapters occupied lower-intensity conservation developments compared to higher-intensity planned community developments. However, we did not detect an effect of development type on the exploiter guild, and we found that species in the exploiter guild are variable in their response to the configuration of suburban developments. We also hypothesized that human tolerance guilds would be a useful predictor of individual species responses to development type. This hypothesis was somewhat supported: we found that, for avoiders, 87% of species in the guild had the same response to development type as the overall guild; for adapters, 63% had the same response as the overall guild, and for exploiters, only 44% had the same response as the overall guild. Our results indicate that the configuration of suburban developments can have a meaningful impact on bird communities, particularly on those species that are most sensitive to any level of development.

Washington↗
USGS2024

Exploring the dynamic interactions between the Southern San Andreas Fault and a normal fault under the Salton Sea

We investigate the dynamic interactions between the Southern San Andreas Fault (SSAF) and a proximal normal fault (NF) beneath the Salton Sea in southern California. The NF, positioned near the SSAF terminus at Bombay Beach, exhibits 11–15 displacement events across 14 stratigraphic sequences, with a range of 0.2–1.4 m of vertical offset since ∼2–3 ka. Notably, four of these events may align temporally with SSAF earthquakes, raising questions about the possible interplay between the two faults. Utilizing dynamic rupture models, we analyze the coseismic interactions between the SSAF and NF, addressing under what conditions the SSAF induces slip on the NF. Our findings reveal that a suite of SSAF ruptures, particularly those propagating from north to south, can trigger slip on the normal fault and replicate observed vertical offsets. If the SSAF extends beneath the Salton Sea, earthquakes originating south of the NF intersection are less likely to trigger normal fault slip, although we cannot exclude this possibility. Some SSAF ruptures do not trigger discernible slip on the NF, rendering such events undetectable in the stratigraphic record. Our research contributes toward discussions regarding the seismic hazard in southern California, shedding light on the interplay between the SSAF and NF.

California↗
USGS2025

Variable partitioning of lithium in rhyolitic melt during decompression and ascent

The partitioning behavior of Li in magmatic systems is increasingly being investigated due to the economic importance of Li in the transition to sustainable energy resources (e.g., batteries). However, at upper crustal pressures, it remains uncertain whether Li preferentially partitions into the vapor or liquid (brine) phase or remains in the silicate melt. This complicates our ability to determine where Li resides—silicate melt, minerals, or fluid phase—upon eruption, a crucial factor for understanding its postdepositional movement and concentration into a brine or volcano-sedimentary deposit. Here, we present a novel investigation into the behavior of Li within natural evolved melts during continuous magma decompression and ascent using melt embayments (open melt inclusions). Mineral-hosted melt embayments preserve records of the evolving composition of the exterior melt, including degassing pathways and ascent timescales, when paired with appropriate diffusion coefficients. Lithium concentration profiles were measured in quartz-hosted melt embayments from the rapidly quenched eruptive phases of five rhyolitic, caldera-forming eruptions to investigate the behavior of Li during magma decompression and ascent, where vapor partitioning and ascent dynamics were previously established by investigating H 2 O and CO 2 profiles. We find that in four systems, embayments contain lower interior Li concentrations than the coerupted melt inclusions; the fifth system contains the same Li concentrations in embayments and melt inclusions. However, many of these embayments contain gradients, with 84 % preserving Li enrichment near the melt-bubble interface, as compared to their interior concentration. We interpret these characteristics to represent two distinct stages of Li partitioning during magma decompression and ascent, in contrast to existing literature that proposes only one type of partitioning behavior. The first stage is interpreted as melt depletion of Li, likely driven by partitioning into an exsolved supercritical fluid phase, supported by the strong correlation between the extent of Li depletion and Cl concentration in the melt, as well as the decompression rate. This behavior then fundamentally shifts, where Li reenriches in the melt, postulated to be driven by the unmixing of the supercritical fluid phase at shallow pressures. For the one system that did not develop Li gradients through decompression, we attribute this to the lower values of Na and Cl in the melt, potentially inhibiting the partitioning of Li into a fluid phase. Importantly, the behavior of Li during decompression is not consistent within or between volcanic centers, highlighting the need for systematic experimental investigation in variable composition melts at pressures relevant to conduit dynamics. This knowledge would improve our ability to model Li profiles to understand magma decompression, and predict where Li resides (e.g., stored in volcanic glass, gas, or crystals) upon eruption prior to any later extraction.

