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Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Composites

The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) is a broad-band scanner with four to six bands, depending on the model. The AVHRR senses in the visible, near-, middle-, and thermal- infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. This sensor is carried on a series of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES), beginning with the Television InfraRed Observation Satellite (TIROS-N) in 1978. Since 1989, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) has been mapping the vegetation condition of the United States and Alaska using satellite information from the AVHRR sensor. The vegetation condition composites, more commonly called greenness maps, are produced every week using the latest information on the growth and condition of the vegetation. One of the most important aspects of USGS greenness mapping is the historical archive of information dating back to 1989. This historical stretch of information has allowed the USGS to determine a 'normal' vegetation condition. As a result, it is possible to compare the current week's vegetation condition with normal vegetation conditions. An above normal condition could indicate wetter or warmer than normal conditions, while a below normal condition could indicate colder or dryer than normal conditions. The interpretation of departure from normal will depend on the season and geography of a region.

Fact Sheet↗

Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation-management strategies in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park

Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant-species habitats will change over the next century in order to manage these resources effectively. This issue is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO), where currently managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs) for important plant species and communities may no longer provide suitable habitats in the future as the climate changes. Expanding invasive-species distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate. The objective of this project was to combine recent climate-modeling efforts for the state of Hawai‘i with existing models of plant-species distribution in order to forecast suitable habitat ranges under future climate conditions derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3) global circulation model that was dynamically downscaled for the Hawaiian Islands by using the Hawai‘i Regional Climate Model (HRCM). The HRCM uses the A1B emission scenario (a median future climate projection) from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). On the basis of this model, maps showing projected plant-species ranges were generated for four years as snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, 2090) and for three different trajectories of climate change (gradual, linear, rapid) between the present and future. We mapped probabilistic surfaces of suitable habitat for 39 plant species (both native and alien [nonnative]) identified as being of interest to HAVO resource managers. We displayed these surfaces in terms of change relative to present conditions, whether the range of a given plant species was expected to contract, expand, or remain the same in the future. Within HAVO, approximately two-thirds (18 of 29) of the modeled native plant species were projected to contract in range, whereas one-third (11 of 29) were projected to increase. Most of the HAVO SEAs were projected to lose most of the native plant species modeled. Within HAVO, all alien plant species except Lantana camara were projected to contract in range within the park; this trend was observed in most SEAs, including those at low, middle, and high elevations. Congruence was good in the “current” (2000) distribution of plant-species richness and SEA configurations; however, the congruence between species-richness hotspots and SEAs diminished by the projected “end-of-century” (2090) distribution. Over time, the projected species-richness hotspots increasingly occurred outside of the currently configured SEA boundaries.

Hawai'i↗

Demography and natural history of the common fruit bat, Artibeus jamaicensis, on Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Bats were marked and monitored on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to study seasonal and annual variation in distribution, abundance, and natural history from 1975 through 1980. Data gathered advances our knowledge about flocking; abundance; feeding strategies; social behavior; species richness; population structure and stability; age and sex ratios; life expectancy and longevity; nightly, seasonal, and annual movements; synchrony within and between species in reproductive activity; timing of reproductive cycles; survival and dispersal of recruits; intra-and inter-specific relationships; and day and night roost selection. Barro Colorado Island (BCI) harbors large populations of bats that feed on the fruit of canopy trees, especially figs. These trees are abundant, and the individual asynchrony of their fruiting rhythms results in a fairly uniform abundance of fruit. When figs are scarce, a variety of other fruits is available to replace them. This relatively dependable food supply attracts a remarkably rich guild of bats. Although we marked all bats caught, we tried to maximize the number of Artibeus jamaicensis netted, because it is abundant (2/3 of the total catch of bats on BCI), easily captured by conventional means (mist nets set at ground level), and responds well to handling and marking. An average Artibeus jamaicensis is a 45 g frugivore that eats roughly its weight in fruit every night. These bats prefer figs and often seek them out even when other types of fruit they might eat are far more abundant. They commute several hundred meters to feeding trees on the average, feeding on fruit from one to four trees each night, and returning to a single fruiting tree an average of four nights in succession. The bats tend to fly farther when fewer fig trees are bearing ripe fruit, and they feed from fewer trees, on the average, when the moon is nearly full. These bats, like their congeners, do not feed in the fruiting tree itself. Instead, they select a fruit and carry it to a feeding roost typically about 100 m away before eating it. We utilized radio telemetry to assess feeding rates from the number of ?feeding passes??transits between fruit tree and feeding roost. Bats are often netted while carrying fruit, revealing their diet. Feces also reveal dietary information. Adult female A. jamaicensis live in harems of three to 30 individuals with a single adult male. On BCI the harem groups roost during the day in hollow trees. There is presumably a large population of surplus males that roost together with nonadults of both sexes in foliage. Females commute an average of 600 m from their day roosts to feeding sites, and harem males travel less than 300 m. Twice a year most females give birth to a single young, once in March or April, and again in July or August; active gestation averages about 19 weeks. Juveniles are first netted when they are about ten weeks old, and females usually first bear young in March or April following their year of birth.

Smithsonian Contributions to Zoology↗

Reservoir evolution, downstream sediment transport, downstream channel change, and synthesis of geomorphic responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to water years 2012–18 streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake, Oregon

