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At least 1,153 records · Page 64Linked to original sources
USGS2002

Displaced rocks, strong motion, and the mechanics of shallow faulting associated with the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

The paucity of strong-motion stations near the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake makes it impossible to make instrumental studies of key questions about near-fault strong-motion patterns associated with this event. However, observations of displaced rocks allow a qualitative investigation of these problems. By observing the slope of the desert surface and the frictional coefficient between these rocks and the desert surface, we estimate the minimum horizontal acceleration needed to displace the rocks. Combining this information with observations of how many rocks were displaced in different areas near the fault, we infer the level of shaking. Given current empirical shaking attenuation relationships, the number of rocks that moved is slightly lower than expected; this implies that slightly lower than expected shaking occurred during the Hector Mine earthquake. Perhaps more importantly, stretches of the fault with 4 m of total displacement at the surface displaced few nearby rocks on 15?? slopes, suggesting that the horizontal accelerations were below 0.2g within meters of the fault scarp. This low level of shaking suggests that the shallow parts of this rupture did not produce strong accelerations. Finally, we did not observe an increased incidence of displaced rocks along the fault zone itself. This suggests that, despite observations of fault-zone-trapped waves generated by aftershocks of the Hector Mine earthquake, such waves were not an important factor in controlling peak ground acceleration during the mainshock.

California↗
USGS2004

Hawaiian submarine manganese-iron oxide crusts - A dating tool?

Black manganese-iron oxide crusts form on most exposed rock on the ocean floor. Such crusts are well developed on the steep lava slopes of the Hawaiian Ridge and have been sampled during dredging and submersible dives. The crusts also occur on fragments detached from bedrock by mass wasting, on submerged coral reefs, and on poorly lithified sedimentary rocks. The thickness of the crusts was measured on samples collected since 1965 on the Hawaiian Ridge from 140 dive or dredge localities. Fifty-nine (42%) of the sites were collected in 2001 by remotely operated vehicles (ROVs). The thinner crusts on many samples apparently result from postdepositional breakage, landsliding, and intermittent burial of outcrops by sediment. The maximum crust thickness was selected from each dredge or dive site to best represent crusts on the original rock surface at that site. The measurements show an irregular progressive thickening of the crusts toward the northwest—i.e., progressive thickening toward the older volcanic features with increasing distance from the Hawaiian hotspot. Comparison of the maximum crust thickness with radiometric ages of related subaerial features supports previous studies that indicate a crust-growth rate of about 2.5 mm/m.y. The thickness information not only allows a comparison of the relative exposure ages of two or more features offshore from different volcanoes, but also provides specific age estimates of volcanic and landslide deposits. The data indicate that some of the landslide blocks within the south Kona landslide are the oldest exposed rock on Mauna Loa, Kilauea, or Loihi volcanoes. Crusts on the floors of submarine canyons off Kohala and East Molokai volcanoes indicate that these canyons are no longer serving as channelways for downslope, sediment-laden currents. Mahukona volcano was approximately synchronous with Hilo Ridge, both being younger than Hana Ridge. The Nuuanu landslide is considerably older than the Wailau landslide. The Waianae landslide southwest of Oahu has yielded samples with the greatest manganese-iron oxide crusts (9.5 mm thick) and therefore apparently represents the oldest submarine material yet found in the study area. The submarine volcanic field 100 km southwest of Oahu is apparently younger than the Waianae landslide.

Hawaii↗
USGS2002

Timing and magnitude of Broad-winged Hawk migration at Montclair Hawk Lookout, New Jersey, and Hawk Mountain Sanctuary, Pennsylvania