Economic Geology↗
USGS1983

Base flow and ground water in upper Sweetwater Valley, Tennessee

The upper Sweetwater Valley area has a flow system with complex interaction between surface and ground water. A water budget study indicated that during dry years approximately three-fourths of the annual flow to Sweetwater Creek may be derived from ground-water sources. Hydrograph analysis showed seasonal variation of recharge to the ground-water flow system. Streamflow records were analyzed to estimate the frequency of low flow of Sweetwater Creek at river mile 16.7, and indicated the lowest average flow for 1 day in 20 years to be about 5.1 cubic feet per second. Two periods of base-flow measurements of Sweetwater Creek identified channel reaches with significant gains and losses of streamflow. Base flow measurements also showed interbasin transfer of water among sub-basins of the valley. Major flow surpluses were associated with areas in which the majority of flow originated at a spring. Topographically low areas adjacent to the main stem of Sweetwater Creek generally have surplus flow. Topographically higher areas generally have deficient surface outflow unless significant spring flow occurs in the basin. Ground-water recharge occurs by water draining into sinkholes, faults, and fractures. Ground-water flow is regionally diffused across formation strikes from the topographically low areas unless the water is exposed to highly permeable formations or impervious formations. Ground water infiltrates the highly permeable formations and flows along strike. Ground water encountering impervious formations may discharge at small springs at the contact, or may reroute along the contact if the upgradient rock is sufficiently permeable or has well developed secondary porosity. Groundwater discharges to streams at innumerable seeps and at a few large springs. Areas of ground-water flow up-gradient of large springs are hypothesized as likely areas of significant ground-water reservoirs.

Tennessee↗
USGS2024

High resolution identification and quantification of diffuse deep groundwater discharge in mountain rivers using continuous boat-mounted helium measurements

Discharge of deeply sourced groundwater to streams is difficult to locate and quantify, particularly where both discrete and diffuse discharge points exist, but diffuse discharge is one of the primary controls on solute budgets in mountainous watersheds. The noble gas helium is a unique identifier of deep groundwater discharge because groundwater with long residence times is commonly enriched in helium. In this study, a portable mass spectrometer was used to measure longitudinal variation in dissolved helium concentrations in two mountainous rivers at high spatial resolution not feasible with traditional sampling techniques. Helium profiles were then simulated using a mass-balance model to quantify longitudinal variation in groundwater discharge to the receiving rivers. Results indicate helium concentrations were enriched by multiple orders of magnitude above atmospheric equilibrium in both rivers and that this persisted for up to 18 km below observed pulse inputs in the Colorado River. Helium mass-balance models match observed longitudinal patterns with the exception of sharp initial increases in helium observed in the rivers. Increased longitudinal groundwater discharge rates correspond to mapped geologic structures in both watersheds that likely transport deep geothermal water. Models show variable sensitivity to spatial assignment of input variables representing the groundwater source, illustrating the importance of collecting data from discrete groundwater discharges where possible. The methodology shows promise for field experiments designed to assess air–water exchange rates and to quantify total groundwater discharge from a combination of discrete and diffuse sources.

Colorado, Utah↗
USGS2026

King Rails in southeastern Arkansas are majority resident

King Rails ( Rallus elegans ), a declining species of secretive marsh bird, have a mixed migratory strategy, with some individuals migrating and some being year-round residents. Determining the distribution of migratory versus resident King Rails is critical to guiding habitat management and assessing risks to populations. We examined the migratory status of adult King Rails at the Choctaw West Wildlife Management Area in southeastern Arkansas, the only known site in Arkansas with multiple breeding pairs. Of the 23 adult King Rails we tagged in 2022 and 2023, two birds migrated away from the local area, one in each year. One migrated 145 km, and the other 450 km. Our findings suggest that the line between the migratory and resident range of Arkansas King Rails could be north of our site.