Executive Summary Chapter A. Introduction Fall Creek Dam impounds Fall Creek Lake, a 10-kilometer-long reservoir in western Oregon and is operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) primarily for flood-risk management (or flood control) in late autumn through early spring months, as well as for water quality, irrigation, recreation, and habitat in late spring through early autumn. Since 2011 (water year [WY] 2012), Fall Creek Lake has been temporarily drawn down each year to facilitate downstream passage of juvenile spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) through the 55-meter (m) high dam. This annual dam operation is temporary, typically lasting about 1–2 weeks from WY 2012 through 2020 (drawdown operations in WY 2022–24 have increased to more than 6 weeks). Drawdown of the reservoir results in lake levels being lowered to the elevation near the historical, pre-dam streambed. The annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18 have improved fish passage and led the USACE to formally adopt streambed drawdowns as part of annual operations at Fall Creek Dam. However, temporarily lowering the lake to streambed creates free-flowing conditions in the reservoir that result in the erosion and episodic export of predominantly sand and finer-grained sediments (less than 2 millimeters [mm]) to the lower gravel-bed reaches of Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The introduction of large volumes of sand and finer-grain sediment into the dam-regulated reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam prompted questions about the geomorphic responses to annual streambed drawdowns within Fall Creek Lake and downstream reaches along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with USACE initiated a comprehensive geomorphic and sediment transport investigation to assess the coupled processes of reservoir erosion, sediment evacuation from Fall Creek Lake, and patterns of sediment transport and deposition in reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam that have resulted from annual streambed drawdowns. The purpose of this report is to systematically describe the processes of sediment erosion, transport, and deposition at Fall Creek Lake and geomorphic interactions between reaches upstream and downstream from Fall Creek Dam that relate to dam operations. Specifically, this report focuses on evaluating geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 through 2018 and placing drawdown-induced geomorphic responses within the broader context of physiographic and historical conditions and dam operations of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette Rivers. Key objectives for this study were to characterize changes in reservoir morphology and substrate at Fall Creek Lake, describe the character and temporal pattern of sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam, characterize geomorphic changes in channel reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam, and relate these data to the annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18. This study uses multiple independent monitoring and measurement approaches to assess site, reach, and river-scale geomorphic responses to drawdowns to inform dam and reservoir management. Patterns and processes of reservoir evolution were assessed with geomorphic mapping and volumetric analyses of topography through comparison of multiple digital surface models (DSMs). Just downstream from Fall Creek Dam, analyses of sediment export from the reservoir focused on suspended sediment but also incorporated bedload analyses to assess sediment sizes. Geomorphic assessments downstream from the dam used reach-scale and site-scale approaches to document changes in channel morphology and substrate, including site measurements of sand and finer-grained sediment deposition and in-channel bed-material, volumetric change analyses from comparison of digital elevation models (DEMs), and repeat geomorphic mapping. Findings from this study inform river management and dam operations by providing an understanding of (1) coupled upstream-downstream geomorphic responses to the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns, (2) geomorphic responses of Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns in comparison to drawdowns at other large dams, (3) controls on reservoir erosion and downstream geomorphic responses, and (4) implications for future hydrogeomorphic changes that may result from continued drawdowns and monitoring activities to assess those changes. Chapter B. Reservoir Morphology and Evolution Related to Dam Operations at Fall Creek Lake To understand the volume and distribution of sediment accumulation in Fall Creek Lake since dam closure in 1965, decadal-scale sedimentation patterns (spanning approximately 1965–2016) are evaluated using a combination of storage curve analyses and geomorphic mapping. Short-term (drawdown event-scale) patterns of erosion, sedimentation, and sediment export downstream are evaluated using a combination of geomorphic mapping and change detection analyses that quantify the distribution and total volume of sediment erosion and deposition within Fall Creek Lake. Geomorphic mapping of reservoir topography and analyses of historical datasets reveals four categories of landforms and sediment processes within Fall Creek Lake related to lake level operations: lacustrine sedimentation expressed in the reservoir floor, fluvial erosion and deposition within historical stream channels during streambed drawdowns, channel-like features created by erosion within the reservoir floor during streambed drawdowns, and erosion on reservoir hillslopes. Where the reservoir floor is mapped for this study as pelagic (deep water), deposition up to 3 meters (m) thick by lacustrine processes and burial of pre-dam topography with deposits thinning toward the edges of the valley floor and upstream areas of reservoir are observed. Despite over 50 years of sediment accumulation since dam construction, the main stream channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks (or reservoir thalwegs) through the reservoir are well defined, though their distinct morphology is likely influenced by a long history of recurring historical drawdowns to or near streambed since dam construction. Unregulated streamflow and sediment transport through the reservoir primarily are confined to these channels during the streambed drawdown periods. Erosional channel-like features created by drawdowns are carved through underlying, unconsolidated reservoir floor sediments and are most prominent in the lower reservoir below minimum conservation pool (the low pool elevation during winter flood season); sediment generated from the formation of these drawdown channels is more likely to be transported through and out of the reservoir than sediment deposits along the reservoir hillslopes at the valley margins that are separated from main channels by areas of low-gradient reservoir floor. Morphologic changes in the lower reservoir topography between January 2012 and November 2016 indicate overall net erosion of about 129,500 cubic meters (m 3 ). The most prominent geomorphic changes occurred along the main channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks near the Fall Creek Dam where incision, lateral migration, and slumping banks resulted in vertical and lateral adjustments to channel position, whereas most changes fell below the detectable limit on higher-elevation reservoir floor surfaces except where erosion occurred along features mapped as drawdown channels. Chapter C. Sediment Delivery from Fall Creek Lake and Transport through Downstream Reaches USGS implemented a sediment monitoring program in WY 2013–18 to evaluate the quantity and character of reservoir sediment exported from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns. Turbidity and suspended sediments were monitored annually autumn through spring to span the WY 2013–18 streambed drawdowns; however, unequal monitoring timeframes each year reduced the ability to compare results and factors affecting sediment export from the reservoir difficult between years. These data were originally measured to develop regressions and compute suspended-sediment loads (SSL). Bedload sediment monitoring from a cableway at the Fall Creek streamgage was completed in the autumn-winter of WY 2013 and 2017. The limited number of samples and presumed variability in sediment supply from the reservoir precluded construction of streamflow and bedload discharge relations to compute more than instantaneous bedload. Sand and finer-grained silts and clays were transported from the reservoir in suspension, though some coarser grains (up to 32 mm) were also mobilized and transported downstream from the dam as bedload. Observations of increased sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam coincided with lake levels approaching about 3 m (10 feet [ft] or elevation 690 ft) above the streambed regulating outlets. Suspended-sediment loads computed for the full monitoring periods WY 2013–18 at the Fall Creek streamgage, located 1.4 kilometers (km) downstream from Fall Creek Dam, range from 54,700 metric tons (t) in WY 2013 to 13,900 t in WY 2018. Although the total annual SSL varied from year to year, the overall seasonal patterns of suspended sediment transport throughout each year were similar during monitoring in WY 2013-18. Suspended-sediment loads were low prior to the drawdown, then increased rapidly as lake levels lowered and approached the streambed. In the weeks following the drawdown period, as pool levels were increased, SSL remained slightly elevated above pre-drawdown levels but generally declined through the following winter and spring except during streamflow-driven pulses of suspended-sediment transport. WY 2013 had the greatest total computed SSL for each streambed drawdown and partial-year monitoring period. SSL computed for the partial-year period have generally decreased since WY 2013 and have varied by about 6,800 t with the exception of WY 2014. WY 2014 SSL reflects anomalously low sediment export due to low streamflows and freezing conditions that stabilized reservoir floor deposits. Bedload measurements in the short 1.4-km reach between Fall Creek Dam and the Fall Creek streamgage showed an inverse correlation between bedload transport rates and discharge, which probably reflects diminishing supply of coarse-sized sediment. Sand was more abundant (60–100 percent) than gravel in bedload samples confirming sand and finer-grained sediment dominated sediment evacuated from the reservoir during streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Chapter D. Geomorphic Responses to Fall Creek Lake Streambed Drawdowns Downstream from Fall Creek Dam In the days, weeks, and months following streambed drawdown operations at Fall Creek Dam through WY 2018, sites downstream from the dam displayed a variety of geomorphic responses to reservoir sediment delivery within the main channel and overbank areas. Evaluation of streambed elevations at two streamgages located 1.4 km downstream from the dam on Fall Creek and 16.3 km downstream from the dam on the Middle Fork Willamette River indicated the effects of drawdown sediment on bed elevations were modest and transient. Repeat particle size measurements (October 2015 and September 2016) at five sites along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River showed similar grain-sized distributions that do not reveal substantial deposition of fine-grained sediment related to the WY 2016 streambed drawdown. Altogether, these findings indicate that transport capacity in the main, low-flow channels of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River during WY 2012–18 was sufficient to mobilize and evacuate reservoir sediments from streambed drawdowns or other bank material