The Broad-winged Hawk ( Buteo platypterus ) breeds in eastern and central Canada and the United States, and winters in Central America and northern and central South America. Birders and ornithologists count migrating Broad-winged Hawks at dozens of traditional watch sites throughout the northeastern United States. We modeled counts of migrating Broad-winged Hawks from two raptor migration watch sites: Montclair Hawk Lookout, New Jersey, and Hawk Mountain Sanctuary, Pennsylvania, to determine whether annual abundance and trend estimates from individual sites within the mid-Atlantic states are representative of the region as a whole. We restricted ourselves to counts made between 10:00 and 16:00 EST during September to standardize count effort between sites. We created one model set for annual counts and another model set for daily counts. When modeling daily counts we incorporated weather and identity of individual observers. Akaike’s Information Criteria were used to select the best model from an initial set of competing models. Annual counts declined at both sites during 1979–1998. Broad-winged Hawk migration began, peaked, and ended later at Montclair than at Hawk Mountain, even though Hawk Mountain is 155 km west-southwest of Montclair. Mean annual counts of hawks at Montclair were more than twice those at Hawk Mountain, but were not correlated. Broad-winged Hawks counted at Montclair may not be the same birds as those counted at Hawk Mountain. Rather, the two sites may be monitoring different regional subpopulations. Broad-winged Hawks counted at the two sites may use different migration tactics, with those counted at Hawk Mountain being more likely to slope soar, and those at Montclair more likely to use thermal soaring. A system of multiple watch sites is needed to monitor various breeding populations of this widely dispersed migrant.

New Jersey, Pennsylvania↗
USGS1998

Winter habitat of Kirtland's warbler: an endangered nearctic/neotropical migrant

Habitats of Kirtland?s Warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii) on the wintering grounds in the Bahama Archipelago are presented based upon data from 29 specimens, two bandings, and 67 sightings of at least 61 individuals on 13 islands scattered through the region. Major emphasis is placed on a study site in central Eleuthera, with additional information on sites on Grand Turk, North Caicos, and Crooked Island. The warblers used upland habitats that have a low shrub/scrub component with a patchiness of small openings and openings within the vegetation at the ground level. Six broad habitats were identified as being used: Natural Shrub/Scrub, Secondary Shrub/Scrub, Low Coppice, Pineland Understory, Saline/Upland Ecotone, and Suburban; High Coppice is not used. The structure and floristic composition of the habitats are described. Observations (N=451) of a Kirtland?s Warbler male (uniquely color banded) and female over three months indicated the birds generally stayed on or near the ground, generally < 3 m (98% of observations), and used a territory of 8.3 ha. A crude estimate of potential winter habitat suggests that there is more than an adequate amount in the Bahama Archipelago for the currently small warbler population (733 singing males in 1997) and allows for a considerable population increase. No serious future threat to the amount of that habitat is foreseen.

The Wilson Bulletin↗
USGS2002

Test of a habitat suitability index for black bears in the southern Appalachians

We present a habitat suitability index (HSI) model for black bears (Ursus americanus) living in the southern Appalachians that was developed a priori from the literature, then tested using location and home range data collected in the Pisgah Bear Sanctuary, North Carolina, over a 12-year period. The HSI was developed and initially tested using habitat and bear data collected over 2 years in the sanctuary. We increased number of habitat sampling sites, included data collected in areas affected by timber harvest, used more recent Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to create a more accurate depiction of the HSI for the sanctuary, evaluated effects of input variability on HSI values, and duplicated the original tests using more data. We found that the HSI predicted habitat selection by bears on population and individual levels and the distribution of collared bears were positively correlated with HSI values. We found a stronger relationship between habitat selection by bears and a second-generation HSI. We evaluated our model with criteria suggested by Roloff and Kernohan (1999) for evaluating HSI model reliability and concluded that our model was reliable and robust. The model's strength is that it was developed as an a priori hypothesis directly modeling the relationship between critical resources and fitness of bears and tested with independent data. We present the HSI spatially as a continuous fitness surface where potential contribution of habitat to the fitness of a bear is depicted at each point in space.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2026

Growth and erosion of volcanic islands since 1963 analyzed by multi-sensor satellite data and historical records