Arkansas↗
USGS2026

Tringa flavipes (Lesser Yellowlegs) from separate breeding sites subdivides the Prairie Pothole Region in space and time during southbound migration

Some staging regions support multiple groups of the same migratory species, each of which may use the region differently. Characterizing the ways, in which separate groups use such regions can therefore help to identify vulnerabilities during this sensitive period of the annual cycle. The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is a massive wetland complex in the northern Great Plains of North America used by ∼11 million shorebirds during migration. The PPR has been heavily modified by agriculture and is experiencing varied effects of global climate change, threatening the health of the shorebirds that rely on it. Here, we used 6 seasons of southbound tracking data of Tringa flavipes (Lesser Yellowlegs)—a long-distance migratory shorebird species with an estimated population decline of 63% over the last 4 decades—from 9 sites across their breeding range to explore differences in migratory behavior within this important staging region. We found that 75% of tracked individuals used the region during southbound migration, and T. flavipes from different breeding sites detoured 110–875 km from their most direct migratory route to access the PPR. Individuals that arrived later stayed longer and made more stops within the region than those that arrived early. Individuals originating from different breeding sites also displayed spatial and temporal segregation within the region: T. flavipes from southwest and central Alaska relied heavily on the northwestern PPR, while those from Canada used the central and southeastern portions of the PPR. Finally, timing of use varied among groups, but the southeastern PPR became increasingly important over the course of the southbound migratory window, as other wetlands likely dried out. Our study highlights the portions of the PPR of critical importance to migrating T. flavipes and the diversity of ways, in which different groups from within the same species can use a single staging region.

Alaska, Manitoba, Northwest Territories, Ontario, ↗
USGS2026

Bayesian belief network model to predict human-wildlife conflict in protected areas

Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) poses a pervasive global challenge, affecting livelihoods and threatening biodiversity. To better anticipate and mitigate HWC risk, we developed a large-scale predictive model using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). We surveyed 1,011 park rangers across 135 terrestrial protected areas in three Andean countries, documenting recent HWC incidents involving wildlife persecution or killing, livestock depredation, crop damage, or threats to human safety and property. We identified key drivers of HWC risk, including governance, wildlife acceptance, participation, and habitat quality. A sensitivity analysis revealed that enhancing governance and improving wildlife acceptance could reduce HWC risk by > 85%. The BBN model demonstrated scalability, effectively identifying strategies to reduce HWC risk at multiple scales, from individual protected areas to national networks. Our findings highlight the importance of strengthening governance, increasing wildlife acceptance, and enhancing community participation in conservation efforts. BBNs provide a flexible, cost-effective, and data-driven tool to guide protected areas and wildlife managers in monitoring, anticipating, and making informed decisions to mitigate conflict and promote coexistence.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2025

Central Valley Hydrologic Model version 2 (CVHM2): Decision support tool for groundwater and land subsidence management

The San Joaquin Valley (SJV) of California is one of the world’s most productive agricultural regions. Reliance on groundwater has led to some of the greatest rates of human-induced land subsidence in the world in the 20th century, as well as more recently. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has recently developed an integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model, the Central Valley Hydrologic Model 2 (CVHM2), that represents the major components of the hydrologic system of California’s Central Valley. In this study, CVHM2 was applied as a decision support tool while simulating various management strategies to mitigate the land subsidence caused by the extraction of groundwater. CVHM2 was extended through to 2073 and applied to simulate management scenarios in terms of three primary drivers and their impact on subsidence along the Delta–Mendota Canal (DMC), a critical piece of infrastructure in the western SJV. The drivers considered were agricultural water demands, managed aquifer recharge (MAR), and changes in future climate. The results show that future subsidence is most sensitive to water demands, second most sensitive to future changes in climate, and relatively insensitive to MAR when it is applied as a surface application in the western SJV. However, we demonstrate via proof-of-concept scenarios that the MAR is capable of arresting subsidence when implemented via injection below the Corcoran Clay Member of the Tulare Formation instead of as a surface application. We also examine the uncertainty that is the result of climate variability and how to use the tool to identify the most appropriate strategies to constrain future subsidence to acceptable levels.