and tributary sources. However, other monitoring for this study indicate low-velocity zones in off-channel areas are prime locations for sand and finer-grain sediment deposition. Patterns of overbank sediment accumulation indicate that the magnitude and timing of overbank deposition on bars and low-elevation floodplain varies with proximity to the dam, geomorphic setting, streamflows, and other factors. Sand and finer-grained reservoir sediments carried as suspended-sediment load in the reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam were deposited in overbank areas as observed with clay-horizon markers during WY 2016–17. Overbank deposition quantified with Geomorphic Change Detection (GCD) software evaluated landform-scale patterns of erosion and deposition using repeat light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys at two sites in the Upper Fall Creek reach and one site in the Jasper reach for 3 years (2012–15) and one site in the Clearwater reach for 6 years (2009–15). Deposition thickness and spatial patterns from the GCD analysis were variable; some sites had dispersed but measurable deposition while at others, deposition was highly localized and exceeded 1 m in depth. Patterns of overbank deposition illustrate interactions among bar morphology, local hydraulics, and suspended-sediment transport dynamics that can create patches of highly localized deposition. The measured deposition at the two Fall Creek GCD sites likely resulted from reservoir sediments released from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns in WY 2016 and 2017 because the limited sediment inputs from bank material (geomorphically laterally stable reach) or tributaries (no significant tributaries) provided few other sediment sources. On the Middle Fork Willamette River, observed patterns of overbank deposition could reflect sediment sourced from upstream tributaries, bank erosion, or Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdown operations. Despite the introduction of several thousand tons of reservoir sediment delivered from the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns to below-dam river corridors, reach-scale mapping of channel features downstream from Fall Creek Dam shows minimal evidence of changes in channel planform or landforms that can be attributed to a drawdowns in WY 2012–16. On Upper Fall Creek reach, widespread increases in gravel bars or other in-channel sediment did not result from the five streambed drawdowns. The main changes attributable to sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake were localized increases in vegetated bar area, particularly on channel margin areas where sand and finer-grain sediment was deposited and rapidly colonized by vegetation. The area of mapped secondary water features decreased between 2005 and 2016, but that may be due to lower discharges depicted in the 2016 aerial photographs and less mapped area of inundation. Primary changes along the Lower Fall Creek reach include a 6.4 percent decrease in area of secondary water features between 2011 and 2016, and a nearly twofold increase in the area of unvegetated bars. Immediately downstream from the Fall Creek confluence, there were negligible changes in the location and areas of vegetated bars and the main wetted channel between 2005 and 2016, and local increases in bar area cannot be attributed solely to deposition of reservoir sediments from Fall Creek Lake because (1) areas along the Middle Fork Willamette River just upstream from the Fall Creek confluence display similar type and magnitude of changes and (2) some of the increases at the confluence area pre-date the drawdowns. The cumulative effect of sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 to 2016 on downstream channel planform and landforms are modest compared to the river-scale transformations and planform changes that occurred in the decades following dam construction. Chapter E. Discussion of Geomorphic Responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to Streambed Drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake Multiple aspects of Fall Creek Dam infrastructure and operations exert first-order controls on the magnitudes of reservoir erosion that occur during the streambed drawdowns and ultimately determine the sediment delivery to downstream reaches. Key aspects of the dam and its operations that are most relevant to assessing geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns include the (1) dam infrastructure, including configuration and size of regulating outlets and their proximity to the streambed which dictates the capacity and competence of the river to deliver sediment to downstream reaches and mode of sediment transport as suspended-sediment load or bedload; (2) frequency of historical drawdowns and long-term, year-round dam operations and lake level management, which partly dictate reservoir morphology and locations and magnitudes of readily erodible materials; (3) dam operations and hydroclimatic conditions during the streambed drawdown (including length of the drawdown and streamflows entering the reservoir), which directly control the timing, duration and magnitude of reservoir erosion and sediment evacuation; and (4) dam operations following the streambed drawdown operation that regulate streamflows (and thereby sediment transport conditions) downstream of Fall Creek Dam which primarily reflect interactions between hydroclimatic conditions and flood control operations. Patterns of sediment erosion and evacuation observed in this study at Fall Creek Lake from WY 2012–18 suggest that reservoir erosion during annual streambed drawdowns may remain similar or decrease in future years assuming (1) annual streambed drawdown operations are implemented in similar manner as the WY 2012–18 drawdowns (in terms of duration, late autumn or early winter implementation, rate of pool-level lowering to reach streambed, and other factors), (2) streambed drawdowns coincide with similar conditions as were observed WY 2012–18 (similar sediment yield into reservoir, low reservoir inflows, limited precipitation, moderate air temperature), and (3) no major geomorphic changes in the main reservoir channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks occur (for example, channel avulsion). Under such conditions, it is hypothesized that the stream channel within the reservoir would achieve a quasi-equilibrium state with respect to annual influx and export of sediment and aided by the substantial amount of in-channel bedrock, will remain laterally stable without erosion across reservoir deposits. Patterns of sediment transport measured at the Fall Creek streamgage downstream from Fall Creek Dam provide insight into the potential effects of future streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Analyses of suspended sediment measured in WY 2013–18 show a major reduction in suspended-sediment loads between WY 2013 and later years, indicating streamflows transporting sediment through the reservoir to downstream reaches during streambed drawdowns have become supply limited. The 6-year suspended-sediment monitoring and sampling program is insufficient to make predictions about future sediment transport conditions because of uneven monitoring periods and varying controls on reservoir sediment erosion. It is likely that future suspended-sediment loads will be variable but similar to those observed in WY 2015–18 if operational, climatic, and geomorphological factors remain similar to those monitored WY 2015–18. Suspended-sediment loads downstream from Fall Creek Lake will likely remain highest when regulating outlets are fully open and Fall Creek is free flowing with the reservoir fully drained with little to no residual pool. Over time, it is possible that the suspended-sediment loads would reflect mobilization of reservoir sediment deposited in the previous year rather than erosion of sediment deposited years or decades earlier. Bedload is likely to remain a small fraction of the total sediment load evacuated from the reservoir and is relatively modest compared with pre-dam bedload transport rates because most coarse sediment remains trapped by the dam. If sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake and ensuing streamflow conditions follow a similar pattern in the future as was assessed in this study spanning WY 2012–18, near-term geomorphic adjustments downstream of the dam are expected to be modest. Barring major operational, climatic, and geomorphological changes, local site-scale deposition on bars, overbank areas, or off-channel features that persists several months after the streambed drawdown will likely continue to be highly variable, ranging from negligible to several centimeters of deposition. At the landform-scale, low velocity areas nearest to Fall Creek Dam will likely continue to undergo rapid deposition immediately during and after a streambed drawdown event, similar to patterns observed for WY 2012–18. Some of the sediment entering these off-channel features and margin areas may be temporarily stored, then later remobilized and dispersed farther downstream. But if newly deposited sediment persists through the following spring, there is a greater likelihood that local vegetation will establish, reinforce deposited material, and trap sediment during later drawdowns. The reach-scale geomorphic changes may become more apparent if (1) streambed drawdowns continued for several decades, and geomorphic changes were measured at decadal scales or (2) the amount of sediment introduced to downstream reaches substantially increased and (or) sediment transport capacity decreased. The continued streamflow regulation of Fall Creek Dam after sediment releases provides an opportunity to strategically manage streamflows during and after the streambed drawdowns to minimize downstream sediment impacts and ensure other operational thresholds are satisfied. This study provides a comprehensive foundation of datasets and geomorphic analyses to inform dam operations at Fall Creek Lake, monitor sediment transport downstream, and consider operational schemes for future drawdowns. The datasets from this study also provide baselines of sediment transport and geomorphic conditions to assess future changes in reservoir and downstream environments. Future monitoring could be tailored to address specific questions regarding the long-term geomorphic effects of streambed drawdowns on fluvial habitats, flood hazards, cultural resources, or downstream water quality. Future monitoring activities could focus on the relevant geomorphic processes and spatial domains within the three categories used for this study: (1) reservoir erosion and net sediment evacuation, (2) sediment delivery to downstream reaches, including magnitude and temporal pattern of sediment transport, and (3) geomorphic responses of downstream reaches to sediment delivery. Specifically, high priority future monitoring activities could include: Repeat topographic or photographic surveys in the reservoir to characterize changes occurring within individual drawdowns, to quantify sediment export, to determine temporal changes in reservoir storage, and to identify locations of erosion and deposition. Continuous, year-round turbidity monitoring supplemented with suspended-sediment measurements at a streamflow-gaging station immediately downstream from the dam to quantify sediment export. Repeat geomorphic monitoring, mapping, or modeling in downstream reaches to track changes in channel and over bank features using a combination of site- and reach-scale monitoring approaches. This could support assessments of sediment deposition and ensuing vegetation encroachment on flood hazards and habitats and examine how sediment transport and depositional processes may be affected by different sediment supply, streamflow, or dam management scenarios.