Most volcanic activity is taking place in the oceans. Depending on water depth, eruption recurrence times and volumes, a new island can form. The power of erosional forces, the type of erupted material and the efficiency of secondary processes determine the island’s lifetime. Since the famous eruption of Surtsey (Iceland) in 1963, at least another 23 volcanic islands have appeared. Some islands remained intact for years or decades, whereas others disappeared within just weeks or months. In this study, we analyzed satellite data to determine growth and erosion rates of the volcanic edifices related to these 24 islands. We combined multi-sensor (optical, thermal, radar) satellite data time series with information from literature and the Global Volcanism Program database. We developed a comprehensive dataset, including 19 parameters, on the islands’ lifetime, shape, area, volume, eruption style and duration, environmental conditions, development of sedimentary deposits, and the geomorphic evolution of the island over time. Our dataset is available in a database format. This database allows us to test eight hypotheses about factors influencing the islands’ lifetime. Our results show that instead of one single critical factor, a combination of different factors influences the life history of volcanic islands. For instance, we show that larger islands do not necessarily live longer. The mechanical properties of the eruption products affect the island’s structural integrity. Irrespective of the material, a minimum initial area of around 50,000 m 2 seems to be a reasonable threshold to give the island a chance to exist longer.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS2026

The potential impact of three-dimensional distributed slip models derived from real-time GNSS data on the performance of the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for slab interface earthquakes

The ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning (EEW) system is designed to warn users of imminent strong ground motion with sufficient time to take protective actions. ShakeAlert currently uses three algorithms to characterize the earthquake source. One estimates the location and magnitude using the first few seconds of the P wave and, while fast, tends to underestimate magnitude for M w 7.0+ earthquakes. A second estimates the location, orientation, length, and corresponding magnitude of a line source using observed peak ground acceleration and contributes primarily to M w 5.5+ earthquakes. The third infers earthquake magnitude from peak ground displacement measured using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data and offers nonsaturating magnitudes for M w 7.0+ earthquakes. Other EEW algorithms exist that infer temporally evolving spatially variable slip on a 3D fault surface from real‐time GNSS data, information that might enable more accurate and timely alerts in the event of large‐magnitude subduction interface earthquakes. Here, we evaluate the potential contribution of one such algorithm, BEFORES ( Minson et al. , 2014 ), to improve ShakeAlert performance through a simulated real‐time implementation of Bayesian evidence‐based fault orientation and real‐time earthquake slip (BEFORES) and other ShakeAlert algorithms using data for eight M w 7.6+ earthquakes. The test results demonstrate that BEFORES can produce well‐constrained and accurate magnitude estimates as soon as or sooner than other EEW algorithms, in turn enabling it to increase the amount of warning time users receive in many cases. However, with a modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) threshold of 3.5, which is commonly used for issuing alerts, BEFORES would tend to alert large geographic regions that did not feel strong shaking (MMI 6+). This effect can be mitigated using a higher alert threshold of MMI 4.5 without negative impact on the amount of warning time obtainable with BEFORES.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2024

Salmon data mobilization

Despite substantial research and conservation efforts, many salmon populations are in decline. Globally, salmon research is not delivering effective decision support products to help managers apply research insights as informed management actions. Data Mobilization (DM) is a key step towards building the wider evidence base required to deliver accountable, reliable, and usable scientific advice to managers. Best practices for DM are being adopted throughout the scientific community but have not permeated deeply into the culture of salmon research and conservation. To address this, we present a strategy for Salmon Data Mobilization (SDM). This strategy defines three spheres of agencies and practitioners that must interact to advance SDM: (1) authoritative bodies that can create policies to support SDM uptake; (2) agencies that can promote, fund, and implement those policies; and (3) the broad salmon community of practice that can support uptake of SDM within focused interest groups. We sketch a future for SDM and propose functional changes required to improve it throughout the community.