California↗
USGS2023

Don’t Let Negatives Hold You Back: Accounting for Underlying Physics and Natural Distributions of Hydrothermal Systems When Selecting Negative Training Sites Leads to Better Machine Learning Predictions

Selecting negative training sites is an important challenge to resolve when utilizing machine learning (ML) for predicting hydrothermal resource favorability because ideal models would discriminate between hydrothermal systems (positives) and all types of locations without hydrothermal systems (negatives). The Nevada Machine Learning project (NVML) fit an artificial neural network to identify areas favorable for hydrothermal systems by selecting 62 negative sites where the research team had confidence that no hydrothermal resource exists. Herein, we compare the implications of the expert selection of negatives (i.e., the NVML strategy) with a random sample strategy, where it is assumed that areas outside the favorable structural ellipses defined by NVML are negative. Because hydrothermal systems are sparse, it is highly probable that, in the absence of a favorable geological structure, hydrothermal favorability is low. We compare three training strategies: 1) the positive and negative labeled examples from NVML; 2) the positive examples from NVML with randomly selected negatives in equal frequency as NVML; and 3) the positive examples from NVML with randomly selected negatives reflecting the expected natural distribution of hydrothermal systems relative to the total area. We apply these training strategies to the NVML feature data (input data) using two ML algorithms (XGBoost and logistic regression) to create six favorability maps for hydrothermal resources. When accounting for the expected natural distribution of hydrothermal systems, we find that XGBoost performs better than the NVML neural network and its negatives. Model validation was less reliable using F1 scores, a common performance metric, than comparing probability estimates at known positives, likely because of the extreme natural class imbalance and the lack of negatively labeled sites. This work demonstrates that expert selection of negatives for training in NVML likely imparted modeling bias. Accounting for the sparsity of hydrothermal systems and all the types of locations without hydrothermal systems allows us to create better models for predicting hydrothermal resource favorability.

Geothermal Resources Council Transactions↗
USGS2024

Uncertainty and spatial correlation in station measurements for mb magnitude estimation

The body‐wave magnitude (⁠⁠) is a long‐standing network‐averaged, amplitude‐based magnitude used to estimate the magnitude of seismic sources from teleseismic observations. The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) relies on in its global real‐time earthquake monitoring mission. Although waveform modeling‐based moment magnitudes are the modern standard to characterize earthquake size, is important because (1) in many cases, waveform modeling is not possible (e.g., low signal‐to‐noise events), (2) is applicable over a broad range of magnitudes, ∼M 4–7, and (3) there is a many decades‐long history of estimating magnitudes. We use the NEIC Preliminary Determination of Epicenters earthquake catalog to investigate the uncertainty in NEIC station measurements. We show that measurements are spatially correlated, which can bias event ⁠, and we describe an empirical relation between this spatial correlation and station‐to‐station distance. We further describe an approach to mitigate bias from the spatial correlation. Accounting for the spatial covariance of observations can change the event from −0.15 to 0.07 units (10th to 90th percentile) for smaller events (⁠⁠). These smaller events have the largest standard deviations ranging from 0.05 to 0.15 units (10th to 90th percentile).