Oregon↗

Nest survival estimation: A review of alternatives to the Mayfield estimator

Reliable estimates of nest survival are essential for assessing strategies for avian conservation. We review the history of modifications and alternatives for estimating nest survival, with a focus on four techniques: apparent nest success, the Mayfield estimator, the Stanley method, and program MARK. The widely used Mayfield method avoids the known positive bias inherent in apparent nest success by estimating daily survival rates using the number of exposure days, eliminating the need to monitor nests from initiation. Concerns that some of Mayfield's assumptions were restrictive stimulated the development of new techniques. Stanley's method allows for calculation of stage-specific daily survival rates when transition and failure dates are unknown, and eliminates Mayfield's assumption that failure occurred midway through the nest-check interval. Program MARK obviates Mayfield's assumption of constant daily survival within nesting stages and evaluates variation in nest survival as a function of biologically relevant factors. These innovative methods facilitate the evaluation of nest survival using an information-theoretic approach. We illustrate use of these methods with Lark Bunting ( Calamospiza melanocorys ) nest data from the Pawnee National Grassland, Colorado. Nest survival estimates calculated using Mayfield, Stanley, and MARK methods were similar, but apparent nest success estimates ranged 1– 24% greater than the other estimates. MARK analysis revealed that survival of Lark Bunting nests differed between site–year groups, declined with both nest age and time in season, but did not vary with weather parameters. We encourage researchers to use these approaches to gain reliable and meaningful nest survival estimates.

The Condor↗

Range-wide assessment of livestock grazing across the sagebrush biome

Domestic livestock grazing occurs in virtually all sagebrush habitats and is a prominent disturbance factor. By affecting habitat condition and trend, grazing influences the resources required by, and thus, the distribution and abundance of sagebrush-obligate wildlife species (for example, sage-grouse Centrocercus spp.). Yet, the risks that livestock grazing may pose to these species and their habitats are not always clear. Although livestock grazing intensity and associated habitat condition may be known in many places at the local level, we have not yet been able to answer questions about use, condition, and trend at the landscape scale or at the range-wide scale for wildlife species. A great deal of information about grazing use, management regimes, and ecological condition exists at the local level (for individual livestock management units) under the oversight of organizations such as the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). However, the extent, quality, and types of existing data are unknown, which hinders the compilation, mapping, or analysis of these data. Once compiled, these data may be helpful for drawing conclusions about rangeland status, and we may be able to identify relationships between those data and wildlife habitat at the landscape scale. The overall objective of our study was to perform a range-wide assessment of livestock grazing effects (and the relevant supporting data) in sagebrush ecosystems managed by the BLM. Our assessments and analyses focused primarily on local-level management and data collected at the scale of BLM grazing allotments (that is, individual livestock management units). Specific objectives included the following: 1. Identify and refine existing range-wide datasets to be used for analyses of livestock grazing effects on sagebrush ecosystems. 2. Assess the extent, quality, and types of livestock grazing-related natural resource data collected by BLM range-wide (i.e., across allotments, districts and regions). 3. Compile and synthesize recommendations from federal and university rangeland science experts about how BLM might prioritize collection of different types of livestock grazing-related natural resource data. 4. Investigate whether range-wide datasets (Objective 1) could be used in conjunction with remotely sensed imagery to identify across broad scales (a) allotments potentially not meeting BLM Land Health Standards (LHS) and (b) allotments in which unmet standards might be attributable to livestock grazing. Objective 1: We identified four datasets that potentially could be used for analyses of livestock grazing effects on sagebrush ecosystems. First, we obtained the most current spatial data (typically up to 2007, 2008, or 2009) for all BLM allotments and compiled data into a coarse, topologically enforced dataset that delineated grazing allotment boundaries. Second, we obtained LHS evaluation data (as of 2007) for all allotments across all districts and regions; these data included date of most recent evaluation, BLM determinations of whether region-specific standards were met, and whether BLM deemed livestock to have contributed to any unmet standards. Third, we examined grazing records of three types: Actual Use (permittee-reported), Billed Use (BLM-reported), and Permitted Use (legally authorized). Finally, we explored the possibility of using existing Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) Ecological Site Description (ESD) data to make up-to-date estimates of production and forage availability on BLM allotments. Objective 2: We investigated the availability of BLM livestock grazing-related monitoring data and the status of LHS across 310 randomly selected allotments in 13 BLM field offices. We found that, relative to other data types, the most commonly available monitoring data were Actual Use numbers (permittee-reported livestock numbers and season-of-use), followed by Photo Point, forage Utilization, and finally, Vegetation Trend measurement data. Data availability and frequency of data collection varied across allotments and field offices. Analysis of the BLM's LHS data indicated 67 percent of allotments analyzed were meeting standards. For those not meeting standards, livestock were considered the causal factor in 45 percent of cases (about 15 percent of all allotments). Objective 3: We sought input from 42 university and federal rangeland science experts about how best to prioritize rangeland monitoring activities associated with ascertaining livestock impacts on vegetation resources. When we presented a hypothetical scenario to these scientists and asked them to prioritize monitoring activities, the most common response was to measure ground and vegetation cover, a variable that in many cases (10 of 13 field offices sampled) BLM had already identified as a monitoring priority. Experts identified several other traditional (for example, photo points) and emerging approaches (for example, high-resolution aerial photography) to monitoring. Objective 4: We used spatial allotment data (described in Objective 1) and remotely sensed vegetation data (sagebrush cover, herbaceous vegetation cover, litter and bare soil) to assess differences in allotment LHS status ("Not met" vs. "Met"; if "Not met" - livestock-caused vs. not). We then developed logistic regression models, using vegetation variables to predict LHS status of BLM allotments in sagebrush steppe habitats in Wyoming and portions of Montana and Colorado. In general, we found that more consistent data collection at the local level might improve suitability of data for broad-scale analyses of livestock impacts. As is, data collection methodologies varied across field offices and States, and we did not find any local-level monitoring data (Actual Use, Utilization, Vegetation Trend) that had been collected consistently enough over time or space for range-wide analyses. Moreover, continued and improved emphasis on monitoring also may aid local management decisions, particularly with respect to effects of livestock grazing. Rangeland science experts identified ground cover as a high monitoring priority for assessing range condition and emphasized the importance of tracking livestock numbers and grazing dates. Ultimately, the most effective monitoring program may entail both increased data collection effort and the integration of alternative monitoring approaches (for example, remote sensing or monitoring teams). In the course of our study, we identified three additional datasets that could potentially be used for range-wide analyses: spatial allotment boundary data for all BLM allotments range-wide, LHS evaluations of BLM allotments, and livestock use data (livestock numbers and grazing dates). It may be possible to use these spatial datasets to help prioritize monitoring activities over the extensive land areas managed by BLM. We present an example of how we used spatial allotment boundary data and LHS data to test whether remotely sensed vegetation characteristics could be used to predict which allotments met or did not meet LHS. This approach may be further improved by the results of current efforts by BLM to test whether more intensive (higher resolution) LHS assessments more accurately describe land health status. Standardized data collection in more ecologically meaningful land units may improve our ability to use local-level data for broad-scale analyses.