North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission Bulletin↗
USGS2013

Data management challenges in species distribution modeling

An important component in the fields of ecology and conservation biology is understanding the environmental conditions and geographic areas that are suitable for a given species to inhabit. A common tool in determining such areas is species distribution modeling which uses computer algorithms to determine the spatial distribution of organisms. Most commonly the correlative relationships between the organism and environmental variables are the primary consideration. The data requirements for this type of modeling consist of known presence and possibly absence locations of the species as well as the values of environmental or climatic covariates thought to define the species habitat suitability at these locations. These covariate data are generally extracted from remotely sensed imagery, interpolated/gridded historical climate data, or downscaled climate model output. Traditionally, ecologists and biologists have constructed species distribution models using workflows and data that reside primarily on their local workstations or networks. This workflow is becoming challenging as scientists increasingly try to use these modeling techniques to inform management decisions under different climate change scenarios. This challenge stems from the fact that remote sensing products, gridded historical climate, and downscaled climate models are not only increasing in spatial and temporal resolution but proliferating as well. Any rigorous assessment of uncertainty requires a computationally intensive sensitivity analysis accounting for various sources of uncertainty. The scientists fitting these models generally do not have the background in computer science required to take advantage of recent advances in web-service based data acquisition, remote high-powered data processing, or scientific workflow systems. Ecologists in the field of modeling are in need of a tractable platform that abstracts the inherent computational complexity required to incorporate the burgeoning field of coupled climate and ecological response modeling. In this paper we describe the computational challenges in species distribution modeling and solutions using scientific workflow systems. We focus on the Software for Assisted Species Modeling (SAHM) a package within VisTrails, an open-source scientific workflow system.

Bulletin of the Technical Committee on Data Engine↗
USGS2023

The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast

We present the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast for the conterminous United States, which gives authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes throughout the region. In addition to updating virtually all model components, a major focus has been to provide a better representation of epistemic uncertainties. For example, we have improved the representation of multifault ruptures, both in terms of allowing more and less fault connectivity than in the previous models, and in sweeping over a broader range of viable models. An unprecedented level of diagnostic information has been provided for assessing the model, and the development was overseen by a 19‐member participatory review panel. Although we believe the new model embodies significant improvements and represents the best available science, we also discuss potential model limitations, including the applicability of logic tree branch weights with respect different types of hazard and risk metrics. Future improvements are also discussed, with deformation model enhancements being particularly worthy of pursuit, as well as better representation of sampling errors in the gridded seismicity components. We also plan to add time‐dependent components, and assess implications with a wider range of hazard and risk metrics.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2005

Mule deer and pronghorn migration in western Wyoming

Migratory mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) populations rely on seasonal ranges to meet their annual nutritional and energetic requirements. Because seasonal ranges often occur great distances apart and across a mix of vegetation types and land ownership, maintaining migration corridors to and from these ranges can be difficult, especially if managers do not have detailed information on mule deer and pronghorn seasonal movements. We captured, radiomarked, and monitored mule deer (n = 171) and pronghorn (n = 34) in western Wyoming to document seasonal distribution patterns and migration routes. Mule deer and pronghorn migrated 20-158 km and 116-258 km, respectively, between seasonal ranges. These distances represented the longest recorded migrations for either species. We identified a number of bottlenecks along the migration routes of mule deer and pronghorn, but the most critical appeared to be the 1.6-km-wide Trapper's Point bottleneck, which was used by both mule deer and pronghorn during their spring and autumn migrations. Housing developments and roadways apparently have reduced the effective width of this bottleneck to <0.8 km. We estimate 2,500-3,500 mule deer and 1,500-2,000 pronghorn move through the bottleneck twice a year during spring and autumn migrations. Identification and protection of migration corridors and bottlenecks will be necessary to maintain mule deer and pronghorn populations throughout their range.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2017

Reevaluation of thermal maturity and stages of petroleum formation of the Mississippian Barnett Shale, Fort Worth Basin, Texas