The Seismic Record↗
USGS2024

Seismicity and anisotropic imaging reveal an active detachment beneath the northern Alaska Range foothills

North of the Denali Fault, the collision between the Yakutat block with North America is accommodated by a fold-thrust belt giving rise to the northern Alaska Range foothills. At the western end, the Kantishna Hills anticline hosts prominent microseismicity and surface deformation, interpreted as active folding of the Kantishna Hills anticline above a midcrustal detachment. We test for this detachment by using anisotropy-aware receiver functions to image fabric contrasts within the crust in context with seismicity. Seismic stations near the crest of the Kantishna Hills anticline and near its southern flank show a single strong contrast in dipping fabric at depths of 12–13 km near microseismicity clustering depths, consistent with a detachment plane beneath the fold. A minimum b -value at 10–13 km depth is consistent with seismicity on the detachment, compatible with the imaged anisotropic contrast, while off-fault seismicity is shallower and deeper with smaller magnitudes. South-dipping imbricate thrusts in schist characterize the northern Alaska Range foothills structure. This supports our interpretation of the observed anisotropy as reflecting SSW–SSE-dipping foliation above a detachment at ∼10–13 km depth that exploits existing crustal weaknesses along subtle fabric contrasts observed in the seismically quiescent region north of the actively deforming belt.

Alaska↗
USGS1991

Reconnaissance of the occurrence of agricultural chemicals in ground water in Haywood, Lake, Obion and Shelby Counties, Tennessee

Data on the occurrence of agricultural chemicals in ground wafer in Tennessee are sparse. The surficial alluvial aquifer is an important source of domestic water supply in West Tennessee, and potentially is subject fo contamination from the application of agricultural chemicals in the area. Nineteen shallow wells completed in the alluvial aquifers in areas of high density agricultural use were sampled in the winter and again in the summer of 1988 to ascertain the occurrence of agricultural chemical in ground water. Although no triazine herbicides or organophosphorus insecticides were detected in any of the wells sampled, elevated nitrite plus nitrate (as nitrogen) concentrations were detected. Results from the winter sampling period indicate a range of nitrite plus nitrate (as nitrogen) concentrations of less than 0.1 to 7.8 milligrams per liter with a median concentration of 2.6 milligrams per liter. Results from the summer sampling period indicate a range of nitrite plus nitrate (as nitrogen) concentrations of less than 0.1 to 8.9 milligrams per liter, median, 2.5 milligrams per liter. The highest concentrations occurred in the shallowest wells, and, in one instance, in a shallow well near a heavily irrigated field.

Tennessee↗
USGS2026

Overstorey mortality promotes juvenile piñon pine growth during favourable weather at cooler, wetter sites

Hotter droughts have resulted in widespread tree die-off events globally, frequently leading to regeneration failure. Dry forest recovery often depends on the growth and survival of extant juvenile trees. However, it is unclear how microenvironmental changes following overstorey tree die-off affect juvenile trees, particularly in dryland systems where tree recruitment is typically limited by water availability and heat stress. We simulated an overstorey tree die-off event by girdling trees in piñon-juniper woodlands across the south-western United States. We sampled juvenile piñon pine growth from live and dead overstorey treatments across six study sites spanning a regional latitudinal gradient and local elevational gradients. We examined how juvenile branch and needle growth differed between live and dead overstorey treatments, and whether responses varied with weather conditions and juvenile tree size following overstorey mortality. We found greater juvenile branch and needle growth under dead compared with live overstorey trees for 2 years following overstorey mortality at mid- and high-elevation sites which are typically cooler and wetter than the other sites. These observed growth releases were contingent on favourable post-mortality weather conditions. Higher growth under dead overstorey occurred at sites experiencing near-average climatic water deficits compared with sites experiencing above-average climatic water deficits. Growth at all sites increased from the first to second year after overstorey mortality. Across sites, growth was unrelated to juvenile tree size. Synthesis . Our results underscore differentiation in juvenile responses to overstorey tree die-off driven by local site conditions and weather across the range of Pinus edulis . Overstorey mortality resulted in consistently higher juvenile growth only at climatically favourable sites and during favourable weather, while unmeasured microsite differences could help account for variation observed at the hottest and driest site. Results from less climatically favourable sites suggest that overstorey trees neither directly limit nor facilitate juvenile growth, though further study over longer timeframes is needed to resolve the pace and magnitude of potential recovery or decline. Overall, juvenile vigour may be promoted following overstorey mortality only in a narrow spatial (site) and temporal (weather) environmental context, suggesting additional vulnerabilities for piñon populations under more arid conditions.

Arizona, Colorado↗