Open-File Report↗

Physical habitat simulation system reference manual: version II

There are four major components of a stream system that determine the productivity of the fishery (Karr and Dudley 1978). These are: (1) flow regime, (2) physical habitat structure (channel form, substrate distribution, and riparian vegetation), (3) water quality (including temperature), and (4) energy inputs from the watershed (sediments, nutrients, and organic matter). The complex interaction of these components determines the primary production, secondary production, and fish population of the stream reach. The basic components and interactions needed to simulate fish populations as a function of management alternatives are illustrated in Figure I.1. The assessment process utilizes a hierarchical and modular approach combined with computer simulation techniques. The modular components represent the "building blocks" for the simulation. The quality of the physical habitat is a function of flow and, therefore, varies in quality and quantity over the range of the flow regime. The conceptual framework of the Incremental Methodology and guidelines for its application are described in "A Guide to Stream Habitat Analysis Using the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology" (Bovee 1982). Simulation of physical habitat is accomplished using the physical structure of the stream and streamflow. The modification of physical habitat by temperature and water quality is analyzed separately from physical habitat simulation. Temperature in a stream varies with the seasons, local meteorological conditions, stream network configuration, and the flow regime; thus, the temperature influences on habitat must be analysed on a stream system basis. Water quality under natural conditions is strongly influenced by climate and the geological materials, with the result that there is considerable natural variation in water quality. When we add the activities of man, the possible range of water quality possibilities becomes rather large. Consequently, water quality must also be analysed on a stream system basis. Such analysis is outside the scope of this manual, which concentrates on simulation of physical habitat based on depth, velocity, and a channel index. The results form PHABSIM can be used alone or by using a series of habitat time series programs that have been developed to generate monthly or daily habitat time series from the Weighted Usable Area versus streamflow table resulting from the habitat simulation programs and streamflow time series data. Monthly and daily streamflow time series may be obtained from USGS gages near the study site or as the output of river system management models.

Report↗

A Tour de Force by Hawaii's invasive mammals: establishment, takeover, ecosystem restoration through eradication

Invasive mammals, large and small, have irreversibly altered Hawaii's ecosystems in numerous cases through unnatural herbivory, predation, and the transmission of zoonotic diseases, thereby causing the disproportionate extinction of flora and fauna that occur nowhere else on Earth. The control and eradication of invasive mammals is the single most expensive management activity necessary for restoring ecological integrity to many natural areas of Hawai'i and other Pacific Islands, and has already advanced the restoration of native biota. Science applications supporting management efforts have been shaped by longstanding collaborative federal research programs over the past four decades. Consequently, feral goats have been removed from > l ,3 58 km2, and feral pigs have been removed from >723 km2 of lands in Hawai'i, bringing about the gradual recovery of forest ecosystems. The exclusion of other non-native ungulates and invasive mammals is now being undertaken with more sophisticated control techniques and fences. New fence designs are now capable of excluding feral cats from large areas to protect endangered native waterfowl and nesting seabirds. Rodenticides that have been tested and registered for hand and aerial broadcast in Hawai'i have been used to eradicate rats from small offshore islands to protect nesting seabirds and are now being applied to montane environment of larger islands to protect forest birds. Forward-looking infrared radar is also being applied to locate cryptic wild ungulates that were more recently introduced to some islands. All invasive mammals have been eradicated from some smaller islands, resulting in the restoration of some ecosystem processes such as natural forest regeneration, but changes in other processes such as fire regimes and nutrient cycling remain more difficult to reverse at larger landscape scales. It may soon be possible to manage areas on larger islands to be free of invasive mammals at least during seasonally important periods for native species, but at the same time, new mammal introductions continue to occur.

Hawaii↗

Response of vegetation in open and partially wooded fens to prescribed burning at Seney National Wildlife Refuge

The health and function of northern peatlands, particularly for fens, are strongly affected by fire and hydrology. Fens are important to several avian species of conservation interest, notably the yellow rail ( Coturnicops noveboracensis ). Fire suppression and altered hydrology often result in woody encroachment, altering the plant community and structure. Woody encroachment and its effects on biodiversity have become an increasing concern in the conservation and management of plant communities. This study evaluated the effects of spring and summer prescribed burns on the plant community, cover, and structure in open and partially wooded fens at Seney National Wildlife Refuge, Michigan, using a before-after-control-impact design. Paired, 1-hectare blocks were established in two fen areas, C3 and Marsh Creek, and data were collected for 2 years before burning (2006–7) and 3 years after burning (2008–10). We used generalized linear mixed models and ordination to assess differences among four treatments: C3 control, C3 spring burn (May 2008), Marsh Creek control, and Marsh Creek summer burn (July 2008); results from a block burned under drier conditions in July 2007 also are reported. Variables include water depth; litter depth; graminoid height; species richness and diversity; percent cover of plant taxa, mosses, and open area; shrub height, number of patches, and cover; and visual obstruction readings. The 2008 prescribed burns were done under moderate fire conditions, whereas the 2007 summer burn on one block was done under high fire conditions because of prolonged drought. We identified 104 plant taxa over the 5 years and noted differences between C3 and Marsh Creek communities. We examined data for effects of treatment, year, and year × treatment interactions for percent open and the 28 most common taxa. Most differences among treatments were related to natural differences in the plant community and hydrology between the two areas rather than fire effects; year effects were likely related to annual differences in water conditions. We detected few effects of spring burning in C3, even in the same year of burning. In Marsh Creek, most treatment effects were in 2008, when data were collected within 3 weeks of burning. Some fire effects there, however, persisted one to two growing seasons (2009, 2010) and two to three growing seasons in the block burned in the more intense summer 2007 fire. Effects of burning on shrub measures were more apparent on summer-burned blocks, but most measures returned to preburn conditions by 2010. Our results demonstrate the heterogeneity of plant community and environmental conditions of fens within and among years and the interactions of water conditions with burning. The results also demonstrate that neither single spring nor summer burning under moderate fire conditions are effective in setting back woody cover. Maintaining more open conditions in fens may require different approaches to water management, more frequent fires, more aggressive fire management, or a combination of tools to control woody cover.