New data including measured reflectance (% R o ), programmed open-system pyrolysis data, and kerogen elemental analyses obtained on the Mississippian Barnett Shale in the Fort Worth Basin, Texas, indicate that secondary-gas generation starts at 1.5% R o and not at the previously prescribed 1.1% R o . Oil-cracking kinetic parameters derived from pyrolysis experiments in the presence and absence of water indicate that secondary-gas generation will not occur at a thermal maturity as low as 1.1% R o and requires a minimum thermal maturity of 1.5% R o . This difference is especially important in using the Barnett Shale as an analog for evaluating other possible shale-gas plays. The new reflectance measurements have a good relationship with hydrogen indices (HIs) and compare well with other published data sets. However, the relationship does not compare well with the previously published data used to prescribe 1.1% R o as the start of secondary-gas generation in the Barnett Shale. This discrepancy is attributed to differences in measured % R o values and not attributed to differences in the HI values. Lack of publicly available information on the previously reported % R o values makes it difficult to ascertain the reason for their lower values. These lower % R o values also have impact on the previously prescribed relationship for estimating % R o from the temperature at maximum yield by programmed open-system pyrolysis ( T max ). As a result, the new data do not agree with a previously described relationship, and the considerable scatter makes the new relationship unreliable. However, the relationship between the HI and % R o has less scatter, which indicates that HI offers a better proxy in calculating % R o than T max for the Barnett Shale. Comparison of various programmed open-system pyrolysis methods (i.e., Rock-Eval II, Rock-Eval 6, Source Rock Analyzer, and Hawk) indicates that variations in HI are within ±10% of one another. An HI of at least 44 mg/g total organic carbon is prescribed as a more certain limit for the start of secondary-gas generation and prospective in situ gas-shale accumulations.

Texas↗
USGS2021

Near-real-time volcanic cloud monitoring: Insights into global explosive volcanic eruptive activity through analysis of Volcanic Ash Advisories

Understanding the location, intensity, and likely duration of volcanic hazards is key to reducing risk from volcanic eruptions. Here, we use a novel near-real-time dataset comprising Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAAs) issued over 10 years to investigate global rates and durations of explosive volcanic activity. The VAAs were collected from the nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) worldwide. Information extracted allowed analysis of the frequency and type of explosive behaviour, including analysis of key eruption source parameters (ESPs) such as volcanic cloud height and duration. The results reflect changes in the VAA reporting process, data sources, and volcanic activity through time. The data show an increase in the number of VAAs issued since 2015 that cannot be directly correlated to an increase in volcanic activity. Instead, many represent increased observations, including improved capability to detect low- to mid-level volcanic clouds (FL101–FL200, 3–6 km asl), by higher temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution satellite sensors. Comparison of ESP data extracted from the VAAs with the Mastin et al. (J Volcanol Geotherm Res 186:10–21, 2009a ) database shows that traditional assumptions used in the classification of volcanoes could be much simplified for operational use. The analysis highlights the VAA data as an exceptional resource documenting global volcanic activity on timescales that complement more widely used eruption datasets.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS1997

An adaptive management approach to controlling suburban deer

Distance sight-resight sampling has particular relevance to aerial surveys, in which height above ground and aircraft speed make the critical assumption of certain detection on the track-line unrealistic. Recent developments in distance sight-resight theory have left practical issues related to data collection as the major impediment to widespread use of distance sight-resight sampling in aerial surveys. We describe and evaluate a system to automatically log, store, and process data from distance sight-resight aerial surveys. The system has a primary digital system and a secondary audio system. The digital system comprises a sighting 'gun' and small keypad for each observer, a global positioning system (GPS) receiver, and an altimeter interface, all linked to a central laptop computer. The gun is used to record time and angle of declination from the horizon of sighted groups of animals as they pass the aircraft. The keypad is used to record information on species and group size. The altimeter interface records altitude from the aircraft's radar altimeter, and the GPS receiver provides location data at user-definable intervals. We wrote software to import data into a database and convert it into a form appropriate for distance sight-resight analyses. Perpendicular distance of sighted groups of animals from the flight path is calculated from altitude and angle of declination. Time, angle of declination, species, and group size of sightings by independent observers on the same side of the aircraft are used as criteria to classify single and duplicate sightings, allowing testing of the critical distance sampling assumption (g(0)=1) and estimation of g(0) if that assumption fails. An audio system comprising headphones for each observer and a 4-track tape recorder allows recording of data that are difficult to accommodate in the digital system and provides a backup to the digital system. We evaluated the system by conducting experimental surveys and reviewing results from actual surveys.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2009