Michigan↗

A multi-isotope (δ13C, δ15N, δ34S, δ2H) approach to establishing migratory connectivity in lesser snow geese: Tracking an overabundant species

Expanding populations of North American midcontinent lesser snow geese ( Anser caerulescens caerulescens ) have potential to alter ecosystems throughout the Arctic and subarctic where they breed. Efforts to understand origins of harvested lesser snow geese to better inform management decisions have traditionally required mark-recapture approaches, while aerial photographic surveys have typically been used to identify breeding distributions. As a potential alternative, isotopic patterns that are metabolically fixed within newly grown flight feathers following summer molting could provide inferences regarding geographic breeding origin of individuals, without the need for prior capture. Our objective was to assess potential to use four stable isotopes (δ 13 C, δ 15 N, δ 34 S, δ 2 H) from feather material to determine breeding origins. We obtained newly grown flight feathers from individuals during summer banding at three Arctic and two subarctic breeding colonies in 2014 ( n = 56) and 2016 ( n = 45). We used linear discriminant analyses to predict breeding origins from models using combinations of stable isotopes as predictors and evaluated model accuracy when predicting colony, subregion, or subpopulation levels. We found a strong inverse relationship between δ 2 H values and increasing latitude ( R 2 = 0.83), resulting in differences ( F 4, 51 = 90.41, P < 0.0001) among sampled colonies. No differences in δ 13 C or δ 15 N were detected among colonies, although δ 34 S in Akimiski Island, Baffin Island, and Karrak Lake were more enriched ( F 4, 51 = 11.25, P < 0.0001). Using δ 2 H values as a predictor, discriminant analyses improved accuracy in classification level as precision decreased [model accuracy = 67% (colony), 88% (subregion), 94% (subpopulation)]. Application of the isotopic methods we describe could be used to provide an alternative monitoring method of population metrics, such as overall breeding population distribution, region-specific productivity and migratory connectivity that are informative to management decision makers and provide insight into cross-seasonal effects that may influence migratory behavior.

Baffin Island, Southampton Island↗

A cross comparison of spatiotemporally enhanced springtime phenological measurements from satellites and ground in a northern U.S. mixed forest

Cross comparison of satellite-derived land surface phenology (LSP) and ground measurements is useful to ensure the relevance of detected seasonal vegetation change to the underlying biophysical processes. While standard 16-day and 250-m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation index (VI)-based springtime LSP has been evaluated in previous studies, it remains unclear whether LSP with enhanced temporal and spatial resolutions can capture additional details of ground phenology. In this paper, we compared LSP derived from 500-m daily MODIS and 30-m MODIS-Landsat fused VI data with landscape phenology (LP) in a northern U.S. mixed forest. LP was previously developed from intensively observed deciduous and coniferous tree phenology using an upscaling approach. Results showed that daily MODIS-based LSP consistently estimated greenup onset dates at the study area (625 m × 625 m) level with 4.48 days of mean absolute error (MAE), slightly better than that of using 16-day standard VI (4.63 days MAE). For the observed study areas, the time series with increased number of observations confirmed that post-bud burst deciduous tree phenology contributes the most to vegetation reflectance change. Moreover, fused VI time series demonstrated closer correspondences with LP at the community level (0.1-20 ha) than using MODIS alone at the study area level (390 ha). The fused LSP captured greenup onset dates for respective forest communities of varied sizes and compositions with four days of the overall MAE. This study supports further use of spatiotemporally enhanced LSP for more precise phenological monitoring.

Wisconsin↗

Effect of antecedent-hydrological conditions on rainfall triggering of debris flows in ash-fall pyroclastic mantled slopes of Campania (southern Italy)

Mountainous areas surrounding the Campanian Plain and the Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy) are among the most risky areas of Italy due to the repeated occurrence of rainfallinduced debris flows along ash-fall pyroclastic soil-mantled slopes. In this geomorphological framework, rainfall patterns, hydrological processes taking place within multi-layered ash-fall pyroclastic deposits and soil antecedent moisture status are the principal factors to be taken into account to assess triggering rainfall conditions and the related hazard. This paper presents the outcomes of an experimental study based on integrated analyses consisting of the reconstruction of physical models of landslides, in situ hydrological monitoring, and hydrological and slope stability modeling, carried out on four representative source areas of debris flows that occurred in May 1998 in the Sarno Mountain Range. The hydrological monitoring was carried out during 2011 using nests of tensiometers and Watermark pressure head sensors and also through a rainfall and air temperature recording station. Time series of measured pressure head were used to calibrate a hydrological numerical model of the pyroclastic soil mantle for 2011, which was re-run for a 12-year period beginning in 2000, given the availability of rainfall and air temperature monitoring data. Such an approach allowed us to reconstruct the regime of pressure head at a daily time scale for a long period, which is representative of about 11 hydrologic years with different meteorological conditions. Based on this simulated time series, average winter and summer hydrological conditions were chosen to carry out hydrological and stability modeling of sample slopes and to identify Intensity- Duration rainfall thresholds by a deterministic approach. Among principal results, the opposing winter and summer antecedent pressure head (soil moisture) conditions were found to exert a significant control on intensity and duration of rainfall triggering events. Going from winter to summer conditions requires a strong increase of intensity and/or duration to induce landslides. The results identify an approach to account for different hazard conditions related to seasonality of hydrological processes inside the ash-fall pyroclastic soil mantle. Moreover, they highlight another important factor of uncertainty that potentially affects rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides reconstructed by empirical approaches.

Campania↗

Assessment of impacts of proposed coal-resource and related economic development on water resources, Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming: A summary

Expanded mining and use of coal resources in the Rocky Mountain region of the western United States will have substantial impacts on water resources, environmental amenities, and social and economic conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey has completed a 3-year assessment of the Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming, where increased coal-resource development has begun to affect the environment and quality of life. Economic projections of the overall effects of coal-resource development were used to estimate water use and the types and amounts of waste residuals that need to be assimilated into the environment. Based in part upon these projections, several physical-based models and other semiquantitative assessment methods were used to determine possible effects upon the basin's water resources. Depending on the magnitude of mining and use of coal resources in the basin, an estimated 0.7 to 2.7 million tons (0.6 to 2.4 million metric tons) of waste residuals may be discharged annually into the environment by coal-resource development and associated economic activities. If the assumed development of coal resources in the basin occurs, annual consumptive use of water, which was approximately 142,000 acre-feet (175 million cubic meters) during 1975, may almost double by 1990. In a related analysis of alternative cooling systems for coal-conversion facilities, four to five times as much water may be used consumptively in a wet-tower, cooling-pond recycling system as in once-through cooling. An equivalent amount of coal transported by slurry pipeline would require about one-third the water used consumptively by once-through cooling for in-basin conversion. Current conditions and a variety of possible changes in the water resources of the basin resulting from coal-resource development were assessed. Basin population may increase by as much as threefold between 1975 and 1990. Volumes of wastes requiring treatment will increase accordingly. Potential problems associated with ammonia-nitrogen concentrations in the Yampa River downstream from Steamboat Springs were evaluated using a waste-load assimilative-capacity model. Changes in sediment loads carried by streams due to increased coal mining and construction of roads and buildings may be apparent only locally; projected increases in sediment loads relative to historic loads from the basin are estimated to be 2 to 7 percent. Solid-waste residuals generated by coal-conversion processes and disposed of into old mine pits may cause widely dispersed ground-water contamination, based on simulation-modeling results. Projected increases in year-round water use will probably result in the construction of several proposed reservoirs. Current seasonal patterns of streamflow and of dissolvedsolids concentrations in streamflow will be altered appreciably by these reservoirs. Decreases in time-weighted mean-annual dissolved-solids concentrations of as much as 34 percent are anticipated, based upon model simulations of several configurations of proposed reservoirs. Detailed statistical analyses of water-quality conditions in the Yampa River basin were made. Regionalized maximum waterquality concentrations were estimated for possible comparison with future conditions. Using Landsat imagery and aerial photographs, potential remote-sensing applications were evaluated to monitor land-use changes and to assess both snow cover and turbidity levels in streams. The technical information provided by the several studies of the Yampa River basin assessment should be useful to regional planners and resource managers in evaluating the possible impacts of development on the basin's water resources.

Colorado, Wyoming↗

Water resources of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, Oregon

Water resources of the Umatilla Indian Reservation are poorly distributed both geographically and in time. On the reservation, only the Umatilla River and one of its principal tributaries, Meacham Creek, have significant perennial flows. Runoff of the principal streams is largely from snowmelt in the Blue Mountains and is highly variable. The principal aquifers are the Columbia River Basalt Group and the Quaternary alluvium. The basalt underlies the entire reservation to a depth of a few thousand feet, and most wells tap this source. The Quaternary alluvium is present only in the valleys of the principal streams. The alluvium averages about 12 feet (ft) in thickness in the Umatilla River valley, where it has the greatest extent; elsewhere it is generally thinner. Surface-water outflow from the reservation averages about 600 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s), and the total stream inflow is about 540 ft 3 /s. About 480 ft 3 /s of the outflow is in the Umatilla River, 106 ft 3 /s is in McKay Creek, and 14 ft 3 /s is in other streams. Dependable streamflow, defined here as the 7-day mean low flow that will occur once every 50 years, on the average, is 30 ft 3 /s in Umatilla River above Meacham Creek near Gibbon, 5 ft 3 /s in Meacham Creek below Line Creek at the east boundary, 33 ft 3 /s in Umatilla River at Cayuse, and 14 ft 3 /s in Umatilla River at Pendleton. Monthly mean flows in Umatilla River above Meacham Creek near Gibbon in summer and fall frequently are less than the published recommended minimum flows for spawning and rearing of trout; in the reach of the Umatilla River near Pendleton the summer and fall flows generally are below those recommended minimum flows. Wells in the Columbia River Basalt Group range in depth from a few to 1,910 ft, and their yields range from less than 1 to more than 1,200 gallons per minute (gal/min). Small yields adequate for domestic needs can generally be obtained from the basalt. The depths required for successful wells may be extremely variable. Evaluation of specific-capacity data from wells in the basalt in four geographic areas suggests that the basalt is more permeable beneath the south reservation and the Umatilla River valley, that the permeability decreases on the north reservation, and that it is least in the Blue Mountains. Surface and ground waters generally are of good quality and suitable for most uses. Surface water is soft and generally contains less than 120 milligrams per liter (ug/L) of dissolved solids. Dissolved oxygen in streams is generally at or close to saturation levels at most stream temperatures and discharge rates. Ground water ranges from soft to very hard (28 to 280 mg/L), but it generally ranges between moderately hard to hard (61 to 180 mg/L). Dissolved solids in ground water range from 88 to 561 mg/L, but generally are between 200 and about 250 mg/L. During 1975, an estimated 11 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of surface and ground water was withdrawn from the reservation for all uses. About 4 Mgal/d was from surface-water sources and 60 percent, or 7 Mgal/d, was from ground-water sources. About 7.2 Mgal/d was used for irrigation, 3.6 Mgal/d for public supply, and the remainder was for domestic and industrial use. About 4 Mgal/d, or 40 percent of the total water withdrawn, was for public supply and for irrigation use outside the reservation boundaries. Local seasonal declines of ground-water levels of 100 ft or more occur in shallow basalt wells in the Umatilla River valley between Mission and the west boundary. The declines are due chiefly to pumping from many small-capacity shallow wells in the basalt for irrigation of lawns and small acreages of pasture or hay. Future potential problems on the reservation include regional decline of ground-water levels in the basalt aquifer and local contamination of surface and ground water from accidental spills of deleterious substances.