Stratigraphy and conodont biostratigraphy of the uppermost Carboniferous and Lower Permian from the North American Midcontinent

Part A The uppermost Wabaunsee, Admire, Council Grove, and lower Chase Groups of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska are placed into three third-order depositional sequences: a Gzhelian late-highstand sequence set, a Council Grove transgressive and highstand sequence set, and a Chase transgressive sequence set. Sequences are defined by bounding maximum-exposure surfaces and are placed within the zone of exposure surfaces (typically, stacked paleosols). Conodonts are abundant in open-marine deposits and most marine units have a differing and characteristic faunal make-up. Eleven species are described as new: Streptognathodus binodosus , S. denticulatus , S. elongianus , S. florensis , S. lineatus , S. nevaensis , S. postconstrictus , S. postelongatus , S. robustus , S. translinearis , and S. trimilus . Part B Maximum-marine flooding levels and marine-condensed sections from uppermost Carboniferous and Lower Permian fourth-order (0.1-1 m.y.) depositional sequences of the North American midcontinent reveal a rich stratigraphic succession of species of Streptognathodus and Sweetognathus conodonts that permits high-precision correlation of the Carboniferous-Permian boundary as well as the Asselian-Sakmarian and Sakmarian-Artinskian boundaries. Eleven new species of Streptognathodus are described: Streptognathodus binodosus , S. denticulatus , S. elongianus , S. florensis , S. lineatus , S. nevaensis , S. postconstrictus , S. postelongatus , S. robustus , S. translinearis , and S. trimilus . Seventeen species are redescribed and clarified and include Streptognathodus alius , S. barskovi , S. bellus , S. brownvillensis , S. conjunctus , S. constrictus , S. elongatus , S. farmeri , S. flexuosus , S. fuchengensis , S. fusus , S. invaginatus , S. isolatus , S. longissimus , S. minacutus , S. nodulinearis , and S. wabaunsensis . The correlated level of the Carboniferous-Permian boundary is recognized in the lower part of the Red Eagle Depositional Sequence based on the introduction of Streptognathodus isolatus Chernykh, Ritter, and Wardlaw; Streptognathodus minacutus Barskov and Reimers; Streptognathodus invaginatus Reshetkova and Chernykh; Streptognathodus fuchengensis Zhao; and Streptognathodus nodulinearis Reshetkova and Chernykh. The correlated Carboniferous-Permian boundary occurs in the depositional sequence that represents the maximum-marine highstand of the Council Grove Composite Third Order Sequence. This level represents a significant marine-flooding event that should be correlatable in numerous shelfal sections throughout the world. Although the Asselian-Sakmarian boundary has not been rigorously defined, Sweetognathus merrilli has been informally utilized as a Sakmarian indicator. Due to the ecologically controlled distribution of species of Sweetognathus , we prefer to use a species of Streptognathodus as a defining species. We propose that Streptognathodus barskovi (Kozur) Reshetkova be considered as a potentially defining or ancillary defining species for the Sakmarian Stage. In the North American midcontinent, Streptognathodus barskovi appears in the same depositional sequence with Sweetognathus merrilli in the Eiss (Lower Bader) Depositional Sequence. Historically, Sweetognathus whitei has been used to mark the Sakmarian-Artinskian boundary. In our succession Sweetognathus whitei and Streptognathodus florensis appear in the basal part of the Barneston Depositional Sequence. We suggest that Streptognathodus florensis be further investigated as a possible defining or ancillary defining taxon for the base of the Artinskian Stage. This depositional sequence also forms the maximum-marine highstand of the Chase Third-Order Composite Depositional Sequence suggesting that this level is a significant marine-flooding event that should be widely traceable in numerous shelfal sections.