Oregon↗

Mountain Lions of the Flagstaff Uplands: 2003-2006 Progress Report

Executive Summary Stakeholders in management of mountain lions in the Flagstaff Uplands of northern Arizona have expressed increasing concern about both potential impacts of humans on lions and potential risks posed by lions to humans. A series of human-mountain lion encounters during 2000-2001 on Mt. Elden, immediately adjacent to Flagstaff, and similar incidents during 2004 near Tucson brought increased attention to management of human safety in mountain lion range. These human-centered concerns, together with long-standing questions about how the human infrastructure centered on Flagstaff might be affecting lion movements led us to initiate a mountain lion study in 2003 which we plan to continue through 2009. Our study focuses on movements and other behaviors of mountain lions, with the goal of providing information that can be used to increase human safety, decrease human impacts, and, overall, provide insight into the ecology of lions in this region. To serve this goal, we have focused on collecting data that will be the basis of explanatory models that can provide spatially-explicit predictions of mountain lion activity, specify the effects of human facilities, such as highways and urban areas, and provide insight into when, where, and how often different kinds of lions kill different kinds of prey. During 2003-2006, we captured six female and five male mountain lions in the Flagstaff Uplands, 10 of which we fitted with collars that collected up to six high-precision GPS fixes per day, transmitted daily to our offices via Argos satellites. This timely delivery of data allowed us to visit kill sites and other foci of localized activity to collect detailed information on lion behavior. By June 2006 we had obtained 9357 GPS locations and visited 394 sites, at which we documented 218 kills, 165 of which were by five females and 53 by five males. These data were the basis for preliminary analyses presented in this report. All lions during all seasons exhibited a strong selection for rough terrain and forest or woodland cover. Females differed from males by selecting more strongly for intermediate, rather than extreme, levels of terrain roughness, by selecting more strongly for chaparral vegetation and related rocky areas during winter, and by not selecting as strongly for areas near water sources. Overall, lions collared during this study strongly avoided flat open areas in private ownership. Male but not female lions exhibited pronounced selection for National Park Service jurisdictions. Both males and females year-round avoided residential areas and a zone outward to about 1-3 km and, when within this zone, moved more slowly and with less change in direction compared to when farther away. Collared lions have so far rarely crossed paved highways of any description - orders of magnitude less often than expected by chance. We observed only 3 crossings of an interstate highway, all on I17 and none on I40. Elk comprised the majority (52%) of kills by lions in our study, followed by mule deer (46%), and small mammals (15%). Adults comprised most of the mule deer kills (68%) and mesocarnivores, primarily coyotes (n = 21), comprised 73% of smaller prey. Calf and short-yearling elk comprised the largest single category of kills (29%). In addition to kills, we documented seven instances of scavenging, involving four different lions. Females differed from males by killing more mule deer and virtually all of the mesocarnivores, and by killing fewer elk of all ages. Intervals between kills averaged between 144 hrs (young females) to 221 hours (adult females), whereas average time spent on a kill ranged from 19 hrs (adult males) to 40 hrs (young males). Carcass mass had a strong effect on likelihood that a lion would bury or relocate a kill, the percentage of edibles consumed, and overall time spent feeding. Time spent feeding and likelihoods of carcass burial and relocation all peaked at intermediate carcass masses, suggesting an optimal mass in the range of 50-150 kg, likely dictated as much by handling efficiencies and competition from other scavengers as by a lion's shear ability to kill prey. Adult male lions exhibited a life strategy distinctly different from all other sex-age classes that entailed moving more rapidly over larger areas, and spending less time on kills in which they invested less energy handling, but from which they consumed tissue at a higher sustained rate.

Open-File Report↗

Landsat classification of surface-water presence during multiple years to assess response of playa wetlands to climatic variability across the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

To improve understanding of the distribution of ecologically important, ephemeral wetland habitats across the Great Plains, the occurrence and distribution of surface water in playa wetland complexes were documented for four different years across the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GPLCC) region. This information is important because it informs land and wildlife managers about the timing and location of habitat availability. Data with an accurate timestamp that indicate the presence of water, the percent of the area inundated with water, and the spatial distribution of playa wetlands with water are needed for a host of resource inventory, monitoring, and research applications. For example, the distribution of inundated wetlands forms the spatial pattern of available habitat for resident shorebirds and water birds, stop-over habitats for migratory birds, connectivity and clustering of wetland habitats, and surface waters that recharge the Ogallala aquifer; there is considerable variability in the distribution of playa wetlands holding water through time. Documentation of these spatially and temporally intricate processes, here, provides data required to assess connections between inundation and multiple environmental drivers, such as climate, land use, soil, and topography. Climate drivers are understood to interact with land cover, land use and soil attributes in determining the amount of water that flows overland into playa wetlands. Results indicated significant spatial variability represented by differences in the percent of playas inundated among States within the GPLCC. Further, analysis-of-variance comparison of differences in inundation between years showed significant differences in all cases. Although some connections with seasonal moisture patterns may be observed, the complex spatial-temporal gradients of precipitation, temperature, soils, and land use need to be combined as covariates in multivariate models to effectively account for these patterns. We demonstrate the feasibility of using classification of Landsat satellite imagery to describe playa-wetland inundation across years and seasons. Evaluating classifications representing only 4 years of imagery, we found significant year-to-year and state-to-state differences in inundation rates.

Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative↗

Growth of the rock bass, Ambloplites rupestris (Rafinesque), in five lakes of northeastern Wisconsin

The forms of the growth curves of rock bass from four lakes in northeastern Wisconsin with medium-hard to hard water bore a general resemblance to each other, but differed sharply from the curve for rock bass from a lake with extremely soft water. With the exception of a slight increase in growth in the third year of life the annual increments of length of the rock bass of Nebish Lake (4.0 p.p.m. of bound CO 2 ) tended to decrease consistently beyond the first year. The good first-year growth in length of rock bass of Allequash, Silver, and Trout Lakes (16.8, 15.0, and 18.7 p.p.m., respectively, of bound CO 2 ) was followed by poor growth in the second, third, and fourth years of life. This poor growth was followed in turn by good growth in the fifth and sixth years. The annual increments of length tended to decline beyond the sixth year of life. The growth of rock bass of Muskellunge Lake (10.0 p.p.m. of bound CO 2 ) declined sharply in the second year of life. The annual increments of length were fairly constant in the second to seventh years, inclusive, but declined beyond the seventh year. In each lake the males grew more rapidly than the females. The time of attainment of the legal total length of 7 inches in the different lakes ranged from late in the sixth growing season in Nebish and Trout Lakes to the middle of the eighth growing season in Muskellunge Lake. Rock bass of corresponding length from Allequash, Silver, and Trout Lakes were so nearly of the same weight that one curve described the length-weight relationship of the three stocks. Muskellunge Lake rock bass were considerably lighter than fish of the same length from these three lakes, and Nebish Lake rock bass were somewhat lighter than those from Muskellunge Lake.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

Overwinter survival of an estuarine resident fish (Fundulus heteroclitus) in North Carolina salt marsh creeks

The mummichog Fundulus heteroclitus is a trophically important fish inhabiting Atlantic coastal salt marshes, with few in situ estimates of overwinter survival throughout the species range. We estimated overwinter apparent survival rates of F. heteroclitus at the approximate mid-latitudinal species range [coastal North Carolina (USA)] in four tidal creeks that experience variable winter water temperatures. To estimate apparent survival, we fitted a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to daily mark-resight data autonomously obtained from fish marked with passive integrated transponder tags. Creek, year, mean daily water temperature, change in mean daily temperature, fish length and fish condition were considered for effects on the modelled parameters: apparent survival (Φ) (product of true survival and site fidelity) and detection probability ( p ). Modelling showed that water temperature and fish metrics were not related to Φ. Water temperature was directly related to p , indicating reduced fish activity and thus reduced detection probability or poor antenna detection performance at low temperatures. Creek was related to Φ and p , and the creek most open to its downstream estuary (lacking a culvert) had lower rates than the others. Greater loss (fish mortality plus emigration) in this one creek may more effectively transfer production of F . heteroclitus to larger waterbodies via emigration or predation. Conversely, lower Φ may reflect reduced detection efficiency. The results suggest that F . heteroclitus survival is insensitive to variable winter water temperatures typical of thermal dynamics in shallow estuaries in this region of its range. Median creek-specific overwinter Φ rates (range of median values, 2 × 10 −8 , 0.04) were roughly equal to previously published rates for these creeks during the growing season (April–October). At these latitudes and with increasingly moderate winters, the results indicate that natural mortality could arise equally or more so from predation during the growing season than mechanisms such as starvation, direct mortality, thermal morbidity and stress-related susceptibility to predation resulting from intermittently low water temperatures during the overwinter season.

North Carolina↗