Kansas;Nebraska;Oklahoma↗
USGS2019

Applying spatially explicit capture–recapture models to estimate black bear density in South Carolina

Population density is an important component of wildlife management decisions, but can be difficult to estimate directly for an itinerant, wide‐ranging species such as the American black bear ( Ursus americanus ). In South Carolina, USA, where there has been growth in black bear populations and bear–human‐conflict reports during the past several decades, managers need robust estimates of population size to inform management strategies. We used maximum‐likelihood capture–recapture models, using hair snares to collect DNA samples, to estimate density and abundance for a harvested population of black bear in northwestern South Carolina during 2013 to 2014. Models were tested in a spatially explicit framework using the secr package in Program R. Black bear density was estimated at 0.133 bears/km 2 (SE = 0.034) in 2013 and 0.179 bears/km 2 (SE = 0.043) in 2014. Black bear abundance in our study area was estimated to be 586 bears (SE = 95) in 2013 and 680 bears (SE = 128) in 2014, which are 2–3‐fold lower than previous estimates. We suggest that these estimates be considered a baseline for state biologists to employ in the population's management and in developing future harvest‐regulation strategies. Overall our study highlighted the potential for model choice to influence density estimates, and we concluded that spatially explicit models were appropriate for this study because geographic closure could not be assumed.

south Carolina↗
USGS2019

FLUXNET-CH4 synthesis activity: Objectives, observations, and future directions

This paper describes the formation of, and initial results for, a new FLUXNET coordination network for ecosystem-scale methane (CH 4 ) measurements at 60 sites globally, organized by the Global Carbon Project in partnership with other initiatives and regional flux tower networks. The objectives of the effort are presented along with an overview of the coverage of eddy covariance (EC) CH 4 flux measurements globally, initial results comparing CH 4 fluxes across the sites, and future research directions and needs. Annual estimates of net CH 4 fluxes across sites ranged from −0.2 ± 0.02 g C m –2 yr –1 for an upland forest site to 114.9 ± 13.4 g C m –2 yr –1 for an estuarine freshwater marsh, with fluxes exceeding 40 g C m –2 yr –1 at multiple sites. Average annual soil and air temperatures were found to be the strongest predictor of annual CH 4 flux across wetland sites globally. Water table position was positively correlated with annual CH 4 emissions, although only for wetland sites that were not consistently inundated throughout the year. The ratio of annual CH 4 fluxes to ecosystem respiration increased significantly with mean site temperature. Uncertainties in annual CH 4 estimates due to gap-filling and random errors were on average ±1.6 g C m –2 yr –1 at 95% confidence, with the relative error decreasing exponentially with increasing flux magnitude across sites. Through the analysis and synthesis of a growing EC CH 4 flux database, the controls on ecosystem CH 4 fluxes can be better understood, used to inform and validate Earth system models, and reconcile differences between land surface model- and atmospheric-based estimates of CH 4 emissions.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗
USGS2000

A time-dependent probabilistic seismic-hazard model for California

For the purpose of sensitivity testing and illuminating nonconsensus components of time-dependent models, the California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) has assembled a time-dependent version of its statewide probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) model for California. The model incorporates available consensus information from within the earth-science community, except for a few faults or fault segments where consensus information is not available. For these latter faults, published information has been incorporated into the model. As in the 1996 CDMG/U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) model, the time-dependent models incorporate three multisegment ruptures: a 1906, an 1857, and a southern San Andreas earthquake. Sensitivity tests are presented to show the effect on hazard and expected damage estimates of (1) intrinsic (aleatory) sigma, (2) multisegment (cascade) vs. independent segment (no cascade) ruptures, and (3) time-dependence vs. time-independence. Results indicate that (1) differences in hazard and expected damage estimates between time-dependent and independent models increase with decreasing intrinsic sigma, (2) differences in hazard and expected damage estimates between full cascading and not cascading are insensitive to intrinsic sigma, (3) differences in hazard increase with increasing return period (decreasing probability of occurrence), and (4) differences in moment-rate budgets increase with decreasing intrinsic sigma and with the degree of cascading, but are within the expected uncertainty in PSH time-dependent modeling and do not always significantly affect hazard and expected damage estimates.

California↗